Good morning, Good morning! It is 6:28 a little bit less than 2 minutes away from the CPI data report. It's going to be released on the Bls.gov website I Hope that you guys are ready for it very quickly. For those that didn't tune on in to yesterday's video, I Just want to remind you that the CPI data report Market expectation according to Investing.com is 3.3% and we currently sit at 3.4% So according to that expectation, we are expecting, uh, the inflation report to come in lower than what was expected as of right now. NASDAQ Market Looks like it's factoring in, um, a nice little uh push.

So NASDAQ Market is up 3% 29% in the green. Which means that Tqqq is up nearly 1% during this premarket session. so it's factoring in a little bit better than what was expected. All righty.

Okay, and we have 42 seconds left. I Just want to remind you, um, Do Not enter A position Or Do Not be in A position If you cannot tolerate, you know the risk that might come with it, right? So just another reminder when it comes down to that. Um, my intention is to be cash. Wait for the Market's reaction and then see where I can go From there.

Here we go, we have 17 seconds left. I Hope that earn your thumbs up. Please consider subscribing and let's see how the market reacts to this: November 14th CPI Data report Here we go 3 2 1 report should be out and Market should react. Look at that looks like we're going green up 2.6% 3% in the green looks like it is coming in lower than what was expected.

Huge push 1.2% in the green, 3.5% in the green for Tqqq and running. So let's see what this report came out at. We came in at November 14th, increased 3.2% before seasonal adjustment. so this is is lower than what was expected.

We went from 3.7 all the way down to 3.2 our wait. That's not good wait. all items less food and energy Rose 4% Okay, so even Core CPI did go down. so Core CPI um also went down.

Here it goes: 3.9% We're hitting 4% in the green. Wow. Huge push 4.26% Huge push 4.5% 1.5% for Nasdaq 4.73% for TQ Q Again, one of the reminders that I like to uh, give is any reaction tends to be an overreaction for the market, so just a little heads up if you find it to see that it's lacking progress. if you think that this is a fake out and it might begin to pull on back again, just a reminder to look out for yourself whenever you see that to be fit.

So this is all in favor of Tqqq, it's up 4.8% One of the most dramatic reactions I've seen I Mean we haven't seen something like this in a while. Uh where I see it run maybe 2 to 3% but a 4.8% move is something that I have not seen from the NASDAQ M Market um in some time, right? The CPI data reports haven't been as Extreme as they you know. Uh, were last year in 2022 when inflation was really really high, right? This is wild. This is a very very significant move.

1.6% Uh, and Tqqq is up nearly 5% on the day. This is a huge move and again this is all within 2 minutes. So again any reaction tends to be an overreaction. You cannot be surprised if this thing begins to pull on back right.

You will never be perfect. This is something that I love to tell myself and this is something that I love to tell our Lpp beginner. Traders You will never be perfect. Your entries and your exits are not to be perfect, right? It's just to make sense.

So reminder right? If you see lack of progress or you're like hey, this thing's up 4% maybe I might want to either reduce my position size or lock in profits. Just food for thought, right? For those that see it, only reason inflation is going down is because the FED changed the way that they calculate it. Yeah, I mean they've been changing it right? Uh, and that happened a while ago. So it it is what it is.

This report wasn't the first time that they changed the way that they calculate this inflation inflation rate. It's just now that that's the way that they choose to calculated and this is what it came in at: So 3 3.2% for overall CPI and then Core CPI came in at 4% So all items less food and energy? Okay, for the last 12 months, Do you want me to break down the CPI data report? What do you guys like me to break it down? All right, we have and Tesla's up 3.55% During the pre-market session, everything else is up about one to 2% Sure, All right. Hopefully again, you guys can consider dropping a thumbs up and friendly reminder. Um I Love hosting these live streams.

I'll continue to host them for major economic reports and uh, Fed meetings, so hopefully you can consider subscribing as well. But let's go ahead and break it down very quickly. So first off, where do you find this? Just so you guys are all aware, this is a public and free website. It's Uh, Bls.gov CPI and it's from the US Bureau of Labor statistic.

Uh, it's the CPI data report and all you literally have to to do is click on the HTML I Want to see if the PDF is available? PDF is always a little bit nicer. Um, yeah, but it's not available. This is the one that was released in October so that the PDF always comes out a little bit later. Uh, but very quickly.

Again, all I'm looking at. It might look confusing. All of these don't really matter anymore because these are previous months. it's just this month of October Okay, and just like we talked about in yesterday's Uh video right I don't know if you guys remember uh, me talking about that.

the biggest contributor to September and what saw an increase was energy right? an 88.5% increase, a 2.1% increase 2.3 and a 1.5 Those are all significant additions to our CPI data report. Now in October we saw a drop in energy. so again, now it's the biggest contributor on why We saw a drop. So we increased 2.3 but now in October we saw a drop of 4.9% We saw a drop of five and then when we saw an increase of 8.5 we saw a drop of 8.

Okay, um and then we did see a few increases but nothing too too significant. I Would say one of the things that I personally like to focus on is what was the biggest drop and what was the biggest you know addition to this CPI data report and it looks like there was only one that was in the whole numbers and this was utility gas pipe Services Still saw an increase of 1.5% Other than that, everything else is less than a 0.1 um or yeah, less than a one per. When it came down to the biggest drop, we saw the biggest drop to be in gasoline all types A Drop of 5% and then the secondary biggest drop that we saw was energy commodity saw a drop of 4.9% Very simple right? So all line items again they go from food at home that saw um an increase of. 3% Food away from home saw an increase of 4% We saw energy decrease by 2.5% We saw energy Commodities uh decrease by 4.9 Gas all types saw decrease of 5% Fuel oil saw a decrease of 8% We see what is this electricity Services saw an increase of 4% So again it's just these line items right? You go down the list and then I want to see what used cars got.

So used cars saw a decrease of 8% So it is slowing down so this is kind of like cool to kind of pay attention to, especially if you're in the used car market. Um, you know are used cars going up or down or new cars going up or down. All that good stuff right? So we saw a decrease of. 1% on new cars and then a decrease of 8% on used cars.

So what that's telling us is yeah, prices are still dropping for new and used cars, but not as much as they were. so they're kind of starting to Flatline something to take into consideration right? Um, other than that, um it kind of just breaks down. um how this CPI data report is calculated and then we can wait for the PDF to come out and it just shows. Kind of like the pretty picture of the um you know bars of what we're added right and then also it shows.

us the the next one is going to show a nice drop for all items down to 3.2% and then um, core CPI is going to show a little drop down to 4% So very very easy to read. So all madeup numbers buddy, you know I've I've heard that comment so many times. First off, I have no control over what is release right? It's the CPI data report. you know My my thing is I feel like people now days are always looking for a scapegoat, right? Um, and even if they are right, you had the same chance to go long than you did to go short.

So if you're upset with the Market's reaction, then that is just another reason why. To not try to predict something to happen and simply wait to react right? we're all given the same chance. We're all given the same opportunity. If you think that the numbers are going to be so cooked right that what you know, whatever the case might be, it's it is what it is.

These are the numbers that got reported. This is what it is. Nothing. Your opinions don't matter.

My opinions don't matter. You're irrelevant to the market. I'm irrelevant to the market. So why over complicate it, right? It's It's literally super simple.

The market releases this report and regardless, if you agree with how the report is calculated, it influences the market. and that's what's important, right? So I I I Don't even see why waste your time to consume, consume it With that kind of thought of oh man, like these like inflation is not actually going down I mean we'll see right? it all ends up coming out anyways. So if we see that inflation actually begins to pick up later down the road and we see it through, you know I mean gasoline prices from September to October Yes, they did go down. So I mean that goes hand inand where we did see a drop in gasoline types right? and I'm still seeing a drop in in my area.

so it's just something to kind of like put into your real life. Are you seen a rise? Are you seen a drop? Um, and it's very, very easy to see if we see gasoline prices beginning to rise. But then the CPI data Port doesn't match that. Then again, that can raise a couple more red flags, but that's not necessarily the case, right? Isn't inflation down to 3.2% That is correct.

That was what was released today 3.2% and overall CPI Uh, course CPI is at now 4% So coming in lower than what was expected? There it goes. 3.2% And why is the market reacting in such a positive way? It's super super simple. Um I Want to remind you right? the Federal Reserve is looking at these significant reports and using it to decide. Do we want to raise interest rates? Do we want to pause as they've been doing for the previous three meetings? Or do we want to cut rates Which according to Jerome Pow is not even a concern of theirs all of 2023? So as of right now, it's really, are they going to raise rates or are they going to pause and this report coming in lower than what was expected from 3.7 to 3.2 supports the case that yeah, it it makes sense on how the Federal Reserve can justify that they can pause cuz inflation is going down even Core CPI It's not as great as overall CPI right? Overall CPI is at 3.2 now and core CPI is at 4% so they're still not at their target.

So maybe they can justify because Core CPI is still at that 4% Um. but overall CPI definitely saw significant drop to 3.2% Um, and getting much closer to that 2% Target I Feel like some people think inflation is a temporary increase in price? Um, Well, these reports are month over month, right? So it is catching inflation based off of that one month period and that's well. that's what the whole point of these reports are. It's just to capture is inflation going up or down for consumers on this monthly basis? Ricky Does this mean no recession and soft Landing I wouldn't be able to tell you that right? I Can just tell you on based off and again.

it's just my opinion that this report did come in lower than what was expected and it can support the case that the Federal Reserve could pause once again and not need to raise interest rates on the next Fomc meeting in December. But again, this is one of the major economic reports, but there can be many more that are released that don't don't support that, right? And if then that's the case, then maybe they can justify raising rates in the month of December. But as of right now, based off of the CPI data report I want to see this Fed rate monitor tool? It would make sense that this thing would jump up to a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will pause. Oh no and look at that 80.5 and the expectation for them to raise rates is 19.5 My only question for this that I you know this is A and you guys let me know in the live chat.

um I haven't I Don't know. When's the last time that I've seen a CPI data report react like this like this really does look like an overreaction And and it makes sense because yes, inflation is coming in lower than what was expected. but when you really think of it I just really just hope this doesn't come out the way that we we think it might. And it's overall C CPI saw a drop from 4.1 to 4% Okay, so core CPI I mean overall CPI is at 3.2% Core CPI came in at 4% right? Wait, this isn't it.

Okay, here we go. Yeah, all items less food and energy 4% so we went from 4.1 to 4% That's not a very significant drop, and we know that the Federal Reserve can only influence Core CPI So it's great that overall CPI came in lower at 3.2 But Core CPI is the main focus of the Federal Reserve And if they see that wow, this thing really isn't budging when it comes down to Core CPI then at that point I could see why. they might want to right, get ahead of this inflation and try to be hawkish and then justify a rate hike because of how how little the CPI or the inflation report is dropping. Does that make sense? All right? It looks like again, we're consolidating here.

Market hasn't even opened yet. That's the crazy part. I Mean can we see a six or 7% day today? Why not, right? Market's not pulling back. It's not giving in, right? It's holding very very well up here and we'll just have to wait and see.

is the market going to correct itself or is the market just going to continue to? Rally Because I was ready to take a trade right now I Mean this thing moved way too quick for me to initiate a trade from there, but then I'm just going to have to wait for our live trading session with the Lpp team at Market Open. and at that point I can try to make a more informed decision. If I see that the market continues to be bullish, then I'll go with the bulls. If I see that the market begins to retrace I might want to take a step back and wait and see what the market wants to do right.

And this is the part that excites me the most about being cash is that I don't get super opinionated I don't get super emotional. It really gives me peace in mind that it doesn't matter which way the market goes as long as it chooses a direction. I can choose to dance with it right instead of stepping on its toes like I did on Friday So that is going to be my focus for the day. Keep it simple, wait for direction to be clear, and you know, step on the gas if all conditions are favorable.

Okay, um, other than that again, I'm going to be trading live with the Lpp team that's going to be in about 45 minutes right at Market open. Um, you guys, you know, if you're not part of our Lpp team, you don't have to join. but I work with them every single day. It's the second link in the description down below.

It's a onetime payment, lifetime access. And yes, you get to watch me trade live every single day. Okay, so you get to see my entries, my exits, you get to hear my thought process. It's it's all just a raw live trading set like this.

but it's private only for the Lpp team. So imagine seeing me enter and exit just like you see this. and I explain every trade that I take right? That's the whole point of Lpp so you don't have to join. but whenever you feel like you are ready, especially if you're doing this on your own and you feel loss, then again, the whole point of that is to provide you with some insight on the dos and the don'ts right? you get to see my good days, you get to see my bad days.

It's just a raw live session and you get to be a part of the Lpp team and get access to the Lon Library again again, uh as well. So again. Second link in the description down below. Um, and if you sign up right now, you'll be able to watch me trade live in the next 40 minutes.

All I ask you to do is if you do sign up, make sure you watch the first three videos under the introduction section of the course and it will show you exactly where to get access to the Lpp Discord and also where to get access to our daily live trading session. So I appreciate your time. Hope that w a thumbs up. Um, please again, don't forget to subscribe to the channel I'd Love to keep you up to date and like always, let's make sure that we end the year on Green Up! Take.