Hey, what's going on guys, it's Ricky with techbook Solutions And today we are going to be live streaming the Federal Reserve uh interest rate height. So today is December 14, 2022 and in the next four minutes the Federal Reserve will be posting if they're going to be raising interest rates 0.75 which if you want the market to go up you hope it's not 0.75 percent and or 0.5 which in that case Market will go up so we'll see Um, we're excited to catch this reaction. Remember I I Do host these live streams anytime that there's any form of economic report. I'm more than happy to host them here on my channel.

So if you guys are new to the channel, uh, feel free to subscribe. Drop a thumbs up and I'll keep you up to date with uh, this year's CPI data reports PPI data reports, uh, unemployment reports and of course these Fomc meetings. So alrighty I Want to see a show of hands? Um, how do you guys think the Federal Reserve uh will be reporting today? Do you think it's going to be 0.75 or 0.5 percent? Um, I do have a position I Just announced it to our Learn Plan profit group under our Trade Ideas section. So I appreciate you asking.

Point Five Point Five Point Five. There's a couple point seven fives in there I Respect that, right? Um, Obviously, just like some people want the market to go up, others want it to go down. They're shorting the market at the end of the day again. I'm not here to, uh, convince you to be on my same side of things, that, if anything, I want you to be your own person.

So I hope that regardless if the Market's bullish or bearish, right, we're all adults. We all take advantage of what we see fit, hold yourself accountable, Manager, risk manager, position size. don't put yourself in a position that you can't tolerate and congratulate the other side. If they end up winning, who cares? Their win doesn't take away from, you know.

I Guess it does in this sense. Like they win, You lose. If you're bullish and they're bearish, then who cares, right? It's not like they directly took your money, right? It's it's part of this system. it's we choose to take advantage of opportunities We see fit, so just want to make sure that you guys are aware of that.

Let's see. All right? So in the next two minutes, we shall be seeing the market react to this. All right? I'm just posting this one on Instagram Alrighty, should be fun. So I wish you guys nothing but the best again.

If you, if you're an absolute beginner, uh, Market's going to be very volatile shortly after this report. Um, and then 30 minutes after Jerome Powell's coming to me speaking. Um, if there's enough people that drop a thumbs up on this video, I'd be more than happy to, um, host the live stream for you. If not, I can close it out right after I'll leave it up to you.

guys. So just depending on how this uh live stream does, uh, but I wish you guys nothing but the best if you do not want to partake in this, close your position or reduce your position size so you don't put yourself in a position that you can't tolerate. If you're okay with taking on this risk, then great wishing nothing but the best. Um, hope that earned your thumbs up and hope that you can consider subscribing.

Um, all right. So the next couple of seconds it should be released and again I have mine here on the FMC rate decision and then I have the live stream pulled up for the Federal Reserve So um, I'm pumped I'm ready to go. All right, You guys ready, you guys ready. Let's see it all right any second Now Market should be reacting and it looks like it's pulling back.

Looks like it's pulling back. There it goes. It's dropping. Oh, that's not good.

Is that a 0.75 percent? There it goes There it goes. dropping hard from up two percent wait wait wait wait wait wait wait shifting directions now and I hate when it does this because you know a lot of people got stopped out there. Be careful here with your position though. Again, there's nothing wrong with reducing your position size if you can't tolerate it.

Congratulations to all the Bears Right now. there it goes. there. It goes.

there, It goes, there, it. goes all right. It's selling off. All right.

No, it is. It is a 0.5 and Market is selling off. Let's give it some time. Locked in two percent? Yeah, uh.

for some of our short sellers, you might want to be careful with your position. You might want to lock in profits while you're ahead. Just just my two cents. If it is point five percent, it just might take some time.

But Market should be going up. Um, at least that's what the market expectation was. All right. There he goes.

Yep, expectation? Uh. 4.25 to 4.5 Yep. interest rate hike is 0.5 percent. So yep, that's exactly what we wanted to happen.

But Market is pulling on back. It's not anything too dramatic. I Mean we're We're definitely in the red. That was a one percent drop.

This isn't as dramatic as I thought it would have been fed. Fund rate is higher. Okay, all right, let me double check. Nope, we're selling off.

We're selling off. Look at that. selling pressure is high and now we're at a 1.7 loss for Tkq. And again, you can't want all of the good and accept none of that bad.

And there goes. It's selling off a four percent sell-off 4.3 so far on Tqs. Foreign. There it goes.

Yeah, he does speak. Um, he's going to be speaking in the next 28 minutes. I'll leave it up to you guys. Um, if you guys want me to continue to host the live stream while he speaks, here we go.

Foreign signs of a support? No, Well, let's look a little bit more into it. I'm gonna post this so you guys all have access to it in the live chat I Just want to make sure that you guys all have access to it as well. and I'm going to pin it just in case you guys do so. The same statement from the Federal Reserve that I'm reading.

Again, our goal is always to make you guys self-sufficient So not just something that I'm reading and how I interpret it, but you know. Um, However, it is that it makes sense to use a recent indicators point that the modest growth in Uh spending, production job games have been robust in the recent months and unemployment rate has remained low. Again, we don't like that. by we I mean the Federal Reserve does not like that.

Okay, it's beginning to show signs of support. Uh, just be careful. I'm looking out for all of the Bears right now. Selling pressure is.

you know there's no break-up pattern. It's still bearish, right? But if we begin to make higher highs for all the people that are short selling again, I Don't care if you're bullish I Don't care if you're bearish I Just want you to keep some of your profits right I Don't want you to give it all back. So if you do begin to see some higher highs and higher lows, just understand that again, we volatility is going to be very, very high for the next 30 to 45 minutes as we wait for Jerome Powell to speak uh, reflect and supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures, but shows war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. uh, the war related to the events of inflation of rest.

The committee seeks to achieve maximum implemented inflation at a rate of two percent over the next loan. And support The girls, that committee decided to raise the target range of the Federal Fund rate. Okay, so yeah, that committee is anticipation on the audio entire. It's hard to find inflation two percent over time and we'll continue brokerages.

All right? Yep, no selling pressure still there. Saline pressure is still there. Okay, I did share, right? Yeah, you guys have it's on the top pin post. All right.

I I Shared the link with all of you guys so you guys all have access to it as well. Uh, so if you guys wanted to review it or just have access to it for your records, uh, all power to you remember I I want you to know where these things get released and it's on the Federal Reserve.gov website. So um, let's see. All right.

Still bearish, right? And I'm telling you that I I was bullish and I'm okay with admitting that Yeah, it is bearish, even if it is showing signs of a support. Um, you know the time where I would be like, all right? Bears Maybe it's time to lock in profits is if it begins to indicate actual signs of a reversal. Right now, it's showing signs of a potential support. but it's not indicating signs of higher highs or higher lows.

So if I was shorting the market again, I'm trying to put myself in your position. Um, I would be cautious right now. but we're not making higher highs or higher lows. so at this point I still see there to be more selling pressure than buying pressure.

So I'm again right now looking out for all of the Bears uh in the sense that just have that stop loss or have that Exit Plan Just in case, we do begin to see that reversal. but as of right now I would um I'm not going to be like other people and be like yo Bears You better get out, right? It's about to take off just because it would be in my benefit in that case. but no. I want you guys to make as much money as possible if you're shorting the market, you know, all powered to you.

I would wait for a brick of support, but I would be very, very careful if we begin to make some higher highs here. So this is a bear trap again. I'm not here to be a conspiracy theorist. It is what it is, right? Market react to the way that it reacted and um, it doesn't matter if it's a bear trap.

if Market does begin to recover, people that are shorting the market should be aware enough. You should not be shorting if you're a complete beginner. And if the market does begin to recover, that should be a huge red flag for you of hey, I need to get out I need to lock in my profits I need to keep some of those profits in my pocket. But as of right now, no, it does not look.

It does not look bullish, right? we can. We are showing signs of a support, but it's still selling off. Look at that huge red candle right as right now. if I was a bear, I would be holding my position.

There's no break of pattern here, so I'll set an alert here if we break. Above This that would make a little bit more sense. So again, I I am all for you holding your ground If direction is in your favor and trust me right now Bears direction is in your favor. So congratulations to all of you guys! Thank you for showing this of course Donna appreciate you tuning on in and hopefully I earned your thumbs up in this video.

So we have about 3 000 of you guys here again. Jerome Powell Is going to be speaking in the next 22 minutes. Um so if you would like me to host that live stream again, all I literally ask you to do is to drop a thumbs up on this video and if this video gets over 1500 likes, we'll stay live. If not respectfully.

I'll close it out and you know we can all react to it individually. Here it goes: Yep, Market's dropping All right. Thank you. When we'll draw on pal speak, he speaks in 20 minutes from now so he speaks at 2 30 p.m Eastern Time Why the sell-off? Uh so again we just shared the link.

oh no, well not just. but we showed the link I don't know if you see the link on the top pin post to the Federal Reserve uh from the Federal Reserve website. so it's the actual report itself. Um so they just uh, they they raise their target uh for their Federal fund rate.

So um and one thing that I I started to think a little bit more about um you know a big Focus that they continue to always talk about is their soft landing at two percent but also their overall idea of reducing their balance sheet into my understanding that reduction of balance sheet as an even fully taken place yet. So I'm live right now. What's up? Uh, milk and um chips and just fruits? Okay, thank you. Oh and T thanks.

The lot volatility is cray-cray Thank you. for your help as always I appreciate that. Thank you guys Milk! and Gypsy I have an appetite of a six-year-old So now now I'm gonna get roasted because of my diet Uncrustables Oh she knows or game but milk ain't good for you if you're sick I know I have heard that but I Love chocolate milk. Market is Goofy It is what it is, right? I'm not I'm never here to blame or use anyone else as a scapegoat for if I choose to take advantage of an opportunity and again, this is 100 my opinion.

I Think that when he begins his big Market will begin to recover. but I'm not going to go in blindly and begin to step on the gas if Direction's not in my favor. I Just think that you know that people want a little bit more of an explanation. So I'm excited to see what happens if you're too scared and rightfully so if you're If you're a beginner, if you're inexperienced, if you just don't see it because you see it to be too risky I respect that.

Like don't go into anything that you or don't feel comfortable. let the market sell off. If you think that it's going to sell off more but you don't feel comfortable shorting then don't short right? You don't always have to have an open position. We talk about this all the time with our Lpp team.

Any open position is a position. that's open to risk. So again, I'm here to encourage you to look out for yourself. That's all we ever want you to do.

Don't focus on or don't care about what I'm doing. Don't care about what other people are doing, care about what makes the most sense to you based off of current conditions. And right now we're not seeing any progression on actually recovering. We're holding our ground right.

That's great. This isn't even that in my opinion. it's just my opinion. NASDAQ is down 0.55 percent on the day.

I Don't think it's anything too significant. Um. I'm excited to to hear what he has to say if things do get worse. Then again, let's accept the loss.

There's nothing else to it. Why make it more than what it is? It's just one day, one day out of 218 trading days in the year, right? Something like that? 218 222. Something like that don't over complicate it, Don't make it more than it than it has to be. And for those that have a Green Day Celebrate right? I would be more than happy to congratulate all of you guys.

If you guys short of the market, you guys killed it. I'd love to post you guys. Um I don't ever have to be like let's try to not get so offended right? If if one side wins and the other side doesn't, um, it is what it is, right? We're all here for this same exact reason. that's to make money.

Let's congratulate one another now. I Don't need you guys gloating right and be like Ricky look at look how much I took away from you Now it's I like I like hyping our people up right? Um I love typosi and that that is what it is. So I'd rather have that type of approach or mindset rather than if you make money. and I don't you're my enemy.

Yeah, I don't I don't like that one. You crack me up. Learn to play Both Sides Definitely. But again, that comes with time.

It's not something that we'd ever want to recommend for beginners, because if you trade both sides and then Market begins to recover, then now you just took two losses, right? So that that's not always the case either, that happens a lot with either shorting the market or trading inverse. ETFs and um, something to be aware of. something to be cautious of. It's something that we talk about in Lpp.

Like congrats to the person that got my 1K I love that. Uh, any update on the hyper current I don't have a hyper car? Um no. I need to sell a couple of my cars first before I I have way too many cars right now and car market isn't looking the best so maybe it's time to exit that on some of them. Some of my other ones I'm doing pretty good.

um I Do not trade options I appreciate you asking. but I do not. We have 15 minutes left until that Federal Reserve FMC minutes. Um, speech.

So we have 12 How many? Yep, 1200 likes? We're looking for 1500 likes. So again, if you guys want me to stay live I'm gonna give it five more minutes. Uh, just make sure you drop a thumbs up. Make sure that you stay subscribed to the channel, especially if you want to participate in that live chat.

Vowels should be positive as if 90 is gorgeous I agree it's a beautiful card I have a couple of buddies or people I follow on Instagram that have that card and I think it's amazing to to see what they have. Definitely I Just you guys know what I do I focus on on buying at something for a good deal and if it's not a good deal then I just I won't I won't put myself in that position. so I appreciate you suggesting it though. it is a beautiful car.

Do you trade? Forex I Do not I've never traded Forex I Don't trade options I Don't trade for other people I offer one thing and that's my LBP team and I work with them every day. That's that's all I offer literally nothing else. So if you want to learn more about that, it's the second link in the description. If you don't, I'm not going to force you to I just want you to know what I do offer.

So all right. 1.6 here. Wow, that's all I had to do I Just had to ask. All right now 2K 2K I Can ask for that one.

Kidding Lpp baby. You know what it is. All right. we're still getting rejected.

Remember we're We're looking for progression. And this is not progression. The same resistance, same resistance. It is testing for support.

But that doesn't mean anything. right? We're looking for the break above the EMA We're looking for higher highs. We're not getting any of that as of right now. This is Oh yeah.

I Forgot to tell you guys. Um, just for you guys tuning on in. It's going to be active for the next hour to two hours. Uh, and you guys again.

you guys do not have to. You guys know that we just offer things. Um, we have our shop. Tech Bud Site: It's the fourth Link in the description and we're giving away a free trading journal, right? So if you're someone that wants to be able to track your trades a little bit more, you get it for free with every order over 25.

So let's say that you pick up. You know you really want to. Just a Wall Street shirt or whatever it is that you want. Let's say that you want like a trading mouse pad, You pick up a mouse pad.

You need to add this to your cart. So let me go ahead and show you very quickly. you add it to your cart, you add your favorite item. You can pick one item, you can pick two.

Um, and by adding it, it gets automatically discounted. um at checkout so you can see here you get it for free. Okay, so just want you guys to be aware of it. I Do appreciate you guys tuning in.

Um, if you want it great if not again. it also enters you automatically for our giveaway. So we're giving away a new item every single week. We're giving away a PS5, a DJI and then an iPad as of right now.

So yeah, just want to make sure you're aware of it. Foreign Tekbuds.com I Do Not have a PS5 I Actually bought two of them. uh, one for the giveaway and one for what I was supposed to keep and uh I Ended up selling it to my cousin because he wanted a PS5 and I was like you're right I Probably shouldn't play, but no I don't have a PS4 I Just know that they're really popular in that they're really hard to get. Um, so I thought it would be a good item.

You guys know that I like to just spark thinkers up. Some people like it, some people don't. but iPad a drone and a PS5 and some Beats headphones. So we are going live for the Uh Jerome Pal speech.

So all right. I Sold the PS5 to my cousin for 50 more than I bought it for I had to I had to right? I didn't know how much money people could make off of these tank little things I mean I used to sell not PS5 but I used to sell iPhones Remember when I was like 13, 14, 15. so foreign. Not this one.

I had two of them. this one's for our giveaway. Don't worry, it was still one of the cheaper ones. Uh, that was posted.

So yeah yeah. uh. Ricky when you ship to the UK Yeah, if you win, definitely drove an hour plus for a PS5 yesterday. I know I mean especially during the holiday, right? All righty.

Still that same resistance right descending resistance. watch for the break of support. and if we break below the support we're selling right back off. Oh yeah.

so for those that are tuned in a little bit late, I already have something that's pinned right now. but I'm just gonna I'm gonna have to pin this because so many people are asking. Um, here we go. So the FMC did raise rates by point.

five for 50 basis points right? And that's what we wanted. Um, but that's a call. Give me one sec. Let me pin this.

replace big messaging. Can you guys see it up there now? Does it show on your guys's side of things? Uh, here it goes. Watch for the break, watch for the break. Lower lows and lower highs.

So why is it not 0.25 basis points? That's too low. And again, point five percent is still progression. Uh, it's still progress. Sorry, um, we were previously raising interest rates and by we I mean the Federal Reserve They're uh, raising interest rates.

Um, 0.75 percent. So this is progress. It's a loss. aggressive interest rate hike.

So we work right in the sense that we did believe it was 0.5 but as of right now, Uh, Market is, uh, downshifting. All right. There he goes. Selling off.

Not surprised. Isn't raising rates bad? Yeah. But we knew that they were going to continue to raise rates. So they've been raising rates for the better half of this year.

They've been more aggressive for the past, you know, four interest rate hikes at 0.75 percent. So yeah, it is still bad at the raising rates, but we're nowhere close to where we want to be. right? We're at seven point one percent and um, their goal is two percent for core and I think core inflation is at six percent. So it's coming down and it's coming down quicker than expected.

But remember, I mean their job is still to moderate inflation, right? and I do apologize for sounding like this. I um again, I'm just a little under the weather I don't feel that bad I just I'm like losing my voice and uh I like this, like cough we all do myself, my daughter, uh, my girl, all of us. So um, happy that I can go live from being at home. Uh, why are you tracking QQQ and not any other stock I like to focus on NASDAQ and this is a NASDAQ ETF So it's a one for one, right? So NASDAQ should be moving the same way, right? Because if this thing moves up or down, an individual stock can be doing its own thing.

But NASDAQ is a fund of you know, a much larger pool of stocks with a big focus on Tech And that's what um, I have a big focus on. So stop drinking milk. Okay, yes, I'm looking a little bit more into it on the on the uh, what's it called on on why exactly the market is dropping and I mean we are raising interest rates at the rate that we wanted, right? which is point five percent. Uh, but it looks like the peak rate, right? Of all these interest rate hikes, um, is now expected to be at 5.1 percent instead of the previous of 4.9 So after yesterday's CPI, it's just a little bit more than we expected.

And that's why we're seeing this downturn because it's kind of like the longevity of how many more interest rate hikes are we going to have. And at this point, um, it looks like we're gonna have about three more interest rate hikes maybe at point two five percent instead of the expectation of two which was before today, right? Um, and I think it's just yesterday's uh CPI data report Kind of got us maybe a little bit too excited or too confident that they could slow down much quicker than expected or completely stop raising interest rates right? Like one of you guys asked me of, like hey, like shouldn't we just stop raising interest rates all together? Well, there's at one point yeah, eventually. Uh, once it gets a little bit more controlled. but as of right now, it looks like they're still going to want to do about three more instead of two versus what was it previously expected.

So uh, and again, a lot of people get very upset with the Federal Reserve You just have to understand that's their job and their job is to moderate inflation. And yes it does. It does hurt us right? There's a great quote of it's short-term pain for long-term gain. A lot of people are complaining because markets are down and yes, trust me, it is frustrating to like see the markets down this much for this long it's been all of 2022.

But you have to understand like they have pulled back so much that if markets do begin to recover, there's huge opportunity right now. And that's what I Want to continue to remind you guys not to get overly confident, not to get too excited, but just to remember right, short-term pain for long-term gain for all of our investors for all of our swing Traders For those that are trying to, you know, invest maybe a little bit more heavier into your 401ks whatever the case might be I Just want to make sure that you guys are aware of that. So yeah, so 1.7 K likes if we hit 2K you got to do the live stream shirtless for the boys. No, I'm not I'm not doing that.

No one wants to see that. So um, a Ricky speech is making the market reverse right now. Dude I cannot move a market I have 2, 000 or 3 000 people watching. That's nothing in comparison to I would I would need a million people with a decent account size.

So how do we join the giveaway? Uh, if you want to learn more about the giveaway, click the fourth Link in the description down below and you could also, uh, enter or get a free Journal today with every order, just add it to your card so we'll talk about that in just a little bit. uh I am sick. Uh, so all right, one minute until JP So I'm gonna start the speech again I Just want to say thank you guys again for giving me your time of day I Really do appreciate it I Hope that I do earn your thumbs up I hope that you can consider subscribing and if you ever have any questions literally, just send me a direct message via Discord And that's that first link in the description. Don't look at how many followers I Have people get discouraged because they don't think I'm gonna respond sometimes I Do take a lot longer to respond.

You can message me in two places via Discord which is the first link in the description or via Instagram and that's that they're linked down below. I will never message you first those are all fake accounts and I'm verified on Instagram That is my only account I Do not trade for you I only offer one thing and that's Lpp and that's that. Second link down below. Please make sure that you are aware of all the fake accounts that try to message you through WhatsApp or telegram.

I Have none of that. so please be aware of that. Anytime that you see anything like that, just send me message and I'll do everything in my power to try to take them down. So appreciate your time.

and I hope you enjoy. JP is late foreign. There we go I wonder if JP's Still rocking that same rolly from last week or last last speech. Remember that one good afternoon before I go into the details of today's meeting I'd like to underscore for the American people that we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and that we are strongly committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent gold over the course of the year, we've taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy.

We've covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. All right, so we have more work to do. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the Bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyone in particular.

Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Today, the Fomc raised our policy interest rate by a half percentage point. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent over time. In addition, we're continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restricted policy stance for some time. I'll have more to say about today's monetary policy actions. After briefly reviewing economic developments, the US economy has slowed significantly from last year's rapid pace. Although real GDP Rose at a pace of 2.9 percent last quarter, it is roughly unchanged through the first three quarters of this year.

Recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production. This quarter growth in consumer spending has slowed from last year's rapid Pace in part reflecting lower, real, disposable income and Tighter Financial conditions. Activity in the housing sector has weakened significantly, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Prior interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.

As shown in our summary of economic projections. The median projection for real GDP growth stands at just 0.5 this year, and next well below the median estimate of the longer run normal growth rate a Slowdown in growth. The labor market remains extremely tight with the unemployment rate near a 50-year loan, job vacancies still very high, and wage growth elevated. Child gangs have been robust with employment Rising by an average of 272 000 jobs per month Market Selling offs.

All their job vacancies move below their highs, and the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year. The labor market continues to be out of balance with demand, substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. The labor force participation rate is little change since the beginning of the year. Fomc participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on wager wages and prices 1.5 percent for medium projections in the SCP for the unemployment rate Rises to 4.6 percent at the end of next year.

Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent over the 12 months ending in October Total Pce Prices rose six percent excluding the model of Food and Energy categories. Core Pce prices Rose Five percent in November The 12-month change in the CPI was 7.1 percent and the change in the core CPI was six percent. The inflation data received so far for October and November show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases, but it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services.

Russia's war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and has contributed to Upward pressure upon inflation. The median projection: the SCP for total Pce inflation is 5.6 percent this year and Falls 3.1 percent next year, 2.5 in 2024 and 2.1 percent in 2025.. participants continue to see risks to inflation as weighted to the upside. Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appeared to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.

but that is not grounds for complacency. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched Defense Monetary Policy actions are. Guided By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our two percent objective.

Foreign committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds rate by a half percentage Point bringing the target range to four and a quarter to four and a half percent, and we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. With today's action, we have raised interest rates by four and a quarter percentage points This year. we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the Federal Funds rate will be appropriate in order to to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent over time. Over the course of the Year Financial conditions have tightened significantly in response to our policy actions.

Financial Conditions fluctuate in the short term in response to many factors, but it is important that over time they reflect the policy restraint that we're putting in place to return inflation to two percent. We are seeing the effects on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy, such as housing. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the committee decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points today, a step down from the 75 basis point Pace seen over the previous four meetings.

Of course, 50 basis points is still a historically large increase, and we still have some ways to go. As shown in the SCP, The median projection for the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate is 5.1 percent at the end. next year, a half percentage Point higher than projected in September. That's why the Market's dropped at the end of 2024, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2025, still above the median estimate of its longer run value.

Of course, these projections do not represent a committee decision or plan, and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now. Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, and we will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting, and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. We're taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with Supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the long run. Historical Record cautioned strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you I will look forward to your questions.

Um Steve Policeman Cmdc Thanks for taking my question Mr Chairman You just talked about the importance of uh market conditions. Uh, reflecting the policy of restraint you put in in place. Um, since the November meeting, the 10-year has declined by 60 basis points, Mortgage rates have come down, high yield, credit spreads have come in, the economy is accelerated, and uh, the stock market's up six percent. Um, Is this loosening a financial conditions a problem for the FED in this effort and it's fighting against inflation.

And if so, do you need to do something about that? And how would you do something about that? Thank you! So as I mentioned, it is important that overall Financial conditions continue to reflect the policy restraint that we're putting in place to bring inflation down to two percent. Um, We think that Financial conditions have tightened significantly in the past year, but our policy actions work through financial conditions and those in turn affect affect economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. So what we control is our policy moves and the communications that we make. Financial conditions both anticipate and react to our actions.

I Would I Would add that our our focus is not on short-term moves, but on on persistent moves and many, many things Of course, move Financial conditions over time. Um I Would say it's our judgment today. It's not a sufficiently restrictive policy stance yet, which is why we say that we would expect that ongoing hikes would be appropriate and I would point you to the SCP again for uh, our current assessment of what of what that peak level will be. Uh, As you as you will have seen, 19 people filled out the Uh the SCP this time and Uh, 17 of those 19 wrote down a peak rate of five percent or more in the fives.

So that's our best assessment today for what we think the peak rate will be. You will also know that at each subsequent SCP During the course of this year, we've actually increased our estimate of what that Peak rate will be. and today, uh, we're The Sap that we're published shows again that overwhelmingly Fomc participants believe that inflation risks are to the upside. So I Can't tell you confidently that we won't move up our estimate of the peak rate again at the next.

SCP I Don't know what we'll do, it will depend on future data. What we're writing about that is not good. It's our best estimate of what we think that that Peak rate will be based on what we know. Obviously, if data, the inflation data come in worse, that could move up if it and it could move down if inflation data are are software.

Gina Gina smile like New York Times Thanks for taking our questions. The SCP like you mentioned, suggests that the FED will be making another three-quarter percentage points worth of rate increases in 2023.. I Wonder if you would foresee that being in 25 basis point increments, 50 basis point increments? sort of how you see the Speed playing out going forward? That's a good question. I wonder what you're looking at as you determine when to stop foreign? So um, as I've been saying, um, as we've gone through the course of this year as we lift it off and got into the the course of the year and we saw the the how strong inflation wasn't that persistent.

it was very important to move quickly. In fact, the speed and Pace with which we're moving was the most important thing. I Think Now that we're coming to the end of this year, we've raised 425 basis points this year and uh, we're into restrictive territory. It's now not so important how fast we go.

It's far more important to think what is the ultimate level and then at a certain point the question will become how long do we be careful Bears Be careful where above the MMA now and that was no longer the speed so and that that applies to February as well. So I think we'll make the February decision based on the incoming data and and where we see Financial conditions where we see the economy um and that'll be the the key thing. But I mean for that decision but ultimately um, that question about how high to raise rates is going to be one that we make. Looking at our progress on inflation, looking at what Financial conditions are and uh, and making an assessment of whether policy is restrictive enough I've told you today we have an assessment that it that we're not as restrictive enough stance.

Even with today's move and we've laid out our own our individual assessments of what we would need to do to get there. Um, at a certain point though that we'll get to that point and and then the question will be how long do we stay there and there There are the uh, strong view on the committee is that we'll need to stay there. You know, until we're really confident that inflation's coming down in a sustained way and we think that that will be some time now. Why do I say that if you look at, look at the he's not answering the question.

So pretty much what she asked is, you guys in 2023 intend to raise interest rates 0.75 total right? Is this going to be done all at once or in 0.25 interest rate And he's like well we don't know the pace, things get fixed and and demand sells down a little bit and maybe goes back to Services a little bit and we start to see Goods inflation coming down. We're now starting to see that in this report and the last one then you go to Housing Services We know the story there is that Housing Services Inflation has been very very high and will continue to go up actually as as rate as rents expire and have to be renewed, they're going to be renewed into into a market where rates are higher than they were when the original leases were signed. But we see that the new leases that are that the rate for new leases is coming down. So once we work our way through that backlog that that inflation will come down sometime next year.

The third piece which is something like 55 of the index Pce core inflation index is non-housing related core services and that's really a function of a labor market, largely at the biggest cost by far in that sector is labor And we, you know we do see a very, very strong labor market. One where we haven't seen much softening, where job growth is very high, where wages are very high, vacancies are are quite elevated. Yeah, I mean 100. So I think uh, never say good, uh, say goodbye.

You probably can't answer that question now. I Completely agree. Some people get really offended by it because they're asking very specific questions and in his position, he's not allowed to answer those like that that exact question right away because he might not even know the answer, right? Um, if if Economic Daddy does come in actually softer than expected, then yeah, it could probably be sprinkled throughout the year, But if it comes in harder than expected right then, they're going to be have to. They're going to have to be more.

um, front loading those interest rate hikes. So it comes with the territory you described GDP Growth in the steps as uh, moderate or modest I Believe, Um, yet it's really approaching stall speed. Half a percentage point is not much. Uh, you described uh, labor market unemployment rate as representing some softening, but it's nearly a full percentage Point rise.

and that's well in excess of what has historically been associated with recession. Uh, why wouldn't this be considered a recessionary projection by the Fed three? I'll tell you what the projection is I Don't think it would qualify as a recession though, because you've got Positive Growth The expectations in the SCP are basically. as you said, which is, we've got growth at a modest level. Which is to say, about a half a percentage.

Point That's positive growth. It's slow growth. It's well below Trend. It's not going to feel like a boom.

It's going to feel like very slow growth, right? Um, in that in that condition, labor market conditions are softening a bit. Unemployment does go up a bit. I Would say that many Uh analysts believe that that the natural rate of unemployment is actually elevated at this moment. so it's not clear that that that those forecasts of inflation are really much above the natural rate of unemployment.

We can never identify its location with great Precision but that 4.7 percent is is still a strong labor market. If you look, you know you've got. The reports we get from the field are that companies are very reluctant to lay people off other than the tech companies which is a you know a story on Tim itself. Generally companies want to hold on to the workers they have because it's been very, very hard to hire.

So, and you've got all these vacancies out there far in excess of the number of employed people. That doesn't sound like a you know, a labor market where a lot of people will need to be put out of work so that we you know there are channels through which the labor market can come back into balance with with relatively modest uh, increases in unemployment. We believe none of that is guaranteed, but that that is what their forecast reflects. Nick Foreign I Want to follow up on on Gina's question: the decision to step down the pace of rate increase rate Rises appears to have been socialized at your last meeting largely before the past two CPI reports showed inflation decelerating in line with the committee's forecast this year.

You just need to talk about making decisions, meeting by meeting, and being mindful of the legs of policy. Does that mean all things equal? You would feel more comfortable probing where the terminal rate is by moving in 25 basis point increments including beginning at your next meeting. So I I Haven't made a judgment on what size rate hike to make it the last meeting, but you know what you said is broadly right, which is having moved so quickly and having now so much restraint that's still in the pipeline. We think that the appropriate thing to do now is to move to a slower pace and um, you know that will.

That's good news to feel in our way and uh, you know and get to that level we think and and better balance the risks that we fix so that that's the idea it makes. Makes a lot of sense it seems to me, particularly if you consider how far we've come. Um, I But again, I Can't tell you today what the what, the actual size of that will be. It will depend on on a variety of factors, including the incoming data, in particular, state of the economy, the state of financial conditions with the CPR report had come out last week.

but do you think it would have changed some of those those forecasts in today's recipe? No, absolutely not. No. Uh. As a As a just a matter of practice, the SCP reflects any data that's that comes out during the meeting and participants know that they have the they know this that they they can make changes to their SCP during the meeting.

You know well, in advance of the press conference so that we're not running around. But that's not the case. It's never the case that that the Scps don't reflect an important piece of data that came in on the first day of the meeting. Rachel Hi Chair Powell Rachel Siegel From the Washington news, thank you for taking our questions.

I'm wondering if we could talk about the projection for the unemployment rate. Why has the FED raised its unemployment projection? Is it because the model suggest that a higher terminal rate would automatically cause a higher unemployment rate? Or are you seeing signs that the labor market isn't quite as strong as we think it is? Now there's a good one. No, it's not about the strength of the labor market. Labor market is is clearly very strong.

It is more just that. Um, you know by now we had expected we've continually expected to make faster Partners on inflation than than we have ultimately. and that's why the that's why the uh, the peak rate for this year goes up. Between this meeting and the September meeting, you see that you see the fact that we've made less progress and expected on inflation.

So that's why that goes up. and that's why unemployment goes up because we're having to tighten policy more and so it didn't go up by much in in the media I Think But but that's that's the idea. is slower progress on inflation, tighter policy, probably higher rates probably held for longer. Uh, just just to get to where you the kind of uh restriction that you need to get inflation down to two percent another censored in order to get to that number.

How much of that could be caused by layoffs versus vacancies trimming or changes to the labor force population area? It's very hard to say. um, you know there you can look at. you can look at history right in history with you know would say that uh, in a situation like this, the declines in unemployment would be more meaningful I think than than what you see written down there. But why do we think that is the case? So I'll give you a few reasons First, just is that there are there's this huge overhang of vacancies meaning that that vacancies can come down a fair amount.

and we're hearing from many companies that they don't want to lay people off so that they'll keep people because it's been so hard. I mean I Think we've It feels like we have a structural labor shortage out there. Where there are, you know, four million fewer people. a little more than four million who were in the workforce available to work? Then there's demand for Workforce So the fact that there's a strong labor market you know, means that that uh, that that companies will hold on to workers and it means that it may take longer.

But it also means that that the costs in unemployment may be less Again, that we're going to find out empirically. But I think that's that's a reasonably uh possible outcome. And you do hear you know many, many labor economists believe that it is. So we'll see though.

Kobe Thank you. Colby Smith With the Financial Times, how should we interpret the higher core inflation forecast for 20, uh 23 in the SCP Uh? Does that not then suggest that the policy rate currently forecasted for next year should actually be higher than the 5.1 medium estimate penciled in I Think that's why one of the reasons it went up was that Core came in stronger this year, came in stronger this year. Yeah, what you see is is our best estimate as of today. Really as of today, for how high we need to to raise rates, to how much we need to tighten policy to create enough.

Uh, you know, restrictive policy to slow economic activity and slow stuff in the labor market and bring inflation down through those channels. That's that's all that's that is the estimate. Uh, best estimate we make today. and uh as I mentioned, we'll make another estimate for the next SCP And we'll you know.

Of course, between meetings we do the same thing, but we don't publish it hi Victoria Guida with Politico I Wanted to make sure I understand specifically. um, what's going on in the SCP because you all expect rates to go higher. but you're also more pessimistic about what inflation is going to look like next year and I was just wondering? You know, given that we have seen some Cooling in inflation, uh, you know, is it is that primarily because of wage growth that you expect wage growth to be sort of a a headwind. we're going into next year with higher inflation than we had thought, right? So we're actually moving down to, uh, the level that we're moving down to next year is still a very large drop in inflation from where inflation is running now.

Well, more than you guys are ridiculous in the live chat. Remember that the jump off point at the beginning of the year, so it you know we, we're moving down still by a very large chunk. I Don't think it's heavy I Don't think the policies have anything less effect. It's just starting from a higher level at the end of 2022.

So we're getting down I Believe the median is three and a half percent that would be. That's a pretty significant drop in inflation. Um, and you know, where is it coming from? It's coming from. It's coming from the good sector.

Clearly, Um, by the middle of next year we should begin to see uh, lower inflation from the uh, the Housing Services sector. And then you know the big question is when we, how much will you see from the largest, the 55 of the index which is the non-housing services uh sector And you know that's that's where you need to see. We believe you need to see a balancing of supply and demand in the labor market so that you have it's It's not that we don't want wage increases, we want strong wage increases. We we just want them to be at a level that's consistent with two percent inflation right now.

If you, if you put into if you factor in productivity estimates standard productivity estimates, wages are running, you know well above what would be consistent with two percent inflation meal. Thanks Hi Chapelle Neil Everyone with Axios Uh, some of your colleagues have been pretty explicit that they can't imagine rate Cuts happening in 2023. Uh, that's certainly not implied by the SCP, but Futures markets have priced in some easing in the back half of next year. Uh, what's what's your view of the likelihood of any kind of rate Cuts next year, What circumstances might make that plausible? You know our Focus right now is is really on moving our policy stance to one that is restrictive enough to ensure a return of inflation to our two percent, uh, goal over time.

It's not on rate cuts, and we think that we'll have to maintain a restrictive stance of policy for some time. Historical experience: Caution strongly against prematurely loosening policy I Guess I would say it this way. I I Wouldn't see us considering rate Cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to two percent in a sustained way. So that's that's the that's the test I would articulate and you're correct there.

there are not rate cuts in in the SCP for 2023. Escape Steve Matthews With Bloomberg let me ask you about China In the last few weeks, China has abandoned its uh, coveted policy had been reopening pretty strongly. I'm wondering if you see that as disinflationary because you're seeing Supply chains improve or inflationary because it obviously brings a lot more demand globally and improves the global outlook for growth and for commodities prices, right? So you're right: those two things will offset each other. We get weaker output in China.

We'll push down on commodity prices, but it could interfere with Supply chains ultimately, and that could that could push inflation up in the west. It's very hard to say you know how much, uh, how those two will all set each other, and it doesn't seem likely actually that the overall net effect would be material on us. But to your point, China Face is a very challenging situation in in reopening and we you know we've seen uh, waves of covet all around the world can interfere with economic activity. China are very critical manufacturing place for manufacturing and exporting.

Their supply chain is very important and uh China faces a reopening they've You know, they've backed away from their code restriction policies. It could be very significant increases in Covid and we'll just have to see it's a risky situation it, but again, it doesn't. It doesn't seem like it's likely to have material overall effects on us. Chris hi, uh, Christopher and Associated Press Uh, thank you for taking my question.

Um I Wondered if you could comment a bit more about yesterday's inflation report I Mean it showed inflation Cooling in all three of the categories that you laid out at: Brookings Are you starting to see? Are you confident that you're seeing real progress on getting inflation under control? Uh, are you still worried it could slip into some kind of, uh, unentringed, you know, upward spiral? That's a good one, right? So the data that we've received so far for October and November We don't have the uh, some of the we have some remaining to get in November but they clearly do show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases. as I mentioned in my opening statement, it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path. So the way we think about this is this this: report is very much in line with what we've been expecting and hoping for. And what it does is, it provides greater confidence in our forecast of declining inflation.

As I mentioned, we've been expecting significant forecasting, significant declines in overall inflation and core inflation in the coming year, and this is the kind of reading that it will take to to support that. So really, this gives us greater confidence in our forecast rather than at this point changing our forecast. Um, in terms of the pieces, we have been expecting a good inflation to come down as supply chain pressures used. That's happening now.

Housing Services As I mentioned, there is good news in the pipeline. as long as housing new housing leases show declining inflation, that will show up into all right guys. I'm going to leave it here again. If you guys want, uh, it's probably going to be speaking for another five minutes.

I'm just gonna go get some water uh and flush it up. So you guys were too much fun in this live chat I Was seeing some of your guys's comments. Um, you guys cracked me up. but again, um, the way that I view it is, some of you guys were getting bothered by: Jerome Powell Not answering the questions directly or not trying to give proper expectations for up and coming interest rate.

You have to understand that's his job. First off, he might not even fully know. Second, he can't be disclosing everything. Uh, when it comes down to overall market and Market progression as of right now Um I'm actually quite surprised that the market didn't sell off.

I mean based off of the report of you know interest? Uh, the interest rate was where we wanted it was which was 0.5 percent. Uh, it just came in uh with a higher expectation of future interest rate hikes for 2023.. So that's why we began to uh, pull on back. So as of right now, um I I don't know where the market is going to be going.

It looks like it's trying to show signs of a support. uh I would just be very careful. Um, even if the market does recover, it literally is one percent that it has to recover and I think at its peak it was up about one percent. so two percent total.

So um, today was not as crazy as I thought it would be. And one of the things I was looking at is on this one hour time frame, we're literally still trading within this little range of uh, right around like 280 of a support and then right around 295 of a resistance for um, what's it called? Uh, the NASDAQ ETF QQQ So everything was not as expected. So I see someone saying everything was as expected? Uh, no, the up and coming interest rates were not as expected. Actually came in a little bit worse than expected.

a little bit higher, uh, than expected. and I think that's why we're seeing the market. Uh, react. the way that it is is because uh, there's more interest rate hikes to come in the up and coming future.

But as you can see, the Bulls want the market to go up. Um, as of right now I'm taking it day by day. I Still think that now is a great time to begin to prepare to invest in preparing doesn't mean that you have to go all in. Um, but to begin to formulate that trade plan.

So if markets do begin to recover that, you can properly take action. so um, I'm gonna get some rest I'm just gonna like chill today. I'm gonna start catching up on my messages I Already see that I'm getting a bunch of messages on Instagram and on Discord So again, if you want to reach out to me I respond to all of my direct messages first. Uh, link is if you have trading related questions, send me a direct message via Discord but if you have any other random questions or you just want to follow me on Instagram that's that.

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