Yeah, i don't even know why we're doing this you're about to get talked to by a guy with a hello kitty, coffee cup, but whatever i feel bored this morning. So i guess we'll we'll talk, uh, okay, so some interesting things going on uh. First, this is the first time in 38 years that we have seen the bond market do the crazy stuff that the bond market is doing two-year yields and 10-year yields, and basically all treasury yields are skyrocketing. And that's really for a couple reasons.

One because j-pal is not only sounding a little bit more hawkish, but, quite frankly, there is now some murmuring in markets that j pause, weirdness uh is, is becoming so unconsistent or inconsistent. That markets should just price in more rate hikes already, because they're going to come now. Personally, i think the market's kind of stupid for only pricing and seven rate hikes. I i think we're going to see between 11 to 17 rate hikes, and i always get the the stupid comments from from the losers.

In the comments, uh 17 rate hikes you got to be kidding me. It was like well, no they're gon na hike rates. A lot they're gon na, probably over hike and uh, and then they'll have to lower rates at some point. It's not gon na be good for real estate in the short term, and it's probably not gon na be good for some stocks in the short term.

But, ironically, you know over the last uh few weeks here as we've seen yields skyrocket throughout uh about the last week or so week week to a week and a half we've actually seen the nasdaq do quite well. It is a. It is a common belief that, as rates go up, that the nasdaq should do worse, uh should perform more poorly, but statistically that's not necessarily true there's if you plot sort of a. I wish i had the chart for this, but if you do sort of a like a linear regression analysis, you find very little correlation uh between yields going up or down and performance in the nasdaq which is pretty wild.

If you actually look at that way, because usually we think oh well - yields going up means we're discounting future cash flows more and tech's going to suffer yeah. Well, it's not actually how stocks end up performing kind of cool. I mean, i guess, that's some good news. Uh, obviously, some uh frustration about uh j powell's somewhat uh apparent u-turn and choice of words.

Yesterday and uh this week, we're expecting to get a whole lot more of the the good old fed speak in fact, uh. Mr bullard was actually talking this morning, which i thought was actually kind of a little unscheduled because with the schedule of uh discussions coming up from the fed, i tweeted this schedule, and that was powell, uh and bostic yesterday then, today, daily at 11 a.m. California, time and mester at 2 p.m. California time bollard not until tomorrow, but that that changed kashgari, thursday evans thursday and then barking on friday.

What's interesting is ballard just came out and started freaking yapping again and uh ballard's the interesting one: okay ballard's, the only guy who decided to hike a half point and voted against powell and the others uh. He he just came out uh this morning and suggested that hey, you know, screw the 2004 tightening cycle where, in 2004, the federal reserve raised rates 17 times in a period of about two and a half years. So that's 17. 25 basis, point hikes very, very steady, and this is what the federal reserve has told us since january that uh we should be focused on more of like a 2004 style hiking cycle.

Okay, all right! You know that that it's like thanks, then we know what we're dealing with, but now we get a little bit of this u-turn. Uh, let's see here. Let me see if i can get i'm trying to get the 2000 or 1999 and i said she's 1994 hiking cycle up. Apparently i can't freaking get it up.

Come on man, uh, fed funds rate. That's what we want to get geez uh summary of economics there. We go effective, fed funds right. She wish that took forever okay.

Anyway, i want to see the la that hiking cycle from the 90s there we go so take a look at this all right, so, let's zoom in a little bit here see right here. This is the that hiking cycle from 2004 on right here, and this was 25 basis. Point hikes all the way from one percent all the way up to 5.4, and this is kind of what we were assuming well, not just assuming, but what we were told to expect uh and uh. You know this.

This is not exactly what we wanted over here. You know we were oh, i don't think we ever did a thumbnail for this uh that so terribly matters, but we'll do it. Uh is this is what we've been expecting hold on? I'm gon na do a thumbnail here with the hello kitty cup, my goodness geez. All right here we go okay, i did it.

So that's what we were expecting well now. Mr bullard is saying no. No! No don't don't expect that you should be expecting the 1990s style hikes, which was right here and so in 1993 in january of 1994. It looks like we hiked about a half percent.

This is all the effective fed funds rate uh. Sometimes we could change this to just the upper bound, which makes this a little bit easier, but that's all right, we'll just stick with this, we'll go with the effective. That's fine, it's fine kevin all right, so it looks like we had about a half rate hike in january of 94 and uh. Then in march at least another half yeah.

It looks like another half point. This is the effective funds rate, so it's a little harder and then another, oh my gosh. This is almost like a one and a half percent hike in 1994 and really you it looks like you had about three really aggressive policy meetings, three to four really aggressive policy meetings, and then they had the rates a lot higher and stable. What's interesting about this, is jerome powell actually pointed out that hey, we have had these rate increases before without a recession, because that's those are the fears that you're getting here is that they're going to hike us into recession? Jpow refers to the 1996 era to the uh 1980, like mid 19, actually early 1980s period around 83 84 and then the 1994 period, as as times when fed rates were hiked substantially without a recession.

Now you can see that a little bit better right here. So here's here's your 90s hike cycle. I suppose these are. These are the hikes over here that he's referring to in the uh 80s, the early 80s and then in the 60s cycle over here, but yeah i mean you ordinarily, when you see these substantial hikes, you end up having a recession anyway.

So that's why markets are starting to get a little bit more like, oh, my god, recession, anyway, okay, so um. What else do you have? Let's see hungarian central bank raises rates by a hundred basis points, so there's your one percent hike you've got uh trending stocks that i thought was interesting on the stock. Twits cardano is actually trending. Today, uh they're trending, along with upstart nike, aabb abg token, rather uh.

Chargepoint holdings, ggpi, litecoin, neurosense, therapeutics and kimberly clark, some weird ones, yeah i've been at least the other s. The other retail service i follow follows trading flows rather than just social media mentions and in terms of trading flows, seem to be more retail, buys going on. In neo alibaba, american airlines and apple, which i think is really odd - it's like how much do we need to get pummeled in chinese stocks to realize that that maybe maybe there is a danger in the chinese uh uh potential manipulation of the market. But then again, you know the last few days, uh neo's really been bottoming out since about 3 15 right before that fed meeting you go to.

Let's see this is neo. Let's go to baba just issued a buy back, so they should be doing well. Yeah, look at that 10 percent on the buy back, so i mean maybe they're on to something right, so uh ooh carnival reported. I want to see that hold on.

Let's listen for a second i was tested by the company um. I was feeling pretty good and then i realized hey, listen, i'm supposed to feel bad. You know yeah, we had a set at home. Oh there we go they're, not even talking about carnival they're, just putting a little thing at the bottom.

All right. Let's see what happened with carnival, unless they do mention it, there is a um, some polling data published by amex. Today, okay carnival posts full year 2022 loss. They missed estimates.

They came in at a loss of a buck 68.. The estimate was for a loss of 89 cents, that's almost twice the loss. Recent weekly booking volumes higher than at any point since the restart of the great cruise or guest cruise operations carnival, expects ebitda, adjusted ebitda will turn positive beginning in the summer season. Carnival q1 revenue per passenger up 7.5 versus 2019.

everybody's spending, more money, loss of 1.88 billion versus an expected loss of 1.39 carnival ended q1, with 7.2 billion of liquidity. Nice all right! Well, i'm about how much debt, though, well that i do want to see how i actually look, i kind of want to see how much debt they have. Everybody gets so excited about the recovery stocks but hold on a sec. It's always this thing called a balance sheet.

Let's go grab that so we are sitting at okay, usd, let's see here. So, as of the end of 2021, they had total current assets of 10 bill total assets of 53, but that obviously includes the ships and then they have current liabilities of 10.4, which matches their cash long-term debt of 29 billion, my goodness total uh total liabilities. 41.. Okay, yeah, i mean they've got some some difference there i mean if we, even if we just take the current versus cur well current versus current, they kind of wash all their cash with current debt uh and then obviously you know how much are these ships actually Worth uh, so i don't know, and that was at the end of the year.

So who knows we'll see anyway? If uh crypto is any judge as to how the day might go, it seems like it should go. Pretty decently uh you've got uh bitcoin, almost at 43, 000 again, which is quite cool. I mean yesterday we were at 41 000.. You know ethereum was at 28 60 28 40 for most of the day and let's see if i can actually get this to update yeah there, we go okay and take a look at that right here.

There you go btc almost 43 000 uh, just over 3 000 on ethereum and cardano at 96.. Let's go so kind of interesting. You have also got uh gammy listing on a couple exchanges. Today, it's their first listing and um oftentimes.

We can see crypto sort of precede movements in the stock market, which i think is kind of cool. So if we go to let's jump on into cnbc.com and just kind of see what future well, actually you know we should just go to investing. Let's do that. Investing shows us futures more clearly or more accurately.

We should say yeah, that's better. Here we go. Look at that. Future's turned green i'll.

Tell you. If futures have been the weirdest thing over the last two months, they've pretty much always been wrong. They were pretty right back in december, but come like mid-january futures. Just got it wrong almost every single day.

It's it's super annoying. Yesterday these futures were all red like a quarter to a half percent, now they're all green, a quarter to a half percent. Actually, three quarters look at small caps, lead small caps, then dao uh and then the sp. I wonder if boeing's recovering today, you know really kind of terrific playing terrific um terrible.

Is the correct word, um, terrible plane crash in china and a lot of talk that, in order to actually have a plane crash like what happened in in china for a plane to fall like 29 000 feet in a minute uh and somewhere around 30 plus thousand Feet in in a minute, and whatever it was 20 seconds or something like that uh they you know, analysts are suggesting. This is very likely something like uh like either somebody forced this plane to the ground, or you know somebody like died and had a heart attack and fell on the control stick and like pushed the plane to the ground uh, but but uh you know usually like Somebody else would be able to take over or the plane would be able to correct itself, because plane's actually quite good at being able to do that. Uh, unless there's some sort of major mechanical function, but it's quite rare, so um a little sus to say the least that uh chinese plane crash. So i guess i guess we should go, take a peek and see what uh what boeing's doing yeah here we go.

Ba, ah well still down time a little bit in pre-market, oh well, and then what was it yesterday yesterday they had a uh four percent day to the downside, all right, so we talked about bollard, baller, being a little fussy, some people, some people are actually now Talking about the potential that the federal reserve may not like it, that the stock market is going up and that they are purposefully coming out more aggressively because the stock market rallied last week after the fed meeting and so now, they're like crap stocks rallied. We need to go out there and uh. You know drive these things down a little bit. Oh man, you know it's.

The biggest legal stock market manipulator ever is jay powell and his uh and his comrades. Okay, that's probably offensive to say now. I shouldn't call him comrades uh. You know you could say that maybe like two months ago now, you can't say that anymore.

But that's okay, because i got the hello kitty cup. Hmm thanks for the nine dollar donation and forty thousand dollar cop donation, cop currency, uh, and it looks like you had a question. I don't want to see it here all right. Let's see what we got here the other day.

You said, if you were looking to exit the market, you thought the 25th should be a good day to do it. Well, i see i actually have that written down, because i i write down my little predictions, and so this little piece of paper has been sitting on my desk uh since march 14th. This little paper says sell between march 16th and march 25th, uh that that would be now uh. I probably won't, but i did write that down as like a potential celsig uh.

Just because i thought that it would be a period there would be a period of calm and that during the period of calm we would see uh stocks rally and uh. They have been rallying they've, been doing quite well uh. You know even specifically, and i wrote down tesla and consumer discretionaries and industrials. I wrote those down tesla's been doing quite well, i mean look at it and it's just you know been retracing quite well almost back to that 50 retracement, which is uh 968 we're.

You know almost almost tried to push into the open there a little bit a firm's not having a great morning. It had a decent day yesterday, but not having a great morning today mullen you know, here's this one is look at this yesterday. It ran all the way up to the 23.6 fibonacci retracement line got nearly instantly rejected off that line. Now that rejection came in about the same time that j-pal was talking, so i can't tell if it was literally the 23.6 line that freaked traders out or what but uh, but it got rejected straight off of the line.

Now, i'm gon na get rid of it. Get rid of that there we go, which is kind of interesting, how the lines just always freaking work. It's scary! It's very scary! I don't know, i don't know what to say about it. I really don't.

April 18th is tax day. Yeah everybody loves tax day, oh by the way this video was brought to you by streamyard. You want professional live streaming, software make sure to check out streamyard by going to metkevin.com streamyard, which is kind of cool, because uh multi-stream you want to multi-stream to twitch or facebook or twitter. You can do all that.

It's kind of awesome at the nasdaq, it's utility owner and operator, global water resources, jim mentions boeing and the latest indications uh do show uh no survivors in that crash in china they did tweet. Yesterday, jim our thoughts are with the passengers of the flight. Like 90 green yeah all right well, i suppose i guess we could go, take a look to see how things are actually opening up. I guess look at this owlette i'll tell you.

Owlette has been doing an interesting move. It's like back over three bucks. Uh nike did decently on their earnings. Now these are earnings from you know, obviously, three months ago, so the end of the year uh, which i think does give a little bit of a misleading portrait of consumers but uh.

You know i'm very curious to see how they end up doing going forward, because i do think if people are going to save money and spend less money on consumer discretionaries, nike's not going to be the place to be, but the last quarter was great. It showed it showed a lot more pricing power than i expected. I expect that pricing power to go down when people start cutting on consumer discretionaries. You know looking back right.

Earnings right now are so dated, because they're telling you about like black friday in december, everybody felt rich. Then it's so different. Oh look! What's going on with upstart upstart's supposed to be the trader stock, what is this? What is this crap? Okay? It didn't even care about that line. Oh that's! That's embarrassing! Uh! Look at that! 8.5 to the downside.

It's just nuts uh affirms yeah not enjoying opening up either. You know the the first like the market open is such a crap shoot. You know i i personally try almost never to make like decisions and mark it open i'll, go into market open with decisions made from the prior day, but i'll tell you watching. Market open is just entertaining because it's just like you have no freaking idea, uh.

What the market's gon na decide to do like who knew that cardano was all of a sudden just gon na spike. I mean i'll. Take it things going back to a buck. I like it as soon as it goes to a dollar i'll have 600k and even 600k.

It's because i got 600 coins, uh, so sorry, 600 thousand coins anyway um ethereum, btc, obviously moving. Oh solana just crossed uh 90. good for them all right, xbang neo, oh embraer, you know, embry air is just another one of those beat up airlines very, very low uh volume as well right now, um at least on that market open. But we've really started seeing them recover from this 10 range as well you're.

Seeing a lot of these companies recover from about that uh, you know zero percent fibonacci line to about 23 to 30.. There we go there. That gives you an example how we're just now breaking over that 23.6 phibi. Let's see how tesla's deciding to open up this morning, it's everything's just a mess.

I was actually doing well yeah. It showed it as one percent a little messy there on the candles, but who cares anyway, uh yeah first tesla from berlin being delivered today. You know i would have loved to go to that, mostly because i uh speak german and i have a german passport. So it would be very easy to travel, but apparently it's like a private, mostly private thing, where just uh some people are getting.

Oh, it's frozen. Mostly some people are getting deliveries. I think it's like 30, something deliveries or whatever um, and then i think olaf schultz is supposed to be there, which is kind of cool elon's supposed to be there. It's pretty cool, uh china announcing even more support for their broken economy.

You know, i i think it's crazy uh that uh, you know china's china was so instrumental in creating the evergreens and inflating this property debt bubble huge. I mean hugely instrumental. They wanted all of these properties built. They wanted affordable housing.

So so, listen to this, you get one party rule that says we need affordable housing, that's it. Let's go build new cities and they actually frickin. Do it? Okay, imagine that in california we need affordable housing. It's a it's a affordable housing crisis in california.

Imagine you know the government just going all right, we're building new cities there there there there and all of a sudden you've got 500 000 new homes. Well, damn that would do some good for the affordable housing crisis problem. Is china went too far? You know because there is this thing called a market, and so they went too far and built too many and then all of a sudden china's like wait a minute now y'all got way too much debt, let's, let's clamp down on how much debt real estate companies Are allowed to have and then the real estate companies are like. Well we're just doing what you all said.

It's nuts, that's all i can say i i don't know i'll. Take the uh i'll. Take the free market over know that well the free market with an asterisk. We got jay powell he's our asterisk, so the the somewhat free market we'll take it over uh the pretty much, not free market china, uh yeah.

There you go, california's homeless should all just move to china. Then all these vacant buildings could could have argued. You know what gavin newsom gaviway just needs to make a deal with xi, jinping and and uh ship them all over uh, except we don't have any ships because they're all being used for a really expensive freight right now. So i don't know who's gon na pay.

Their tickets - maybe carnival - maybe you know, carnival cruise lines. They expect to be profitable this summer. Maybe that's why um elon tweeted danke deutschland exactly at market open? Oh, is that true uh, that's cool uh notice, how he didn't say duncan california yeah. He did that's cool yeah, awesome, ah, all right, so all right, anywho, yeah tesla likes.

Obviously this uh. Let's look at uh how these uh commodities are doing, especially oil, i'm still waiting to short oil. I really want to do it. Ah, it's good yeah.

I don't know is it is this? Is this a peak kind of uh relaxing a little bit? Let's try, let's see like xle was, was another one that ran like crazy yesterday, all right all right! Here's your day chart on xle almost almost up how about uso. Yeah down a little bit, i was really waiting for about this range right here and we got rejected perfect perfectly off of it. I even said it on in a video yesterday i said i know there we go. I hate anyone does that.

I even said in a video yesterday uh, so you got ta press lock on these things, otherwise that crazy stuff can happen anyway. Uh yesterday, in a video i mentioned that uh. If, if we would just run into the come on weeble, if we would just run into the 61.8 to 78.6 region right here, this is where i want a short oil. So i don't think i think this was peak fear right here, the 78 to 100.

So we're not going to get that again, but right here that would be juicy well, it's just an idea. So far is that the 95fo that used to be my area code and hud 8's catching up now that we're actually seeing uh some movement here, zim ooh ooh, what's happening here at zim, wait a minute. Why is it at? Oh, probably because of the dividend now this is really interesting. So zim shows that it's up five percent, but they paid a dividend of like 17 bucks right, and so it's kind of interesting that it shows it's up while at the same time it's down 14.

It. What's also very interesting about it is i am shorting zim, but i know i have to pay the dividend so right now, i'm i'm not really, i'm probably down like three bucks, it's kind of a bummer but we'll see how long we'll see how long that stays Up now that the dividend's been paid, we shall see it's a shipping company by the way, anywho uh all right. So, let's see here meet german kevin. Please 9999999, no 954! Broward! That's right! Shift going ape, bought it hard at 170..

Oh that's good! Well, i like that, it's going eight. Let me see here, sft yeah, look at it run. I like that you're right, you're, uh, you're, really moving between uh this floor. That was somewhat drawn over here.

I mean look at that at one point. We went under a buck fifty. How stupid is that and uh it's it's really running, and these are not even retracement lines. These are just good old, good lines, uh so well.

I hope it keeps doing it because i have a. I have a little small call position on shift so we'll see uh anyway, okay. Well, let's see what what else the let's see what the suits are up to. Oh after we we got to check out rates.

Oh mortgage rates should be fun to look at yeah. Oh look at that. It's up another .05. Today, oh we're going to we're going to three percent rose.

We are go, i've been saying three percent for uh for a month and a half and everybody got mad at me. What do you mean it's going to three percent: that's stupid: okay, dude, okay, like we're going back to five percent mortgage rates, whoop and then boy like no we're not going back to five percent, that's stupid! Where would we go back to five percent yeah yeah me me and then this is your mortgage rate? Chart i'm sorry hate to say it. I hate to say i made money watching those things go up because i shorted treasuries. Oh, oh, well, um, okay! So then we were going to look at the suits, see what the suits are saying: okay, m la the suits treasuries are extending their shell off and are likely to be weighed down by mortgage originations yeah uh bullard, says 1994.

Is the model wants a 275 basis? Point hike in 2022 that would bring us to about well 2.75 to 3 percent. He favors a double barreled approach to tightening by reducing the balance sheet and hiking aggressively. Oh, you got ta love when bullard comes out doesn't actually seem like the market really gives a crap about bullard, though uh i think it's powell who makes the market nervous uh uh we go. Powell makes the market nervous and look at this.

This is your qqq right here, a little tiny, little red candlestick for me now, but hey i'll i'll. Take that as an open i'll tell you like. I say i say this to course, members too the morning is the market open. Is such a crap shoot if you do not have your uh plan set for market open, don't make your decision based off how the stupid things are moving the first five minutes? Okay, if you go into market open with a decision, that's okay, uh! I i think it's a riot anyway here here goes mullen, uh, almost down ten percent.

You know i said yesterday. I will not buy this stock because as soon as i buy this stock, it will collapse, and then i encourage people to set a trailing stop on that sucker. And i kid you not. We are now going to go over to my twitter profile, which you should follow me.

It's at realme, kevin and uh see look at that. There's me with a selfie of the ukrainian flag. I couldn't fit my whole face, so that's all you got but anyway, if you scroll down to right about over here, look at that 21 hours ago, i'm gon na heart it because it's a good tweet dear mullen momentum, investors congrats on your successive 20 to 30 Days, i have good news for you. I will not be buying it because the day i do is the day it crashes, so i'm not buying to protect you.

P.S set a five percent, trailing stop to capture the up but limit the down. Hashtag, not advice. Well, i mean: had you done that yeah you, you would have, you would have sold. Let's see, we hit one point or four point four point.

One eight times point nine five uh. What the heck is that you would have sold at three nine. You would have sold at three dollars and ninety cents. If you had set that five percent limit, you would have sold right there right there come on man.

You tell me that's a bad idea: hey, maybe it'll go to the moon. Again, i don't know all right. So uh, what else do we have? Oh we're gon na see what else the suits are doing. Well, i guess we could do that in just a second, let's, just spy spy spies up, two-thirds good uh.

Does that mean that one little red candlestick was just a joke? Yeah it was it's so stupid. I love it. Oh tesla tesla's going all funny over here. It's still up.

Almost a percent and apple's been doing pretty decently, as well apple's kind of been straight up since uh. Well, like 152, i want to say it hit bottom uh, 150, okay, close but yeah i mean the last few days have been great for these guys charge point one of the trending stocks is only a point: uh eight five percent. Today, that's boring. Okay, let's see what else is going on here: okay fed could be uncomfortable with stocks rallying further yeah.

We'll talk about that. It wouldn't surprise me, i kind of think the fed liked it that stocks were coming down because it's a way of de-risking finance. You know when you have over overly excessive market valuations, you create too much too much uh. What's it called um too much risk people start speculating on margin too much, and it just sets everything up for a big bubble burst.

Ukraine raises equivalent of 206 million dollars in fourth quarter war bond auction war, bonds, wow didn't think i'd ever have to talk about war bonds uh in the near future, uh before the whole crane stuff flood of mortgages will keep bonds under pressure. London's housing crisis plan raises deadly flood risk. Okay, okay, all right, let's go see what else is going on elsewhere, i mean so far. I think we've covered lots of the goodies.

Okay. Let's, let's see what else, what let's see what the the baron people are saying. I don't know sometimes they piss me off. Sometimes i really like them.

Crypt at night, inflation is at its highest level in four decades, major problem for the performance of stocks and buns. I don't know performance wise. We've been good uh, it's time to make some things in your portfolio: here's how okay, let let's see, let's see what your recommendation is: baron's hashtag, not financial advice, kevin's, not financial advice. Coupon code expires in three days.

For decades, investors relied on the 60 40 mix of stocks to bonds, blah blah didn't disappoint, produced a total return of about nine percent a year with inflation. Now surging, however, and interest rates on the rise, it may be time to rethink that order. Adding alternative investments is the time to count. Is it a way to counter that blow? They include hedge funds, private equity, real estate.

I always think it's interesting that real estate is considered an alternative investment. I mean i get it: it's not like a security or whatever uh, but but really everyone should be owning real estate. Like everyone, oh yeah, the market is turning down red a little bit right now, uh, that's all right! This is stupid. I'll tell you! The market open fluctuations are the stupid things.

Stupidest thing is ever everyone should own real estate every single day and our course member lives. I answer real estate questions and we try to do a real estate deal analysis, but sometimes there's not always one. There uh and uh it's really because everybody should own real estate. You know, like i don't know somebody give me a uh, an objection to owning real estate and and don't don't say, uh it's too expensive, because if it's freaking too expensive then move to a poor area or somewhere you can afford it a poorer area uh.

But you got to get into only real estate, liquid alts blah blah blah detroit's actually doing quite well, i mean they are. They are really expanding quite nicely many investors think of alternatives. It's fully liquidated and blah blah blah. It's kind of boring, um, all right, yeah, detroit's, really growing out well from the center of their uh, their city and they really cleaned up the the city.

Well, yeah. Look at that! Look at that fall right back to that 38.2, getting a major catastrophe. You know! That's called insurance too much maintenance man. What kind of dump property are you buying or even remotely thinking about owning? If you're worried about too much maintenance? Do you realize that of the 25 properties that we have the amount of maintenance that we do after we fix them up? Maybe maybe is like 400 a year dude come on man 400 a year per property on on what 25 million dollars a real estate? That's stupid, it's nothing! It's like! Oh, no, like.

Let me think of some some recent ones, um, there's so few. I can't even think of one uh. I want to say. Maybe in january we had to do a stove for somebody and people were like.

Oh that's! It it's a stove like what stoves are you freaking people buying they're 499 with inflation, they're 580 dollars, and you pick them up at lowe's, and then you use a coupon code while you're at it, and you stack it with getting cash back on your five percent. Offloads rewards card it ain't that freaking, hard, you're, gon na say: maintenance is a joke. It's a joke! Ah metaverse land. This is the biggest fraud ever uh us rethinks uranium supply for nuclear plants after russia's invasion.

Well, hey, you know before you show an oil go along uranium, you know uh. I do think it's wild that uh that the the the eu is stocking up on iodine pills. Did you pick reels if i had to only pick one? Would i pick real estate over stocks? Yes, because i can guarantee you, i could get real estate under market value guaranteed like no no question at all. I guarantee you.

I could get real estate under market value. Does that mean i might uh make less money in real estate if you don't get lucky and like tesla like quadruples sure you know, i mean like if, if tesla quadruples well, that that's amazing, but you know it's already almost a trillion dollar company. So you you don't want to make bets that are too outlandish. Uh yeah market see this is literally proving why i hate market open.

I hate market open because of this like see. Look at this, like i said if you went into market open with a strategy, that's fine! But if you based your gaming today in the stock market on what the market did in the first 10 minutes well, at least on qq, you got screwed on tesla. You got screwed, you know uh, the spy is actually holding up aydah's holding up, but it's also showing a little bit of a rotation, uh and and upstart. I guess, is holding up, but it's also not.

I don't know whatever uh yeah look. I actually do like the extra debit card yeah, because i i think it's uh, you know i i think it's such a really cool way, not to have a credit card because a lot of people they get a credit card, and then it's like a license to Spend it's like, oh yeah, let me just um, you know i'll just pay that off later i'll max that out right now, uh, i feel i could make greater returns investing in the stock market all right hold on a sec. I feel i could make greater returns. Investing in the stock market, i live at home because you feel my 45 000 salary with no debt still would not be able to survive off in real estate.

You're. Absolutely right - and you know what the biggest problem is: the 45 000 salary. You got to fix that if you are here listening to these live streams, i guarantee you, you are more capable than making 45 000 a year. Go figure it out, get a license, become a cpa.

Get a series license, you know, go work from it for an investment bank. I guarantee you, you could double your income this year. If you made a priority, doubling your income rather than trying to make another three grand on stocks, so you could say you made another. Eight percent of your salary this year it doesn't make sense.

Forget stocks, learn what you can, but if this, the biggest thing i think you could learn right now is is get off of that 45k salary. All right! Well, yeah! What's neo doing, i don't know yeah tech's, awesome too neo yeah, i mean it's just the market open. It's a crap shoot, oh dude, somebody's 23 years old here, making 80k in personal training you're making 80k in personal training. That's that's impressive.

People must like you. That's really good good for you, that's really good um see. I think this is also a big problem is in our society. We want to play the relative game like this question.

How much should a 20 year old be making dude your profile picture? Is you in a suit if you're wearing a suit and you're a suit, you should be making 100k if you're putting a freaking suit on every day. You should be making 100k okay or more, like you know, somebody look. I was walking around in gym shorts and a t-shirt in uh manhattan, the financial district of manhattan, i'm walking around the financial district of manhattan, again, jim shorten t-shirts, t-shirt, one t-shirt and uh. Somebody comes up to me uh and my mind.

You i'm in the financial district thinking to myself, man what would be like to live in manhattan. I've always wanted to work on wall street right. I'm walking around the financial district and this girl comes up to me, says, meet kevin and i'm like. Oh, i was trying to go incognito you, yes, yes, but but i don't look like because i was just wearing stupid nonsense, clothing and i think i was sweaty from having just gone on a run.

I'm like oh, this is embarrassing uh if she's like no no kevin. I i don't care, i don't care. I want you to know it's because of you. I'm working on wall street.

You told me to get a better job, and so i quit my job. I studied what i needed to do to get a job, and now i work in that building right there. It's deutsche bank she's, making 130 to 145 000 a year now and she's working in manhattan on freaking wall street, and i'm like that's what i wanted to do. That's really cool.

It was just amazing. It was really incredible, uh anyway, uh. Okay, so look at this stupid market like this, how how could you make any decision and mark it open? It's one of the reasons i stopped doing. The market open live streams because it's just like it's so irrational, it's dumb! Just like wake up an hour later.

You know have your coffee an hour later and go that's what happened this morning? Okay, um! Oh hello, kitty, coffee, it's really good uh! Anyway. So what's your strategy for getting undervalued houses? This is an easy one, find the stinky nasty ones that nobody wants to buy people like yeah, it's gon na cost, you, okay, listen i'll! Tell you the stupidest thing i would ever hear when i was standing inside of homes holding open houses, especially ones that were dated from like, and this sounds crazy because, like the 90s isn't that bad? But people still think it's dated i'd be in like a 90s home, sometimes i'd even be in a dude okay best example. Yet, okay, i'm standing! Oh here, you know what i'll. Let me see if i can pull it up, because it's it's just it's so great! Uh, let's see here, this is freaking hilarious.

If i could, i might not be able to uh, but i will try anyway, it's so dumb. No, no! No! You got to see it. I i got it i logged in. Where is it all right? This is from 2019, which is just insane uh.

It feels like the last three years have just evaporated, but this is a good one, it's worth seeing because it answers that question somewhere come on. Oh apparently, i can't find it before this is really annoying now, whatever uh, i will look one more time briefly and if i can't find it, then i will just explain what a rip-off yeah, i guess not all right whatever so anyway, so i'm standing in this House uh, it's it's a showing with like uh. You know: 50 other people walking through this house. It's a house built in 2003.

So it's fine. It's got fire sprinklers. It's got insulation on the walls. It's got a 50-year roof.

It's got. You know a beautiful sewer line: copper plumbing uh. You know a 200 amp electrical panel, best strongest foundation. You could ask for out here in california, i mean it was absolutely phenomenal and these people walk in and they see the old kitchen cabinets and they're like.

Oh, my gosh, this the carpet is so gross and the bathrooms are, must be original and there's mildew in the showers and and the the kitchen needs to be reunited and eat it. It's disgusting. This house needs a hundred, fifty thousand dollar renovation and i'm i almost laughed out loud when i heard it and i'm like y'all have freaking morons. This house needs paint some new caulking, it's done, maybe a carpet cleaning or you know what we'll even replace the carpet.

So anyway, i buy the house, spend 20 grand on it. I buy it for 6.55 spend 20 grand on it just doing little stupid cosmetics by the way, the day before it closed escrow, there was a water leak because the seller screwed up the water line in the refrigerator to store destroyed the flooring. So i got free flooring, which i wasn't even going to replace the flooring, but i got free brand new flooring anyway, which was beautiful. I got a check for like 12 grand to replace the flooring, so thank you uh, but that was just downstairs.

I had to replace the carpet myself anyway, so so i buy this place for 655 grand after somebody says you got to put 150 grand into it. I uh i spent uh 20 on it, so i'm into the deal for 675 000 places worth three years later. Now, a million dollars. How do you make money in real estate come on man all right? Here's this stupid market! Look at it like again the most unpredictable i mean.

Well then again i mean you could just look at that 38.2 line and and know that if it's gon na bounce, it's probably gon na bounce off that which is kind of what happened. Uh, a firm is actually you know doing a little bit of some love moves here. I i don't. I don't know uh alibaba's doing its buyback.

Okay, gamestop! Oh look even alibaba bounced off of its line. You know oftentimes the line. I mean the only line that wasn't working today was upstart. I don't know what happened over here, but upstart just uh slipped right below it over here in pre-market and who knows maybe it'll come back to it.

Volatility index is almost low enough again for me to actually close my uh, my short on the vix. I've been shorting the vix since like up here at like 34.. Oh thank you not a huge position, but i'll still i'll still take my victory lap on it. Uh, maybe i should close the position.

Uh, whatever hey trade desk went positive, good. That's that's! Gon na be uh. That's gon na be a player for this year. I think okay, uh, don't uh it's seven o'clock.

Don't we get some manufacturing news now? Isn't that what's coming out now? No, i don't think it's out yet i thought we were supposed to get something out of 10 unless that was 11.. I don't know, let's see here, oh i can just pull up the eco calendar hold on a sec. Let's see here, let's look at sick economic calendar, okay, yeah richmond, manufacturing index prior one survey, two yeah, it just came out. I don't know what is this manufacturing composite 13..

I mean that sounds better uh. Let's see here, rich richmond manufacturing survey print conditions. Okay, let's see richmond fed survey, the fed district manufacturing activity improved in march. According to the most recent survey, the composite index increased from 1 in february to 13 in march, with increases in all three composite indices: shipments volume of new orders and number of employees, notably the shipments index increased from negative 11 to 9.

In march, the volume of new orders also increased from negative 3 in feb to 10. In march this. That shows economic strength. I, like the sound of that, the order backlogs turned positive again in march after being negative in february, vendor lead time continued to be high, indicating most firms were still reporting growing lead times.

The index for both finished goods and raw material inventories remained low and firms expected that to persist for the foreseeable future in general, firms continue to report, increased, hiring and rising wages. Additionally, the index for the average work week increased, notably in march the average growth rate of prices paid, remained elevated, but continued a three-month downward progression. In march, however, average growth in prices received uh inched up in march interesting. Oh i'd actually say that i mean that sounds like a pretty decent survey to me.

You make a video about the positives of solar panel. Look, let me put it this way if your electricity bill ain't over 250, don't ever talk to me about solar panels again and if it's over 250 dollars and you're in a sunny area, then buy them or or uh finance them, but don't don't do these, like 20-Year bullcrap lease garbage scams, terrible terrible rip-offs. Anyway, i mean that manufacturing survey is great. Well.

That might be why the markets also ha. I don't know it depends. Is it seven o'clock yeah yeah yeah, look at that! Look at that folks, seven o'clock right there and look at where we get the inflection point right. You get these much stronger bars over here than you had uh right here.

When the survey came out, they like the survey they like it uh they like it. A lot i mean look at that tesla now 1.45, it's like i say, mark it open as a crap shoot, do not make your decisions based on what the stupid market does in the market: open um but anyway, so how's gold been doing i'm not in gold Anymore, but i'm curious hey: what are you doing? Gold yeah? Well, i mean commodities, always come back down. It's kind of wild wow, a firm went positive. Oh, my gosh jay pal he's probably trying to get the market to go down, and yesterday he's like getting the market to go down again and today, he's probably like it's not working, send send bullard out again release the bullard.

Yes, we need three percent rates. You know i kind of this is stupid, but i can't help - but i was thinking about this yesterday - i'm like the whole market's like freaking out over this 50 basis, point hike right and i'm thinking to myself, like imagine, we're all at a party and the party's Kind of like weeded out a little bit like the loser. Weird kids have left the party because they've lost like 90 percent of their portfolio, so they've left. You know the people who could like adjust the dance moves with the flow of the dance floor, like they're.

Still around, like you know, you guys are still here and gals and i'm still here and and so we're we're on this dance floor, dancing and and jerome powell, all right 50 basis points and and then you know, the the the suits and and some of the Weird kids on wall street and then 30 seconds later all right back to party it's like who freaking cares like is it like? Are we really going to care about a 50 basis? Point high, i think not. Are we really gon na care about going back to two percent or three percent? Probably not is real estate gon na care, yeah, probably in the short term uh, but the economy's not doing that terribly uh! It's it's not! You know it's it's gon na, be though we are gon na price in fear, though, and uh. I do think that war is something that is gon na, reduce uh consumer spending. I i actually, i really do think that the russia ukraine invasion reduces the chance of a recession, because the fed is going to be more dovish than they would have otherwise been.

I think they would have rug pulled us if it weren't for uh. If it weren't for war, they would have rug, pulled the crap out of us and that would have forced the recession potentially, but anyway, things change. I guess so. Um, okay! Well, i'm kind of tired of scrolling on this stupid stuff.

Let's see what the suits are saying now, so that was interesting. The richmond survey looking for any big movement in tesla stock after berlin. No, you know i i tweeted about this actually, and i don't think gary black liked it because you know he's he's big old, tesla, testable and uh. Where was it? Oh i'll find it it's worth.

Looking at i like how hashtag earthquake is trending in california, again so dumb uh every time, there's like a three percent, three, a factor three shaker or whatever this goes trending, oh yeah. Here it is so gary tweets. Tesla has run up 18 since monday versus the nasdaq in line with their beta of about 2x. Wouldn't surprise me to see: tesla traders take profits next tuesday, after berlin's opening, fine traditional thesis, uh could make sense.

I replied seems, like traders are trading macro here. No tesla's low was on putin's invasion, not on tesla news. I still believe that's true, i i i don't really care about berlin. I think that that's priced in uh, you know i don't.

I don't really care about really any of the little micro news from coming out of the companies right now, unless it's just like bad news and you've got to get out of the company because they suck or whatever, which is possible. You know some companies just turn to crap, and then you got to get out. You know it's kind of like people are always like. No just just huddle and dollar cost average.

You know dollar cost averaging was not designed for haudling dollar like like individual stocks. Dollar cost averaging is an excuse that uneducated investors, who don't use fundamental analysis, used to help with their stupid stock. Picking dollar cost averaging was designed for passive, investing into index funds. You get paid, you don't care about the market and you just throw your money into the spy or the nasdaq and you go gg whatever the market.

Does i don't care honestly? That is probably the best thing that 99 percent of people could do, but to dollar cost average into individual stocks is a bad idea. You should follow what warren buffett says, which is buy when there's fear and sell when there's greed, but apparently in this huddle culture. If you sell, when there's greed, you are a paper hander and if you buy when there's fear, you're a pumper, but that might just be social media and idios idiocy. It's it's really dumb, but no dca for individual stocks.

Don't work that way, no good! All right! So cloudflare cloudflare's back over 110, that's cool, look at them. Seven percent! On the day you know, biden yesterday was ranting about cyber security threats. So i mean i guess, that's not a terrible idea. Uh, but uh.

The valuation of these companies is still pretty uh. Pretty impressive like high, really high, but whatever, where did my list of oh there? It is, let's see what the news is. Omicron's sub-variant ba makes up 34.9 percent of covet cases as of march 19th, man, i'm so tired of colvin. I guess i don't know who who uh? Who isn't anyway, i don't know.

Does anybody else want to complain about something, so i could yell with my hello kitty cup uh. Why is amc moving well because the broader market's moving uh, let's see here, do you agree that increasing number of people investing in real estate is playing a major role in how the question is? Do i believe that an increasing number of people investing in real estate is playing a major role in driving up housing prices and limiting affordable housing? No i'll tell you exactly what the problem is. Local governments they're complete morons. They say they want to build more houses on one hand, and then you get investors who invest millions of dollars to create new homes or to build affordable housing units, and then they string them along for two years.

Waiting for building permit approvals. Only just to deny the investors at the end, so guess what happens, especially when you're in stupid, dumb states, like california investors just say you know what fine we'll take advantage of politicians, dumbness their stupidity and we'll just put our money in real estate, because we know, If we put our money in real estate, governments are so stupid, they won't build more homes, so the value of our homes will actually go up substantially more than they should go up. If the governments would just let the free market build an appropriate number of homes. So, in other words, you've got politicians blaming hedge funds and wall street for buying real estate.

When really it's the politicians who are enabling this insane and stupid real estate appreciation by not allowing the free market to build enough homes, sure we got supply chain issues in housing, construction, but let's be real. Building in in america sucks you've got the nimbies in the cities they're, not in my backyard, outside the cities nobody wants to live. I mean people have started to move outside the cities and that's why housing prices are going to the freaking moon in like idaho, but you know what that's called the free market too expensive in california. You move to idaho, then the prices go up over there.

That's actually a healthy rebalancing right, but the fact that we don't build more homes where we need them is politicians fault and they make investing honestly in states like california, actually a really good investment, because you know the idiots in california ain't going to build more homes. So you want a safe investment: go buy california real estate. That sounds crazy because a lot of people like hell, no f, california i'll, never want to do business with california. Don't worry you don't have to just don't build in california, buy and huddle uh? Okay.

So what else uh homeless are moving to? California, man, that's just what the dumb california politicians say who screwed up dealing with homelessness in california. You look at the stats 90 of the homeless in california. Come from within california, you're, so dumb. This freaking state is so stupid, so stupid dude bollard already shot his wad this morning, okay, okay, i shouldn't say that that sounds terrible.

Bullard came out this morning and says we should be at three percent by the end of the year. We should have another 275 basis, points of hike and he says that we should use a double barrel, shotgun to go to this market and not only raise rates but reduce the balance sheet really aggressively, and we should act like it's 1994. market. You want to know what the market did.

This is what the market did. There's there's bullard for you, so you want to know if you should take profits tomorrow with bullard. There's your answer reload. Oh my gosh, so stupid! Oh man, um just crazy all right!.