Test test, one two: three test test: one: two: three: what's going on guys, we're gon na see how the market reacts to jerome powell speaking to the wall street journal, make sure that you guys, if you guys, aren't already uh subscribe to the youtube channel. I upload new videos every single day, especially if you're just getting started. The first link in the description is for our free discord chat. So if you're simply trying to connect with like-minded people, uh just make sure you click the first link down below and again.

This is s kikiq. This goes up when the nasdaq market goes down, and this is tkq. This goes up when the nasdaq market goes up. One of the main things that we're looking out for today is hoping that jerome powell does not say that they will be raising interest rates higher than originally anticipated right.

So if he says anything about, oh, let's go ahead, it should be live now. Let's go ahead and refresh this nope do your worst pal, all right! So still waiting on wall street journal to actually go live, so it is 11 a.m. How are we all doing today we're doing good feeling good uh? All we're really looking out for is um, hoping that he doesn't say that they're gon na be raising interest rates more or more aggressive than they originally anticipated. The cpi data that came out last month or four last month was not the best it came out.

It was released on may 11th and that cpi report we were anticipating. You know a pretty decent retracement because of how aggressive they've been taking um of an approach. But nothing just yet so yeah, nothing yet alrighty, pow, pow where's, my boy jay pal. All right, we are live, looks like they started it, but nothing there.

Yet uh do you trade options. I personally do not trade options uh. It is not my focus um just because i don't do something doesn't mean that you shouldn't, or vice versa, just because i do doesn't mean that you should as well i'm a big believer that there's a lot of different ways on how to make money in this Market, so i just view options to be, in my opinion, a little bit too high risk high reward. I already trade tqeq, it's already triple leveraged now, adding the risk of being able to trade options.

It's just a whole other thing that i just don't want to put myself through. It's just preference right if you like options and something that you personally want to be able to do then best of luck right, your risk management better be a1. One of the things that i do want to point out is right. Now i mean the meeting hasn't even started uh, but it looks like sqqq is showing signs of a support level here right around fifty dollars and sixty cents and fifty dollars during today's live trading session.

We actually caught this overall reversal on nasa qqq peaked nice little pullbacks and what it's been doing. It's been making these lower highs and lower lows ever since it's sold off, but again it has not been able to break its support. So all right all right. Nothing! Nothing yet is it just on my side or what oh you got? It got ta hit us with the ad love to see it nope all righty.

How are you guys feeling about um? I mean at the end of the day right we can. We can try to predict something; it doesn't mean that it's going to play out that way. But how are you guys feeling about um the market as of right? Now, i'm not asking you about predicting the future. I'm not asking you about.

What's about to be said, i'm just asking you um: how do you feel about the current market right now, so no one man should have all that power um. I just feel like that comments. Just yeah, i don't know, i don't understand the purpose of that comment. At one point or another i mean someone has to be a decision maker right so yeah.

I don't think that he can give us worse news. Okay, do a oh qqq dump yep nice little pullback on t qqq! I wouldn't call it a dump, but i mean it's still up. Five percent on the day looks like we're getting rejected by that moving average and the meeting hasn't even started, yet so all right yeah, so he uh takes. He makes the decision with other people he's just the one announcing it yeah.

That's that's the whole purpose of right being the chairman of the federal reserve. Oh here we go all right, it's starting for joining us this afternoon. Thank you, nick. It's a pleasure to be here, and i want to welcome our audience watching along on wsj.com twitter and youtube.

So chair power. Let's get started two years ago very quickly and decisively. All right, you did things that fed yours straight up, have not done given the emergency of the pandemic. Now i hear a lot today, especially from our readers, make sure you guys smash that like button and they look at the state of monetary policy and they say the fed is not reacting with the same urgency.

What do you say to people who say that you are not treating high inflation today like an emergency? Well, i guess i would start by saying this nick that um. We know that this is a time for us to be tightly focused on the path ahead and on getting inflation back down to two percent. We know how uh how people are suffering from high inflation, and we have both the tools and the resolve to uh. To get inflation back down uh and no one should doubt our result in doing that and uh.

I i think if you, if you look at uh, how quickly we've moved in the last few months really uh, then you'll you'll see that financial conditions have tightened. Quite a bit, what we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way and we're going to keep pushing until we see that so to get into some of those tactics. The fed raised interest rates at its last meeting by a half percentage point. That is something the fed has done since 2000, and you've said that.

Do you think, 20 years to do that again at your next two meetings? Why are you being so specific? Doesn't that limit your options? Well, i i didn't say uh, so we make the decisions at the meetings. What i said was a couple things. First, i said that that uh we decided to raise the federal funds rate. Uh range from federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the last meeting.

We also said that we thought ongoing rate increases would be appropriate and during the course of the meeting, it became clear that there was very broad support on the committee for um for having on the table the idea of doing uh additional rate increases of that magnitude. At each of the next two meetings and that's what i said and uh you know: that's not that's sort of of a prediction or or a statement that or forward guidance that we're actually going to do this. But i would say if the economy performs about as we expect, then that's that's something that'll be on the table and honestly it's it's so things are so uncertain in the economy. Right now, it's very difficult to think about trying to give guidance uh out into the future um.

We, we don't know uh the path of the economy. There are many global events going on that can affect that that are really not under our control as well. So if the base case is to do a half point of the next two meetings, why not just do a percentage point at your next meeting? You know rip the band-aid off. Oh, no, as you know, inflation works through sorry.

Uh uh monetary policy works through expectations. So markets are pricing in uh, a series of rate hikes, a significant series of future rate hikes yep amounting to that to already having done that so um. So we um, you know we like to work through expectations and i'm not blessing any particular day's readings. But it's been, it's been good to see uh financial markets reacting in advance.

There we go on on the the way, we're speaking about the economy, and the consequences, as i mentioned, is that financial conditions overall have tightened significantly. I think that you know, if you broadly across financial conditions, you're, seeing that and that's what we need. Yeah, we need is to see really uh growth moving down from the very high levels, moving down to a level, that's still positive, but that will give the supply side a chance to catch up there. We go a chance for inflation to come down as we as we get supply and demand back in you know, back together a couple years ago you talked about moving slowly when you're in a dark room when the lights go out.

Obviously things are different. Now it's harder to do that you're moving in much faster increments, as you raise the price of overnight money uh. But i wonder, as you look ahead, what are you going to be looking for to determine whether to increase that pace of half percentage? Point increases? Oh no to three quarters of a point or to slow things down this. Is it quarter point increment uh by which the fed has raised interest rates more often over the last couple of decades? So i do think um you know by the standards of uh central bank practice in recent decades, we're moving about as fast as we've moved in in several decades 20 years um.

But i i guess the way i would say is this: what we need to see is clear and convincing evidence that inflation pressures are abating and inflation is coming down, and if we don't see that then uh then we'll have to consider moving more aggressively. If we do see that that we can consider uh moving to a slower pace, okay - and it's going to be a judgment - call that we make going forward as we as we carefully monitor incoming data, the evolving outlook. How are financial conditions changing? How are they affecting the economy and uh? That's how i think about it. So so back in 2016 uh you were a governor of the fed uh and in late 2018 uh you were chair of the fed.

There was a significant tightening in financial conditions. There were some global growth shocks, global growth was slowing and the fed pulled back from its plans to raise rates, maybe as aggressively as as would have been the case before all that happened with the global shocks that we're facing. Now. The recent tightening and financial conditions that we're seeing now, what would what would you need to see on that side of the markets to reassess the pace of rate increases right now? You know the the underlying uh strength of the u.s economy is is is really good right now, the united, the u.s economy is strong.

The labor market is extremely strong. That's really good growth. This year has been marked down, but is still at very healthy levels. So good yeah, you saw today's retail sales number uh.

The economy is strong, the consumer consumer balance sheets are healthy. Businesses are healthy, uh. The banks are well capitalized, so this is a strong economy and uh. We think it's well positioned to withstand less accommodative monetary policy.

Tighter monetary policy, okay, um, we of course we do monitor global events and global events have been very important drivers of economic conditions. Lately, the war in ukraine is something that has upset the global commodity picture, while also threatening the global order. More broadly and the rolling shutdowns in china are still going on and those are, those are having an effect on global supply chains, of course. So we watch those things we watch how they affect the us economy.

The effects are very uncertain. They probably weigh on growth downward on growth and probably push inflation up at the margin, but even through all that, we see the us economy continuing to show real strength and be well positioned to handle the the uh. The policy changes that we're making chair powell a number of your former colleagues, richard clarida, who was vice chair uh until this past january bill dudley, the former new york fed president uh have said recently that they think that the fed is going to have to raise Its short-term policy rate to three and a half percent - maybe four percent - maybe higher. How are you thinking about the destination right now, uh for how high you might have to raise interest rates so as a policy market's dropping the way i'm thinking about it? Is that right now we're raising rates um uh expeditiously to what we've been saying to a more normal level, which is uh something that we'll reach? Maybe in the fourth quarter? But it's not a stopping point.

It's not a looking around point that we don't. We don't know with any confidence where neutral is we don't know where tight? Is we just don't, and particularly in this environment, of higher inflation and very strong growth in a really tight labor market? So what we're going to what we're going to be? Looking at meeting my meeting data reading by data reading is uh, you know what's happening with financial conditions and what's happening with with the economy really with you know, with the with what the effect, what effects are our changes in policy having on the economy? Are we starting to see what we need to see, which is a really clear and convincing um evidence tcpq below 32 is coming down? That's what i really need to see so we're watching for that. If that involves moving past, you know broadly understood levels of neutral. We won't hesitate at all to do that.

We won't and uh honestly we'll just we will go until we feel like we're at a place where we can uh, where we can say yes, financial conditions are an appropriate place. We see inflation coming down, we'll we'll go to that point and uh. There won't be any. You know hesitation about that, just as it can be hard for you to know when to stop raising interest rates uh, it can be hard to know when to start, and you know, obviously, these things look blindingly obvious in hindsight, but i want to go back to Last year and ask you what went wrong last year from a policy perspective again with the benefit of hindsight, knowing things now that you didn't know, then what do you wish? You had done differently last year, so we have to make these decisions and we do make them in real time based on what we know at the time, and so i would say, if you replay last summer, we had a real spike in inflation that began in March march april may june, of last year, mark gets by she came down month after month after month for about four months anyway through the end of the summer.

So we were, we were concerned because we saw inflation spreading more broadly and because we didn't see uh supply chain, uh issues improving, we didn't see, labor force participation, so we had real concerns, but still the incoming inflation data were kind of consistent with our with our Story and then the data really changed, really uh changed uh pretty thoroughly beginning in in october, and we responded very much to that. So since then we you know we pivoted in our policy and since then, you've seen really quite significant tightening and financial conditions. I don't know that financial conditions have tightened more quickly than this in a very long time, yeah and um. But that's what happened and you know i i i've said - and i've said for the last two and a half months.

I've been i've been saying that if you look back in hindsight, give yourself 20 20 hindsight, then yes, it probably would have been better to have raised rates. Earlier um we were looking at some weak weak employment reports. We were looking at inflation reports that were coming down when that stopped and when the data, when the data started pointing toward a sort of stronger economy with higher inflationary pressures higher wage pressures, we didn't hesitate from that point. We've really moved.

You know, i would say almost expeditiously since then we have moved and you see where we are six months later, since that happened you now, you now have the ten years up. Uh, you know 140 basis points the the the two years up almost 200 basis points and the two-year treasury is a pretty good measure of policy expectations. So quite a lot of tightening and appropriately so inflation is way too high uh and we need to bring it down we're going to use our tools to do that. Obviously, the pandemic has made economic forecasting more difficult than it's been in a long time, and i wouldn't i wouldn't presume to think that it's easy, but looking at demand last year, the fiscal stimulus that was approved by the administration in congress last march.

It was far larger than what euro and economists and the fed were anticipating. Did that end up putting the fed behind the curve in terms of uh, you just didn't judge demand properly because of the much larger stimulus that was approved. So i it's really not our role in economic policy within the government to reach judgments on uh economic actions taken by by congress or by the uh by the administration. There are other parts of the government that do that exact thing, but it's really us.

So i guess i would say that um there was a lot of stimulus put behind the us economy. That was both monetary policy and that was fiscal policy. But still you can't you, you can't get the kind of inflation that we've gotten out of that. Much demand that was a lot of support for demand.

You can't get the kind of inflation we have without these supply bottlenecks that we've had and that that includes um. You know the supply chain problems that we've had the shortages. You know, if you look at automobiles. That's a great case.

Ordinarily, car makers would have just made more cars. There was tremendous demand for cars, but before you know, really isn't crowded set of reasons there weren't enough semiconductors, so there weren't cars, and so you have tremendous vehicle inflation. That's just one example same thing: we didn't see uh, you know the we had a real um hit to labor force participation. We didn't see that coming and so really these supply side factors.

You have to add them in to any kind of economic model to get the kind of inflation that we have. We clearly had very strong demand and we knew that. But what we didn't know and anticipate was how large the supply side effects would be and how persistent they were, and we now know that in hindsight and we see how sticky they are, and so, as i i mentioned, you know we're now not we're not setting Policy on the expectation that we get relief on the supply side until we actually do all right, so that was 2021 then comes along three months ago. The war in ukraine uh, which has obviously been enormously disruptive uh to millions of people uh in eastern europe, but also uh, has had a profound effect on energy markets, uh commodity markets and uh, and we also have wonderful guns in china.

How have those events changed? The difficulty - so i don't want to take too much of your guys's time, um to my understanding, they're pretty much. The biggest focus i mean now all they're doing is talking about uh previous conditions. Right - and i know a lot of you guys - might not agree with uh j-pal right, because they're increasing interest rates at a very aggressive approach, and that does affect us that does affect us investors and us as individuals. But you have to understand like that, is literally.

Like the only tool that they have to be able to moderate inflation, um and - and i think what he said, he said it very respectfully that they will continue to increase interest rates until they take control of inflation and rightfully so. Yes, that will affect people in. In somewhat of a negative way uh, but i think it's very very important to do something for the greater good uh and i think that's essentially what he's been saying. Uh of supply chain problems, so uh that's going to make it harder for for inflation to come down, uh and so really they've added to the degree of difficulty into what was already a challenging project.

So we heard here before lunch from barry biffle, the ceo of frontier airlines. He says he's raising prices because of fuel costs and there's a pilot shortage. And now those are things outside of your control. But you said just now that the fed can no longer set policy on the hope or expectation that supply chains will will give you a lot of help here.

So what does that mean for fed policy if these things are out of your control in the supply chain or if energy markets don't improve anytime soon? What is the implication of that for policy? Well, it doesn't have much of an implication in the near term because we clearly have a job to do on demand, so there there's an imbalance in the economy broadly between demand and supply, and so we can't really affect supply, but things that are really supply side Issues our policies - don't don't work on this, but we have a job to do on demand and i would, for example, point to the labor market, where there are there's more demand for workers than there are people available to work by a substantial margin, yeah, and so That means that wages are moving up, which is a great thing, but they're moving up at a pace that is not consistent with two percent inflation. So, there's a pathway for us to to use our tools to uh, to to try to moderate demand still still to a positive level, but not not at the high level that it was at, for example, last year and and trying to get demand and supply back. A lot into alignment in the labor market or close to it so that there'll still be positive. Wage increases uh and you know healthy wage increases, but they'll be at a level that is more consistent with two percent inflation.

Wages are a very important determiner of inflation. Over the longer term, so that's just an example of what what our job is and we think we can do that job. In the meantime, of course, we're looking for everyone is looking for for the supply side to heal more. We don't see much evidence of that.

Yet but i mean i still think in the longer run that has to be coming, there will be semiconductors and uh and other other things that are in short supply right now. A lot of people, though, are skeptical that you can get inflation down to your two percent goal: uh without a recession. What what do you know that they don't? I don't know anything that they don't. I mean i, i would say it's there's no disagreement here.

Really it is a going to be a challenging task and it's been made more challenging in the last couple of months because of global events um. So it's challenging because unemployment is very low already and because uh inflation is very high, and so but but i will just say, there's a there are pathways we clearly there are pathways for us to to be able to moderate demand, get demanded, supply back in alignment And get inflation back down while also con, but while also having a strong labor market, doesn't mean that the unemployment rate needs to remain 3.6, which is very, very low rate historically low. It's one-tenth above the 50-year low you'd still have a quite a strong labor market. If inflation, if sorry, if unemployment were to move up a few ticks, so i would say: there's a there's a you know: there are a number of plausible paths to having a soft door market's fine soft dish landing, and you know our job doesn't do handicap the Odds, it is to try to achieve that.

The last thing, i'll say, though, is that um achieving price stability. Restoring price stability is, is an unconditional need with something we have to do, because really the economy doesn't work for for workers or for businesses or for anybody. Without price stability, so it's the bedrock of the economy really, and - and so that's something we need to do if we want to have the kind of labor market that we all want to have, which is one where there are tight. Labor, market conditions and wages are moving up and people are changing, jobs and opportunity is growing, that's good.

All of that, but that's really that's not hot and eating up people's paychecks, yep, so sure apparel. I heard you refer to a soft dish landing and i want to ask: what's the difference between a soft landing and a soft-ish landing, because if the pilot tells me don't worry, we're going to have a soft-ish landing, i i don't know. I start to wonder what he's talking about well, so you fly around you know. Sometimes the landing is just perfect right and, and sometimes it's just just a little bumpy, and so it's still a good landing.

You know you don't even notice it right. So in this, what does it mean in this setting? So i i guess i would say this uh we have to get inflation down to two percent. We've got to restore, you know our definition of price stability, and we will do that um. It will be challenging to do that without we have to slow growth.

To do that, that's that's! The idea is that growth has to move down part of the that's. What has to happen for inflation to come down? Raising. We don't have precision tools, we don't. We can't say, let's, let's dial it into this exact level, exactly know we raise interest rates that affects financial conditions and financial conditions affect the economy.

So there are a couple of access there and it's not. It is not in any way a surgically precision set of tools, so um, i i would say there could. As i mentioned there could be some pain involved uh into restoring uh price stability, but we think we can maintain a strong labor market defined. As you know, a labor market, where unemployment is low and wages are moving up and that kind of thing it may not be the perfect labor market, but it will be a strong labor market, so i'll move on from this subject.

But i just i want to ask if there's a historical example that you could point to, for what you're trying to achieve some people talk about the late 1990s, but even then the unemployment rate uh continued to to drift lower uh after the fed raised interest rates. Uh, so is this something that we have any his recent historical experience with what you're trying to do here? Well, so you can look back uh to 1916, there have been 11 tightening cycles and in none of those cycles does it do they look anything like the current cycle. We've. Never i don't know, i won't say never, but i'm not aware of a time when we've had two job openings for every unemployed person exactly and uh.

It's it's just an extraordinary. It's a once in a century pandemic, followed by a historically large fiscal and monetary policy, support followed by a war in the middle of europe between two commodity makers, followed by partial shutdown of of you, know, china, a very large economy. That's that's the manufacturing center uh. One of the manufacturing centers of the world.

So can you look in the history book and find that? No, you can't exactly so. I just think we're we're in a world of firsts, so i wouldn't say just because it's never happened before it's impossible. I wouldn't say that i would say that there are plausible paths and that this will be challenging, but we'll we'll do our best to achieve it in any place. We will achieve price stability.

So what are you looking to see either in inflation or in financial conditions? That tells you that things are moving in your direction, because it feels like there's a chance here that inflation does come down in the second half of the year, even though it'll still be above your target. But there's also a chance that the labor market tightens even more, and i wonder how you would uh you know. I know it's hard to respond to a hypothetical, but that doesn't seem like a crazy hypothetical to be to be considering right now. A situation where you do get improvement on inflation.

But you do continue to overshoot an estimate of what might be considered a more stable employment situation. Well, the main thing is to get just to get inflation down. You know we all read. Of course everyone reads the inflation reports very carefully and and looks for uh.

You know details that look positive and that kind of thing, but truthfully we don't. This is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation. We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. That's what we need to see yeah and until we see that we're you know we're gon na we're gon na keep going we're not gon na we're, not gon na assume that we've made it until we see that and we're not seeing that right now we are There there are some promising signs, you can point to them.

There are some signs that are not promising, but really that's that's. What we're looking to see so with the policy rate where it is you you don't need to. I mean which what we need to do is is push ahead, with rate increases, yep and, and you know, make the evaluation that i mentioned earlier appreciate that daniel level should we slow down. Should we speed up, i think that's what we'll be doing as we as we see incoming data and uh and and make a judgment about.

Where are we have we gotten as far as we need to get, and until we do we'll keep going now? A number of people have suggested to me that the one thing that might uh slow you down or at least make this much more difficult, would be some kind of market cataclysm. And i wonder in part, if that's why you're trying to be more transparent, uh, not erratic, making sudden moves on on your policy moves. But my question there is: where is your level of concern that financial stability and controlling inflation by raising interest rates? Maybe a lot? Might be fundamentally incompatible uh in that raising rates causes financial disruption, but doesn't actually bring inflation under control. Where is your level of concern around that situation? I i don't see that happening.

I mean we so we've monitored a very broad range of financial conditions and uh we're doing that now, we'll keep doing that and you know thank you for subscribing cycles, look different. Sometimes the tightening takes place in one market, sometimes in another, sometimes in credit spreads. Sometimes in all of them, so we're watching them all. You know, as a group yeah, you know it's of course um.

I just bought a thousand more shares of t q q, some markets, but nonetheless um the markets are orderly, they're functioning, i i think they're processing uh the way, we're thinking the way that the fomc is thinking about policy pretty well and um, and i think that The you know the the idea again is to have financial conditions tightened to the point where growth will moderate and still be positive, but moderate to the point where supply and demand can get back in alignment and where we can get inflation back down to two percent And i you know, i see that broadly working working pretty well right now. Obviously there are some volatile days involving markets, but so far uh i i i see it as you know. I see us as getting through this fairly well, i like that this is the future of everything, festival, uh and then the time we have left. Let's see at some of the issues on the horizon for the economy, labor shortage.

I wonder if you see that as something that might be a more persistent rather than just a cyclical feature in our economy, i mean, if you look at network, for the break, look for the break 2017, because the policy reasons for the pandemic - it's been basically flat - Are labor shortages here to stay and and what would the implications of that be for the fed? I think there is a risk that we'll have a persistent imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market and you put your finger on it. It's it's uh. It's! It's part of its population, there's the labor force, there's the there's, the labor force participation rate, but if the population is growing more slowly, they're going to be fewer workers and that's a that's a big part of the story, yeah really in recent years is immigration has Been quite low, these are not tools that or things that the fed has or places where we seek to guide policy. But if you have a slower um, if you have a slower growing labor market, you're gon na have a smaller economy and um you're gon na have you could be in a position in a situation where, where these wage pressures um remain longer, of course, we'd love To see labor for labor force participation come up, but i i do think that it's a, i think, that's a risk in the medium term, but it's really one for other policy makers to uh.

To look after that, you know, concepts yeah. This concept called the natural rate of unemployment, the idea that the when the economy is finally balanced, there's a level of unemployment that corresponds with stable inflation, and i went back and looked when you joined the board of governors almost exactly 10 years ago. You know the the participants at once a quarter project where they think these things are so in 2012, you and most of your colleagues thought that that level was between five and six percent. Now you and your colleagues think have been, you know, writing down that.

It's somewhere between three and a half and the low four percent area uh. But how much weight do you put on the prospect that the natural rate of unemployment, perhaps temporarily, perhaps not, has actually shifted higher and might be closer to where you and your colleagues thought it was 10 years ago? Well, no, i think i think that may well be right. I i think you're there. There was a tremendous amount of turbulence in the labor market, and so you know in theory the the sort of matching function that is, the labor market could be disrupted.

People are changing jobs at all-time record rates and uh there's just a lot going on. People are re-evaluating their commitment to the labor force, so all of that points to a higher natural rate of unemployment. But but you know the the other thing. That's clear, though, is that the effective natural rate changes during can change pretty significantly over the course of an expansion, particularly a long expansion like the last one where you finally had three and a half percent unemployment, and no sign of either wage or price inflation.

We had yet a couple years there where unemployment was well below four percent, and you didn't see inflation so that that suggests that as that longest expansion and recorded u.s history ten years and then very much as that went on, is matching getting better and better and Better and more efficient and the natural rate coming down right now, it feels like it feels like the the the um. The actual unemployment rate is, is not the perfect uh you have. You have to think about where the, where the unemployment, where the natural rate is compared to today's employment rate, it does appear to me that it's it's probably well above 3.6, but it should shift down as this highly unusual time in our economy and in our labor Market goes on it should you know, we should see that settling down and we should see the natural rate declining and that itself could reduce uh wage pressures and inflation pressures. Well, all things equal that i mean.

Would you, as the chairman of the fed, feel more comfortable today if the unemployment rate were a little bit higher somewhere uh in the fours instead of in the threes? You know, i'm i'm never going to say that more people need to be out of work um. You know i i would, i would love to see a labor market, that's more in balance, and ideally that would start with uh with the with the number of vacancies coming down, and that's one of the things that that is, vacancies and quits are at all-time highs And that that suggests a labor market, that's out of balance and they're, just there's more demand than there are workers. So we've i'd love to see. People come back into the labor force and we are seeing some of that we'd like to see that continue and we'd.

Like to see the vet job vacancies level come down so that you're seeing supply and demand get back together and um. You know the unemployment rate will shake out where it needs to be. It's obvious, as i mentioned, it's close to a 50-year low right now. Moving from sort of the pandemic, uh labor market to the supply chain and inventory management, it seems much more possible than it did a year ago that we're going through a big shift in how businesses manage the supply chain and the forces of the last 25 years.

That really helped central banks, keep inflation, low businesses rising an efficient, uh supply chain. Now, might you know you might want resilience? You might want to source goods from multiple suppliers that could embed uh higher costs. So what would be the implications for the fed if we're going through some kind of regime shift, where those forces that helped bring prices down over the last three decades are reversing now? So i i do think you've you've had sort of a perfect storm of disinflationary forces for the last quarter century and that's globalization. You know amplified by technology, it's aging population, certainly in the western democracies, and all all of that has in low productivity.

That has all led to to disinflation, and so some have been making the argument for years now that those forces were all going to flip. I don't think they would flip overnight, but i would say you know, certainly in the near term there there is a real possibility that will the globalization will go into reverse to some extent, and you know the trade-off would be those those those supply chains were very Efficient very very robust, and they you know they broke down pretty badly in the pandemic. So i mean to the extent you do that you'd have more security in your supply chain, testing two dollars a share again for tkq. It might not be quite as efficient as the amazing global supply chains that we had, which were very, very fast and and flexible, and all that.

So i i don't. I'm not sure what the overall you could see higher inflationary pressures for a time, but at the same time policy could respond to that. So i don't know that you see higher inflation, yeah um. So it's hard to say: globalization obviously brought its costs and its benefits, and you know it benefited lots of parts of the world uh and um and from our standpoint we got a lot of products cheaper, but our manufacturing base in in the west is vastly diminished And um you know you're right, it would be a very different world if we see that go into reverse or pause, we're almost out of time, i'm going to try to sneak in one last question to you.

You were confirmed last week to a new, four-year term. Uh with significant bipartisan support, someone joked to me. You see that sort of support only to adjourn the senate. These days, um you've been through a lot in your first four years as fed chair, especially in the last two.

Is there anything you've learned in that time that might change your approach to this job in the next four years? Um you know, i, i think that there's an overwhelming need to get inflation under control, and that's what i'm thinking about. That's what we're thinking about here at the fed um in times when you know you're at two percent inflation and the economy is growing and unemployment's really low uh you can, you can have a more balanced. You know uh thought about watching there we go. I think we know we're adding more to my position now, which is just to get inflation under control and we'll use our tools to do that.

That's that's my dominant thought about the future at the it's a great honor, to thank you guys for subscribing. I'm able to serve a second term and, of course i'll do my very best. You know to carry out our obligations under the dual mandate and leave it there. Well chair powell, thank you so much for joining us.

It's an honor to have you with us alrighty! So a quick little recap for those that didn't tune on in from the very beginning of um the live stream first off. What was feared of to be said was not said, meaning that is he going to raise interest rates more than half of a percentage. Um point right: he said he will do anything that he needs to do. The fed will do anything that they need to do to get inflation down and rightfully so i i can see the number of people in the live chat.

First, off um, you need to understand that no one will ever 100 agree and i think the live chat is a perfect example. There's just a couple thousand of you in here uh now, i'm now imagine right, um! All of america. There's no question that not everyone's going to agree with one, not one person's decision, because it's not um jay pal's decision solely right. It's it's all of them he's just the chairman he's the speaker of of uh, the feds uh and rightfully so so um.

I i think the approach that they are taking is very proactive with with everyone saying like no, they should have done this sooner. I think with how he responded to that of it's much easier. It's kind of like looking back in 2020 right for all of us investors and all of us traders, it's very easy for us to look back now in hindsight and be like hey. I should have bought the dip on airlines during the very bottom of the pandemic.

I should have invested in real estate right because, during covet after the recovery markets went up 20, i should have invested in tesla once it did its split. It's very easy to look back and always be like yo. You know it it's it's something that almost makes perfect sense now, because we saw how the market reacted, and i don't, i just don't think that's fair. I'm not saying that.

I completely agree with everything. Is that they're doing, but i think that he is doing solely his job uh and it makes sense on why he had so much support in being uh reelected for another four years um. I'm i'm excited to follow up. I like what he said that he will do anything that he has to do to get inflation down, as that is the whole purpose of the fed right to moderate inflation.

But i think what he said about having a very strong labor market, and you guys you guys know this is true right. How many people do you know and and i'm speaking to you as an individual right, i'm not a fed. I'm not! No, nothing like that. Right how many people do you know friends, family who are not back at work? Not because they can't work not because they can't find a job, but because they choose not to yet everyone will blame the government and or the feds it's a scapegoat right at the end of the day with everyone that you know.

Let's be honest, let's be, let's be completely honest, you think everyone that wants a job right now, that's actually trying is actually struggling to get a job. No, i mean i mean in the different markets that we partake in right. It is very, very easy, as of now, because of how strong the labor market is in the sense of demand is high. The the the desire of of wanting workers in almost every field is very high, but the desire to feel valued to some degree in the labor market.

I mean why work when you can get paid by the government right and i feel like it's just an excuse - that a lot of people use that they will blame the government of hey. You know why is this happening, but at the end of the day, if they're not going back to work, putting in the effort then um i mean the only people that we have to blame are ourselves right and rightfully so you guys all know it's true people In either your family friends, people that you might know neighbors they choose not to work, it's not that they can't find work, it's they choose not to work um and every job is not willing to pay a fair value. I personally think that that is complete bs. I think that if you feel like you are worth something, if you are a problem solver, if you are someone, that's you know willing to overcome challenges.

People will hire you and they will eventually pay you what you are worth, but you also need to work more than what you are getting paid in the very beginning and that's the thing we live in a world now where everyone wants to be paid, something that They have not earned what they, what they're entitled to no one deserves anything. You earn everything right and i think that's kind of like where i'm at where this is why i feel like i can make sense of their decision and why the market is heading where it is it's not just the feds. It's also how us, as americans, react um, i'm not here to go any more off of that, but um. I really do appreciate you guys taking time.

I hope that you guys enjoyed today's live stream. I would love to host more of these if you guys enjoyed today's with me, being you know, kind of going back and forth based off of market conditions. All i literally ask you to do is to smash that like button and, of course, consider subscribing. I upload new videos every single day, not only when it comes down to the stock market, but the different markets that i partake in i trade live every day as well.

Um also, i have a free discord group. If you're just getting started, i mean a quick little update. I i trade with quite a bit of money. I don't expect all of you guys um to trade to this i'm up.

25. 000. On the day, i have 14 000 shares in tqq i decided to buy the dip when um, you know the market overreacted uh and i'm going to reduce my position size to 8 000 shares once it approaches the 33 dollar price point that we've been working towards Within our lpp chat, so again i work with the lpp group every single day. If you want to learn a little bit more about them, that's that second link down below you can join my free discord group.

That's the first link, but the second link is my private group. That's who i work with every day. That's like who gets to watch me. Trade live every day at market, open that to get at who gets access to my hq.

You guys saw kind of how we hosted today's live stream. Now. Imagine me trading during that. That's what we do every single morning.

So if you saw value in today's live stream, then you most likely will see value in our learn plan profit group, but again no rush. If you want to learn more about it, click the second link down below and like always, let's make sure that we end the year on our green note, if you guys have any questions that you guys want to ask me, that's going to be the first link Down below, i appreciate you guys time, like always, let's make sure that we.