Of supply and demand, dislocations are bringing it down. The motor vehicle sector provides a good illustration. Earlier in the Pandemic: Demand for vehicles Rose Sharply supported by low interest rates, fiscal transfers, curtailed spending on in-person services, and shifts in preference away from public transportation and from living in cities, but because of a shortage of semiconductors, Vehicle: Supply actually fell. Vehicle prices spiked for the large pool of demand Emerged Pandemic and its effects are weighing production and inventories have grown and supply has improved at the same time.

Higher interest rates have weighed on demand, Interest rates on auto loans have nearly doubled since early last year, and customers report feeling the effect of higher rates on affordability on net motor vehicle inflation has declined sharply because of the combined effects of use, supply and demand. Factors similar Dynamics are playing out for Core: Goods Inflation Overall, as they do, the effects of monetary restraint should should show through more fully over time. Core: Goods Prices fell the last two months, but on a 12-month basis. Core: Goods Inflation remains well above its pre-pandemic level.

Sustained progress is needed in restrictive monetary policy is called for to achieve that progress in the highly interest sensitive housing sector. The effects of monetary policy became apparent soon after liftoff. Mortgage rates doubled over the course of 2022., causing housing starts and sales to fall and house price growth to plummet. Growth in Market.

Rents soon peaked and then steadily declined. Measured: Housing Services Inflation lagged these changes as is typical, but has recently begun to fall. This inflation metric reflects rents pay by all tenants, as well as estimates of the equivalent rents that could be earned from homes that are owner occupied. Because leases turn over slowly, it takes time for a decline in Market rent growth to work its way into the overall inflation measure.

The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure. The sloming growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as in the pipeline and will affect measured Housing Services inflation over the coming year going forward. If Market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels, Housing Services Inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well, and we will continue to watch the market rent data closely for a signal of The Upside and downside risks to Housing Services inflation. The final Category nine Housing Services accounts for over half of the core Pce index and accounts and includes a broad range of services such as health care.

Food Services transportation and accommodations. 12-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging. Part of the reason for the modest decline of non-housing services inflation so far is that many of these Services were less affected by global supply chain bottlenecks and are generally thought to be less interest sensitive than other sectors such as housing or durable goods. Production of these Services is also relatively labor intensive, and the labor market remains tight Given the size of this sector, some further progress here will be essential in restoring price stability over time.

Restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance, reducing inflationary pressures in this key sector. Turning then to the Outlook although further unwinding of pandemic related distortions should continue to continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, Restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role getting inflation sustainably back down to two percent is expected to require a period of below Trend economic growth, as well as some softening in labor market conditions. Restrictive monetary policy has tightened Financial conditions supporting the expectation of below Trend growth. Since last year's Symposium the two-year real yield is up about 250 basis points and the longer term real yields are higher as well by nearly 150 basis points Beyond changes in interest rates Bank lending standards have tightened and Loan growth has slowed sharply.

Such a tightening abroad Financial conditions typically contributes to a slowing in the growth of economic activity, and there is evidence of that in this cycle as well. For example, growth in industrial production has slowed and the amount spent on residential investment has declined in each of the past five quarters, but we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected. So far this year, GDP growth has come in above expectations and above its longer run trend, and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust. In addition, after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, housing sector is showing signs of picking back up.

Additional evidence of persistently above Trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further technical monetary policy. The rebalancing of the labor market has continued over the past year, but remains incomplete. Labor supply has improved, driven by stronger participation among workers age 25 to 54 and by an increase in Immigration back toward pre-pandemic levels. Indeed, the labor force participation rate of women in their Prime working years reached an all-time high in June.

Demand for labor has moderated as well. Job openings remain high, but are trending lower. Payroll job growth has slowed significantly. total hours worked has been flat over the past six months, and the average work week has declined to the lower end of its pre-pandemic range.

Reflecting a gradual normalization in labor market conditions, this rebalancing has eased wage pressures. Wage growth across a range of measures measures continues to slow, albeit gradually. While nominal wage growth must ultimately slow to a rate that is consistent with two percent inflation, what matters for households is real wage growth. Even as nominal wage growth has slowed, real wage growth has been increasing as inflation.

Has Fallen We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, Could also call for a monetary policy response. Getting ready to sell two percent Is it our inflation? Target We are committed to achieving and sustained sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to that level over time. It is challenging, of course, to know in real time when such a stance has been achieved. There are some challenges that are common to all Technic cycles.

For example, real interest rates are now positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate. We see the current stance of policy as restrictive putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation, but we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint. That assessment is further Complicated by an uncertainty about the duration of the lags with which monetary tightening affects economic activity and especially inflation. Since the Symposium a year ago, the committee has raised the policy rate by 300 basis points, including 100 basis points over the past seven months, and we have substantially reduced the size of our Securities Holdings The wide range of estimates of these lags beautiful that there may be significant further drag in Beyond These traditional sources of policy uncertainty, the supply and demand dislocations unique to this cycle raise further complications through their effects on inflation and labor market dynamics.

For example, our Japanese have declined substantially without increasing unemployment, but historically unusual result that appears to reflect large excess demand For labor. In addition, there is evidence that inflation has become more responsive to labor market tightness than was the case in recent decades. Wow. These changing Dynamics may or may not persist in this uncertainty underscores the need for agile policy making uncertainties both old and new.

We are tasked announcing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little. Doing too little could allow the above Target could allow above Target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to ring or persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy. As is often the case we are navigating by the stars under Cloudy Skies Such circumstances, risk management considerations are critical.

At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving Outlook and risks. Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten it further or instead to hold the policy rate constant and await further data. Restoring prices still moves essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will need price stability to achieve lots for 38.50 38.50 and we will keep at it until the job is done.

Thank you. All right, he's done speaking. That is going to speak longer than that. What the heck? Yeah, that sounds dovish.

That's good for the market. But again, we all we all know based off of the previous two trading days, right? The market has been extremely extremely choppy. So this is why you are seeing that: I am choosing to reduce my position size at overbought levels I am not sold on the idea I'm not sold on the idea that the market has to continue to Rally Now of course, in a perfect world, if I knew how to predict the future, yeah, it would be amazing right? But just like you guys saw, the market sold off I mean yeah, you guys have to. You have to give me, you know, a round of applause.

You have to admit for how I bought into this right, testing the moving average how I added more to it. That was a textbook setup of a reversal. and let me let me give credit where it's due. I don't my my trades are never that ideal and I'm not here to sugarcoat it for you like oh look how badass I am no I mean that was a dope trade that was a really good trade.

Uh, it completely began to take off I mean I averaged up into it as you saw I added to it incrementally right when Direction became favorable I added more to it and then when we became overbought I sold 2 000 shares all at once right then I sold 500 and 500 again. So I'm I'm very proud for how I performed there. Uh, but I know, right? And this is a perfect candle to represent how choppy today can be. right? It does not have to perform in in one single way.

Market can still continue to be choppy right now. We were up three percent. Imagine if the market closes in the red, would that be the craziest thing that you would see? No, you know what I think is much crazier yesterday yesterday where we gapped up and the video was up nearly 10 and it gave everything back. So if you think that it can't give back two percent, Well yesterday's move for Tqq right? Like how much that is, that's over a ten percent move so you can't think that it can't give back everything that I gained today.

Obviously there's a reason on why the Market's sold off, but based off of how Jerome Powell spoke it um and what he said um I don't I don't think it was super hawkish. There was no remark that I s that I heard I don't know about you guys. Um, that surprised me and this is something right? I was just live with my Lpp team literally right before this live stream. uh and I told him I was like hey, he kind of reads off of a script.

uh it's very rare if he ever says anything that you know surprises the market. uh but we'll see, we'll see if he does. and um yeah I mean to me, there wasn't anything significant, but it doesn't matter what. I Think it matters how the market digests that information and as of right now I still feel like it's indecisive, right? We had a nice little rip up.

We had a nice rip down, first a nice rip up and then now we're correcting ourselves so we'll see if we go back to retest this moving average and guess what? The only people that freak out when the market pulls on back are those that did not lock in profits and that did not prepare right. So it had to be a positive mood kind of. But then look at what's happening right now, right? We're correcting ourselves and right before the meeting NASDAQ was already up. I Mean Tkq is up around uh, to 38 dollars.

So I'm not here to over complicate the trading today. I Mean it's it's very, very simple. Like yes, there was I mean you could have made money if you were a bull or if you were a bear, right? as long as you locked in profits right with this move. Bears This move Bulls This move Bears There's money to be made on both sides.

Stopover. Complicating it. Stop making it personal. The stock market doesn't care about you.

It doesn't care about me. We're irrelevant, right? Take your money and go. That's literally like how it is right. Like this isn't anything where you have to be emotional or you have to think that oh I want it or I was hoping or I think this.

Who cares? It doesn't matter what you think, right, Stop over complicating your trading, Stop making it personal has nothing to do with you and and focus on just quality trades. Be effective. And if all of this choppiness doesn't meet your criteria I Respect that because you respect yourself enough that you're not going to jump into something that doesn't meet your criteria. That's fair.

That's the goal. If you can have enough criteria where you don't jump into something that is completely out of left field, then so be it. Be entitled, Be selective. There's nothing wrong with that in this market.

The goal is to be the exact opposite of what AMC Traders are. And that's bag holders and people who hope right. This isn't a dream. This isn't something where you fingers crossed and I hope this happens right? You have to be consistent.

You have to understand what you're doing. You have to be effective with your entries and with your exits. So stop making it personal. Stop making it about you.

It's not right. You can have good days, You can have bad days, but at the end of it, it's all about the quality trades that you choose to take advantage of. Even when you take bad trades. We've said this before: you take in a red trade doesn't make you a bad Trader There's a lot of green trades that you can take that are still bad trades, right? It's all about how you got there.

Not every trade you take is going to be green. Our job is not to avoid risk. Our job is to manage it. and you guys all know that.

Okay, we all have our own struggles, our own challenges of what we are trying to work on. Note them down, right? Why do you think that so many people talk about journaling their trades? Not to sugarcoat things right, but it's to hold yourself accountable. And if you continue to make the same mistake over and over again and you do nothing to change it I Think that's the definition of insanity, right? All right? So I mean that's pretty much it. I only wanted to go live for that small period.

Um, I was just trading live with the Lpp team and again I Want to remind you I mean if you kind of like what you saw today where you were able to see my entries normally I explained my thought process behind the trade but Jerome Powell was obviously speaking and I don't want to offend people when I speak um so they would tell me to shut up. but normally every morning if I do end up taking trades right I explained the thought process behind every trade, you get to see my good trades. You get to see my bad trades. You don't have to join my LBP team, but if you like what you saw today, that is exactly what they get to experience every single day.

They are the only team that I work with on a daily basis. You don't have to join, but if you're tired of trying to figure this out all on your own and you feel like it would be a value for you to be able to wake up every morning and to tune on into a live session that's private just for our Lpp team. You get to see my entries, exits, and my thought process. Then that's going to be the second link in the description down below.

It's a one-time payment, lifetime access and we are running our biggest sell right now. and it's 175 dollars off. so if you want to join, you can watch me trade live as soon as Monday Okay, so it's all inclusive I offer nothing else. It comes with the A to Z video Lesson library and our private Lpp group chat.

So I really do appreciate your guys's time. It looks like now we are beginning to show signs of a potential support once again or we're going to go back to retest. Uh, the moving average And let's see if we actually break below. Let's see if we break below this testing moving average.

Is it going to do the same thing that it did last time? And are we going to bounce off of this right? So this was a really nice rip for the Bears right? Like we said, there's money to be made on both sides. So I don't know why people? Um, sometimes in the live it's more people like when you're on YouTube or something, they try to go after one another because oh I'm bullish. I'm bearish. Dude, no one cares about your 500 shares you own of whatever company you have.

you're irrelevant, right? It's it. Doesn't matter. Get take your money, make your money, and leave right? Stop thinking that oh, I'm against you dude. If you can move markets, you'd have much, you know your opinion would matter much more.

So focus on yourself. There's always money to be made on both sides. Someone else making money does not take away from your success. Stop taking it so personal, right? Because they're so rude to one another.

Um, that it's it's counterproductive. Everyone's here for the same reason we're all trying to make money. Let's embrace it, right? All right. Testing support here.

Let's see if we find the break above. if we end up breaking below the moving average. I'm going to have to manage my risk and I will sell those 2 000 shares before I close out the live stream I Want to see if we balance or if we get rejected? All right. So I hope that it earned your thumbs up in this video.

Um, and hopefully you can consider subscribing. and if you have any questions, shoot me a direct message via Discord or via Instagram There's so many of you guys that follow me, yet you never message me yet. you have so many questions. what the heck is that all about? Why? Why not message me right? Everything is linked in the description down below.

I Tried to the best of my ability I'm not perfect I respond to all of all the messages I See sometimes I do Overlook some so just send me like a period so it pops right back up. I'm not trying to ignore you. Um, but yeah. shoot me a DM shoot me a message and would love to be a value for you, right? If that's you being a part of Lpp or you just being subscribed to the channel, thank you gently.

Appreciate that and here it goes. Looks like it's about to break below waiting for a break below previous lows. and that's fine, right? Our job is not to be perfect. Our job is not to avoid risk.

Our job is to manage it. Give it to 20. that's a lows of 23. the heck are you doing Buddy? Follow at a distance right? I Don't have to over complicate it.

This is why I'm sizing down on my position size. It's not anything too complicated. Here it goes. You guys see where my stop loss is at.

It's at 37.19 right below that previous support. We'll see if we get if we break below right? it's testing potential support range here. Let's stay patient. Let's stay light, especially when direction is unclear.

But look at this right: if this thing does end up recovering I can really step on the gas? These 2 000 Shares are nothing. I Can buy 15 000 shares right? Really? step on the gas when Direction becomes favorable. but that's only when direction is actually favorable. I Don't want to jump into something that really doesn't matter.

There it goes. another 1500 shares. Looks like we're beginning to bounce foreign. Let's see, we're testing that moving average.

We don't have to break above, but if we do, then we can really step on the gas. I'm going to leave the rest of the updates uh to our Lpp team. So again, I'll keep you up to date if I end up adding more to my position size. Remember a second link in the description down below.

If you guys are ready to join our team, if not, no hard feelings again, feel free to send me a direct message if you have any questions before joining. I Wish you guys nothing but the best. Continue working hard, continue following dreams. Let your passion be adjusting your success.

And like always, let's.