Test test, one two: three test test: one: two: three: all right: what's going on guys going live for the fed meeting today we are expecting a 0.75 percent interest rate hike. We have jerome powell speaking in about 30 minutes, so make sure that you guys are aware of that uh. The point: seven five percent looks like it's already getting factored into the overall market. I'm gon na start sharing my screen, so you guys can see exactly what it is that i'm looking at uh, it is 11 01 am which means that it is two.

What is it? Uh, 201. Obviously uh. Let me go ahead and move this thing on over to this side, but um overall tqqqq has been pretty bullish, uh for most of the day uh. Now it's just really to see how the market's been reacted.

I don't know if you guys would agree but um it there. It goes. We have tqq beginning to rise right now. Let me know what you guys think about the stream quality.

The stream quality should be a little bit better, especially in comparison to what it was. Last time, so i hope that you guys enjoy that one uh. What's going on, what's going on ricky the man what's going on guys? Well, i appreciate you guys um asking for me to go, live very happy to be here and it should be fun to see. Uh jerome powell speak so i was gon na be waiting out on that.

What's up, what's up yep point, seven five percent um was just announced. Those were in the fed minutes for the fomc meeting uh and then it should be uh. Jerome powell, that's going to be speaking for just a very short period of time here it goes. I'm going to be pulling this thing up all right, it's not looking the best, but it's not looking the worst for tqqqq based off of how it's trading right.

Now i'm downloading the pdf. Give me one quick second here it goes all right. That's what we got going on right now: blah blah blah yep, yep yep, appropriate monetary policy. Here we go your gdp, hmm uh, to my understanding.

With this point, seven five percent uh rate increase uh. We have not done this in the past 30 years or, i think, nearly 30 years. I think it's 1994, the last time, uh and again, please fact check me if i'm wrong um, maybe one quick. Second there.

It goes market is dipping two point: six percent tqqq dropping when tqqq drops. That means that the nasdaq market is dropping, which means that most of our tech stocks are most likely taking a plunge. But let's be honest with what happened on friday and on thursday. I'm sorry friday and on monday i don't think i'm very surprised with that at all so yeah quickly dropping right on over here uh.

This is something that we've been talking about for quite some time i sent i, i uploaded a video literally right before this, making you guys aware of the meeting making sure that i reminded you that, as we're approaching previous highs, for you know the nasdaq market that I wanted you guys to be at least aware just in case that the market did drop. I wanted you to kind of like be aware an hour and a half ahead of time. So if you wanted to reduce your position size or if you wanted to buy more right, you can do whatever it is that you want um. So jerome powell is going to be speaking in about 25 minutes and he's also going to be speaking in tomorrow morning.

As well so so i'm long on ask qqq at 59.01. Well, spq has been performing pretty well right. So not too surprised with that one right, all right, yeah tkq dropping as of right now um. I i don't think this point.

Seven five percent is catching many people off. You know guard at all by any means, so yeah, let it bleed uh. This is what we're, anticipating and um, if anything right, instead of trying to predict the bottom by allowing it to bleed that just means that we get a have it at a uh, lower price win, so it's locked in some profits flame boy, i, like that, looks Like we might be going into the red for tqq, i'm trying to read these different things, how much lower do you think that this will go again? I i not here to predict the future right just here to prepare for it. So, regardless of how low it goes, if you keep a healthy position, size, meaning not so much but also not so little, it doesn't matter how low it goes right.

We all know that, after a period of time, markets do end up recovering. So, let's just be aware of that, all right, yep live stream will begin in 20 minutes. There is, i hope that you guys are aware of this. There is no live stream um until jerome powell speaks and that's in 20 minutes from now.

So please be aware of that um, so it's spot some sqq now doing very well, thanks ricky for the channel lps changement loads. Happy to hear that. So here we go yep all right three minutes ago updated just so you guys can see why the market's reacting um, so we got feds raised by 0.75 again, not much of a surprise largest increase since 1994. So we were correct on that.

Inflation is running at a 40-year high since 1987, if i'm not mistaken and officials have agreed to a 0.75 percent uh point increase uh in the two-day policy meeting, including wednesday uh, which will increase fed's benchmark federal funds by from 1.5 uh and 1.75. So again, i think just because of how how bad the cpi debt is - and i don't know if you guys would agree right on 0.75 percent - this was factored into the market already. I personally do not think that this is bad. This is why, on this is why, on monday, we sold off on friday, we sold off when that cpi data came out, it showcased that inflation did not peak.

That was bad. We live streamed that as well with what's going on right now i mean the market already sold off so much on monday that now it's like yeah, i mean we did pull back a little bit rightfully so right um, it's still. The market still needs to react in some form. What it actually would not surprise me if we actually end up making new highs and actually begin trading about 25, a share for something like tqqq um.

It's just it's not worse than expected, and this is one thing that you'll come to understand when it comes down to the overall market. Is that things get factored in right away when it comes down to real estate, when it comes down to other markets, it takes time for them to get factored in uh, not for the stock market. There's an instant reaction and if anything, sometimes there tends to be an overreaction uh. So please be aware of that.

No, the the when people are asking me to buy now it's not about that right, um, the the this is only part of it right. You guys, if you guys, paid attention to my previous video. What you guys must have heard me talk about. Is that them releasing the interest rate.

Hike is one thing. The guidance and expectations for the up-and-coming future is something completely different. So there's going to be a live stream in about 20 minutes and that's where jerome powell who's the head of the federal reserve is going to be speaking on what their guidance is. This is like when a company reports earnings it reacts, we reacted and then it's when the you know the actual executives speak and they give their guidance.

That is where i think most people are still scratching their head. They don't know if the feds are going to take an even more aggressive or if a one percent rate increase is on the table, because that was considered off the table right. The biggest increase that they expected as of two meetings ago was a point. Five percent right, but now we're at point seven: five percent so now asking the question: would we consider a one percent rate increase all right? So where is the guy that asked for the fbi instead of the fed? Hey, don't call my boy out right in my previous video.

I don't know if you guys watched it, but in my previous video uh i mean i get a bunch of you. You got ta, admit right. There's there's a lot of people that are just getting started in the stock market. Trust me.

I've made more silly mistakes than just that. Uh. Just a little heads up right now, cqq is showing signs of a support and we're still waiting for the fed meeting. To begin uh in about 18 minutes, we will be live streaming.

It and i'll be showing the video here so just make sure that you're aware of that um. But we had someone comment in my previous video, like i kept talking about the feds, because that's what they're referred to right, the federal reserve they're, the ones that raise interest rates. They just announced what they announced right. This person asked what does the fbi when i refer to them as the feds have to do with raising interest rates and it's uh.

You know it's it's a an honest mistake from someone. That's just getting started right. All righty. Do you guys have any questions? We're up three percent on the day, it's like i, i saw a lot of people get very excited unless you're day trading, t kiki q and even day trading, i mean we're literally at that break even period.

If you guys look at where tq q opened on the day, we're literally right there right, so you guys could see where it opened at we're opening at 24.07 we're actually a little shy of 2407. right now. We're at 23.95 looks like it's trying to set up for a potential reversal. Macd is looking good.

Rsi is looking good, let's see if we can get enough buying pressure again. Indicators are to only be used as a reference, never as an actual reason on why to take a trade right. I like to use them as a confirmation of like hey, is the price action. Is it actually indicating signs of an uptrend something that we can follow up with, but all right, 15 minutes a little bit over 15 minutes before the live stream begins here it goes a pretty nice setup for a day trade on t qqq.

What is this a four percent set up, dude, i'm like choking on this i'm trying to. I haven't had lunch yet so i had my little like meal prep thing. Please excuse me if, if you guys don't want to hear me eat, i'm i'm a light eater anyway. So it's fine, it's just chicken and mashed potatoes.

So i have a full position on t qqq. This is why we talk about position size i mean um. I i can't stress this enough right. We try to preach in.

I don't know what other youtubers do i mean i really don't watch other people, but one of the things that i hope that you guys understand from our channel is we always try to take the downside risk into consideration. I feel like every other youtuber and rightfully so they do a great job making you aware of what stocks have potential great, but let's be honest stocks going up. That's only part of trading. That's only part of investing.

What about protecting your downside, if anything? In my opinion, that's even more important right, which is why we try to preach why it's so important to manage your position size, it's not about averaging down right and making sure that you put yourself in a position that you can tolerate. Literally, the video that i uploaded right before this, i didn't need to up upload another. A video and people get upset like ricky. Why are you uploading a video an hour beforehand if, if you're not gon na, if you're not gon na live stream in that video - and it's like - i want to give the beginner trader and beginner investor a chance and a heads up of what's about to happen Because i know that that's what i would have appreciated before i got started trading, i don't know about you guys.

I hope that you guys do appreciate it. I hope that you guys know that i always try to look out for your downside and taking risk into consideration because that's a huge part of trading - and i really hope that you understand that um yeah, who i don't know what's going on, i can, i think I can ban them what is yeah if you guys continue to spam. We're gon na have our guys we're gon na have our guys uh block. You live stream starts in 12 and a little bit over 13 minutes.

Please make sure that you're, aware of that, if you guys have any questions that you guys would like to ask me, feel free to ask it in the chat, but please be respectful to other people. Yep um, the feds did announce it's a point um. I don't. I don't know if i should like have it in this just so when people are coming on in, they can see it, so maybe i will, or at least a little bit i just don't want to keep answering.

I still think that i still think that we'll be getting the question all right. Let's see if i can put it here there. It goes super nice reversal on t qqq. There goes the feds announced just a couple minutes ago, so i hope that you guys can see this feds announce a rate interest, uh interest rate hike of 0.7.

I'm gon na have that over here. Just so all the people that keep asking you guys could clearly see it uh for your, for your sake, all right so need this relief rally for sure yeah i mean, i guess i guess it is a little relief for oh shoot. I guess it is a little relief rally right. I mean markets on monday, sold off nearly 14, then being up five percent.

It's like it's kind of like that. Meme. Have you guys seen where, like it's like, a a chart of something selling off like twenty thirty percent and then something going up like two or three percent, then like hooray, i feel like what this is. What this is uh with the markets barely going up but yeah a lot of us um or a lot of people get very excited and yeah.

I'm very grateful that today is not a um red day, especially leading to it being so important. So i 100 agree with that. Um, let's see how many people we have in here. All right looks like we have.

We have 273 likes, but yet we have over 3 000 people guys i'm i'm kind of offended what i thought we would do better than that. So 0.75 isn't going to do and stop inflation. It's just to push us deeper into inflation. Uh.

Some people are just a little bit too much for me. Do you guys want me to? I mean i've shared my opinions, many times uh many time before uh when it comes down to the cpi data, so um. I think when that cpi data came out on friday, it was made very clear that the interest rate hikes that they were doing or showing uh or putting into effect uh we're not doing much. I agree with you, but my biggest concern is, if you actually look at that cpi data, a majority of what's gone up, is oil and oil and and what trickles down to other areas as in retail and transportation services that is influenced by oil prices.

My concern is: is you can try to increase interest rates as much as you want, but if you do not fix our supply issue for oil, how will we actually see a decrease or a peak in our inflation if oil has the biggest influence on that data? It's one of the biggest factors of month over month that has seen the biggest increase. That is my biggest concern of you know. The feds can't do anything when it comes down to that it has to be our person in power that has to take accountability and put things into effect, regardless of what it is regardless. If you agree, i i i saw a couple of the other comments um when it came down to like i guess it's just dependent on what you see to be more sustainable right, um what they were saying like no like he's pushing us towards a a cleaner Future with ev vehicles, who is like the leader in eevee, i feel like it's pretty safe to say regardless, if you like him or not, it's elon, musk, right and yvonne, even elon has openly said that, although eevee is something that we should definitely work towards, this Will not this like this is not a sustainable nor possible like we need a solution for oil right now and even someone that is so pro eevee for them to openly speak out about that.

I think just speaks of volumes. Let's hit 1 000 likes yeah. Let's see what we're at 856 likes, i appreciate you guys, thank you guys for tuning in. I really do appreciate it.

Make sure that you guys subscribe to the channel um our our team got up, not they didn't get upset, but uh. We did a giveaway on the last um live stream. Maybe we'll do a giveaway today, maybe we'll do a giveaway right before um the actual uh jerome pal uh live stream so hit that like button, i don't know how many likes we need to hit. What do you guys think 50 of you guys should hit 1500 likes all right? Those giveaways are fun yeah.

It seems like a lot of you guys enjoy them. There's there's a comment right now in the chat. That's saying, elon doesn't make money from selling cars. It's government subsidies, although i do agree that do i believe that tesla would have been possible without government subsidies, probably not right.

I do agree that i mean it's an incentive that was made available for ev vehicles, there's a lot of subsidies for a bunch of different areas, there's a lot of other ev vehicles that were offered the same subsidies. Yet tesla was the one that came out on top so for you to discredit all of their success and attribute it only because of those subsidies. I think just speaks a lot or maybe says a lot about yourself and that's just the thing it's just like. There's people like you that uh will blame and or try to bring down people for no apparent reason right.

It's like i get it tesla and it probably would not have been as easily attainable. Nor would it be where it is today, if it wasn't for those government subsidies right, but to my understanding right, it wasn't just tesla that would offer these subsidies if something is offered and someone takes advantage of it right, rightfully so they're put in place for a Reason and that's the part that i just do not um yeah, it's not, i mean that's not how all of their money is made right, they're on track to sell more model wise this year than any other automaker. Is that all because of subsidies? It's like yeah? Everyone starts somewhere and a lot of these companies right, especially when they're put up against gm and ford and all of the big um. You know automakers, they have a lot playing against them, so they created government programs such as these subsidies that gave out grants and loans and guess what i mean he became the richest man in the world, not bad yeah.

I just don't understand why i discredit someone's success. It's like you, try to do it then fisker try to do it. Where are they at right? It just it's mind-boggling to me how people are so opinion about something that they have. You know really no ground to to speak on.

I i just don't necessarily get it all right, so we have about six minutes a little bit under six minutes before they go live broke people find it entertaining to discredit others because they have no imagination. I i wouldn't put it like that. I just think it's like it's always the most opinionated people that most often have the least ground to you know speak on that subject and or they use one little piece of yeah. They they were based off of subsidies, and it did play a huge incentive, it's great, to speak on it right, but to attribute all of their success solely based off of that.

No, it's there's a lot of government subsidies for a lot of different companies that never end up getting relatively close to the success that tesla nor elon have experienced. So it's if you're going to use one thing as an example, use it for everything else in skill. As well, it's jealousy, it often is yeah all right. There we go 1100 likes.

I appreciate you guys: let's go ahead and get this ready for uh jerome powell he's going to be speaking in just a couple of minutes again make sure just in case it gets disconnected in about three minutes. They will be hosting this live stream um. I, like that uh they will be hosting uh. The live stream for jerome powell to be speaking so make sure in case this video gets disconnected that you guys subscribe to the channel and turn on your post notifications.

All right, let's see if we can pull it up here, we go all right. This one's going to be fun. I really do appreciate. I mean there's a lot of different things that you guys could be doing right now right, but you guys are choosing to tune on into a live stream having to do with the overall stock market, and it just it just shows how eager it is that you Are to learn more and do better, and i think that says a lot regardless.

If you guys follow me or not or subscribe to me, it doesn't. Who cares right in the grand scheme of things? It's i'm happy to see that there's. So many of you guys across the world that are so passionate about investing so kudos to you all right setting it up. We got a little bit under three minutes.

Let's go ahead and set up this live stream again, make sure you guys drop a thumbs up. It's not too much to ask all righty it up right here we got it. We got it. Okay, again, one of the big things for those that are just starting to tune on in.

I want to make sure that you guys have access to this uh. The feds just announced a 0.75 percent increase. This was factored into the market already, so we're not very surprised about it. Um.

What now we are waiting to see is jerome. Powell is going to be speaking for those that don't know who jerome powell is. He is the head of the federal reserve is going to be giving his guidance and expectation of what they intend to do in the up and coming future. This is probably one of the most important parts of this fed meeting.

What they released were the fed minutes. This is when they meet up and they break down. You know as a party of what they're, okay with you know, raising interest rate at now, it's more about the guidance for the up-and-coming future and for future interest rate hikes. What is off the table? What is on the table and again, then then the market reacts based off of what is said so a monster was attacking.

The team looks like we are starting pretty soon, all right, let's go ahead and add this to it. Okay, can you guys see the live chat on the right hand, side you guys should be able to see it right and just a little heads up for those that care. I'm sorry. I actually said it was tomorrow, but it's not tomorrow.

It's gon na actually be on friday. Uh jerome powell is going to be speaking at 8 45 a.m. This is about 45 minutes before the market opens. So please make sure that you're aware of that.

This is friday, uh june 17th june 17th. Here it goes all right, i'm gon na shut up, so you guys can hear him all right. Can you guys see it? Okay, i'm gon na put myself in the little corner. All right, let's see which way the markets go, looks like they're waiting for him to walk out here.

It goes big jp all right. Good afternoon i will begin with one overarching message: we at the fed understand the hardship that high inflation is causing we're strongly committed to bringing inflation back down and we're moving expeditiously to do so. We have both the tools we need and the result that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of american families and businesses. The economy and the country have been through a lot over the past two and a half years and have proved resilient.

It is essential that we bring inflation down if we were to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all from the standpoint of our congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. The current picture is plain to see. The labor market is extremely tight and inflation is much too high. Against this backdrop, today the federal open market committee raised its policy interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in that rate will be appropriate.

In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet, i'll have more to say about today's monetary policy actions. After briefly, reviewing economic developments overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter as unusually sharp swings in inventories and net exports. More than offset continued strong underlying demand, recent indicators suggest that real gdp growth has picked up this quarter with consumption spending remaining strong. In contrast, growth in business, fixed investment appears to be slowing, and activity in the housing sector looks to be softening in part, reflecting higher mortgage rates.

Markets drop it. The tightening and financial conditions that we've seen in recent months should continue to temper growth and help bring demand into better balance with supply. As shown in our summary of economic projections, fomc participants have marked down their projections for economic activity with the median projection for real gdp growth running below two percent through 2024., the labor market has remained extremely tight with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low job vacancies. At historical highs and wage growth elevated over the past three months, employment rose by an average of 408 000 jobs per month down from the average pace seen earlier in the year, but still robust improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread, including for workers at the Lower end of the wage distribution, as well as for african-americans and hispanics labor demand is very strong, while labor supply remains subdued with the labor force, participation rate little changed since january.

Fomc participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance. Easing the upward pressures on wages and prices, the median projection in the sep for the unemployment rate rises somewhat over the next few years, moving from 3.7 at the end of this year to 4.1 percent in 2024 levels that are noticeably above the march projections. Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in april total pce prices rose 6.3 percent, excluding the volatile food and energy categories.

Core prices rose 4.9 percent in may. The 12-month change in the consumer price index came in above expectations at 8.6 percent, and the change in the core cpi was 6 percent. Aggregate demand is strong, supply constraints have been larger and long lasting than anticipated and price pressures have spread to a broad range of goods and services. The surge in prices of crude oil and other commodities that resulted from russia's invasion of ukraine is boosting prices for gasoline and food and is creating additional upward pressure on inflation and covet ready covert.

Related lockdowns in china are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. Fomc participants have revised up their projections for inflation this year, particularly for total pce inflation. Given developments in food and energy prices, the median projection is 5.2 percent this year and falls to 2.6 percent next year and 2.2 percent in 2024.. Participants continue to see risks to inflation as weighted to the upside.

The fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and price and stable prices for the american people. My colleagues and i are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks high inflation poses to both both sides of our mandate and we're strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving economic environment. Our policy has been adapting and it will continue to do so.

At today's meeting the committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by three quarters of a percentage point, resulting in a one and a half percentage point increase in the target range. So far this year, the committee reiterated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate point, seven, five years continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet, which plays an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy. Yep. Coming out of our last meeting in may, there was a broad sense on the committee that a half percentage point increase in the target range should be considered at this meeting if economic and financial conditions evolved in line with expectations, we also stated that we were highly Attentive to inflation risks and that we would be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.

Since then, inflation has again surprised to the upside. Some indicators of inflation expectations have risen and projections for inflation this year have been revised up, notably in response to these developments. The committee decided that a larger increase in the target range was warranted at today's meeting. No okay.

This continues our approach of expeditiously moving our policy rate up to more normal levels, and it will help ensure that longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at two percent, as shown in the scp. The median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 3.4 percent. At the end of this year, a percentage point and a half higher than projected in march and 0.9 percentage point above the median estimate of its longer run value. The median projection rises.

Further to 3.8 percent at the end of next year and declines to 3.4 percent in 2024, still above the median, longer run value. Of course, these projections do not represent a committee plan or decision, and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now, over coming months, we'll be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down consistent with inflation returning to 2, we anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate. The pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy. Clearly today's 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one and i do not expect moves of this size to be common.

That's good from the perspective of today, either a 50 basis point or a 75 basis, point increase seems most likely at our next meeting. Okay, we will, however, make our decisions meeting by meeting and will continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as we can look at the hatching focuses to bring inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keep longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Making appropriate monetary policy in this uncertain environment required that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways. There we go.

Inflation has obviously uh surprised to the upside over the past year and further surprises could be in store watch out for that resistance at 25.00 to incoming data and the evolving outlook. And we will strive to avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain time. We are highly attentive to inflation, risk risks and determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The american economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment, employment and price stability goals. Thank you and i look forward to your questions all right.

Let's, let's see what these questions. Thank you, howard, schneider with reuters um. Do you feel you uh boxed yourself in with the language you used at the last press conference on 50 basis, point hikes in june and july, and would you please give us as detailed sense you can of what role you played in reshaping market expectations so quickly On monday, so um, as you know, we we always aim to provide as much clarity as we can about our policy intentions, subject to the inherent uncertainty in the economic outlook, because we think monetary policy is more effective. When market participants understand how policy will will evolve when they understand our objective function, our reaction function and, in the current highly unusual circumstances, with inflation.

Well, above our goal, we think it's helpful helpful to propriety, provide even more clarity than usual again subject to uncertainty in the outlook so um and i think, over the course of over the course of this year. Financial markets have responded, uh and and have generally shown that they understand the path where we're uh we're laying out it. Of course, it remains state independent um check this out, and so that's what we generally think about guidance and that's why we offer it and of course, when we offered that when i offered that guidance uh at the last meeting, i did say that it was subject To the economy performing about in line with expectations, eight percent on the day hitting nine percent, we are overbought on the day. If data came in worse than expected, then we would consider moving even more aggressively so uh we, oh that's not that good got the.

We got the cpi data yeah and also some data on inflation expectations uh late last week and we thought for a while and we thought well. This is the appropriate thing to do so. Then the question is: what do you do and do you wait six weeks to do it at the next meeting, and i think the answer is that's not where we are with this, so we decided we needed to go ahead, and so we did. I think that's good and uh they're proactive about it.

That's really how we made the decision. Thanks for taking our questions, gina smiling with the new york times you. I guess i wonder if you could describe for us a little bit how you're deciding how aggressive you need to be so obviously 75 today, what did 75 achieve that 50 wouldn't have, and why not just go for a full percentage point at some point sure. So if you take a step back, what we're looking for is compelling evidence that inflationary pressures are abating and that inflation is moving back down and we'd like to see that in in the form of a series of declining monthly inflation readings.

That's what we're looking for and by this point we had actually been expecting to see clear signs of at least inflation flattening out and ideally beginning to decline. We've said that we'd be data dependent, focused on incoming data, highly attentive inflation risks. The things that i mentioned to howard moments ago, so, contrary to expectations, inflation again, surprise to the upside indicators. Some indicators of inflation expectations have risen, uh and projections of this year have moved up, notably, so we thought that strong action was warranted at this meeting and today we delivered that in the form of a 75 basis, point rate hike as i mentioned.

So what was the the point of it really? Is this um we've been moving rates up, uh expeditiously to more normal levels and over the course of the seven months since we, since we pivoted and began moving in this direction, we've seen financial conditions tighten inappropriately so, but the federal funds rate, even after this move, Is at 1.6 percent so again the committee is moving rates up expeditiously to more normal levels and we came to the view that um we'd like to do a little more front, end loading on that. So i think that the scp gives you the levels that people think are appropriate at given points in time. This was really about the speed with which you would get there. So, as i mentioned, we 75 basis points today.

I said the next meeting could could well be about a decision between 50 and 75. That would put us at the end of the july meeting. You know in in that range in that more normal range and that's a desirable place to be because you begin to have more optionality there correct about the speed with which you would proceed check that out almost ten percent on the day talking about the scp for A second, what it really says is that committee participants widely would like to see policy at a modestly restricted, restrictive level at the end of this year, and that's six months from now, and you know so much data and so much can happen. So remember how highly uncertain this is, but so that is generally a range of three to three and a half percent.

That's where people are and that's that's what they want to see, knowing what they know now and understanding that we need to be. We need to show result but also be flexible to incoming data as we see it. If things are better, we don't need to do that much so and if they're not, then we you know either do that much or possibly even more, but in any case it will be very data dependent check it out you're. Looking ten percent ten percent on the day, t q q q q and in three and a half to four percent, and that's generally, what people see as the appropriate path for getting inflation under control and starting back down and then getting back down to two percent.

So 75 basis points seemed like the right, the right thing to do at this meeting and um and uh. That's what we did nice steve, leesman cnbc. Thank you for taking my question, mr chairman um. You have not used the phrase in a long time.

Monetary policy is in a good place, which is a phrase that you used to use. Often now that the committee is projecting four percent on a 3.8 percent next year in terms of the funds rate uh, which is similar to where the market is now. The futures market of four percent funds right next year: do you think, that's a level that is going to be sufficiently high enough to deal with and bring down the inflation problem and just as a follow-up, could you break that apart? For me, how much of that is restrictive and how much of that is a normal positive rate that ought to be embedded or not in your opinion, in the funds rate. Thank you sure.

So the question really is: how high does the rate really need to go, and this is you know, the estimates on the committee are in that range of three and a half to four percent, and how do you think about that? Well, you can think about the the longer run, neutral rate. You can compare it to that and we think that's in the mid twos. You can look frankly at broader financial conditions. You can look at you know: asset prices.

You can look at the effect you're having on the economy rates, asset prices, credit spreads. All of those things go into that you can. You can also look at the yield curve and ask all along the yield curve. Where is what, where is the policy rate? So a quick little heads up this.

This is for our traders, not for our long-term investors. I'm choosing to hold again my main focus. Every single time is making you guys aware when things are overbought tqqq is up nearly 10. On the day it looks like that's going to be the resistance level for the day.

Most often any reaction tends to be an overreaction in the market intra day. So if your intention was to day trade, then please be aware of that and what is going on right now. It is very, very overbought by tqqq being at 10 on the day. That means that the nasdaq is at over 3.3, the amount of days that it's closed over three percent into the four percent in the green have been very, very slim, meaning that it could potentially pull on back.

I'm making you guys aware of this, as i would hate for you guys to give back all your profits. If that was not your intention, if you want to hold hold, but if you want to lock in profits - and that was your intention - i just want to make sure that, as if you're a beginner trader that you are aware of that sorry for interrupting just wanted. You guys to be aware we can affect with our with our policy tools. There are many things we can affect.

Uh and - and those would be - you know things the the commodity price issues that we're having around the world due to the war in ukraine and um, and the fallout from that, and also just all of the supply side, things that are still you know, pushing upward On inflation, so that's that's really how how i think i would think about it. Four percent get it done. Does it get the job done and breaking back? I think it's certainly a in the range of plausible numbers. I think we'll know when we get there really.

I mean honestly, though, that that would be you would have positive real rates. I think in inflation coming down by then i think you'd have positive real rates across the curve um. I think that you know the neutral rate is pretty low these days so uh. I i would think it would, but you know what we're going to we're going to find that out.

Empirically we're not we're not going to be completely model driven about this. We're going to we're going to be looking at at this keeping our eyes open and reacting to incoming data both on financial conditions and on what's happening in the economy. I like that, thanks nick timmers of the wall street journal, uh charpelle you've said that you, like your policy to work through expectations and now. Obviously, this decision was something quite different from how you and almost all of your colleagues had set those expectations during the intermeeting period, and i know you just said that what changed was really the inflation data, the inflation expectations data, but i'm wondering on the inflation expectations Data was there something you saw that was unsettling enough to risk eroding the credibility of your verbal guidance by doing something so different from what you had socialized before.

So if you look at it, we look at a broad range of inflation expectations, so you've got the public. You've got surveys of the public and experts and and you've also got market based, and i think, if you look across that broad range of data, what you see is that expectations are still in the place very much in the place where short term inflation is going To be high but comes down sharply over the next couple of years, that's that's really where inflation expectations are and also as you get away from this episode, they get back down close to two percent, and so this is really very important to us that that remain The case - and i think, if you look for most measures higher lows, that's what you see. That's just science. If we even see a couple of indicators that that bring that into question, we we take that very seriously.

We do not take this for granted. We take it very seriously, so the preliminary michigan reading it's a preliminary reading. It might be revised. Nonetheless, it was quite eye-catching, and - and we noticed that we also noticed that that the index of common inflation expectations at the board has moved up after being pretty flat for a long time, so we're watching that and we're thinking.

This is something we need to take seriously, and that is one of the factors. As i mentioned, one of the factors in our deciding to move ahead with 75 basis points today was what we saw in inflation expectations, we're absolutely determined to keep them anchored at two percent uh. That was one of the reasons the other was just the cpi reading. So if you saw a movement like that again, another tick up in inflation expectations uh, would that put a 75 or even 100 basis.

Point increase in play at your next meeting. You know we're gon na i'll, just say we're going to react to the incoming data and uh appropriately. I think so. I i wouldn't want to put a number on what that might be.

The main thing is to get to get rates up and and then pretty soon, we'll be in an area where, where, where we're, i think, as you get closer to the end of the year you're in you're, in a range where you've got restrictive policy, which is Appropriate 40 40-year highs in inflation. We think that policy is going to need to be restricted and we don't know how restrictive so um. I think that's how we'll take it. That was a weird answer: uh hi chair pal neil irwin from axios.

Thanks for taking our questions, um the the late breaking kind of decision to go to 75 basis points, do you worry that that will make policy guidance, a less effective tool in the future uh, and should we think of that as a kind of symmetrical reaction function? If we start to get soft readings on inflation or if uh labor market starts to roll over, i'm going to quickly wrap up. If you guys want to continue to watch it again, you guys can go to the federal reserve youtube channel, but one of the things that i quickly want to wrap up my computers already over um overheating is: why did the market push up? This is a question that i see a lot of you guys are asking right now: uh, the the biggest thing is that the market sold off on friday and the market sold off on monday. The monday's reaction was that, because of the cpi data that came out on friday, it was made very clear that the 0.5 increase that the fed was previously taken into consideration was not expected. I actually think that if the fed only raised interest rates 0.5 percent - that it probably would have caused the market to sell off more because they're, taking on the challenges that the stock market has to uh or not stock market, but that um inflation has to offer.

Not head-on - and you guys heard him say this himself, where it is so important for them because of where inflation is, inflation is at 40-year highs with that being said, by raising interest rates 0.75 and approaching it head on sure they could have raised it. Maybe one percent, if needed right, but at least by trying to be more aggressive up front and if they see it actually doing better, then they at least then have more to work with, rather than taking a more or a less aggressive approach of staying. At the point, five percent and then seeing later on of oh yeah, now we're really going to have to increase it from point five percent and maybe one percent, so there's no right or wrong. And i i can see that there's going to be a lot of people that are going to be agreeing to disagree, um and rightfully so that is your opinion and, and that is your right as an american - i'm not here to convince you, i'm just you know.

There's only specific tools that the federal reserve uh really have an effort to try to fight inflation uh and at least to myself right to me. It sounds like they are trying to be proactive in the in the tools that they use and how aggressive they approach. It because they are taking it seriously. So why is the market reacting? I think the market is respecting how aggressive the feds are choosing to take on and really fight back inflation.

That is my take on it and you guys can share your comments. Uh down in the comment section but um other than that, i still personally think that, because of that cpi data, i still think that oil needs to be a really big focus, and this has nothing to do with the federal reserve. The federal reserve cannot make a policy on oil itself, so therefore, i think that's where our president needs to come in and or congress and come up with a policy and or a solution for our supply issue. If everything in our cpi data is being negatively influenced because of the price of oil, then why is all the blame being put on the feds when the feds cannot make up any form of policy to aid oil and the supply issue that we currently are experiencing? I'll leave you guys with that, but i really do appreciate your guys's time friendly reminder.

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I think, based off of what was expected of this fed meeting, seeing how it reacted. Uh is a step in the right direction, but friendly reminder the last thing that i do. Oh, it looks like my camera already uh turned off um. My camera was overheating, like i told you guys, so i do apologize for that um.

But the last thing that i do want to share with you guys is how important it is right now during uncertain times, to take your position size into consideration. This happened shortly after the previous fed meeting, where they increased interest rates. 0.5. The initial reaction was positive and then the day after it was actually the well the next trading day, it was bearish.

So what i want to remind you is just based off of my experience and what i've seen happen before reducing position, size and or staying light with your position. It's never a bad idea, especially when markets are super super bearish again just making sure that we take downside risk into consideration. I really do appreciate you guys time. I hope that you know i earned your thumbs up in this video.

Please do not forget to subscribe. I upload new videos every single day and, like always, let's make sure that we in the year on a green now take it easy team.