What's going on guys, It's Ricky with tackled Solutions Today is going to be the Fomc meeting Jerome Powell should be having a press conference shortly after. I'm gonna give it a couple of seconds for those that are just tuning on in to kind of get, uh, get caught up, uh with the live. But overall NASDAQ Market In the green point, three percent, we are at that previous resistance range. right If we go to that four hour time frame, we are testing previous highs of around 310 314.

It looks like it's a perfect setup for a potential breakout or a potential pullback. right? We are overbought enough that based off of recent patterns, if it doesn't go according to plan, we could pull on back. but it's been so bullish that because of how much momentum the market has picked up with the idea that the Federal Reserve might stop interest rate hikes altogether because of the uncertainty of what's going on with the banks, this could really catapult the stock market to new highs, right? So right now NASDAQ has, uh QQQ has highs of 314. we're currently trading at 311 and you guys can let me know in the live chat what you think is going to happen.

So what's up, What's up, What's going on guys, What's going on Justin is loud I have no control over the music guys. Um, I'm still in Hawaii it's 7 50 in the morning over here I Wanted to make sure that I went live for you guys, but I'm in the hotel lobby and I have no way to be able to change the music. so I do apologize if it does bother you, but it's just something that I have to work with as of right now. Hope that's okay with you.

so I do appreciate you guys time. I Hope that you guys learned something new. most importantly, and if so, please consider dropping the thumbs up and subscribing. uh, if you haven't done so already.

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I will never reach out to you first like plain and simple right: never reach out to you first I Offer one service and one service only and that's all. PP And that's that second link in the description down below. That is all but I Just wanted to make sure that we talk about that. Uh, all right here we go.

one minute time frame. so we have about eight minutes left until the Fomc meeting report is released. So pretty much, um, for those that are a little bit newer, this is directly from the Federal Reserve.gov website. You can see that at 2 Pm Eastern time, there's going to be an Fomc meeting.

It's not an actual meeting. They already had the meeting itself. This is when the report gets released and you know you can try to look for the report and I'll I'll go ahead and I'll pull it up. You should be able to pull it up under press releases.

It's going to populate under 322, right? Uh, 2023. That's going to be the newest report that is released under the Federal Reserve. One of the things that I want to remind you is that the market reacts to this instantly. It's it's not a let me read the report and then you know I'm gonna have time to decide.

You know which way to go. The market reacts instantly. If you're an absolute beginner, today might be a day where you sit back and watch, right? The reason I'm saying this is not because I want you to miss out on oh my God you can make a ton of money. It's not about that, right? Just as you can make a ton of money, You could also lose a lot of money, right? There's a lot of volatility on on days like this.

So I'm just here to remind you about the uncertainty and due to the risk of the volatility why it could be of greater risk for beginners. So again, my job here on YouTube is just to look out for the beginner. Trader If you still choose to take a position all power two, you're an adult. You can do whatever you want.

Please just watch your position size right if you go long. If you go short depending on Market Direction the way that we normally trade that are you know for those that are part of LBP We wait for the market to react. If it's bullish, we'll go along. If it's bearish, we'll go short.

We watch our position size because we understand on days like this they come of at super high risk. So I'm going to make sure or I need to post on Instagram very quickly that we are going live. Uh, here on YouTube If you guys can, do me a favor and um feel free to say what's up in the live chat. So again, if you guys want to partake in the live chat you do need to be subscribed to the YouTube channel and turn on your post notifications.

But on the live chat feel free to say what's up uh and you will come out on my Instagram story. So I'll give you guys a couple of seconds and we'll go from there ready. Five, four, three to one. Let's go foreign.

There we go. Yep, a handful of you. Okay, you guys will have to let. Oh my goodness you guys will have to let me know.

Uh if you end up seeing yourself in on my story, Alrighty easy peasy. how's your guys's day going? So far everything going good, going good, feeling good I like that can I get can I see a show of hands? Oh I actually I feel like I can write I'm gonna make a pull right? We have five minutes left until the report comes out. Um so I'm gonna start a poll and the question is going to be um what? yeah I feel like it just should be What position are you in? Are you long? mini going bullish? short or are you cash right? I Think that's gonna have to be the the question to ask right now. Are you long short or cash? meaning that you don't have an open position due to the uncertainty Right here we go.

All right, we are live. Okay, so it looks like cash is the winner so far. So we have a few people going short, a few people going long. Cash cash.

Some of you guys might be asking why would anyone be cash right now You know there's no I See no point in there being, uh, someone being cash. One of the things that we want to remind you is that you know we have this little joke, right? Like, when in doubt, pull out. Uh, there's a lot of uncertainty with what's going to happen today. It's probably one of the most important Fomc meetings.

Uh, in a really long time. Uh, due to that uncertainty, you can either choose to be very aggressive or you can choose to be more on the conservative side of things. If they end up raising rates more than what was expected, the market can drop if they end up raising rates less than when or nothing at all. Marky can Skyrocket right at the end of it.

It's any open position is a position that's open to risk. So that's the idea. of staying cash. By staying cash, you give yourself the option of waiting for the market to react, and then you get to decide what side you want to be on.

If the market reacts bullish, you can be bullish. If the market reacts bearish, then you can go short, right? The idea is that you don't put yourself in a hopeful position, but that you put yourself in a position in which you can tolerate and you give yourself time to decide. Just wanted to explain that for those that are a little bit newer, but again, in three minutes, we will be. Um, we will be seeing the market react to this Fomc report.

So one of the things that I always say during these lives is: well, first off, I appreciate you guys taking time and choosing my live right to join. I Hope that we earn your thumbs up and I hope that you can consider subscribing so we can continue to be a value for you. The second thing is, please make sure you don't put yourself in a position in which you cannot tolerate. Right now you have two minutes to decide you can open a position, you can close the position, or you can reduce your position right.

You either do that now or forever hold your piece right. So again, hope that we can earn your thumbs up in this video. I'm excited to see the market react. Remember, you can find the actual report when it's released on thefederalreserve.gov website under press releases.

but again, it's going to be released in the next two minutes 2 P.m Eastern time or just because of my lucky trip it's 8. A.M Uh, Hawaii Time right? So we shall see which way the market reacts. Uh, less than one minute for the market to react and again I Also do have my economic calendar. so again gonna be some crazy movement right now.

So yeah, let's see which way NASDAQ ends up going here. we go testing highs. Looks like we're setting up for a potential Breakout It looks very very bullish Here it goes any second. Now let me know in the live chat what you think.

Here we go and Market's going to be reacting any second. Here we go any second. Now any second. Now watch for this big move.

here. it goes eight eight a.m which means 2 P.m Eastern Time See which way the market goes? Looks like it's still trying to decide. Wow. Normally it does not take this long for it to decide.

And wait wait wait wait wait wait watch for a fake out and there it goes. Looks like the Bulls are taking it 3, 12, 3, 28, 330. Wait, Is this it what did we come out at? Let's see here it goes. Still pushing up 0.83 We got Tiki hiku up 2.7 on the day.

Yep, 25 basis points. Let's see it. So that is still an interest rate hike, right? Expectation? Okay, is this what the market reacted right? The market would have skyrocketed if there was no interest rate hike. Is this what the market reacted? So this puts us at that.

What's going on here? Look at that freaking change of Direction Guys, look how quick that is. Again, when we talk about that, these days are extremely volatile, we are not joking around. Okay, so let's see which way we're gonna end up choosing to go. Now this brings out some uncertainty, right? because if you waited and if you stayed cash, it's like okay.

the market went on the bull side, but now it's beginning to retrace. So this is why you have to be careful with your position size and either forcing the position way too early on. right? Look at that. There it goes.

Of course, Finvis takes a day and a half already beginning to retrace that's not looking like the best setup just yet. Let's give it a little bit of time, right? I Would love to jump into Tqq if it shows signs of an uptrend, right. Allow the opportunity to earn your you know money, not just throw it at it and hope that it goes according to plan. Come on here it goes.

Testing support at that EMA Let's see if those Bulls come on back. Oh look there it goes. All right. We got Tesla back in the green we got AMD up 3.8 percent.

the Bulls are coming back. There it goes. Let's see where I am with my battery I forgot my charger in the hotel room. So beautiful setup all right.

So one of the things that I'm looking out for right now is are we showing continuous signs of progress? right? There's no reason to enter a position If All we're showing signs of is that same resistance level, right? Why trade something or buy more if there is no signs of progress as of right now, it's not looking bad. It looks like it's going to come back to try to re-test that same resistance. At 26.50 we can see 26 46 is what we hit highs of last time or 3 13, 23. And if you actually pay attention right to what we talked about earlier, we have that previous resistance range right around 314.

So A Beautiful setup from 314 to the current resistance right around 313. but again, something to pay attention to. So again, we we are going back to retest to see if we actually begin to make new highs. There goes: Bulls are coming out.

Not even one Fed member said no to the increase. Yes I will make sure I do that next time James Now now there's a little bit more of a reason to smile, right? Inflation is actually coming down. So now I can begin to use thumbnails of Jerome Powell smiling. So here it goes: 313.53 Looks like the Bulls are coming out.

We have Tqq at 26.56 Let's see if this continues. Dude, volatility is so high right now I Like the setup on Tqs, Look at that. There it goes. 26.50 20, 26, 60, 61.

give me one second. I Just want to make sure I'm paying attention to it. So I'm going to share this link with you guys so you guys all have access to it I Just want to make sure that you guys can do your own due diligence. So I'm going to share this with you guys in the live chat I'm gonna pin it if that's okay.

So if you guys want to take time and just save this link so you guys all have access to it, this is directly from the Federal Reserve.gov website, so just making sure that you guys are all aware. Okay, so this is actually um, a part that I am I don't think was taken into consideration right? So one of the things that the Federal Reserve has been needing to do is reducing their balance sheet and this is what they commented on because if they actually do begin to sell back, sell their mortgage back Securities or begin to reduce their balance sheet, this could cause more harm than good to Banks right? But says in addition, the committee will continue reducing its Holdings of Treasury Securities and agency debt mortgage-backed Securities as described in the previous plans. So again, I Guess the idea is that they're staying the course of actually trying to put up a fight against inflation. But um, I Don't know if you guys saw that recent article where it announced that the Federal Reserve uh is trying to increase for for a temporary part of time, right? the 250 000 minimum for the FDIC right? And there's about 19 to 20 trillion dollars and the U.S banking system right? And these are U.S banks that are FDIC secured So around 20 trillion dollars.

Can? Can you guys guess? Can you guys guess in the live chat How much money do you think? How much money do you think the FDIC has under their assets? Do you guys know what it is right? 20 trillion dollars is what they're going to have to try to ensure right as close to that as possible to uh, you know, up to 250 000. Do you know how much they have under their assets? Very close And as you guys could see based off of people participating in the live chat right, you would think that it would be something relatively close. right? If I were to tell you like hey, you know I'm the FDIC you have, you know, a million dollars out there My, you would think that like my goal would be to try to ensure as much of that as possible. No.

so 20 trillion, nearly 20 trillion, right trillion? That's with a T, right? They have about 183 billion dollars under management. So this means that if Silicon Valley bank would have failed, they barely would have been able to possibly cover maybe even that of just Silicon Valley And Silicon Valley is the 16th largest bank, so nowhere close to being in the top 10 or top five in comparison to you know, Capital Under Assets Under Management isn't that insane. So you're going to try to raise the insurance by the FDIC Yet, the actual money that you have as collateral to ensure that doesn't even get close I think it's equivalent to around 1.2 percent of what is in the U.S banking system versus what the FDIC has under assets 1.2 percent I mean I don't know about you, but that seems pretty overly leveraged don't you think? um I do want to let you guys know that um what they're called Jerome Powell is going to be speaking He should be speaking uh in the Fomc meeting conference in about 20 19 minutes sorry in 19 minutes so it's at 2 30 P.M Eastern Time or 8 30 a.m Hawaii time Okay I wanted to ask you do you want me to stay and stay live so we can hear what he has to say because normally he answers questions during that conference. he's just so yeah.

if you've never been a part of it, he just says the same thing over and over again with his comments. oh I guess I could see in the live chat that that that is an easy yes let me see. I'm not gonna I haven't looked at where we are with likes I don't even know how many of you guys are watching right now but if this, if you guys get this video to over 2 000 likes I'll stay live I'm gonna have to go get my charger though so I might leave you guys running here and if someone steals my laptop then I guess you'll be able to see who stole it right? Um, but if all right, I'm gonna give it 15 seconds, 15 seconds. Drop a thumbs up.

Subscribe to the channel if this video gets over 2 000 likes I Will stay live. Let's do a countdown. I'll do uh and we just pulled on back here on Tqq. Back to that EMA it's not looking I don't know about you guys but this is not looking as bullish as I would have assumed right? The the thing is it's the the half the quarter basis point um is already taking.

probably was already factored in right? what? What the market was really looking for was no interest rate hike that would have caused the market to Skyrocket and I think it's kind of like a letdown. so let's do a 10 second countdown and if this video is over 2 000 likes, I will stay live. If not, it's all good. I'll see you guys on the next one.

Okay, so 10. Nine, eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two one. Oh you guys are saying that I I didn't look at it I don't know where we're at right now. How many? Oh shoot heck yeah.

All right, look at that. That's all I had to ask for and look at that nice little pullback to that EMA Appreciate you guys I Really do I Really do appreciate you guys taking time and joining me for this live and it looks like the Bears are coming out. Looks like the market did not like that and I think I think a lot of it has to do with Market Was really hoping the Federal Reserve would just every like would just pause all interest rate hikes. I'm very glad that they didn't.

The reason why is that I mean we've had one Focus for 2023 and it's to not get back to where we were in 2022 right? If we stop the fight against inflation, this is just going to prolong this fight. It's just gonna make inflation go back up and we're gonna have to start this all over again. And let's be honest, unless you like shorting the market like we did right last year, you probably don't want inflation to go back up. right? and there it goes: Beautiful pullback, beautiful, beautiful pullback.

Testing the support on the moving average. Let's see if the bears actually come out and we break below that. All right. 3K likes I like that and I Do want to remind you guys that for all those that have been waiting for our biggest sale for Lpp 2.0 we are running our biggest sell right now.

It's 150 off and you earn 5 000 automatic entries for the GTR giveaway so that's for all new members. If you sign up today, you get to watch me trade live every day. It's a one-time payment lifetime access. You guys know the deal.

it's our biggest sell and on top of that you get you get entered 5 000 times automatically just for signing up to when the Nissan GTR giveaway or 50 000 cash. So again, this is the biggest thing for your buck in comparison to how you can earn entries and then on top of that, it's also our biggest sell. So if you've been waiting for our biggest discount and you've also been wanting to enter that giveaway then just know that this is like you can kill two birds with one stone. Second link in the description down below it will get you all signed up and you can watch me trade live every morning right once.

I Get back from my Hawaii trip. So I tried waking up at 3 30 I did it the first day on Monday That was rough. waking up at three in the morning to go live um wasn't wasn't enjoyable for me for the rest of the day. So RGB mouse pads I Know we need to bring the RGB mouse pads back for sure.

Bulls Are coming back? Yeah! Bulls Are testing support here at that moving average right? so we'll see. So one thing that I would look for is are we going to begin to see higher highs if we get rejected here once again. Do you guys see this descending right lower highs and lower lows? This is not a good sign if we get rejected here. So if we get rejected here and go right back down, this is a strong sign that the bull the Bulls are getting a little bit weaker, right? We're testing our support here at the EMA.

We're showing signs of lower highs now. we'll see right, looks like it is getting rejected. We haven't made progress below the moving average, but if we break below this, just understand probably a new wave of selling pressure is going to follow, right? It looks like things are getting factored in and or the market didn't like what was reported and that's an interest rate hike I Pinned it for you guys in the live chat. So if you guys want to read um, the actual you know press release by the you know Federal Reserve I linked it for you so you guys all have access to it I want to make sure that it's something you guys all have access to.

So I'm going to end the poll here and it looks like 36 said long 32 said cash Wow, that's almost as close to you. so 4.4k votes I Like that you guys did great. Here goes testing support. Watch for a potential reversal here, right? Macd looks great RSI Looks great, but let's see again.

indicators are never 100 accurate. they're to be used as a reference. We shall see if we actually begin to show signs of higher highs and higher lows. Right price action is always what matters most.

I think I'm gonna have to go to my yeah I have 13 minutes until I Need to get my charger and I left my charger in the hotel room. so I'm gonna have to leave my what's it called my laptop here and if someone steals this laptop then you guys just have to screenshot it for me. Okay um but I'm gonna race up there real quick. My daughter and my girl are still sleeping so I don't I don't think she's gonna want to bring me the charger Ricky give us a tour, take it with you I just don't want to lose reception in the elevator.

You know what I mean When will they announce the terminal right? They already did. they already announced it. So this is what the press release was and it was at 2 p.m Eastern Standard Time So now we are waiting for the press conference and that should start in just a little bit. So it's at 2 30 p.m Eastern time which is in about 12 minutes.

Okay here it goes. It looks like the Bulls are trying to come back. Let's see if we actually form some higher highs again. Never never doubt the Bulls especially when they want to come out.

So okay, very true. All right. All right. I'm gonna go get the charger.

You guys will have to keep yourself entertained in the live chat. Um yeah. so I'm gonna move this over so you guys can see yourself okay and I will be back in like five minutes. hopefully one sec.

Foreign Foreign. Thank you. Foreign. Foreign.

All right, we are back. What's up? What's up? Looks like we pulled on back a little bit retesting that EMA we are not showing signs of being super super strong. So did anyone walk by? No. Okay, and with five minutes to spare.

So Jerome Powell is going to be speaking, That's it. That's why I like that. Okay, so it looks like we're pulling on back as of right now. So much for the Bulls Again, it's still not looking bad.

Obviously, we're still above the moving average. We're still above that EMA as of right now. Um, and go on the five minute time frame. I mean NASDAQ still looks very, very bullish.

The question is, is will it continue when Jerome Powell begins to speak? If you guys remember, there tends to be not always, but there tends to be a change of Direction when Jerome Powell begins to speak. Um I I Think the big question is going to be. First off, are you going to continue interest rate hikes? Especially with everything that's going on with the you know? Banks And then the other thing is what's going on with that balance sheet, right? I Think it's very safe to say that that's going to be the primary focus and hopefully that's where that, um, where the speech goes today, right? But yeah. okay, so I will be.

uh, live streaming the speech for about 20 to 30 minutes and then after that I'm gonna have to close it out. Obviously it's my last day here in Hawaii it's not even I Mean yesterday was my last full day to actually fly back today. I have a red-eye flight? Um, so I'm just going to spend time with the family out here and then head on back to the airport. So I'm sure you guys understand and if you don't too bad, Uh, all right here it goes.

Going back to retest that same resistance at 313. appreciate you doing this on your vacation. of course. All right.

25 or 50. So they already announced the interest rate hike. the whole point of the meeting um, or the conference that they have in in the next two minutes. Um, is to have a little bit of a better understanding of how they came to that decision.

Of the 25 basis points they're they already announced that it's 25 basis points, right? We linked it here. Uh, in the live chat. it's the top pin code so you can check that out if you haven't done so already. Okay, yeah.

I Also did see some of you guys while I was gone. Um, you guys were picking up some items on shop Tech but I do want to remind you that that is another way in which you can enter the GTR giveaway. so it's Shoptechbutts.com or the fourth Link in the description down below. But listen, Okay, let's start it.

Here it goes: Thank you! Good afternoon! Before discussing today's meeting, let me briefly address recent developments in the banking sector. In the past two weeks, serious difficulties at a small number of banks have emerged. History has shown that isolated banking problems, if left unaddressed, can undermine confidence in healthy Banks and threaten the ability of the banking system as a whole to play its vital role in supporting the savings and Credit needs of households and businesses. That is why In response to these events, the Federal Reserve working with the Treasury Department and the FDIC took decisive actions to protect the U.S economy and to strengthen public confidence in our banking system.

These actions demonstrate that all depositors, savings, and the banking system are safe. With the support of the treasury, The Federal Reserve board created the Bank Term Funding program to ensure that banks that hold safe and liquid assets can, if needed, borrow reserves against those assets at par. This program, along with our long-standing discount window, is effectively meeting the unusual funding needs that some banks have faced and makes clear that ample liquidity in the system is available. Our banking system is sound and resilient with strong capital and liquidity.

We will continue to closely monitor conditions in the banking system and are prepared to use all of our tools as needed to keep it safe and sound. In addition, we are committed to learning the lessons from this episode and to work to prevent episodes from events like this from happening again. Turning to the broader economy and monetary policy, inflation remains too high and the labor market continues to be very tight. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to Bringing Inflation Back down to our two percent goal: Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve.

Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of long of strong labor market conditions that benefit all the U.S Economy slowed significantly last year, with real GDP rising at a below Trend pace of 0.9 percent. Consumer spending appears to have picked up this quarter, although some of that strength May reflect the effects of swings in the weather across the turn of the year. In contrast, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates, higher interest rates, and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment Committee Participants generally expect subdued growth to continue, As shown in our summary of economic projections.

The median projection for Real GDP growth stands at just 0.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year, well below the median estimate of the longer run normal growth rate. and nearly all participants see the risks to GDP growth as weighted to the downside. yet the labor market remains extremely tight. Job gains have picked up in recent months, with employment Rising by an average of 351 000 jobs per month.

Over the last three months, the unemployment rate remained low in February at 3.6 percent. The labor force participation rate has edged up in recent months and wage growth has shown shown some signs of easing. However, with job vacancies still very high, labor demand substantially exceeds the supply of available workers. Fomc participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on wages and prices.

The median unemployment rate projection in the SCP Rises to 4.5 percent at the end of this year, and 4.6 percent at the end of next year. Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent. Over the 12 months ending in January total Pce Prices rose 5.4 percent excluding the volatile food and energy categories core PC or excluding excluding those core Pce prices Rose 4.7 percent in February The 12-month change in the CPI came in at six percent. In the change in the core CPI was 5.5 percent.

Breaking support at moving average inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run. High The median projection the SCP for total Pce inflation is 3.3 percent for this year, 2.5 percent next year, and 2.1 percent in 2025.. the process of getting inflation back down to two percent has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.

The Fed's monetary policy actions are: Guided By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those at least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our two percent objective. At today's meeting, the committee raised the target range for the Federal funds rate by a quarter percentage Point bringing the target range to four and three quarters to five percent, and we are continuing the process of significantly significantly reducing our Securities Holdings Since our previous Fomc meeting, economic indicators have generally come in stronger than expected, demonstrating greater momentum and economic activity and inflation.

We Believe However, that events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes. It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to tell how monetary policy should respond. As a result, we no longer state that we anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate to coil inflation. Instead, we now anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.

We will closely monitor incoming data and carefully assess the actual and expected effects of tighter credit conditions on economic activity, the labor market and inflation, and our policy decisions will reflect that assessment. In our SCP each Fomc participant wrote down an appropriate path for the Federal Funds rate based on what that participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate will be 5.1 percent at the end of this year, 4.3 percent at the end of 2024, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2025.. These are little changed from our December projections reflecting offsetting factors.

These projections are not a committee decision or plan. If the economy does not evolve as projected, the path for policy will adjust as appropriate to Foster our maximum employment and Price Stability goals. We will continue to make our meeting decisions, meeting by meeting. Based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, we remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening in labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission.

We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you I Look forward to your questions. Thank you, thank you! Colby Smith With the Financial Times, how confident is the committee that the recent stress that we've seen and you've alluded to is contained at this point and that deposit flight among mid-sized lenders in particular has ceased. Thanks! So I Guess our view is that the banking system is sound and it's resilient.

It's got strong Capital liquidity. We took powerful actions with Treasury and the FDIC which demonstrate that all depositors savings are safe, that the banking system is safe. Deposit flows in the banking system have stabilized over the last week, and the last thing I'll say is that we've undertaken. we're undertaking a thorough internal review that will identify where we can strengthen supervision and regulation.

Okay, uh, just a quick follow-up I Mean given all of the stress and the uncertainty that you've also alluded to in the statement, how seriously was it? was a pause considered for this meeting, so we considered. Um, we did consider that in the Days running up to the meeting and you see the decision that we made which I'll say a couple things about. First, it was supported by a very strong consensus and I'll be happy to explain why. And really it is that the the intermediate data on inflation and the labor market came in stronger than expected.

and really before the recent events, we were clearly on track to continue with ongoing rate hikes. In fact, as of a couple of weeks ago, it looked like we need to raise rates over the course of the year more than we'd expected At the time of the SCP In December the time of the December meeting, we are committed to restoring price stability and all of the evidence says that the public has confidence that we will do so that will bring inflation down to two percent over time. It is important that we sustain that confidence with our actions as well as our words. So we also assess as I mentioned, that the events of the last two weeks are likely to result in some tightening and credit conditions for households and businesses and thereby way on demand on the labor market and on inflation.

Such a tightening and financial conditions would work in the same direction as rate Titan in Principle As a matter of fact, you can think of it as being the equivalent of a rate hike or perhaps more than that. Of course, it's not possible to make that assessment assessment today with any Precision whatsoever. So our decision was to move ahead with a 25 basis point hike and to change our guidance. As I mentioned from ongoing hikes to Uh, some some additional hikes, maybe some policy firming may be appropriate.

So going forward as I mentioned in assessing the need for for further hikes will be focused as always on the incoming data and the evolving Outlook and in particular on our assessment of the actual unexpected effects of credit tightening. Let's see: Mr Chairman can you explain um, the difference between ongoing rate increases and Firming Does firming imply a rate increase per se? Or could policy firm Without You increasing rates? No. I Think it's it's meant to refer to our policy rate. Really? I would focus on on the words may and some as opposed to ongoing ongoing.

So we we clearly were what we were doing there was taking on board the trying to reflect the uncertainty about what will happen. I Mean it's possible that this will turn out to have very modest effects. These events will turn out to be very, very modest effects on the economy, in which case and inflation will continue to be strong, in which case the you know the path will look uh might look different. It's also possible that this potential tightening will contribute significant Uh tightening in credit conditions over time and and in principle, if that that that's that means that monetary policy may have less work to do.

we simply don't know. Did today could further exacerbase problem in the banks. No. I mean we're with our Monastery policy.

We're We're really focused on macroeconomic outcomes. In particular, we're focused on on this potential credit tightening and what can that produce in the way of tighter credit conditions? I Think when we think about, uh, the situation, the banks we're focused on our on our financial stability. Tools In particular, uh, our lending facilities. uh, the the debt uh, sorry, the discount window and also the new facility.

Nick Temeros of the Wall Street Journal uh chair Powell In your testimony, two weeks ago, you had indicated you thought the terminal rate would be higher. Obviously that was before the stress in the banking sector. And I realize there's a lot of uncertainty, but can you? Can you explain it all to what extent your forecasts or those of your colleagues or those of the board staff Incorporated Today, a material tightening of credit availability because of the stress in the banking sector. Or are you waiting to see it in the data before you incorporate that potential tightening into your forecasts? So you know we've just come from an Fomc meeting and uh, you know the the people who write the minutes will be very carefully counting.

But I'll tell you what. I Heard what I Heard was significant number of people saying that they anticipated there would be some some tightening or credit conditions and that would really have the same effects as as our policies do and that therefore they were including that in their assessment and that if that did turn out not to be the case, that in principle you'd need more rate hikes. So some people did reflect that uh in their in their homes in their SCP forecasts I Think there may also just have been. remember this is 12 days ago.

You know we're trying to assess something that just is so recent and it's people you know it's very difficult, it's so much uncertainty. So December was a good place to start and we wound up with. We wound up with very similar outcomes for December and it you know in a way the the early the data in in the first part. the first five weeks of the intermediate period pointed to Stronger inflation and stronger labor market.

so that pointed to higher rates and then this. this latter part kind of uh, the possibility of of uh, credit conditions tightening really really offset that effectively. Follow-up Have you considered it all? Whether your primary tool the funds rate is going to be enough to sustain the kind of tighter Financial conditions that you believe will be necessary without doing significant damage to the banking sector, Have you, for example considered changing reserve requirements, selling assets out of the system open market account as a way to better achieve entire Financial conditions that don't uh, accelerate deposit erosion? For example from Banks You know we know that we have other other tools in effect, but no, we think our monetary policy tool works and we think, uh, you know many, many banks Uh, our rate hikes were well telegraphed to the market and many banks have managed to to handle them. Tori Aguita with Politico I Want I want to Along with the FDIC and the Treasury, the FED board decided to invoke the systemic Risk exception to allow uninsured depositors to be protected at these two.

Banks I Was just wondering if you could speak to why that decision was made. Was it purely a confidence issue or where was there a concern that there would be some sort of economic contagion or financial contagion from the failure of these Banks The issue was really not about those specific Banks but about about the risk of of a contagion to to other Banks and to the financial markets more broadly, that was the issue. Okay and then can you also just a follow-up Can you speak to the role that you will be playing in the Fed's internal investigation on its supervision and regulation? So Vice Chair Bar is is of course leading that review and uh, he's responsible for it In his capacity, it's Vice chair for supervision Uh, we uh I realized you know right away that that there was going to be a need for a review I mean the question we were all asking ourselves over that first week and was how did this happen and uh so what we did was uh early Monday morning we sat down and said let's do this and he's he was obviously going to lead it in his capacity. So I don't you know my uh, my role was to announce it and uh I get briefed on it but I'm not involved in in the work of it all right Chair Pal uh Howard Schneider from Reuters So um I want to go back to your February press conference? You mentioned the word disinflation I believe uh, nine or ten times a process that you felt was uh uh I forget the word you used but gratefully underway or something like that is disinflation still occurring in the U.S Today Yes, I mean what actually happened Howard was I got the question 12 times so it's a maybe it's a feature, not a bug but uh so.

but yeah, absolutely. The Pro: The absolutely the same. The story is is intact so it's really three parts, right? Goods Inflation's been coming down now for six months. It's proceeding more slowly than we would have liked, but it's certainly proceeding.

Housing Services is is really a matter of time passing. We continue to see the new leases being signed at much lower levels of inflation. So that's 44 of the of the core Pce index where you've got a story that's ongoing. where we didn't have in February and we still don't have now is a sign of progress in the non-housing services sector, and that is, Um, you know that's just something that we'll have to come through through softening demand and perhaps some softening in labor market conditions.

We don't see that yet, and that's that's of course, 56 percent of the index. So the story is pretty much the same. I Will say that the inflation data that we got to your point really pointed to Stronger inflation if I could follow up on that. I Was curious why you don't see more coming from the credit crunch because it seems to me that's like something that you'd actually, uh, welcome to a degree and uh, expect? um, and are you not seeing more coming from that because you don't know or because you just don't want to have another round of wishful thinking.

So it's really just a question of not knowing at this point. There's a great deal of literature on the connection between tighter credit conditions, economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Very large body of literature. The question is how significant will this credit tightening be and how how sustainable it be? That's that's the issue and we don't really see it yet.

It's so so. People are making estimates. You know, people are publishing estimates. and it's but it's very kind of rule of thumb.

uh, guesswork almost at this point. but we think it's It's potentially quite real and that argues for, you know, being alert as we go forward as we think about further rate hikes for us, we'll be paying attention to the actual unexpected effects from that. Gina Hi cheer pal Gina Smiley from The New York Times Thank you for taking our questions. Um I Wonder if you could talk a little bit I know that you've got your internal review coming.

but I wonder if you could talk a little bit about what you think happened with oversight at Silicon Valley Bank and whether this suggests that something about regulation and supervision needs to actually change going forward? And I wonder? you know? How can the American people have confidence that there aren't other weaknesses out there in the banking system given that this one got missed as you noted. So let me let me say what what I think happened and then I'll come to the questions around supervision. So at a basic level, uh, Silicon Valley Bank Management failed badly. They grew the bank very quickly, They exposed the bank to significant liquidity risk, and interest rate risk didn't hedge that risk.

We now know that supervisors saw these risks and and intervened. We know that the public saw all this. We know that Svb experienced an unprecedentedly rapid and massive Bank room. So this is a This is a very large group of connected depositors.

Concentrated group of connected depositors in a very, very fast run. faster than historical record would suggest. So Um for as for us. So for our part, we're doing a review of supervision and regulation.

My only interest is that we identify what went wrong here. How did this happen? Is the question? What went wrong? Try to find that we will find that and then make an assessment of what are the right policies to put in place so that it doesn't happen again and then Implement those policies. It would be inappropriate for me at this stage to offer my views on what the answers might be. You know I simply can't do that.

Vice Chair bar is leading this and I think he's testifying next week. So but that will be up to him. So that's really where it is that you know the Um, the review is going to be thorough and transparent. Uh, it is clear to your really to your last question.

It's clearly we do need to strengthen supervision and Regulation and I I assume that uh, you know there will be recommendations coming out of the report and I I plan on supporting them and supporting their implementation. Okay, just and the final point, you know: can we feel confident that these weaknesses don't? Exist Elsewhere given that they got missed at this Bank These are not weaknesses that are that are at all broadly through the banking system. This was A this was a bank that was an outlier in terms of both its percentage of of Uh of Um of uninsured deposits and in in terms of its uh, Holdings of duration, risk and again, supervisors did get in there and and they were. As you know, uh, obviously, uh, you know they they were, they were on this issue.

But nonetheless, this this still happened. And and so that's really the nature of the interview of sorry of the review is to discover that Michael McKee from Bloomberg radio and Television you've been very consistent in saying that the FED would be raising interest rates and then holding them there for quite some time. Uh, following today's decision, the markets have now priced in uh, one more increase in May and then every meeting the rest of this year, their pricing in rate Cuts Uh, are they getting this totally wrong from the Fed or is there something different about the way uh, you're looking at it given that you're now thinking that moves might be appropriate as opposed to ongoing. So we published an SCP today as you will have seen, and it shows that basically participants expect relatively slow growth, a gradual rebalancing of supply and demand in the labor market with inflation moving down gradually.

In that most likely case, if that happens, participants don't see rate Cuts this year, it just don't I would just say. As always, the path of the economy is uncertain and policy is going to reflect what actually happens rather than write down in the SCP. But that's not our Baseline expectation. Well, if I could follow up and ask as you look forward into the rest of the year? Here are you saying that what you see and the 5.1 percent basically consensus is based on being it will be sufficiently restrictive Or is it leavened by the idea of you don't know what's going to happen? In other words, what should people think about in terms of how the FED thinks about how far it is from the terminal, it's going to depend? Remember, we were looking for purposes of our monetary policy tool.

We're looking at what's happening among the banks and asking is there going to be some tightening and credit conditions And then we're thinking about that as effectively doing the same thing that rate hikes do so in a way that substitutes for rate hikes. So the the key is we have to have policies need got to be tight enough to bring inflation down to two percent over time. It doesn't all have to come from Radix it can come from uh, you know, from tighter credit conditions. So that we're looking at and we're we.

It's highly uncertain how long the situation will be sustained or how significant any of those effects would be, so we're just going to have to watch uh in the meantime. Uh, you know, And obviously at the end of the day, we will do enough to bring inflation down to two percent. No one should doubt that. Eagle Foreign Powell Rachel Siegel from The Washington Post Thank you for taking our questions I Know we've talked a bit about how Silicon Valley Bank was unique to a certain sector of the economy, but there's also growing concern that there are Financial stability risks from the commercial real estate market and loans that will begin to roll over later this year and next, and that smaller Regional Banks also disproportionately hold those loans.

Is there a risk that could mimic the kind of what we saw with Svb? to banks that disproportionately are focused in commercial real estate? So you know we've well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate. I Really don't think it's comparable to this. The bank the banking system is is strong. It is sound.

It is. It is resilient. It's well capitalized. Um, and uh.

I Really don't see that as at all analogous to this. The question: Would you be open to an independent investigation separate from the Fed's probe? I Welcome It's It's a hundred percent certainty that there will be independent investigations and outside investigations and all that. so we welcome when a bank fails their investigations. And of course we welcome that.

Edward Thank you Mr Chairman Uh Edward Lawrence from Fox Business Inflation has been rather sticky. So do you need help from the fiscal side to get inflation down faster? We don't assume that we don't give advice to the fiscal authorities and we we assume that um, we take fiscal policy as as it comes to our front door, stick it in our model along with a million other things and uh, we have responsibility for Price stability. The Federal Reserve has a responsibility for that and nothing is going to change that. So we and we will get inflation down to two percent in time.

and if I can follow on that. but they're working the the spending that's happened is working against what you are doing right? So it's prolonging inflation. You know, if you you have to look at Um, at the impulse from spending because spending was, of course tremendously High during the pandemic and then as the pandemic programs uh, rolled off, spending actually came down. So the the sort of fiscal impulse is actually not what's driving inflation right now.

it was. It was at the beginning, perhaps part of what was driving inflation. but that's not really the story. Now let's go to: Neil Irwin Hi Charpel Neil Erwin With Axios Two questions about aspects of the government's response on Silicon Valley Bank two weekends ago.

First, why is this new bank funding facility? Uh, done under emergency 13-3 Authority as opposed to expansion the discount window? Changing the terms of the discount window that's been around a long time. And second, can you discuss the Fed's role in Uh in the FDIC guarantee of uninsured depositors and why there's 143 billion dollars on your balance sheets last week supporting a deposit guarantee? Sure. So, 13-3 Uh seemed like the right. We have a little more flexibility on under Section 13 through we did.

We've done quite a lot under a discount window as well. We needed to do a special facility that was designed a certain way, so we did it under 13-3 Um, really no magic to that. It's only available in unusual and circumstances and it has to be meet certain requirements. but it seemed to be the right place.

So we with the FDIC we're just. we're lending to the in effect we're We're lending to the Bridge Bank, so that's where the funds came from. And it's It's a loan that's 100 guaranteed by the FDIC so there's no risk in it for us. Okay, Chris for a favor? Uh, thank you Chris Rugaber.

and Associated Press The SCB SCP suggests one more rate hike, as does the change in the language in the statement. Um, and which suggests that you're perhaps nearing the end of a cycle of rate hikes? Uh, do you feel though, that if inflation remains high, you'll be able to resume additional hikes as needed or have you somewhat tied your hands here. With these signals about rate hikes coming to an end, Thank you Absolutely not. No, we we we need to raise height, raise rates higher we will.

I think For now though we we as I've mentioned we see the likelihood of of credit tightening. we know that that can have a you know an effect on the macro economy, on demand, on labor market on inflation and we're going to be watching to see what that is. And we'll also be watching it what's happening with inflation and in the labor market. So we'll be watching all those things.

And of course we will. We will eventually get to tight enough policy to bring inflation down to two percent. Uh, we'll We'll find ourselves at that place tired. hi chair Powell Thanks for taking the question.

Kyle Campbell With American Banker I have a couple questions about the balance sheet. Uh, first of all, I'm curious. Uh, at what point the financial supports that the FED is extending, uh, through the discount window and through its enhanced lending facility might be at odds with the objective of reducing the balance sheet. And I'm also curious what your thoughts are on the not just the availability of reserves, but the distribution of them throughout the banking system and at what point you might be concerned about it being scarce for certain.

Banks So um, so people think of QE and Qt in different ways. So let me be clear about how I'm thinking about these recent developments. So recent liquidity provision that has increased the size of our balance sheet. but the intent and the effects of it are very different from what we from when we expand our balance sheet through purchases of longer term Securities Large-scale purchases of long-term Securities are really meant to alter The Stance of policy by pushing down, pushing up the price and down the rates.

longer term rates which supports demand through channels. We understand fairly well, the balance sheet expansion is really temporary lending to Banks to meet those special liquidity demands created by the recent tensions. It's not intended to directly alter The Stance of monetary policy. We do believe that it's working.

It's having its intended effect of bolstering confidence in the banking system and thereby forestalling what might otherwise have been an Abrupt and outsized tightening and financial conditions. So that's working in terms of the distribution of reserves. Um, We We don't see ourselves as as running into Reserve shortages. We think that our, you know our program of allowing our balance sheet to run off predictably and predictably and passively is working.

And of course, we're We're always prepared to to change that if that changes, but we don't see any evidence that that's changed. Hi Chair: Katarina Survival with Bloomberg News Um, the minutes of the January February meeting. the last meeting indicate that you discussed the possibility of runs on non-bank financial institutions and the impact of large, unrealized losses on Bank portfolios. Can you talk a little bit more about that discussion? kind of what was talked about in light of that and then widened the fed.

you know, do anything about that at that point to ultimately prevent you know what happened this month I Mean to be honest I don't I don't recall the specifics of that it's been. It's quite an interesting seven weeks, but um but I will tell you though that we we have there have been presentations about about interest rate risk I mean it's been in all the newspapers. It's not a surprise that there are institutions that have that have had unhedged long positions in long duration Securities that have lost value as as longer term rates have gone up due to our rate increases. So that's that's not a surprise.

I Think as as you know as as is now on the public record, the supervisory team was apparently engaged very much engaged with the bank repeatedly and was escalating. but you know nonetheless what happened to happen. and so that's really the purpose of one way to think about the review that Vice Chair Bar is conducting is try to understand how that happened and try to understand how we can do better and and what policies we need to change. I Mean one one thing is the speed of the I'll come back to that, the speed of the uh, the run it's It's very different from what we've seen in the past and it does kind of suggest uh, that there's a need for possible you know, Regulatory and supervisory changes just because supervision regulation need to keep up with what's hap, what's happening in the world? Can you confirm whether or not the board knew about these escalations by the Uh exam examiners in San Francisco We'll have to come back to you on that.

Yeah Simon Urban All right guys. Uh, I'm gonna have to close it out here. It is 9 00 a.m here in Hawaii Um, and it's my final day. so I'm going to be wrapping it up, but for those that just tuned on in a little bit late.

Uh, one of the links that I did share is the Federal Reserve uh. interest rate hike. Uh, you can actually head on over to the Federal Reserve.gov website. Um, and when you search up Fomc meeting, uh, it actually pops up where not only can you watch the live oh I'm sorry.

Um, it's under news and events and it pops up right here under Fomc statement. And then you can actually watch the live. So um, to summarize it, they announced a quarter of a basis point interest rate hike. Um, was it what the market wanted? Well, not necessarily.

But it's definitely not bad. Uh, summarizing that conference: Uh, more interest rate hikes could happen if it's if it's supported by economic data. So if inflation begins to show that it's not going down, then of course, they can justify being a little bit more aggressive with future interest rate hikes. but they have no intention of being more aggressive than what it is that is needed.

They're still going to be focusing on reducing their balance sheet. This is quite surprising to me because they added 300 billion dollars last week. Yet they're supposedly going to focus on quantitative tightening when they're continuing to add more uh to their balances. So if you guys have any questions, you guys know exactly where to reach out.

To me, that can be via Discord or via Instagram and that's that first or third link down below. So um, again, I Do appreciate the time that you guys took uh to watch. If you guys have any questions again, you guys know exactly how to reach out. and I it won't be tomorrow, but it'll be the day after We're going to resume our live trading sessions.

So again, that's going to be that second link down below. And again, that does earn you 5 000 automatic entries for the GTR or 50k cash giveaway. So you have any questions about that, you guys know where to message me. it's a second link down below if you guys want to, uh, redeem and get those 5 000 entries right now.

And other than that, I'll see you guys on the next one. Drop a thumbs up, Subscribe And like always, let's make sure that we're in the year 100 no Take it easy team!.