What's going on guys, It's Rick here we're talking about. Solutions The Federal Reserve Fomc minutes report is about to be released, which means the new interest rate hike is going to happen in the next four minutes. I'm going to start sharing my screen so you can see exactly what it is that I have going on here. We have the overall NASDAQ Market indicating signs of an uptrend and again the Federal Reserve is about to announce the first interest rate hike for 2023.

Here are the previous total I Think seven, right? Yeah, seven interest rate hikes, Uh, dating back to March 17th of 2022. Again, we went from overall highs of a 0.75 interest rate hike to last month of 0.5 very quickly. For those a little bit newer, uh, that might not understand what exactly is going on. Inflation was really high.

A way that the Federal Reserve can moderate is inflation is that they raise interest rates by raising interest rates. It makes it more expensive for people to borrow money, making it more expensive for people to borrow money. Obviously, it's gonna encourage or promote less growth right? when it's cheap to borrow money. Growth happens all the time, right? Dating back to 2020 2021.

Printing out all of those stimmy checks, a lot of people had money. a lot of we had very low interest rates. Economy was thriving because inflation was so high. The goal for the Federal Reserve was they need to slow down the economy.

They need to, you know, raise interest rates and therefore, that will directly hopefully impact um, you know people's spending habits. And um, you know we went from 9.1 percent from overall highs based off of the CPI data report to now current inflation rate is at 6.5 percent. The Federal Reserve was very aggressive meaning very hawkish, right from 0.75 interest rate hikes. Uh, based off of what's been factored into the market already is expected to be a 0.25 interest rate hike.

That is the current expectation from the Federal Reserve. So I will be again. Um, not just live streaming the Market's reaction. So in the next two minutes the market will be reacting to this up this interest rate hike of either 0.25 percent or if it's 0.5 percent, the market will most likely react in a negative way.

So all I have to tell you is if you cannot tolerate the market being read, then you should not have an open position right now or reduce your position size right now. I Mean that's that's the best way to put it. So we have a little bit over a minute left so far before the Federal Reserve announces and releases that interest rate hike. I Actually forgot to post this on Instagram so feel free to smile if you're in the live chat.

Huge push, huge green candle. Here it goes. Thank you Lovely, lovely, all right. Market Gapping up, we have less than one minute left.

Less than one minute left. Let's see which way the market ends up choosing to go. Are we going to be bullish? Are we going to be bearish? There we go. See which way the market reacts Bear's baby is what a lot of people are saying in the live chat bears in the house.

Here it goes any moment now. Market should be reacting positive or negative. We we will see it. Here it goes.

And Market should be reacted any second now. and it is reacting in a bearish way. Remember we are in the 290 range. Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait said.

Hold my beer, We are Not done. We are not done Our goes reacting in a negative way. So it is, to my understanding, a 0.25 interest rate hike Market's already factored it in. It doesn't surprise me.

I mean when we did the little analysis yesterday, I looked at six previous interest rate hikes and how the market reacted, and more often than not, the market sold off. Uh, the day by the end of day. So that's just something to take into consideration. So all right here it goes.

Again, this is as expected. The market shouldn't sell off like crazy. at least not not yet. Right when Jerome Powell begins to speak, that's a different question.

Um, you know he could say something. He could answer a question that might encourage it to be a little bit more on the bare side of things. But this is as expected. a 0.25 percent interest rate height is as expected.

So markets therefore going back to that break even and look at that. the Bulls are back, The Bulls are back. Test testing this resistance. Remember, we have a very common resistance range right around this 300 price point, right? Look at the past couple of trading weeks right.

Overbought. Oversold. Overbought. Oversold.

Overbought. Oversold. It's very important to understand overbought levels, right? This is where you can put yourself in trouble trouble if you do not understand when the market is oversold or overbought based off of recent patterns. Foreign taking this home.

All right, we still got a lot of people being optimistic. I Think that by the end of day. um, the market should retrace back a little bit. This isn't bad news though.

A 0.25 interest rate hike is not bad news. It's literally as expected. Um, so there's no surprise for me there. Um, there's not there.

There shouldn't be much of a surprise. Uh, for the overall Market But we all know, right? Uh, the market could say that it's expecting something and then something gets reported and then it still reacts in a negative way and then all the headlines are like, oh no, the market doesn't like. You know this 0.25 interest rate hike. It's like, well, we all knew that an interest rate hike was coming, right? This is the smallest interest rate hike that we've seen from the Federal Reserve dating back since March 17th of 2022, right? So in the previous eight interest rate hikes including today, this is the smallest right? going back to March 17th.

So not much of a surprise. there. it comes down to pow again. Market Volatility is that This is a great day for day.

Traders Being able to be able to buy the low, sell the highs, or if you're shorting the market knowing when to enter that short and to cover profits right. If you suck at risk management, if you suck at locking in profits, today is going to be one of the worst days for you because if you're greedy, if you do not know when to exit, you're going to regret today. You're going to regret trading today. Understand the conditions that you excel in, right? So um, to yeah, uh, the 0.25 interest rate height is factored into the overall Market 100 percent.

All right again. I'm not very, uh, amused by this so far. Uh, we do have again. Um Jerome Powell that's going to be speaking in 26 minutes from now I Just want to see if anything interesting happens in the next 26 minutes.

So I Want to see if the market begins to Rally if the market begins to correct itself right? Is anyone? Weeble Glitching? Nope. Everything's fine on my side. Okay, okay, there it goes. We're turning back to the bull side of things.

so young. Bulls This is where you need to understand where our our valid resistance is still right around 295. It has not changed, right? 295 is the overall Highs But realistically, a very common resistance range is right around 294.50 for QQ Cube So please get that. Uh, take that into consideration, right? It's our job to understand oversold.

Overbought. oversold. Overbought. oversold, right? And we're returning back to overbought levels.

We're trading within that range. Just respect it. There's nothing else to it. I Hope that you guys don't mind.

I Literally have not had anything to eat today. It's been a super busy day that was actually just at the airport. I was uh, we just got a hanger for my jet. so my jet was parked outside of.

um, it's like Airport parking. so it's inside the airport but it's just outdoor parking. um and now I got a hanger for it. So I was assigning the agreement and all of that for that.

So um, very excited about that. So I hope that you guys don't mind. but I am going to be eating some rice and chips. Just something to have some substance.

Hmm. here we go. Yeah, for those that are unaware. I Bought a Jet um last month or I'm sorry I forgot my Bureau I bought a jet in the month of December It's an old jet.

It's pretty much like a Honda Civic like a 1987 Honda Civic for a car, right? It's like that's the way that I view it. A lot of Aviation people try to poke fun because it is. it is really old jet. um but yeah I bought one last year.

it's been a lot of fun. Uh, we flew it I picked it up in North Carolina I had uh, the buddies that I bought it with um so I paid for it all and um, one of my partners found the deal right. That was his part of the partnership and I've told you guys this many times that you know so many people are so focused on why I don't have the money. It's like the money is like there's there's money man right? I'm a money man.

like if you find me a deal where I can make money off of it, you know I'll take care of it. You know you take care of finding the deal I'll take care of the rest and that's exactly how our partnership has worked out. and here it goes. we got.

we're approaching that 23 dollar price point I'm gonna reduce my position size a little bit. Look at that. we got T Kiki Q beginning to take off I'm going to reduce by 1500 shares on S Kiki Q So I'm gonna sell 34 600 of ask of Tkq right around 2308. So uh, do you need a pilot? No, not as of right now.

Uh, I do have pilot friends and they take care of all of that so it's been a huge learning experience. I'm working on getting my pilot's license not to fly my jet I'm gonna have to buy another plane that's going to be a prop plane? Um, but yeah I mean I I I Really do enjoy it I I Love challenging myself I Think that's why I enjoy the stock market so much. So, if you're someone that you know comes from like an aviation background and you're someone that enjoys challenges I Think that you will resonate very well with what the stock market will offer you. right? The stock market does not discriminate.

It doesn't care who you are, what you've done, how much money you have, how little you have, it's it's all about. like every single day there's new challenges. Every single season there's new challenges with, you know, fundamental technicals and it's one of my favorite things about the stock market. It's like, how can I do this every single day? Why do I wake up so early I just I Love it I Have no other words for it other than I Love working with my Learn Plan Profit Team.

You know, during our live trading sessions, it tends to most often be a lot of fun and I'm sure right! if you're part of Learn Plan Profit, feel free to share your opinion in the live chat. It's just it's a great environment to surround yourself with people that are very motivated and that are all working towards the same goal of doing well. And that's the type of community that I like to be a part of. So again, if you guys haven't done so already, um, we are running our biggest sell.

It's 150 off and it's the second link in the description. Not only do you get access to the A2Z video Lesson library, but you get access to watching me trade live every day. So again, if you're really trying to get to that next level I'd love to be of value for you. So um, here it goes.

We're going back to retest that same resistance. And again, if you have any questions before you've been signing up for Lpp, feel free to send me a direct message via Discord And that's the first link in the description or message me on Instagram And that's that third link down below. Lpp gets discounts on Tech but apparel too I like that Danny That is true. That is true.

So okay, okay, there it goes. Still going positive. Let's see where we're at for Tqq. Okay, so we're at five thousand dollars for the day.

I'm gonna reduce it a little bit so my position's still relatively pretty light and again, um, if you've watched me trade. So if you're part of Lpp, uh, you know that you know a hundred thousand is about 25 of my average my full size position. So I have a pretty light position right now. it's looking a little bit more on the overbought side.

And remember one thing that I talked about in yesterday's video: One thing that I talked to I Learned Plan Profit Team about this morning is Do Not hesitate To lock in profits When Jerome Powell begins to speak, that is a whole different Monster Not calling him a monster I'm talking about how the market began to shift or change direction. That is very important to understand that this is the initial reaction to the interest rate hike, right? There is a secondary reaction to what he says and how he answers questions. So I don't know about you. but 2023 is not the year for Perfection For me, one of the things that I'm trying to preach to all of our Learn Plan Profit Traders is that you know 2023 is a year of progress and I just want to have I want to make a better habit of locking in profits.

That's all I want to do so. Um Jerome Powell is going to be speaking in about 20 minutes from now in about 19 minutes actually. Um, so I'm pumped and I'm excited to see it happen. but as of right now I'm reducing my position size where I view it to be overbought and again, this is just my opinion.

You can continue to Hold Your Position You know that does nothing for me. I I Do not care, right? I'm just explaining to you why I'm reducing my position size. That's all right? if it ends up taking off. I can always re-enter if I want to and that's one thing that I love reminding myself and our beginner Traders Is that going from green to Green right? I can always re-enter I'm fine with that.

I have the option of getting back in going from green to Red Making a habit of not locking in profits. That's not something that I want to experience. Okay, so I'm going to sell 600 and keep myself with a 1 000 share open position. Oh, here it goes.

Going back to retests: 23 20 I'm going to sell another 600 shares. There it goes, leaving myself with 1 000 shares flat. Okay, okay here it goes okay looking good right? We have 17 minutes I have my chips I have my rice I have all of you guys here. it's a it's a good Wednesday How are you guys feeling so far? Can I see a show of hands? Let me know in the live chat.

how are you feeling right now So far so but the 0.25 interest rate hike? how are you doing with your position, your position size? Have you locked in profits? Are you still holding? Are you adding more? You know? Are you getting ready for Jerome Pal to begin to speak just waiting I Like that. Okay, staying patient. Stay in cash holding. Stay in cash.

Okay, looks like you guys are ready right? You trade Futures as well I Do not. Nope. Most of my trading I would say 95 of my trades are between Tqs and Sqs. I have a big focus on NASDAQ I'm not here to make you believe that I'm you know some wizard that I trade thousands of hundreds of different stocks? No.

I trade one pair I trade NASDAQ ETFs If the market goes up I Go into Tqs if the market goes down I Go into Sq's by simply focusing on Market direction. That is my focus every day. Again, my job is not to be perfect. My job is to be consistent and to be selective, right? And that's exactly what we focus on every day within our live trading session.

So yeah, I would encourage you that if you haven't watched me trade live, you can click the second link in the description of this video and get a better understanding of what's included in LBP 2.0 So Ricky is a wizard, He just won't admit it. Yeah, no. if I'm a wizard. uh I wish my um I got a big area of opportunity for me is position size I'm trying to make a better habit of of for me, right? um of locking in profits right away to not care about.

oh well, you know I I could potentially make a little bit more money. and yeah, there's there's always that idea. But my biggest thing is I just want to be consistent consistent every day. I was consistent today I'm consistent I was consistent yesterday I was consistent the day before I made 24.5 K on Monday I made 6K yesterday and then I'm up 5.4 K today I'm really enjoying it I Feel like did I make the most amount of money every single day? No, but I was consistent right every day.

There was huge area of opportunity I could have potentially made more money on Sqs on Monday I could have made a lot more money yesterday on Tqs, but it's again, it's There's always room for improvements. But there's one thing that I need to focus on and is you know no one goes broke by locking in profits. But hey, none of those. Reddit Traders tell you that they didn't go broke back holding AMC right? And it's just like, who do you want to be like? Do you want to be like the people that hope and bag hold or do you want to be Be like someone that's calculated and selective with what they choose to invest or trade in right? and that doesn't and isn't afraid of being selfish and locking in profits.

He should be selfish. That's one thing that I always like to remind our Lpp. Traders Um, I Remember when I was day trading AMC or any of those meme stocks a lot of those Reddit Traders would get so offended that you know I would make 40K in a day day trading AMC Like oh my. God you're so selfish.

Yes, what do you mean? What do you mean I'm self yes, Why did you start learning how to trade in the market to make money right? That's why that's why we're here. I'm not I'm not here to waste time. It's not rocket science, right? You're here to make money. What are you here for To make money? I'm here to make money.

Let's make money. Why are we over complicated about of our our hopes or our desires? Or yeah. so again, just make sure that your habits promote long-term growth and that they're not short-lived So there it goes. This is why we lock in profits.

All right there goes. beginning to show signs of a support. Ricky Will you broadcast Powell's speech? of course I'd Love to continue to host this live session. We have about 5 000 of you guys here and we only have 500 likes.

Let's try to see if we can get 1500 likes. Again, it doesn't cost you anything to subscribe to the channel and to drop a thumbs up. Again, he's going to be speaking in the next 12 minutes. Let's continue this live stream.

just show, Show the channel some love. Drop a thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel. Let's make it happen again.

If you have any questions that you want to ask me prior to Jerome pal speaking, that's what I'm here for right? I'm not not just an ugly person to look at on your screen I Want to be a value for you? so let's let's do it all right. 1200 likes there goes. Look at that big Gap up I Like it I Appreciate you guys I Really do. For those that you know don't over complicate and are okay with showing the channel some love.

Are you planning on trading anymore? Um well. I Just sold my position right on Tqq. Um I Want to see how the market reacts? Uh, because I don't know how many of you guys watched my video yesterday. But one thing that we noticed is not every time, but when I looked at every previous interest rate hike right when I looked at every previous interest rate I there was maybe one or two that ended in the green, but every other interest rate hike it would move up just like it's doing now and then it would gap down and my big concern.

Let me explain both sides. My big concern is that we are so overbought on QQQ that whatever he says, it's not going to take much to drop the market. and then we also have big Tech reporting earnings today and tomorrow. It's kind of like.

It's so unfortunate that right when we're at the cusp of potentially breaking Above This resistance range that all of these reports are coming out and that it could cause the market to drop down because of how overbought it is. That is my concern because we are so overbought. I Don't think it would take much to bring down the market. That's what I wanted to share with you.

but fundamentally I Do think a lot has changed with these interest rate hikes. I Think that you know the Federal Reserve has a lot more ground to stand on by only being at 6.5 percent inflation versus you know, 9.1 right? We've seen continuous decline in inflation. These interest rate hikes went from 0.75 to now 0.25 the smallest that they've been, right? So that is the difference. where like this: I hope that this is the bottom of the market, but because I don't know and because I'm not someone that's going to be a hopeful Trader This is why I try to stay calculated and I reduce my position size at overbought levels due to that uncertainty I know that if when he begins to speak it once he begins to speak, if the market begins to take off in a positive way, then great I can jump back in I Carry no risk there if I hold a full position and then he begins to speak and the market sells off at that point I'm open to risk.

Any open position is a position that's open to risk and that's my concern. This is why when I talk about locking in profits or when I talk about knowing when to reduce your position size or watching your position size It's not because I care for you guys to stop and I'll show you right. Some people think that oh, you're probably shorting the market and that's why you want me to sell. No, I'm going long with you as well, right? I I Genuinely believe it or not, do not actually care what you do right? My job is just to make you aware of what I'm doing and why am I right all of the time? How heck no? Excuse my language.

Heck no. I'm not right all the time. but I tried to be safe more than I tried to be aggressive and I think that that approach as a habit would be a better habit for a beginner Trader than to be very aggressive for a beginner. Trader Do you get what I mean it's the idea is to encourage beginners to build healthy habits and look back to your previous traits.

Look back in 2023, what do you think is is more valuable building healthy habits or just hoping to get lucky, right? Think about the mess 2022 was I Mean we killed it. We were shorting the market. We had one of our biggest uh, I had one of my biggest months shorting the market like our Lpp team was doing really, really well shorting the market. But for those that didn't know how to short, for those that didn't know how to prepare, it was a bloodbath, right? But it was very simple for us.

we didn't over complicate it, we didn't get emotional, we didn't take it personally, and of course we had red days along the day, right? because we're never perfect. But it's okay, it's It's all about progress, seeing what you excel in, seeing the areas of opportunity and not being afraid to work on them right? I Know Ricky is the only person that would say excuse my language for saying the word hell well. I I know that there's some young people that watch my videos and I just want to be respectful for them. but I mean when I'm with me and my friends I mean I do because like a sailor sometimes right? Yeah, all I all I want is I want you guys to do well I want you guys to last right? I want you guys to be able to tolerate these tough times.

so when I talk about it and again, don't get offended by it. But when I talk about that I want you to like take your position size into consideration. It's just because I don't want you to put yourself in a bad position that you can't tolerate the good positions and the making money like anyone can do that right. If directions in your favor and things are going according to plan, great, that's the easy part.

I'm trying to help you on on those red days I'm trying to help you to make it easier to swallow that that pill of accepting those losses. I would rather you take a 50 loss than to take a 500 loss. That's what I'm getting to. And those are the difficult conversations.

Like speaking to a therapist right? they're They're pretty much just bringing up everything that's wrong with you and you might feel uncomfortable. but it's not. If you think about it, it's areas of opportunity. and it's an area of improvement where you can actually become better.

So that's that's all I ever mean for my videos. and if you get offended by that, then I mean I I Generally don't care, but it's just I Guess you got bigger problems. So there we go. All right, we have 1600 of you that have dropped a thumbs up.

Appreciate that. So Jerome Powell is going to be speaking in the next five minutes. Next five minutes and Jerome Powell will be speaking. We will be capturing that live stream and I'm going to be showing it, um, on this channel.

So again, make sure you drop a thumbs up if you guys haven't done so already. But most importantly, make sure that you guys subscribe if you guys didn't hear. uh. First off, our Apple watch giveaway ends on February 3rd that's for shop techlets that's the fourth Link in the description.

But we are working on our biggest giveaway ever and I'm giving away a 2019 GTR And if you're not, if you can't drop a thumbs up if you can't subscribe to my channel, then again, I I'd be more than happy for you to not even participate in our GTR giveaway. but if you're not subscribed already, then maybe that should be a reason to stay subscribed so we can keep you up to date on how you can enter to win my 2019. Nissan GTR So I just bought it not last week but the week prior and right away right, it's a GTR track Edition Beautiful, Beautiful! I've been driving it a lot I posted every day on my Instagram if you guys don't follow me on Instagram that's the third link in the description but um I love your guys's messages I feel like hey, make sure you wash my car Um but yeah, we have a third party sweepstakes company that's going to be running it so I'm not going to be picking the winner. We're doing everything as legit as it as it can be and we're going to make sure that you know we do it right for all of you guys.

And I'm very excited that you guys have been able to put my put Me on a platform where I can take the risk of giving away a GTR and I'm excited to share my experience with you guys. If we make money or lose money, whatever the case might be, that's going to be an interesting way to start 2023 and I'm very excited for it. So do we ship to Belgium No. I Do believe that you do have to be in the U.S or Canada or Mexico or something like that.

We'll give you more details as they come, but you have to subscribe to the channel. Okay and make sure you drop a thumbs up. I Better see those five five thousand of you guys watching this dang video and we only have 1900 likes. Ugh the nerve You guys want me to give you a car.

What's going on? Elliot What's up man? I Just saw your message. Have I done therapy I Have not no hope you're doing well. No, not therapy I Have it there. It goes All right I'm sorry Nina I know I have a bad one Cheers man I Kind of kind of follow the streams down to yet Elliot I Appreciate man uh we'll talk later on.

Atrium but um yeah, hope that you enjoy. so in the next two minutes Jerome Pal Again, uh, going to be speaking so let me go ahead and pull that up. I have it ready here on my secondary screen I'm going to drag it on over once it begins to speak and you'll all be able to hear him. So hope that you are all ready for that.

I Want to I Want to repost a couple of you guys on Instagram so if you guys want to tag me on Instagram Uh, remember I only have one account the third link in the description. If you guys don't follow me, feel free to follow me. but tag me. and I'm going to repost a couple of you guys right now on my story.

So let me. but you need to post something funny or something interesting. What do you think the markets can react in a positive or negative way? Give me give me some substance on that story post right? just so I can post it and it makes sense to everyone watching. All right there we go Okay One minute and I'm gonna pull it up here just so we could all see it.

Let's see if the market begins to shift. So I'm going to do a full screen. Yeah, no, I'm not a fan of that music. So once he begins to speak, um, oh there it goes.

Big JP All right, let me see a show of hand. Who do you think? uh, how many of you guys think he's gonna be wearing his little Roly-poly There's a little Rolex Big JP with I think he has like a what is it? it's just a regular I don't even know what the Rolex is Justin help me out. What's that Rolex called again it's just like the the big ones with like the black rim. it's not a Batman right? that's like whatever it is black Submariner that's what it is.

There we go. A boy Justin in the house helping out I Appreciate that. Okay, there we go. So we just got okay.

Here we go. Hope you're all ready. Big JP Good afternoon. Strongly committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal.

Over the past year, we've taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy. We've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Even so, we have more work to do. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the Bedrock of our economy.

Without price stability, The economy does not work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of labor market conditions that benefit all. Today, the Fomc raised our policy interest rate by 25 basis points. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent over time markets dropping.

Look at that. We're continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. Big One Big One: Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive stance for some time. Look at that.

I will have more to say about today's monetary policy actions. After briefly reviewing economic developments foreign significantly last year with real GDP rising at a low Trend pace of one percent, recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production. this quarter consumer spending appears to be expanding at a subdued Pace in part reflecting tighter Financial conditions over the past year, Testing supporting the housing sector continues to weaken, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates, higher interest rates, and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment. Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low, job vacancies still very high, and wage growth Elevated joggings have been robust with employment Rising by an average of 247 000 jobs per month over the last three months.

Although the pace of job gains has slowed over the course of the past year in nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing. The labor market continues to be out of balance. Labor demand substantially exceeds the supply of available workers, and the labor force participation rate has changed little from a year ago. Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent over the 12 months, ending in December Total Pce prices arose 5.0 percent, excluding the volatile food and energy categories.

Core Pce prices: Rose 4.4 percent Inflation data received over the past three months show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases, and while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path. Elevated Inflation: Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. Be careful of buying too early. Range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters still bearish Measures from financial markets remember it normally sells off when he speaks, Allow it to happen.

Low inflation is moderated. recently. it remains too high. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

The Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation RSI and Macd very oversold to the risks that inflation poses to both day. Traders Watch out, and we are strongly committed to a returning inflation to our two percent objective. At today's meeting, the committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to four and a half to four and three quarters percent, and we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.

With today's action, we have raised interest rates by four and a half percentage points over the past year. We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the Federal Funds rate will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent over time to our policy actions on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. I'm not going to buy anymore right now. It's too early for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.

In light of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, the committee decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today. Continuing the step down from last year's rapid pace of increases shifting to a slower Pace will better allow the committee to assess the economy's progress toward our goals as we determine the extent of future increases that will be required to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance. We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting, take into a, taking into account the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. We have been taking forceful steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with Supply.

Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our two percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. The historical record cautions strongly against premature breaking above the moving average breaking above the EMA Watch Watch the buying pressure kick in.

On to conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. He hasn't even answered questions yet. this is just a speech. It's a script.

We'll do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions. Associated Press Thank you for doing this. Chris Watch your question mark.

It's about the patients have loosened since the fall, with bond yields, falling down mortgage rates uh, and the stock market posted a solid gain in January Does that make your job of combating inflation harder? And could you see lifting rates higher than you otherwise would to offset the increase in or to offset the easing of financial conditions Again, I'm still very likely in my position. Be careful. This is super early on and it is our judgment that we're not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate. Of course, many things affect financial conditions, not just our policy, and we will take into account whatever Financial conditions along with many other factors.

As we said, policy: Rachel Remember, my exits are never perfect. Hi, it's your. Powell Thank you for taking our questions. Rachel Siegel from The Washington Post Over the last quarter, we've seen a deceleration in prices and wages and a fall in consumer spending.

All while the unemployment rate has been able to stay at a historic low. Does this at all change your view of how much the unemployment rate would need to go up? Watch for new highs, Watch for new highs. So I would say it is. It is a good thing that the disinflation that we have seen so far 298 26 previous highs.

Nice recovery. Beautiful setup on the 30 minute time frame. This inflationary process that you now see underway very overbought though. take that into consideration.

We have momentum in our favor, but very very overbought you you saw. Look at that watch for the 23.50 resistance services and Um shortages or had been abated. So you see that in the Um, in the In, the in, the other in in the Housing Services sector. we expect inflation to continue moving up Uh for a while, but then to come down assuming that new leases continue to be lower.

So in those two sectors, you've got a good story. Uh, the issue is that we have a large sector called non-housing Service Core Non-housing Services where we don't see disinflation yet. But I I would say that Um, so far what we see is is progress but without without any weakening in labor market conditions. Go ahead has your expectation for where the unemployment you know we're going to write down uh, new forecasts at the March meeting and we'll see at that time I will say that it is gratifying to see the disinflationary process now getting underway and we continue to get strong labor market data.

So, but you know we'll update those forecasts in March Neo Uh chair Powell You Learn With Axios, Um, you and some of your colleagues have emphasized the possibility that job openings could come down and that would let some of the air out of the labor market without major job losses. We saw the opposite in the December Jolts this morning. Uh, job openings? actually? Rising Uh, that also is coincided with with slow down wage inflation. Uh, do you believe that openings are an important indicator to be studying to to understand where the labor market is and where waging places do you hide? So you're right about the data.

of course. What we um, we did see, we've seen average hourly earnings and now the employment cost index is getting a little bit still off of their highs of six months ago and super overbought, but still at level Super overpopular still does not stop. The Job Openings number has been. Joltz has been quite volatile that, uh, recently and I did see that it moved up back up this morning.

I I Do think that uh, it's probably an important indicator. This is what he's talking about. Up to 1.9 job openings to uh by two unemployed people people are looking for work. So it's it's an indicator.

But nonetheless, we, You're right. We do see Uh wages moving down. If you look across the rest of the labor market, you still see very high, uh, payroll, job creation, and uh, you know, quits are still in an elevated level. So many, many by many, many indicators.

Uh, the job market is still very strong again. I've sold nearly all of my shares sometimes given the EP Still the best guidepost for the policy path forward. or does ongoing now mean more than two? Uh revises now. So you're right.

At the December meeting, we all wrote down our best estimates of what we thought the ultimate level would be, and that's obviously back in December and the median for that was between five and five and a quarter percent. Um, at the Marx meeting, we're going to update those assessments. We did not update them today. We did, however, continue the rate hikes will be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation back down.

We think we've covered a lot of ground, and financial conditions have certainly tightened and I would say uh, we still think there's work to do there. We haven't made a decision on on exactly where that will be I Think you know we're going to be looking carefully at the incoming data between now and a March meeting and then the May meeting. Um, I I Uh, I Don't feel a lot of certainty about uh, where that, where that will be. It could certainly be higher than we're writing down right now.

Some of the view that we need to write down: this thing's not stopping. We just broke above previous highs. Look at this what we said in December new highs on: NASDAQ If the data come in in the other direction then we'll You know we'll make data dependent decisions. Wow wow wow wow wow.

I'm just gonna sell it all out. Viewing the kind of balance of risk between those two options of, um, you know, the the likelihood of maybe falling short of that for or going beyond that level I guess I would say it this way. um I Continue to think that remember, have a plan and stick to it if you're day trading. if you're investing long-term different story with those with those shares, Please understand how overbought we are in places have a plan something you really do worry about expectations getting, uh, unanchored and that kind of thing.

This is a very difficult risk to manage whereas uh, you know of course we have no incentive and no desire to to over tighten. But we you know if we if we feel like we've gone too far, we can certainly could. Certain inflation is coming down faster than we expect, then we have tools that would that would work on that. So I Do think that in this situation where we have still the highest inflation in 40 years, you know the job is not fully done as I mentioned.

I Started to mention earlier, we have a sector that represents 56 percent of the core inflation index where we don't see disinflation yet. Wow in the core. Services X Housing is still running nearly a seven percent move basis, so there's none in 20 minutes in the other two sectors representing. congrats Bulls Now do something about locking in profit if you're a day trader.

Have a plan although you don't actually see disinflation yet in Housing Services But it's in the pipeline right? So for the for the third sector, we we don't see anything here. So I think it would be premature. It would be very premature to declare Victory or to to think that we've really got this. We need to see.

Our goal of course is to bring inflation down. And how do we? How do we get that done? There are many, many factors driving inflation in that sector and they should be coming into play for to have inflation. The disinflationary process begin in that sector, but so far we don't see that. and I think until we do, we see ourselves as having a lot of work left to do.

uh Howard Shy with Reuters and and thanks as usual. So I just wanted to connect a couple Dots Here, the statements made a number of changes. uh, that seem to be saying things are getting better just saying inflation disease at these. Uh, that's new.

You've taken out references to the war in Ukraine that's causing price increases. You've taken out references to the pandemic. You've eliminated all the reasons that you said prices were being driven higher. Yet that's not Mac Like it's any change in how you describe policy, we still have ongoing increases to come.

So I'm wondering why is that the case? And does it have more to do with uncertainty around the Outlook or more to do with you not wanting to give a very overreager Market a reason to get ahead of itself and overreact? So I guess I would would say it this way. Uh, we can now say I think for the first time that the disinflationary process has started. We can see that and we see it really in Goods prices. So far because prices is a big sector, we this is what we thought would happen since the very beginning is actually happening and for the reasons we thought we you know it's Supply chains that shortages and it's demand revolving back towards services.

so this is a good thing. This is a good thing, but that's you know, around a quarter of the Pce price index Fomo is kicking in. but again just reminding myself reminding myself, services, it's not just you guys, it's definitely me as well. Thanks! And Services we expect and other forecasters expect assuming that that new leases continue to be soft and we do assume that so we think that that's sort of in the pipeline and we actually see disinflation in a good sector.

And we see it in the pipeline. for two sectors that amount to a little less than half. So this, this is good. and we note that when we say inflation is coming down that this is good, we expect to see that that disinflation process will be seen.

We hope soon In the Core Goods X Housing sorry the Core Services X Housing sector that I talked about. We don't see it yet. It's you know, it's seven or eight different kinds of services. uh, not all of them that are the same.

And you know we have a sense of what's going on in each of those different uh subsections. Um, probably the biggest part of it probably 60 percent of of that will is you know a research would show is sensitive to slacking the economy and so the labor market will probably be important. Some of the other ones, it's the other. Market's not going to be important.

many other factors will drive it. In any case, we don't see this show in signs of a resistance. just a heads up. see that it's beginning to slow down.

Just just take that into consideration. Not that you have to sell, but just be wary of it. which is our mandate. It's all about progress, optimistic or pessimistic, we're just telling you that we we don't see inflation moving down yet in that large sector.

I Think we will fairly soon, but we don't see it yet. Until we do. We see ourselves. We got to be honest with ourselves.

When we see ourselves as having perhaps more persistent. we'll see more persistent inflation in that sector, which will take longer to get down and we're just going to have to. We have to complete the job. I Mean that's that's what we're here for Nick Tamaros The Wall Street Journal Uh Chair Powell You Observed several years ago that we learned we can have a low unemployment rate without above Target inflation.

and we have learned lately that inflation can come down from its uncomfortably high level despite a historically low unemployment rate. Given that, and given how much you did over the last year, why do you think further rate increases are needed? Why not stop here and see what transpires in the coming months before raising rates again? So we, you know we've raised rates four and a half percentage points. A couple of more great likes to get to that level we think is approvably restrictive. And why do we think that's probably necessary? We think because inflation is still running very hot, we're of course taking into account long and variable lags and we're thinking about that.

um, it. Really? it. The story we're telling about inflation is in to ourselves and the way we understand it is. We're basically the three things that I've just gone through a couple times and again, we don't see it affecting the services sector x yet.

Um, but I mean I Think our assessment is that we're not very far from that level. Uh, we don't know that though. we don't know that. So I think we're we're You know we're living in a world of significant uncertainty.

I Would look across the the rate, the spectrum of rates and see that real rates are now positive, right? Like you know by an appropriate set of measures are positive across the yield curve. I Think policy is restricted, a fine judgment about how much is restrictive enough. That's all and we're gonna. You know that's why we're slowing down to 25 basis points.

We're going to be carefully watching the economy and watching inflation and watching the progress of the disinflationary process. You or your colleagues discuss the conditions for a pause at this meeting this week. We you know you'll see that the minutes will come out in three weeks and we'll give you a lot of detail. I You know we spent a lot of time talking about the path ahead and uh and the state of the economy and I wouldn't want to start to drive the discard all the details there, but that was the sense of the discussion.

Was really talking quite a bit about. congrats to everyone who has locked in profits. Congratulations on your Green Day not deserved. You earned it.

Um hi cheer pal I Wanted to ask about the debt ceiling given that we've now hit up against it. I Was wondering if the U.S goes past the X date. Will the FED do Whatever the treasury directs as it relates to making payments is the physical agent or will it do its own analysis of any legal constraints? So your question is: would we say your question again, do what treasury directs as it relates to making payments or will it do its own analysis of any legal constraints? So so you're really asking about? but I I asked me a prioritization in effect. Okay, so I I Feel like I Have to say this: There's only one way forward here and that is for Congress to raise the debt ceilings so that the United States government can pay all of its obligations when do, and any deviations from that path would be highly risky and that no one should assume that the FED can protect the economy.

that's not good. So failing to act in a timely manner in terms of our relationship with the treasury, we are their Fiscal Agent and I'm just going to leave it at that. Are you actively doing any planning of what might happen in the event that that would happen? I'm just going to leave it at that. This is a matter that's to be resolved between.

Really, it's really Congress's job to raise the debt ceiling and I gather their discussions happening, but they don't involve us. We're not. uh, we're not involved in those discussions. So or the Fiscal Agent What he said is don't ask me that question, ma'am Uh, Gina Smiley from The New York Times Thanks for taking our questions I Wonder was there any discussion today of the possibility of pausing rate increases and then restarting them? Lori Logan From the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas seemed to suggest that that would be a possibility and a recent speech and I wonder if that views broadly shared on the committee? So um, the committee obviously did not see this as a time to pause.

We judge that the appropriate work you know the thing to do with this meeting was to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and we said that we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain that stance of sufficiently restricted monetary policy that will bring inflation down to two percent. So that's that's the Judgment that we made. Um, you know, we're gonna. We're gonna write down new forecasts in March and uh, and we'll you know, we'll certainly be looking at the incoming data as everyone else will.

So I mean would it be possible to take off for example and then resume? You know, could you rather than just doing it at every meeting, that move go a little bit more slowly? take some gaps in between moves? I mean I Think this is not something that the committee is thinking about or exploring in any kind of detail. In principle, though you know we use, the thing we used to do was go every other meeting if you remember 25 basis points and that was considered a fast pace. So I think a lot of options are available and I mean you saw what the Bank of Canada did and you know they left it that they're willing to to raise rates after pricing. But this is not something that.

this is not something that that the thorough Open Market Committee is on the point of deciding right now. You guys are ridiculous in the live chat. It's probably my favorite part about it these three. Mr Chairman, Um, the SCP has the Uh Pce inflation rating.

There we go. Meanwhile, the big speed. Otherwise, Pce is 2.1 and you've achieved this Uh without going to your 5.1 percent uh funds rate which is what you have pencil in for this year. Um, and you've also achieved it without the one percentage Point increase in the unemployment rate which you have to cancel that for this year.

I'm wondering if you've considered the idea of whether or not um, your understanding of the inflation Dynamic may be wrong and it's possible to achieve these things without raising rates that high and also without um, uh, without the surgeon unemployment and specifically I Wonder if you might comment on the speech given by a vice chairwell Brainerd who said three questions and wages may have been responsible in part for important price increases for some non-housing Services an unwinding of these factors. In other words, it may not be wages. the idea that it may not require unemployment rising to get this sector of inflation under control. Thanks.

So a couple things first on the on the forecast, um, consolidation at Resistance three three months say measures of three hundred dollars. Be careful here, that's because it's driven by uh, you know, significantly negative readings from Goods inflation. Most forecasters and uh would think that the that this significantly negative readings will be transitory and that Goods inflation will move up fairly soon. back up to its longer run trend of something around zero something like that.

So a lot of forecasts would call for core Pce to go back up to four percent by the middle of the year for example. So that's really where the sustainable level is is more like at four percent, so that would suggest there's there's work left to do. Uh, you know, Let's let's say inflation does come down much faster than we expect, which is which is possible. As I mentioned, you know, obviously our policies data depending we would take that into account in terms of of um, short sellers B sorry the court be ready.

As I mentioned, it's still too early. we're not very diverse settings and um so sectors that represent Super overbought 60? Look at that, You guys ready for it. Uh, sub sector of that sector. Um, you guys better have an exit plan for the Bulls that haven't locked in profits slack in the economy.

Sensitive to the labor market in a way, but some of the other sectors are not. And for example, you know Financial Services is a big sector that's really not driven by by uh, by uh, labor labor markets wages. Um, so that's why I said there were a number of things that will affect take take restaurants right. So clearly labor is important for restaurants.

but so are food prices. And you know transportation services is going to be driven by by fuel prices for example. So there are lots of things in that mix that will drive inflation. I Would say overall though, my own view would be that you're not going to have a, you know, a sustainable return to two percent inflation in that sector without a better balance in the labor market.

And um I don't know what that will require in terms of of increased unemployment? Your question: I Do think there are a number of Dimensions through which the labor market can soften and so far we've we've got. as I mentioned in Goods, we have inflation moving down without the softening in the labor market. I Think most forecasters would say that that unemployment will probably rise a bit from here, but I still think I continue to think that there's a path to getting inflation back down to two percent without a really significant economic decline or a significant increase in unemployment. And that's that's because this, you know.

the setting we're in is quite different the the inflation that we originally got. Let's see if we get some lower lows here between I'm not shorting yet, demand and hard Supply constraints and again, something you do not have to short in. Prior You can just stay cash with prior business cycles and so now we see good inflation coming down for the reasons we thought. and um, we understand why housing inflation will come down.

And I think Well, a story will emerge on on the non-housing services sector soon enough. but I think there is. There's ongoing disinflation and we don't yet see. Uh, you know, we don't yet see weakening in the labor market, so we'll have to see.

Certainly possible. Yeah, absolutely it's possible. You know it's a question no one really knows I Think it's because this is this. This is not like the other business.

Cycles in so many ways. Um, it may well be that as as that it will take more slowing than than we expect than I Expect to get inflation down two percent, but I don't I don't That's not my base case. My base case is that, uh, the economy can return to two percent inflation without a really significant downturn or a really big increase in unemployment I Think that's that's a possible outcome I Think many many forecasters would say it's not the most likely outcome, but but I would say there's there's a look at that this is just built this Divergence So strong uh Michael McKee from Bloomberg TV radio I'd like to pick up on what you were just saying about a substantial downturn and ask with uh, the full weight this is a confirmed higher low in place yet and uh, with the progress against inflation, there's still a lot of talk about uh, very, very slow growth going forward in 2023 and the recession indicators are all suggesting uh, that we are going to see recession this year. So I'm wondering if you've changed your view or you have a more nuanced view of what you think the danger to economic growth is going forward and whether you're very close to, uh, perhaps tipping it into the wrong place which calls for more restraint on your part.

So I do think you most forecasts and and you know my own assessment would be that that growth will continue Positive Growth will continue but at a subdued Pace as it did last year, we had growth of uh GDP growth of one percent last year. also final sales growth which you think is which we think is a better indicator of about one percent I Think you know most forecasts and certainly my assessment would be that growth will continue at a fairly subdued level this year. Um, there are other factors though that need to be considered you. You will have seen that the global picture is a improving a bit.

still testing that same resistance on NASDAQ The market remains very very strong and that's job creation. That's wages. Thank you guys for your time. Make sure you guys subscribe and drop that thumbs up if you feel like we are.

State Local governments are are really flush these days with Uh with you know money and many of them are considering tax cuts or even sending checks. So I think that's going to support. They're also spending a lot. There's a lot of spending coming in the construction pipeline private and public and so that's going to support economic activity.

So I think there's a there's a good chance that that those factors will help support Positive Growth this year and that's my base case is is that that there will be positive growth this year. Thank you! We're trailer for Goldberg First of all for uh, how are you doing Uh, fine Thanks good Second off: um I think it's early on in the press conference you you said you need to see substantially more evidence of inflation coming down. Can you give us some idea of what you're thinking of? You mentioned three months that we've seen three months in a row. Governor Waters Suggested he might want to see six months.

Is it just the inflation? That or do you have to see the Uh, the labor market coming back into better balance to have that substantially more evidence I Don't think there's a, you know, going to be a light switch flipped or anything like that I think it's just an accumulating accumulation of evidence. So of course we'll be looking. by the time of the March meeting, we'll have two more employment reports, two more CPI reports and we'll be looking at those carefully as as all of us will and we'll be asking ourselves what are they telling us And and uh, soon after that we'll have another ECI wage report which as you know is is a report that we we like because it adjusts for composition and it's very complete and you know the one we got I guess it was yesterday was um, was constructive. It's you know it shows wages coming down but still at a high level.

They're still at a level that's way above well above where they were before the Uh before the pandemic. So I I don't want to put a number on it in terms of months, but as the accumulated evidence comes in, it's going to be reflected in our assessment of the Outlook and that will be it. That will be reflected in our policy over time. But I will say though we you know it is our job to restore price stability and Achieve two percent inflation for the benefit of the American public? We're not Market Participants have a very different job.

It's a fine job. It's a great job. 8.5 from the lows to high today. Another great example of why you save your day trades.

And so if you're under the PDT rule, strongly resolved that. we will you know, complete this task because we think it has benefits that will you know, support economic activity and benefit the public for for many, many years. Um for taking the questions so you've talked about. We had solid job growth I'm evident Lawrence from Fox Business By the way, we had solid job growth, a slight falling in the increase in consumer spending.

Um, it seems so far it's been relatively mild from the economy to go to. From a 9.1 CPI inflation to 6.5 percent inflation is the hard part. Yet to come to go from 6.5 to 2 I Don't think we know. Honestly, you know the Uh.

So we of course expected Goods inflation to start coming down by the end of 2021. and it didn't It didn't come down all through 22 and now it's come again. It's come down pretty fast. So I would say these are: this is not a standard business cycle where you can look at the last 10 times there was a global pandemic and we shut the economy down and uh Congress did what it did, and we did.

It's just it's Unique So I Think certainty is just not appropriate here. Inflation It's just harder to forecast inflation. It may come down faster, it may take longer to come, and you know our job is to deliver inflation back to Target and we will do that. But I think we we're going to be cautious about about declaring Victory And you know, sending signals that uh, that we think that the the game is won because it you know it's we've got a long way to go.

It's just it's the early stages of disinflation and it's most welcome to be able to say that that we are now in disinflation. But that's great. But we we just see that it has to spread through the economy and then it's going to take some time. That's all.

How long do you see it then? the federal funds rate remaining at this elevated level? you know. So again, my forecast and that my colleagues as you will see from the SCP and I mean there are many different forecasts. But generally it's a forecast of slower growth, some softening in labor