Hey guys, it's sasha, there is one big problem with online content about investing. That problem is that the vast majority of content out there just talks about the future, with no real accountability, no kind of reflection on how things actually pan out and worst of all the creators don't really care. You'll often read an article or watch a video that talks about a particular stock, for example, and the video will tell you that that stock is going to do super. Well, it is a great investment and they might even show you some reasons why.

They think that if you're lucky but then that video is done, a lot of people go and watch it or read it or whatever, and then time passes and in six months or in a year or in a few years it is irrelevant, nobody remembers it. Nobody cares if the person who said all of that stuff actually made a good investment if that investment was even actually any good. Most people reading or watching probably can't even then remember down the line in a few years where it was that they even heard about that particular stock that is now sitting in their portfolio with a massive big fat loss. Next to it, and an even bigger problem is that this cycle just goes and repeats itself.

Every week, jump onto a new stock every day go and tell a new ticker. That's going to the moon that somebody has found that nobody's ever heard of this. One is definitely going to go and explode go and invest in this thing, you kind of see these videos just all the time and some channels manage to do multiple times a day, sometimes multiple times during the day, different stocks every single day and on my channel I don't talk about that many stocks. I talk about a relatively small number of very specific stocks because that's what i personally invest in or i'm personally interested in, and i only talk about those.

I don't think that there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of companies that all have the potential to do extremely well, and on balance, i am pretty happy with the stocks in my portfolio i have been getting a pretty decent rate of return on them for some Time and including over the last year, but i also have been wrong on some of them. In fact, i will be wrong on a lot of them, because that is how investing works. You are not ever going to be perfectly accurate. Nobody has a 100 record of picking winners, because if they did, they would become incredibly, very, very rich, very, very quickly, but you don't hear about the other side of the coin.

Much it is the monday morning, gambler situation. You turn to work, and you hear the guy sitting in the office that one guy, who is there telling you that they placed a bet the weekend and he came in and their 10 bet made them 150 and how great are they at predicting? This particular thing you won't hear about the 20 other bets that that person placed that didn't win. So i wanted to go and talk about some of the losers that i had, including the really big one, because i think it can teach some really important lessons. The first one that i want to talk about, the big loser that some people are reminding me about is um.

It's about a video that i published on july 1st this year called why i sold my nvidia stock. I sold nvidia at that point at about 818 before the split so split adjusted using the current share price i sold at about 204.50 and the nvidia share price right now, as i'm recording. This video is about 303.90. That is almost 50 percent up from when i sold just five months ago, and here is an important lesson in investing when you make any investing decision, you do not know what the market will do after you are not that good.

Nobody is. I am not good. I don't know i have no idea, nobody else does either, but whenever i personally make my investing decisions, i follow the exact same principles for making the determination every single time and it's the same whether i buy or sell do i see a mathematical upside in the Share price, that's it and when i do see an upside and that upside is big enough, and i feel that the error margin around it is robust enough, and i feel that the market may well see that in time i will go and invest. But if i sell, when i don't see an upside, there is absolutely no reason why the share price can't continue going up and in fact sometimes it might go up.

Maybe it will go up a lot and that will happen far more often than some people realize. Other people might disagree with your valuation. New information might turn up that may cause the share price to go up, maybe cause the valuations of other people to go up. Maybe there's going to be a massive hype drive which will push the share price even higher and at any one moment, if you believe the stock market is reasonably good on average at valuations, then you'd expect that, while some shares might be undervalued, the ones that you Want to invest in there'll, be others the world any one point be over value.

That is the nature of a market, and at that point, when i made the video i forecasted that nvidia would make 12.8 billion in ebitda in 2021 up 120 from the previous year and yeah. That is an incredible assumption. It sounded really really silly, maybe to some people, but even using of these very ambitious numbers. The share price felt too high for me at that point.

Remember when, before it went up another 50, which is why i sold there has only been one quarterly update since i made that video and the ebitda for the year so far is just under five billion dollars, and it is up about 116. On the same two quarters from the year before so on those numbers, i'm so far, pretty much bang on when i forecasted remember, the forecaster gave me the numbers that led me to sell, and i gave nvidia some pretty ambitious future projections too. I gave them a 50 rate of growth in 2022 and then 35 percent in 2023, and so on. Nvidia by the way is already an 800 billion dollar company.

They are one of the biggest companies in the world, so these these this rate of growth is a very, very ambitious set of numbers. I guess we will see what the results on wednesday the next quarter results are in two days from when i'm making this video uh. But here is an important lesson in all of this. Some companies will continue going up in share price a lot after you sell out.

That is absolutely normal. That is okay, it doesn't matter that will happen all the time, but as a smart investor, you shouldn't really care about that, because that is not the decision. You are worried about um, you don't really care about the one particular company that you sold going up uh. However much you goes up, because that is an anecdotal bit of data.

You do not know. You cannot really foresee what what the reasons for that were. Some people will point figures and say: hey sasha. You missed out on 50 growth of nvidia.

So therefore you must completely suck at investing and maybe they're right, maybe they're right, but i also made a large gain on the stock. At the point when i sold, i am not here to squeeze every single last drop out of every single lemon in terms of juice. I am here to make returns of 20 per year or higher on average over a long period of time, because if i do that, i'm going to do really really well and i don't need to gamble in order to do that. The best bit is, i don't really even care one iota what happens with the stock.

When i sell i'm really happy that nvidia is doing well, i love their products. I use their products because i know that many of the stocks i sell will end up going higher. Some of them will go much higher, but i chose to move my money into other stocks at that point in time where i felt i could get a more robust and a higher rate of return on average sometimes going to be wrong but other times i won't And i am here to play the average game and video went up 50 since i sold my shares just under, but the money that i took out of nvidia. I reinvested into lucid motors amd tesla and fiverr.

Lucid motors is up 86, since that point amd is up 74 and tesla is up. 59 fiver is only up 13 and i actually put a fair amount of that cash into fiverr because it was roughly the same point in time. So i haven't seen any significant upside in there just yet, but that to me is still a really good rate of return, because it's only been a few months, and the point here is not that i made more money in other stocks, which i did in fact That is just pure luck. I did not expect.

I did not know. I did not foresee any of those companies growing that much in just a few months. That is not what i was trying to do. That is just a complete bit of luck, but i always put my money into places where i think they, the money will work hardest for me.

I don't know which ones are going to go up, how fast they're going to go up, but i can tell based on probabilities and the balance of them, where i think the likelihood is higher and the key is to win on averages not to get the one Big winner and write it all the way to the top, because that does happen. Sometimes maybe, if somebody invested in tesla right at the beginning and they're still sitting in those shares sure that is going to be a phenomenal rate of return. But on average in the stock market that doesn't happen that often and more recently, exactly the same thing happened to me with lucid motors, i sold the stock when it hit 41 and it is now trading at 44, as i'm recording this video. So i've lost out on even more growth there and in the summer i also sold adobe at the beginning of august.

When i sold it was about 622 and adobe's share price right now, 657, so there's another five percent or so that i've lost. I could go on and on with this, but here are two examples that are a bit different, where i actually made the losses on my investments this year, twilio and micron. I held positions in both of these stocks, although neither was a particularly big bit of my portfolio they're, both relatively small positions, not one of my big guns, but both of those have failed to deliver this year, and there are really interesting. They're really interesting examples, because my models a year ago, indicated a relatively good amount of upside for both, but, as one quarterly report came in after another, two very different things happened with those two stocks and they actually have lost me money for different reasons with twilio.

I actually downgraded my upside projections over time because of the commercial strategy largely of the business and eventually i sold out of the stock at a loss of about 10. I lost money on that one, but my math said that the upside just wasn't there anymore. My thesis that i originally had was proven to be wrong, and so, when that moment came when i saw that the numbers just weren't, showing me what i wanted them at that point, i sold out completely exactly the same as with stocks where i made a big Gain the decision is made in exactly the same way for me with micron, something quite different happened. My model continued showing an upside, although it wasn't very big one, but the market just never caught up to it and i held on to that position for a relatively long period of time.

The share price right now is 77, which is almost exactly the same as when i was talking about it and making some additional investments earlier this year, but i saw it a few months ago taking a 7-20 loss on those investments from earlier this year. I actually made a gain on average, but versus that point, when i was talking about it, i took a loss and i didn't even really sell because of micron i sold because i was consolidating my portfolio down. That was one thing i was doing in august and september, but also i saw a bigger and a more robust upside in some other stocks. The fact is, a lot of my investment picks will not deliver and the same will be the case for everybody else.

This year has been phenomenal, it's been great. All of my big plays have done exceptionally well far beyond my expectations, i haven't had a loser with any of my big positions and they have all brought frankly completely ridiculous results, but this year is not in any way representative of what will happen on average, the Likelihood is that next year i'm going to take some massive hits. Maybe we're going to have a market crash? Maybe i will be completely overexposed to the tech sector and the tech sector is the one that gets smashed to pieces on valuations and i am going to have a lot of losers in my portfolio alongside the winners, but that is cool. I am waiting for it.

I am prepared for it and i'm here to continue doing the exact same thing over and over and over to get those average returns that will balance out the winners with the losers, and so should you do not expect all of your investment picks to win. It. Won't happen. The last two years, what's happened in the last two years, with valuations with share prices is not normal.

This is not how the stock market will behave for the next 20 or 30 years. You are going to get completely smashed at some point and take big hits. I hope, you're ready for it. If you're, not, you need to get ready for it.

You will make big bets on companies that will fail miserably, despite everything telling you that they will do well. You will lose a lot of money. You will sometimes lose 30 or 40 of your portfolio value in just a few days during a market crash. It will happen.

The best thing you can do is prepare for it mentally learn as much as possible, get better investing. I'm still learning if you're not still, learning then are doing the wrong thing and keep following the best possible investing strategy that you can because investing is a long-term game of averages. It is not a short-term flexing opportunity to show that you've invested in the stock just before it went up by a massive amount. If you found this video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm.

Thank you so much for watching. I really really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later, you.