Hey, so I just landed in NorCal Wanted to give a quick update because Mike Johnson introduced his budget plan. He's refused to impose the 30% immediate spending cut that some were looking for. Uh, he is actually got a pretty decent plan in terms of wanting to prove that he's willing to be Mr compromise, which that's obviously upsetting some of those on the further right. For example, Chip Roy started shouting on Twitter that this continuing resolution is 100% clean and I 100% oppose.

Uh, but what Mike Johnson is sending is this signal that look, we're not going to do Congressional spending bills right before Christmas that load up a bunch of extra spending and everybody rushes through because they want to go home. It actually sounds relatively reasonable now. Uh, Democrats Were looking for a clean resolution which is what they got here. However, he kind of laded the stop Gap He pushed funding for some agencies to January and some to February which is really interesting because we're not sure if Dems are going to go for that, but what other option they have with a week left? It's actually a pretty decent tool for the Dems to go with.

I Think they should go for it? Uh, a lot of analysts are saying this really lowers the odds of a budget shutdown, which is fantastic. Last thing we need right now is more uncertainty in markets. Remember Goldman Sachs By the way, estimated that every week we're shut down take 2% off a quarterly GDP Now that's quarterly GDP So if you're down for 2 months in a quarter, you're 1.6% of GDP gone. That's a hole in the quarter that's not great now.

Obviously that long of a shutdown, we haven't seen, uh, even close to that long of a shutdown we haven't seen since 2018, so it should be good. but I did want to bring that up. This is uh, this is good news there is also and I thought this was quite interesting. Uh Johnson also threatened that if Democrats hold up either of those, the J Jan or the Uh February stop Gap actual budget renewal where we pass a real budget with you know, inflation adjusted price increase, Es and spending increases, then what they'll do is they'll pass a oneyear stop Gap bill which is basically saying look, we'll just find that we'll just kick the can down the road for a full year with a 1% spending cut.

So rather than spending going up by a little bit which is usually done, each budget you stay the same and actually lose a percent. Now obviously that could be an empty threat since you've got Uh Democrats controlling the Senate and the White House so there's a limit to how far that goes, but it does go to show that you have uh Mike Johnson who seems to be trying his best to balance appeasing both sides here. Again, a lot of folks were looking for some strict spending cuts on the Asylum side, border security side, and potentially even a 30% spending cut was called for. Those representatives are expected to hold firm to that, but then again, you could lose about six Republicans in the house.

And if Dems are okay with this laded spending bill, you might actually end end up seeing this pass with all Dems and most Republicans and then it gets passed. Biden doesn't have to deal with a shutdown before the holidays and then the real negotiation picks up as a laded negotiation two-part negotiation in January Feb The problem though is Dems might say hey, wait a minute though, we want to do this. stop Gap Bill with Israel Taiwan and Ukraine funding. Remember Republicans only gave $14 billion Democrats said hey, we want $106 billion for all of our priorities So this is an update.

It's I actually I See it as generally good news. It should be received positively. Obviously we'll have to watch the negotiations over the next few days here. and I got to go look at some real estate.

Let's go.