Hey everyone welcome back to an early morning, market open, live stream. Today we're going to talk about the jobs report which comes out in about two minutes. Uh two minutes jobs report comes out, be really interesting to see what we get uh today. If we're uh we're gon na see uh a substantial amount of inflation in wages, we're gon na see a uh decline or increase hopefully, and uh worker job uh participation.

We uh got the productivity numbers yesterday that weren't as good as expected, and, of course we are we're, also going to be looking for that headline number. What's that headline number going to look like in terms of how many jobs we've created, remember that last month was a was a pretty big miss for our jobs report in september. We did have covid, though a lot of a lot of complaints about kovid last month, but uh this month we're uh we're on to comparing to uh what october is going to look like. So this report comes out in about one minute kind of excited about that.

We give uh, let's give some expectations here, so uh we'll write these down so that way we have them. We've got our prescription pad right here, so uh. Let's compare here so we are expecting. Last month we had 194 000 jobs.

This month we were expecting a number of 420 with an unemployment rate moving down from 4.8 percent to 4.7 and uh average hourly earnings moving up 0.4 on the month and worker productivity at sixty one point: seven percent, as well as actually those are probably the most Important things: oh uh annual uh wage growth of about four point: nine percent annual okay good. So let's see what we get we're going to get the answer within the next uh few seconds. Here it's going to be very interesting to see if this is a miss or can we can we meet for once, let's see what we got all right, so okay time is now. I think everybody in the world.

Oh 5. 31. That's good down to 4.6! That's better than expected unemployment report comes in better than expected. This is very, very good, uh down 0.2 good good good uh.

Awesome. Awesome. Awesome! Let's see here, the month-over-month average hourly earnings for all employees, uh increased by 4.9 or in the annual. That's good! That's right! Along expectations for uh wage growth, so we're not like super high inflation or whatever uh average, hourly earnings, uh increased 11 cents, 11 cents, so 0.11 divided by 30.96.

That's uh! That's only oh well hold on here. Uh. Okay, 30.85 hold on a sec; okay, 11 cents. That seems, oddly low, it seems really low, uh private sector yeah.

That seems like a really a really low increase in uh in the average hourly earnings on a month-to-month basis. So that actually could be a good thing is that we meet met, sort of the over line or over overall headline number by actually beating it. We beat it by a hundred ten thousand uh. Actually, a hundred eleven thousand job beat that's really good.

Our annual inflation rate beat our unemployment rate actually fell by an extra point, uh one percent, which is really good. Job growth was widespread with notable gains in leisure and hospitality. This is actually exactly what we saw as well at um. What's it called um, let's see here uh.

This is exactly what we saw with the adp report on wednesday on wednesday we had uh a substantial boost in hospitality, employment, unemployment rate edged down to 4.6 percent number of unemployed. Okay among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men was four point: three percent adult women; four point: four percent teenagers: eleven point: nine whites, four percent; black; seven point: nine percent, asians four point: two percent hispanics: five point: nine percent labor force participation rate Was unchanged uh they were expecting a a bump up here. So that's a miss uh. It stayed at 61.6 percent yeah 1.7 lower than february of 2020., okay and then what we have here is.

We have 11.6 percent of people teleworking. I always i feel like that. Numbers it should actually be higher uh that more people are telling working, but all right, so monthly job growth, average, 582 000 non-farm payroll increase to 18.2 all right. What do we got here? Employment and leisure and hospitality increased 164 000 in october.

We've got professional and business services added 100. 000. So really companies a lot of companies adding workers, because leisure and hospitality is almost exclusively uh. I think food service here drinking places, accommodation, hotels, right, business services like management, consulting uh technical services, legal services.

This is really good in manufacturing up sixty thousand led by a gain in motor vehicles and parts, uh, fabricated, metals, chemicals, printing and related employment and transportation. Warehousing increased fifty 54 000 uh construction, employment rose by 44, 000 in october health care at 37, 000 retail trade, 35, 000 other services, 33k financial activities, 21k employment, wholesale trade, 14k mining 5k and then local government and state education down 43, 000 and 22, 000 and Private education went up 17. 000.. All right i mean that's, that's pretty good, that's not bad.

Let's uh! This is actually i'd, say a very, very good report. This is the kind of stuff that we want to see. It's not like it's overheating, but uh. Let's see how the market's responding the market likes, it market is happy uh.

That's good news. The market uh popped on that news, so uh very good, uh spy uh i mean it would move fractionally. So you know not like we're seeing a substantial move here. Let's go to uh yeah, even tesla tesla saw i mean tesla's, mostly flat here in pre-market, but tiny little bit of bump pop under etsy.

Here i can't really even see anything yeah, let's go to amazon or google, or some of these others. Yeah amazon likes that google, pretty much flat apl seems like most companies are happy about this. Let's take a look at what cnbc's saying i mean i'm happy about this one last night with a group of employers and the options are fairly limited. Either they've decided to simply leave the labor force and accept a lower standard of living.

They've decided to retire, or they really do pay people more not to work than we used to. I think the one thing you see in these numbers is a validation of some of the folks who are saying look as soon as the the supplemental unemployment runs out in september, you'll see a tick up in employment. This is the first jobs report to show that number. If there's anything looking forward, these are great numbers.

Let's, let's not, let's not, let's not miss the point there, but looking forward. What is this going to do? This is going to focus even more attention on the supply side. The demand side is looking good job's coming back very strong here. You've got those government jobs that have gone away temporarily temporarily.

Those teaching jobs have not gone forever. You're going to have competition between the government, the private sector, you're, going to see more demand for wages. It's going to draw more attention to the supply side of this inflation discussion, so yeah great job numbers, but looking forward it's going to draw more attention to whether or not we can get these goods and services to market austin. I have a political question for you.

I'm just going to make a note here, so i calculated the average monthly wage gain here with us going up 11 cents that works out to .355. And if you multiply that by 12, that means wages are going up, but at an annualized rate of about 4.2 percent, that's actually really good. Uh 4.2 percent is one of the lowest uh reads that we've had in a while here, uh cnbc is rounding, which i think is kind of lame. I saw uh cnbc threw up 4.4 sorry 4.6, but that's because they're rounding when you do the actual math 4.2 percent, is the non-rounded number.

It's pretty good, pretty good! So, let's see here, let's keep listening for a while back in the state that we were at the beginning of this year, where growth is high and - and i would think that that's gon na ben - that his popularity would benefit from that. But you know they: they got ta pass a bill. Uh they got ta, they got ta, get something from the from what he looks like he jumped over into politics there. So, let's pull off this here, see what we got in the market.

Bill.Com 14.31 percent pfizer's up 10.49 gopro sitting up 8.78 wow yelp 7.6 backed holdings 6 american airlines, six percent united six percent wow how'd. These airlines take off like this and why yeah what happened to the airlines? What is this all the airlines are freaking out. Well, don't sue me bro, but that one sounded pretty good. That was not a bad jobs report.

What happened here? Airlines rising asia? I don't know why the american! Oh, why? All of a sudden, the airline's out there's got to be some kind of news. The pfizer news oh really hold on, i have you, haven't seen this yet. Let me see here found it pfizer said its covet 19 pill reduces hospitalizations and deaths in high risk patients by 89. A result that has the potential to upend how the disease caused by covate is treated and alter the course of the pandemic shares surged 11.

The drug maker said in a statement friday that it was no longer taking new patients in clinical trials of the treatments due to overwhelming efficacy and plan to submit the findings to u.s regulators for emergency authorization as soon as possible. This sounds very familiar to the um to the merck pill, which it's kind of interesting, that you've you've basically got this competition of pills happening right now, but this is really good. The results mean there are now two promising candidates for treating covid19 patients early in the course of the disease. Last month, merck, ceo, there, you go and ridgeback a biotherapeutics submitted their experimental pill to regulators after showing it slashed the risk of getting seriously ill or dying by half in patients with moderate.

To mild. Covid pfizer, however, is suggesting that we can reduce hospitalizations and deaths by not half but rather 89. Oh, my gosh! This is really good. This is a pill that can be taken at home at the first sign of symptoms and apparently is a crucial tool for taming.

Well, i mean i would expect it would be a crucial tool for taming the covet 19 crisis globally. This is, this is really incredible: visor's trial out of 1219 unvaccinated adults and five days of treatment, the drug dramatically reduced the rate of hospitalization when it was started within either three or five days of symptom onset wow, not even of you uh. You know like testing positive or taking it before. You really have symptoms which is hard to do, because how are you supposed to know? But you three to five days after you start getting symptoms, which is amazing, because that gives you plenty of time to go to the doctor.

Gives you plenty of time to realize that you actually have covet? That's incredible. That's really good dramatically reduces the rate of hospitalization when it started within either three or five days of symptom onset, the drug packs lovid. That's the name. Pacslovid binds to an enzyme called protase to stop the virus from replicating itself.

Some drugs for hiv work in a similar way overall. Just point: eight percent of people who started treatment within three days of getting sick ended up in the hospital and no one died. While seven percent of people who got a placebo in that window were later hospitalized or died, it's a really good article here, thanks bloomberg for throwing this together. Similar results were found when the drug was started within five days of symptom onset, that's great, the result which hasn't been published, so it's either three to five days, but also similar results within five days.

Current treatment options for covet are not ideal. You have the uh monoclonal antibody cocktails, who remembers those regeneron eli lily uh gilead has remdezavir right but uh the pill like the merc pill. That was great news. The merc pill that you could reduce your chance of going in the hospital.

I'm sorry by uh reduce your chance of going into the hospital substantially, but also reduce your risk of death by 50, really really really good uh. This fizer pill, though, just takes the cake. Uh, i mean 80. What is 89 percent efficacy? That's really good.

The pill was internally developed by pfizer researchers in the u.s and uk. During the early pandemic shutdown, the scientists agreed to come back to their labs in an urgent effort to develop anti-covet pills. Company researchers worked around the clock to design this molecule in a highly compressed time frame. They dusted off an old experimental viral drug that pfizer had developed after the sars epidemic.

Also, a coveted cousin that killed about 800 people in o2 old drug needs to be administered. The old drug needs to be administered by iv, but by july of last year, pfizer researchers tweaked the original molecule and came up with a new compound that turned out to be highly potent against covalent test tubes and could be used as a pill wow. This is really good. That's amazing! Congratulations! Pfizer! This is absolutely uh excellent news.

I mean really really wonderful news uh! You know if somebody here in the comments is saying they lied about the efficacy of vaccine. Why do you think they're being fair now? Well, they actually didn't lie about the efficacy of the vaccine. The problem is the efficacy of the mrna vaccine just wanes right so uh, the pfizer vaccine was expected to be 90 plus percent, effective, uh right away when you take it, which is still the case. The problem is your efficacy after six months goes down to about 50, so you lose about 39 efficacy over a six-month period of time, which kind of makes sense that you get some form of diminished returns.

They also do indicate that you tend to have better uh immune response when you actually caught covid versus uh versus taking a vaccine solely because the memory t cells are much more robust and individuals who've actually had covet versus those who are vaccinated uh. So so there are, there are differences, you know, but uh still, you know they're quite effective uh. In fact, i was even looking at uh the odds of getting uh of even catching uh like getting a breakthrough or whatever odds, are getting covered or like without a vaccine or like 750 out of 10 000, but with a vaccine. It's like 150 out of 10 000., so you know it's still potential of catching it certainly but uh.

It's it's! Maybe one-fourth of uh the potential. If, if uh, you have the vaccine, so there's some interesting things uh, but i mean look if if i were and look the way to look at this is think about the folks who are unvaccinated think about uh those who have made the choice not to be Vaccinated and uh, let's say they end up catching covet and they they've got to go to the hospital they they're just getting so sick. You know they just got symptoms three four days ago or whatever they're so sick and they show up at a hospital and they're. Here, to take this pill, it's 89 likely to prevent you from dying.

That's really good! That's! This is really good. I mean it's: it's really uh a bailout for uh for folks who get terribly sick uh and are not vaccinated, uh or or who get terribly sick and are vaccinated, because that's also possible right this. This to me uh. This sounds like great news uh.

This is uh. This is awesome, uh, very, very, very cool. So why does pfizer sponsor so many media outlets uh? Well, you have uh a lot of medical agencies, advertise a whole lot and the reason you have that is because doctors get incentives for uh prescribing certain medications. So, for example, if if somebody comes in is like oh, i want you know, i i feel like.

I have asthma or whatever, and they get diagnosed with asthma. Uh, the patient might say hey by the way i've been seeing all these tv commercials for advair doctor be like oh, yes, uh, advair yeah i can. I can prescribe you edward and there's oftentimes a financial bonus or benefit to prescribing certain medications. That's just the way the medical industry works.

So that's why you hear like. Haven't you ever wondered? Why you hear all the why there are so many tv commercials about uh about medications like you're, not a doctor? Why do you care, if you know blah blah blah, will help you with your moderate to severe plaque, psoriasis or whatever right? And you hear all these commercials well, it's so that you can give that suggestion to your doctor uh and then encourage that medication, because you've already been primed that oh yeah yeah. I keep hearing about that drug must be good right. You know, look like that's just marketing right.

Seven nose turns into a yes right, so uh, it's not saying it's right or just saying it's the way it is but uh yeah i mean the market is, is uh, responding very well to uh to this uh. To this pfizer news, pfizer is up 11 norwegian cruise lines is up five and a half percent american airlines delta uh carnival even embraer uh. The the airplane manufacturers up uh you've, got uh spirits, southwest cinemark, las vegas sands, booking holdings marriott mgm amc. I mean all of these guys doing extremely well here on on on this pfizer news.

You know: you've got mixed in here. You've got cloudflare up about four percent at 209. Pretty incredible! That's uh! That's unrelated! I imagine from the pfizer vaccine discussion, but otherwise this is very impressive. So double good news today, good jobs report and uh solid, solid update here on a new drug from pfizer good.

I i like to call it the uh the bailout pill and this bailout pill is substantially more effective than the mark pill. So congratulations pfizer. That's really good! All right, let's see here what else do we have? Okay? So, okay, let me uh, for i see some comments here that are not sure exactly what i just talked about. I'm just gon na read the first couple lines here, really quick and then we'll then we'll move on so uh that way you have that so um.

The news just came out that pfizer said it has a covenant. 19 pill that reduces hospitalizations and deaths in high risk patients by 89. I i didn't even notice the first time around that it said high risk patients - that's even better, because that means it probably is even more effective against low-risk patients right as a result, uh that uh a result that has the potential to upend how the disease caused By covet is treated after the course of the pandemic shares surged 11 drug maker said in a statement on friday that it was no longer taking new patients at a clinical trial of the treatment due to overwhelming efficacy. Really really good news on on this uh pfizer.

Pal, so i'm pretty excited about it. So, okay, what other news do we have? Let's see here? Let's, let's see what jim jimbo's got going on, let's listen to jimbo we're unhappy are the people who own the stocks that required you to stay inside. So you know the the uber and lyft, and all that i mean it should be. Those are all rear-view mirror, uh problems, except maybe peloton.

I don't know what happens with peloton. I know what happened to peloton come on folks. How many times have i said, i've been out of peloton that what happened to peloton was very easy to see. The writing was on the wall.

Okay, website data down deliveries, increased in speed price went down so wait a minute. Add these things together. Folks website traffic went down, price of the product went down and, at the same time, website traffic started going down and price started going down. The delivery estimates for the products started plummeting.

I kid you not like these things were so blatantly obvious. If you were just looking for them, it is literally why i sold my peloton stock uh somewhere around three months ago, but it was blatantly obvious. You could even do a google trend search and see that peloton searches were down, so peloton searches are down website. Traffic is down the price got slashed and at the same time as searches are down and price goes down, you'd think like price, going down, would increase activity in peloton or that more people would look at their website or be interested in the product and potentially buy It didn't happen, you started seeing uh delivery time frames come down during the supply crisis and the company of firm started, distancing itself from peloton.

I don't know like how many more catalysts you need when, when a partner company that relies on it for financial purposes is distancing itself from peloton, like oh yeah, you know we used to be heavily relying on palestine, but now we're not anymore. You know that's a sign of bad things to come from peloton sales, because i can tell you everybody at the buy now pay later platform, a firm probably knew what these peloton statistics were going to be, but again the writing was all over all over all right. What do we got over okay here, going to commercial? Fine? Now, oh! Well, that's not going to work! Okay! Fine! Then hop on over here, so uh all right. What else do we have here? Good news on that jobs report, though? Oh, let's uh, let's listen in here for a moment.

One moment there we go markets that stephanie and john alaska talk to the markets, are either complacent or they're telling us something they might be complacent if they're telling us something what they're telling us is this? The bond market yield is very low. It's been two below two percent wherever you look out ten years out seven years out five years and the signal is the market is not worried about inflation. We talk about it. A lot on cable television, but the market doesn't seem to be worried about that.

It might be complacent or it might know something in terms of the stock market. New highs all the time it might be exuberant or it might be telling us that the outlook for profits is really strong low in price, low inflation, strong, strong profits. If you have money in the market, you're doing pretty well right now, uh. So that's a pretty good environment to be in if you're, a small business owner and you're trying to get a worker, that's a different story.

Yeah, that's absolutely a different story: uh jody as you've been telling us. What can you tell us about small businesses right now? Well, the small businesses are actually going to be in a position to have an advantage very soon with this new mandate, maria, because the new osha mandate is requiring employers with a hundred employees or more to mandate that they have vaccines or to have weekly pull off. Here, uh osha, by the way, occupational safety really tough uh when it comes to uh, doing work in construction. I remember that, following the osha rules for like asbestos, removal or uh lead-based paint, uh ladder safety workers - oh my gosh, the rules are insane.

It's probably a good thing, but the problem is the rules are so insane that compliance with this stuff is extremely low and uh. That's that's no bueno! You know that's a that's one of the. The things is like. If you make the rules too, stringent compliance actually tends to go down.

It's generally the opposite of what uh regulators are seeking for or seeking to accomplish so um, all right, so uh. What else do we have here? Let's see here, let's go to the sticks again and see it's the sticks. You know build.com. I can't believe this thing's, like a 30 billion dollar market cap, honestly uh, it's good service, but uh boy, oh boy, i'm just shocked, they're, so expensive, what's losing today by the way uh.

Let's see here - oh gosh, pelton's down 33 percent. What's reporting earnings today by the way earnings whisperers? Okay, today we have uh. Oh draftkings reported pre-market cinemark. Let's look at draftkings, everybody seems to be very interested in draftkings lately, all right.

Let's see what draftkings reported draftkings falls: 11 after missing analyst revenue expectations, ouch draftkings reports, a loss per share of a dollar 35. The estimate was 1.05 ouch miss on the bottom line and we have uh. The consensus was 236.9 million revenue 12 in the top and the bottom line. That's a bummer gosh.

This is one. That's just been getting wrecked wrecked you're, not in this one but very interesting kevin. If you're tired of permit issues and waiting forever buy indiana properties, we get same-day permits and cheaper housing wow jealous that's crazy. That's amazing! Good! For you square! Hey! Look at that square is moving up.

It's up. 1.34. I wonder if there's any particular news on why square is running, let's go see what we have square, let's see here, yeah, so square no square says bitcoin demand slowed in q3, but picked up in october. That's interesting! I don't actually see why squares running.

They did get a price target bomb. They got a price target bump to 360 from 335 at rosenblatt securities and needham actually cut them. Needham cut them from 350 down to 315. ouch.

So this could just be a a buy or a whale here of some sort. Coming in and uh shopping for square, i don't think there's a particular particular reason: we're seeing uh move right now, right now: trending stocks, draftkings, pfizer and peloton penn national gaming is also up here: square uh and nvidia nvidia. Just it's! You just can't stop this stock. It's up another 1.55.

It's absolutely insane kevin. You should add sun run to the solar company. Add it to the watch. It's just oh here for that sunrun.

I thought we had sunrun on on our watch list. Don't we run? Oh? No, apparently we don't yeah. I mean i don't mind, adding sunrun all right here, we go, we did it, we did it yeah kathy, going shopping for draftkings, who knows maybe it seems like usually cathy's. Fun buys at the end of the day, but i suppose they could buy at any point of the day.

Alright. What else do we have here? Oh good revisions to august and september jobs show 235 000 more jobs than expected. That's a bump of about a hundred thousand each month. So that's good! Let's listen to that, but we could you know maybe a little breather.

I would trade the end of the pandemic for a little breather in the stock market, even though she just said that everybody's rich and staying at home - maybe that's the problem. Maybe that's i don't know. Maybe that isn't bad we got, we should probably show bitcoin. I think we're at about 61 000., everyone's rich and staying at home and then pfizer and the drug stocks.

I mean they're moving in opposite directions this morning. So well, let's, let's do it. Let's do it again. Next week, uh please join us as we always do.

Squawk on the streets, next, nice - all right, let's see good friday morning, welcome to squawk on the street. I'm karl kenton here with jim kramer at the new york stock exchange david faber, has the morning off looking for record highs across the board at the open on a wave of good news october jobs beat 531 000 best number since july. Positive revisions pfizer releases strong data on its covet antiviral pill. We may even finally get infrastructure weak today, as the house tries to get a vote.

That was a good joke. That was a really good joke. We actually might get something out of congress and pandemic stocks. Are taking a hit while reopening plays, are surging we're going to talk about which ones are moving, and why start with pfizer, though, shares are surging after a study showed an experimental hovid19 and a viral pill cut the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90 percent.

Pfizer's ceo joined squawk box this morning commented on if the pill would have an impact on people getting vaccinated. The fact that we have a treatment is not a polar reason not to take the vaccine. In fact, we should take the vaccine. It's for sick people uh.

If the goal here is to prevent people from getting sick, so if you take it within the first three days, jim 89 protection uh from hospital three to five days, wait five days. Still, eighty-five percent look: oh okay, uh dr godley is we know him as as straight shooter. By the way, uh frank del rio runs a ceo of norwegian crews, hired a doctor to figure out what to do, and dr collins had just investigated everybody and we joe he was joking with me last night, the real dr godley was a much more fun-oriented guy. I thought he almost broke into a smile this morning when you said the pandemic's over wow.

He said this is it with insight it's over, and i think that yes, the employment number's really important, but i now think this reminds me of my father's tell a story about how uh he was in the invasion force for japan uh, because he was in the Sixth army - and they told him this - you have to be first we're gon na invade honshu, and there won't be a lot of survivors and then one day the atomic bomb won and they told the war's over you're, not invading hanzo. I mean th this. This is the atomic bomb. When often we are not.

The numbers are staggering much better than merck, and i think that we should i'm not saying we should go out in the street and celebrate but like they did at the end of world war. Two, but it to me honestly. It's really good news like it's. It's that leftover bailout opportunity and and at 89 uh or 85 percent.

If that's what it is after five days phenomenal uh i mean that's, that's really. This is really good uh, i'm surprised, honestly, the the coveted stocks or the recovery stocks aren't even up more but uh anyway. Look at that dave and buster's up 3.89 percent. I'm never going to get it back down to 30 to go shopping for it again.

Uh airbnb united airlines norwegian carnival these guys just running on this news. Great uh expi, is up another three percent after that sell-off after the zillow nonsense. Let's take a look at the zillow by the way. How is zillow doing uh zillow point seven percent to the downside here and face point four: two percent of the downside: amazon's, basically flat uh we've got a rocket mortgage three point: five: three google point: four uh moderna, oh wow moderna, getting wrecked again: oh oh wow, Yeah, look at that uh moderna, just uh just dropped 14.8 percent on this news here, let's see and and merc's going down too it's crazy dude.

This is why i don't get into bio. Like i was thinking to myself. The merc news was like it got me scratching my head, like, oh, if the merc news is is you know, remember that merc pill, the the red pill, a 50 efficacy or whatever uh it almost it almost had me thinking like. I wonder if i should invest in merck.

It takes me a while to do research on stocks before i actually invest, and i don't invest in any biotech. Really. I've got a little bit of money and, like a small amount of money in modern that i invested in 120 bucks, which means it's still a double, but i i really hope moderna goes back basically way low because then uh uh, then we can actually buy it. After covid as like a real long-term kind of mrna play as well as pfizer right, they they do great work as well, so we'll see redfin down 3.43, basically giving up half of what it gained.

Yesterday, point two: five percent: a little little uh less than half uh a firm was up four point: six, two percent. Yesterday, it's only that's uh down one point: seven: nine percent here in the pre-market gilead coming down a little bit on this uh pfizer news as well. Let's uh, let's see what else we have here: let's go to other headlines all right, so yeah back on track. I think that's a good way to put it goldilocks payrolls report unlikely to sway fedpat.

I agree with that. I don't think this payroll report was was uh. I think honestly i mean this was yesterday. I made a video.

I go best thing that could happen. Is we we beat slightly and that's literally what happened we we beat slightly. I think it's great, why? Why am i getting this? I don't care about the progressive eqs, sedan anyway uh, but yeah unemployment report was, i think, excellent, we'll be hearing from joe biden later. This morning on the jobs report, you can bet he's going to tout numbers, yep uh, definitely frustrated by the election results on tuesday who, by the way, what like got, involved or or uh paid attention to that virginia race.

I'm gon na run a poll uh. I wan na see how many of you actually paid attention that virginia race. Did you pay attention to the virginia governor's race? Yes, no, i'm just curious, oh not at an option. I don't want to do that.

There we go! Ask your community! Okay! There we go! Uh yeah, okay, good! So, okay, i just put the poll up. So if you don't anybody can vote, you don't have to be a member to vote or whatever uh, but anyway check that out vote. If you don't mind, i'm just curious to see how many of you are we're paying attention to that governor race, wow, okay, i'm actually surprised by the numbers, we'll talk about the numbers in just a second, but because i don't want to skew the skew the numbers Yet uh so far, 825 of you have voted so for the other 9500 of you. Listening with your phone down somewhere, walk over pick it up and vote uh all right.

Let's see bloomberg economics. Today's non-farm payroll reading is solid and significant, a significant improvement. It's not a blockbuster, that's true! It's not a blockbuster, but that's okay, because we don't necessarily want an overwhelmingly hot report either, because then, then you start stoking fears of inflation again right so uh. You know good good news on on that front, right um.

So, let's see here looks like give a short recap of of the jobs report for some folks. Let's see here so, let's see black women see biggest drop in participation since april of 2020 wow one group left behind black women. That's interesting, uh, okay, give a i! I suppose a very brief summary here, because there's some folks who have joined later and aren't familiar yet with with the jobs report so um make sure we can do that. Really, quick! Okay.

I wrote down the numbers here, quick summary on the jobs report. We were expecting 420 000 jobs. We beat that by 110 000.. We came in at 530 with a revision upwards of about a hundred thousand in each month.

For august and september, great news: it's not an overly hot employment report, but it is a slight beat which is great, fed likely to stay the course with tapering, not accelerating or decelerating to stay the course we got a headline drop to 4.6 percent on the unemployment Rate uh inflation for wages went up on an annualized rate of about 4.2 percent, slightly slower than uh than expected, we're expecting 0.4 month over month. We got point three: five: five percent annualizes four point: two percent labor force participation actually fell point one percent, which is not so good. Uh and annual inflation uh for wages came in at four point: nine percent right along expectations. This was a good jobs report and the stock market is absolutely cheering it so good job, not overheating, which is also good.

You don't want to overheat all right, cool, so nice little summary there all right, let's see here, okay, good, so um! Now what else do we have here? Let's see they're still talking about gottlieb uh. This is the end of the pandemic, as we know it. Let's go ahead and hop on over for a moment. I want to listen over here for a sec.

It was an absolute mess, it was political intimidation, we've seen a lot of this recently, it's not just intimidation, i think it's illegal. I mean i don't think you're allowed to unlawfully detain something protesters surrounding mansion's car yeah. We're not going to talk about that, but the margins aren't as good, because labor costs are so high uh. But again i come back to the idea that maybe labor costs were too low.

Uh now jay pal did say that we don't know when the when the pandemic ends, whether more people come back to work. He said it's a wild card uh. Can you stop those press conferences? Now i mean geez. That's like an hour of your life with hollywood squares, jay! Listen to me! It's okay! I, like the press conference genius.

Let's watch it, maybe maybe over communicating. You think well like that, the fed yeah over communicating and plus he always has to a lot of the people i think, are disrespectful uh. Well, axios has a peace out last night that he was uh seen near the white house, axios reads it as a a sign that he, the renomination, may be coming. Oh boy, we really need that.

I mean he said i think he's well. Look, i'm i'm not a gigantic, a billionaire, all the billionaires hate him and they always say it's, because what he's doing to the workers are you kidding me? I mean all your costs are going up. If you're working you, you bet, you better, have it and the workers are doing better than they ever have in my lifetime. I mean look at the deer workers, i mean they have a good deal and they they said.

No to it i mean okay um, i don't. I don't know if everybody's gon na agree that the workers are doing great right now, i think there's a lot of people that are still not doing great jim, but uh, okay, uh, i do think uh. I know i i don't mind the press conferences with jerome powell. I think it i think, we've gotten so familiar with how jay powell operates uh and it's it's a really.

It's a good thing. We want to be familiar with how jpow operates uh, let's see what briefly for another minute here. If uh, you know jimmy stewart i mean it could have been, it could have been the fact that we won't be working for potter, the other potter vs right. We won't be worth you know, it was potter or bailey and jane gave us bailey.

I called him jay because i know him. I don't mean to insult him. Well, i mean, i always see those people like mr ambassador, it's like whether i talk to you yeah um. There, the the odds of a june hike, have come down last few days.

People are big, maybe coming around to the idea that he's right about these short-term inflationary bottlenecks. He is free, that's true! Yes, i mean, if you buy, that that um, if you buy the global foundries, which very important deal that came, public people aren't paying attention if they can get the chips. Taiwan and semi can make the chips. If they, you know, kla uh lammers.

You know lamb applied materials, they all get the chips, then we're gon na stop. Hearing about that, the poor thing is is is difficult. Talking too yeah truck well truck is there's a lot of truckers, who are banding together little groups to become truckers and get extract. More of their worth uh to have their own trucking companies.

I think these problems go away and i think jay's right that you know it's wheaton, you know what do you do about price he's? Not a gentleman farmer, for heaven's sake i mean and he's not. The rain maker jp morgan last night looked at global, auto sales in october up three. Finally - and they do see that as a sign that at least maybe in autos we're starting to see some of these well, please maybe i i autos, i still think, is a first half of 2022 and we'll know this. When i get the maverick that i ordered in march, i would have just i ordered this thing.

I was, i ordered it to gordon last year. I'm look, i hope i get it to be able to garden this year. I was going to go to every eagles game with it. Wait where's, my maverick jim farley call your office yeah.

Where is my darn maverick? I mean what is that all about? What was that a tv show? I thought it was a mini truck when we return. Uber is moving higher ahead of the open company posts, its first ever adjusted. Profit gross bookings, all-time high dara on squawk, talking about good driver availability and some business travel more squawk on the street continues. After a break wow all right, so um yeah, okay, i guess it's worth probably talking about j-pal.

I don't know um they're, okay, let's, let's do this. There is a possibility, and - and i think this is this - is something to consider as a potential market crash catalyst. Now i don't want to sound like footish like okay, we go market crash again right, but there there is a serious potential. Uh market crash catalyst that we really haven't been talking about, and that is the potential that joe biden ends up, not nominating jerome powell.

For the federal reserve again right now, we do expect that uh jerome powell is going to renominate uh or joe biden is going to renominate jerome powell. We expect that and the cool thing about jerome powell is, we know jerome powell right we're very familiar with john powell. We've gone through this entire pandemic with him. We know that he's on the slightly dovish side.

We know where he stands on inflation. He thinks it's going to be transitory. Eventually, he thinks by q2 and q3 of 2022 inflation's going to go down. That's going to happen at the same time as the taper completes and at that time we'll be able to assess if it makes sense to raise rates at that time or not uh and how quickly to raise rates.

There are expectations, as of last month, 60 percent of market participants expected interest rates to go up starting in june. However, we just heard on cnbc that that rate is now declining uh and that the market is beginning to potentially more so believe, uh jerome powell that uh it is possible that rates could go down uh or maybe not rates, go down, but uh that that inflation Does inflict down and q2 and q3 and the necessity to raise rates uh goes down in in the summer of uh, 2022., so uh that that is very clear, and so, when jerome powell changes his his tune a little bit, we can really easily determine okay. This is a huge shift. This is a slight shift like we know.

Jerome powell is really predictable. He's really clear. Uh he's easy to understand. I actually think he does a very good job now.

How could there potentially be a market crash, uh catalyst, uh? Well, the market crash catalyst uh, let's see here, would essentially be that if joe biden says hey, i'm gon na pick somebody else the market could temporarily freak out because the market's going to have uncertainty every time the market has uncertainty, stocks seem to fall and the Uncertainty would be what, if we get somebody who is a real hawk, who wants to raise rates like crazy starting now? What if we get somebody who's, a real dove and doesn't raise rates quickly enough, and we end up getting hyperinflation fears of both extremes. In my opinion will happen or be amplified if joe biden ends up not renewing jerome powell uh as chairperson on the federal reserve uh. I think the best and smartest thing for joe biden to do would be to re-nominate jerome powell, because it'll keep stability, and so that's why i say it's smart, because the last thing joe biden needs right now is more political instability. Thanks to the disaster that we've had on uh with this infrastructure package and infrastructure negotiations uh, so if joe biden really cares about the infrastructure package and keeping the economy somewhat, you know on the on the skinny path to to normalcy, please renominate, j pal.

It's worth noting the bond market really doesn't see, uh a lot of fear right now. You know we. If we look at the 10-year tips, we did this yesterday as well 10-year tips, uh or the 10-year break, even which is the difference between the 10-year treasury rate and the tips uh. It's actually come down a little bit here, let's zoom in just to see this inflection here, yeah, look at this towards the end of october.

Inflation fears have somewhat started subsiding a little bit. Obviously, this number is very, very volatile, so you're looking for larger inflection points, and we got a larger inflection point to the downside there with 10-year treasury yields now sitting at 1.511 percent. This is great. This is a nice decline off some of the highs that we've been having.

So i think it's great uh and hopefully joe biden, doesn't leave us with uh with a new market crash catalyst because really that's the last thing we need is uh. Another market crash catalyst. So uh, but but in it seriously, though, that that is a very real concern that if joe biden does not re-nominate powell, the market will be very uncertain until we get a nomination and uh. I don't think it's going to take much to upset the stock market and for stock prices to fall substantially.

Given these recent runs that we've seen to all-time high levels, i mean some company names are just insane right now, etsy end phase, a firm tesla, i mean these. These prices are insane even matterport. I know it's down from its highs, but holy smokes uh things are just expensive. It's hard to go shopping, it's kind of annoying hey, maybe maybe we want jaypal to to get replaced and then we get another shopping opportunity, stock market but uh.

No, i don't know that you want to encourage any form of uncertainty right now, honestly, so all right what else we got uh all right. So what else we have? Let's go to the sticks. This sticks see some of the comments too, oh uh. By the way, i also um 64 of you voted and you didn't pay attention to the governor's race in virginia and 36 percent of you said that you did.

That was interesting. Ah i've been thinking about this. You know, does it make sense to buy peloton on the dip? Oh man, that's a that's a tough ask! Uh! Let's see here, i don't think youtube. Will let you post links.

Whoever is asking in the chat, bring back the helicopter. What uh j pal is the only person wall street is looking at for confidence. I don't agree with that. All right, yeah square is adding uh squares is moving nicely.

Okay. I do want to see let's look at peloton just briefly. Let's, let's look at some other numbers here: yeah: okay, as we get to the opening bell here, so peloton investor relations yeah because i mean they're just getting destroyed now the problem is and - and they said this in their earnings - call that they have this impression of Being a an expensive luxury good and that impression has been hard for them to shake. I believe that so you know, i think, that's that's just not so ideal, but you go over here.

It's just the growth rate is falling right mean we looked at this briefly. Yesterday that you've got advertising, look at this sales and marketing up substantially right, 2.5 x, increase in sales and marketing. Yet uh connected fitness products declined in sales year over year. It's just not good.

Uh people don't want to see declining growth, and that makes it very difficult to value this kind of company. Let me see what the outstanding shares are on this thing. So pton, let's see here, piton, okay per share data. Here we go so if we just do a quick look here, we have about 301.2 million shares outstanding and uh if we go well we're not profitable anymore great okay.

Fine! Let me go to let's look at some other headlines here. Okay, so not expected to be profitable for a bit. Now, that's not ideal! You get to so. Let's say you get to a dollar of eps earnings in 2025..

Okay, so you get to a dollar of eps in 2025, you're, paying 59 times 2025 revenue or earnings for this company with with now a slowing growth rate, it's not as ideal they're, just better opportunities, even at the price where it is now. I think the market look, i'm a big fan of buying the dip, but you're still paying a lot of money at 57 for a company that whose growth rate just just plummeted. That's not so good yeah. I don't.

I don't know that i could really jump up and down about buying the dip on piton. So, let's see here back to financial horses, i want to see their their uh shareholder deck again here. If we can actually see that peloton, usually i prefer to look at the actual uh quarterly report, but i briefly i want to see what their forecast was, because i'm pretty sure they put it in. Here we looked at this yesterday.

There see fiscal year, q2 guidance. So they think they're going to get to 1.1 to 1.2 billion in revenue totally or total uh. Half of that, i believe, is going to be subscriptions. So let's see here so because subscriptions tend to be somewhat sticky here we go so subscription revenue at 304.

We expect that to increase, i would say, probably at maybe like a 20 clip. So let's say this is 360. That's gon na put us for the next quarter, which is the winter quarter at probably, let's see they're guiding one point. Let's say the median estimate guide here: is this minus three six call it even four: that's still a better clip of sales if they could do three quarters of a million in product that'd be fifty percent more than what they did in the last three months.

I i don't know if, if we'd actually see that uh, but it's it's very interesting to me - oh workouts are going down yeah look at this. This is interesting, you're, actually seeing workouts starting to decline, so usage of of the bike or treadmill yeah. This makes sense that subscriptions are going up, but even the rate of subscriptions here quarter to quarter is actually not growing. That much see look at that last quarter.

That's 23, 31 divided by oops. Sorry, i always take the new number divided by the old number. 24. Divided by 23 is everyone that is that's only a seven percent uh connected fitness subscription growth quarter recorder, not twenty percent, that's not good.

I mean, maybe that means more product sales or they're, going to miss that it's not something i could be excited about uh. I i like it when dips happen, but it's not something i could be excited about. I'd honestly be more excited about zillow uh than than uh than piton. So yeah.

That's that's a rough one because you're paying for growth 59 times pe gosh you're, better off buying tesla at today's price and that's probably a 59 20 25 pe uh always take the new number divided by the old number. Why didn't they teach this in school? I know schools are disappointing, very disappointing all right. What do we got? Some of their arpu metrics were below expectations on this hold rate on nfl games. Jim i'll tell you what was interesting uh there have been no upsets, there have been no upsets and that that really hurt them.

That and uh the overall i mean it's funny, but if you're i don't gamble. But if you look at these, what happened is that there's no surprises, so therefore it hasn't been as exciting uh, i think jason's, absolutely terrific and one of the things i really liked about is that he basically told you look. This is not what we need and uh that's become a very expensive business there's, so many companies vying for the cost of acquisition is very high. It almost reminds me, as my friend ben stotto who's.

The research director for money says that it's kind of like the can the cannabis stocks a couple years ago, where they're just okay. We are uh one minute from the opening here. Let's go ahead and take a look at crypto here quickly. So look at this.

We got bitcoin at 61.63 slightly down here. I honestly, i wonder if it moved on jobs. Data uh, as inflation expectations came in a little less than expected. Let's see here, let's go to the trading view.

It'll be a little easier to see it here. Let's go to the uh, we can honestly we could go. We should be able to go to the minute here so november. Five, ah just show me weeble, i'm actually shocked, but yeah.

Let's go. We will okay, one minute chart here, we're looking for 5 30.. No, we got, we actually got a boost. There temp a little temporary boost in btc sitting at 61.

Uh five you've got uh ethereum and you got the bell coming up here: ethereum 45, 18. Solana. 238. All right! Let's listen to the a bell: let's get the opening bell here and the cnbc real-time exchange as a big board, scooter company bird celebrating its recent listing via spot at the nasdaq.

It's get net a brazilian provider of online credit card payments, celebrating its listing so you're going to watch a lot of green whoa. Oh my gosh! Look how green it is. Oh, oh, my gosh! Oh my gosh! It's like 96 green, holy crap! Oh my gosh! That is insanity holy moly. You can't stop the end of the year rally.

Folks, you just can't stop it. We have been expecting this end of the year rally all year long and here it is it's here uh, oh, my goodness, all right. Let's, let's see how things are moving in the day holy moly uh is it? Is that from yesterday? Is that not updated yet nicola? Okay yeah? I don't think that was updated yet hold on. Let's, let's see what's actually happening here there we go okay, peloton, pelton, somewhat turning red at the intro here, moderna trying to turn green at the beginning, merc moving down fastly holy moly fastly like had a really good earnings, uh and then all of a sudden i Mean the stock price ran now it's falling nine percent.

The only reason for this, i think, would be an offering is that they uh they offer chairs or something like that, because that's crazy uh nope, never mind. There is no such news. They just ran on earnings. People got in people got out wow nicola down almost 10 percent.

Oh that's! After their sec settlement. They they ran up like crazy, wow, redfin's down again four and a half percent. How is the s p? 500, so green. Yet you've got some of these stocks really getting hurt here.

Draftkings uh down about two point: seven percent right now, uh you've got in vitae down one point: nine two percent duck you sign down. One point six: five, let's see here so phi is down one and a quarter percent zillow's down again: 1.35 open door down a bit redfin's down a bit; okay. Let's look at the winners right now, bill.com running, but softening a little bit here: gopro up uh 12.7 cloud flare folks! Oh my gosh! It is now at uh, seven uh, two two, sixteen two! Ah, back to what are we at 213 share now, but really good job cloudflare? Five point: eight: six percent to the upside mp material up: six percent penn gaming's not backed up airbnb 6.3; a lot of the recovery stocks, the airlines doing well pfizer uh up at eight and a half percent owlette 3.9. Okay, lots of movement.

Here there we go matterport coming back three percent, going back to 21, a share very nice disney, hey is c3 ai. Ever gon na go up uh, it was up up a quarter percent uh. Okay. Paypal is actually up a tiny little bit today, hippo.

What? If a sorrow start here, let's see here, yeah look at that the s p 500 briefly went negative there and uh now now positive again, how's neo neo is up about uh point one: five percent tesla tesla is up about point two percent fascinating gravity holding nicola.