Hey everyone me kevin here welcome. Welcome all right jobs. Report comes out in about 30 seconds, we're kind of excited, let's see what it is looking for, a top-line number is it going to be over 500k, and is it going to be over 550k is actually estimate. 554 and of course, the inflation month over month of wages is going to be huge uh.

So let's see what we get that's going to be exciting, so it comes out any second now waiting for it. Let's see, cnbc usually gets it embargoed, so they might have it a few seconds before us and let's see what we get uh whoa uh, okay, it came in at a big, miss. That's a big miss two hundred ten thousand unemployment rate did decline by four point. Two, but it's a miss of two hundred ten thousand, that's actually that should be good for stocks uh.

It's not an overheating. That's uh, in my opinion, better than uh than what we um then certainly than overheating. We don't want to overheat uh. Let me quickly see if i can find out what the inflation number is, but 210, that's definitely a miss uh from expectations.

We were expecting uh five uh 554. Okay. Here we go average work week, okay, increase! Let's see average work week week. Here we go: uh average hourly earnings increased by eight cents, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.8 over the past 12 months, 8 cents, so 8 cents would be 3 103 uh divided by the prior number of 30 95.

That gives you uh 0.0025 times 12., that that's about 3 percent, that's lower than expected. That's actually, in my opinion, good. This is not an uh over. That's not an overheating at all in the market.

Uh! That's uh! That's! If anything, just on kind of pace, we're growing uh unemployment rate again uh fell by point four percent uh four point: two percent: that's great uh: the inflation rate's only three percent for wages, that's very good! Uh we've got uh two hundred ten thousand jobs. This is, this is phenomenal. I mean honestly, this is. This is the best case scenario.

This is literally the best case scenario: employment in retail trade declined over this month in november. Really retail trade declined? That's a shocker uh, let's see here. What else do we have here? The number of unemployed people fell to 542 or fell 542 000 to 6.9 million. Both measures are considerably uh are down considerably from their highs, however, remain above the levels.

Prior to the pandemic. We had 5.7 million people unemployed now we're at 6.9 uh. Let's see the unemployment rate for adults. Adult men was four percent adult women, four percent whites, 3.7 percent, black 6.7 hispanics 5.2.

It's actually a big fall for blacks and hispanics, both of them. I remember most of the recent reports were well over seven percent, so that's a big fall on the unemployment rate for a lot of folks. Now, how does the unemployment rate fall so much without having uh, basically a ton of new jobs right? Well, you can actually get people falling out of the labor force. So, let's, let's read what we got over here, see among the unemployed.

The number of permanent job losers declined to 1.9, but it's still 623 000 higher than usual number of persons on temporary layoff decline decreased by 255k, the number of long-term unemployed those unemployed for more than hold on a second. Why is this not working there? We go. Okay, uh, the number of long-term unemployed 2.2 changed a little okay, the labor force participation rate edged up. Oh that's, good! That's actually much better than expected.

61.8 participation rate is still 1.5 percentage points lower. That's a lot! Remember: 1.5 percent. On top of our uh uh, you know our population uh or working population about 150. 000.

Sorry, 150 million people is a lot right, so we want to get that labor force participation rate up number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons, stupid thing, um, look at that working; okay, number person's unemployed part-time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million changed little and a Number of persons not in the labor force, who currently want a job, was at 5.9 little changed over the month, but up 849 k since fab marginally attached to the labor force, little uh little changed 1.6 mil share of people who teleworked was 11.3 percent and in November 3.6 million people reported they were unable to work because their employer closed or lost their business through the pandemic, 1.2 million people were also prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic. Let's see what else we have here. Monthly growth has averaged 555k. We came in at 210k, so a lot less than expected and see if we have any revisions here: okay, business, professional business services, added 90, 000 jobs, uh administration, white collar style, jobs, technical service jobs, uh, 69, 000 below its level in feb, 2020 warehousing, increased 50k Construction, employment, increased 31k.

I i don't know why. One of these, the star computer, won't turn on it's apple, again, apple's back at it again: uh employment, employment and financial act. Uh activities continued to trend up 13 000 manufacturing added uh 31. 000.

There we go wow. What's wrong with that thing, anyway: uh employment, leisure and hospitality, up 23, 000 healthcare, employment, unchanged, um, employment, little change in other major industries, including wholesale trade information, other services, education. Okay, what about let's see any any particular losers? Not really not not a lot of negs here good! I mean it seems like an overall, very, very good report. Uh, i'm i'm happy with this uh.

It feels like, quite frankly, the best case scenario september, payroll's revised two three. Let me let's listen to this, for a second here is not healthy austin. Should i put you in that camp with steve and karen as well just the the ones who don't necessarily believe the headline number you or what do you think? Well, i would say i have a theory which is, if you start your own company, you show up in the household survey as employed, but you do not show up in the in the establishment survey because you don't have any track record you're, not in the tax Records so, as you come out of recessions, a lot of times, if you got a lot of new business formation, you'll see big revisions and you'll see a divergence in the jobs being created. They say in the household survey above, what's in establishment, this great yeah.

This is actually interesting. I was reading the wall street journal last night and take a look at what the wall street journal said yesterday actually retweeted this article yesterday. So if you don't yet follow me on twitter, i encourage you to follow me on twitter at realme. Kevin but anyway take a look at this workers quit their jobs in droves to become their own bosses uh.

This was from a few days ago, but it was still sort of like a lead up to this. The pandemic has unleashed a historic burst in entrepreneurship and self-employment. Hundreds of thousands of americans are striking out on their own as consultants, retailers and small business owners. The move helps explain the ongoing shake-up in the world of work with more people looking for flexibility, uh and then anxious about covet exposure, upset about vaccine mandates or simply disenchanted with pre-pandemic office life number of unincorporated.

Self-Employed workers has risen by 500 000 uh. Since the start of the pandemic, the labor department shows to 9.44 million and what's interesting, let me just show you the chart here, really quick without going through the whole thing uh. If i just go to twitter you'll be able to see my last tweet here, yeah here, look at this screenshot, it's from the wall street uh journal, and this shows you monthly volume of business application by likely non-employers, so basically uh by likely self-employed folks. This is uh.

This is kind of what what we're seeing uh yeah anyway. Okay, so let's go ahead and see how the stock market is reacting to the goodies that we've got going on here. I am expecting very good, but, given that this darn thing was not awake, i will find out in just a second here we go there. We go okay good.

So what do we got here? Oh look at this a reversal in up star. We know the there's been some accelerating progress for zillow uh. Some, some buybacks of the stock at very cheap levels and uh looks like they're progressing on offloading their properties to uh commercial individuals, larger funds docusign just continuing to get smoked it's at 160.. I did a video on docusign yesterday if you wanted to see a deep dive on it.

Dd global, it's getting closer to getting d listed. Look at that down 10.13. I think that's gon na be bad for the other chinese stocks and it is jd following 4.93. Look at that alibaba down another 2.38, a neo down another 2.

These companies don't deserve the pain, but you can't look at these companies and just isolate them and and suggest that, oh, you should buy these companies because they're a good value or whatever you. You have much more risk than just value at these companies. You have a huge risk that these companies get de-listed and then you have to figure out how to get your shares out of the hong kong stock exchange. Do you want your shares to be in the hong kong stock exchange? Probably not so what do you end up having to do? Well, you probably end up having to uh.

You know create a brokerage who or or not, create a brokerage but uh open an account at some sort of brokerage who's capable of trading. These shares, uh, who knows maybe fidelity and td, can help with something like that and um yeah you'd uh you'd certainly be in a market with a whole lot, less liquidity of like robin hood style, buyers or whatever so you'd expect that uh the price the market Would be willing to pay, for those shares would be substantially lower. So that's usually why you see these things sell off a little bit uh when, when you talk about de-listing and then re-listing at a different exchange anytime, you take liquidity away. It's it's just a bad thing.

It's that simple uh, all right! So oh um.