Hello, everyone welcome back to another market, open, live stream, so today we've got some jobs, data that came in uh. It's not the official jobs report yet so keep that in mind. This is the uh uh. It's sort of a private company that puts this together rather than the uh, then the government.

So it's not technically the official stuff that we like to use uh, but it is uh something that tends to give us like a little bit of a head start, uh or sort of like a heads up as to what kind of jobs data we might expect Over the next uh well, basically, friday morning, friday morning, is when we uh there. We go friday morning is when we'll get the actual government jobs data from the bureau of labor statistics and that's when we expect jobs to uh also come in quite low kind of like this adp report came in and that's because jen sackey over the white house Is already basically freaking out going ah crap looks like jobs are gon na come in low, which is not good uh and that's uh, mostly because of omicron is what's being blamed right now, uh for the jobs decrease. But let's take a quick look at the adp report, so you could actually see the report itself beyond just the headline uh. The the big thing obviously, is that the headline number did come in at oops: that's not the highlighter! There we go.

It came in at a 301 to the negative aside and i think the easiest way to see that is looking at the chart right here: total non-farm payroll. You see this just massive plummet here in jobs, which is really something that we haven't seen since uh. Well, job losses that we haven't seen since the beginning of the pandemic, and this is just really just kind of showing like oh okay. Well, like that's what happens during pandemics now, this this kind of goes both ways in terms of like well.

How does the market react to this? Well, on one hand, you have the market thinking okay. Well, does this mean we have less inflationary pressures potentially, or does this go in the opposite direction, where this just makes it more difficult again for supply chains, because, obviously we expect this to be a temporary issue because of omicron uh and what's kind of crazy to See too is that the the losses were really well dispersed across almost every type and sector of business. Look at small businesses lost 144k, medium businesses, 59k large businesses, 98k and then over. Here you, the only places you actually had job growth was in natural resources and mining of about four thousand and the professional slash technical services where you had a four thousand job game.

But look at this one right here: leisure and hospitality got smoked with 150 k down here and uh trade transportation utilities down 62k uh goods producing manufacturing down 21k here anyway, uh some larger declines here. So this is the oh finance actually went up too. Look at that finance went up about 1600, which is kind of a drop in the buck to everything. Anyway, they said the labor market recovery took a step back at the start of 2021, due to the effect of the omicron variant and its significant, the likely temporary impact to job growth.

This uh, the majority of industries, experienced job loss, making the most recent decline. Uh marking the most recent decline since december 2020, when that when there was a decline in december as well, we had the last coveted wave, but anyway we expect that, obviously to be transitory. The big question here is going to be on friday. How much of a move are we going to see in uh the unemployment uh pay, or, i shouldn't say the unemployment pay? When the employment report comes out, we're going to see how much uh wages are going up on a month over month basis and that's going to get annualized out and then folks are going to probably trade off that data either positively or negative, based on whatever ends Up happening with inflation now another thing that happened is we got uh opec who uh a lot of folks were were hoping.

They would release a crap ton, uh more barrels from their uh supply constraints from their their limited supply, but opec is uh this. This group organization of petroleum exporting countries uh from the middle east, uh and elsewhere that uh come to an agreement in terms of how much supply to actually release to the market. Obviously they make more money when oil is expensive, uh and so, rather than trading and oil's been skyrocketing right and so, rather than really hike the supply substantially to deal with the supply shortages and sort of the inflation that we're seeing on the side of oil. Opec decided opec plus came to the conclusion that they would only release an additional 400 000 barrels, which was less than expected, and if we look at what ended up happening to oil prices, we can see that oil prices pushed up again.

You can see here brent up 1.27 and uh uh. You know our wti crude over here up 1.5 natural gas up 11, though and uh. I wonder if this is a bug: jeez uh, but anyway, uh. That seems crazy.

The natural gas is all setting up this. Much so what we'll see when the market opens, and this refreshes more appropriately, but anyway, the the wild thing uh to say, with uh with oil, obviously, is that energy costs skyrocket when uh, when oil and natural gas, and that go up, which you did have a Very interesting kind of inflection in europe. In europe we got inflation data and, in my opinion, was actually good news. The uh, the eurozone inflation skyrocketed, but not not.

That's not the good news. Part consumer prices went up 5.1 percent and the expectation was 4.4 percent. So blew expectations out of the water, but once you took out energy, you actually had a slight tick to the downside, potentially because of a lack of omicron driven spending, and so this is going to be. This is going to make for a really really interesting cpi report uh next week, because if even if inflation comes in slightly low or lower than expected in america next friday, markets are going to have to sort of weigh well wait a minute, even if inflation comes In low, is it only low because of omicron in january and are we going to go back to higher inflation in february or worst case scenario? Let's say, inflation comes in elevated oops.

Let me pull up. I want to see what the expectations are. Let's say: uh inflation comes in elevated on uh a next friday, cpi release like well. If it comes in elevated during the omicron, what's gon na happen after right, so uh, there's gon na, be this really interesting kind of tug of war uh next week and we'll see what happens here, uh, okay, so cpi expectations uh! Do we have it? Yet? Let's see here no trying to get the forecast for cpi okay.

Here we go cpi the 10th february 10th uh. Oh, i think that's actually thursday uh that's interesting. Usually they did it on friday. Oh well, anyway.

Schedule for the 10th cpi month over month is expected to come in at 0.5, which is an annualized rate of about six percent and the uh. Oh wow uh, okay, oh that's interesting! The expectations for year over year are last month was seven percent and came in at seven percent right expectations year over year are seven point: three percent uh, that's wild. That is, that is wild, so uh we'll see what ends up happening, but that is a high expectation for america. Thank you, keith williams.

I appreciate your your very nice comment. Okay, so uh, you know a lot of by the way it's worth noting. A lot has been made about uh tom lee uh. Basically, this guy who's, always on cnbc, talking up how great the market is and by the dip on everything and - and i know i've always been a big fan of by the by the bip.

I've. Obviously, gotten concerned about what i believe will be a federal reserve over correction uh before before things get better, could always be wrong. It's just worth noting that tom lee all of last year was a bull. You know, including two months ago and he's like the santa claus rally will will dominate wall street.

It's this whole article about basically how we're going to the moon in december and december was a terrible month uh and so, but the difference is it. It pays to be a permabull because everybody loves a permabull uh and then i'm i'm very bullish. Long run uh like three four years out for for america, i'm a little more nervous for the next couple years, but we'll see how data comes in so uh. Let's see here, okay, so that was germany.

Another thing is a little bit of a transition, so we just got another survey out that we're seeing a little bit more of a transition to services rather than goods goods, including non-durable, such as food and clothing. Average 31 of personal consumption during the two years prior to the pandemic, that went up to 36 in march and april of 2021 yeah shortly uh before you were able to get your vaccine and that has been declining uh for two months now, we're down to about 34 in december uh waiting for those january numbers, but anyway uh seeing a little bit more of a shift to services which makes sense. You know people spending more services. But in my opinion, i i wonder uh if it's possible that people are spending more money in general uh, let's see here, okay, so then we've got okay.

We talked to opec. We obviously google is going to push the indices really well today, and we have that google stock split coming up. I still don't have clarity on exactly what date that stock splits expected to happen on, but there's talk that maybe google's stock split could help them actually enter the dow. Since the dow is a price weighted index, rather than a market cap rated index like the s p, 500, so it's quite quite a difference, but uh! That's that's interesting.

It is also leading folks to wonder: hey uh is this gon na, maybe convince uh amazon to? Finally, do a stock split, i mean twenty to one, it's incredible anyway, uh as of uh as of tuesday, google is only one of seven companies in the s p 500, that trades for more than a thousand dollars and google's by far the biggest. So it's quite quite interesting. The uh google is a phenomenal company uh, and it's one towards the end of last year that i was building up a larger position and uh, because i really. I still have this belief that once supply chain issues resolve themselves, companies are going to have to advertise their their ways out of uh out of inventory challenges uh now.

Obviously, i've made other bets but uh the supply chain issues. I really think are going to lead to eventually once the u-turn we don't know when they're going to u-turn, things could get worse before they get better, and certainly, if you look at like the starbucks earnings call, things are getting worse before they're getting better. So i'll talk about that in a moment, but uh you know once once we do have stock shelves and a lack of purchasing. I do expect advertising to really take off unless of course, at the same time we're in recession now paypal, i did go through paypal's earnings call and i have to say i've never seen like.

Oh the ceo just seemed depressed uh. It was. It was kind of a rough read, but uh they do mention that they they expect not to see supply chain or inflationary improvement until the back half of the year. They say this is kind of what we're getting reiterated from most companies that you're seeing this sort of back.

The second half of 2022 is really your. Your supply chain shift time frame uh. They are starting to also see - and i thought this was quite interesting - they're, starting to see a lack of spending or a weaker consumer amongst the lower income group uh, probably because of uh a lack of stimulus and the uh. The substantial amount of sort of labor call outs that we're seeing, especially amongst uh, lower income individuals as well uh and that's not surprising because generally in the service sector uh, especially like leisure hospitality, where we saw the biggest adp decline in jobs.

Uh. It's not surprising to see people spending less in that you know demographic if if they are taking more time off of work, for whatever reason, whether that's because uh you know of covid or not, for example, i was at i was at the airport uh, in los Angeles and so one of the people's like uh one of the people there she says uh yeah. You know i had actually it's weird. I talked to her like six months ago when they were still having all these employee shortages and i'm like hey.

You know we talked six months ago and it was going to vegas. Have your employee shortages gotten any better and she's like huh? Well they'd like to say they have, but no it's everybody's taking off whether they're, sick or not everybody's, taking their their two weeks off. For covid, i guess in california it's like you get two weeks off recovery which is kind of insane because omicron's, you know not not as severe but uh. It did seem like.

There were more people around, but uh yeah. You know we'll see omicron's kind of throwing a weird wrench in the gear. You know what happened last time we had these waves. Is you actually had inflation stall, but then um, but then the the variance made supply chain issues worse for the short term right eventually, eventually - and this is why you know i'm a long-term bull like you know three four years from now uh, eventually, what happens is We're going to have the most efficient companies in the world in america, even if that means we end up whether we go through a recession or we don't go through a recession doesn't matter.

I still believe we're on this track to a frugal decade where, where, where the the insane amount of spending we're seeing right now settles down, people either have less money either again because of recession or because things just slow down, and you don't have any money more Uh to just willy-nilly spend so things slow down. You go into sort of a more, maybe a more frugal style decade, but you have the most efficient companies that we've ever seen before in the world, and america is going to be the place to bet on. For that, in my opinion, it's just going to be a matter of what happens between now and then and uh. Well, that's that's! What we're looking for guidance on on the daily now google and amd, interestingly, both punted on on talking about inflation and supply chain issues.

Now, obviously, inflation supply chain issues, don't matter that much for google because they actually provide cloud services to help you manage supply chain disruptions, so google is a beneficiary of of supply chain disruptions, so uh you know. That's that's not a surprise to me that we would see some uh uh. You know some some punting on on uh just talking about how bad things are and instead they just focus on hey look. Our business is growing or we're doing great over here, and that's also pretty common.

This is something you have to be aware of when you're looking at earnings calls is like when things are bad, like it's starbucks, of course the ceo just wants to blame it on outside issues. No, it's not us. It's the supply chains right and then, when things are going good, the ceos are like. Oh, no, don't even talk to us about supply chains, we're doing great because we're a great company, it's it's such a freaking sales pitch uh, but anyway, so um paypal talking about buy now pay later, which i thought was interesting.

A big emphasis by the ceo and by now pay later, they call it the perfect example of a type of investment we are making to give shoppers and retailers more reasons to engage with paypal, whatever and uh. What else starbucks was just a complete disaster with the supply shortages? They didn't really at least from what i recall i'll, have to double check uh. They didn't really give us a time frame in terms of when they thought these inflation supply chain issues would get better and amd i'll. Tell you she refused uh the ceo refused to talk about the supply chain issues.

Every time she got asked about pricing power or supply chain issues, she would just say you know, demand is strong and we think we're going to meet our guidance for for 2022, which is well improved. I mean, i think their guidance went up like 10 or 15 percent from yesterday when we covered the earnings, uh and uh. It was really really incredible. Oh here speak of the devil.

What well, let's find out if there's any mention in that cpu and notebooks, i have to argue that notebooks you're, beginning to take a dramatic amount of share from really big nameplate companies. How why is that occur? Well, uh, look jim! I think it was a a great 2021, so we're very pleased with the results. You know we grew the company over 68 and you know we really grew in every business, so you know leading with the data center. I mean data center is a great market.

You and i have talked about that before uh, but yeah. We have made great progress in gaming. You know with um our you know, top game console uh customers as well as um in pcs and notebooks, and you know the key for us has been. You know really a you know: long-term vision on you know, building products and and really working closely with our customers and great platforms, so we're very excited about the growth.

Well, i want to talk about that last point. I'm glad you mentioned, because i know that you have historically uh historically deferred talking directly about a big competitor intel, but you do talk about the notion of relationships. Ask about inflation. Jim come on bro from reading through your conference, particularly this one.

It's whoever has the best long-term relationship with mega tech or with any of these pc companies. Now this wasn't always the case lisa. It was well we're taking all right, we'll check back in a sec to see if they actually talk about inflation, but anyway, that was one of the things about the call. Is she absolutely would not talk about pricing power because they're raising prices like crazy? Let me just quickly check the largest consumer companies or pc companies.

I think what has been really important for us. Is, you know, building uh, really a long-term uh. You know sort of traction around execution, so uh yeah see see when the companies do well on earnings. It's all about how great their execution is, it's all about how great they are at leading the business when they se when they suck at earnings.

It's everybody else's fault. It's it's biden's fault. You know uh, so so this is interesting here this. This comment, uh, vic fpv, says: fed can't raise rates drastically for inflation because of our debt.

Now slow growth world central banks are piling gold. Does this indicate a currency crisis on the way uh? So you know what's actually kind of interesting? Is we can here? Let's? Google, it together, so if you pull up the saint louis fred, uh interest payment percentage of gdp united states, so so anyway. What what this is is what percentage of our uh like? What? What interest are we paying as a percentage of gdp and we're actually at really low levels, to the point where we could probably raise what we pay like 2x, just to be where we were in the 90s? Yeah check take a look at this, so this is where we are right now at about 1.5 percent into like of our gdp going towards debt service, and we used to be at like three percent, so we could literally double what we're paying and just be at 90S levels like we could totally sustain more debt payments. Let's listen in if anything's changed here.

Priority is always invest in the business. You know, invest in r d, we're working on. You know the road map for the next such a salesperson. I love it.

Oh man, what you need to do to run a very strong business now i know you can't talk directly about what's going to happen when you uh finally get approved of silence, but there was some heartening news that you signed a deal with nokia, which tells me I've always wanted you in telco. If you can get into that side of telco fantastic all right, i don't think i'm going to get anything about inflation out of her, so whatever uh all right. So what do we got here? We got google a little bit off of its euphoria here in the pre-market. Uh looks like we were peaking around 30 62, which is kind of crazy, because yesterday, after the earnings call i'm like there's no way, this is not going over 3 000..

It went over three thousand in the pre-market here, uh, let's see if it could sustain the three thousand uh, but uh amd being up about eleven percent, not a surprise at all. It really deserved that uh. I have to say, after that earnings call when it was sitting at like six percent. I'm like this is ridiculous.

This should be a ten percent plus move uh and it is uh. Oh interesting, look at owlette up about 10 right here. I want to see if there's any news on owlette. Oh, let's been one of those kind of just like way.

It's it's such a great company and been waiting to for owlette to make a move and - and i specifically want to pay attention to small caps, because if we do get confirmation that we're sort of breaking above the bottom, then then small caps are gon na. Be very interesting, no see, there's no news, so it's probably just like uh social media and momentum. That's moving this we'll see if that actually sustains when we open, because a lot of these, these don't don't keep uh, keep it up when we open, but anyway, this is a really strong, open right here and it's really being led by google. I mean google is the reason for the season here.

Nine percent on google is absolutely insane and amd at 11. So it's no surprise that companies like trade desk and nvidia are going to do very well off. This keep in mind. I trade desk is actually, in my opinion, at a great price uh it it where's it and says: yeah 70 73, my gosh great hold on one.

Second, let's see xilinx catch up. Well, david. There's no question that you know the last uh 12 to 15 months in semiconductors has been all about um, you know securing supply. Here we go in the right long-term relationships and you know what um what we've been focused on is really not just the near term.

I mean obviously we're trying to get um. You know improvements in in supply each quarter, but really how do we build the trajectory from you know, 2022 through 2025, and so the um. The discussions with our supply chain partners across all aspects of the supply chain are really uh targeted at you know very ambitious growth goals. I'm more excited about xilinx.

I think their business has done very well. You've seen it in some of their numbers, and i think there's going to be lots of synergies as we come together in all aspects of the business, including supply chain, see she punts every time you see a remarkable job and what i'm really looking forward to is A much more in-depth discussion of what you've done at amd for our investment club on friday, you're, our special, oh, whatever jim, all right. So, let's go over here. Take a look at this paypal.

I can't see it because my head's in the way here it's worth wait here, we'll just sort it the other way. This makes me nervous because look it's it's easy to look at amd and google after a really strong earnings day and go. Oh my gosh everything's great, but look at a company like paypal, okay, they reduce their guidance 10 and their stock is down almost 20. That's crazy.

This is a massive company, uh and and to be down. I don't know if maybe it was just the like. The the ceo's lack of enthusiasm or something, but for a two sorry i may have accidentally pressed command w uh, my bad, but anyway, for for a 200 billion dollar company to to basically just drop 20. Like this, that's crazy uh i mean that's.

That's 40 billion dollars gone. I mean like that's. That's almost that's almost three robin hoods deleted from your market cap. You know it's wild uh, all right so anyway, uh square is obviously falling on this as well uh down down about uh, 6.4 percent.

A firm is down to 4.05. I mean this: it's mind-blowing how how the fintech is just getting destroyed over here, uh somebody. By the way i saw this uh this article, somebody's somebody in europe is creating a brokerage uh, and i personally i mean i've. I've looked at like investing in brokerage companies or what it takes for these little vc companies who are starting brokerage companies start starting.

They are extremely expensive. There's one guy in europe who is launching a brokerage with 250 programmers and spending 5 billion dollars, 5 billion holy crap. You know it's great, it's like wow. You know i feel like we take like the the trading and stuff for granted, but uh gee whiz uh.

Anyway, you know what i do think is really weird is look at this folks. Hippo shift backed all these guys are down about two percent today, so that makes me a little bit a little concerned not not like mega concern but well we're kind of. In my opinion, waiting for is this confirmation. I mean you do obviously you uh anytime.

I make a move. You know where to get my alerts, but um. What's really weird, is that we're seeing these sort of like arrival pops substantially? It's like all of a sudden everybody's interested in investing in a rival or like owlette's, been popping the last couple days, but blue apron, hippo and all these other ones are getting left behind and shift uh even sofi to some degree stuck in the mud at 13. Right, i mean so far could be because the other fintech moves here, but not all small caps are being treated equally here on the recovery uh, you know even robinhood, i mean sure it briefly went down to under 10, but i mean it's.

Fourteen dollars is still pretty terrible for robin hood uh anyway kind of interesting uh nicholas at 8. 29. Oh, that's, interesting! Anywho, uh, oh and tesla's down about a third here in pre-market! That's interesting! It was up about 1.7 at one point in uh in the after hours. I thought: well, don't let yourself get too confused by futures and after hours in pre-market trading, because the the volumes are so low and the problems is.

Problem is they've gotten even lower over the past few months, because less people are actively trading. Less people are actively in this market things to think about anyway. Okay, so we talked about opec, we talked about jobs. One thing we didn't talk about yet before the bell happens here in a minute: uh.

Well, two things: uh number one make sure to go to metkevin.com, ftxus to uh sign up for uh crypto trading uh. Yesterday we went uh, golfing and uh. The both of the people i went with were wearing ftx sweaters. We almost all were ftx sponsored, but the the actually.

The thing that i didn't talk about is that vladimir putin is suggesting uh, essentially that uh that there might be a way to to settle tensions uh, especially after the ukraine talked about how, if russia invades, it would be like an all-out war in europe, so so, Who knows if putin's settling down a little bit? Maybe that's a good sign uh, but no guarantees. You know sometimes uh things get uh spun a little bit so anywho, let's uh, let's get the bell we're five seconds away here we go, but what matters for people is that i did. I thought rigorous work here. I thought i did everything i could all right.

Well, you own it um and of course, if anybody owns paypal they're going to be in campaign today, there may be a larger takeaway call for the consumer. Yeah i'd say that's about 50 50 right, green red. 50. 50..

Okay, now now remember what happened yesterday yesterday, the first i don't know like 30 minutes of the trading day, were a little bit more on the red side, and then we rallied into the close, maybe we'll have that again uh by the way some some people are. Are suggesting that, oh, i shouldn't be happy when stocks go up, because personally, i'm i'm in cash or whatever i i think people forget that going into a recession is the worst economic thing that could happen. So anything we could do to prevent the trajectory of recession is, is the most optimistic, and if that means we get nice recoveries in markets, that's the best case scenario, in my opinion, so uh, you know trades aside, because long run matters more. We know that so uh i'll, let's sitting at about 11 48 here uh, oh wow - that is a weird sell-off here on amd amd, dropping about two percent.

Now it's possible that you're gon na see some red here on google and amd because of uh of of pre-market buyers who get reemed by institutions, usually when the market opens uh. This is why i prefer waiting for market open, but anyway uh arrival sitting out about three percent to the upside. I thought this was a little higher in primary yeah. It was definitely higher in pre-market, ran up to five dollars in pre-market.

Nano dimension got a ton of cash man, that's crazy, uh, nvidia, okay! This is basically the same crap. We saw yesterday where we started getting these. These pull backs and uh it didn't last. You know we got some red and we had a really nice u-turn really quickly, so hopefully, hopefully, hopefully it it ticks back up again and uh.

It's what we saw, let's here, let's go to yesterday, just for giggles, so we can see what we saw yesterday. Look at this yesterday we sold straight down for about the first 36 minutes. Basically, as soon as i stopped live streaming, the market just kept going up. So i guess i'm your best contrarian indicator just do the opposite, uh speaking of which, if you want alerts.

So that way, you know exactly what opposite thing to do: make sure to go to medkevin.com, join and uh and figure out exactly what you should not be doing. Apparently, obviously, i'm joking uh, but look at this 21 here on uh on paypal, uh, that's crazy! Uh 21.77: this is painful in fintech. I you know a place that i think - and i don't know that we're there yet. But if we keep getting this, when does square report, this is terrible.

This fintech space is getting destroyed square earnings. Let me find out when square earnings are uh, so maybe somebody else knows: oh feb, 24., oh gosh, still a while to go uh i mean you've got three weeks to go before you get potential good news out of out of square and what about a firm? Let's find out a firm earnings step: 10: okay, good okay, so you got eight days to get to a firm earnings and it looks like you've got a little bit of paint over here on rivian and, of course, piton can't keep it up. Sofa is getting stuck in the mud here as well. With this mess, yeah and uh looks like toast is, is kind of dancing along with with this space.

Here now, google and uh amd also still red candling, red bagger, red bagger uh t trade desk, giving me a little bit of an additional discount here with so what's what's going on, so spy seems stable, but what's keeping it stable because i'm seeing a lot of Red in fintech tesla down now about a percent lucid's down about a percent. It's that convictionless market uh, how about qqq? Yeah? Okay? So it's it's tech, that's rotating down again! Is it um? Huh? Okay? Here we go okay, a little bit of a rotation now in qqq again, let me see here ftx, so here's our ftx with our trading window for bt c. I do have a little bit uh. This is the one hour candlestick.

Let's go to the minute see if we're getting that similar u-turn, the qqq is kind of r right now, let's see if that could do the same thing we saw yesterday where we just have the morning sell-off uh, and then we start pushing again based on both The qqq and btc that appears to be what's happening right now, let's see if it can hold again. First few minutes, you get those red candles and then you go rotating back to the upside yeah. Look at that even a rival, starting trying to push back up here we go and getting those green candlesticks again here: wow owlette just halved, it's uh, its gains for the day from 11 to like five and a half percent. Let's see here what's at the bottom, it's basically fintech that's at the bottom here and unfortunately it keeps dropping right now, like the selling pressure on fintech is just disgusting, my gosh almost 23.

On paypal. I mean at some point like how how cheap can paypal get uh look at this. This is, i mean this company now is selling for may of 2020 levels. I mean look at it before the pandemic.

Paypal was selling for 124 dollars. Folks, it's at 135. Right now my gosh, let's do a fundamental analysis on paypal today my gosh uh yeah yeah, all right. So, let's see here all right there we go a little bit of green there on amd and google coming in now.

So some of that that first few minute pain there is evaporating, take a look at that trade desk, going right back to that that higher level and so is dave and buster's ooh dave buster's at 37.. Does that mean tesla's no longer down a percent? That's right! Tesla also pushing back up sitting at 926 right now arc neo, let's see here, let's see, go back to btc and draw a trendline on the daily chart from december 27th tonight, let's take a peek uh december 27th to now on the day chart. Let's try that so december 27th, right here with 43 7 line, that's crazy! We're at 40! Oh no december 27th was actually here. We go uh 40 49ish! Oh, oh! What you're saying is: uh uh a diagonal trendline you're, not talking about a uh, okay, okay! Okay! I understand i see what you're saying um i mean you could see it you're right, that's really interesting and it continues this trend.

It's also it's very similar to what we're seeing at tesla. Take a uh. Take a look at tesla on uh on the day or the hour. I think we did four hour yesterday very, very similar, let's see if we can break that that four hour right there if we could just get a full candlestick through this and break.

I think that's what we need at btc as well, both btc and tesla. They really need to break through these these channels here which hopefully we get very soon here. Okay paypal looks like maybe a little recovery. Now, let's go to a minute; no, no! It's just it seems like it.

Just slowed its fall a little bit uh and affirms uh a firm and square already recovering a bit how about what's matterport up to matterport down two percent? Again, my goodness and then you've got google over here at 9.23 and amd rotating back up okay. So so some of that excitement coming back here that should lift the indices here, uh just sort of that typical. First, few minutes sell down and right back to buy the dip. Oh yeah look at that s p up now to 456, which is quite substantially off of that support line where we were dragging around for a while.

I mean look at these supports over here. We really did a good job, not breaking past this, which is good. Is it possible? We can go back to all-time highs. That's the question and we've got a really nice trend reversal right now on this decline that we've been seeing and that's the hope see.

I had drawn this for my birthday, but we didn't get this for my birthday. Things just went down on my birthday uh, but hopefully we get some kind of uh pushback, so the original trend should bring us somewhere back to 500 by maybe the end of the month, if uh, if if we were to just go back to sort of all-time Highs we're not that far off. I think we're honestly only about five percent off all-time highs right now. I suppose that's worth looking at.

While we also look at some of the other news. That's going on. Let's take a peek here, uh! Oh yeah! That's the downside of the stop losses: yeah uh! What's with the selloffs that open triggered the stop losses on my options, yeah and that that can be really frustrating sorry that happened to you uh. What were we gon na? Do i don't remember what we're gon na do? Uh we were gon na go, oh right, finance, finance.google.com and let's just get the spy year to date.

Here, look at that we're only down four point: five: five percent year-to-date and if we go to all-time highs, yeah we're down well, basically, four point: five percent: that's crazy! We hit our all-time high on what jan fourth, basically, the the uh second trading day of the year first and second trading days, wow, hmm, all right! Well, that's gon na be really interesting, uh, especially going into the the uh going up against the fed. Although the fed's been the fed uh board members, some of them over the last weekend have been a little bit more optimistic that they don't that they don't want to like hike us to death. It's what's, but what's more important than the fed hiking is what actually ends up happening with supply chains, so eurozone inflation unexpectedly hits a record, but again we saw an inflection point down. We talked about this earlier.

We saw inflection point down once we took out the energy costs, which was actually a good thing. In my opinion, of course, they don't put that in the headline because they just want to fud. Uh stocks extend the biggest gains since 2022. Yes, nice bounce off bottom bitcoin's trend line from peak keeps pressure on token yup.

Okay, paypal joins growing list of pandemic boomed bus stocks. That's wild omicron, sub variant forecast to cause south africa infection surge wow. Are you serious look at this? Ah crap, let me sign into this really quick, stupid paywalls. You know if you're gon na pay for these subscriptions.

I think i've said this before probably have okay, i probably complain every time you they should at least leave you signed in gosh. It's so annoying all right. Let's see, if i get my login there, we go all right all right. What do we got here? Subvarian of omicron known as ba2, is spreading rapidly in south africa.

Oh, my gosh. It appears to be more transmissible than the original albuquerque. How could you get more transmissible than the original form of omicron, the discovery of which was announced by south africa and botswana in november? That was the original one right. Research show also shows that getting a mild infection with either of the two strains may not give a robust enough immune response to protect against the other omicron, no indication that the subvarian causes more severe disease.

Omicron wave of infections may end up like a camel. Okay, uh a wave with another hump. So far the strain has infected a significant number of people in seven of south africa's nine provinces. Really, let's see here all right: let's see, can we just isolate south africa? Already? Oh no uh! Let's get south africa in here! Okay, i saw that we're going way down over here.

Okay, let me go to new per day come on man. This is what we're worried about. It looks fine whatever come on bloomberg. Get it together would ya all right all right.

So what else? Let's see here bill gates, carbon capture, startup seaworld, makes 3.4 billion dollar takeover bid. Ooh afford to spend up to 20 billion reorganizing for shift to electric cool, and it's not much over here on bloom. Let's go look at the sticks briefly again, uh so spy. How are you doing why what's going on? Why is this spy being funny again? Carnival cruise line is 21 bucks.

It's kind of incredible how uh carnival's really been stuck in the mud over there at uh at around 21. yeah, a little bit more of a rotation debt. Look at that truck. This is just like unpredictable uh.

Maybe maybe that person's stop losses were a good thing because look trade desk uh it just just went from being up like what four percent to only being up a half of percent uh google up eight six amd, so we had a little bit more red enter The market here yeah - oh my gosh, paypal's down almost 25 folks, realize, like back in the good old days. Okay, the good old days where, like when stocks just went up a little bit every year, you know like 2010 to uh. You know like 20. The end of 2018, it was just like coast and if you made like five or six percent on your stocks, it was good per year.

Well, paypal just lost 25 in 24 hours. That's insane! I mean that's like. If you put a hundred dollars in tomorrow, you have 75 that sucks holy crap look at this matterport and nine dollar. Why? What happened? Let me, let me see what the suits are saying.

Oh my gosh. Let's see here uh what is it? Let's see here, tech tech bulls have big reasons to be excited today, because of google sure. I am worried that the google stuff is just going to be like this temporary bout of euphoria and speculation. Mostly, speculation is probably the most dangerous right now uh, because i think there is going to be a lot of like oh well.

Well, apple and tesla did really well with their stock split and so did nvidia. So google must as well maybe not we'll see. I mean their earnings were sick. They don't actually see a reason for this.

Somebody here by the way in the comments says spacex was uh. Spacex launch was delayed because a carnival ship is on the way. That's interesting, hmm, i mean other than the jobs data. You know the job that the only thing i could imagine is that the jobs data could potentially be creating some form of fears over uh, maybe stagflation, which, which would be the worst.

Oh yeah. A spacex launch was just scrubbed by an errant cruise ships wow anyway. Uh huh, that's the only thing i could imagine okay, paypal kind of rotating again right now, which is good to the upside. Let me see here if we're getting those greens on anything else, no google's being funny here as well now amd is, is giving this up.

It's giving it up. Why, though, like things were things were going so nicely on this recovery and there doesn't seem to be a particular reason other than the existing fears which have been there. It could just be that same kind of temporary morning, madness that we saw yesterday uh stagflation, i think, are serious concerns. I see this is the madness we had yesterday right.

We dropped until about 706 and uh, and then we really took off and then rallied into the close that was yesterday uh and we rallied into the close on monday and on um a friday as well. So we've had a good three days friday, monday tuesday. We're great but uh, yeah there's the stagflation concerns like i think uh. If anything, there's fear that consumers towards the end of the year stop spending as much money and here's what happens if people stop if people spend less money in the fourth quarter of this year for like the christmas season as they spent in the fourth quarter of 2021, well, then, you have negative gdp.

Potentially if people spend less on gas, you know goods and services uh, and that would be terrible, because if we had a negative gdp quarter combined with high inflation, people are going to freak. I hope that doesn't happen, because that that means there's a potential of heading towards recession right because then it only takes one more negative quarter and you're in a paper recession anyway. Uh that that's the only thing that i could take away from from uh today's markets because of the adp report, but uh, you know what what is this doing? Oh, let me get rid of this. There we go uh but other than that, and i don't see uh super drama.

Let's look at uh, let's look at etsy for a second: let's go explore some some stocks here, so here's etsy at 144.. It's etsy hit a bottom around 136. worth noting folks. If you are buying the dip right now, uh etsy's very close to to its bottom, you know so so if you're, like, ah okay, you know i i i want to keep buying the dip, but some things have already started running etsy's, not that far off of Its recent bottom at 136.

and uh - we you know in may of 2021, we hit 152.. So i mean you could get better returns than somebody who invested in may of 2022, but by buying right now, basically, which is kind of wild to think about. Cloudflare just fell under a hundred again. This is the most bizarre market.

Ever i have to say: okay is: are we? Are we good yet a little bit a little bit? Okay, good spy! Coming back again, a little bit tesla uh tesla back to that one percent. To the downside i mean not we're not seeing like huge drawdowns which, which is worth noting, like, for example, end phase 140. You know it's nicely off the 113. uh, not bad redfin's! Really, sticking to that 30 bucks, uh paypal, sticking to that 25 right now, maybe is it? Is it finding a floor at 130? I don't know the last company.

We were wondering if it was finding a floor at 130 was docusign, oh, but then again look it's at 123 right now! Oh my gosh! It went down to 108. Last week, coinbase 191 uh hit a floor of about 162 uh lemonade hit 26 at 33. square's. Almost down a full 10 today, yeah paypal's paypal's struggling upstart uh, keep in mind.

Oh wow. Look at that bounce on upstart uh. One of the things to keep in mind about upstart is it's it's very trader and momentum, heavy uh, and that's that's how it ran to like this crazy, 400 dollar figure. Okay, all right, let me see what other headlines might be coming through.

I sound like a minecraft villager, hmm, you know. Personally, i never got into minecraft. I love i love games, but minecraft's been a tough one. Fast money takes advantage within market to widen yield curve.

Let's look at the yield curve attend to so tend to yield curve line. Chart okay, it's actually started going up again a little bit. Let me just look in the last three days, which is good you. You want the curve to spread a little bit uh.

It looks like it actually spread. Today we ran from about a low last week of about 57 to 60 to about 62. Now the more the yield curve actually stays up. The more the federal reserve is encouraged to raise rates.

They've specifically said they do not want the yield curve to flatten, which means the spread goes towards zero, and then the inflation expectations are still stable five year, for example at 2.88 uh - and we really haven't seen a surge in that. So so that's good. All right. Wow, come on paypal.

25.3. Now squares coming back a little bit a far, so that's gilead! Well, a firm came back a little right. Yeah yeah firm came back a little bit so far, trying so gosh anything just in finance. Right now, lending club, upstart uh getting whacked see the tough part here on the on the small caps shifts still getting whacked mata port's still getting hit, although matterport's recovering a little bit intraday right now, which is good arc's down about 2.7 tesla tesla's down about about One we're weird kind of start to the day here, although very similar to what we saw yesterday, especially if we end up rallying into the close and then, if that happens, then it just goes to show that maybe it's time to to you know to buy the Dip when you get those morning moves uh that that's kind of an interesting thing to to consider.

Uh steve here says: where did the majority of stimulus go asset purchases? We know that rent slash housing, inflation tends to lag reality. That's true. We will start to see this have more of an impact than inflation going forward. That is true now whether the overall number will end up going up, uh or down will be very interesting.

Oh who is does matterport report today. Let's see mtt mather port if they miss uh and then they fall to some some of the lower levels and what we've seen there could be an interesting buying up there uh they do report today. Ah, okay, we'll definitely be covering matterport. I love matterport, but keep in mind they're, going through a transition from product as the primary uh revenue source to service as a primary revenue source.

That's a big difference, easy to forget that all right, oh my gosh, how does paypal keep going down like hold on? There's got ta be like let's look at the forward expectations here on uh paypal. Let me get some numbers for you and then i'll do that fib retracement you're talking about on the spy okay, so for paypal. If we go out to paypal's trash, that's why you know people always say that every time a comp, a stock goes down, people say the company's just trash. You know it is expected to grow at about 18 per year through 2026, potentially even more.

I don't think you could poop on them that badly, i mean it's. A 132 dollar company, it's uh! It's it's eps right now is for 2021 is what's 16, so 132 divided by 16. That's uh eight times! Is that right? Oh! No! No! Sorry! I read the wrong number, my bad, no yeah that didn't make sense uh. That was, i read the margin percent number, my bad.

No, no, no eps was 350 expected to maybe be five dollars next year. Ah, okay, that's better 132 divided by 350. It's about 37 times, okay, yeah. I mean that and that's present you go out to say 2025, where you get a nine dollar 131 divided by nine you're trading for about 14.5 times earnings which is kind of what google trades for yeah, but like uh, like somebody else in the comments here says: Netflix had the same issue: netflix was interesting because there they got really cheap there for a moment as well when they were like 350..

I mean they've exploded about 20 since then, but uh yeah. They were trading for about 30 times 2021 and also about 15 times. Uh 2025, maybe even a little less closer to like 12 times 20 25, which is right there with that apple or with the um, with the google and uh where, where paypal sits now, so it's almost like you're getting that that compression to that area. That would be an interesting analysis.

I might do that. Maybe we'll make a video on that, but seeing if there's like this, this uh valuation compression target that these things are running down to uh. Maybe if you don't mind, let's list some ticker symbols. If you don't mind of some of these larger companies that uh maybe you're having this this valuation compression to to like uh, you know attend 2025 or something like that, and then i can do some research and report back february to 2022.

So i'm going to call it valuation compression which we've been talking about since the end of november, but anyway paypal netflix, google was one of them: oh adobe, yeah and nvidia. Absolutely yeah, that's a good one adobe, and these are phenomenal companies. Honestly, amazon uh, i'm gon na not do upstart upstart would be a little bit more with the fintech bucket, although what i might do is do a fintech bucket, because it's getting ridiculous. You know like an m1 finance style pie, not not gon na buy like amd right.

You know right now: um amd's, just killing it coins, probably kind of belongs in that bucket and phase is a little more expensive than those big guys. It's almost like those. The software companies roblox ooh yeah, okay, somebody wants to know what's valuation compression it's basically, if you value companies at uh, oh, like i'll, pay up to 20 times 20 25 earnings for google, then then you might have a certain price, but if the market says no, Now we're only willing to pay 15 times earnings. Well then that would be a reduction of uh, 25 right and uh, and then price could come down 25.

Unless, of course, earnings went up, you know, eps went up, earnings per share, went up and then that that could kind of offset some of that. Okay, a little bit of a u-turn happening right now in fintech, a little bit of u-turn, ooh s box, yeah, all right thanks for those! So, look at that square paypal and sophi hitting a little bit potentially of of a floor here getting a little bit of of green coming in now. I don't know if this is going to last, but it does look like here right at the seven o'clock hour on time. We're getting a little bit of that green rotation.

Again, ea is moving up, has has been moving up since the open, nvidia moving up trade desk 173 robinhood 0.47 and phase 0.36 yeah. These have been moving up nicely tesla's trying to recover as well cloudflare, 0.9, corsair, 1.63. Ah interesting, still: okay, yeah it's about 3.6. To the downside shift technology, this just again reiterates the small caps.

It's just so so risky right now, hmm a firm sticking around that five percent yeah. I don't know if paypal is paypal gon na keep it gon na be able to to stick above uh there. We go okay, 24.9, we'll see where it goes anyway. Uh.

Let's go look at the spy. Let's see here, spy pumping yeah trying to get back to where we were earlier. Let's go look at the spy on the day chart here all right. So let's do.

Let's throw in a fibby okey-dokey, then let's go draw a little bit of the sibby uh. Do i want to go wick to wick? Let me do it on the four hour yeah, that's going to give us a little bit of a better. Tell hmm! If we go all the way to the ah yeah, look at that, that's almost where you're playing the game look at that. We draw the fib uh down from our peak to to our low, which is usually we're going to do.

But then it just depends. If you want to pick the the wick or the uh, the candle, it kind of is like we're bouncing off of the uh. The 457 line here almost like we bounced off 450 for a little bit, almost kind of like we bounced off 443 for a bit and then, of course, we were bobbing over here in the 430s, which we spent a lot of time in. That's not a bad uh retracement here and we've had a nice retrace already.

I mean we're we're 60 back to all-time highs here, uh from from these lows on the spy, not bad big question, though, is: are we gon na keep uh? Potentially this rally going for the rest of the day and so we'll see certainly being propped up by google. I mean no doubt about that. We'll see how long the enthusiasm can last on google uh amd here doing quite well, and paypal is trying to recover matterport earnings today will be interesting anyway. Okay, well, hopefully uh.

Hopefully, paypal comes off of this.