Hey everyone. Jerome Powell will be speaking at this event in Sweden it is supposed to. Uh, well, this stream just began about a minute ago and this is just an individual moderator here giving introductions and we're not exactly sure what order uh, the individuals will be speaking in. You've kind of got the list here of: Claudia Mervin uh, Jerome Powell and Ken rogroth.

Uh, so I'm not sure if that's the order, but we'll find out. Uh, obviously everybody is pretty curious to see what uh Jerome Powell has to say. So uh, we'll listen in and see if we've got any kind of indications on a schedule here. stationary episodes, and recurring financial crisis and how to Grapple with those issues, and Central Bank Independence and the mandates are institutions that are directed at meeting those challenges.

So as Beatrice reminded us say in this morning in the 1990s, there was a wave of institutional reforms in high income economies when they adopted inflation targeting and were backed up by more legal legislated Independence So This concerns The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Canada Um, you know something. Uh, what? all this individual's sort of doing his intro here. Something I was thinking about was how interesting that we've had almost 40 Years of uh, a deflationary trend and concerns that oh no, what if no amount of money printing will ever be able to cause inflation? Well, good news, we're still able to cause inflation by printing money. Uh yeah.

and and the reason that became such a concern is because of uh, you know you look at countries like Japan that uh, that print money and they don't cause inflation? That's incredible. How much did these concerns reflect? specific challenges of the 70s and 80s or more Germane issues? All right power. Then we saw a downturn of inflation. not too many that look like a major success, tolerable losses of output and employment.

So the main policy challenges in the next few decades were instead to be about financial crises, how to recuperate from the great Financial crisis, and how to Stave off new ones. Not least, at the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic. so we got to see new Financial Regulation QE unconventional Central Bank intervention and policy rates at record lows for a long time. So second question for the panel then is which new concerns were raised by the events and challenges in the 2000s and the 2000 teens in handling financial crisis and deflationary pressures.

I Mean in particular, do these challenges suggest new trade-offs for example, between monetary and fiscal policy or between present macroeconomic outcomes and future Financial stability. If we look at today superficially, the situation looks like 70s 80s Redux with major Supply shocks and emerging inflation inertia. So this brings us I guess to the most important and the bottom line question given the concerns behind the 1990s reform and the challenges in the next few decades, should we rethink Bank Central Bank Independence and Central Bank mandates that is, other good ideas or even concrete concrete proposals for new reforms. Or Central Banking rules.

Okay, so finally, the plan for the session. So we'll spend the next 20 minutes on initial remarks by each panelist, Then we'll have a discussion within the panel around these initial remarks for maybe another 15 minutes, and after that, we'll turn to a round of q a involving the audience. So think about questions and please think about succinct questions rather than statements beforehand, and really try to relate them to the three major Uh questions that I outlined. And in the last five minutes, panelists will be able to make some final remarks.

Okay, so now let's go to the initial remarks at most five minutes for for each of you. I'm sure these remarks will span many aspects of the broad panel theme, but by agreement, each panelist will put more emphasis on one of the three main questions that I outlined. So Ken and Mervin will touch on question number one, a Claudian question number two, and Jay on question three. So without further, Ado please can rock off.

Oh well. First of all, thank you very much to the organizers to the Rex Bank for inviting me to speak. um I think you've heard so many remarks about Stefan I can just I'm actually going to pull down here for a second. It looks like uh, the Federal Reserve just released a drone Paul's speech.

They usually do that they post a screenshot of of what he's going to say uh on their website I have all my screenshot. It's just basically whatever he's going to say is on their website. So uh, let's just go ahead and take a peek at that really quick. So I have it as uh as a PDF so we'll go ahead and grab that I'm not sure many of us care, but correct me if I'm wrong in the comments about the other individual speakers.

Um, I think we're all here for Jpap. So this is a J-pal speech. So I will address three main points: First Fed Monetary policy Independence is important and broadly supported institutional Arrangement that has served the American public well. Second, the FED Okay, well, I mean that's kind of important.

Second, the FED must continuously earn independence by using our tools to achieve our assigned goals of: Max employment's price stability, price transparency to facilitate the understanding, uh, and effective oversight by the public and their elected representatives of Congress. So far, this kind of just sounds like how central banks fit into the world. Uh, not so much of an economic discussion. Third, we should stick to our knitting and not wander off to pursue to pursue perceived social benefits that are not tightly linked to our statutory goals.

Okay, this is actually really interesting because these social benefits, uh, a lot. The FED has come under a lot of pressure for pushing ESG benefits. Uh, uh. You know, like uh, uh yeah, an environmental concerns or or whatever.

Basically, they've been getting wrapped up in political issues before Uh 2020, and and before the pandemic. The first point for the case of monetary policy Independence lies in the benefits of insulating monetary policy decisions to help from short-term political considerations. Uh, again. Central Bank Independence Here, price stabilities.

The Bedrock of a healthy economy provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time. But but restoring price stability when inflation is high can require some measures that are not popular in the short term. Yeah, No kidding. As we raise interest rates to slow the economy, the direct absence of political control over our decisions allows us to take those necessary measures without considering short-term political factors.

I Believe these benefits of independent monetary policy in the U.S context are well understood and broadly accepted. Okay, some footnotes there on Research In A well-functioning Democracy Important public policy decisions should be made in almost all cases by the elected branch of government. Grants of Independence to agency. These should be exceedingly rare.

explicit, tightly circumscribed, and limited to those issues that clearly warrant protection from short-term political consideration. A lot of this so far, just about independence from political pressures like Donald Trump you're fired if I'm not gonna if you don't do this. That was pretty blunt. When Independence comes with or with Independence comes the responsibility to provide transparency that enables effective oversight by Congress, which in turn supports the Uh Fed's Democratic legitimacy.

At the FED, We treat this as an active, not passive responsibility and over the past several decades we have steadily broadened our efforts to provide meaningful transparency. About the basis for this, focused on achieving statutory mandate and transparency. Then we talk about resisting the Temptation on social issues. Not that they aren't important, but in the area of banking regulation, the FED has to degree of Independence Independence year helps ensure the public can be confident if our supervisory decisions not influenced by political decisions including banking supervision, banking supervision to the perceived risks associated with climate change see there it is is appropriate rise.

Some analysts ask whether it's appropriate to include that addressing climate change seems likely to require policies that would have significant distributional and other effects on companies. Industries and Nations decisions about policies to directly address climate change should be made by the elected branches of government. So he's really using this as an opportunity to say hey, don't don't push your climate agenda on me, We are not and will not be a climate policy maker. Wow, that's it.

Okay, well so Jerome Powell's speech today I Hate to say it, but it's kind of boring. Uh, it? uh, it is basically him saying hey, we want to be an independent uh organization and we don't want to, uh, get into your politics uh, especially political uh, debates regarding climate change. No actual um, what would you say Um, economic outlook here? No, no commentary on really anything which was really actually interesting About that is it looks like when that speech came out, the market actually started going up. Yeah, that's fascinating.

Look at this. so I think a lot of folks like the market was real. It was negative this morning, right? The market was down this morning. and uh, as soon as the market realized that Jerome Powell wasn't here to actually hurt anyone when the speech came out at about 603-ish right around here, markets just started moving up.

and so while the NASDAQ isn't quite positive, it's certainly up from where it was leading into this meeting. 268 was where we were kind of leading into the meeting. Yeah, you've got Tesla over here. Tesla really seems to like that Jerome Powell had nothing to say today and uh, even open doors up four percent? Let's take a peek over here.

scroll around. let's see here we go. Uh, pre-market So yeah, okay. I mean this is not I mean Bed Bath and Beyond up a first nine percent.

Again, it's nonsense, but okay. uh. Arcimoto sound three Google's down two percent at Google Wow, Goodness gracious. Yeah, you know I found uh Bloomberg had some pieces yesterday railing on Advertising which I think is a little interesting I wonder if trade desk is getting hit by that as well? Open Door up four percent.

but it does seem like again, a lot of this movement right after the Drone policy. That's not it. right after the Drone Powell speech was published. uh, it's not loading Trade Desk anyway.

All right. So I don't know that, uh, that there's really anything to cover uh on Powell other than than uh, basically suggesting that his speech was boring. So uh, oh, did Nick just say something in the Wall Street Journal we'll go look at that. sure after you do it.

So that was, uh, that was nothing. All right. Okay, that computer has lost its connection. Give me a second, let me just check here.

All right, let's see what Nikki T had to say Nick Yeah, we got some crazy storms out here in California All right, slowing everything down. Okay, here we go. Ken Roger off on Central Bank Independence Turkey has changed has changed Central Bankers the way Henry VII changes wives and you can see the results here and then shows basically how bad inflation is. Yeah, I mean turkey Turkey just had like a 14 drop in inflation all the way down to like a beautiful 64 percent.

so that's that's a good one. Uh, anyway, yeah, this is. this is a little bit of a nothing. Burger So uh, thank you so much for being here and uh I'll go back to making some videos.

Thanks for being here. sorry Jerome Powell Was boring today and uh, we'll see in the next one.