Hey everyone welcome back to another market, open, live stream well well! Well, we've got ourselves a beat on uh gdp expectations, which is uh awesome. Uh gdp came in stronger than expected, which this reiterates uh, something that i've really believed about the united states, which is that we are going to continue to have a very strong economy. We're coming off such massive. Such massive gdp numbers coming out of the pandemic, but that doesn't necessarily mean the stock market has to go straight up now.

Fortunately, today things are green, uh or at least starting to look great, but it is really quite interesting because uh, you know folks are looking towards emerging markets, uh towards china or other countries for uh for for stock opportunities and growth opportunities, and i regularly think to Myself, ah yeah, i don't know that you need to bet against america. I think we're gon na be the strongest econ, and these gdp numbers really show it coming in uh. You know, with a with with a 6.9 percent return on an annual basis, uh and uh. That's pretty incredible: for a full year we were up 5.7, which means we were growing more in the recent uh period than than the full year, which of course makes sense, uh, but anyway, really incredible uh.

So super happy about that. Again, though, gdp does not necessarily have to align with the stock market, so is the pain over in the stock market. Well, this is where things go. A little bit different see a very strong gdp, actually does the opposite for us for the stock market, because it signals more to jay pal that he is right, oh, which guys uh, that and by signaling that he is right that the economy is doing just fine.

That the jobs market is doing just fine. He can continue with his right with his rate hikes and uh. There's something happened yesterday that actually made me a little bit surprised that we ended up even having a futures green right now but hold on one second there. We go and what happened yesterday was uh.

We actually had a a shift in bond market pricing, and the bond market is now suggesting uh that the market is beginning to price in five rate increases instead of four, like initially the market had priced in three rate hikes, then the market had priced in uh. Four rate hikes and now we're pricing in five rate hikes, which sort of begs the question. Could it be that if we price in five rate hikes that eventually when the federal reserve starts hiking, and then they don't hike a full five that maybe we could get back to some sort of actual excitement, rather than the consistent sort of pain that we've been Seeing in the markets now uh, the good news is uh. I i as much as in the very short term.

I am nervous about uh call options, i'm personally sticking with my belief that i'm gon na see two and three baggers as a trade uh in small caps before i'm gon na see two and three baggers in you know: apple amazon, google, uh tesla, like you know What is our expectation? Maybe google goes from 2560 to 2600 back to 3000. Right apple goes back to what 180, maybe it kills it on earnings, despite supply chain issues, goes up to 190, let's just say as an example uh tesla. Maybe we can get back to that 1200 number, which is great. I mean i had a lot of money in tesla, see tesla uh peak to where we are now.

If you think about it was kind of an insane swing, just tesla alone, 14 and 10 for no 14 or 15 in tesla at the peak, you might have been as much as 15. uh so and we went from what 1260 to where we are now. Like 960., so the new price divided by the old price, let's do 12.50 uh. Oh yeah, that's 23! That's crazy! Just to think about the swing in hindsight that alone of one stock is three and a half mil that's insane uh but anyway uh.

So let's go ahead and take a look and see what's going on in our pre-market here and uh yeah, so good news on on gdp, we will um keep watching, obviously the the inflation story, because that's that's the biggest one uh, that's hitting everything i mean, even Mcdonald's is like we are we're getting screwed here. With inflation and rising prices, i mean their op x. Costs went up like 14 or 15 in a quarter. That's insane that is, that is an insane quarterly increase in in costs, uh and and uh everybody's feeling.

It so everybody's just looking for the top now at this point, we're so used to the supply chain issues. Actually, you know getting worse now we're just looking for, like where's where's, the inflection point, which is exactly what j-pal is looking for as well, and that's why the market ended up bred yesterday. So when you know in case you, you know, you didn't pay attention to the fed or you paid attention the fed, but but maybe missed the most important part. In my opinion, the most important part was j-pal saying things are getting worse with inflation and supply chains.

Not better, i mean that was the that was the oh screen froze uh when it freezes like that. Can you still hear me now? That's uh, that's funny. If i tap away from the little uh the little rolling thingy here it uh it does. That sometimes says my bad uh high quality apple products.

You know yeah yeah, all in on apple. What look i love apple? I made a lot of money with apple uh. I i can't i can't poop on them. You know so all right.

Let's hop on over to these futures, so we got uh dow jones expected to open here of about half of a percent smp 0.81 nasdaq. 1.02 oil. Uh. Oh, is that wti at 88..

Oh, my gosh! It is holy. Smokes look at that. Uh wti is at 88, but but brent is almost at 91.. It's basically, you know on the way to 100..

That's gon na do great for like bp and uh uh, you know all these uh uh oil plays. Let's say i wonder how bp's been doing. Let's take a look: british petroleum, uh, oh it's just been killing it see. That's look at that folks! That's that was the play for the beginning of the year uh.

Let me hold on a second. Let me zoom out here for a sec, but then again, let's see here commodity prices so volatile, but that would have been the trade let's see here and it might keep going if oil goes to a hundred. But there's so many people talking about oil going to a hundred, it's almost become like. Oh yeah, oil is going to uh, it's almost like bitcoin's going to 100k.

You know it's almost like that, but anyway, yeah take a look at this uh 15 year-to-date. Investing in bp uh, if you go back a month, 16, 6 months 30, one year 38 over the past year wow, it does look like. I wonder i wonder who outperformed in 2021, though um compared to everybody's, always so benchmark sensitive, but then again that's exactly what we're doing here. Uh, let's see compared to very interested the smp and let's get a little year chart in here.

Oh look at that teeter-totter here with the s p is very interesting. I mean you would have had a less volatile ride by far uh in the s p. That's incredible all right! So uh yeah, okay, let's go ahead and take a peek at some individuals here and then we'll see. If there's any other news beyond the gdp data, i don't know there will be uh uh over for for broad market data.

I went so much so much yesterday from the fed uh today's gon na be probably a little bit more company specific, so we'll see all right. What do we got here? We got ca technologies, hardware, software, um hardware for uh, hard disk drives uh and uh other things, nine point: six: six percent jivo five point six one! This is good. I i and it's mostly good, because i wan na see that movement in smalls and that's obviously the bet that i'm placing is that eventually we're gon na see those big moves in smalls but yeah right now. If i soar, let's see by smalls and we've got to look right here at the pre-market - does look like almost all of them are green here.

Well, then, again, the entire market might just be green yeah. Do we even have red? Let's, let's just go to what's red, she whiz yeah, okay, but i mean look at this half of a page of red, that's nothing uh, ah yeah yeah and again it's just like square. Why 111 dollars just getting over and over again beat down? Look at that! This beautiful channel over here and just a complete, beat down to 102 on square. I mean square is well it's 111 right now, but uh you know square is at summer of 2020 levels.

That's insane! That's wild! You know before the pandemic it was at 86. Dollars. Is within reach of pre-pandemic pricing, wow uh, how about netflix, how's uh how's, this one doing relative, so netflix all the way down here at 351, moving up because bill ackman disclosed that he's been loading the boat on it zoom back a little bit here. This is here's the pandemic and yeah wow netflix is is pretty much at the pandemic, brought it down to march of 2020 right here.

Look at that brought it down to 293 for netflix. You have almost eradicated your entire opinion. It's almost like the pandemic, never happened. How insane is that for netflix, and i mean that just i'm just thinking about the the user growth they've had since the pandemic, i mean that's incredible, absolutely incredible! All right, uh, so intel down 3.6 uh on earnings.

Yesterday, um pre-market here again, uh gevo, tmc luminar, hey, threw a bunch into this yesterday, uh as as one of my small cap plays along with along with shift. I look. I i just really hope uh that these and they realize it's opium, but uh. A lot of these small guys, i mean look at this two dollars.

I mean what, in my opinion, what a steal, what a freaking steal uh for for a company like this now the the car shortages, in my opinion, have been a big reason for a lot of this, but i mean to go from a you know: seven to Nine dollar company to to a buck wild uh a buck. Eighty is as low as it fell. Uh. Okay, let me go see what the suits are saying.

There was, let me go into uh all right, the treasury market here and see what's happening here and then we'll go look in the back and because what i want to see is the yield curve right now and how it changed after yesterday's drama with the fed, Because we know that yield spiked a lot uh during the meeting. So let me look at that. We're gon na look at 10 year break evens. Actually you know what? Let's look at the five? It's a little bit more sensitive for inflation.

There we go all right. Five year break even i'll pull this up here, shhh! No, that's insane! No wow! After yesterday, no movement in inflation expectations. That's insane i'll! Show you this. I can't believe that there you go.

I mean it's, that's it! This! That's a good thing! You know shout out to bloomberg here for the chart, but that is great uh inflation expectations right right here, the difference between the uh uh, the the you know, tips for the five-year and the five-year treasury and uh. When i mean essentially the spread maintained the same. The easiest way to read this is, as the line goes up. You end up with uh uh, with more inflation expectations for the market.

That's wild all right! Well, that's crazy! Uh! I mean that that is a good long-term thing that the market's not pricing in even more inflation. It's mind-blowing uh service. Now i guess, reported really well, let's take a peek at them here service. Now let me get some details on them uh, so they do advertising.

It's like a digital advertising platform uh, but it's not the only thing that they do they it's like customer workflows and i don't know they did i've never invested in them. I don't know that much about them. I don't even know if advertising is the right way to describe them, but i want to see what's uh what what their earnings were like service. Now there we go servicenow.

Okay, so servicenow price target raised keeps uh. Okay, so who raised them? Capital raises them. Jpm upgrades them on software fundamentals servicenow surges 11, following upgrade and solid q4 results price target raised by morgan stanley to 810. uh.

Oh yeah, a lot of bumps here, oppenheimer bum, dum, gee whiz. That's awesome! That's a good good beat. I do wonder if uh how their forecasts were all together, they, okay here this is probably a better way to put it. Thank you for this.

Now they are a customer support. Oh i i bet you uh, okay. That might be why i'm confused in terms of exactly what they do - uh, maybe advertising companies use them, but anyway, this person says i i think, gives a perfect summary here. They are a customer support and ticketing tool used by organizations to manage ticket and incident response tickets, so that sounds a whole lot more.

Like uh zendesk, we use servicenow my job in big banks, uh market market, big banks, market tech for ticketing and compliance. Oh, i got it, that's a good way to put it. That's incredible! Okay, so see what let's see what the suits are saying otherwise about our market today, because we're going green but uh, i always wonder i mean it's gon na be another uh, another uh fake out rally who knows signs of selling exhaustion popping up everywhere. Let's take a look at this after four painful weeks for u.s stocks, signals that perk up around bottoms are starting to appear uh.

We had the opposite signals. Uh i mean is as recently as as tuesday, where uh, where this is. Why sometimes i take this with a grain of salt where uh you know there are reports that, oh, my gosh, we haven't seen moves like this since uh uh uh since the session essentially recession, eras, uh, nasdaq, oh yeah, i'm talking about nasdaq! Okay! Here, take a look at the nasdaq 100, where the share of stocks in correction has reached a point. That's almost always preceded a turnaround.

Futures contracts tied to the vix, where the cost of near-term protection sits in the top three percentile of readings, going back to 2009. Relative to longer dated hedges equity exposure among computer-driven funds is in the bottom quintile of historical observation. The level of wipeout warrants at least a short-term trading bounce uh. But then, then, literally right after that, like okay, why why is it that we have uh? You know media does this to us, so on one hand, they're like oh, look, here's a potential bottom signal and then the very next line or a paragraph is to state the obvious.

None of this means the stock market won't keep declining anxiety about the pace at which the federal reserve will raise rates is soaring, quarterly results are coming in mixed at best, and geopolitical tensions remain a wild card. The rut has wiped out more than four trillion dollars of value in s p. 500. Companies.

I mean look anybody unless you got oil pretty much anybody who's been investing uh since uh, since at least november is is down off. Their highs off november november was was ridiculous. How high we went uh in a good way. I mean it was phenomenal uh, there are some wonderful profits to be taken, the problem is, and we i think everybody can can sometimes have.

These issues is at the top of the market. It's tough to sometimes take profits. I did i wish i took more. You know i look back to november, i'm like oh okay, you know so occasionally doing the well closing call options helps but doing the little shaves at the top.

Like, oh okay, i'm gon na i'll do uh. You know fifteen percent uh take fifteen percent sell down on here. Take fifteen percent off matterport, take fifteen percent off at sea, fifteen percent of end phase or whatever that's great but gosh at those prices. In hindsight, it's like, i should have been more.

The other way around should have been eighty five percent, but you know the short term. Madness is uh, it's quite it's quite fascinating, uh. Okay, so i also wonder, let's see here, bear market rallies are a thing, but um we're going into a relief rally before we decline into march. Says blau, you know i one of my the nervousness is nervousness is that i do have uh.

Quite frankly is is march uh. I do uh wonder how how markets we're going to handle actual liftoff and then, if we end up getting, i think at the next meeting we get a summary of economic projections. Again, let me see fomc meeting schedule and if we see that's going to be scary, the the set now that doesn't mean we can't run up higher beforehand and then potentially go lower. But it's going to be something that the market's got a price in.

So in march, they're going to give us uh, what's called the summary of economic projections and essentially it's it's their dot plot. They put the little dots on a little chart and they show you hey. This is how high we think interest rates will end up going. Uh, this is how high we think inflation is going to be, and the differences in those measures.

Here's just a good example for you. This was the last one. The differences in where these dots end up landing is is a big deal. Every single one of these little survey, dots here matters and and so, for example, if in 2022 you have uh.

You have this. This expectation that we're going to be somewhere between 0.75 and 1, this more solid black line there being one percent, if, if that's kind of where the median is right now forecast. If this now moves up - let's say two slots over to one and a half percent uh, which otherwise we weren't expecting until 2023, then uh, then what you could actually see is this incredible pull forward of of rate hikes, and that could be very disgusting now. Let me give you an example of how that could look.

I'm just going to take my little eraser here here we go. Let's clean this up a little bit all right so watch this, and this this would be it'd, be shocking to see how the markets would respond. If, let's say for 2023, you actually ended up seeing you know people consolidate around - let's say here just as an example pretend these aren't here something like that and you you ended up having this big consolidation around here, but then on top of that, not only did You have that for 2023, this expectation that rates would be higher. What, if you end up with all of a sudden in 2022, this larger consolidation here to where basically the fed says something like oh uh, yeah, we're we're not going to raise rates as as much in 2023.

Instead, what we're going to do is we're going to raise them more in 2022.. This could entirely happen and the downside, if this happens uh, will be fascinating to see the police to see what ends up happening uh and based on what j-pal said yesterday, it's entirely possible. He did not rule out a half percent rate hike uh. If anything, he kind of implied that they could easily do a half percent rate hike.

I don't know if they will, because i still think it'll be a little shocking to the market uh. Oh sorry, i didn't know that banner was still there, but uh yeah anyway. Uh, okay, so uh, okay, ooh, let's see here, uh gon na take a look for a moment at btc. I'm topping over into ftx.us, which keep in mind if you sign up using the affiliate link in the description down below ftx.us, will give you a 10 discount on all trading uh fees uh, although their fees are already substantially lower but 85 lower than the competition so Check that out by the link down below but uh, here's your btc on the one minute chart.

Let's go zoom out a little bit. Sometimes it's important to uh, not only well. I think it's always important. It's always important not to only get stuck in the one minute candles, and here what's interesting, is you've got the fed meeting day, uh that that kind of brought the market down right here.

This is all jpow right here. All of this is just j. Pal pay pain, pain, pain, pain, bottomed out around uh. Yesterday evening, we've kind of been on a little little; tick; tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick back up which, which could potentially be the analogy for the the roller coaster? Uh? Okay, let's go get ready for the bell here, see how six are doing quickly, so seagate, moving up rude net netflix up almost six percent toast up five and a quarter cloud flare.

Look at that and good four point: eight eight percent here etsy four percent - really nice uh up star uh you've got nvidia shifts up 3.4 luminar 3.3 there's charge points over here at 3.3, lemonade 2.8 arc uh is up a tiny little bit and moving to the Downsides very little still about one page, all right: let's get the bell yeah, it should be right now. This is the chevron market. It is you know it's funny. I had a conversation this morning with a big growth manager, a lot of tmt.

Previously, you know what he was fine, the spending cycle for international just beginning, caliber, good double-digit numbers throughout the world. So carl i mean if your people are confused oil. Is it going look at that how green today i mean what an incredible uh, uh, sort of uh uh, look of the s p heat map uh compared to what we've been used to, which has just been so substantially red uh. Well, we'll see if it lasts.

That'll that'll be the tell today, let's let's see if it lasts so, let's get in over here, so uh yeah, okay, intel uh down uh about 3.0. Okay, intel look at this intel dropping on open here. Uh, a big question mark here is: is it a fake out again, you know: is this going to be another false, false start? So far, looking at the s p 500. We got a nice green open here.

Let's get to aapl here, aapl uh also moving nicely here going into earnings nice push here on apple we've got end face coming up a couple percent upstart uh five percent netflix, just zooming folks, people looking at that chart going well, probably not just the chart, but The the forward valuation of netflix's is not that bad at all, uh, i mean a relative for for being a one of the uh mega caps. I think the thing's trading for, like 15 times earnings, really incredible uh amazing for for one of these mega caps, but anyway uh netflix and that's not even future. That's just like now. You look at the trailing 12 again, but anyway uh so you've got nvidia.

4.4 percent upstart coming in a little mixed here, we'll see if we uh we end up holding on to some of these gains or not etsy, also a little mix. So it's cloudflare here at the start: uh here's, oh luminar kind of had some excitement here in the pre-market rotating down a bit right at the open and how's the qqq doing qqq rotating down a little bit here, nasdaq, actually rotating down in the first few minutes And tesla is down two percent. Oh you know it's. It's just mind-blowing to me that uh tesla could report the incredible uh earnings that it can and uh and be down like this.

But it's so incredible i mean i i said it before tesla earnings. I said it so many times i thought tesla was going to go down after earnings and uh. That's not because i don't love tesla, it's just because it does that. So, like you know, i don't think that's uh terribly unexpected, but it seems like six out of eight times.

This thing goes down after earnings. It's crazy, ari says it's a fake out! Fool me once that that that yeah, what does it fool me once uh? Shame on you fool me twice. Shame on me. I i want the pain to be over, don't like just just get stop but uh you know wants and hopes are just that wants and hopes lemonade.

4.6. You know their price to book uh, and this was one of the reasons i bought. Uh lemonade uh their price. The book is like 1.9 they've.

They have so much cash on hand, uh it's it's really incredible and - and this is beyond allowance for debts and liabilities - and you know so on uh, which is which is interesting because you get see the thing with insurance. Companies is uh prepaid, revenues or liabilities, because they're not earned yet right, yeah all right all right. Let's see here, look at seagate, though seagate's deciding to take off seagate's becoming the uh, the the swing trade of the day yeah you could be careful, though. The this is what i talked about yesterday is that momentum and look at that i mean the curve on seagate - has actually not been bad.

That is incredible. I mean here's january over here. The thing was: selling for 59 seagate's been been a double uh you're you're, almost at a double on seagate from the beginning of uh of january of 2021 last year, which is incredible uh someone says i can't believe neo is going to get close to under 20. Is that true, oh my gosh, oh wow, you're right, gee lordy! That is insane that is really really insane large rotation down here on on neo.

Look at tesla, oh my gosh, 3.4. It's just! Oh my gosh. What is what is? Is the rest of the market? Doing this too upstart uh netflix etsy netflix doing a little bit of a rotation down uh nvidia's kind of prancing around here a little bit the triple short qqq, it's up, 3.2 percent, again yeah spy's rotating down too. Oh my gosh sell everything.

No! Don't do that. If you're a long run investor, ah i can't give financial advice all right so and if i were to give financial advice it would not be to trade, maybe buy and huddle uh. I'm gon na look really quick to see what the uh the suits are saying about this open here fed can now spend some of its gains to fight inflation. That's what i was worried about.

That was the first thing i said when i uh when i opened up my live stream uh today. What about 30 minutes ago? And my biggest concern was that these gdp numbers are great for the economy, they're reiterating what we believed about the economy, but but then this. This is exactly what i thought uh. So this came in uh what eight minutes ago, uh an uh bloomberg digital editor.

Here i thought one of powell's most interesting answers during the press conference was in response to colby smith, where he talked about the difference between rate hike plans now and the rate hike plans of 2015. from 2015 to 2018. The economic situation was quite marginal, inflation was mild, growth was mild, and unemployment was not that low. The rate hikes seemed to be in pursuit of some idea of normalization getting off zero for the sake of getting off zero, as opposed to addressing any real inflation or overheating threat in that type of environment.

Any economic headwind or market volatility was the reason for the federal reserve. Paused now pyle think pile now. Powell thinks his hand is much stronger from the fed's perspective. The situation isn't marginal, it's banked an extremely impressive recovery and can now spend some of those gains to fight inflation.

That is a i mean it's it's very eloquently put compared to the jibber jabber that i said at uh. You know 30 minutes ago, but it's the same thing i said 30 minutes ago. In fact, i think this person could go even further in in reiterating that jerome powell, during the conference yesterday at least four times, said uh. Well, look the economic situation right now is stronger, so it could merit a stronger policy response.

You know it's one of the times he said that was directly in response to somebody asking essentially uh in a fancy way: oh, but the stock market's falling like. Doesn't that take some risk out of the system and and mean you could relax a little bit with rate hikes and he's like look? We don't care about financial markets as long as they don't affect inflation and jobs, and - and quite frankly, i think the implication he was sending, which was a very strong implication, was the jobs market is fine. We can, we can dampen the jobs market. We get plenty of demand for jobs, not worried about that at all, and inflation is so high that we got to do something yes, uh ishtar, uh 0077.

Here says this person listened for more than 20 minutes. Yes uh. This is a slam at uh josh from cnbc who went on cnbc yesterday and and was was much more positive about powell's uh uh uh conference uh, but he did in fairness and i'm glad he said it. Uh said he only watched for 20 minutes and i'm like dude.

If you would watch the whole thing, you would not be saying that a good one, that's a good one. Oh geez, all right but yeah. That's that's a fascinating uh potential, uh uh, reiteration of fear! Uh that that that i don't think bodes extremely well for l market going forward, but take a look at tesla. Now it's going back to the support line, uh omg - it is at 893 right now and tesla has fallen about 4.6 percent.

You know if i still had all my tesla shares just that decline right. There would be worth the way to look at it is whatever the percent is, call it a hundred thousand dollars, so that right here would be it's down four point: five percent would be five 450 k now i know that's that's bad to do because, obviously, like You have down days and updates right, like as a as someone who advocates long run, investing just don't look at those daily fluctuations. You know people always say like oh uh, it must be crazy. You know you made a million dollars today or whatever, because the stock went up and it's like two.

It can also go down a mill. Okay, like at the end of of of your investing time frame. You either made money or you didn't, but the gyrations are insane uh. Okay, look at that.

A little pre-bounce is trying to form uh a front running that 880 support line. Oh yeah, i don't know i'm gon na look away. Look at seagate, though 21 was 20. You know, while everything else is on fire seagate's over here, uh right next to smile, direct smile, direct club coming up six and a half percent uh etsy, holding on to that four percent along with netflix at that six and a half yeah volatility.

Okay, let me go see what else the suits are saying all right. Let's see we can. We can also jump around and look. Let's do a quick little ftx.

My uh go to mckevin.com ftxus, to sign up for the most amazing places to trade, uh crypto and get yourself this trading view integration as well, especially if you're trader, if you use the affiliate link, you'll save on a fees as well. Let's check out financial times. Let's, let's see what the brits are saying about us us economic growth, accelerated in the fourth quarter ahead of omicron yeah. That's that's important to know too is these.

Are you know the the full year read? Well, let's, let's take a look at exactly what the way they're describing it u.s economic growth accelerated more quickly than expected in the final quarter of 2021, boosted by consumer spending before disruptions from the omicron variant hit. It's a measure from october november and december right gdp, expanded 6.9 on an annualized basis, up 2.3 percent uh in uh from the third quarter, and it topped estimates of 5.5 uh yeah apple reports earnings today, no more mr nice guy fed chair signals, tougher stance on Inflation, no doubt it's like the andy sandberg. No doubt russia has little cause for optimism after us. Rejects nato demands.

Oh man, yeah! That's, that's! That's! When the market really goes ape. That's when we hit the circuit breakers is when russia runs in ukraine. Voluntary forces train russia has said little cause for optimism on thursday after the u.s rejected moscow's demands to roll back nato's expansion, but left the door open for further diplomacy as the west seeks to defuse tension. Well, that's good uh that doesn't sound so terrible.

You can't say that our dias were taken on board or that the u.s and nato showed any kind of preparedness to listen to our concerns. Yikes, dimitri best golf, probably ceo, over at deutsche bank, complaining about uh the war for talent, sharply rising compensation very concerned about an escalating warfare talent across investment banks. After a sharp increase in compensation costs left the division's profits far below investor expectations, every single bank has seen that it's jpm wells bank of america they and even city. They all complained about that bill.

Ackman buys netflix. Retail traders keep faith during wall street's turbulent uh january. Oh, let's. Let's take a look at what they're saying about retail investors.

Retail investors have leaned into the year's market gyrations pumping cash into u.s equities, even if, as share prices, tumble from historic highs. Small investors have been net buyers of u.s, equities and etfs. The scale of daily inflows stood above the 2021 uh average on all, but two days since the start of the year, wow, that's incredible. Are we going back up for now see spy, hey spy's going back up? I wonder if that means tesla's over 900 again and now - oh, it's painful uh - to see this uh anyway, qqq i'm down a couple percent uh lemonade's only up about one percent here, netflix still holding on to that six percent and seagate's still sitting at that 20.

Really incredible: oh yeah, what's uh, what's losing today, so uh, lucid, tesla, uh, neo, oh neo, is, is almost going to go under what 20 uh 20 rivian at 58. All of the automakers robin hood. That's ridiculous! Uh! That's that's incredible! And then you, then you start getting into the smaller declines. Uh tesla is now yeah.

4.6, lucid, 5.5 yikes. Look at that xp 6.7. You know i i feel so terrible for like kathy kathy wood and started huge positions here in x-bang. I do wonder what how much they have in it.

Maybe i don't know how huge huge actually is. We should so, let's go measure huge, really quick if you haven't checked out the website, yet it's not like sponsored over kathy's arc is amazing. I don't know if who puts it together, but it's it's incredible. Let's see here x, bang x, p e v, so okay, okay they're only in 23 million dollars.

That's nothing! Uh! That's! That's super super tiny, but one thing i was talking to uh ross and galley about yesterday on uh on the podcast we did together was look at uh, ark's ownership in companies sort by arc ownership and look at this how how big arc has gotten in in Terms of a contribution towards some of these companies are tourists, 18 percent beam, berkeley, surface personalized signified health. All of these over 10 percent - i mean over 10 percent stakes in these companies. I mean teledoc televox, a huge company and she has an 11 stake there. That's insane wild all right: oh x wing bottoming a little bit here so tesla.

It looks like getting a little bit of green here off the bottom very nice and let's see here netflix at uh, 6.8, snap, 5.6, salesforce, 4.3, macy's, four. Okay: let's go back to the ft uh i was. I was going to say financial times, but ftx also has that link down below oh and tomorrow's my birthday, so this is you're spending. My last day as a 29 year old with me, that's cool! It's a new decade tomorrow, all right! So, let's see here, let's try the times all right, so federal reserve signaled.

It could raise interest rates imminently, citing inflation and dram jaw, strong job market yeah, the differences between 2015 and 2018. In terms of how aggressive they're going to be with rates, i think, is uh profound fed kicks off most aggressive global tightening in decades. How? How are stocks supposed to go up on this uh, i mean obviously we'll have we'll have short-term rallies, but wow uh apple. Oh, this is interesting apple to rival square, by turning iphones into payment terminals.

Really i mean apple is planning on launching a new service that will let small businesses accept payments directly on their iphones without any extra hardware wow. Oh my gosh. That is not good for square. Oh my gosh uh! You know because look you might i'm sure you all have seen it the the people, everybody who does the uh the iphone like check out stuff now they they have to put like the little dongle in the bottom, for the square adapter or like the apple stores.

They put the larger case on so that they have the uh. I don't know if it's rfid or or whatever it is, but the little chip reader thingies uh, not not that the chips you slide in, but the tap to pay or apple pay right. Uh, oh near field communication, that's it anyway! You usually have to get some kind of case or adapter or whatever, for it uh the fact that uh, you know - and that was really an insulative blanket for square. But the fact that yeah here it is this.

This uh nfc system is uh, that's used for apple pay is, is now a massive competitor to uh to square now. Square uh also provides uh the the uh omni channel omni channel, which uh for business inventory and sales management, so it doesn't necessarily mean that people are like gon na dump, all of the apple term or uh the square terminals. I don't even i mean obviously converting people something else, but uh the business service side is going to be key, so i think, if apple actually wants to be able to get businesses to accept payments, they're going to have to provide business services for accepting online payments And in-store payments and managing inventory and things like that, omicron channel - let's, let's see if they mention anything about that, that would be huge. The company has been working on the new features since around 2020, when it paid 100ml for the canadian startup mobi wave that developed technology for smartphones to accept payments with the top of a credit card wow.

In order to accept payments on the iphone today. Merchants need to use payment terminals that plug in or communicate with the phone by a bluetooth. The upcoming feature will instead turn the iphone into a payment terminal, letting users such as food trucks and hair stylists accept payments with the tap of a credit card or another phone iphone on the back of the device. The moves could impact payment providers that rely on iphones such as square, which dominates the market.

If apple lets any app use. The new technology then square can continue accepting payments via apple devices without needing to provide its own hardware. That's actually another. That's that's! Actually, a a more maybe an optimistic way to look at it.

It actually makes it easier for square uh unless of course what's. This apple requires merchants to use apple. Oh, if, if that's an important one, if apple requires merchants to use apple pay or its own payment processing system, that could compete directly with square right, the the system is going to be very interesting, um and then the rest looks like it's just unclear sort of Reading, all of it all right, so, let's go to the downside here - is the downside still dirty? Oh, my gosh lucid is down seven percent. Oh my gosh uh and and uh tesla uh sitting down over here, uh four and a half percent neo uh.

Only about two percent you're trying to recover a little bit here - uh, i see matterport over here as well and the depths of despair uh. Yet the spy keeps soaring. The the story of life doesn't doesn't freaking matter what you're investing it. There's a spy look at this uh and - and you know it's what's always incredible - is just this thought of like oh well.

The spy's dominance has to end at some point and who knows maybe, but i mean look at how smooth this has been the ride for the s p 500. I mean since the the recession over here i mean. Let me just go to the weak chart. Look at the s p 500 on a weak chart.

There's there's our little gyration in the uh scale of uh of the week chart here. Oh my gosh, all right yeah. Somebody here says they made their first six figures investing in oil. Congratulations! You know! I don't do commodities, because commodities are a huge boom bust cycle and uh and i've never traded.

It uh, which i do think commodities are like you, you, if you're gon na be in oil. You, in my opinion, it's it's not a huddle. You need to trade, it uh. I i don't know all right makes me wonder: if is it time to short oil, but then then again see what will happen the day after you decide to short oil, because it's so high is uh.

Russia will invade ukraine and oil will go up 20. You know, that's usually the way it is um. The only short by the way i have right now in the market is uh lucid. Let's see really quick uh, oh wow yup.

I have uh short term so stupid, but whatever feb uh, 25 30 puts still out of the money. I don't think we've gone under thirty dollars yet have we it's not thirty one anyway. Okay, all right anything else. Going on.

Let's see here, seagate's softening a little bit, netflix is still killing it. You get smaller netflix now up to seven percent on an increase, uh shift technologies. Moving up here about 3.88. You know what one of these days they'll actually be a bottom for shift a trade desk two and a half, or almost three percent here, dutch bros 2.7.

You know dutch pros had a lot of momentum when they ipo'd lot uh. I thought the valuation was a little high, but honestly it hasn't come down that much from ipo. Let me see here, yeah look at that. The ipo was uh, oh yeah, that's right! It was during this boom time over here.

This is when i looked at it. It was like fifty dollars or whatever it's still fifty dollars. You know. So if you bought an ipo and you were diamond handing this thing sure you saw it go to 81, but it actually has not lost that much it's you know stable.

You know who can't say that would be like lemonade from their ipo. You know this is uh. Here's the lemonade ipo way over here uh. It was like 55 bucks or something - and now it's 25.

- that's crazy. Uh. That is wild. Well.

28. 28.90 is what it is right now: okay, somebody says: upstart just got right. You know this is what i talked about yesterday. Is these these potential shorter term swing trades that are becoming more and more short-term, like look at this pre-market, if somebody was trying to place trades pre-market for the open they're getting racked on upstart uh, look, you don't even care about the line uh.

I i mean this is from like eight months ago, and this was a big rally or let me see yeah yeah i was over here. This is where we got our our lines from was the drama of uh april and may of last year. Wow. It doesn't feel like it's that long ago, but it's actually more.

It's like 10 months ago. Okay, meanwhile seagate moving well netflix sitting around that seven percent level and uh. Oh tesla, just rotated a little bit more to the downside, tesla yeah yeah. Look at that! Look at that it tried to recover uh and it's failing.

I i wouldn't necessarily call redfin cheap, but their stock has gotten very inexpensive, 27 and - and i love redfin, don't get me wrong. I rode them uh from i had like a i bought them at 10. Bucks in the pandemic, i bought a little bit more uh than in the the late 20s and kind of stopped buying them in the 30s. I did sell them uh at like 42 bucks or something like that, but look how high they went at one point.

98 dollars i mean everything was just crazy, uh and then so it's just here's your j. All of this i just blame jay pal, but then again you could probably go over here and blame all of this on j-power. You know so, if you're going to blame them for the down, you kind of have to blame them for the up too. Oh, my gosh ugh look at that tesla's now at 883.

I wonder if it's gon na bounce off, i mean it's getting worse right now loose it's down about eight percent right now. This has got to be dragging down the spy. There is no way. This is not dragging down the spy yeah, not really not really um wow.

What madness all right! Well, we'll watch the madness continue to unfold and this what feels like almost free fall here on lucid, absolutely incredible anyway, wow uh, uh nick, that's a good hold on. Let me, let me see the cnbc breaking news. Breaking news from the national association of realtors, pending home sales fell 3.8 in december month to month that's a much bigger drop than was expected. The street was looking for down just under 12.

Now the drop was 6.9 down year over year, this index from the realtors represent signed contracts. So that's people out shopping in december when mortgage rates were actually considerably lower than they are right now. So what was the problem? Well, very, very little out there to buy the inventory of homes for sale in december was the lowest on record down 14 from december 2020, and it was pretty low back then as well. So regionally sales fell the most in the midwest and the west, but they were down across the nation.

We are seeing more buyer activity right now. Buyers are worried that mortgage rates are rising so fast. Now that they'll be priced out come spring, but again the severe shortage of homes for sale is keeping actual sales very low carl dianna. Thank you very much.

Diana like good thursday morning, everybody welcome to another hour squawk on the street. I'm carl quintanilla with morgan, brennan and david, is that the sign of the top in the real estate market trading has gone from holding for a year to holding for a few months to holding for a couple weeks to holding for a day to now. Just holding for 20 minutes uh well said: um graphite is abundant. Oh y'all, talking about batteries here faded polo kevin you'll have a chance to buy tesla around 500 to 650.

Again in time. Don't worry. I don't know whether to feel good about that or bad about that. Thanks again kevin for sticking around through all the stress and drama.

There's, there's always beer uh anyway, uh lucid is is uh is, is rubber banding this support line from quite a long time ago. Uh, this is thirty dollars. It's been a while, since we've had these support lines drawn, this was probably back in february a little bit of a of an ev bounce here, a little bit of a reversal in that pain. Oh my gosh.

There goes tesla again off of that uh 880 line or approximately that 879 line i mean it. It continues retesting that line it's. It's really incredible: uh, really incredible! Uh! After fully investing again do a detailed comparison of your 1 to 20 positions versus trading strategy. Ultimate transparency of brilliance, fuel here, oh thanks, justin well, we'll see we'll see what happens we'll see.

You know, and you know people get mad at me. They're, like oh kevin, you turned into a bear. It's like it's because j-pal is just getting worse and worse and worse i mean i i did. I honestly did not think it could get worse.

Uh from the december meeting uh. I did think the market still had downside in it, but uh. I didn't think that jay pal was going to be more bearish than december. I thought he would just be equally bearish, uh and, and it was it was ugly.

It was ugly well volatility index is down 10. Today, smile direct see, here's your your same kind of trading madness here. Five percent and rotating right back down uh, although seagate is still holding on western digital moving up in sympathy, sympathy trade desk up about four percent etsy about 3.9. So a little bit of you know mixed mixed day here, all right folks.

Thank you. So much for being here go to medkkevin.com ftx.us check out the programs on building your wealth link down below lots of info on long run. Investing and uh real estate might be some opportunities coming up in real estate. If we end up topping out uh, it was a coupon expiring tomorrow for my birthday and we'll see y'all thanks so much bye.