Hey, this is Tom Nash and we have a major warning coming out out of Michael Berry Now for a few weeks now, we heard a lot of chatter that Michael Berry from The Big Short The guy who bet against the market in 2008 and made a lot of money is betting against the market right now, betting on a crash now. He actually responded on Twitter saying that you don't know how short I really am now I might be slightly paraphrasing his tweet, but here's the thing: I Don't think he's joking because looking at what I'm about to show right now, you can make a very strong case that the market is headed to some really, really bad places. Now look, first of all, we know right now the FED is heading toward the four and a half five percent interest rate. They're slowly hiking up the rates, making money more expensive, trying to slow down inflation. It is kind of working, but we just heard James Bullard one of the FED Governors basically coming out and saying, look, the job ain't done yet, we're not getting the results we want. We need to be at seven percent now. James Bullard doesn't get to call the shots and he's known to be kind of more the hawkish side of things. But even if the FED goes to six percent, it's a very destructive process for the market and you're already seeing the initial results. Despite inflation still being at four times higher than the rate the FED will accept as normal, which is two percent, we're currently at 7.7 percent. The market has already started feeling the pain from this high interest environment. We just heard that Amazon is laying off 10 000 employees. Facebook Just announced massive layoffs. We heard multiple companies laying off employees and this is just the beginning. This is just the start. Look at some data that mainstream media is not going to show you. There's a very interesting data point. I Want you to go and search right after this video. It's called the personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income. So your disposable personal income is basically how much money you have left in your pocket after you've done paying for everything. After you pay taxes you paid for school, you pay for everything, how much free cash flow you have to spend on whatever video games, having fun, whatever that may be, and your savings rate basically out of that amount is essentially how much of it you're putting to save, and how much you're spending. So right now, and by the way, in times of you know, Prosperity that number goes through the roof. During the pandemic, we had record-breaking numbers. Right now, we're at the lowest point where three percent. That's the lowest point we had since April 2008. we haven't had this low of a savings rate out of the DPI the deposable personal income since April 2008. Now I Just want to remind you that 2008 is not a very very pleasant time for the market. that was the big crashed that Michael Berry already predicted. so for me it's a big red flag. They won't show you this on CNBC because they think it's over your head, but I will because I know you guys are smart. Microberry bet against the market in 2008 is betting against the market right now. He just literally lets you know on Twitter and it's right there. Go search personal savings rate as a percentage of DPI of disposable personal income and you'll see we're at the same point on the chart we were in April 2008. It took 15 years but we got back there and now he's betting against it now. We heard not only him Jeff Bezos literally came out a few days ago and told you, hey, save money, stock up on cash and stop spending He literally owns a website that is making money by you buying stuff and he's telling you, hey, stop buying Bad times are coming. So if Jeff Bezos is telling you that there's definitely something you have to pay attention to, that's not a laughing matter. Now Look, it's no reason to panic. But I Want to explain to you the next steps: the FED is going to increasingly be more and more hawkish. They're not going to stop because they've already screwed up too many times. They're going to push the boundary until they get to two percent inflation. and until that happens, there's going to be a lot of blood on the streets, a lot of pain in the stock market. Also, don't forget what's about to happen in the next few months. The energy Market is going to go out of control. Winter is Coming Heating costs are going to go through the roof because energy is actually going to be a huge part of it. Not to mention that OPEC is not playing ball with the Us at all and China is actually finally reopening after a whole lot of time of these lockdowns. So China is coming back as a major consumer. We have winter coming up as a major accelerator for that consumption, and OPEC is nowhere near to having a proper discourse with the U.S as slowing down the prices and guess what? No more special petroleum Reserve release towards the midterm elections in the US. Which means that the U.S government cannot prop up the prices or rather keep it low artificially anymore. Now look, all of this is not to tell you to panic, right? Let's be cool about this. But there's one thing you need to understand if companies are laying off employees as we are seeing right now across the board. That means they're going to be less spending on discretionary items. But the story here isn't about the Panic, it's about how to prepare. Look when you have massive layoffs which we keep hearing on the mainstream media, that means that discretionary spending is going to come down. People are getting laid off. Which means less purchasing of non-essertional items discretionary stuff Furniture Electronics Clothing They're going to spend on having a house and having food. That's it probably getting. Transportation That's probably going to be it until they figure out what the hell is going on. If that happens, you can see softness in retail retail is going to take a hit. They're going to lay off employees because they're not making as much money. Those laid off employees are going to spend even less. And that's going to cost two more layoffs into a vicious cycle, leading the economy into a screeching halt. Now, a lot of people like to throw these two numbers at me to tell me why I am wrong. Number one: They just saw the Walmart reports come out and they're phenomenal. They're great. Yes, Walmart had a record-breaking quarter. Guess what? That's bad news. That literally proves what I'm saying here. Walmart Great business, great company. No hit against Walmart but Walmart does great when people can't afford premium brands people go to Walmart when they're trying to save money. And by the way, great place to save money is Walmart So shout out to them. but that basically is a full-on accelerator showing you that a lot of people have moved from premium brands from expensive Brands into Walmart. That's just how it works in bad times. So Walmart doing better is an indicator that things are not as good as they seem. And the other number they keep showing me is the job Market How great the job market is. But you have to understand. you can't look at the job market stagnant like where it is right now. It's fine and dandy, but whoopty do. It doesn't really matter. What matters is where the job market is going to be in six months in a year. If this vicious cycle can continues of people getting laid off, spending less more people getting laid off, what you're going to see is softness. in corporate. you're going to see softness in the real estate market, which already we can see. we have low rates of mortgage applications, We have low rates of car loan applications. Everything is slowing down. People are not spending on these things anymore. so if this continues we have to prepare because the stock market is not going to be immune to a bad economy and this is what Michael berries telling you now I Made a whole video explaining how I'm going to invest in 2023 knowing it's going to be a rough year. I Don't think that getting out of this Market is the solution I Think there's a right way to invest despite the fact that we know bad times are coming I'm going to put the link to the video right here. Go check it out right now. Let me know below what you think and if you haven't yet subscribed to the channel I'd really appreciate it if you do It really helps me and you know promotes the Channel with the algorithm. Thank you so much I'll see you next video.