In this video we will be diving into the Q2 financials of Ford, and we will perform a head to head comparison with Tesla's Q2 numbers, to see who had the better quarter, TSLA or Ford?
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This is tom nash and as requested. I'm going to do a full comparison comparison between ford tesla and gm as a bonus. The financials hold on a second're going to get to it. But first i want to show you what's going on so right now we're still missing in the critical part as you can see right here.
We don't have the quarterlies for four the only thing we have is just the press release right here q1 q2 yes. But we cannot get to the filings. The thank you the qualities are not out yet probably going to be out later today once we have them out i'm gonna actually analyze them there's more detail there that i actually need but we already have enough as it stands to go ahead with the initial analysis based on the press release as it stands. So let's go back to the press.
Release. So as far as the press release itself. I mean look. It's probably as far as the bottom line summary.
Because you guys like me to summarize. It's not as bad as gm. There's a lot of good things about ford. I'm not gonna be sitting here and bashing ford.
I'm also not going to be basically sitting here and pretending that ford is you know the best things and sliced bread. Because it's actually neither so i'm going to be very fair and honest the bottom line is this is way better than gm. What we saw yesterday. But still not as good as tesla.
And i'm going to show you i'm going to show you side by side each category. Why. But i'm also going to show the good stuff because i think there's a lot of good stuff with the way ford is actually performing at least in this quarter. It's not bad at all so first of all the first thing i want to show you before i show you the excel spreadsheet.
I have in the whole expression excel spreadsheet basically comparing company to company. But before we go through that i want to show you actually the numbers themselves from ford. Again. This is from the press release.
So first of all the first thing. I want you to notice is this net. Income 4. 4 for the first half of the previous year was.
38. Billion this time we're at negative 25. It's a major drop. But there might be reasons for this which we only find out once we see the 10 q quarterly.
So i'm not going to stay too long on this. However. Where i do see a problem. And this has nothing to do with the quarterlies is with these two things that i'm going to show you right now.
So this is the net cash. This is just cash items cash items. Only so nothing accounting wise that i'm going to be. Missing so cash wise ford went down from 52.
Billion of net cash provided by operations in the first half of the previous year to 18. Billion in the first half of this year. So that's a massive massive 64 drop in net cash from operations for ford first half this year first half last year. That's not good now what i do find peculiar and kind of funny to be honest.
If you look at this these are the numbers from financing so what this is what they did from financing so they. Did 6178 from financing that's just in the first half of uh of 2021. Versus. 4142. For the first half of 2022. As you can see right here. So. If you're honest about it beyond the fact that you know it's less that's not the point look at the numbers.
Let's compare how much ford made from selling vehicles. From operations which is. 18 billion to how much ford made from. Financing 41.
Billion. So in fact and the argument could be made here in this little bit of a nerd joke is that ford not tesla. Ford is not a car company because they literally made double from financing then from car sales as far as operating activities go versus financing activities in fact. I mean with these numbers they might be even better than nancy pelosi.
I mean who knows at this point. But you know it's just an anecdotal thing. I think where the problem is for ford is here look. This is the main problem.
A ford is doing way better than gm. Four numbers are up they're selling more cars for sure and they're definitely way better than gm. But and yes and they do have dominance in the most important category in the us auto industry which is pickup trucks so pickup trucks is the best category in the us ford dominates it still with the f 150. That's why they have great numbers and they'll continue to do it until somebody challenges them haven't happened yet i mean i don't know maybe the cyber track who knows but i mean god knows when it's going to come out it's definitely not going to be reviewing the review and pickup track isn't the competitor to the f 150.
If you think about it if you like pick up tracks. You understand why if not doesn't matter. Where ford actually has a problem is in issuance of long term debt right here. So.
If you basically focus on the screen. And you look at the issuance of long term debt you'll find something really. Strange ford issued essentially borrowed almost 117. Billion dollars in the first half of last year.
Ford borrowed another almost 19 billion dollars in the first half of this year. This company keeps borrowing money obscene amounts of it and the result is the one line. Below it look payments for long. Term debt can you see that 266.
Billion. In the first half of last year 25 billion. Almost in the first half of this year. So this is a company that's so much in debt they're paying 25 billion.
Every six months as payments for long term debt. That's not sustainable for any company long term. I mean you cannot survive in this business. When you're paying 25 billion.
This is worse than the us government for debt payments. It's just insane. And okay. Let's go forward a little bit here.
Because there are a lot of good things also for ford now we're getting to the parts. Where i got to give them credit. I mean gotta give them praise. I did some preliminary checking here so this is the automotive revenues for the first half of 2021. They had 57 billion for the first half of 22 70. Billion it's a 214. Percent. Increase well done not easy in this economy.
Good job ford just comparing the second quarter to the second quarter of 2021. This is even more outstanding look 57 increase insane brilliant numbers really really good in fact they're way better than gm's because look at it. Here the. Cost structure this is.
The cogs the cost of sales 192. Versus 214. And 45 versus 57. So basically the growth of their automotive revenues is much higher than the growth of their costs.
Opposite of gm. And very similar to tesla. So in that respect they deserve a lot of credit also i want to give them a shout out because their sg a sailing general administrative. Didn't go up at all they're completely stagnant.
I mean they're not spending any excess money unlike gm we saw that insanity so sgna stays flat. Which is always a good sign of good management and what i do want to show you here is another good thing look operating income ford went up from. 2442 billion in the first half of previous year to 4211. Billion in the first half of this year.
That's a 72 increase in operating income amazing really really good this is i think the next part is a little bit misleading and that's why i'm missing. The 10 qs. The qualities to figure out where this crazy number is coming from if you look down below. And you see income loss from before income taxes basically this number shows you negative 3 billion.
And all of a sudden like in the previous half of last. Year they had 46. Billion and they're doing better so it doesn't make any sense. The company is doing better but all of a sudden they just have 7 billion less of income and then you look up and you say there's 66.
Billion. And it says other laws. What other laws. I don't know it might be the reviewing thing or at least partially the revealing thing.
But if so it's accounting. It's basically you know um. It's just written going down in value. I don't know.
But that's 160 drop in income i mean it's i think it's accounting base. I wouldn't take this too seriously at least until i see the thank you so i'm not going to knock forward for this let's scroll down a little bit more and i want to show you two more things before we go to the excel. Spreadsheet. Right here.
This is the balance sheet. And here. Where things get a little bit murkier for ford not as good as before they're down five percent in their cash reserves. Not amazing.
However. And this is another kudos to ford their inventory increased only fifteen percent. If you remember from yesterday. We saw gm rise and thirty percent tesla uh.
Sorry. Gm 40 tesla. 30. Don't remember like ford only increased 15 that shows me they don't have a lot of idle vehicles unfinished vehicles. Which they can't deliver not as bad as gm and tesla. So in that category of unsold inventory. It seems that you know ford is doing way better than gm and tesla. You gotta give them credit.
I mean can't lie now assets to liabilities right here assets have dropped. 44. Percent the ratio assets to abilities for ford is 121. Very similar to gm and much worse than tesla as i'll show you in a second in the in the excel spreadsheet what i do want to focus on here is very interesting again the 66.
Other loss keeps popping up i don't know where this is from my guy. This is weird. But look at the operating margin. The operating margin for the first half of 22 was five and a half percent.
The operating margin for the second quarter was seven percent okay so this is getting interesting so it seems it seems to me based on this preliminary kind of review that if you just look at the second quarter versus. The first half is that ford is actually improving their margins. Which is not bad at all now. I don't know.
If i have any more notes. Here. Um. Oh.
Yeah. Of course. The same thing as gm. Ford.
Credit. It's very similar to gm finance. It's basically their business and yes. It's not real debt uh.
However you have to understand there's a lot of risk with this sort of business model. The first thing that in if we are going to recession and there's going to be a lot of car payments defaults and this 42 billion is going to be very very risky so and similarly to gm. We talked about this and then a lot of mumbo jumbo. Let's go to the excel spreadsheet right now.
So i've took the liberty to add a little bit of a goofy. Pictures. You have mr. Mary lead.
And with the gm logo right here. I bunch them together ford and the techno king elon musk. Okay so first of all i have a few corrections in my previous. Video i mixed up tesla global vehicle sales with gm us sales a whole mix up so this.
Time i went to car. Car salesbasecom. And i took it directly from there so this is q1 vehicle sold in the us. Only by each company.
So that way we are comparing apples to apples. And the numbers are solid okay cool so in that category gm sold the most as you can see right here 509 000 vehicles ford sold 429 vehicles tesla is way behind with 110 000 vehicles that's just usq1 however this is pretty much where the tesla getting uh. You know beat by gm and ford will end as you'll see in a second so. I've added four to the mix before we look at the test.
And gm maybe we'll keep the success speech and spreadsheet and just add more vehicle manufacturers to it just to create more and more let me know below in the comments. If you want me to keep adding more and more in my next video just to um. Just to you know create a very interesting spreadsheet with all the auto manufacturers. So basically look and by the way in the previous video. I had a little mistake here so the 17 and then 25 flipped so 17 was on top 25 on the bottom but this is the way it looks so the final result was still 5072 increase. Which is correct. But just the presentation was a little bit off okay cool let's talk about it so automotive revenues for the first six months of 2022 70. Billion.
Dollars an increase of 2139. For ford for the first half compared to the first half of previous year way better than gm with a 94. Percent. Not as good as tesla with their 65 percent.
Okay so this team will continue as as we go forward ford better than gm not as good as tesla. Uh cost for the first six months of 2022 for. Ford was 62 billion up from 52. Billion an increase of 192.
Percent um more expensive. I mean the higher rate of increase. I guess compared to gm. But if you look at this and a half percent of gm versus nine point four percent increase in sales their increase in cost is faster than increase in sales.
However in ford look increase in sales is up twenty one point four percent and as long as it's growing faster than the cost increase which is 192. Percent. I'm good with that again not as good as tesla with a gap of 14 between cost growth and. Revenue.
Growth operating income for the first six months of 2022 42. Billion. Slightly lower than gm. And just likely.
However. Much better quarter of a quarter. Sorry the first half of the first half so from first half of 2021 to first half of. 2022 an increase of 724.
Percent. Uh wow. Impressive impressive definitely compared to the negative. 30 of gm.
But again not as good as tesla with their 220 increase. So you're starting to see the trend here again. We have net income here. I don't think we can use this because it includes this weird six point six point six billion loss.
I don't know where it came from maybe. It's driven. I don't know so this i would just skip for now. This minus 165.
Let's just uh let's just highlight it and let's just leave it until we actually see the the ten cues okay cash. We can't look at so. Cash they're down five percent not as bad as. Gm losing.
167. Percent of the cash definitely not as good as. Tesla which actually increases cash is about 42. Percent.
And again. They have the same thing as ford and gm. You know gm finance has almost 94 billion. They have 67 billion that's just in the you know in the in the car loan business.
The payments. What not now as far as that similar debt to. Gm i. Mean that's net of ford.
Credit. 178. Compared to gm very very similar. The ratios as you can see right here cash to that ratios is pretty much identical one for both this literally all the cash.
They have is pretty much debt. We know that right if you look at tesla. Again six point. Three they have six times more cash than that a whole different story assets reliability is very very similar you know. 12 ratio versus gm's 13. Very very similar not as good as gm definitely not as good as tesla with 22. Ratio. Which is much higher.
It's actually valued very similarly to gm. I don't know why because i think it's a way better company across the board. So they are valued at three billion higher which i guess is okay. But if i had to rank these for sure this would be three two and then obviously one this would be the ranking.
I would give it i think the difference between gm and ford based on these financials definitely justifies. I think for ford um. A better premium than just three billion. Because their numbers are much better.
Than ford's but again they're not as good as tesla. But again. The question remains here as i asked this before is the fact that basically tesla is bidding out these guys in this matter. Is worth 16x.
More is tesla 16 times better than ford. Because we just saw ford give better results than gm. Okay. So if we saw gm.
We saw four four did. Better. So. The question is is this good enough to say that tesla is not 16.
Times better comment. Below let me know and let me know if you want me a to do the review of the 10 qs when they come out which is the quarterly and if you want me to add more auto manufacturers to the series and just add. The toyota like other cars etc. Let me know below.
Hi Tom
Ad Toyota if you have time time.
Thanks
Basically, long Ford and short GM, as a arbitrage move.
Itโs almost like the LT debt payments are tied to auto sales, loaning cash to their customers, and collecting loan payments.
TM to see what theyโre spending on (batteries?) & BYD for future sales, please.
I think the -6.6B is an accounting impairment for unrealized RIVN depreciation, similar to prior BTC impairments on TSLA earnings reports
Thanks Tom, would be good to see Toyota and VW on this too. Also need to include Tesla Finance debt as well for accurate comparison. They also hold customer finance debt
Dude! Your timing is impeccable. Based on my TA, I opened a small position last Friday on Ford. Your analysis here is going to help me so much in keeping me honest with this trade. And yes, please, give me more when the info comes up. Thank you so much!
All companies with Pension funds have an undisclosed huge problem .They work these funds out based on a certain life expectancy well they are about 20 years behind the medical advances that have happened let alone what might happen in the next 10 years .Simply put lets say you plan on funding a person till they are 78 years old , but now they are likely to live to 86 . Now consider with more medical advances this number may be 95 in a decade . Now consider healthcare cost this grows at least twice the rate of inflation so that expense will also be much bigger .Companies play around with the allocation to pension funds ( Governments don't stop this ) based on old figurers ,if they took a more modern outlook it could be seriously bad .
Ford increased the dividend
Nice side by side breakdown. I would love to see this each quarter for GM, F and TSLA. In addition, maybe annually, have a larger list of auto makers.
Ford long tearm debt2019 2020 was101B 110B 2021 was 88b , 2022 87B.
This man has been wrong about ark and palantir and he is elon simp don't trust his dumb ideas
We need more Single stock Analysis bro. !
Weak video brother. If you donโt see Teslas superiority to make money today and a lot more in the not too distant future I donโt know what to tell you. Listen to Sandy Monroe and understand how Tesla keeps reinventing the way cars are manufactured.
Great video Tom! Please add Hyundai. Since they are the second largest slice in the EV market in the United States ๐บ๐ธ. Keep up the good work my guy! ๐๐
I think it would be nice to see Hyundai as they are blowing up with the ioniq 5
Whyy do you differentiate when looking the financials between the automative and financing business of Ford, but when you look at debt you don't do that?
Funny how that works
My thought is that the stock market is very speculation driven. With this in mind, ask yourself where these companies will be in 2025? I see GM as a very minor player in the automotive field. I don't have a clear understanding about Ford. They are doing the right things, but perhaps too late. But by that time, I am thinking that between the cars, cyber trucks, and the semi trucks, Tesla will be huge. That is not even counting the energy side of the business. So if your are really asking do we think that Tesla has sixteen times the potential of the other two, I would answer YES!
good stuff! pls ad VW
if you're not reporting that it is game over for gm and ford, then you are not being honest …
Wondering if the real question around the evaluation differences is what would GM and Ford be valued at by the market if they were only making EVs with Tesla-like margins and properly positioned to sell into a global market of ~2 billion ICE vehicles (to be replaced)?
Great video! Please add Honda and Toyota. I'm not sure any other OEM would add benefit.
We love a spreadsheet and a few graphs. Great data thanks
Ford is way under valued. Tesla about right and GM overvalued.
Great video, Tom! It would be awesome if you put VW into the spreadsheet too
The problem with Tesla bull is they think Tesla is the only car company that makes money.
Great content, thank you for showing me how to read these things. I think you will help 1000โs of investors looking to invest in the right companies. Please continue this kind of education.