Hey guys, it's sasha today, i'm going to share something pretty important and i hope quite interesting. This is a lesson about investing strategy that i feel can really change how you think about making investing decisions, and i think you might think about a few things slightly differently when you've heard - and there are a lot of different important points throughout this. This is not just one lesson so so so listen through the whole thing. The lesson is called investing is like poker, but it doesn't matter whether you're a seasoned poker pro or if you've never played the game before.

That is not what this video is about, because poker has many of the same upsides and downsides as investing, and there are some interesting things that you can see really clearly when you're talking about a game of cards that are perhaps not as clear when we make Our investing decisions, poker is a game that has a perfect numbers-based theory and numbers based outcomes with very imperfect and very limited data available to us when we are playing the game. Having a pair of queens is a really great hand when you're starting out each hand, and you have a very large chance of winning the pot. But as you play, you have no idea what any of the other people around the table are holding, and you also do not know what the flop turn or river cards will bring. You also don't know what the psychology is going to be around the table, how people are going to play, etc, because, as you play each hand, new information is constantly revealed to you all the time and that can help you make better decisions than what you can Make just at the beginning, you can see patterns and what the other people are doing, how they're betting you can you have the three cards that will be shown in the middle of the table? That could make things much better or a lot worse for you, depending on what they are, and this is exactly what happens with investing, and you have to take note of these three cards.

If the turn is telling you that your king queen suited has no chance of collecting anything, then your cards don't look as good as before. You saw that extra information and you will have to adjust your strategy. Maybe you have to sell out of an investing position because new information that you've just come across completely changes your perspective, and you have to be open to your perspective. Changing it might tell you that your previous thesis no longer stands.

You might also, on the other side, double down and invest more if the new information on your king, queen suited, brings up a jack and ten of exactly the same suit. And i might tell you that you could possibly be onto a big winner and from the outside. Many people who don't play poker would perhaps say that it is just gambling. It is just a game of chance and if you'd play poker, you would know that to some degree it is true.

Chance does have a big role. Just like the stock market will do whatever it will do whenever it wants to do it, but underneath that the numbers are the difference between pro players who make a lot of money and beginners who lose every friday night in the short term. Psychology can be the reason why you win a hand. You might have read a tell.

You might have sensed that your opponent was nervous or maybe you saw them being indecisive. Maybe you saw something in their eyes. Maybe you heard a nervous tap of their foot under the table or got some other bit of data that other players did not, and you can win a hand just on that psychology. You can win a hand just by having these little snippets that give you the upper hand, but if you want to win a big poker tournament or if you want to win consistently week after week, month after month and year after year, you will need to learn How to play the numbers and you'll need to learn exactly what the probabilities and distributions look like in different scenarios with different cars on the table, and it's the same exact thing with investing.

You can make a short-term trade, because you feel you know something that others. Don't or you see the data differently, you might be able to get a big win as a result, and that could well happen. But in the long term fundamentals rule the game. Investors with a robust long-term strategy have a very good likelihood of making money hell.

Just investing in the total stock market index will an average return nine to ten percent a year, and that is not too shabby. That is actually quite good, but try going for big trades, based on hunches all the time every single day, based on guesswork and see how far that will take you, maybe you're, going to win some, but the vast vast majority of people who do this, who trade Over a long period of time will lose money. You don't have to trust me. You can google, it there's endless studies available and out of the tiny minority that do not out of the tiny minority that managed to turn a profit.

Almost everyone from that tiny segment will make returns that are less than the minimum wage they would have earned if they spend the same amount of time. Flipping burgers down the local shop - and here is the really really important first lesson: poker is a game of hands. At the beginning of each hand, everyone around the table is equal. Now, players might have different numbers of chips and might have different amounts of money.

They can play with and the order around the table changes. So there's slight advantages and slight disadvantages to some of the players, but that's pretty much it then you play a hand and you either decide decide to play or pass and most of the time in poker. When you assess your hand, you will choose to pass because you don't feel it is a good enough investment and if you play you will either win or lose that particular hand. But once that hand is over the next one starts and everything starts from scratch.

Again, you might have slightly more or slightly less chips, but you have to play the exact same game and use the same strategy. Investors often fail to recognize that investing works in the same exact way you go and pick on a company that you want to invest in you've probably looked at dozens of other companies first, but then, after doing your assessment, you decided it wasn't worth putting your chips In and then you're staring at a pair of aces and you decide that now. Finally, it is time to go and invest in this thing, and so you push your chips into the table, so you invest and you play out the hand things happen along the way. Other people are playing against you, new cards show up and they could make your hand better.

They could make it worse over time, but then, after all the ups and downs in the end, let's say you win. The share price reaches your target. You don't see any more upside and you sell up. You have completed that hand.

You now have a few more chips and you can do a bit more with them, but now now you have to start again, but the game hasn't changed. You're, just playing the next hand, the key to winning over time is to consistently play out a winning strategy. One hand after another. Rinse and repeat you don't have to win every single hand and you don't have to win big in the hands that you do win.

But if your strategy lets you win enough of those hands over time, you are going to do pretty well, and the second really important lesson is this: in poker, the vast majority of players are beginners. Quite a few are complete noobs, who barely know the rules. There are some pros out there and you can play with them, but when you play against beginners two things happen. The first is a good bit.

Numbers always win in the long run, and if you stick at it - and you know what you're doing you should win on average over time against these beginners, but playing with complete beginners is also incredibly difficult. In fact, it is much more difficult to play with complete beginners than with seasoned pros. You have no idea what you're going to do. You have no idea what they're thinking or why they're thinking it, they probably don't know themselves.

You can have the most solid poker strategy out there, but you can still lose because it is impossible to predict what it is that you're dealing with where it's going to go. You're, basically playing blind - and this analogy is how i often think about people who go and try to invest in things that are very unpredictable things like meme stocks, meme, crypto tokens, airtight international or whatever penny stock. Someone told you about, and the problem here is that we all think that we can make a lot of money from this, because this is the beginner stuff. This is the stuff that goes up and down.

This is the easy money and if you play these games, you absolutely have no idea what the other side is doing. You also have no way of being able to find out. This is not a large corporation with years of history, robust data and endless information out there from different sources and sure some people will make a lot of money off. These plays playing these beginners, but don't for a second think that you are going to make this money, even if you do, because you are some kind of great investor, the only real reason is going to be luck.

I hate to break it to you, so so make sure that you are happy with your choices. If that's the route that you want to choose and one of my favorite poker formats out, there is a multi-table tournament. These tournaments are where a number of people all compete for the same set of prizes. Everyone pays an entry fee and there might be a few dozen, maybe even a few hundred different people playing on many many different tables, and this takes a while.

But as players are eliminated as the game progresses, eventually, a small number end up on the final table, which is where the big money is won and the reason i really like multi-table poker tournaments is because they add a whole new strategic element to the game. Above and beyond normal poker, you have to plan, and you have to be very calculated with your strategy. The way that you play at the beginning of one of these tournaments is completely, or at least has to be completely different to how you would play on a final table, and it's almost like you're playing two different games. When you consider those two things, the people who do particularly well in these tournaments know that and they apply it.

You'll have someone who doesn't play a single hand for the first hour, or maybe even two of the tournament just sitting there and watching, but then that same player will be the most active player on the final table and as an investor. This lesson of having a long-term strategy where you have to play differently at different points is incredibly important. There will be times where, as an investor, your strategy is just to sit tight. Do nothing wait, wait some more and that is going to happen a lot that should happen for the vast majority of your investing career, i mean sure, put in some extra money every month.

If you have it all of that, but more times than not the right strategy is just to hold and wait, but then something will happen. There will be a moment of panic. The markets will turn red and crash to the floor, or new legislation happens or who knows anything can happen, and then the strategy that you want to play at that point will be, and in many cases should be completely different. Sometimes you will have to turn from the guy who has done nothing for a few years to the most active player, especially if you've decided what your strategy will be in that particular scenario in advance.

Before it happens, you know, while you are sitting there doing nothing. I hope you found this one thought-provoking and useful. If you have, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm. Thank you so much for watching.

I really really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later.