Intel vs. AMD Stock: The Choice Was Never Clearer
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πππ Big shout out to our growing list of Patreons. For those of you want (and can) support our channel, here is how you can help: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=13016082
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I have no positions in either INTC or AMD.
DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching To'ms videos, please Don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Okay, so let's compare apples to apples intel corporation on the one hand, 56 dollars, on the other hand, amd 89. Now this price in itself doesn't really tell us anything about the company. We have to take a look at what the market gap is. The share price is irrelevant, so let's look at the market cap 223 billion.
That's the intel market cap, on the other hand, amd is at 105 billion now. Clearly you can see that intel is double the size of amd as far as market cap. However, as you can see, for the past year, amd did almost 57 returns on its stock, so the stock grew by 57. In a single year, however, intel lost over seven percent of its share price over the same period, which means that, as far as trajectory as far as momentum, intel and doing so hot while amd is running very very high and that run up concerns a lot of People not necessarily myself, because i think it has more room to run, but, as you can see right here, the short interest on amd is significantly higher than intel.
7.3 percent versus only one point: five percent for intel and just to give you some context in the bluetooth company, you would expect to see anywhere from two to four percent short interest, that's kind of normal and when you see seven point three percent. That is definitely not a short squeeze material meme stock, but this is way higher than what's average for this type of company. When you see 1.5, that's slightly below its average. So here's the thing here - it's not about which company is better because obviously amd has the better runway for the next decade.
It's about which company is more reasonably priced, so intel is 56.23, is according to these people, who are shorting much more reasonably priced than amd. At 89 41 dollars, it's just a question of valuations people think that amd at 90 got a little bit ahead of itself. So here are the multiples for both companies and if you watch my channel, you know i only focus on three type of multiples. Pe gaap trailer 12 months, eevee sales trailing 12 months and, of course, ev ebitda trailing 12 months, and you know for this video, let's just add price to sales as well, because this is another metric that can give us a lot of insight.
On the other hand, let's do the same thing for amd right here: p gap, ev sales, eb. Of course everything is trading 12 months. I don't like to look at consensus because consensus tend to change very quickly on wall street okay. So let's compare the intel.
Pe is 12.4 now the pe for amd is 36.57. So clearly, investors are pricing amd three times more expensive than intel. Is it a better company? Yes, is it a better company by three times than intel? That's another question which i'm not sure about the same thing goes: ev sales now intrinsic value to sales for intel is three while ev sales for amd is at nine same thing, three times more expensive. Look at this, it gets even worse.
Evie to ebitda for intel is 6.8, so, let's just say seven so we'll expect to see a 21 for amd, but it's actually at 46.. So as far as this metric, it's even more overpriced compared to intel, not to mention the same thing goes with price to sales, with three for intel and nine for amd. So clearly, amd is priced at a much higher premium than amd and in a second i'll show you why the question is: is this car a good purchase at this price? Imagine you're comparing two cars. One is a ferrari and one is a let's say, a nissan leaf or a nissan sentra, whatever something very basic and simple. Now the question is not, which one is the better car, because in this case obviously amd is the ferrari and intel is the nissan sentra. However, what's the asking price for each of these automobiles? Now, let me show you the momentum of this stock, because this will really show you how different they are. As you can see right here for the past three months amd almost a 10 percent increase while intel is at 11.9 percent, decrease the literally headed in opposite directions. As far as the returns to the investors, which is not a good sign for intel, but on the other hand, it might indicate that the price is becoming even more attractive because intel is no slouch.
All you need is to take a look at the margins to see that intel actually can make a lot of money. They have a gross profit of 54 percent, maybe that 44.6 and net income of 24 that is extremely high for a company that actually makes physical products. Now, on the other hand, for amd the gross profit is about 10 percent lower. The ebitda is 19 versus 44.
For intel and the net income margin is 25.24, which is actually a little bit higher than the net income margin for intel. That's usually a case of r d expenses. Actually, that's a good sign for intel because it might mean that intel is throwing way more money on rnd and capex than amd, which is a really interesting indicator for the future, so might not be dead in the water yet hold on huge fan of amd. But i think intel still has a shot check it out, but you do have to take into account what we're seeing on the screen right now, which is the growth.
The potential, as you can see, intel grew their business by a whopping 2.6 last year and their ebitda actually went down by five and a half percent. Now, if you go across the board, look at amd, they grew their business by 57.6 and even the growth was 107, so one company is growing insanely fast. The other one is on the slope downhill. That obviously explains why amd is priced so much higher than intel, but is this the only indicator you should be looking at is growth not necessarily it's an important indicator, but it is definitely not the main story here.
There's other stuff. You need to take into account. This is one, for example. Intel is actually giving out dividends.
The dividend yield for the next year is supposed to be two point. Forty seven percent. That's cash. You don't have that name. The amd is not a dividend company. So if there's one thing, you should consider if you're getting an intel stock, you're going to be getting dividends, which you will not be getting in amd and that's when you make a comparison on which is the better stock. This cash flow needs to come into account as well, which most people forget, and now, let's take a look at the financials, and this is going to be very interesting, so you have intel versus amd. One is priced at 77 billion dollars annual revenues, the other one is at 11.4 billion revenues, and this is where you see the huge difference.
This is a 100 billion dollar company based on 11 billion in sales, so 10x sales. On the other hand, this company is priced about 200 billion on 77 sales, which means about 3x, so three excels versus 10x sales. This is a really good example of how much investors prefer md to intel now. Look at these numbers because this is about to get interesting now you know me and i'm a huge fan of amd, but i'm about to show you something really important.
You have to see what intel is actually doing here. They're definitely lagging behind right now, but look at this. They have way more firepower than amd and when they say firepower, i mean r d expenses and capex. So if you look at this chart right here, intel spends about 13 and a half billion per year.
On average, on r d, which is way higher than amd, which is pushing 2 million average lately for the last few years, so that's really huge difference when you can 7x, which is exactly what's going on here, 7x, your r d expenses versus your competitor. That means people should not be writing you off right away and again huge fan of amd. I think it's over 100 stock. I think it's 117.
I think it has a lot more runway, but intel at 7x r d expenditure is definitely competitor. You can't just write off and say: well, it's a dinosaur. It's way too soon for that and speaking about firepower. Look at what's going on with the cash intel is sitting on total cash and short-term investments, which is pretty much the same as cash 22.4 billion dollars amd is at 3.1.
So again, we have 7x more firepower, not only aren't the expenses, but also cash, which means that this giant might be hibernating, but it has a lot more firepower than this new kid who's been tearing it up lately and now, let's talk about financial stability beyond just The firepower so intel is looking at 100 billion dollars in total assets versus 71 billion in total liabilities. Now, if you take out goodwill from here, because goodwill is definitely not a real asset, you're talking about 130 billion of assets versus 71 billion in liabilities, which means they're pushing the 2x ratio. On the other hand, if you look at amd you're, looking at total assets of 10 billion dollars, which is 10x smaller than what you have at intel, however, look at the liabilities here. Liabilities are 3.57, so at this stage you would think that amd is actually better. Positioned 357 versus 10 means they're two and a half times, and even if you take out the goodwill, that's about two and a half ratio, so their financial stability seems to be on par with intel might be even a little bit better. Now again, let's go back to firepower. Intel doesn't really grow, at least not lately. It's been doing about 20 billion in net income for the past two or three years.
On the other hand, amd is looking at anywhere from 2.4 to 2.8 for the past two years. So it literally is 10x more net income, again more firepower for intel compared to amd. However, here's where it really comes out, the capex expenditure for intel is about 15 billion per year. However, if you take a look at amd, the capex expenditure is about 300 million dollars.
If this is not firepower, i don't know what is because this is literally insanely different. These companies are in the completely different ball game. This company spends more on capital expenditure than this company will spend in 20 years. They do it in a single year.
Combine that with the increased r d expenses, that's a lot more fire, adding to it the cash they have a lot more fire power. Now, of course, there's a lot of inefficiencies with intel. Obviously this is not a 100 net. All fire power, this counting intel as it has been as a dinosaur of irrelevance - i think, is way too premature, so check this out.
This is really interesting. On the one hand, you have a company that doesn't really grow 72. 77 77, so intel is making anywhere from 70 to 80 billion per year depends on the year, but it doesn't really change. It doesn't grow, it's completely stagnant.
On the other hand, amd is going up like crazy from 6 to 9 to 11.. So this is a massive growth pattern now, obviously, this is heavily induced by covid, no doubt, but intel doesn't really show any impact as far as covet growing its business beyond expectations. It took a little bit of a boost, but on the other hand, they were making 70 billion per year even before, while amd was at five and six, so amd's business doubled because of the covert issue, but intel just got another 10 boost, which means, if there's A reopening, if there's a going back to normal, whatever normal is that happens, amd is looking at a bigger risk than intel, inter looking about 10 versus amd looking at half their business. So that's a lot of issues here that you need to consider now.
I want to caveat this with saying i'm a huge bull of amd, i'm just saying: if you think that intel are done and it's irrelevant, i think you should think again, because if i'll show you the dcf you'll see that this company still has a lot of Value, especially at this price, so the first thing we use here is three percent annual growth for the next five years. The other thing we use is 90 billion dollars in capex investments, capital expenditure, investments for the next five years. We use the 21 corporate rate, but i'm assuming it will go up. That's why we use nominal rate and not effective rate just to edge against the future increase of tax if it ever happens now. The other thing you might notice here is the usual 10 discount rate. I know we can use a lower rate, but i want to keep it conservative. We use four percent perpetual growth and what we got is something very interesting: 58.9 dollars for the perpetual approach. 78 dollars for the ebitda approach, so no matter how you spend it, this company at 56 dollars is still undervalued and, if you average them out, which is something i personally like to do.
You get a blended average of 68 and a half dollars for the stock, which gives it about 22 under valuation. Now i've been vocal before about the fact that amd is a 117 dollar stock versus the current 90. It still has 27 more dollars to run. It is extremely undervalued, in my opinion, but this was just made to show you that intel is not, then the water that intel is still undervalued.
It has solid fundamentals and it still has 21 22 more to give. So if you hear people talk about intel being dead in the water and completely worthless as an investment, here's proof that it's not it's all about the quality of the deal. So thank you for joining me again. Thank you for the channel members and the patrons we actually have another zoom call today in half an hour which i have to jump on literally right now to get ready, i'll, see you there in a second or i'll, see you tomorrow in my next video.
Thank you so much later.
It most likely just a matter of time before intel is back on top, and if history shows, then that time is probably soon
Intels new chip design / core layout + DDR5. AMD has already said they are going the same route, so they could easily be playing catchup to intel again after the kinks are worked out
I regret selling my Amd stock at 4 dollars which I bought at 2. Because my wife had died I lost interest in all money. Had bought nvda for 5. Sold again for sane
Same reason. If I had kept both I would have had 1.2 million on both. Well when somebody close dies you loose interest in money. I did not make hardly any money due to this hardship.
Well that is life. I gained different knowledge more value than this physical world. Tom I love your analysis.
Part of the short interest is likely to be short AMD long XLNX arbitrage. I wrote a short post not long ago on my FB page re: AMD. Also some of the figures such as R&D and capex cannot be directly compared as AMD is a fabless company whereas Intel is an IDM. Some of the Intel capex and R&D will be for manufacturing, whereas AMD has essentially outsourced this to TSMC.
Cap ex isn't as bad as it seems. AMD doesn't have a fab to sink billions into, they use TSMC. Intel runs their own fab that is far behind TSMC.
If intel doesnt grow anymore it will go horizontally forever. Dividends are fine, but if you're young the 3% yearly divident income is too less in contrast to the yield in growth stocks. Even if Intel will lose less revenue in the coming years, AMD will grow back stronger in revenue and (hopefully) in share prices afterwards.
This may change sometime in the coming years, but all I see is greed and incompetence at Intel and the opposite from AMD. Until this changes, I have recommended AMD non-stop over Intel for the past 5 years. Needless to say, I've been well… very right so far.
Bought both of them at the same time two months ago: sitting on AMD's 34% gain while Intel stagnates at -2% but i'm holding on to Intel for sure!
You need to reconsider the r&d expense comparison. Intel spents billions in foundries which are inferior to tsmc and Samsung. I think the efficiency in their r&d spending will kill intc.
This analysis does not even begin to make any useful comparison. First, you don't even understand Intel is a fab business, while AMD is fabless. The capital intensity for Intel is not comparable to AMD. How people blabber on youtube, without even a modicum of useful information is beyond me. Then not a single point on product roadmap and visible revenue potential for the next 5 years. First, understand Intel is only getting EUV implemented now. The need for Intel to sink significantly more capital to just catch up with TSMC is vast, while AMD doesn't have to lift a finger.
comparing intel, a dead company, to a ferrari is an awful analogy and i dont mean disrespect but amd is making better chips than intel. when it comes down to it the stock market was created so that consumers get the BEST product possible. intel aint it.
Thats not proof imho, you just arbitrarily picked a 4% growth rate. Where does that come from?
I do not think Intel will grow at their core business, they will likely have negative growth.
The interesting part of Intel is Mobileye. But Mobileye is more and more loosing out to Tesla it seems (otherwise they would not need Lidars right now).
Despite that I see Mobileye as a legit contender for solving full autonomy besides Tesla.
Tom,
Another thing I wanted to add to your argument.
Isnt ASML dedicating more of their new equipment to INTC in 2022?
This is positiong INTC to become the foundry that Gelsinger is trying to achieve by 2024..
Just a thought
I agree about INTC's firepower. They have and had lots of money for R&D. The problem is they have not used it for anything that's has given them a competitive edge. The fact INTC could not keep up with smaller node manufacturing is reflected in the stock price.
That said, INTC could be a great turn around only by certain catalyst events. Outsourcing their wafer process for larger nodes and making better decision on acquisitions.
Agree with you. Have been watching the old guard INTC and IBM with special interest recently and have not before been a fan. I think we will see very interesting developments with foundries and smaller processor technologies coming from both names. Plus the government is surely backing them up. This could take a while to pan out though
Insightful analysis and perspective on INTC and AMD……both solid investments – AMD in favor, INTC out of favor yet both have value and positive potential returns 1-3-5 years.
Also there is a very interesting fact. AMD manufacters their chips in Taiwan. And with the recent threat from China to Hong Kong and their next target Taiwan, its just a matter of time . Thats why I dont put my money in Chinese companies or chinese related companies.
Problem with Intel is the following. Intel is like Nokia AMD is like Apple 10 years ago on the phone market. Intel is stuck with a huge manufacturing problem and they can't produce 7nm process chips to compete with AMD. If they manage to do this AMD will be on 3nm process by then. In the chip industry winner takes all. The technological gap between Intel and AMD cannot be closed unless AMD does a mistake. So Intel will continue to lose market share in the following sectors. Server / Cloud market, Consumer Desktop's, Laptops. Intel signs of doom as a leader a) They lost the console gaming market original XBOX had an Intel CPU, no current consoles have Intel tech. b) They lost the power efficiency advantage they had to AMD and ARM which is tied to the fab process. c) They lost the x86 IPC advantage they had to AMD. Intel always had better floating performance now AMD thrashes them. d) They lost the mobile phone market to ARM. Their designs could never compete with arm on power, battery life. e) They lost Apple as a client. f) They lost the AI market, sleeping at the wheel on GPU tech while NVIDIA was developing a great cloud AI strategy. g) If AMD with much less RD budget can produce better designs than Intel, it means they is a huge brain drain/management problem. This kind of problems are next to impossible to fix in a very large corporation.
So what i think will happen. Intel will keep loosing market share for the next 10 years unless a miracle happens and they will keep shrinking as a company.
Gday Tom just started watching your videos, learning a great deal much appreciated. Question, what site are you using to get the companyβs figures and short interest, as seems to be a few out there but some not as accurate.. thanks again for you info
Yo, Tom. Looking at financials is amazing, but with Palantir you are actually looking at their product(s) for example. You did none of that here. AMD is steadily increasing the rate at which they are snacking up Intel's market share in server CPUs. Which is probably the highest margin sector for both companies. AMD's products at this time are absolutely killing Intels line-up, in every category I believe. Datacenter, personal desktop, workstations, mobile (think laptops). Intel is trying hard to catch up, but it's gonna take some time. My bet therefore is on AMD. If they can keep going at the pace at which they're pumping their products' specs right now, it should be a glorious decade for them. They've also acquired Xilinx, which gives them the ability to do some manufacturing themselves.
Can people in the comments actually tell me (not that you have to lol) why intel is 'dead and AMD is having its way with them.
Seems to be the running mantra.
Intel is suffering the way Boeing is. Def more attractive price, but they're lagging so far behind AMD and other competition is coming
I would have called BS if the conclusion had been AMD. Growth now does not mean growth in the future. AMD is not spring chicken. AMD has done great in the last couple years and their product is competitive. Things change quickly. INTC can turn the tables again. Why would that be so surprising? Going a few years back, AMD was as stagnant as INTC might look like now. Twice as large a market cap for INTC but 28 times higher FCF. INTC is not dead.
Forget share price and price to earnings look at the company overall, itβs products and ceo. Right now AMD and Nvidia are what products people want.
Intc can be the next GE, a lot of wasted money on buy backs while TSMC runs circles around them. It will take 4 to 5 years to correct what poor management did in the past.
totally agree, I bought 100 shares of intel, how can you ignore the numbers, also who says amd will continue that revenue growth, what if amd plateaus at a number lower than intel's revenues, I dont see the big deal with amd
14nm+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ pretty much sum up intel down fall more then any spreadsheet can show
If we get back to normal AMD is not in trouble… What your are referring is people going back to work, that means more fire power for people that work and have " Money" to spend on AMD products