You know there are so many freaking bears in this market right now, it's absolutely insane, but the problem is not even the bears are happy. Even the bears are gloomy because everybody's pointing the finger at someone else like, for example, i kind of picture it like this. We got the boogeyman of the fed okay and i'm going to give this little example here then, i'm going to talk about kind of where i think we need to be when we get out of this example uh well out of this disaster, and through my example, Two different things here, but anyway, i kind of think that the fed is like the boogeyman who shows up every day in some shape or form with like a new report or a beige book or a meeting or an interview or something so that everyone in the Stock market is like oh gosh, what's the fed doing now, i feel like we are kids playing hide and seek in an insane asylum looking for different rooms to hide in, and yet you have like all these different board: members, waller and barkin, and powell and they're All walking through the insane asylum, like huggy woogies, walking through the factory yelling down to every soft landing, the pain is transitory. It's like it's terrible and like nobody trusts them.

It's like who's gon na walk up to jay pal in that sort of scenario and go. You still love me right, like nobody. No, but like they've, they've lost so much respect. So this is what the best asset class really since december, has been cash, which is what i said in january.

This is not the earliest on it, but it was pretty early with cash, because when i was talking about going cash, everybody's like dude cash, is terrible. It's an inflationary time and i'm like yeah cash is terrible in inflationary time. If you're trying to buy loaves of bread and gasoline, then you get inflated away. Then you could just invest in loaves of bread and gasoline, but no, if you're trying to buy stocks, cash is actually wonderful because the more prices go down in the stock market.

The more shares you can buy, so you actually get more with your cash, which actually means the purchasing power of your cash went up not down so yeah. The purchasing power of your cash can go way up in an inflationary time. How weird is that to think about right kind of crazy, so this all kind of like then leads to this, this concern of like okay, well but kevin like it. Just we just keep going down.

How do we get out of this? Well, obviously, the most important thing that needs to end as soon as possible is inflation and we're hoping that the cpi report on wednesday does that. But here's the thing that we've really got to consider what companies are actually going to pick up and take off once we get through inflation. I want to reiterate this because i think sometimes we think that, because we've been living with this fear of inflation for essentially two years now, i think we kind of have this impression that no no, no, like inflation, doesn't just go away. I want to just remind uh all of us like where, where were we the last 40 years with inflation, we're doing this with inflation, a straight down line, in fact, so much so that you know zero might be like right here and uh.

Europe might be like right here right: europe was dealing with almost negative inflation kind of like japan, they're almost fighting deflation and that's why they have negative or had negative, yielding rates, whereas we were getting so close to zero. We were just talking about potentially negative, yielding rates right, but the problem with inflation is when we have this 40-year period of deflation thanks to technology and globalization. Now, all of a sudden, you have these beliefs that that's it, the hot air balloon of inflation, which is kind of like i mean just picture it imagine. This is like a little balloon right here with a little bucket, okay, and so it's it's kind of like trying to go in for a landing over here.

This is the path it's on. The problem is you get over here towards the back end, and so what do you get over here? Well, you get coveted 1.0 uh stimulus right. This is coveted 1.0 and it pops the balloon up to a new level which is kind of wild and then the balloon kind of falls a little bit which, literally, if you go back and look at the cpi stats, you will see the balloon come back down Again a little bit, but then what props the balloon up again? Well, you get delta that props it up. Then you get omicron that pops it up, props it up, and then you get war that props it up.

So these are like huge, huge reasons and so the balloon kind of feels like it's up here right now and everybody's gon na, hopefully cheer the fact that maybe the balloon will come down a little bit on wednesday. But it's still going to be way higher than where it ever has been before right. This sort of madness makes people very upset, though, and not trust the fed. When the fed says oh inflation is transitory.

We still believe it's transitory, which they kind of reiterated this weekend, because if you look at the five-year break, even it's down to 3.12, you look at the uh spreads between the twos and the tens. You're at 45 basis points well far away from inversion. Uh you've got a plummeting of inflation expectations. This morning you did have a report out by the new york fed, but i'll tell you this one.

The media picked up totally opposite and i'm not trying to be like you know, mr like, oh, i only see things with rose-colored glasses here i realized we have problems okay, but the media picked up. Oh, my gosh inflation expectations rose this morning because of the new york fed survey and that's bad right. We don't want inflation expectations to go up because, as inflation expectations get unanchored well, then the fed has to get more aggressive right, and so here's, like actually the report. It says median inflation expectations decreased in april at the one year horizon from 6.6 in march to 6.3.

That actually means in the short term. Consumers are expecting inflation to decelerate, but that's not what the media picked up on, because bad news sells right like having the banner bitcoin drops below 32k. That gets eyeballs people like oh, my god, the world is ending, it's all, just so frustrating, but anyway, the three year, inflation expectations rose by point two percent to three point: nine percent. Okay.

So what's the headline that everybody's getting inflation expectations deteriorate? What like? What? What like the one-year inflation expectations, fell, 0.3 percent to 6.3 and you had a slight move up in the three-year inflation expectations to only 3.9, which nowadays is actually relatively low right, but that's of course, the headline they move with. So i don't actually think that is a really big deal. It's a bad, it's bad when all of a sudden you're like one year, inflation expectations and your longer term, once everything just moves up together and consistently because so far we've had very stable inflation expectations, and i think that is just a nonsensical kind of report. But again those headlines help drive the market down more.

So what do we got ahead of us and what are the best companies to potentially get us out of this disaster? Well, first of all, a don't forget: 2022 is going to be the biggest year that sucks like if you come out of 2022 profitable. That is a phenomenal blessing and i hope that all of us can come out of 2022 profitable. I believe the way to do that is actually going longer now to actually getting into shares, ideally shares, not options. I do play options.

Sometimes i generally think they're a very bad idea, though, because they're very, very risky and it's more kind of gambler's mentality, so keep that in mind when you're playing options, even if you're selling options there's no real, like guaranteed safety play. So what do we got to know going forward regarding companies? Well, what we got to know about companies going forward is, in my opinion, people are going to be taking the attitude of once bitten, twice shy, that is, companies like spax, i hate to say it so far: palantir affirm, matterport. You know lemonade like a lot of the smaller companies. I believe there's a high risk that a lot of these smaller companies are going to be in a situation where they're going to really have to prove themselves before people bet again now that doesn't mean we can't have like bullish, pops and temporary runs when we get A risk on sentiment again but to actually get back to levels where we used to trade.

On a lot of these, i think we're going to need real growth, real earnings and we'll see a slower growth, probably back from like the 36 percent retracement lines back to kind of like 100 and then, of course, back to new all-time highs. That's going to be a very long road of proving yourself as a company, i think again, the initial gains will be very, very easy getting back, but those longer term gains are going to be tougher in those smaller companies, and so personally, this is why i'm really Repositioning my portfolio to be more and more exposed to companies with what i believe will be very, very high growth, but, in addition to very high growth insulated based on their customer and in addition to insulated, based on their customer. Also, companies that are increasing margins remember how you get insulated with customers having a higher income customer right. Remember what visa mastercard in the banks are saying: wealthier individuals are spending more money, not less.

It's the lower income, demographics who are spending less money. So that's it like. We have to be in companies that are going to be able to prove themselves going forward, and so, if we're in companies that are still profit less again, i think we're going to have little bounces but longer term. Solid gains will probably be reserved for companies with real growth.

What are some of those companies? Well, obviously, i mean it's a no-brainer, obviously tesla's one of them. I do think that a company and this one's extremely expensive right now, in my opinion at least - but i do think a company like airbnb - could have real growth, but i don't know how much they can actually really grow those uh their their net income. And that's a problem: this is why you kind of want to have top line and bottom line growth right, because the more airbnb grows, the bigger the customer service, the more concessions, more competition, the more margin gets squeezed. So that's tough.

Google is much more attractive than apple right now, so uh. I do think that advertising is probably going to go through a like a lull where you kind of see like advertising, hit, hit a low and then maybe then finally get a boost. We're going to get a little bit of a delay in advertising potentially kind of sucks, because i'm a big fan of the advertising place. Google seems like it has both the growth and the advertising play built into it.

Uh longer term i mean i'm, i i don't personally believe that, right now, the best moves are to be in companies that uh that have succeeded during the initial phases of inflation materials commodities. I think that trade is played out instead, i'd be more considering a company and as much as i hate to say it, but a company like uh microsoft, because we've got a low, peg ratio. We've got phenomenal growth here and i personally don't like microsoft. I don't like bill gates, but in terms of uh, when we look at our peg ratios when we look at their ability to get through potentially a recession, while still serving businesses and higher end customers.

I think there's some real value here, whereas ecom, whether that's a firm or amazon, which are kind of played, you know linked together a little bit or etsy or shopify. These are going to have substantially larger problems as well as nike and lulu, and a lot of the famed consumer discretionary ones. I'm just a little disappointed about. That's exactly why i think my thesis that advertising is going to go up is one that i hold, but i'm also concerned because, like i'm looking i'm like, i don't know man right now, it seems like advertising rates are getting worse before they get better, which again Pushes you into okay? Well, where can i be where we don't rely on lower end consumers, less advertising higher margins? Ah damn it's tesla, but i first want to thank today's sponsor ftx us check out the link in the description down below and use that code meet.

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