Oh holy Shmokers. L The ADP employment report just came out. It is the precursor of the data that we expect to get on Friday which is the official Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report and wow, this ADP report was a shocker. Now look I Actually really like the ADP report because I think it is much more accurate than the government's version I Think the government's version has a lot of manipulation in it from seasonal adjustments and potentially bureaucratic influences that we don't know all the details to.

That's not to say the private report doesn't have any bias either, but I think it's important to look at both reports and mostly look at what were markets expecting and what did we actually get. And then look at the details and the ADP employment change this morning. Well let's just say it. What's the lead? Yeah, uh, the survey.

X Well let me first tell you the last report. The last report was 242. that was revised up a little bit by 19 000 jobs. The reason you do that is you get some more data and you're like okay, let's adjust the prior up a little right so you get 242.

Adjust it up a little bit to 261 for February February Okay, fine. Well now we got the Shocker The survey here was 210 000 jobs which was already 32 000 jobs under the prior report, but we actually missed that by about 30 percent. We came in at 145. uh, actually that's that's even smaller.

145 was the actual report? Uh, that is a Miss uh yeah. Miss up about 31 a 31 Miss 145 000 Jobs versus 210 000. Now we need to go through the actual report, but that kind of Miss makes me want to put up the sponsor for today's video. Met Kevin.com Life Get life insurance in as little as five minutes.

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ADP National Employment Report: Private sector employment increased by 145 000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 6.9 percent year over year. I Want to see how that compares? because I'm pretty sure that's down from the over seven percent we've been used to. So let's go right to that because I think that's pretty important. Pay insights Here we go: Okay, yep, 7.2 percent was the jobs gain or wage gain in February that fell to 6.9 Uh, for job stayers.

For people who are switching their job, pay growth was 14.2 percent down from 14.4 So again, no indication of a wage price spiral, but again, still a sign that wages are growing. Here's the median change and where you're seeing the highest wage gains. This is also not a shocker. 9.6 percent for leisure and Hospitality Services 6.9 for other education 7.2 Business Services 6.4 Uh, these are year-over-year numbers, so those are those are still pretty high, right? Absolutely still too high.

But let's go ahead and see if we can compare these to the prior month just so we could get a little bit of a look and see where we're potentially getting some of the softening. This is. Uh, this is the report that was released Feb one I Need the Uh I Need the early March report? Uh, okay, we'll get the early March report. Let's actually let's go ahead and look at Fab So here's Feb just to compare.

This is was the Feb report which would be the January actually better. It gives us even more of a comparison window. So look at this. Leisure and Hospitality was 10.1 Now it's 9.6 Okay, that's good.

You've got Education: 7.2 Same at 7.2 Professional Business Service is six Nine Now at six four Good Financial Activities Now Six eight. Uh, and it was seven four. Information was six six. Now it's six three and trade and Utilities was seven five.

Now it's seven percent. So you're definitely seeing that pay growth. Uh, slowing. It's still high.

Year over year. Uh, and you're seeing the month over month numbers inflecting. Uh, but they don't actually give us the month over the month numbers right? The way you have to kind of think about this is a chart where it's like pay growth went up and then what you're trying to do is you're trying to pull down this moving average and then you're comparing to it year over year, right? And when this starts going down, it takes a year for you to actually kind of start seeing that pull down. So it's like you're pulling down on a 12-month moving average so you're not expecting to see very, very quick declines.

So I think this is good across the board. I Don't think there was any sector here that was positive. The only sector that was flat compared to January was education. and again, that's year over year on on your moving average that you're trying to Joint down, right? Uh, so so in my opinion, that's actually a good thing.

So again, this is the EDP report for March I Want to go through as well the projections for Friday for the Uh employment report that'll be released at 5 30 a.m I'll be traveling uh on. Friday So I will be streaming it live As usual. we'll be streaming it via Stream Yard. So shout out to Stream Yard uh Kevin.com But what I really want you to think about is uh, the fact that the Jobs Report is very important because the one thing that reminds us of the 1970s is a wage price spiral as well as unanchored inflation expectations.

I Guess that's two things instead of one thing. Jobs Report is a consistent in my opinion with the softening economy now. I Want to show you what chat GPT has to say about our Jolts report from yesterday as well. Now that I think is actually really interesting.

So prepare for the Jolts report in just a moment and the chat GPT Response to the Jolts report put together not by me, but actually put together by a Goldman Sachs analyst. You ready for this? All right? So first, let's hit this number right here. So this right here is our uh, change in private employment. Where are we seeing job losses? Well, we're seeing job losses which we'll do with a pink color here in manufacturing Financial Activities Professional and business services.

Where are we seeing the bulk of the gains Leisure and hospitality And you are seeing some Mining and construction. Which These are some surprises that we're seeing construction for example, still booming. That could be because of some of the government stimulus and to the Inflation Reduction Act or the Jobs Act or the Chips Act. rather not the Jobs Act.

Let's see here: we'll get some more details here: I Like looking at this detail here: change an establishment by size. It seems like the large Wow. This is actually really surprising. It seems like large establishments aren't actually the ones getting as many jobs.

it's actually smaller. The smallest are the ones where the job gains are medium and small. That's surprising. You're really seeing the the larger medium and the larger have have barely job gains or potentially negative.

That is very surprising that the smaller ones are reporting the drop gains. and let's look at regionally, the South is losing the most jobs as well as the West. Wow, that's actually really surprising as well because I thought like Florida was supposed to still be killing it. but South Atlantic East and Central this would be like your your North Carolina's uh, West South Central I'm assuming that would be like Oklahoma Texas uh Anyway, negatives over here.

the Midwest is actually where you're getting the job gains as well as the Northeast. Now this could be your Idaho Ohio uh uh, potentially because of jobs data and then you've got the Northeast over here. All right, that's interesting now. What did Chachi PT have to say? Now this was mind-blowing in my opinion.

So Chat: GPT Basically got fed the Joltz data and take a look at this. This is an analyst report from Goldman Sachs here: Goldman Sachs Was just released this this morning. I fed Chachi PT with a selection of Jolt's data and asked her whether the Jolt's data was consistent with the decelerating or accelerating economy. This is what it came up with: Colon: We are on borrowed time.

What? I I Don't want to hear that. Don't tell us we're on borrowed time. That's a terrible thing to say, but uh, that's what they said. So let's see why They think, uh, we're on a borrowed time.

Uh, it, uh, it's a little scary. So what do we have here? This data is more okay. They fed it in and it says this data is more consistent with a decelerating economy. A decelerating economy is typically characterized by a Slowdown in growth, and the data provided indicates several signs of such a Slowdown This is Chat Gpt's response, folks.

It says a decrease in jail job openings total private job openings decreased 559 000 from January to February suggesting fewer opportunities, fewer opportunities for job Seekers decrease in hires indicating companies might be more cautious about expanding and a decrease in layoffs. Uh, it would be usually a positive sign for the economy, right? However, when combined with the decrease in job openings and hirings, it could suggest that companies are more hesitant to let employees go due to the uncertainty of finding new hires in a potentially slowing economy. Chat Jpt suggesting uh oh, maybe the FED is doing a little bit too much over tightening. So with that said, make sure you come back to the Friday Jobs data report.

But this ADP report suggests slowing wage inflation. no wage price spiral. It does suggest that the FED may be over tightening and we could be surprised to the downside with how quickly jobs growth plummets and how quickly the unemployment rate. Rises Remember what Elizabeth Warren said The Feds projecting one percent increase in unemployment.

Well, usually after a one percent increase, you end up getting two and that ends up hurting more. Gain the lead. Yeah, wrong button. Lost the lead.