Hey everyone welcome back to another early live stream. Uh bloomberg took the words right out of my mouth when they gave us another bloomberg terminal code. This time it was nap n, a double p. Unfortunately, it just disappeared.

Otherwise, i would like to have shown it to you. That's what i feel like, though anyway, so we've got inflation numbers coming out, uh literally in about 60 seconds, so this should be pretty fun uh the numbers that we are expecting. Let's take a look at what we're expecting. We have first things.

First, we've got month over month, uh the expectation is point eight year over year. The expectation is uh point: seven, nine and uh year over year, excluding food and energy. We are expecting uh a 6.4. So this uh data coming out here in uh just a moment here so uh it should be fun uh.

We were looking for that rise in february, we're not expecting to this uh. This number to be uh the real shock and awe that we're going to be getting uh next uh next month. That's gon na be the real fun one when, when oil really starts pricing, things up and again we're looking for point, eight point: eight is the expectation. Let's see what we get we're looking right here, all right, it is time and we got where.

Is it nothing? Yet here we go here, we go still nothing come on well. Well, they still got 30 seconds technically how many people are doing this right now come on, i'm just sitting here refreshing for the first minute and look like an idiot point: eight percent. It came in at expectation and seven point nine headline number literally exactly at expectation. Uh x, food and energy also came in at expectation.

Don't worry it's not rigged at all uh wow. That is absolutely incredible. It literally nailed it uh largest increase since uh august of uh 1982. So that'll be your sort of headline news that we'll hear that sort of nonsense all the time uh, let's go, take a look at the actual numbers here, because the numbers to me is is where, where the fun is so i i like to look at the Month so, let's scroll over here just past the report a little bit and we're going to go over here and see what we got here.

Okay, these are going to be month-over-month changes here on the right side, so this tiny little number on the right uh. This is going to be what we want to look at, because it'll give us sort of that. Month-Over-Month look at those individual categories, and that is something that i want to see right now, so we got uh. Let's see here individual categories, let's get a little closer here all right, so we've got food coming in one percent month over month.

All items point eight, and this is what was expected. So we literally nailed the expectation which is really good. I didn't come in high. Didn't come in low came in at expectations.

This is all under food energy on the month over month, uh. You definitely see some uh impact already here, and this is just the start. You could see uh because remember how they take this data. What they're going to do is they're going to take three weeks or three week periods, three 10-day sort of periods within march or sorry within february, uh and uh they'll sort of average.

That, and even with that average of february, we still got energy up 3.5. On the month-over-month basis, uh fuel six point: seven percent uh oil up six point: five percent. Obviously we know these are up more like uh twenty to thirty percent, but uh uh. Most of that will get captured next uh next month.

Uh look at this, though. We've got actually some minuses here. This is good, though this is what we want to see. So what do we got here? Okay? Well, that's just linens! So that's we know that window coverings down 5.5.

Oh that's quite interesting. Now over here, you've got living room and kitchen dining room and other furniture. Finally, some more negative data here, negative point, two and point three dishes flat water, indoor plants, clocks and lamps, all of a sudden get a little more expensive. What do we got here? Oh here's another negative.

I like this men's, suits and outerwear. What do we got here? Negative 1.7. I, like the amounts of negatives that we're seeing here now, you're still seeing some larger bumps here, see that 2.4 2.5 men's uh men's pants and shorts, yeah, okay and men's underwear got it. Okay, so suits are getting cheaper, but uh, pants and shorts are getting more expensive.

What we got for, ladies here, ladies outerwear and dresses getting less expensive here after a big bump. Last month too jewelry and watches down 4.2 percent, specifically jewelry down 5.7 percent itself. In that category used cars and trucks, look at that folks. This is like the first time we've actually seen that thing go negative.

Holy moly used cars. Actually, when negative, that's amazing negative point: two percent new cars were 0.3 percent. You've got uh, we want to see services too, which we'll look at in just a moment. This is a is actually really good, because the more negatives we see here, the more uh powell in them we're going to be looking at this going see it's transitory.

Whoa. Look at all these negatives: this is incredible: education, communication commodities - all these over here: negative computer, peripherals, smart home assistance, computer software and accessory negative 0.5, but computers themselves still up right here. You still got that point, eight percent. So that's a lot.

Remember! That's all! In a month, uh make sure here, yeah see this is all on a month over month basis, newspapers up five point: three percent um, some weird categories that are up here: uh again looking for okay, rent, a shelter here, rent a shelter; finally, actually getting a little Bit more of a realistic measure here, because we know this has been lagging 0.6, that's more realistic! Lodging away from home! You got a little big bump here, a little big uh, including hotels, motels, still getting a little bit of that reopening trade after omicron really pushing those numbers up here, owner's equivalent rent still only 0.4. I think it's kind of ridiculous that this isn't up more. But okay professional services, negative point of one here: moving storage and freight negative 0.6 wow good car and truck rental, which had gone negative a little bit in the past in the past months. Over here is uh, is up about 3.5 motor vehicle repair up about 4.3.

One of the big reasons we're seeing insurance companies uh raising prices so much anywhere between 17 to 25 is because it's getting so expensive to repair cars because the parts have gotten so expensive. So more of that reopening trade here, look at that airline fare is up. 5.2 percent - although some of this could also be part of geopolitical concerns, uh, let's see anything else. That's pretty wild! Here delivery services, postage postage down 1.7 delivery services up 1.3.

Did i align that properly uh yeah postage down 1.7? That's right: okay and the other big negs. Here i see or or big positives uh none. What do we got here? Durables, durables, okay! Well, now we're back to categories special agreement categories; huh! That's really interesting: financial services, 1.2 yeah right before taxis. This is fascinating and one of the reasons i found this fascinating is not only did the entire report really hit the estimates properly.

Yeah i mean we, we were expecting point eight percent. We got point eight percent uh. We were expecting uh, seven point nine percent and we literally got seven point. Nine percent.

I mean the the survey was just literally on point, uh really really incredible, but uh outside of that i will say. There's probably i mean so far more good news in this than potentially bad news and the reason i'm looking at that is uh we're seeing a lot more negative sectors or sections than positive sections, which i like like that or maybe not necessarily more negative than we Are positive but i should say we're seeing more negative in areas that we haven't seen it before i'll reshow that here i just want to make sure i'm not missing anything all right. So when you go into these individual categories, the first categories, you really see your food and i did kind of skip over those really quick. So i'll quickly, look citrus fruits! You know a lot more expensive there.

Last month, i'm curious if we got wheat in here we'll look at wheat under the individual category in just a moment, because that's obviously something that we've seen gone up a lot uh food at employee sites in schools. Well that just keeps getting less expensive. So, okay, but yeah uh here the point here is look at this. This is the first time we've seen window coverings go negative since uh.

Well, no, actually, that's not true. We did have a negative month over here as well in oh well, always so! No, that's the unadjusted change. I don't even look at that. Look over here, look on this right side and then it'll give you kind of the last three reports here.

So that's the first time it's been negative in the last three here window coverings was negative over here or uh floor coverings. Rather, hmm uh we've seen this slightly negative before the men's suits uh, but uh women's women's dress is going negative. That's actually a nice one. Here, jewelry kind of interesting we haven't seen this go negative before so, okay, so some new categories going negative here, i wouldn't say anything really a surprise here i mean i think, you're going to have the federal reserve looking at this suggesting that uh.

Well, you know housing away from home, getting more expensive, uh and airline fares. Getting more expensive is expected because we just reopened from omicron energy prices and food prices going up is expected because well, we've got a crisis in war. So i really think this is. This is a perfect report, honestly for the federal reserve to just come out and complain uh about uh the usual about how here's just evidence of more transitory action.

If you actually look at the sticks here, you really see this benign movement in the first few minutes to the upside. The fact that we didn't like in a nasty way, get destroyed by inflation today and uh. Now we're kind of bleeding right back down to the downside. Qqq is down about 1.2 percent here uh in the open uh.

I did say that i thought there was a chance. We might end up having a buying opportunity just because of the amount of fear that comes around this holy smokes. Embryo just dropped about 10. That's i'm looking at that.

One uh i don't own it, but uh erj is, is an interesting emerging market play for me. So i've been i've been watching it. So who knows? Maybe that's an entry er, okay jd.com! I i am still concerned about the chinese consumer, so i prefer the american or other stocks over the chinese stocks. You did have a nice rally yesterday and some of the reopening stocks, so i wouldn't be terribly surprised to see a tiny little bit of a pullback here on some of these yeah, not that big of a deal you've got crowd, strike kicking, but we're going to Look at that one quickly, just to see if any of these were having any kind of special reaction here, but otherwise not a lot of green today heading into the uh heading into the open.

Here, let's look into quickly the house trade desk trade desk down a couple percent: that's fine and tesla down about one percent. Okay, big deal quickly, we'll look at what uh what the suits are saying. I mean i don't honestly know that it really matters what the suits are saying about inflation. I think we pretty much nailed it cpi, hitting expectations, may bring limited relief well, for once, cpi came in pretty much bang on expectations with headline and core hitting the consensus on both month over month and year over year.

Kinda leaves us pretty much where we were yeah, you don't say yeah that uh, that was uh, that was uh, fortunately, uh big, nothing burger in terms of potentially getting some kind of shock or another to the upside down side. I i you know, i mean even within the report. There was nothing that screamed scary. That would, in my opinion, make the federal reserve freak out uh.

Okay, so uh embraer says ukraine to not halt shipping in the meantime. But embraer sees delivery of 60 to 70 commercial jets in 2022. Okay, so i i wonder if this was less than expected, it must be because if they come out with a new delivery update - and you see the stock come down - that's probably what's happening. I know they're dealing with a lot of inflation in parts as well and then crowdstrike looks like it got a bunch of price target lifts, although they did.

Ah, they reported last night. Okay, there you go. That explains it, which should you know. Cyber security has been one of those interesting plays that hasn't actually gone up as much as you think it would during this ukraine crisis, one of the things that i will say is uh.

After earnings, we tend to get these bumps yeah uh, their forecast came in for 20, their fiscal 2023 2.13 bill to 2.16 versus 2.01 expected. So you had a beat over here on crowd that that explains it and uh eps beat on forecast uh yeah, okay crowdstrike. Just killed it, but anyway yeah. You see this weird thing where you see uh after earning stocks, do incredibly well for like a day or two, and then they come right back down.

I think the perfect example of that is oh well, square's, not back all the way to where it was but yeah. That's because yesterday i had a little bit of a green day. I was gon na say it was uh square because i was watching this one. Yesterday and i'm like man, this thing rallied from on earnings from like 82 all the way to 130, and now it's coming right back to 100, but it actually uh it slowed down its pain trend.

It did close at 98 dollars a couple days ago, which is pretty wild uh and then yesterday closed at 108 again, so it's just absolutely crazy. The amount of volatility we're getting in this market not healthy for a long-term uh for for a long-term sort of uh bull market uh generally, when you're in a longer term, bull market. You see a lot more consistency in the market, the uh extreme, volatile up and downs, not so good because they make it a little harder for institutional investors to stay institutional investors uh and provide predictable returns. Uh, that is, they end up tending to move to sidelines.

Uh we can check out our sponsor, though ftx, for today's video shout out to ftx get your free cryptocurrency linked down below. When you go to ftx, you can watch on the one minute chart right now, as btc is taking a little bit of a nosedive you can see. As the cpi report came out, we actually ran to about forty thousand two hundred and uh that that came off of about thirty nine thousand two hundred the uh btc price is uh bobbing around uh. Thirty 38.5 right now keep an eye on this.

There might be a little bit of an over over sell down. Personally i i mean the cpi report was perfectly on expectations. We really don't expect to see a u-turn, yet to the downside. My expectation would be until especially now with war, probably not until may to july somewhere in that time frame.

That's when i would expect to see a u-turn which i'll tell you the last time i whoo last time i expected a u-turn. It was supposed to be at the end of 2021, but boy, oh boy, delta, screwed, that when delta hit us in september that delayed everything now war is delaying everything. Unfortunately, the transitory inflation is just becoming more and more persistent and remember. We have those two types of inflation: the first set of transitory, now persistent inflation, which is the supply chain issues, uh and and of course, the issues related to the pandemic and base effects.

And then, of course, you have this new transitory type of inflation, which is high oil and gas prices, which i personally don't expect to substantially last. Oh in case i didn't mention it make sure when you check out ftx use the link down below and you'll get some free cryptocurrency when you sign up but uh. Taking a very brief look here, we've got uh. Look at that 10-year treasury holy smokes.

It's almost back to two percent. Just the other day i actually shorted uh their treasuries with a one million dollar bet and uh that that they would go back to two uh two percent very quickly, and i i'm actually surprised they're almost back to two percent. So great um, that is good, that's very good for that bet, uh, of course, if you want all my bets and moves that i made check out that stocks and psych link down below you get lifetime access to that and then, if brent here back to 116. Yeah, we're gon na see this this plus and minus five percent for quite a while.

I you know all these like doom and gloom fears, though, of about oil hitting 150 oil hitting what i eat. Personally, i don't think it's likely personally, i'm not too worried about that at all and and the longer we have a fed that says: hey. We can hold out on on rug, pulling the economy or pulling the markets and forcing a recession the better that's. The last thing you want the fed to do and they will do it and they can kill inflation in two months.

I promise you they can make inflation go away in two months, but it's it's going to be raising interest rates to eight percent and paul volckering. Us and inflation will be gone uh and when you really start getting concerned is when inflation expectations become unanchored, that's what the federal reserve does not want. That is what the federal reserve said happened in the 1970s. They said the federal reserve failed in the 70s, so the new fed looked back at the 70s fed.

It's like y'all failed because you let inflation expectations, run wild and run rampant yeah. Well, we right now we can look at the five year break even for uh treasury yields, and this tends to serve as an inflation expectation, graph and uh. While we did have a little bit of a surge here at the beginning of war, we are actually getting a second day of an inflection point to the downside. So i'd say this is all good news along expectations.

Thank you so much for being here folks and uh. Good luck, trading we'll see.