Hey this is tom nash, and i'm gon na be here with you for the next five minutes, making sense of this crazy market. Don't click, nothing, don't smash nothing and mainly don't buy nothing. Let's get this thing started as expected. It's 7.9 percent for year-over-year inflation uh following 7.5 that could get revised 7.9.

We go to the wayback machine to find a higher level of inflation. You're. Looking at 8.4 percent in june of 82 is your comp. Okay.

So, let's start with inflation. Yo inflation is still here yeah, even though we talked about ukraine for the past week. Much like that uncle that comes for two days and stays for two months. Inflation never lived for the past two weeks, we've been covering ukraine and rightfully so, but inflation is still here and what better way to get reminded of another cpi cycle numbers and the cpi is going to come out at 8 30 a.m.

Eastern time today and according to all expectations, we're looking about - you know 7.8 7.9, which is you know. Incidentally, it's going to be a new 40-year high, unbelievable, but you know look it's not going to include any of the oil prices any of the commodities craze. I mean that comes later. It doesn't really get included in the cpi.

So the real question is how much of a reaction the market is going to have here, because nothing dramatic is going to come out the cpi, it's kind of a no-brainer. We all know it's going to be anywhere between 7.7 and 8.. It's going to go up. We know that the fed's kind of 2 goal is now completely in the toilet.

It's just a matter of time until they come out and officially say that. Well, we're not going to hit two percent this year. We know that the question is look with everything that we just know and the fact that it's not going to be dramatic. Will the market overreact because the market tends to be very erratic, at least for the past six months? It's been very crazy.

A little bit of good news. The market flies up a little bit of not so good news. The market flies down. It's really hard to tell, i honestly, don't know, what's going to happen, but for me the most concerning part, isn't the cpi numbers which are kind of already.

We know about it's how the market is going to react, and it's going to be very interesting to see, and you have to understand that with this amount of money on the sideline and this amount of fear and kind of neurotic behavior, that's a recipe for a Craziness, so i'm not going to make any predictions. All i'm saying is i'm going to look at the market, not really on the report, because we know what's going to come out of the government. The question is how mr market is going to respond, and you know i used to have a neighbor like that. He used to basically scoop up dog from the street and leave it at doorsteps of people he didn't like in the building.

I mean we never knew what he's going to do. Look jokes aside, the market has been going crazy and there's no better example than yesterday. Mr market actually sent oil prices down nice. What seemed to be for no part reason why? Well now, we know why apparently uae the united arab emirates, the second half of the duo that is the uae and saudi, the two countries that pretty much control, opec or at least, are very dominant in opec.

That's fine, you know us is very dominant in nato. It is what it is. So basically, the uae came out yesterday and had one of its officials basically say: well, we don't mind increasing productions to reduce the price, essentially opec. No, it's a curtail.

It's not a free market; they basically determine the price of oil by you, know increasing or decreasing production and yeah. So basically he came out yesterday and said: well, it might be in our best interest to actually help you guys and you know make more of it. So you don't have to pay 140 bucks, you know a barrel. The problem is that that's only one opinion, the other opinion that matters is what saudi will say, but saudi apparently is not even picking up the calls from biden.

It's that bad. The relationship has completely been fractured ever since they viewed upon you know some political issues not getting into it. In this video i mean y'all, don't really care, but saudi and biden, not friends right now, so saudi isn't picking up the phone. So the question is, why did the uae say that and how plausible it is for them to actually get it done? And honestly, i don't know - and nobody does, but the kicker here is that i think the uae knows something.

Otherwise they would not have come out. Now and said this to look like the good guys, because look we're talking about some some of the world's best salesmen, these guys are really sharp. You know exactly what i'm talking about. These are the same guys who will tell you like a 500 dollar prismina in some market in some country, you've never heard about which you just visited for a week.

I mean it's the cost of doing business, so these are the world's top traders. They know how to play you and dominate you, that's their business and if they come out now and actually say that that means they must or at least there's a chance. They know something about russia, ukraine, maybe slowing down. I don't know it's just a theory who knows and speaking about people who know things ahead of time.

Let's talk about palantir, so there's a really interesting chart right now circulating on reddit and on twitter. In fact, i retweeted it myself showing you how, since the price has started going down from the mid to high 20s in november, all the way down to what we're seeing right now, which is pretty much the dpo price. The percentage of ownership by institutional investors have been going up quite significantly, in fact, since november the amount of institutional holders and talent here have gone up by 50 percent. These are the sharks who buy when everybody's panicking, so while retail is going out and basically selling out, institutionals are going up and i've said this is going to happen months ago.

I tweeted about - and i told you hey as price comes down. Institutionals are going to swoop in buy cheap, wait for six months to a year, sell it back to the same people who were selling and panic getting out of it. It's exactly. What's going on now, look to be fair, the pool isn't big for institutionals.

So a 50 increase sounds like a lot, but in fact it's an increase from 500 to 700 or 750 or 780 depends on how you measure it and when there's still 2 billion shares. So it's still like 35 36 of the float it's still dominated by retail and as long as it's still dominated by retail, we're gon na see crazy volatility a day what plus eight the next day, minus eight who knows but hey. This is just the cost of doing a dpo, a direct public offering when you don't do an ipo there's, not any institutionals in it. However, if this trend continues and institutionals keep pouring in the future for valentina looks very bright, but then again it's a slow process.

It's not gon na happen overnight and talking about the things that happened overnight. Amazon announced a 20 to one split yeah, a 20 to one split and a massive 10 billion dollar buyback. Now, look i hate gimmicks and to me this thing smells like a gimmick. I love amazon as a company.

I love amazon as a stock. This smells like a gimmick. Obviously the stock price went up, not a huge surprise and look. A stock split is meaningless.

It means nothing. I don't understand. Well, people are getting excited about it. It's like somebody's selling, you a piece of sand from your garden.

It's a piece of sand from your garden, my guy, it's meaningless! It's a stock split. In fact, i would argue that this sand from your garden is more meaningful than the split split means. Nothing. In fact, it just adds more retail to the action, which is not a healthy thing, as we just talked about in palantir now, as far as the share buybacks it's starting to sound like a warren buffett company, look if amazon is in growth mode, there's no way They would be buying back shares.

The only time you buy back shares is where you're basically saying hey. I have nothing better to do with this money. I can't grow, it's not a positive sign, buying back shares and splitting. It feels like a gimmick, not a huge fan of this move.

I would much rather amazon actually deal the real elephant in the room. They need to split up aws from the retail business. The retail business, which i still love, needs an overhaul because look factually speaking, the retail business for the past year have been completely doodoo. It has not been performing it's just fact now.

I do believe they can do it, but there's a huge difference between aws between the content world that they're doing between the ecosystem that they're building. Why do these businesses need to be together under the same company they're in completely different stages of their life? They need different things. A split is what we need to be talking about, but not this split, not a stock split, a spin-off, that's the question. We need answers to not a stock split and a share buyback.

My guy, you know just my opinion, like everything i just told you here: it's not financial advice, just my own opinion might be inaccurate, might be wrong, might be the ramblings of a madman. You missed that right and, of course, if you have any questions for me, let me know below in the comments and i'll try to respond as much as i can see you tomorrow.