Now though, we gotta talk Pce. We've got the Pce numbers coming out right now and the Pce numbers that we are looking for. Inflation numbers. That is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Personal income comes in slightly higher. At point Three, the expectation was 0.2 Personal spending comes in slightly lower at point Two versus point three. Waiting right now for the inflation gauge, which is the deflator month over month. year over year, we still don't have that number.

That number should be out in just a moment. Remember you can now use Buy Now Pay Later on the programs on building your wealth. A link down below you can get into those lifetime access for as little as thirty dollars. Uh, monthly I Believe it's somewhere in the thirty dollars month.

There it is. the deflator numbers. and we have deflator month over month matches 0.3.3 Okay, we got a match. Deflator year over year comes in a little lower.

Let's go: 5.0 versus 5.1 Expected 5.4 Prior Excellent. Excellent. Oh, we got a revision down on the prior as well. and we got a revision down on the prior month over month.

deflator from 0.6 to 0.5 This is fantastic. Good news. Good news. We've got Pce core deflator month over month.

Yes, we gotta Miss Point Three it comes in low 0.3 versus the 0.4 core Expected. This is great, especially on the heels of Europe the European Union just saw core prices Accelerate from 5.6 to 5.7 percent above the expectation of 5.6 in Europe So this is really good. Uh, I mean obviously it's not a plummeting, but it's below expectations. Thank goodness.

Thank goodness the last thing we need is more runaway inflation. Pce deflator year over year comes in at 4.6 The expectation and prior were both sitting at 4.7 This is excellent. So what do we have? We have a little bit more income for people. Fantastic.

0.3 versus 0.2 That is good People, however, are saving a little bit more personal spending comes in at point Two versus point three. Real personal spending Negative: 0.1 You have that deflator month over month matching expectations for, uh, your headline your headline year over year, coming in one tenth below. At five percent, we're almost in that four percent range. Let's go.

Uh, and you got a prior revision down again of that headline number to five three from Five four, which is great. And then that month over month number. Very, very important. Core Pce Deflator: The Fed's favorite numbers here folks, comes in under expectations: 0.3 versus the 0.4 expected 4.6 Uh for the year over year instead of the 4.4 expected.

And we got a revision down on that month over month. Uh, Core Deflator Number: This is fantastic. Let's listen to CNBC for a moment while I pull up the actual report up. the Dow was up about 90.

it's up 130. Not huge. Yeah boy saying that Bitcoin moved from under 28 000 back above uh 28 000. And then as you can see, the 10-year was 355.

it's now 352 or so. Uh, in the two-year Uh also has the yield has has backed off a little bit. but uh Steve said let's get reaction to this data from time. I'm excited to beat a fellow for the Hoover institution.

He's a good fellow and I love when we say a fellow. We got distinguished fellows Good Fellows That's a whole different thing. Uh Tyler Great movie though and former acting chair of the Council of Economic Advisors. All right, these introductions always take forever.

Uh, let's just go ahead and get to the report. it's pulling up. Give me just one moment here. Uh, again.

this is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. This is fantastic news. We're going to look at the actual Uh document now. Uh, it's darn.

iPad Stand by five seconds. it goes fast. Okay, it's right here. All right.

So here's the personal income. Uh increase 79 point or 72.9 Bill 0.3 percent personal spending Rose Point two percent. This gives us a chart of uh, basically the numbers that we just looked at. So if you want to take a screenshot, uh, Now's the Time Oh wait, uh, can I put a banner up? No I can't do it right now.

That's it. Anyway, all right. So uh, the increase in cursive current personal income in February was led by an increase in compensation mainly from wages and salaries, but no, no sign of really a wage price spiral here, right? It's okay that wages are still going up I Want people to remember that when you hear the words wages are going up, that's not a bad thing. We want wages to go up.

We just don't want them to spiral out of control. And by no measures. or wages spiraling out of control by no measures zero. There's not a single piece of evidence that suggests the wage price spiral is coming.

and I say that very passionately because I want to make sure you could be in a position where where if we're playing Halo together all you hear is this game. the lead. That's it. That's all.

I Want to hear gain the lead? Okay, like we we want good news. But look if all of a sudden this is what's the lead. you know we need to know about it. We need to get together.

We need to get you know off our Bud we need to do something about it. The good news is, we're in the lead right now. Okay, we don't have a wage price file. No, no indicators of a wage price spiral? None.

Uh. and and if you don't believe, uh, if you don't believe it, send me some data because I I don't see it just because Walmart raised wages because they lag doesn't mean Walmart's creating a wage price spiral. What it means is Walmart's gonna suck over the next year in my opinion. Uh, personal outlays increased.

Okay prices. Uh. let's see if we can get some price detail here. Um, let's go into the charts.

All right, related materials. So let's get the full release with the tables. I Want all of the tables? please? That way I could look at uh, the pieces inside of the report. Uh and see, by the way heart goes out to that journalist in Russia who uh, was just arrested from The Wall Street Journal Did you know that his last piece that he wrote was basically a hit piece on the Russian economy talking about how not only has the Rupal Fallen like 20, but they're basically running out of cash in Russia and their economy is about to collapse? Like it doesn't surprise me that he posted that from Moscow and he was basically immediately arrested.

Don't you all remember when they started the war in Ukraine they're like, um, if anybody talks crap about us, we're gonna arrest you like they gave a fair heads up I feel and it's it's still terrible. like I don't there's no way I think this guy from The Wall Street Journal should have been arrested. but um, but yeah, that was ballsy man that like that's some straight up balls right there. Wow.

uh and now this is what they're doing to him in jail. Kept brainwashing All right. So what do we got? Seasonally adjusted rates? Give me give me percentages. These numbers are ridiculous.

Here we go. This is what I want. All right? So February Point: three percent increase in wages, supplements to wages? Uh, that's over here. On the right side, you can see this.

That's all Point: Three percent that's good Proprietors Income Uh, okay, whatever. What do we have over here? Oh, that's gonna piss off some people. Rental Income of persons with Capital Consumption adjustment? Uh, one point Four percent. That's a pretty dang big move here under the rental income segment now.

Uh what? What's fascinating about this is we expect widely expect that the uh real estate price slow down so still to be seen in both Pce which Real Estate makes up about 25 percent of Pce and uh, and about 34 percent of CPI. We I widely still expect that to come plummeting down. It was just yesterday that uh, maybe it was the day before yesterday, but Neil Kashcari comes out and says the rent deflation is coming. rents are going down.

So so it's coming. which is good. Uh, all right. So personal income on uh, receipts on assets 0.2 Fine personal current transfer c8.5 Whatever personal consumption expenditures.

There's really no good data here. like give me give me like the full chart. the full breakdowns. This gives us some more headlines.

Okay, let me try to get some other supplemental charts. This, These charts are done a little bit differently from CPI so they don't as easily give us all of the uh, the various different uh components. Oh, here we go. What is this? Seasonally adjusted in a quarterly rates? No.

Okay, let me listen to CBC For a sec, we'll figure this out. I Would not break out champagne bottles. Um, as you know, economists are want to do quite often Joe But but I would say you know, maybe we can think that things are headed in the right direction again. Which is what you would think would happen after these very strong interest rate increases by the Fed and the question becomes, what does this say about how far the FED has to go when you have a good number? Maybe you can think something less is needed.

Pile on top of that with Tyler and both. Megan We're talking about which is what's going to happen to the credit Channel and maybe inflation? Uh, is is looking a little more optimistic this morning than it was at 8 29. All right, more. Oh, you're thinking I got it.

I Got what I was looking for right here. This is what I was looking for. Services: Okay, this is really important. So Services uh, seasonally adjusted monthly rate for February Services Point two percent Thank God Look at that.

Look at the last months folks. Thank freaking God Look at the last months. Okay, look at this. look at this: January 1.2 percent for Pce services December 0.6 November 0.4 October 0.5 And remember, if you multiply these by 12, you could see how hellish this is.

That's six percent inflation. That's 4.8 percent. That's seven point two percent. That's that's like a lot I Can't even do the math on that.

That's 12 plus 2 times 1.2 2.8 That's like 14.4 or something like that. That's crazy. Those are some crazy inflation rates right on on. Services right here.

That's exactly where we do not want to see services. Are they seasonally adjusted monthly rates? But look at what we have right here. Boys and girls: 2.4 percent. That right there calls for celebration and a mention that you should get 12 restocks using Weeble by going to Metcaven.com Weeble and by getting life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to Kevin.com Life This.

That's actually probably the best line out of this entire report right here. This is fantastic. That's very, very good. So I like to see that.

Uh, so really nice. Move there on uh. Service says: okay. Personal Income disposition? Uh uh.

Let's see. then you got expenditures. Yeah, these are Goods expenditures. So Goods expenditures actually came in at zero.

So we've had Goods deflation before. See this over here there in November December is your goods deflation? Here's Goods deflation in in July and August as well. But look what happened in in December and January and uh, or sorry in January you had 3.6 That's insane. That was why everybody freaked out about the January numbers, right? And then what do you have here? Zero? So you literally have no inflation in Goods right now.

And not only that, uh, but you have uh, uh, you know Services inflation plummeting I Mean this is absolutely fantastic. I Like this report, this is a very good report. Uh, let's let's take a look at how uh El stacos are doing. So let's go over here.

Let's see here. Okay, so we got the QQQ is up about a quarter of a percent. I'm actually surprised it's not up more than that because these are some pretty good numbers. I mean you did get a pop-off So let's go ahead and show you the strut bottom.

Uh, push that button. uh and then see because it's green. What do we do? Gain the lead? Uh, Tesla is uh, up at points? Uh, about up about three quarters of a percent GameStop lost the lead. They're a little negative here.

uh, anything moving largely. Let's see any big remote. Uh, big moves here. Uh, Dwac is still up about nine percent.

Uh, that's you know with the Trump indictment yesterday, we expect a lot of users to kind of track Trump on Truth Social. But but yeah, this is actually a very good reaction. I Mean, well, it's It's a modest reaction. It's a good report.

It's listening here that it might be just shown in the price or the interest rate of debt. Yep, I Would say if you look at the senior loan officer surveys, they suggest that actually lending standards have tightened already by the end of January pretty massively up to where we've been at peaks in previous recessions. So there is a question about how much more they really are can or will. Titan Um, and if you look at why the bone the banks in the U.S got into trouble.

It's not really because yeah, I mean she's basically saying and I've heard this argument quite a bit over the last few weeks, basically saying, look, the banking tightening has already happened like there's not going to be much more And so I think the way to put this is is very simply: this is a fantastic Pce report. It should make you very excited about transitory inflation potentially actually becoming true. Now, we don't want to get blindly drunk over this, right and expect that. That's it.

The problem's over. The FED is going to have to keep telling us that rates are going to stay high to psychologically convince markets that crap the Fed's Gonna Keep the foot on our neck and they're going to drown Honest in the mud of a recession. But that's exactly the kind of pressure that they need to keep on us to keep getting reports like this. because that January report which I think I said 17 000 times the January reports were a horrible month of seasonal adjustment.

Bad news. But this report this Fed report helps to show that that was just a nonsensical January seasonal adjustment Report with a big pull forward into January Now actually something we talked about with course members yesterday. We went deep into some thoughts on Google yesterday, but we actually noticed a little bit of an advertising hiccup uh, details in the course member livestream from yesterday, but we noticed an advertising hiccup in March thanks to the banking crisis and that could end up leading to some misses on revenues for some ad companies. uh, thanks to some changes in spending we were seeing in Uh in about mid-march So interesting, but that also has implications for some of the Uh.

the retail companies which we think potentially did extremely well because of. uh, the inclusion of January I I challenge you to do this. This is another thing we were talking about. We did a fundamental analysis on: Lululemon I challenge you to do this.

Look at when Lululemon's calendar for the fourth quarter ends. In other words, why did they do so well on their last report? Look at what the last month is of the last quarter. Uh, that they reported and uh, and you should go I see what they did here? Not not to cast too much shade, but it is. It is very interesting, very convenient.

So um, with that scent that gives us an update on the inflationary numbers. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and they're good. This is fantastic. No.

Goods Inflation soft Services Inflation and numbers that came in below expectations. These are great. These should motivate you to think about building your wealth in this. Nike Swoosh recovery by using the services link down below.

Whether it's buy now, pay later, or pay in full to get the courses on building your wealth, Check those out as well as my real estate startup Houseac.com Thanks so much! Thank you.