We're now two minutes away from the CPI inflation report. The projections are CPI .2 month over month. My projection is point one percent, month over month CPI X Energy and Food month of Month point of four. We are projecting myself I'm projecting point three percent.

Uh, so a one-tenth of a percent below both. Both of those are my projections for the month over month figures. The prior report was 0.4 and 0.5 so we'd be coming down with a 0.2 and 0.4 on both of those. year over year, we're going to see a nice big decline moving from a year over year of six percent to 5.1 percent, which is a fantastic drop down.

Uh, however, Core is expected to actually take up slightly from 5.5 to 5.6 so we'll be getting that data within about the next 100 seconds. Here, we're very excited. This is a big moment. This is A.

This is absolutely going to give us guidance on whether or not the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by either 25 basis points again or pause. This is a very big deal right now. The expiration of the coupon code is also set for today. We'll be raising prices on that.

uh, tonight. Now let's go ahead and look at the rate monitor as we get into the next 60 seconds here. So the rate monitor puts us at about a 74.7 chance of getting a 25 basis point hike. Next, the Federal Reserve does appear to be split on this.

10-year treasuries have come down, so that is a loosening of financial conditions. Though mortgage rates do still remain high at about 6.9 percent for the 30-year mortgage as credit spreads are widening. So that's actually a weird phenomenon where you can actually see uh, 10-year treasury yields come down. but Financial conditions remain tight and keep mortgage rates High For Real Estate Uh, However, real estate inventory has been so low, we have not actually seen any kind of, uh, major pain just yet in real estate.

Okay, we are now just seconds away from the CPI data. Uh, within the next 10 20 seconds here, we'll have the CPI data. We'll be going through the report as well. This is a big moment Again, we're looking for a market is looking for 0.2 and a 0.4 So drum roll and, uh, stay tuned.

Remember, check out that coupon code. Oh my. God It's point One month over month. I was right.

However, the core was 0.4 Uh, so core matches expectation point one on the month of a month. Let's freaking go. Let's go. Uh, year over year comes in a little soft as well at five percent as opposed to 5.1 Core matches expectations at 5.6 So expectations matched on core, month over month, and year over year.

Uh, However, on non-core we got that point one percent and that five percent year over year. That's absolutely fantastic. Uh, that's uh. that's a sign of not a devastatingly weakening economy.

It's not a sign that we're in this crazy recession that everything is falling off a cliff. It is a fantastic sign that inflation is continuing to Trend down upon expectations. We're not getting any kind of crazy, uh, reanimate nation of inflation here. even though, uh, outside of expectations? Uh, we're not.

And that's a big issue, right? We were worried that maybe in this report, we would see some kind of massive increase in Services inflation or something. Uh, keep in mind housing inflation is still keeping these numbers really elevated. So we're going to take a look at all of that data here. But this is a fantastic report.

So far. Based on the headline numbers here, we're going to get Wall Street reactions here as well. But let's get into uh, both the report and Wall Street expectations. Uh, or Wall Street reactions rather.

So let's jump into the actual report. and here we go. This is the actual report on screen. Now let's see what we got here: CPI Rises 0.1 percent.

That was my expectation. There were only four economists out of all of them surveyed that had that expectations. At that expectation, over 40 of them interviewed by Bloomberg were looking at point two. There's that point.

Four percent. Kevin was off on that one by one percent over the last 12 months. There's that five percent. Okay, let's go into the actual granular data here.

So it looks like uh, okay. Here we go here. We go here we go. Uh.

the index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly increase. That's good. That's actually a good thing because we do expect that to come down for rents, which is good. Uh, however, we still haven't seen that come through.

So there is that risk that what if that rental deflation never comes through? That would be a big problem, right? But we still expect it to come down even. Jerome Powell Just a few weeks ago, reiterated uh, that this will be coming. Uh, down. We do have.

uh, stock futures jumping. The two-year treasury yields are tumbling right now. This is fantastic. It looks like real average hourly earnings.

fall Point: seven percent year over year. no wage price spiral. This is fantastic. Uh, this is.

this is really good. and this is not like so bad to where. All of a sudden we're looking at it going. oh my gosh, you know we're at the end of the world in terms of depression or whatever.

Uh, let's see here. shelter, What shelter shelter there it is. Look at that shelter coming in at point Six percent. Uh, for the March numbers over here that's telling you.

remember shelter? It was actually up weighted in the CPI re-weightings to about a 34 weight Transportation services. My goodness. coming in at 1.4 that's high Medical Care is not reinflating. That's very good.

Uh Medical Care Commodities However, a little bit of a Commodities bump over here. Not so good. Point: Six percent. it's about 7.2 percent annualized used cars coming in.

Negative point: Nine percent. That's good new vehicles coming in at point Four percent. Let's get a little bit more of a detailed chart here while I Also get some more reaction here. Housing cost was the biggest contributor.

Wall Street Reacting to this, we're going to get the detail chart here. Get a little bit more numbers here while I pull this up. Remember CPI is uh, this is going to be a crazy day. I'm getting so many emails for bundle coupons already this morning because on expiration day we go through all the emails.

For everybody who wants a bundle coupon, email us at Kevin.com Let's go through the actual detailed set here. If you want to bundle code as well, you can email I Want to go right to the end in services. This is the most important side. Okay, here we go: Personal Services Thank freaking.

God Look at that point. two percent. Let's go. Let's go.

No re-annovation, reanimation of inflation, and services. Really important point: Two percent. That's 2.4 percent year over year. That's great personal care services.

Uh, however, you have personal. Services Overall, still hot but but kind of a line aligned with Trend here at about six percent so still a little high there but not running away. kind of like last month we had that 1.1 that was not great. Legal Services finally reducing to about 0.2 Last month we were a little high.

Funeral popped up a little. Financial Services Finally coming down a little bit here. kind of matching that previous. Trend Coming down from these prior higher numbers here, we want to see these: Services really stable.

We don't want to see runaway inflation here. Education services annualized at 3.6 percent postage at Uh, 1.2 percent annualized. That's great. Telephone services going negative Great fantastic photography is going negative.

Okay, well, sorry photographers. Okay, here we go. Thank goodness. Okay, this is one place where there could have been lingering inflation and that is in Pets Pet Supply Pet Foods you name it.

Uh, thankfully for pet services including vet services 0.5 that's more stable. at six percent, that's good. We don't want to see runaway there. video and audio Services Still a little hot over here at Point nine Rec Services Coming in flat, good airfares.

oh my. Lord Uh, that's not so great airfares at four percent? Uh, it's shocking to me how these Airlines can continue to price it or can continue you to pass on these high prices. That's pretty remarkable and unfortunately it's just a point six percent weighting, but that's still pretty high. It is down from last month, but we'd like to see that negative.

Motor Vehicle Insurance Uh, 1.2 percent for the month? that's still way too high Warren Buffett Was just talking about how insurance is actually helped by inflation because they can bring in more float, which then they can invest. Uh so Warren Buffett Actually cheering inflation for insurance? Not something we want to hear, obviously. Car and truck rentals down 3.8 percent Good transportation services still hot though. Health insurance thank goodness.

Look at those drops across the board. drops here in medical basically Services via uh Insurance hospital and related Services also negative Good Good Good Good good Medical Care Services Overall Negative negative, negative, negative good Trend Here of services This inflation we like seeing this. Uh, this this Falls right into the argument that inflation can end up proving to be transitory, especially once we actually get the decline. Oh, it's happening.

Oh, it's starting. Look at this. We're getting the rollover here. Uh, somewhat.

We're finally starting to see it. Rent of Primary Residence finally coming in at point Five percent. Uh, back to what we've seen previously. finally seeing the rent of Shelter number overall back to 0.6 Off of those really high numbers like that 0.8.7 I Think we're starting to lap some of the year over year numbers and month over month.

We're starting to see a little bit of weakness however, lodging away from homes so hotels still explosive growth here in the numbers, so still a little expensive. however. uh, rent of of uh, your your home is going to be a substantially larger contributor. You can see that here owners equivalent rents coming in at point Five percent.

Let me quickly see what that point four percent number is. That is our fourth number here. Yeah, that is the unadjusted Feb to March number. So let's get back over here.

We're just going to ignore this right here because that's the Feb to March number. Really, You're going to be looking over here. that's the last three month Trend and we finally see that moving down a little fine. Finally, that's actually really, really good.

So happy, happy to hear this. This is good. Then you've got what do we have here. We've got personal care products.

Wow, that's still a little expensive. a little expensive over here on some of those personal care services. Uh Services less energy point four percent. That's okay.

Goods Goods are still deflating. Well, not. I Shouldn't say point five percent is deflating. but other Goods Sitting at point five percent led by cigarettes actually alcoholic beverages away from home? Point: three percent.

Look at this: alcohol starting to really come in low in the last two months here. Deflating: probably because Kevin stopped drinking alcohol. uh sorry I was contributing to the industry too much and so now now I've stopped. But at least we're causing deflation which is good.

Uh, so that's a good thing. We've got education communication Commodities Good nice negatives. Over here we have toys, toys still hot. Uh oh, that's surprising at point Seven percent.

Sporting Goods Negative Point: Six percent Pet and pet products. See, look at this still hot over here at Pet products. That's good For companies like Petco they're still able to pass on. They still have pricing power.

We don't know how long that'll last though, given the flat household formations. Medical Care Commodities Coming in at Point Six: Recreation Commodities 0.2 Here we go. New vehicles coming in at Point Four percent Transportation Less motor fuels? Uh, Zero percent new cars 0.6 new trucks 0.3 used vehicles Negative Point Nine: So you're still getting that compression where you've got new coming up in price and used coming down in price? Uh, this is. this is fantastic.

Um, we're going to speculate on the Federal Reserve in just a moment: Apparel coming in at Point Three percent. finally softening after that initially warm uh winter that we got in January and February and uh, and you started seeing some more of those uh Spring sales pushed forward, which are generally higher or more likely to be full price sales tools. and Hardware coming in at just point two percent really nicely off that 2.7 from last month. Fantastic household.

Furnishings Coming in at Point Four percent, still a little high Appliances: for some reason at 0.7 odd, those are going to be like your coffee makers. whereas major appliances are still negative, they've been negative for a while. those more durable goods. And then of course, if we look at Foods we have a lot more volatility over here.

Food, However, look at that. food inflation. zero percent. Who actually believes that I Don't know.

Food's been so expensive. You go to restaurants. It's just insane Right now. How's coffee doing? Coffee coming in at negative point? Four percent good I Need some energy? Had a nice big drop over here at 3.5 All right, let's get a little bit more of um, uh, the uh commentary here from Wall Street.

And then let's speculate on the Federal Reserve shall we? Okay, so Chief Economist at Wells Fargo tells Bloomberg TV that while there are pockets of optimism in today's print, inflation is still far from two percent. You know I'm so tired of people saying this: I Really think they are just like Bears Who don't understand that inflation just has to Trend down to two percent throughout the rest of the decade. and it's fine. Of course, it's not going to go.

Oh, we're two percent. No. Sherlock it's just I Don't think people realize the FED is going to pull fate out of the genie out of the out of the Magic Hat The bunny rabbit that comes out is going to be fate. Flexible average Inflation targeting.

the Federal Reserve uses policies known as opportunistic disinflation to make sure that inflation Trends down over time. Obviously, inflation is too hot at five percent year over year, and that's why we're seeing rate increases to accelerate that disinflation. But does the Federal Reserve really want to destroy the economy? Uh, in order to get inflation down as long as it is trending down? No, of course not. So could the case be made for a pause here? Yes.

Do I think this is enough deflation or disinflation? Should I Say to see a pause? Probably not. I Would probably go for a 25 basis point hike and that's based on probably the Atlanta Fed Now real GDP P Estimate that is real GDP Growth Right now, it's still expected to be about two percent. That means we have plenty of room for the Federal Reserve to increase their tightness on markets. I Also think there is a large psychological effect to making sure that inflation is, indeed, uh, or proves to be transitory.

I Know everybody makes fun of the Federal Reserve obviously for saying that because they've been wrong for so long and it's likely that they could be wrong again. But when we take a look at this right here, this is the Atlanta Real GDP Fed Now estimate. uh, released two days ago, which is two days before the expiration of the coupon code. Given that today is the 12th, prices are going to be going up tonight if you want to bundle up for any of those programs whether it's zero to millionaire, real estate, investing, stocks, and Psychology money.

Elite Hustlers Make more money as an entrepreneur and employee. Learn about insurances liabilities LLCs You name it everything linked down below. Check that out. Obviously this video isn't personalized Financial advice, but I am a licensed financial advisor and run an ETF and have other affiliate links.

You can learn more about it. Meet Kevin.com some of which are sponsored, but let's go ahead and look at this: GDP link here. What do we have? Latest estimate: 2.2 percent. What's important for you to know about this, right here is that this is a tool for the Federal Reserve to say hey, look if GDP is still trending two percent in our last and in Our Last Summer of economic projections, we were looking at GDP at coming in at 0.5 percent.

By the end of the year, we still have leeway to actually raise uh interest rates and I think there's a psychological element to the FED getting to five percent. So I think while the odds of a 50 basis point hike are going to fall as a result of this, I do believe that we are going to see the Federal Reserve end up uh, uh, going for a 25 basis point hike I Actually think that is a good thing if the FED goes 25. It's a sign that we are further away from recession than people think, which is fantastic. 10-year treasury yields are falling about seven basis points we're sitting at about 3.36 right now.

This is reiterating that inflation is trending towards potentially being transitory again. I Realize that is offensive to some people to say that word because the FED has been wrong so long to your treasury yields now falling about 14 basis points sitting at 3.91 However. The fact of the matter is, if in a year from now, inflation is potentially under Target, we will look back and say Yes It ended up being transitory. It just took time, It took patience.

and that's probably the biggest thing we could learn from uh from this entire cycle is that every this, this whole cycle tends to take a lot of patience. Now, what I really want to be clear about Uh is what Wall Street is reacting with. So right now it does look like Futures are up about um 65 basis points on the Dow, 82 basis points on the S P and 107 basis points 1.07 on the NASDAQ. It looks like uh, a Powell's favorite inflation measure as of late is the core services in excluding housing came in at point four percent.

That is down from the point five percent in February, but it is still slightly elevated. Uh, that is. Uh, that is still a problem. So core Services excluding housing is not running away.

That's a good sign. It's not runaway inflation. However, we are starting to see a trend down. It's just not low enough.

yet. That's okay. We know that it takes time for it to Trend down the price of eggs tumbled the most since 1987, down 10.9 percent from Taylor. Swift's actually down more.

probably down like 50 from what Taylor Swift said she was going to help get egg prices down. Obviously that's a joke. uh. rates Market is uh, is reacting to this this weaker report here? However, we have the let's see here again Core: Services X Housing up point four percent not fantastic Uh, but again, still trending down so that's called the super Core level which does exclude housing just so we could really narrow into Services Uh, let's see here.

Fed Futures Pricing and still rate Cuts towards the end of the year from the Federal Reserve is still sitting at expectations though. For let me look at if we can get an adjustment on the terminal rate here. and then let's also look at the five-year break. Even stand by for that data five-year Break Even Data let's see what we have.

uh and then let's also look at if the terminal rate has started moving so uh, slight inflection down coming on the five-year break. even for inflation Expectations: in terms of the Fed's terminal rate, we are looking at uh Financial conditions by the way, also coming down, but you would expect that uh, less Financial tightness given lower rates here waiting for this terminal rate to load? Uh, terminal rates still pricing at 4.99 No big movement here, so still looking at that 25 BP hike. but it's it's becoming clear as day that probably going to be at an end of the Federal Reserve's hiking regime once they get to an even five percent. I Do again think that is a psychological level that they are going to get to.

Uh and I am not concerned about a 25 BB hike. Do keep in mind later today, the Federal Reserve minutes come out from the prior meeting. Uh, Bond Market is still pricing in 17 basis points of hikes that is leaning towards 25.. Remember what they basically do is they take the average of how much the bond market is pricing at zero and how much the bond market is pricing at 25 that average or the middle.

The midpoint would be 12.5 basis points, right? The market right now is pricing at 17 basis points which again leans us towards a 25. BP I Agree with that. I Actually think it is good. Get to five percent and be done.

Uh markets are. Let's see here. core figure coming at 0.1 percent was fantastic. Uh, that actually matched my estimate perfectly which is very exciting and so uh, we're looking at actual Market reactions here I Would expect that this very much aligns again with the Nike Swoosh theory.

If you haven't been watching sort of daily where I've been talking about the Nike Swoosh that's okay I still love you Uh, but let me make it clear I think the Nike Swoosh is basically where we have a sharp decline in prices uh, which we've had over 2012 uh and then a Nike Swoosh style recovery. Let's show you what that would look like Uh, briefly. This is pretty simple. what a Nike swoosh potentially looks like is you have a sharp decline which we had throughout 2012.

You bottom out in around October Maybe at some stocks you bottom out in July uh in December depending on the type of stock and then you have this this very long drawn out dare I say Nike Swoosh That potentially takes really just the next 10 years, not necessarily to get to Prior levels, but basically the Nike Swoosh just continues for the next 10 years we had. We really start a new bull market era. However, in the meantime you end up with a lot of this a lot of volatility that creates a lot of nervousness and pessimism. Each one of these drawdowns will be very painful and people will question is inflation transitory? Is the did the FED over Titan How terrible is the recession going to be? Uh, who knows.

but uh, my thesis is look for pricing Power stocks I talk about those obviously. Uh. and and I put my money where my mouth is. You could learn more about those at Meet Kevin.com You can see the links not only for the courses with trade alerts or the Uh, the ETF or the affiliate links link down below, but this gives a CPI a fantastic uh, read on.

CPI Very very excited about this so this is great news. Uh it. It is a little bit of a shocker that it came in low, but I'm back on over to Warren Buffett.