Hello, everyone, welcome to a PPI report. This is a report on producer prices. It is the seller's version of a CPI CPI is the Consumer Price Index. So the next one comes out on Tuesday.

Uh, you might remember last month, markets rallied after CPI came in below expectations. The very next week, producer prices came in below expectations. Those were two very good reports in a row only three weeks later. Already, we have the November numbers for PPI.

They come out in about 30 seconds. We are expecting a survey of a month over month PPI read of 0.2 relative to last month's 0.2 core 0.2 versus last month Zero. Those are the month over month and PPI final demand. year over year expected to be 7.2 Prior was eight.

Ah, buckle up because it's going to move the market today. All right. And here it comes. let's see.

Okay, it comes in slightly hot. The survey was 0.2 It came in at point three the uh, year over year number. It came in at 7.4 That's down from eight, but slightly hotter than that 7.2 We were expecting core PPI Which is less food and energy comes in at 6.2 So it's showing that actually core producer prices still coming in a little bit hotter than expected, but it's trending down. That's very important.

The last survey was 6.7 This survey, we were expecting to go all the way down to 5.9 We actually went to 6.2 so slightly higher than expectations, but trending down then. month over month number did come in at 0.3 rather than 0.2. So it's it's still showing that that inflationary pressure is still there. It's certainly in that in that downtrend now.

Which is good though because the worst case scenario here would be a missed the upside right? Like a you know, the trend moving up, the trend is moving down uh with the exceptional month over month at 0.3 Uh. But otherwise PPI less food, energy, and trade comes in at 4.9 that's under that 5.9 or 5.4 we had last time above the survey though of 4.7 against PPI core coming in at 6.2 That is slightly above the survey of 5.9 but again below 6.7 the priority final demand year over year 7.4 above the survey of 7.2 but below the prior read of eight percent again that month over month PPI A little. That's probably the biggest issue is that the prior to read was 0.2 the prior the the current survey was 0.2 We actually got point three. We do get in about 90 minutes the University of Michigan uh, consumer sentiment surveys so we'll see what's going on with inflation expectations there.

But I'm going to actually read: get the PPI report up Uh, in the meantime I Want to remind you that today is a stock market Exchange Ring the bell day So in other words I will be going to the New York Stock Exchange ringing the closing bell at 4 pm eastern time. After that, I will be doing a meet up outside so you're welcome to come meet outside All right, let's get the latest PPI numbers here. I Actually don't think they have their website updated just yet. They're still showing the October numbers.

There we go: November Rise Okay, perfect, we got it. Uh, it is also the expiration of the Pp coupon code linked down below for Uh December and we'll be releasing some new lectures uh, for everyone for free once we get into uh, the rest of December here, let's go ahead and look at the report now that I have it handy here. So again, we did get a slight miss here. To the upside, with producer prices rising 0.3 percent in November final Demand uh, 0.3 October or September Oh, they they actually adjust.

Oh, that's actually really interesting. They revised October up to 0.3 That's actually somewhat a good thing because if last month was moving at a point two percent pace and then now we're at point three, That implies a worsening, but what they've actually now done is they've revised October It looks like to point three. which means we're we're just stable. However, this is leading the uh, the markets to to certainly leg down a little bit on on this slightly here.

QQQ now down about 0.6 whereas previously it was up in November. Most of the increase for the final index came from an advance in prices for final Demand services. This is one of those red flags that Jerome Powell talks about, right? Jerome Powell Really wants to see us, wants to see Services move down. And unfortunately, right now, the only thing we're seeing move down are stock prices.

although we are starting to get a little bit of a rebound already I Think, possibly because the market may be realizing that there was an upward revision here on the last one. Um, by the way, there's a there's an individual here. Um, well, whose name we're not going to pronounce who says shut the F up with your coupon code which reminds me to remind you about the expiring coupon code. Uh, today.

Okay, continuing on here. Prices for final Demand less food energy and Trade Services moved at point three after Rising Point Two in October Okay, so there's again a little bit of that Miss We don't. We don't want to see that final demand Services The index for final Demand Services Advance 0.4 in November After edging up just 0.1 percent in October darn, we went from an edge to a full pump here of point four percent, that's not so great leading the November increase. and I do wonder how much of this Uh is is not being seasonally adjusted? uh, because of Black Friday and Cyber Monday Although they're supposed to be seasonally adjusted, which would imply that you know we're comparing to a Black Friday of last year, so you wouldn't necessarily have much of a shift there, so you know you should be actually seeing an increase here, which is not ideal.

Prices for final demand Services less trade Transportation Warehouse Climb point: four percent margins for final demand Trade Services Rose 0.7 That's terrible. Uh, In contrast, prices for final demand, transportation and warehousing services fell 0.9 That's huge. That's that's a huge move down there. So look at what you're actually seeing, you're seeing that slow transition to deflation, right? It starts with uh, people ordering less stuff less Goods Now it turns into warehousing services and transportation plummeting.

Uh, However, you still have trade services at point seven percent, right? So it hasn't that that deflation hasn't contaged over to all areas of the services world just yet. About one-third of the November rise in final demand Services can be traced to prices for the Securities brokerage dealing and investment advice which jumped 11.3 percent. Now, this is very interesting. One third of the increase did not actually come from uh actual uh Services related to product it came to Services related to Trading trading Securities related uh to uh to to to product uh or or cross-border trade or even trade within the United States That's very interesting to me.

The indices for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, loan services, fuels, lubricants, retailing, portfolio management, and long distance motor carrying moved higher. Well, that's not ideal you don't want to. Okay, this is actually a sector that you do want to see move down. Uh, so you are getting a mixed read here, which is not great.

I Mean we do have that CPI read on Tuesday Which if we miss on that, it's going to be a disaster. But so this is. This is actually quite mixed here. Conversely, prices for transportation of passengers fell 5.6 The indices for automobile and automobile parts retailing and for traveler accommodations also decreased.

How this is such a mixed report, This is quite incredible. Final Demand energy decreased 3.3 percent. Okay, Gray All right, let's keep going here. Let's look at the table here.

So in November Yeah, this is quite interesting. You could see trade up 0.7 total of 0.4 Uh, transportation and warehousing down 0.9 Although in August we had a 1.1 percent decline. But look at March and February 2.0 and 5.6 percent increase is two percent increase. Two percent increase I mean you've really gone from an era of of solid increases right here to almost solid decreases over here, and you're certainly seeing the numbers start declining.

So you're you're trending towards that disinflation, but you're still getting mixed bags and we don't really want mixed bags at this point. We want clear signals to the downside. and and this is this is not that. Not yet.

It shows you. you cannot be impatient with this. Market Uh, this Market is is one that just calls for coffee. Um, you know.

and and I'm either pouring coffee or Bailey's either one. It's basically the same thing at this point. Uh, all right, let's see intermediate demand for November prices for process Goods fell point nine percent. Okay, Goods so look at that.

We are actually seeing Goods fall right? and this makes sense. Most of the increases being related to Services Go back here just for a quick moment and it's one third of the increase coming from Securities trading and investment advice and then uh, wholesaling of machinery and Loan services portfolio management right? Okay, quite interesting. So Goods plummeting processed Goods for intermediate demand prices for processed Goods move down 0.9 Its fifth consecutive decline leading the November into a decrease was uh. processed energy Goods falling 3.7 Prices for processed materials, less food and energy declined 0.2 percent.

Good commodity prices coming down. This is good. It makes it cheaper to build Teslas index or processed foods and feeds Advanced and that's so volatile Foods though. uh, you know, for for grains.

uh, and for animals. and that one third of the November decline in processed Goods can be attributed to diesel fuel. Good. It's actually incredible.

You're seeing diesel prices fall with so much fear there was around uh, you know diesel. um, shortages of I Love the Zero Hedge tweet here. PPI Hotter than expected because Brokers somehow raised prices amid huge outflows and tomatoes soared over 40 percent. Uh-huh Yeah, that was really interesting that that one third of the increase was due to Brokers Hmm, Well, you know what they say about Brokers Brokers Make You Broker Okay, that's the disk to Brokers I'm actually a real estate broker I used to be a loan broker too, so I'm allowed to make fun of myself even though I don't think it's true I Think in this moment it's convenient so we'll go with it because that's what you do on the internet.

You go with what's convenient and popular at the moment. Leading the decrease in prices for unprocessed Goods was the index for natural gas dropping 15 crisis for crisis for crude petroleum corn hey hey, seeds, citrus fruits, carbon steel also declined good I Want to see that cyber truck get cheaper to manufacture? Conversely, vegetables with the exception of potatoes, jumped 43. Raw milk and non-iron ores advanced great. You want to see Commodities come down.

What is this? Cable network advertising but this increased also Advanced How interesting. Cable network advertising Time sales increased I'm very surprised by that. See right here it says the index for loan services, portfolio management, lubricants, cable network advertising, time sales, and long distance motor carrying also. Advanced However, prices for the arrangement of freight and carbo cargo Transportation plummeted 15.2 percent and the indices for broadcast and network television advertising sales decreased so broadcast and network television decreased while Network Television increased.

This is a Bizarro report I Think the big The big tell here is just you don't have a very clear and consistent decline. Uh, and it's coming. it is coming. Look, look at these numbers over here.

Look at this chart. So think about how uh at the bottom over here. Uh, when it comes to Goods All of these numbers are negative. All of them are negative here.

It's just services are still holding on. All of the goods numbers are negative for certainly the last two months and services are seeing declines. All right now. we're getting into footnotes: some notes about weights.

Okay, all right, let me see what the suits are saying about this. All right. give me a second here. So hotter than expected.

Uh, a lot having to do one-third having to do with Brokers increasing prices. Shocking to me, we have. Let's see here if I can get a little bit of, uh, some insights from what the suits are saying I Always like seeing that whoops so much for downside risks to PPI Oh great. Here comes the headline: Hmm I hate it when PP I misses All right? So much for downside risks to PPI The core reading jump point four percent above any forecast in the Bloomberg survey headline was also higher than expected and it all rather suggests the Glide path from Peak Inflation might be bumpier than hoped for some quarters I Know that I wasn't the only one leaning to the downside on this says this writer here: Cameron Cruz So it is a little surprised to see an Abrupt reversal inequities.

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that fixed income hasn't moved. Hmm, that's interesting. Is that true? I Would like to see that stand by indices across the board down about a third to half of a percent oil. Wow.

Brent is under 77. Oh how interesting. Yeah. Okay, well the tenure is roughly flat up about two basis points.

That's very interesting. Yeah, this PPI was larger than expected. It's certainly lasting longer than expected to Future slide yields jump barely. Yields are up like two basis points.

It's not a big deal. Intermediate PPI down to 7.7 from 10.3 percent and dropping below final demand of 7.4 First time since November 2020. This this is an interesting tweet: Hold on a sec. Yeah, PPI came in at 0.3 some parts of 0.4 above the point two expected.

Uh, this is the first in two years. Oh, that's actually quite interesting. So I I Do want you to see this chart because it shows you that the downtrend, which is good, Hold on a sec. Okay, this is going to take just a sec to move over.

Um, actually I can get it more easily here standing by full photo Kevin Yeah, this is an interesting one All right. I Did it can I rotate it? Yes. I can. Right here you go.

So in red you could see the producer price index for processed Goods Uh and then PPI index for final demand. In blue, you can see both of these plummeting right? But we already know that we know that Goods Inflation is plummeting. It's just now a matter of waiting for uh, services to rotate down and when Brokers are able to charge higher prices which we got in in this uh in this report here. Uh, you've got a little bit of a downside.

Yeah, I'm closing bell today in case you're wondering. I will be bringing the closing bell although I Do go. I'm going to head over to the stock Exchange here after this. Okay, it's all right.

So again, a little bit higher than expected. Um, so interesting. Just an hour ago articles say risks point to downside Miss on cork PPI Nope, came in hot. How unfortunate.

Uh, all right. So now here we've got an article: U.S Producer Prices Rose In November By more than forecast, driven by services and underscoring stickiness of inflationary pressures, this is true. I Mean, as we went through the report, we were seeing it. it was multiple Services across the board.

Uh, we can't only blame Brokers Um, multiple Services Across the board, we're still Rising PPI at 0.3 for the third month, up 7.4 for the year. However, that is. that is a downtrend, right? and that is good. Uh, down from eight percent down to seven point four percent which which is again, a good thing.

um, estimates. We're calling for point two percent and 7.2 We got 0.3 and 7.4 Data comes just before the CPI release. Cooler demand at home and abroad has taken some stress off Supply chains allowing producer price growth to slow significantly and it's true. still trending in that direction.

However, it's the services segments that will probably keep the FED hiking. But you know what we're getting. This is not going to change the 50 basis point hike in December And then we're not going to have another Fed meeting until February So you know we've got plenty of time for more reports between now and then. Oh, this is an interesting chart.

Let's go ahead and look at this chart. So at the top we have uh. contributions. You can see, uh, you have a negative negative bar in Blue from the final demand from energy.

Uh, blue is final demand Goods less food and energy so you're still seeing a little bit of Rise there. The big pump here though, is. look at that pink and uh, the pink segment. Final demand Services Construction is basically at zero, but final demand Services There you get a nice little pink bar there.

That's that's. pretty decent to the upside. and this was the month over month including top-line contributions. Top five sub components.

So the next sub components trade of personal consumption Goods Trade is a type of service uh, brokering, right? That helped, uh, hear less Transportation Warehousing because that was a big negative segment. Finished consumer goods Finished Consumer Foods Crude? Okay, yeah. finish Consumer Energy goods and just Goods in general negative. All right, let's see plug Elite Hustlers at the closing bell.

Uh yeah. All right let's quickly look at how uh, the Elite Hustlers course I think is actually a phenomenal course. It's it's gotten so good. The content we have in that is is honestly Priceless for for making more money as an entrepreneur.

Uh, so many lessons in it. Services will ever pump. Yeah, we got to get the Pp up. Got to get the pricing power up.

Oh what happened with Lulu I'll be doing a report on Lulu Don't worry, can you give a brief summary? Yeah, get the beer ready. Yeah. I actually am I'm kind of nervous I'm honestly I'm kind of like sitting here answering more questions because I don't want to get up and go to The Exchange because I'm kind of nervous about it. How correlated is PPI to CPI I would say they're very different, right? A lot of what we just saw in PPI come in hot was actually uh Services related to trade which have very little in my opinion to do.

They are an input cost. They are an input cost to products being sold and services being sold for consumers. But I believe that consumers and their willingness to pay will drive consumer prices more. And so I Do not believe that Hot PPI Services numbers imply hot CPI What they imply is lower margins for certain businesses.

Uh I Think businesses are going to be bound by by the market of what consumers are willing to pay, not by what input costs are for service brokers pretend they're all in their underwear. Hey, what's wrong with being in your underwear, Don't you? Doesn't everybody pour coffee in their underwear? Uh, if you're not nervous, you're not growing that. That's a good line. I've never thought about that.

You know there's so many people who hate. Uh I I Think there are a lot of people who have just had a very bad year. 2022 has just been a bad year for a lot of people. I Don't especially call it a great year for myself either.

It's been a rough year. Well I meet the CNBC people I Hope so can somebody let this individual I Can't say it otherwise I Have to send this video in for compliance. Can somebody in this video in the comments let this individual know why I'm ringing the bell at the closing bell. The dollar is weakening.

Yes, the dollar should weaken. The dollar is extremely overvalued. I've been short the dollar since the summer. Um, in the summer in.

In one of my trade alerts to course members that I said be careful the dollar I believe Still has another 10 upside. and if you're short the dollar, you're That's a 10 downside risk. But then it's going to plummet. and so far that's almost exactly what's been happening.

I'm not trying to Pat myself in the back. okay I make plenty of mistakes, but um, shorting the dollars is one. I'm a big fan of this. PPI look I think what? I Hope Okay, this is this is pure hopium.

Okay, pure opium. My pure pure opium. Why your futures tanking hard? Scroll to the beginning of the video and then you'll know why my hopium is that today I will hit the closing bell for the weekend and we will Mark the low or a low That's My Hope And then when CPI comes in glorious to the upside I hope that uh that that this sort of marks a near bottom I Know the QQQ is not at eight an exact bottom but but I hope it's the end of of this. So again, that's just hope.

but uh you know, cheers to that. So anyway folks I gotta go thank you so much for being here. We'll see at the New York Stock Exchange 5 p.m Meetup Take advantage of the expiring coupon code link down below. the prices just go up afterwards.

Uh, when those when that coupon expires so you get lifetime access, you may as well call up in uh and uh. We'll see y'all goodbye. Thanks.