Inflation and Market Crash - Cathie Wood VS. Michael Burry: Who's Right?
good morning everybody i hope you're having a great day having my first cup of coffee right here out of frame out of mine out of sight so let's talk about what kathy woods said and what michael berry tweeted it's super super important so as far as kathy would this lady went on tv and of course it's the easiest thing in the world for me to make fun of her i'm not gonna do it but you know she faced some tough questions and i mean she kind of apologized for getting it wrong but not really i mean look kathy is kind of apologizing for something she didn't say she was saying in the interview hey i underestimated inflation well in fact that's bogus because what kathy said go back and checkman this is that we're not only not going to have inflation we're going to have deflation because of all the innovation in her etf funds etf funds it's like cpa accountant oh shout out to strongman finance you know what i'm going to start saying etf funds just for fun anyways so she was saying that we're not going to have any inflation in fact she was scared of deflation and now she's saying she underestimated inflation that's kind of you know strawmanning a little bit the apology if that's even the thing so i don't respect her for doing that because she not only got it wrong she got it 180 degrees wrong but hey i've got things wrong in my life before i mean plenty of so i'm not going to lampoon her for that but also i don't think she's that relevant she's just there to promote her fund i've been also part of the kathy wood you know fan club and i kind of sobered up she just heard you know her thing is just to promote the fun nobody really cares about what she actually has to say so it is what it is however michael berry is a whole different enchilada now michael bury tweeted two tweets that i think went under the radar and they're super critical here and i'll explain what he actually is saying so michael berry is basically saying once the first week was i think that inflation is a transitory no it speak no to the moon if a moon is a dark and cold place so basically he was saying that inflation is not only um not getting better it seems like it's getting worse which is something we kind of all know because i mean nobody really thinks that inflation is neither transitory or you know it's going to end anytime soon but then he followed it up with tweet where he said if i'm not mistaken is that we're going to have christmas in july and then he clarified it by saying that there's a overstocking of even floor in van flory inventory i haven't had my morning coffee yet so there's an over overstocking of inventory and we've heard actually ceo say that if you listen to the target call they had a massive inventory problem they had just too much of it they overstocked and all this inventory is going to get dumped into the market right now because they're prepping for the next six months trying to set up for you know thanksgiving and christmas and this dump of inventory is going to cause a decline a temporary decline in prices essentially allowing for the economy to have a little boost as far as relief from inflation now obviously i'm not going to be here predicting what's going to happen nor what does michael berry exactly mean but if i'm reading his tweets correct and i'm not a michael berry fan or nor i'm a hater but it sounds like what he's saying is hey guys we have right now too much inventory at retail and this is going to be a major dump and the entire economy is going to feel the effect of the dump essentially pushing prices in the opposite direction july will be a good month as far as inflationary expectations which will lead to better results however long-term inflation is not peaked which seems like he's saying long term there's more pain short term we might have a little rally for whatever that's worth so i just wanted here to clarify what he i think he means um as always you know let me know below i'm gonna post another video today this is just me saying good morning to my subscribers and just clarifying some of the things i saw from kathy and and michael berry you know none of them is the oracle remember it's just the opinions of two guys which is me and michael and one girl which is cat and shout out to everybody if you want to see me in a minute do a second podcast this week comment below and let us know what we should talk about post any questions you have for us to talk about relationship advice stock market questions wherever post it below worst draft picks in the nba we'll try to make one more this week because you guys seem to enjoy it also make sure you go and subscribe to money talks on the new channel i'm gonna put the link below as well and i'll see you a little bit later when i do the actual video for the day have a great morning.
Enjoy your coffee and think about changing the lamp. You deserve it!
Tom what city are broadcasting from? Looks like the Midwest in the background?
Talk about google stock
Reeeeuuuuuu 🐎
Cathy Wood is the bomb
The high inventories is a myth. Yes, retail algorithms ask to rise desire inventories when delivery cycles increases, and some merchandise has increased, some are still low, go to Costco or Walmart and you will see. Commodities inventories are all low, and thereafter production is delayed and inventories will not rise fast enough to reduce pressure on inflation, at least not in short term.
I'm not a Cathy Wood fan either but you gotta take her "deflation" call into context. She calls for deflation in a 20 year time line, due to innovation.
Her near term call for transitory inflation is also because she said inventory is rising.
Her thesis is actually Rising inventory > traditional companies lowering prices > Lower margins for traditional companies > less competitive against growth companies that will innovate and push deflation.
That said, I don't agree with her on the basis of a recessionary environment like she calls for in the intermediate term, will also widen credit spreads and push WACC of growth companies up.
Steven mark ryan keeps talking about a flying spaghetti monster keeping tesla shares down …i want tesla at 300$ please
One of them will be 😂😂😂
Yes I distinctly remember hearing Kathy Wood saying that we weren’t going to have inflation it was going to be a deflationary environment. She was very insistent on that
Whatever position the fed is in, it's worse for Americans at large.
I believe your right as per Michael, However, if your a consumer and unless you really, really need what's being dumped onto the market, unless it's food and non perishable, I wouldn't bite and buy. Save your damn money because this honeymoon with the dark side is FAR from over. A good deal is ONLY a good deal if you actually need it. Otherwise it's simply spending without reason. So, be smart, be wise and SAVE your money. The End. Good-Luck and Good-Bye !!!!
I think Michael Burry is referring to massive sales which will be a bargain for consumers, I am not sure he is referring to stock market prices at all 😂
Palantir. I know you are long, but do you think this is the time to get back in, or is it too soon? Not trying to play the bottom. I got out of a small position in the 30’s, and I’m thinking of getting back. Thoughts. Full disclosure I have missed a few of you last vids 🙁
Technology deflation only changes what money gets spent on, it doesn’t change how much money is chasing the available things to buy.
we seens this in the EU right now. Inflation come done. But we all know it will not last.
Just a thought, Kathy is a victim of the Putin Effect. Michael on the other hand is just a Lucky guy 🤔IMO
The challenge with inflation is even though it is the devaluing of cash, it affects different assets and goods at different times and rates.
Nope she said deflation from all the inventory buildup. And in the first quarter with all the buildup- negative growth.
Tom totally of topic but who was your favorite of the Michigan Fab Five?
Amit made Morning Cents great.
Trump is coming back 🟢
I see a Big Bang in innovation coming soon!
So let it rock ☄️
Game changers can happen Burry.
Tom Nash great video as usual 👍
Cathie Wood has actually been calling out overstocked inventories for months and this was part of why she was suggesting we may see deflation. Now Burry says it and you suddenly believe him.
Cathie said she underestimated supply chain issues long lasting effects on inflation due to unforeseen omicron and Russia war. Which even you thought Putin was bluffing. Looks like she was right with the information she had at that time and wrong on how things played out
"ETF Funds" 😳🤣…. strong man may make a video about this💪👊🏻🤷🏼♂️
On an price increase environment we have two inflatonary and deflationary waves that happen in small cycles: first the inflationary wave that push prices higher, then the deflationary wave produced by a reduction in demand, then another inflationary wave produced by shortage of stock…etc. So to time the market, we have to understand which wave is finishing and which wave is starting. It seems we are in the beginning of a deflationary wave that will last 3-4 months. Then we will experience another inflationary wave when business start to default and there will be another shortage of stock in de production chain.
Tom, Tom, You have completely misrepresented what Cathie Wood said, she apologized for getting the timing wrong on inflation in main part because of the war, otherwise her position has not changed.
Further she has been commenting on the pending oversupply of inventory. You have given that credit to Michael Burry.
Cathie still expects interest rates to drop in the near future, deflation is a longer term outlook because of the new innovation comming.
thanks tom
Cathie is spot on and Burry is just jumping on the bandwagon, timing is different between the 2 but Cathie's prediction is action quite good on timing even.
As soon as I labeled her hype girl I mostly ignored her. Dumping PLTR for a stupid cheep device manufacturer that a simple chromecast can replace….
People who are easily offended should not watch my channel 🙂 I’ll call it like I see it.