Reminder the cpi data comes out at 5 30 a.m. Pacific time i will be live on the meet kevin, live channel, i'll link it down below hey everyone me kevin here, a few things. First, i'm nervous about cpi tomorrow, and i want to give you a little bit more of a detailed preview of kind of where the range of estimates are, and second this is just a quick one if, if you're, really buying real estate right now, i think you're Making a mistake just saying: uh, you know, and i rarely say that i've for 10 years ever since 2011, when i'm like. Oh my gosh, this is like a bottom, i'm buying real estate like crazy and then every year it's like as soon as i save the money like right, uh, i'm, a big fan of buying huddle real estate.

Not now wait. Wait for the effects of interest rate increases to hit and that will hit multiple hit. Multi-Family it'll it'll hit the supplies. The supply shift, we're going to see is going to be brutal and it's going to hit the nation across the board.

Uh, it's going to be rough now this video is supposed to be about cpi and tomorrow, but i figure. Let me just give you a quick note, like the people right now who are buying multi-families single families, investments whatever, i think, they're setting themselves up for failure. The second thing about real estate is that people keep seeming to have this response of oh, but kevin who's. Gon na sell real estate.

People sell real estate every single month, for whatever reason people like oh, why would a seller go from a low interest rate to a higher interest rate? People just do, and it's not just people who sell homes, it's tenants who vacate and then people sell homes. It's investors right whether they're institutional or mom, and pop people selling second homes uh. You know people moving in with family and selling their original home. I think people think that a seller absolutely has to buy a new home.

It doesn't work that way or they move to a way cheaper area where it doesn't matter. So i think people who are uh, who are really so uh full of hopium, are gon na, be uh, sorely surprised, uh, but anyway, so cpi and the stock market. I'm a little nervous about cpi data tomorrow because i really do believe we have rubber banded below the zero percent on the fibonacci. For the qqq solely out of cpi fears, not out of fundamentals, we should not be below the zero percent uh we.

We should be way up above the zero percent line, and so the estimates tomorrow are going to be really critical for determining how we invest going forward. Because if you know we're expecting cpi to come in low tomorrow and if it shocks to the upside, it tells us that we still don't have a grip on how to actually measure measure price changes. Postpandemic. That would be terrible.

The estimates should be relatively close when we first started getting inflation. It made sense. You know when we first started, hitting these crazy inflationary numbers. It made sense that when we had a cpi estimate - let's just say we had a cpi estimate on the monthly uh.

You know month over month of oh, i don't know 0.4 right when we first started getting these results and then you know most of the estimates were here. This is your consensus and you had some people i like 0.5, you know 0.3 or whatever, and then we get something like 0.9 right or or 1, or something crazy like that when we get a miss like that, it just means. Oh, my gosh people are getting rug, pulled we're we're getting something that we're not expecting right. The reason tomorrow is so important is because we're going to get two things number one.

Not only are we going to get confirmation that maybe core inflation is actually continuing its decline, which would now be two to three months in a row of core cpi decline. But it'll also be very important for giving the world confidence that our estimates can actually function again, that we can get back to some semblance of normalcy and when estimates work, we have less uncertainty in the marketplace. So we get two things ideally tomorrow. One certainty that estimates are not just blatant failures all over again and number two.

We actually get cpi data that confirms. We have peaked on inflation and we start rotating down. I am hopeful, you know, jerome powell and the fed have suggested hey. It looks like we may have peaked, but we won't know with certainty basically until june july august, we're tired of waiting for inflation to go down best case scenario for these markets.

Is we get green or a good hit tomorrow, and we could go back to having some semblance of normalcy in the stock market? That doesn't necessarily mean we're not in recession. I think we're in a recession. It doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to go to all-time new highs. I actually, i think that would be terrible.

I would sell everything if we went to all-time new highs uh, but i'm not married to this idea that i have to be all in in 2022.. It's it's a crazy market, so we'll see, but take a look at this all right right now, the bulk of the core, i'm sorry, the headline: month-over-month inflation estimates which it's not just cpi for tomorrow. This is this is just the crazy thing about the week. Okay, so you can't just make a bet on cpi: if we get mortgage applications uh tomorrow we get cpi.

Tomorrow, then we get ppi producer price inflation thursday morning, then we get sentiment expectations on thursday. Those are all important. I mean we literally are going to have wednesday cpi read and mortgage read then thursday we're going to have uh producer inflation reads and then on friday we're going to have uh inflation anchoring. You know the anchoring of inflation expectations, which is super important and the next week we get retail sales on the 17th, which is, i believe, that's monday, uh no seven days, that's tuesday anyway.

Yikes, like there's still a lot of data coming, but if we could get a good hit over here on cpi plus ppi ppi is also expected to come down. I'm just gon na read you off some numbers, really quick latest estimate. Uh last month for headline cpi was 8.5, we're expecting 8.1 we're going from month over month of 1.2, which was insane the march read to 0.2 core 0.4 on the month over month. Right, that's really critical.

Ppi is expected to go for on a month over month, from 1.4 to 0.5, substantial decline sentiment is expected to decline a little bit, but one year inflation expectations are expected to stay relatively stable, maybe up a tenth of a percent nominal. But look at this okay. In terms of the estimates, for probably the numbers that matter the most, in my opinion - and that's right here, this point: two percent - that's going to be your headline month over month, number we've got the analysts right now are kind of split like this uh, and i Do want to remind you seriously. This is we're gon na have the largest price increase ever on those courses on building your wealth, all of them, because there's gon na be a lot of new content coming out, not just in the wealth path, of course, which is still in development and they're gon Na be a lot of new lectures coming out on that, but also the real estate course, because i really think real estate is really where, where we want to be focusing that doesn't mean sell out of the stock market now like now, i actually think we want To be in the market, because i think we're gon na have this disconnect for the stock market's actually higher, and the real estate markets actually ends up being lower towards the end of the year, but anyway, this is roughly what the forecast looks like right now.

So it's a pretty balanced sort of bell curve that we have right here, that's a bad drawing of bell curve, but roughly and if we get anything in excess of this .5 or a negative, it's gon na be a big surprise. What i'm really personally hoping for? Okay, this is not what i expect this is just sort of like this would be a dream. Come true. Okay, we get headline inflation on the month over month.

That's your annual your annualized pace. You just take this number and multiply it by 12 right. So if we get that 2.2 hit, what is that that's 2.4 right now? My dream on this would be that we get a negative read, but the problem with a negative read here is again: it would be a sign that why are the forecasters wrong like now? I'd, rather, the forecasters be wrong to to the the downside right. That would be better.

We want the forecasters to be good and accurate because we create certainty, but if we're going to have them be wrong we'd rather than be wrong to the downside. Not the upside and we've regularly been wrong to the upside, and so i think that's why the market's been so pain. If we go to the core which strips out the volatile food and energy categories, this is what the chart looks like here and same thing here. We want to see that consensus ends up being correct, something between 0.4.5.

If we end up getting a negative, oh gosh would absolutely be beautiful, so very optimistic for that, and i do think that we're going to have a continued slide of uh, essentially disinflation over the next uh. You know six to 12 months here, it's gon na take a while for prices to get all the way back down. But who knows when we get into 2023 and we start lapping year over year, you might actually end up getting negative reads: uh much more consistently. Even on that year-over-year figure, which which then it's like wait a minute, are you serious? How do we go from eight and a half percent inflation to certainly disinflation, which is six percent five percent four percent and then eventually you're going to get some negative reads and it'll be uh quite glorious for markets? Because i really do believe that our economy is quite strong.

That's just this temporary inflation, which has lasted way too long. It's got ta end anyway, thanks for watching folks, we'll see you next time.