So in this video, we're going to watch then Ives completely dismantle all the bear case arguments against Tesla and then at the end of the video, I'm gonna give my personal comments as well as showing you why 270 dollars per share is the bottom for Tesla In my personal opinion, let's watch the clip first and then let's go through it afterwards. This is with us: Managing Director: S I mean we got these delivery numbers from Tesla and when you look at them sequentially, a little disappointing, but still, year over year, you're seeing the growth. What did you make of it? Yeah, I mean Nicole I just view it year over year. It was strong, especially relative to this environment.

the price, culture, work things specifically in China And if you look at the factory down times, this sets up what I believe is going to be a very strong key before and I know that's why the street Shrugged off these numbers which clearly were disappointing. You know when we talk about people start comparing other makers like Rivian for example to Tesla because they get excited and they're seeing we're being on the road now. But um, you know Rivian delivery 15 000 plus two Tesla's 435 000 plus um, Rivian's probably going to come out with 52 000 Vehicles this year versus 1.8 million for Tesla I mean is Tesla still I mean I Know Byd is on its heels too. Where does Tesla stand? I mean to to the people who are the naysayers for Tesla What do you tell them? I mean the scale and the scope is unmatched.

School Board I think when you look where Tesla is. but I think look. One of the biggest risks if you look at the thesis was GM Ford Detroit that was going to be competition in the US but now this UAW debacle that's actually been a win Professor I think when you look in China rights cuts that price wars happened by being Neo and others. but Tessa's actually gained the share and I continue to go in 2024, they're in a massive position of strength despite the shaky Macker And when people say that Tesla trades more like a tech company versus an auto company to try and justify the valuation.

I mean you have a 350 Target it's a 247 today. Tell me why the valuation is Justified Well I mean they're called miniature. Talk about this. So I mean we disruptive technology player nine.

Auto Company I think if you look even at the sum of the parts that's now starting to play out supercharger battery ultimately Fsbai which separates Tesla from others, it's really the software. and when I've used the secret sauce which is non-hardware and that's why more and more I think investors are starting to understand that this is not an auto companies. this relative I believe it deserves that multiple that that I think it continues to attain. Go in 2024.

right? right? I mean that's the whole point and that's why you know I ask you these questions because I get bombarded sometimes like oh, full self-driving is so far away. Batteries: They don't really make batteries, they they do it in collaboration with other companies. They're not really a battery company. They're not an AI company.

it's just an auto company and it's not worth the current price. Um, you know, do we have actual statistics of any sort of how many batteries are made that they really are growing in? AI That there really is potential. I Feel like I've spent a lot of time at Tesla factories around the world as well as other factories and that's why I Think it's very easy to be bearish on Tesla sitting there in your spreadsheet in New York theater I Think when you see what they're actually doing, that's what's separate them and I think again Again, that's been going to give me a different feeling. Yeah, yeah.

I mean the Cyber truck is coming. That should be an exciting addition too, right? Talk about the orders that line up for that, right? Yeah? look. Weebly production begins later this year, deliveries into next year and that's just going to be another. I Think when you look at their product portfolio, that's just going to add to the growth.

It's going to add to the mood that I think continues to play out over the coming years. Look, obviously we're going through a White Knuckle period in terms of multiples in terms of disruptive Tech I Think we go into next year I View it that this is kind of the next phase of the testing drugstore. Yeah, and I Know you know Tesla's not unionized like foreign GM Um, so I'm just they get basically shares and such, right? I mean they get shares of the company and that's sort of the carrot that Elon Musk puts out there to make sure that they don't unionize. What do you think of that? I mean once the debacle that's happening, the truth which is UAW that's really been a trip to.

you know for the Detroit big Brick in terms of what you know, a year in terms of 2024. Tesla's never going to have Union and I think that continues to really be one of their strengths in terms of how they built it, how Rivian's built it. and I think the sad thing right now is that the winners in terms of what's happened is UAW age match at the Detroit Big Gray. it's Tesla and it's the foreign automakers that are going to bench them.

So a few things here worth mentioning. First of all, let's cover about the you know, the main topics that Dan brought up and then I'll show you what I think is the bottom for the stock and what is the top assuming some very either bearish or conservative assumptions and it's going to blow a lot of haters mind. So first of all, I have to be honest, this was probably one of the least anti-tesla biased interviews I've seen in a long, long time. So kudos to the interviewer.

Not bad, not bad. Obviously she had a few mishaps, but overall she was kind of balanced and I got a good credit for that. I mean that doesn't happen every day with Tesla media now obviously. Then again, educates everybody on the fact that there's shutdowns, planned shutdowns because of the phase out of the current well three, and the move to the Highland which are exactly uh what Tesla communicate is going to happen and yet some investors and Traders misunderstood that and he is talking about a setup for a massive Q4 which if Tesla is going to hit 1.8 million Vehicles as they say they will, they're gonna have to have a great Q4 which is just you know Logic on Dance behave I Absolutely agree.

And the interviewer did mention that if you compare Tesla to Rivier and you see the huge differences in the life cycle right? reviewing is at the beginning stage. with 50 000 vehicles per year, test has already almost 1.8 million vehicles per year. so the difference is massive and I don't think it's even the biggest difference between reviewing the Tesla. The fact of the matter is that Tesla is a much bigger potential company as far as AI as far as robotics, as far as energetic.

Um, and Riven is a great car company in the making, so you know he did mention that Ford and GM thesis is being viable competition for Tesla is now officially dead I Think it's been dead for a long time, but he's saying look, the UAW strike has put the final nail in the coffin of that argument that Ford GM will compete with Tesla They're going to fight for scraps and Byd is nice, but Tesla is still winning despite not even competing with Byd on their favorite Market segment which is the 25 000 car 100. I Agree with him and he says the Tesla is a disruptive tech company and should be valued as such. Couldn't agree more. unlike Rivian that should be priced like a great car company in the making.

but they don't have the upside. the level of ceiling that Tesla has is way higher than Rivian, so there's not a lot of companies that justify evaluation like Tesla Because of all the potential S-curves this still haven't even hit it at all. and he talks about his price Target being 350 and currently the stock is at 250. I'm going to show you why 270 is the bottom for the stock long term.

It might drop a little bit here and there, but sustainably, it's not going to go below to 70 for for a long, long time and stay there. I Mean it might hit it I'm not saying it's never going to happen, but as a long-term analysis, we're currently at the bottom of Tesla before the new cycle starts and she did mention the fact that she's unsure of Tesla being an AI company. I mean lady, have you seen FSD or the Tesla bot I mean that's an AI company Um, It then said a beautiful sentence which I might put on a t-shirt is the fact that it's easy to be bearish on Tesla on your Excel spreadsheet in your air conditioned office. and I couldn't agree more.

People who have no idea about you know what Tesla is doing, are running Excel spreadsheets and now becoming buyers without understanding the massive potential of this company. And they both. They both actually mentioned the Cyber track as being a massive Catalyst for Tesla couldn't agree more and I think one of the more important overlooked aspects of Tesla is like: why Tesla isn't unionized, Why the employees are getting paid less salaries right and work harder and make better products and not don't unionize. This because Tesla has made a lot of people millionaires.

There isn't a single company in the world that made more employees millionaires than Tesla. Tesla have made simple everyday workers millionaires by giving them stock based compensation options and the piece of the pie. No other other company has done this and this is why Number One people give a about their work, the quality of what they do, and also why Tesla will never face a union UAW problem like Ford GM Because their employees are Partners in their journey and that's absolutely 100 on point now. I Do want to share with you my own kind of example of why 270 is the bottom on the screen right now.

What you're seeing is stock MVP which is a platform that I've created along with my partner. Pete Stock Dash Mvp.com This is a all-around analysis tool that looks at companies from every possible angle As far as The Insider Selling institutional buying and selling, you can run a whole DCF on this. You can look at the reportings at the financials. We have this thing called MVP cards in which you can have a snapshot of how the company is doing.

So you can get it right now at 40 off for the next two weeks and then the code goes away and it's full price. Again, you can use the code. It's going to be in the below description last 40 and in the pin comment two weeks it's gone. It's going to be back to full price forever.

So get it. try it out. Seven weeks money back guaranteed. Now the reason I'm showing you this thing Beyond Obviously I want to promote it of course I want people to use this I've built this but the reason I'm showing you this and I'm going to make a little bit bigger here because I want you to see the assumptions I've used to show you that 270 is the bottom for the stock and 1400 is the more optimistic version using some very conservative assumptions.

This isn't like even Tesla going crazy story. This is a test of being normal and Tesla screwing things up. So if Tesla screws up completely, there are 270 stock in five years, so that's the worst possible case. If Tesla keeps you know: growth at only 25 percent, which is half of what's currently it's growing right? If the net income margin drops from 12 to 8 percent, If the free cash flow margin drops to six percent, the PE drops to 50..

the discount rate is 12, which means very high interest rates in the market for the next five years, then Tesla is a 270 stock in five years. So if the World falls apart pretty much and Tesla screws every single thing up, they're at 270 dollars. That's the bottom, right. But if you use just normal assumptions on the conservative side, which is only 50 growth which is what they have right now.

a 12 net income margin which is what they have right now, and eight percent free cash flow margin and Adpe which is what they have right now and a discount rate of 10 assuming interest rates will go down a little bit over the next five years. Then all of a sudden that's a fourteen hundred dollar stock which is an upside of 434 percent. So at the end of this analysis, what seems to me to be the case beyond what Dan said which is on point is that people who buy Tesla right now in my opinion and this is not Financial Advice: In my own personal opinion, they're getting tested at the very bottom in which you can own this stock and the upside is so lucrative it's almost like a no-brainer for me. That's why I have a lot of my position in the stock, but hey, you do you? I do me if you want to go deeper into this and learn a little bit more about how to evaluate compensate.

Tesla I've said it before I'm going to say it again. Feel free. We have one final spot left I Just checked before this video. one final spot left for Academy and then it's closed for a while because we just did demand is way too much.

It's just it's a personal group so I'd like to close it. So one final spot, whoever gets it after this video gets it and that's it. There's not going to be any more spots. Thank you for staying with me! I Would love to see you in our group on our Discord server on our patreon.

the link is going to be below Patreon.com Forward slash Tom Nash Either in the academy or on the regular membership would love to see you there. Thank you so much I'll see you in the next video.