Well, I was wrong I Thought CPI would come in at 2.2 and as we knew, no, no, uh, we got 3.3 and this has, uh, it wasn't even close Okay the core CPI number as we saw this morning as we covered it. uh instead of coming in at 0. 25 came in at 31 and it's hot so a lot of people are worried why what the heck happened? Well we know obviously from the course member live streams that goodness gracious, most companies are not raising a price. If anything, they are fighting to lower prices.

even just a KB Homes analysis that we did this morning. WD40 We have more to do. Uh, tomorrow. Like every single company we're looking at, it's price decreases or stable prices.

But folks, the numbers that we got came from well as you've already seen air fairs, motor vehicle insurance, medical care services, and Recreation as well as used cars. Had it not been for used cars, we would have actually turned negative on inflation. But what matters now is not the past. What matters now is going forward.

and uh, clearly we're now going to expect a lot of bearish inflationary talk as usual, and as you would expect, including one piece here from Simon White, who makes some interesting arguments, he argues that inflation can structurally remain higher due to high fiscal spending. basically price going to go well cuz government's still spending money bro. China might end up printing a little too much money causing a little bit of a ramp up in China again and that could actually start exporting inflation to the United States as opposed to the deflation that we're getting now. Uh, and of course, there are these risks that Supply chains get tighter again, just like what we're seeing in the Red Sea.

Although we've created so much of an additional supply for Supply chains to be pretty dang loose, the rubber band is pretty dang loose. You could take uh, quite a little chunk out uh of Supply chains and frankly, still have plenty plenty of room for for people to move their things around. But anyway, point of this long and short of all of it is what does this mean going forward in my opinion and the market does not agree with me at all. In my opinion, the March rate cut probably not going to happen now we have two more Cpis between now in March Next Fed meeting is on the 31st.

Uh, markets still pricing in a 68.7% chance of a rate cut in March I Don't get it that I Feel like that should have plummeted after today's CPI report. Some folks are arguing hey, well, the trend of inflation is still down and that's true. I mean that that's very, very true. Me: you look at uh Nick T's charts here.

Yes, the trend is down, That's great, it's fine, and yes, housing is still going to roll over. Yes, all of those things are true I'm not here flip-flopping. But what I am going to say which? this might just be an unsexy warning, but uh, it is. It is.

What? I believe I Believe Nothing from today's report says we need to de devate from the course right? Staying the course here. Interest rate sensitive stocks for the longer run. Uh, in an environment where interest rates are likely to Trend down the warning and the risk is, it's probably going to take a little longer than we expected. Now that's okay.

I I Think the earliest people really thought rate Cuts were coming was March I Personally think that's going to be more like May Uh, but who knows, You know. we got two more CPI reports between now and then, so so those will make the final decision. Uh, and think Jpow on the 31st of January this month, which is when we have an expiration for the prices. uh for the courses on building weth I think link down below me Kevin.com I Think that is when you actually see uh, the Fed's punt.

So I kind of think this month's going to be a little boring. We've got earnings that leads a lot of people to be nervous so you got to get through earnings. You're going to have to get through the Jpow punt, not the Jpow put punt like literally kicking the can down the road and we got to sit here and go. I Guess those trades are are just going to have to take a little longer to play.

which is fine again. My POV portfolio that I've positioned is one that is balanced between chips and interest rate sensitive. The chips are freaking killing it. That's doing great interest rate sensitive, not doing too hot.

It's okay. it it did fine on a year, you know, a year-over-year basis. It's fine, they're way up. You know the Tesla's the end phase or well, end phase isn't Uh, Tesla is uh, but you know it's It's starting to fall a little bit and N phase has had a rough last year.

Uh, So my take though, is that all of the data that I'm reading, all of the reactions I'm reading are telling us that yes, yes, more patience and quite frankly, a report like today is going to lead a lot of people to come out with reports explaining exactly why inflation is going to resurge just like the 1970s. So unfortunately, you're kind of just going to have to buckle up and look at the data, look at all the perspectives, and go. Okay, do we think this is actually going to be a real concern? China The Red Sea Fiscal spending. Fiscal spending, by the way.

I think is one of the reasons we haven't actually gone into a recession because the government just keeps printing money except for the chip sector. Not for us this time. Anyway, this is just a short little update I Think it's nothing critical has changed here. Course stays the same.

It's just going to take a little longer to play out. That's my take. Thanks so much and uh, good luck trading out there. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll we'll try a little adver in in SE Go Congratulations man! you have done so much.

People love you people look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take.