Do you did you expect now uh you, you temporarily shut down comments on your channel? Did you expect that people would get so uh upset about that? Because did you expect the level of animosity that's going to create? No, i had no idea, otherwise i wouldn't have done it. I think i lost like 500 subscribers in like an hour. That's brutal. No creator will admit it, but we don't like losing subscribers now and and it's uh i'll tell you, i mean it's been a lot harder for for almost any every finance channel to to grow subscribers uh in in just the last uh, probably six months or so I mean crypto channels are going slower, finance channels slower.

Everything is just slowed down, but in hindsight like if i gave you like you, remember, you're, i'm assuming even though you're much younger than me you're a fan of back to the future because you seem to be the type to like the movie. So that's my favorite movie of all times i mean you referenced, my commercial, the the uh bully in the tv commercial. I made his name biff yeah, that's right! I know so. If i gave you a delorean, a doc delorean right now and you can go back and you can go back to whatever date in the past month, where would you go? What would you do and what would you change? Obviously this is all like an academic question, but how what would you like? You know what what would you tell to kevin if you, if you, if you go back to like two weeks ago, what would you tell kevin two weeks ago, yeah, i wouldn't have sat on my hands as long i'll.

Tell you exactly what i would have gone back to uh, i would have gone back to here. We go uh the day they released the january minutes from the federal reserve, which was the meeting they had on december 14th and 15th, which they released the minutes. I think it was like january 6th or 7th. I can't find the exact date, but one of those like the first week of january, and i would have told myself kevin.

This - is the worst report that you've ever seen. Unfortunately, it took me like two weeks to like for it to actually like process in my mind, like wait a minute. Maybe this has a portfolio impact, uh and uh, and i wish i would have just fully processed it when i had my reaction to it. Uh and made a video about it and fully applied it to my portfolio then so that would have meant i would have sold about two weeks earlier.

So do you? Do you think that uh, that kind of while you were processing, what's happening and uh? Do you regret making the video where you said basically i'm all in and all the stuff they like to show that clip of you saying i'm not living like? Do you regret doing the video right now? No because see what happens, is we uh program ourselves to act in a very specific way and to invest in a certain way and to to be very consistent about that uh until something changes, that's kind of like uh? If you're driving the titanic, you steer it towards where you're going and if all of a sudden there's an iceberg in front of you, you got to change course, fast, uh, and so that's what happened for me and i know people like to say. Oh, how could you go from one day, uh, you know being bullish about the market to the next day. Oh my gosh, i'm all out! Well, that's when all of the facts culminated and that iceberg realization hit of oh, my gosh. This is way worse than i expected okay.

Now, what do we want to do, and so it was really one of those moments where i even made this clip. I took clips from the titanic and put it together because that's how i how it felt uh. It was basically this this image of of somebody, seeing oh, my gosh, that the iceberg right and then and then running down to the control room and turning the engines backwards, and then the freak out right, uh and people like to say that that's a it's. A flip out, or it's a flip-flop or it's emotional and for me it was very calculated that the expected value of staying in the market was substantially lower than the expected value of of getting out and waiting.

And - and so we made a calculated decision to get out, do you do not think that uh framing it in a different way would have saved you a lot of the grief like? Basically, probably i don't have a pr team, though no, but like i mean what, if you would have just said, hey guys, a lot of this is analytical. A lot of this is, is methodology crowd psychology, but sometimes you have to go with your gut and i'm just going with my gut, which is a fair game. But if you would, i think, if you would have said that way, you basically eliminate any sort of criticism of. Oh.

How could the system give you different answers within the 48 hour span? I think you would have saved yourself a lot of trouble uh. You know the thing is it wasn't because it's fair game to be honest, kevin, it's fair game to say: hey, sometimes you got ta go with your gut. It's part of investment, totally totally agree with you. The problem is, i don't think there was like one thing that fell in my lap.

That day, that said, uh you know you have to change your opinion. I think it was really about a month of of research and and the way i picture it is. Imagine you have you, have a book and every day you're writing down a little bit of research, uh and and every day you turn the page every day, you're focused on that one page and then at the end of the month you close the book and then A week later you come to and you're like what did i write down and then you sit there and you go through. Oh my gosh, oh man, oh wait a minute.

These are all starting to connect. That's the moment that happened right. It was that that collection of all of the month of research before that of what has happened since since about the beginning of december, that made me have that oh crap moment of. I really need to be aware of the signs that are happening here.

How does this apply to what i think could happen in the market and then that's where i made the decision that okay wait a minute we got to be out you you. It sounds to me kevin that, because you chose to be very kind of wear your heart on your sleeve and be extremely transparent with what you think and what you do. You bought yourself a world of trouble because if you played it a little bit more aloof and didn't kind of telegraph, every thought you have then all of this would probably not exist. I think yeah pretty much.

Do you think that this this kind of you think then being transparent is counterproductive for for a guy in the youtube finance community, because i mean yes and, and you think it will change the way you operate because of what you just went through? Probably not it. It certainly made me think that i let me put it this way. I wouldn't recommend it to anyone else. Uh.

You know if, if somebody's not not already got everything out there and it's kind of oh nothing left to show, there's no reason to start that uh. It's it's really bad, because people over analyze, every single move, uh - and you know i kind of learned that when i ran for governor in california too, is there's a reason why, when you go to a politician's voice - and i hate politicians - i hate politics completely. There's a reason why you go to politicians, websites and their actual plans are really vague. They never tell you exactly what they're going to do, and so, when i ran in california, i put on my website exactly what i was going to do point by point exactly what my plan was and all that led to was journalists from every organization in california.

Picking apart every little detail, showing me why something could not work rather than why something could work right, because that that runs the story so uh i i kind of learned that in general uh there there's a reason why most people are not 100 transparent. It's because it's not meant to be understood by everyone. Do you regret running for office? I mean it was probably not a pleasant experience. It sounds like a lot of hard work for just a lot of trouble.

It was yeah, i mean looking back, i mean realistically it like profit and loss wise. It was a waste of time and cost a lot of money uh, but uh experience wise uh. You know perspective wise best thing i could have ever done kind of like getting sued. Best thing you could ever do to learn about the legal system is get sued.

I think you got sued by grant right. Some. Did you not yep yeah yeah you're getting sued by grant cardone is, is definitely it's either gon na make you or break you and i don't think it broke, but this is not there's like so. Do you not miss the the ease of just doing real estate of how nobody nobody was upset? You had the fan base that was completely kind of educational, you're.

Still getting plenty of views? Do you not miss the the good old times where things were clean and kind of harmless yeah? Of course it's funny. You know i. I talked to other creators about that and we looked back to you, know, traveling and just being able to talk about real estate. Like you said, and uh and everybody loved it, you know uh, it was uh.

Looking back, it was an easier time. In the moment it was probably just as stressful, because you're trying to grow you're trying to expand you're trying to figure out okay. What is your audience? You know what do they want to see more of uh and so there's so much more uncertainty in terms of like how to build your channel right, i was still trying to find myself and it took forever to figure out exactly where i really belonged and uh. So now i have that certainty, but then, with that comes all of the uncertainty of oh my gosh here now i got 20 new videos.

People are making about me. Oh business insider is now talking about how kevin sold all his stocks. You know it's just nuts did you believe if i told you like uh two years ago, you're going to be on business insider analyzing, your your stock market trades? That does not sound something like yeah, you would have said. There's no way - and i think if you told me three years ago, that i'm going to be on the financial times having a legal battle against nikola trying to shut down my channel, i would have told you like, like there's yeah, i understand, but when you're in It you don't feel once you in it.

It's like you know when you play in the playground and you like the the guys in the nba, but once you get there, you don't feel it doesn't feel special. Just feels like like a like like a job. It doesn't you don't have the sense of oh anymore, so understand yeah that that's that's one of the downsides, unfortunately, is it's it's like that. I think that's a really good example.

It's kind of like okay well like where do you go from here? So i i don't know, sometimes that's that's kind of depressing, but that move from real estate to the stock market. I mean that was more creatively, driven or financially driven, because, obviously there's more financial incentives in the stock market youtube than in real estate youtube right. Well, the stock market youtube became much more popular during the pandemic uh because everybody was home and - and there was nobody you know nobody's going outside looking at renovations. I think there is a really good niche to be built in construction, youtube, uh, like renovations, and that uh it it's just much more complicated to make that kind of content, because you're going to sets you're going to scenes.

You've got to pick different portions of renovations up, so it's a lot more difficult to make that sort of content and um, often the the you know, work slash reward ratio is is much easier with stocks i mean i, i can spend three hours three four hours Going through earnings calls and do a really good detail, video on the stock market, uh it'd - probably take me, you know i could do two or three of those a day. I could probably only do one real estate video a day uh, and so it was more just not even that product not even one day, probably two a week, and if you have to kill yourself for two weeks yeah, because it would get redundant too. You know i mean there's only so much, i could say about real estate, but stock market is just because the real estate market moves a lot slower like how many times can i update you on the real estate market about what prices are? I can't do it that often, whereas the stock market changes every freaking minute every day. You know, i think you kind of replace a little bit the talking heads on cnbc and i'll.

Tell you why i think that happened, because yesterday i was doing some work. Uh after market close around market closed and i was doing some work and i was just my head was exploding because we did the two hour podcast with chris williamson. I don't know if you know the the guy he's phenomenal. It sounds familiar, but i don't know if he has a podcast like he had jordan peterson on he's going back to interview him over at texas in a couple of days.

Oh wow, the film crew, and he has so we had him me and justin had him on our podcast and my head was exploding. You know after you do a two-hour podcast. You just want to chill. So i was doing some mild stuff on my computer and i just wanted to relax and just and i put on your channel, i usually don't watch your live streams, i'm more kind of watch, your videos and i put on the live stream, and i just found Myself, just putting this in the background and kind of enjoying the asmr aspect of hearing about the market.

While i was working and i think, and then i realized well, why is this working better than like a cnbc? Well, you don't have commercial breaks, which kind of just you know kills that vibe for you and the other thing i think, you've gotten really good at just keeping it going. There's no um um you just it's really fluent and i think wow. That's also part. I think why people criticize you they say well he's really good at youtube.

His work ethic is in fact i mean this. I was damning with sasha he's a friend of mine. He made a really brutal video about you, so i'm friends with you, i'm friends with him. I have no problem with that, so i was damning with him and i was like i'm going to talk to kevin.

Do you have any questions you want to ask and basically said? Well, i'm just going to read it. It's like. I think he has great work ethic he's amazing at youtube, but he's not an analyst he's, not analytically minded and basically his argument. I think, which i think a lot of people share is that well you're killing it on youtube.

You're you're, don't sleep! Obviously i don't even know like what is it? One am 1 30 a.m. Oh yeah! It's like 12. 35 right now! You don't sleep. You you put on you, put up five six videos a day, so everybody loves that part, but, like a lot of people, are saying well kevin, like just uh, you know a couple of uh months or years ago.

I don't know they dug up this clip of you saying i'm never going to do a stock market course remember. That's now circulating over social media and i think it's fair for a person to change to change their mind, because i'm going to tell you right now. It's fair to change your mind, because if you decided to do a course and people are buying the course and people are not asking for refunds and basically giving you positive reviews, which is i've, never heard anybody say anything bad about your course, then the price, whatever You charge the fair price if somebody's, paying and they're not refunding it's. I have no issues with it.

So it's okay to change your mind. I don't. I feel it's nice for social media to have a sound bite of you saying i'm never going to sell a stock market course and then like show like the 995, whatever you charge for the course, i think it's funny and the, but i don't think yeah. I don't think it's uh.

I don't find this morally wrong, but yeah. Well, you know where, where it comes from is, do you think this criticism, though, is like uh it's coming from the from a from more a place like well you're, really good youtuber, but like we don't trust you as a stock market analyst yeah i mean i. I think trust is for any individual to determine you know. Rep reputation is what other people think of your character as w.

What you are uh - and i think my character is one of an analyst and i think if people uh even watch the live analysis that i do of uh earnings uh, whether i'm pulling up 10ks or or 10qs or i'm reviewing what the federal reserve is doing. Live or presidents or whatever i think people know i'm an analyst at heart and for somebody to suggest that i i think is uh uh is is uh somebody who who doesn't watch the channel regularly and that's fine uh. There are plenty of people who watch a video of mine and they're like oh, i don't like this guy and then they just want to bag me no problem, whatever uh. As far as the course thing.

That's by the way, i started to interrupt you, but you know there was a guy on the internet who made the video about me that i have a pug face. He said he has a face and i found it hilarious like i totally get it bro like there's gazillion people in the world. No, but no there's not some people just won't like your voice, your face, your beard, your nose, whatever right, hey, you know what some people just uh. You know you can't make everyone happy as they say so.

As far as the course thing, it's totally true back in 2017 and 18, i remember specifically, i took graham stefan to a rental property in newbury park. California - and we were talking about how uh we - neither of us, wanted to sell courses and uh and that quickly changed it. It did for both of us for both of us uh, but we we both thought. You know courses not for us.

We don't want to do them uh and the the thing that really changed is that we realized the youtube algorithm, really prioritizes uh hot topic, sort of videos and it's very difficult to do like a stream of of let's say, 100 or 200 videos in a row Where you really walk somebody through your thesis on whether it's real estate or stocks, or something to where, if somebody goes chronologically, then they understand how your brain works, how you analyze stocks, you know how you analyze the news or markets or people or whatever. That's very very difficult to do just on a youtube channel, and so you know those sorts of videos won't perform, even though they are the most critical in my opinion, and that's where we both individually realized. The courses could be very, very useful for that and if somebody doesn't want to pay, they don't have to you know: there's there's no force for that, they can. They could try to learn themselves or or we get their perspectives from wherever they want.

You know i pay just as an example. I pay three thousand dollars a month for the bloomberg terminal, something like that. It's like 28 hours a month, i pay uh. You know thirty five hundred dollars for uh for for retail, tracking or fifteen hundred dollars for the reuters terminal and - and these are monthly fees right.

So so i might be paying seven eight thousand dollars a month for research and in my opinion it is a drop in the bucket, because if i can get just a little bit of extra perspective or that little bit of extra, oh, my gosh, i haven't been Rethinking about it that way, it's worth it for me. I will gladly spend money for people's research, uh and and the course is really no different than that i've. I i don't have issues at all with people selling courses. I have issues with people.

I've done videos on this before when you were doing your grant cardone videos. I was exposing the fake gurus. You remember my. I don't know if you saw me back then like the dan lok type of guys, oh yeah yeah, so back in my early days.

So as you, so we both transitioned out of this, our previous niches into what we're doing now. So when i was doing this, i was very critical of people selling courses, but but as as things progress, even though i don't offer a course, and i kind of like to joke about it, don't sell nothing, don't buy nothing, don't click people. So, even though i personally don't i think that there's two types of courses - i don't think courses - are inherently bad or evil yeah. If you, first of all, if you're using predatory marketing to sell your course, which is a lot of these guys that criticized back in the day, they do, but the click funnels and all of this, like ins, they're paying insane cpm's.

When i was doing my videos about the fake gurus bro, my cpm was over 150 dollars, it's insane because they they advertise on these channels. Part of the reason why i stopped because i realized most of the ads are coming from them, putting ads on my channel because they're the roi is insane so they're putting a lot of money into this. So this is predatory to me because they're preying on the week, you know people will pay anything for love, health and wellness right. So these are the three so they're praying on the week and and the courses are like five thousand dollars the high ticket ones like so, and the value i feel is trash, i'm i i'm just gon na call it out.

However, if you're selling a co and also there's a lot of fraud that goes on into the refund policy, so you see like a 30 day money back guarantee and then you go and you read the fine print and it says well, it's 30 days, unless you Completed more than 40 percent the course in the first two weeks. So basically it's just like a hacking, so i know you give full refunds. I i don't have a statistical metric to judge how many people like or didn't like a course anybody i spoke to seemed to enjoy the course and seem to think there's value in it. The the course is priced at whatever it's priced.

If people are paying there's no upsell, there's no extra course. There's no private, like 5 000 calls. So it seems to me that it's fair game, it's a free market, you're selling, they're buying nobody's refunding that's fair, no issues for me and i'm. I know that.

There's a lot of people who are just jealous and that's fine. It is what it is. However, and here's where i, the point i want to touch on, is i think that the the courses uh in itself is what's g, what's getting you in hot water, because people are people are not seeing, i think the stuff that you were mentioning, which is the Insane amount of expenses and time that's put into this and they're basically saying well kevin is a grifter right. Kevin is still in the courses.

Kevin. Is that that i think that - and i feel like there's a lot of this - that's driven out of people looking at you and saying: well, i'm not i'm not less talented than him. I should be making millions of dollars. Why is he making? I think do you feel, like a lot of the criticism to you? Is kind of people have to disguise it as professional criticism, because they're just secretly jealous or in the way they have like a cognitive dissonance about it.

I mean it could be that it could also be that it's it's easy content right. It's it's easy content to make fun of people, especially if you've got a channel with. You know: 1. 000.

Subscribers 3. 000. Subscribers 50. 000 subscribers.

It's so easy to just go! Oh, my thoughts on me kevin and the most shareable content is the content, that's going to get the most views, and so somebody can make a video you know shouting or yelling or being extremely critical. Those are videos that are most likely to do well. So i think part of it has to do with how society operates, which is ultimately what the youtube algorith youtube algorithm is but yeah. I think there could also be an element of of what you've described.

Absolutely do you do you feel like sometimes letting people know like they, like? You have a lot of new audience that kind of joined in the last 18 months that haven't seen the previous iteration? Do you sometimes not want to give them a glimpse of like the the kevin who traveled all the way to florida and barged into the grand cardone office, and like that like? Do you never do not want to make that kind of content every once in a while, just to give them a glimpse of the more edgy stuff you used to do i'm happy to i i mean i i love it. I put some edgy stuff on twitter and instagram uh less less on youtube now, uh, mostly because of the production time that goes into it i mean from for me. I just look: i'm like my gosh, some of the old videos, the the more edgy kind of real estate stuff, like i i used to do. Titles, like i just left my family for a model uh, and it was a picture of like leaving my wife or whatever for a mom and uh.

When you click on the video, it was me at a model home. I talked about the benefits of new construction, real estate or, whatever you know and uh. You know, but i would do these real estate, videos or, like my house, is sinking in quicksand or whatever uh. That was a good one uh those videos.

They would take me a day to film eight hours, eight to nine hours of editing, with music and and re-watching and production. It's a lot of work uh, and so now i've been a lot more freestyle. Where i i don't have the time to pull that together together, i don't have the time to uh. You know vlog, my i just want to ski trip.

I didn't vlog it uh. Maybe i should have, but even if i did am i going to sit and edit it all together, probably not. I really need to hire an editor, then maybe i could do that again. First of all, i don't want to do it.

You should uh, because i mean every person i speak to who was on your channel from the old days like i was. We all say we kind of missed the real estate stuff, because nobody was saying: oh, the real stuff. There was trash. We all kind of missed that and i think, there's a demand for this content as well.

That's a good point. I need to uh, i'm gon na write it down. I i if, if anybody knows an editor, i need one i'll write it down right now. We got ta find something i know a few good ones i'll.

Send you some some really good. Please thank you um. You know coffee is, i know i can't say this on there i'll tell you later um so anyways. So i wanted to ask you a tough question and then uh do you, and this is kind of my what i'm wondering and you know we're friends and i i don't mean to bash you and i absolutely admire what you do.

But i feel like when you made that original video, basically saying and by the way we traded places people are dming me how funny it is that i i was going for the past few months saying this is not. This is not the bottom. This is not the bottom, this is not the bottom and then you were going the opposite, and now we completely flipped. I basically made the video a few days ago saying: well, this is the bottom there's going to be a bull run, and then you flip so people like are you? Did you trade brains with with with kevin, because we completely flipped on the same? On the same day, however, i didn't get the same flack as you did, because, like i mean what happened, is that if you waited for another week, i don't even think not even a month another week to space your, i mean you change your mind.

The next day, but if for you know, there's there's an old saying in the judicial world, justice is not only should be done, it should be seen and i think it's a brilliant statement by the. I don't remember the judge that said this and if you you've made a decision and now you know, but you say hey, i just made a video a day ago, but you, you told yourself well my my integrity mandates me to do it right now and then You did it, but if you wait a week or even couple weeks and you say, hey listen and you made it seem as if, like i don't think you get the flack, i don't think none of this happens. I think that what happened is that for 48 hours, not even 48 hours between the two videos is what got you in hot water and i'll. Tell you my problem with this.

No issues with you changing your mind, no issues with you selling, there's no rule that says you have to diamond hand. I mean what the is this. You can do whatever you want. It's your money, you're transparent about it, zero issues with this no problem at all.

I'll tell you where my problem is so my problem is that you sell what seems to be a very v value-filled course, but then this course is all about methodology and analytics, and then you say well i got a hunch or i got it. I got an epiphany whatever and in 48 hours i completely changed my analysis 180 degrees and we kind of dm about this before on twitter, and i feel like in the way it devalues the course, because not that can't be packaged as a you can't sell a Hunch, you can't sell intuition, it's just something you either have or you don't have and i feel like it takes away from the value of the course dude like what do you can do you have like? Can you settle this for me yeah? Absolutely so, for me there there are two types of markets that you could be in uh and the easiest way to look at it is just a cycle when you are writing a market up the psychology of buy the dip. Don't look at your portfolio when it goes down uh. You know you reduce your expenses, increase your income, blah blah blah.

Whatever right that works. You program it you stick to it. You go, go, go, go you buy the dip. You don't worry about the rips, you don't worry about the dips.

Just keep going stay long, that's part of the cycle. However, you get to a a point where every business cycle ends and and the business cycle starts rotating down, and at this point you have a choice and usually it has to do with the size of your portfolio. If your portfolio is say twenty thousand dollars and you're making fifty thousand dollars a year, you probably should not care what the business cycle is. You should probably just not financial advice, but you should probably just stick with buy the dip dollar cost average in and don't worry about it because the reality is.

You should be more focused on figuring out how you can go from fifty thousand dollars a year of income to a hundred thousand dollars a year of income, because i can tell you you taking your twenty thousand dollar portfolio and uh selling and then trying to buy Back in to double it potentially or whatever or not is is a waste of your time like focus on your skills and and make more money for yourself and your family. Now, if you're, in a different situation where you do see a business cycle, turning because maybe you're in the industry, where you see the business cycle, turning or you're you're studying the business cycles turning uh and you have a large enough portfolio to where. If the cycle did turn negative, we went into a large bear market and you put cash aside. You might be able to take your portfolio and three or four exit by actually having money to go shopping at the bottom of the market.

Usually, in my opinion, this is probably for portfolios in excess of 500 000, if not many millions of dollars, and so i do not think that trying to play market cycles is the best for everybody at all. I think it's probably for you know one to five percent of individuals, and so i think it's actually really useful in my course to see both sides of that that there are really different levels of wealth and different levels of responding to what's happening in the market. And uh, addressing both of those scenarios is, is very, very important, and so i believe that for me personally, when we're on the rise and we have a supportive federal reserve, bye, bye, bye by the dip by the by the bid. If i see a market turn where i think, let's say in a year, we could be in a recession and we could potentially have a real estate crash.

It would make sense for me to position a large portfolio to the side to cash, because i'm going to be able to do a lot a lot i could. I could do a whole lot of things with with cash uh that i couldn't do. If i i just diamond, handed it and wrote the wave all the way down, but here's i want to challenge you a little bit and uh. I wonder i want to understand my i when i read your analysis.

You send me on twitter, you're, eight point or nine point analysis. I said all of this makes perfect sense. In fact, i i think it's a completely logical position and i think it's well researched and well put what my problem was. What none of this changed in those 48 hours since you made the video or bye bye that day by the day by the dip, until you made the video on by i'm selling.

So none of these factors shifted during this time and that's where i had the problem was like, so what the so? How did this? All none of the all of this was known to you so that how the analysis changed so fundamentally in two days, yeah, it's! It was really uh. It's it's that book analogy again right! It's it's having all of my analysis together and then sometimes what happens as creators is we get stuck in this okay? It's and this happens to me, regular. Okay, it's market open, it's 6 a.m. I do this for an hour.

Sometimes i want to trade, but i don't because i'm in the middle of answering people's questions and it's like i miss out on a trade right. So i think what happens? Is you get caught up sometimes in in the routine of of the day-to-day? The day-to-day business - and so i have all this collected research, and it's only when i started when we started earning season and netflix earnings came out and i saw netflix plummet. You know that 20 or whatever it was that's when i started that was sort of that catalyst where i'm like. This is not normal.

Those sort of fluctuations, even though netflix gave bad guidance instead of six and a half mil of user growth. They gave about two and a half mil, i think, which is which is like 35. I mean it's terrible guidance right. That guide made me really nervous and made me go back to that book.

It made me go wait a minute. We have such a miserable guide from netflix one of the fangs. What else do i have in my research? That tells me i need to be careful uh and so the fed minutes, combined with markets, in my opinion, not at all pricing in the the financial uh conditions that we might be up against, plus all of the other earnings that we've gotten since when i sold. But we're more talking about uh.

When i decided to sell uh to me it was. It was a no-brainer to sell. So it was a combination again of federal reserve earnings expectations, cpi catalysts, when i thought cpi would go down and the biggest piece of the puzzle really is this balancing beam that the fed has us on, and that is we are either going to see an inflationary Recession where inflation continues to run, consumer spending goes down now, the sudden, we're basically in a stagnating economy where we have high inflation and a recession which is terrible, and i do not believe the fed will bail us out and i'll explain why, in just a sec Or we go into a deflationary recession, prices fall, consumers stop spending and we go into too much deflation. I don't think that's likely.

I think it's more actually likely that we might go from an inflationary recession to a deflationary recession like that's how we end up getting deflation is going through a recession uh, and i think the best case scenario is we just get supply chains chill out? Inflation starts falling, so we get disinflation and we just recover. That's the best case scenario. Unfortunately, we also got those gdp comps or the gdp release. This was another factor the gdp release came in at.

I think we had an annualized gdp of like 6.9 percent. It was 5.5 percent year over year or whatever we're not going to beat that again next year, and so when i put all these puzzles together, i'm like oh, my gosh. We've got the potential for negative gdp. In q4, 2022 we've got a fed.

That has told us they do not care about asset valuations asset valuations are high, those are a risk, a systemic risk to markets and our economy. In other words, they would prefer that asset prices come down. We have high job openings, which means the fed's going to focus on inflation instead of jobs, and we have high inflation with no end in sight for inflation. When we start putting all these pieces of the puzzle together, the picture became a lot more clear and i think actually a puzzle is a great way to picture it like if somebody threw a bunch of puzzle pieces on my desk, i look at them like okay.

This is in my way, i'm just going to keep making my videos i'm going to keep working, but i slowly put these pieces of puzzle together and then the picture became clear. Oh, my gosh, and so that's why i think it felt so abrupt because it was really the combination of this gdp print and the odds for a negative gdp print next year. Netflix. The fact that the fed is not here to bail out a stock market, the insane balance that the fed has all of these things together for for me, plus the fact that earnings guidance, my expectations were going to be all negative uh which so far they have Been er to me was just a very clear, sell signal so, basically for you, what you're saying is that i think out of all these factors, it's pretty much.

I think netflix was in the middle of these two videos. I believe right. So this was kind of the list. I don't know what you mean in the middle of the videos, so between the two videos, the only thing that really like happened changed is like the netflix earnings came out after you made the initial video right uh.

You know it might sound like superstitious, but probably one of the catalysts that uh. I know it sounds crazy, but one of the things that made me look at those puzzle, pieces, uh and and made me - really sit down and think wait a minute. I need to go through all these puzzle pieces and see if they form anything this. I know this sounds crazy, but it's the truth, uh because you can actually see it on my live stream.

So i have this little thing. It's this little two-factor authentication thingy here from the bloomberg terminal and on may 19th of 2021. I got a code on here that said, pray p-r-a-y and on a live stream. I remember saying: pray, that's weird.

I wonder what that means. Ah, whatever - and i remember saying that uh and so it's on my channel too - it's maine uh february 19th - you can see it and uh the market ended up crashing. You know the next six weeks were terrible. We had a little recovery in april uh.

We got a horrible market in may right, it was terrible, and so i told everyone the next time i see something like that. I'm a cell and i was mostly facetious because i'm not just going to sell off the superstition but uh on uh, like two days before i sold, i got a code and it said sh9 t and the ninth letter of the alphabet is i right, and so I looked at that, i'm like oh, my gosh, there's that same thing that happened on february 19th of 2021. It's just it's a sign, and i don't i don't know if i believe in in you know, karma or whatever or signs or whatever, but that stupid little thing and i know how crazy it sounds. But that made me sit down and say you know what i need to look at those puzzle pieces and that's when i put all the pieces of the puzzle together and i'm like.

Oh, my gosh, that's where the white board came out, that i showed you a picture of that's just one of them. I think we drew like five or six different iterations. That night i mean it was maddening, but obviously that's kind of like a joke. You didn't uh sell because of the people will take you, okay, okay, you have to be careful about how you explain these things, but i think, like on the serious note uh, i think what you're saying is.

Basically, the explanation that i'm getting is is the netflix earnings came out and the the reaction to the earnings, as well as the guidance basically made you kind of re-evaluate everything. And then you were kind of like the guy. The detective standing in front of the board, with all the the little post-its and the pictures and the little flags and then and then you had the like. Oh my god moment right.

Second, i'm imagining this kind of scenario playing out, yeah exactly and - and i think one of the things that folks miss is is let me paint this picture here, because i think this makes a lot more sense is play this scenario out what happens if inflation remains High throughout 2022 and uh in q4, so the next christmas holiday sales are a little bit less than they were in 2021 because we have no child tax credit anymore. No unemployment paid anymore, no stimulus pay anymore. Nothing right, household balance sheets are going to come down. Whatever so now, all of a sudden, you have a slightly less holiday spending in q4, 2022 and then in january of 2023.

We get a negative gdp read well now, if we have a negative gross domestic product, read because people spend less on goods and services, everybody's going to freak out and they're going to look at the federal reserve and they're going to say, fed bail us out you Bailed us out in 1987, and you ended the panic you bailed us out in 2003. You ended the dot-com bubble. You bailed this out in 2009. You ended the recession, you bailed us out in 2018., you ended the crash of of the end of 18..

You bailed us out on march 23 2020, you ended the pandemic pain of the stock market right every single one of those stock market corrections uh, has ended with a bailout by the fed since 1987, every single one has been bailed out and now they can't what Happens if we get a negative gdp, read and the fed says sorry, not bailing you out, because inflation's too high, we got to keep fighting inflation. That is when people freak out that's when we hit a real bottom. So i i'll tell you what i agree and what i disagree with your analysis. I agree that the fed is not in the position to pump more money into the system.

They literally cannot do it anymore. So that part is correct. Um there's no bailouts coming. They just seven percent inflation, and that was a while ago, we're on pace on point two per month, probably going to close out q2 with almost eight, maybe even eight percent, very close to double digits, so ain't happening no more money from the fed.

I agree, however, this presumption, it's very it's a very uh speculative assumption about the gdp. It's it's it's it might or might not happen. Nobody really knows i'm not going to pretend like i know, but there's a lot of speculation in this analysis. So i'll tell you what my take on this and i'll be very honest with you since uh i'm, i'm not going to sit here and understand like like.

I agree with everything so partially. I agree with this. What you're saying about the fed their hands are tied. They can't yeah, but i feel like you can actually fix whatever happened by coming out and saying.

First of all, i think you should turn on comments. I think that was a mistake. Just let people go they're on again yeah, so i didn't even know that. Okay, so that i think smart move, i mean people don't like when dude people accuse me of deleting comments which i don't they don't understand, some of them get filtered so whenever they get up evil when they think that they're getting silenced.

I i that's why i don't do it the only time i delete if it's like racist or i don't want my channel to get shut down like when people used to write this nonsense, um. But here's what my take is on this. I think you can fix everything that happened by saying, listen, dudes and do this there's a lot of work, a lot of blood and sweat that went into this analysis, a lot of it, in fact, maybe all of it is in the course that i'm selling. However, however, there comes a moment, especially in the crazy market, where we are right now, where you have to follow your gut, and everything in my body is burning up telling me that this is the right move and even though i can explain most of it, some Of it is just experience intuition and my gut might be wrong - might be right, but it is what it is and not everything that comes from your intuition can be put into a digital product.

And if you think my course is not as good, because i can't teach you my intuition so be it, but it is what it is. I think if you step back and kind of admit that part people will just back off because you killed any argument against what you just did because by saying well, this is the point i think that's a simple solution. Then everybody can just leave you alone, because i do think - and i agree with ken from chicken genius. I do think that when you're on the top of your game and whenever people talk about financial youtubers, they talk about you.

They talk about graham, like you're. In the top you're in the mountain they all want to tear you down. It is it's just human nature, so a lot of it is coming from jealousy. They know you're making money, mostly because you're transparent about it.

If you, if, if you were shutting up about how much you're making, i think you get less flack, but i mean you're, and you did this to yourself so there's nobody to blame, no, no you're right yeah, i think let's hold on. Let me just tell you something: i think i think honestly, once you do this move, i think people will go back to basically looking at the facts as they stand and the facts as they stand is this guy is working 18 hour days, five or six days. A week he's relentless he's completely honest, even if he's wrong, he doesn't, he doesn't hide or delete stuff and they'll just see it for what it is. They might not like you still, they might hate your thumbnails, like they hate my thumbnails.

They might hate your face. Whatever, but i mean you take away the because i know where it hurts like, i, everyone has their points like you, don't give a when they talk about your thumbnails, like i don't give a you, don't give a when they talk about. You know, kevin. Hey me sell my course bro whatever you don't care about the i don't also but word hurts is like where it hurts for me.

If they say, hey, listen, you're, inauthentic or you're you're, a flip-flop or stuff like that they hurt because they kind of go at the core values of what you are and that's why? I think it hit you so hard because and people who pretend this would not have impacted them are lying. You can't. Oh yeah, oh no. You can't not impact you yeah, it's not like complaining about thumbnails, you know what kevin.

So i think you should. You should just address it and just say: hey. I went with my gut. Let's see what happens, i'm not an oracle, no yeah.

If i'm wrong i'm wrong, it is what it is. That's true, i mean, ultimately, you put all the pieces of the puzzle together and uh. If, if your gut says do something, then then uh you know every every model we create every discounted cash flow. We make everything we do all comes back to our intuition right.

What do we think growth is going to be for a company? What discount rate do we want to use right? All the assumptions ultimately come down to an educated, uh gut reaction, so you're right? How many hours do you sleep at night on average? I was just personally wondering this like four or five uh i mean i try to get you. I try to get six so, but average is probably closer to five and with four or five you feel fine. You feel great invigorating. Oh that's not good! So for me, it's just if i can't get to six, i feel it if, but if i can get five to six, i'm okay, sick, where i feel fine, i can never get more than six, because i have three kids, the youngest wakes up at five, like Yeah, it was clock, so there's never i'm never awake past five anyway.

So i hear you so i i want to give you i want to tell you. I want to end this on the on the note that i'm going to surprise you so, okay, you would never guess and people who think i'm too nice to you. They can go themselves, i don't care, so i don't think i am. I think i'm completely honest, but you would never guess.

What's my favorite video on your channel, is it's not the grand cardone videos, i'm going to tell it now, don't go there there's a video, you would never guess it. There's a video where you did where you went to deal with a very complicated situation where people needed to get evicted and you sit down with them in the in the lawn in the chairs and just talk to them and and solve the problem. You remember that video, the chandler video with chandler yeah, where you just defuse the situation and the way it was done so sensitively and the way how you explained it. I think it was a life lesson: how of how to resolve difficult situations that video was pure gold, although nobody watched that it wasn't like a popular video, but you would have never guessed this that this was my favorite video wow.

Thank you for that yeah. You know it's uh, it's it's that's. What's so great about youtube is, is you can experiment with with things and some people are gon na love it? Some people are gon na hate it, but uh hey. You know, were you stressed out when you were making the when you're approaching like the door and starting this, but do you think it's going to get explosive? Did you know you're going to resolve it? Oh with well, so i was reacting to chandler uh.

You know. I mean uh, i i i think you're um uh, i think you're on to something in terms of uh like analyzing situations and how to how to talk to tenants or diffuse them yeah in terms of the you could see so many different ideas in that video And, and i think that's what you're picking up on is - is the uh the memory of how many different ideas you can get from talking to people and dealing with folks but uh yeah. It was it's a really good, video and uh thanks for shouting that one out but yeah i mean anytime, i think everybody would agree. We want to see more real estate stuff as well.

Yeah, that's a great part, there's nothing to attack there, because you got the experience. You definitely got the track record and people have seen your work and obviously i got to do more real estate. Nobody would go back if i told listen. People who criticize you for not going back to it completely are just not fair.

It's like you. At the end of the day. This is a business. You got a family, you got kids, it's it's a financial, it's a business.

It needs to be viable. There's no business in the world that would go back to a business model that makes seventy percent less income. It's not. It's never happening bro.

No, i would, i would never do it. So what do you think is you think we're at bottom? No, no! I think we're at the bottom and explaining my theory, so i've been very, we have opposing opinions, so how this is how i see it play out. So my initial theory was that, because inflation is, i think, realistically is higher than seven percent. I think cpi's a huge way of looking inflation, but even let's say assuming it's a seven percent inflation, then we're probably talking about all volcker level interest rates that ideally, we would have needed to see to solve this.

Yes, for those who are not familiar, paul volcker was the fed chair in the the jimmy carter area. Then jimmy carter got fired so to speak, reagan came in and they both did their part in killing the stagflation of the 70s, which was a herculean task to his credit, and they did a lot of tough decisions, basically raising interest rates to insane levels and also Deregulating everything lowering tax and basically, basically letting the gdp outgrow the inflation, while interest rates, stop consumption and slow down. So that can't happen in 2022 for the simple reason that we have too much debt raising interest to paul, volcker levels and happening. We can't afford it.

Every percentage point is about 270 billion dollars of of interest that the us has to pay to service the debt and that money has to come from somewhere and if they end up printing that money, then you basically did nothing it's a vicious cycle, so they can't.