Tomorrow we get a huge data release. It's the CPI release. It is the last massive data release of the entire year and it is probably the most critical in this video. We're going to talk about Mastercard's inflation expectations.

We're going to talk about JP Morgan's breakdown of how much stocks may actually move tomorrow, and we'll share a new piece from Nikki leaks along with all my thoughts on it. Hey everyone Me: Kevin Here, due to my ringing of the bell at the New York Stock Exchange and us not having been able to respond to as many emails as we should have yes, we are extending the Pp coupon code for two days only two days December 14th, 11, 59 PM The Pp coupon code will expire for the programs on Building your Wealth trading, Real Estate Investing Property Management the YouTube course, the Real Estate Agent course, and of course the Elite Hustlers course. Check those out via the links down below with the coupon code. It's not as expensive as you might think and it gives you lifetime access.

So in this video, we'll also be revealing my personal thoughts about the CPI data release and what number we might like to see you tomorrow. First, MasterCard suggests that Based on data they're seeing, inflation has peaked and likely will continue to Trend straight down. However, they do think inflation will remain elevated above the levels that we saw Free Covet. In addition to this, we got a report from JP Morgan JP Morgan highlighted quite a few things that were optimistic, and gave us some scenarios of how stocks may move tomorrow.

I will be live streaming at 5 30 a.m I have one more stop and then I will be back home. The University of Michigan survey that came out just recently here showed a preliminary data for December that expectations one year out for inflation are only 4.6 percent based on consumer beliefs. This latest figure is actually the lowest read that we've had in over a year, and it's a nice downturn from the 4.9 expectation we've been used to. Those are just the preliminary numbers, so we'll be getting final numbers in the future, but it's a great move in the right direction.

JPMorgan also tells us that even though the PPI data came in slightly hot in the last report, it's really interesting that if you look at the last, like the first half of the year compared to the current last five months basically the second half of the Year, you'll see that monthly changes average one percent per month over the first half of the year for headline PPI and actually fell to 0.1 percent over just the last five months and the core moved from 0.7 in the first six months to 0.3 of over the last five months, which is actually really, really incredible. Their expectation is that tomorrow's CPI will come in at 7.3 month year over year and point three months over month. I'll be revealing my personal expectation in a moment. We talked a lot about inflation in the course member live stream this morning, and with indices up today, we actually expect the market is expecting that inflation is going to come in in line with expectations.

Here are the scenarios though: from JP Morgan if CPI comes in over 7.8 they believe that has a five percent probability. S P 500 down four to five percent if we get seven and a half to seven point seven, spy down two and a half to three and a half down 25 Probability: if we get 7.2 to 7.4 50 Probability: Based on JP Morgan's opinions, we could see a spy rally of two to three percent. A 6.9 inflation read, which is the lowest potential with just the five percent probability could. Mark The end of the Bear Market it says JP Morgan Goldman Sachs agrees with this: JP Morgan thinks we could see an eight to ten percent rally if we get a 6.9 print instantly.

Goldman Thinks we could see a seven percent plus rally if we get seven to seven point two. Probably more like a four to five percent rally. but if we get anything under seven percent, JP Morgan's basically calling for an end to the Bear Market which is really quite incredible now. I'll go through my estimates in just a moment.

The street is also expecting 7.3 and 0.3 but Nikki leaks gave us a little bit more clarity on the FED today. I Love Nikki Lakes This is Nick from The Wall Street Journal He basically gets texted from the the uh uh you know folks over at the Federal Reserve and we get some opinions and some of the changes that I wanted to highlight which we want to pay attention to in the Fomc meeting in a couple days. They say that the easy lifting is done 75 basis points getting to the restrictive territory. That's the easy part.

The hard part now is not repeating the mistakes of the 1970s. This is where inflation became entrenched as the Federal Reserve tried to repeatedly raise rates, then lowered rates, then raise rates and lowered rates. and that actually LED inflation expectations to become anchored, which was really bad and ended up leading to a pretty bloody Paul Volcker Recession. However, Neil Kashkari had something really interesting to say about this.

Kashkari by the way, is somebody who's been a dove, but he has now flip-flopped to being one of those with the highest expectation for the Fed's terminal rape. Which means he's actually one of the more hawkish individuals now. he said quote when there are recessions triggered by tight monetary policy to crush inflation, the recovery can actually be very quick from that. Now that's really interesting because it stands in contrast to what I've been suggesting that.

I Don't think we're going to see a V-shaped recovery I think we had a v-shape recovery in the pandemic, but I think we're gonna have more of an anchor along, dragging along the bottom floor of the ocean. Recovery That's not so ideal Pat Harker From the Philadelphia Fed suggests: Look, if we pause, we could always hike again. But remember Jerome Powell doesn't want to do that that. So this is where they're having that issue of Okay, maybe we end up having a Fed that in February goes down to 25 basis points.

but then they just keep going and going and going until they get to five, five and a quarter, five and a half or whatever they need to to get inflation down. And so that's going to be What Markets care about most. We're not even close to that Fed U-turn Yet, the only way we get close to a Fed U-turn and rates actually start plummeting is of inflation plummets and their easy possibility of that. Not only are we seeing housing inflation turn, but wage inflation has taken a turn though it's it's been a little stubborn so we're waiting for more data on that and we think by February by the spring we should have some more insight on are we going to get that or not.

And that's obviously why Cash has been probably the best investment lately that certainly hasn't been. Tesla Thanks Elon Musk An economist over at UBS who actually used to work for the Federal Reserve doing wage predictions predicts that inflation will actually plummet. He believes that inflation will plummet to 2.1 percent by the end of 20 23 of 1.6 percent in two years, which actually puts us below two percent again and puts us back into that world of oh no, do we have to go to zero or negative percent interest rates Now What's interesting about this is that Economist was actually quoted by Nikki Leakes and Nikki Leakes is the guy who's talking to the Fed. So I think that's actually pretty bullish along with obviously references to Elon Musk suggesting the recession will worsen if we keep hiking.

Elizabeth Warren saying there's a big difference between Landing a plane and crashing it and a lot of folks saying that look Jerome Powell he's going to Flinch A lot of people think he's not going to say the course of continuing to hike because of what he told us in the last November meeting, which was look, we're gonna hike, but we don't want to cause tremendous human hardship by causing a deep recession. That's actually a flip-flop from what he previously said where he said hey, look, if we over tighten we can always print money again. But I think they realize no, that's probably not a great idea and maybe that's Jerome Powell now. But anyway, okay, look my thoughts.

there are two. Number one: you probably have the buying opportunity of a lifetime with how much uncertainty there is in the market right now. Or just wait for the U-turn and stay in cash or mix a boat. Probably logical.

Most important thing? stay out of debt and minimize your expenses. Don't do what Kevin does right now. but anyway, don't worry about that part. worry about yourself.

So in the meantime, uh, another thing. uh oh, my prediction. So I actually think, don't hold me to it. Okay, but uh, if I'm right I rock if I'm wrong I didn't say this.

Okay, uh I think we're gonna get the expectation is seven, three and point three. I Actually think we're gonna get seven four and point four. That's going to be the same month over month read as we had last month. I Don't think we had enough energy deflation on the month over month to get a 0.3 Uh, and I think 7.4 is actually still a nice Trend To the downside? so we're still moving in the right direction? Uh, look.

Bottom line though, from the Nikki Leaks article, in my opinion, this really hints at the idea of slowing down to 25. We're gonna stay there, wait for the data for a while. It's way too soon to expect any kind of huge fed U-turn and folks, good luck tomorrow. I'll see you at 5 30 A.M.