I may have released a pre-sale for a brand new course. You might want to check that out down below as well. It's different from all of the other courses - hey everyone kevin here in this video we're going to talk about my new three and a half million dollar short we're also going to talk about what i believe is happening in the market right now, why the market is Acting the way, it is why it feels like pain, is coming back to this market. Keep in mind.

If you want all notifications for when i buy or sell stocks, whether i make a new move or a exit, a move check out the stocks and psychology of money program linked down below it's a program on building your wealth through investing in stocks and you'll love. The foundations of building up your knowledge with the psychology of money and learning how this market functions without having to think the market's rigged. Because now you can play the game check it out, get lifetime access to the lectures and you get access to all my buy, sell alerts, and course member live streams when you check it out check it out, along with all the other programs linked down below and Check out before black friday, my black friday sale ads; okay, let's get into what's happening in the market and then we'll talk about this new uh, big short here, okay, so first it's worth noting that a lot of institutional investors, in my opinion and in the opinion Of bloomberg, researchers got into the tech rally a little bit late, they uh and and when they got in late with a lot of money, they ended up pumping up the values for stocks like tesla because they had missed out, in my opinion, lucid rivian, because they Had missed out on tesla runs they pumped up the values for companies like end phase or etsy, or a firm. These are really high quality companies that are trading at pretty expensive valuations.

There's a reason. I've stopped buying these companies many many uh months ago. Well, maybe not many months ago, about two months ago, we had a dip in september right into september, early october. That was a perfect time to buy.

People are always like, oh but kevin. You can't time the market. It's like really like look at september. It's worth looking at it again here, take a peek at it, and then i want you to compare where what the dip is that we have now compared to september.

I think it'll really help give you some perspective. So take a look at this. This was your september dip right here. The end of september dip bottomed on about 9 20 double bottomed on about october 4th, and then we took off like what we're experiencing now is nothing.

I mean look at that. We've barely experienced anything yet. However, this is either going to be an inflection point or we're going to break through and see something where we end up trading under the 20-day moving average again for a few weeks as individuals are concerned about well what they're concerned about in this market. Now i'm going to talk about exactly what the concerns are in this market because uh, not not.

Everyone believes that the market could be at an inflection point and that it might rotate to the downside and that's okay, like honestly i'd. Rather it not take a look at where the selling pressure is located. It's mostly not in the dow. The dow is relatively flat up 0.11, but it's in the s p, and it's especially in the nasdaq nasdaq technologies down 1.5 today, but the s p also down about half of a percent okay cool.

So why is this happening? Well, i believe it's because we had a lot of institutional investors get into technology stocks relatively late, okay, fine, so they pushed up valuations to do crazy highs. Now, what like, why? All of a sudden would prices be falling for these companies? What's the problem? Why are we seeing a sell-off, especially after jerome powell got renominated like we were uncertain that if the federal reserve ends up getting a new nomination of somebody totally different, then that would increase market uncertainty which would could lead to a potential market sell-off? Because, well, we don't know how another fed person would act right. Well, something very interesting is happening and it's kind of the same thing in reverse. The market is actually a little bit concerned that jerome powell is going to take longer to respond to inflation and because he's potentially going to take longer to respond to inflation, we're going to end up with more inflation for longer, and while this transitory inflation lasts longer.

We're starting to see the bond market and the stock market price in the fact that we might have to discount future earnings of higher valuation companies. More now i'm going to talk about my big short in just a moment, but i want to talk about the 10-year treasury. Look at the 10-year treasury from when jerome powell was re-nominated and compare it to where we stand now. So what we're going to do is we're going to go to the 5-day, because we know jay powell was re-nominated on monday monday was the 22nd? Take a look at this 10-year treasury yields on friday had fallen to a new low or recent low of about 1.53.

As soon as j-pal was already nominated, treasury yields jumped up to about 1.59 and they've, been on a steady climb since then heading to about 1.662. If market history gives us any guide as to how much the market might price in treasury yields rising and how much longer pain could last in this market, it's worth taking a look at what we previously had in september october and in march through may, take a Look at this in september, when we first started having pain in the market, we went from treasury yields of about 1.27 all the way up to about 1.53. So we got that big dip in the s p: 500 dip one with a .2 change on the 10-year treasury. The pain continued with another 0.1 change in the treasury, so we could get a whole 0.3 percent change a whole 3.3 change.

From from where we started, the beginning of the week could put us somewhere in the range of 1.72 to 1.82, which take a look at this. If we go to the big sell-off that we had earlier in the year that led to the pain in march april and may we had an explosion of yields from about 1.15 all the way up to about 1.73. Now, that's a lot larger of a move. That's about a point: six percent move much more substantial, but we were coming off some pretty dang low lows so instead i would probably look at this as a little bit more of a chartist and i would say, hey we might see yields easily pop back up To 1.72, not necessarily to a new high of around 1.8, i certainly think sitting around this 1.7 1.6 number is very realistic and that's kind of the peak that we saw in october as well uh and we're almost there right we're at 1.66.

So i what i mean by this is, i think the market still has some room to price in pain if the 10 years run all the way up to 1.8 1.82. I expect tech will continue to sell off and we could see a nice little by the dip opportunity before the end of the year, we'll see what ends up happening because, as we know, markets are difficult to predict. But what do you know about my portfolio? Well, you know that i'm pretty dang long about 15 of my money is not invested in the market. Well, with the exception of now.

My big short so we'll talk about that in just a moment, but uh most of my money is in so about 85 percent of my money is in this market long. So that means when tesla's down seven percent. It's a painful day when etsy and phase affirm when these companies fall it's a painful day, but the value of the portfolio falls a lot and fast. So i wanted to find a way to short this market without having to have the massive risk of buying short-term puts and then seeing them quickly.

You turn on me now. Don't get me wrong. I love the idea of buying short-term, puts against something like a rivien or a lucid. I think and not financial advice.

Nothing in this video shall be construed as financial advice, but i love the idea of shorting rivian darn it. I should have shorted it like 10 minutes ago because it was green and it's just started falling, but anyway i love the idea of shorting rivian. I love the idea of shorting lucid. I love it because i think these companies are substantially over valued now.

Shorts are a little expensive, like soul puts or i'm sorry purchase puts, are a little expensive on rivian a little expensive on lucid right now, uh. But if the eevee sector ends up coming to a halt, having a short position against uh, lucid and rivie in a put position against these would be a very good idea and actually what i might do now, the more that i think about it. I might actually increase my short, and i'm probably going to do this - i'm probably going to buy some some options against lucid and rivien as well, but they're going to be a lot smaller than my big short. That's because when you buy like 30 day puts or 25 day puts, the value of these puts can move very very quickly.

You can make a lot of money really fast, but you could also lose a lot of money very, very quickly now to some degree, if the market in ebus rallies, my tesla will take me to the moon. It's fine like i'll, just have a little bit less moon money. If the market in evs plummets i'm going to get killed on tesla, i think lucid and rivian will fall twice as hard as tesla. That's not necessarily the case today, but in the long run i i believe that uh and having a short position against them would probably be a good idea.

I honestly don't know if i would go for december or january. At this point, i might pay the extra and go for a january put, but we'll see just in case you have an end of the year kind of profit-taking cycle. But what is my real big short? Okay, you ready for this. Let me give you a little bit of information first, because it's going to help you kind of understand why i'm making this bet and i'm of course going to mention again.

You should really check out the programs on building your web link down below and use that black friday coupon code, and then we can have a conversation about this in our in our live streams uh, but anyway uh. Here's here's a stat that you need to know at the start of the fourth quarter. Hedge funds had 33 exposure to high growth and high valuation companies, which are companies that exceed 10 times sales. The start of the fourth quarter was october, and that was really dip time and that number, in my opinion, has substantially increased.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of hedge funds have closer to 50 exposure to high growth and high valuation companies. Remember a lot of hedge funds like to hedge, and if hedge funds start hedging more then we'll get a less buying pressure on technology. When we have less hedge fund buying pressure on technology, technology is more likely to full because as people sell - and there are less buyers, prices come down. But in addition to having less buying pressure on technology.

Because it's no longer the sexy thing right now. Because everybody's making fun of it, i think hedge funds are likely to hedge, which means shorting and potentially making similar plays to what i'm making. I just want to be earlier than them at doing this. Now i've already shorted the market once very, very profitably, and i'm doing it again today and so i'm going to show you a lower risk short that i'm making uh and the reason as well that i think institutions are the ones uh sort of at the center Of a lot of the sell-off that we have right here is take a look at this.

I'm going to pull this up. This was a the video clip from yesterday's live stream and take a look at this. Nvidia falls about an hour before the close and really sells off going into the close right. Let's fast forward, yesterday's live stream.

Look at that it just kind of keeps falling into the clothes and look at that volume - that's not retail volume roller coasting these stocks down. This is end phase that volume at the close, that's institutional volume. In my opinion, i can't know for sure, but that's usually when institutions close and when they hedge towards the end of the day. So you get these roller coaster sell-offs, but it wasn't just an nvidia or an face.

It was in neo. It was in jp morgan, which implies index selling or index hedging apple, also index shorting index. Hedging. Look at those falls into the close here.

Folks, google paypal net. These guys were selling off into the close, very typical institutional sell-off period. So i think it's possible that fear is going to return to these institutions and we're going to have a little bit more pain longer for for a lot of these different companies. So what do i want to do to short the market where i'm not going to get rich, really quick, but i hopefully also won't get killed really quickly right and that's that's important because with a short position again you get puts you get destroyed, you could get Destroyed very very, very quickly, so it's high risk.

Well, there's a new product that came out, i'm not sponsored by them, but i am invested in their product and it's called s arc and that stands for short arc short arc is up 14, since they launched a couple weeks ago. They use swaps to basically short the underlying securities in arc, invest, and so the way this works is if arc invest goes up. This goes down if arc invest goes down. This goes up now.

Unfortunately, at the time of this, recording arc kind of has been going straight down all day, but we're having a little bit of a push up here right now, which this would just be so much more beautiful. If i were recording this while it was going down. But that's okay, it doesn't matter so much. This is arc k and so as arc k is going up, we're going to expect s arc to go down.

So let's go on over to s arc here it is it's up 4.5 today and there you go it's showing a little bit of a rotation to the downside. Now i have about one actually do i have five hundred. Oh sorry, i have 100 000 shares of s arc. My plan is to stay in this position very, very briefly, like i don't want to be in this for the long term, i don't want to short cafe short the market for the long term.

This to me is probably a play that i'm interested in making for the next couple weeks and that's specifically because i'm looking for a dip in the market. If this market sell-off reverses and stocks start rallying again kind of like how the market responded in a weird way this morning - and we get a little bit of a rally again this morning, then this isn't going to do too well and i'll probably close my position. I expect my downside risk is maybe 10 because it's not like a leveraged. It's not like an option.

If, if i see you know trends, changing treasury yields falling tech going back up, i could easily step out of this position. Small hedge, but the more my technology stocks sell off the more i'm bleeding and i have, in my opinion, a relatively cheap insurance policy against at least a portion of my portfolio against about 12 percent of the portfolio. If uh, if, if arc and tech continue to sell off, this should be a tool for giving me more money in a dip, and i think that's cool is that if i can have money not just in cash on the side, but some of it in an S arc, where it's relatively low risk, i'm not going to lose a lot of money. In my opinion, no guarantees like i'm, not a financial advisor.

I can't tell you this is low risk, but what i believe is potentially lower risk, certainly compared to options right uh. If uh, if you know this, this ends up, if the market ends up crashing, uh and and tesla sells off, 20 30 percent arc invest, sells off 20 or whatever cool i'm gon na have 20 more money to go, buy the dip. If the market rallies great, i'm gon na be making a killian killing on my tech stocks and uh. Here on my s arc position, i'm gon na lose a little bit uh.

You know 10 15, whatever, but i'll, probably close that position as soon as i see kind of a u-turn in the market uh. I watch the market pretty regularly and, of course, once i cycle out of this i'll i'll definitely be um as always sending an alert to everybody in the stocks and psychology of money, group, uh and so really keep it. The cool thing is what you really just have to do is watch what our k does, because s arc is going to do the opposite. We're seeing a little bit of potential by the dipping uh right now, but then again we saw that throughout the day and then we ended up go pulling back to lowe's.

So obviously, on the minute candle sticks you're going to have you're going to have some pain. You look at the hour candle stick or the day candle stick on arc. Look at this we've really kind of just started selling off here you. It makes you wonder.

If we're going to get back down to mellows, i wouldn't be surprised if we do so. Maybe another 10 drawdown no guarantees, though generally i'm long in this market. I don't like to short the market, so there you have it. Thank you so much for watching this video check out the programs, i'm building your wealth down below and check out the pre-sale for the new course as well.

Alright, folks.