NVIDIA (NVDA) is a company that provides computing platform solutions to four broad markets: Gaming, Data Centers, Professional Visualization, and Auto. In this video I will show you why I think NVDA stock might not only be a good fundamental investment, it might also be one of the best inflation proof stocks in the stock market right now.
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So this is kind of interesting. I think nvidia of all companies might just be one of the best inflation proof stocks in the market. Right now, i'm not even kidding you now a few months ago. I said this is a 200 stock.

I got out after writing. From 130 to 200, but now i think i was wrong looking deep into this company, i completely missed the real growth engines of nvidia and looking at the company right now, i think i was really mistaken about how good it is. I think that the main growth engines for this company, which i completely missed in my initial analysis just a few months ago, are not really the consumer business. I think the growth engines are coming from elsewhere, ai cloud computing, autonomous driving e-commerce, the whole remote business.

These are the real strengths of this company, especially in inflationary times. Now, here's the thing they have every single thing you can think of that's really good for inflation. They have pricing power, they're, pretty much monopolizing the market. At this point, their cash flow is insanely phenomenal.

As i'm about to show you their cash to date, ratio is really good and their scalability is scary. I mean they can scale without spending a lot on capex. It's really kind of insanely terrifying for their competitors. My mistake was focusing on the consumer business.

I'm not going to make the same mistake again and i think i might be loading up on a lot of nvidia to prep myself for inflation. But then again you know this is just my opinion might be. Inaccurate might be wrong, might be the ramblings of a madman. Go right ahead, pull back a chair.

Let's do this, so the first thing we got to take a look at is the dcf right here i have my ebitda growth for the next five years. As you can see, i have it at 50 growth per year now we do have to say rest in peace to the 28 corporate tax which improves our dcf quite significantly and, as you can see right here, only three billion dollars in topics. I don't know how this company gets so much cash flow, so much margin with so little capex investments, but check me on this and you'll see. This is quite terrifying and again this is one of the strong suits for inflation that i just mentioned.

At 10 discount rate, which is still quite significantly higher than any interest rate, as we can see in the near future, just to be in the conservative side, a four percent long-term growth rate and 18 multiplier. By the way, this was my mistake in the first dcf that i did, i think i used a 12.. This is definitely way more technology and innovative company, rather than a manufacturer of you know hardware. So it's definitely not 12..

I don't think it's yet 25, but it's definitely should be priced at 18. and giving all that we have a 331 dollars and a half for perpetual approach: 388 dollars for the ebitda approach and a total average of 365 dollars compared to the current 296 dollars. We have a 23.3 upside for nvidia and i think that's not even considering the arm deal or inflationary impacts, that's just nvidia being nvidia. I think we have a bigger upside, but let's look at it.
When we hit 365. and looking at tip ranks, you can see, the consensus is quite the same 360. That's what we have from wall street analysts right now. I swear to god.

I didn't look at this before i did my dcf, but it's kind of reassuring to know that they're thinking the same thing that i am, we have a high number of analysts right here and an average upside at 22 and a half percent the highest. We have currently 400 and the average is 360. lowest is 285, which is pretty much just ten dollars below the current price. I can show you some of these, but you'll see that they're all pretty much the same so based on only five star analysts, as you can see, which is what i started right here, nobody's giving it a sale everybody's, giving it upside, not a single analyst on This list is giving us a cell.

We can go individually into these five star analysts but they're. All quite qualified and you'll see that everybody sees the thing that i missed in my valuation just a few months ago and i'm honest enough to admit that i made a huge mistake, but now i'm here to set the things straight now, as you can see, nobody Is shorting the stock point? Nine four percent, less than one percent of smart money - is shorting the stock rightfully so it doesn't make any sense to short it, but let's see how overvalued it actually is, which i don't think it is check this out and here's the two metrics that matter that Actually are not being told to you ev sales and price to sales, how much this company is generating cash flow versus how much it's trading for so ev sales is 26.98 price to sales is 27.56, so under 30 on both now it's not a cheap company, but Under 34, ev sales and price to sales seems to be right in the realm of palantiy right now at 20. So, even though you can't really say that nvidia is a cheap company, it's definitely not overvalued. Look! It's a company that generated 24.2 billion in sales in the past 12 months.

If you just go back five years, they had five. They went from five to twenty four point: two, that's almost a 5x growth in revenues in five years, but what you're? Seeing on the screen right now is even more impressive: their growth of operating income went even higher while the business grew 5x. The operating income grew from 800 to 8 billion, 10x, almost 10x, so from 5x revenue they generated 10x operating income, that's insanely, efficient and again another strong suit for inflation. Prep look at this.

They have 19.3 billion in total cash. Now 19.3 billion. Now look at the debt. The debt is 11.8, which means we have over 7 billion of extra cash versus debt which they can repay today, but there's no reason just cheap interest.

Once the interest rate goes up, once inflation hits they can easily erase this debt and still have 7 billion of cash on hand, which shows me they're, definitely prepared for inflation and looking at the balance sheet, look at this 40.6 billion assets. Now they do have some goodwill here, which is about four, so let's say it's: 36 right: 36 billion in assets - 16.8, let's say 17 in liabilities, so more than 2x assets versus liabilities. This company is prepped, prepared it's as pristine as my grandpa's bed. The new is morning you know he's not going to be in it.
We're going to have to look for him in a dumpster look at their growth numbers revenue growth this year was 64 next year, still expected to do over 40 revenue growth. I think they're actually going to repeat this now. Also look at the profitability. 64.4 gross margin.

Look at this ebitda margin, 40 net income margin. 33.8. I mean this is insane. These are monopoly numbers now, if you assume this consistent level of growth for this company, which i do, i think i was a fool for saying that this is a 200 company.

I think it's way higher. In fact, our current price just specifies that at 365, but i have a hunch, we're not going to stop right there and looking at this. This might be opportunity it's down 8 in the past 30 days. So i think, if you're looking for a nice entry point for the stock and you're ready to admit your mistake, like i am 296 295 might be the way to go.

But again just my opinion might be an accurate, not a financial advisor. Please do your own research, but i personally think this is a really attractive entry point to get this company at a reasonable price and by the way, if you want to play around with this dcf, you just saw on the screen it's available to download on our Patreon page, you can join it's five bucks per month, plus you know, you'll be supporting the channel. You can participate in our zoom calls you'll be getting access to our new website, which is coming up quite soon. A lot of good stuff.

You can subscribe below five bucks per month, but again this is not mandatory. If you want to watch this video - which i did about nikola right here, why it's great i'm just kidding, i'm just kidding if you do want to watch a video about another great inflation stock, which is by the way tesla. I did make a video which will be right here and since we're coming up on christmas, if you want to give me a christmas gift, i never ask this, but you can subscribe right here. If you want to.

Thank you so much we'll see you tomorrow, you.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

35 thoughts on “I just found the ultimate inflation proof stock”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Thiago Straioto says:

    Tom do me a favor and check the most amazing stock that you can ever see on the semiconductors industry .
    On Semiconductor you are gonna thank for that! 💪

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Min Bartoe says:

    You found PLTR and didn’t work out well for many with high average. I think we need to be mindful.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars soo jung says:

    I hope it go down to $250 and below to load the boat

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jim Haley says:

    Totally agree with you Tom on this one. My cost basis is $140.26 and I’m looking to add more because the meta-verse is going to take this to the moon🚀 let’s not forget we’re going to take back what we gave to China as far as intellectual property and manufacturing.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kris Krispy says:

    Tom you are way way off on your PLTR price target man lol

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Brandin Medina says:

    I need nivida to drop some more

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars QT T says:

    Tom,
    What about AMD? What you think?

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars wei gg says:

    Amd is much cheaper and much more room to grow. Nvidia will be over run by Amd in next two years, same as intel. Good luck.

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Peter says:

    Here's the thing. AMD and NVDA are both buys for me right now, regardless of the current prices. The reason is that we're still new to the digital age, and both these companies will be dominant in the world to come. If you've ever played Civilization, these 2 companies are like having the production hammers. And the fact that so many people are scared to buy into them at the high prices just goes to show how people really don't yet fully understand how important the technologies of these companies will be in the next 10 years. If you're scared to buy, then don't. But if you can afford to let your money sit for a while I cannot help but recommend NVDA and AMD.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Supa Matta says:

    I cant believe amd dissed all the drama of the past years in every direction repeating the pattern once again. Nvidia wanna buy but added a trillion almost in cap, concerning !

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ricky Curley says:

    I made a lot shorting it…. One thing you need to look at, was it’s trading price PRIOR to the ARM announcement. That was a 60+b deal that gave them a lock on the product used by apple, fb, etc. prior to that announcement, they traded at 230-240.. after that, they went to 280 overnight, and after earnings went to 340. Be careful on this stock, so many got burned thinking it’s too big to fail. I have a high price at 280ish after next earning call, but they should be around 260.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars bench of lemons says:

    Absolutely not!!!

    You NEED to bring some engineers on your channel to talk about RDNA3

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars khalilSUP says:

    They held it down today because they had massive lotto calls from the 300-310 range. I think it runs next week!

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars base4267 says:

    I need one more bluchip to my portfolio. I dont own Nvidia, Amazon, or Google. Which one would you pick to start DCA Tom? Thanks. Great video and analysis Tom. Holding all my bluchips for 10 plus years

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mike The Stock Impaler says:

    👍 Great stuff Tom, as usual, but don't you think NVDA will at least temporarily get smacked down with all the "Growth Stocks" sometime early in the new year, based on the anticipated higher interest rates? I did watch your recent video where you talked about how seemingly the market isn't really factoring in higher interest rates yet, as they almost "don't believe" it to be true unless & until they finally see them materialize… Just curious as to how much weight you give to a potential drawn down of NVDA despite their "fundamentals" & true ability to weather inflation, as you just laid out for us. Won't they still be subject to market psychology & what may be an almost across the board draw down in "growth stocks" in general? Thanks, as always….

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Cain Ra says:

    Your granpa sounds like an interesting man

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ThomasHardenFishing says:

    Thanks for the information.👍👍 If I could afford it right now, I would add 15 shares of PLTR instead.😊

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Red Beard Green Thumb says:

    So the two biggest positions in my portfolio you think are inflation proof, HELL YEAH

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ron Thomas says:

    Nice evaluation! Good Job 👍
    NVDA is down a little just due to recent market selloffs because of excessive FUD.

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Pawnlust says:

    You have to bake in a lot for this valuation to be justified and if we really do get continued high inflation, multiples will compress. If the 10Y even hits 1.7, I bet you'd see Nvidia at least $25 lower.

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Rock says:

    What do you think for $X for inflation

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars elcheguevarra says:

    put 50% in AMD and 50% in NVDA and you're outperforming the next 5 years. I am a Lisa Su fan so AMD is my strongest conviction, just passed in front of Tesla

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kerrie says:

    I still have AMD would you swap it for NVDA?

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Francis Fukuyama says:

    And there was I thinking that a company growing at more than 50% annually would be a good inflation-proof bet. Hmm… who on Earth could that be?

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars DiscreetBtm xxx says:

    I’ve made my day seeing your THUMBNAIL pic 🎉🎊🥳🍾🍻🎄

    NVDA & TSLA are inflation proof as per your postings ✅🌈🚀. THANKS 🙏

    Merry Xmas 🎄

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Garfield Grant says:

    PLTR has no doubt are they gonna do well in inflationary times?

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars 310 TechRepair says:

    Tom, been subbed for months and love your channel. Thoughts on ALLK on the next video ?

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Garfield Grant says:

    What about the government suing NVIDIA on the ARM deal?

  29. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars MrKZdemos says:

    You finally came to your senses thomas

  30. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars YorkshireMan says:

    Chip shortage will hit Nvidia hard over the next 12 months.

  31. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Danny Kim says:

    Best inflation stock is visa or master. Their revenue is %commission of each transaction regardless of what you purchase. The more inflation goes up, the more they profit. Hyperinflation would be their wet dream.

  32. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Smiley Stevie says:

    Great financial analysis of Nvidia company. Thanks, Tom.

  33. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars hraqhraq says:

    nvidia stock got hammered in the past months, so it is not the best because it is overvalued and subject to get hammered again, only load it when it is cheap or on every dip

  34. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars SM - USA says:

    Sad you sold! U needed the money?!

  35. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars David Kamnitzer says:

    When you finish your inflation list, would you pick your five top picks and we could create our own little individual portfolios?

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