Hey everyone we kevin here, i figured it out. This is exactly what happens every time after we buy the dip in this stupid, dumb convictionless market. Here we go all right folks. Well, after that, shell shock, we've got a lot to talk about, and we've got to go deep on some very important things.

First, we're going to talk about of a fed minutes warning that actually came from jp morgan. I thought this was very interesting. We're going to talk about this, we're going to talk about an evacuation happening in russia, we're going to talk about which stocks are holding up and are they potentially a value trap we're going to talk about some critical levels that you've got to write down for ta? We also have to talk about inflation and some special things that folks are trying to say oh inflational, peak in april, because it was so high last year, but wait a minute. Is there a little bit more under the hood that we got to talk about? Regarding that talk about a little bit of a btc heads up, a portfolio update, small portfolio, update for me and uh, we'll talk about some other stocks hitting low, so we got a lot to cover here.

Let's get right into it! This video is brought to you by masterworks by the link in the description down below and, of course, if you think we are potentially heading into rough times, and you want to prepare yourself to make sure you're aware of potentially when the best buy back into stocks Or how to get the best deal in real estate, especially if the market starts rotating down in real estate, check out the programs on building your wealth down below. You want to learn those before we potentially have rough times ahead in the markets, so check that out via the link in the description below okay - let's get into this, so look: we've known this since uh december january. At this point - and i've warned about this coming for earnings season - that bad news is bad news and good news is also bad news and that's because some of the guidance that we're getting just isn't as peachy as we would hope and we're facing these potential fears That if growth slows at the same time as we have high inflation and the fed has to choose, they might end up choosing to fight inflation, pushing us into a forced recession which would not be good. That's obviously not what we're looking for.

Others are now trying to create stagflation etfs. So that way you can invest your money instead of into like an innovation. Etf, like kathy wood, but into a stagflation, etf, that'll, invest your money into a mix of gold, real estate and uh, and cash, which is kind of surprising, especially since mortgage rates are skyrocketing and uh. Some folks are starting to wonder: is it possible that we could start seeing some slow down in real estate pricing? But first, let's talk about jp morgan and their warning about the minutes.

So kelsey barrow was on bloomberg this morning and she mentioned that the fed minutes in january were missing, something that were talked about in december. They did not include as many references to transitory, gradual, steadily and measured as we have previously had in other meetings. Now, in december, we saw the removal of things like transitory and some of these others, but one thing that was present in the december meeting was a reference to how, in the past, they had reduced rates in a gradual and predictable manner that they had offloaded. The balance sheet in a gradual and predictable manner.

This was missing from the january minutes, and this is really because we are starting to see the federal reserve turn a little bit. Even the more dovish members are turning a little bit realizing. We might have to get a little bit more aggressive. Now we're going to talk more about doves versus hawks, but kelsey at jpm mentioned that the big thing the fed should do right now is if the market starts pricing in that 50 basis, point hike in march.

The fed should absolutely take it. The fed has to regain that credibility and show they can actually fight inflation and we're starting to see a little bit of this shift amongst the doves and the hawks. Remember the doves at the fed are folks who generally want to go slowly and measured and just want to wait for the data to improve and the hawks are those of the fed who are like. No, we got to deal with this.

We potentially have to vulcar the economy, which is a reference to paul volcker in the 80s raising rates to like 18 percent to stamp out inflation, forcing an ugly recession. Now, what we heard, obviously from bollard over the this last week here is that he wants rates to be one percent uh by the summer by july, first, but he's a hawk, but over the last 24 to 36 hours. We also heard from some of the more dovish folks like loretta mester, and she says that rates should rise faster than after the great recession and says the fed will have to move more aggressively unless there's a material change in the economy. Aka, all of a sudden inflation, finally, rotating down barkin who's, also a dove previously said he has to be convinced for a 50 basis.

Point hike but recently has started saying that uh-oh we are actually starting to see inflation broaden much beyond just autos and pandemic-related industries, suggesting that maybe barking could actually get convinced and mary daley. While she's been regularly telling us hey. We don't want to move too abruptly to potentially destabilize the economy. She is also keeping her eyes on those two dates coming up in march march, 4th jobs report and march 10th cpi report to see if the fed's going to have to act substantially more aggressively than they had been.

Not so great, especially when you start seeing the doves soften you're, probably going to get more of a unanimous aggression to deal with inflation, it's probably too soon to tell if the fed's actually going to have any kind of split vote like the supreme court uh. You know how they could split votes, and then you see this dissension and then things become a little bit more unclear now. The federal reserve did also announce that they're going to ban officials from trading stocks, bonds and crypto, which some folks on social media are reacting to with darn. I wish they kept trading stocks because maybe they'd keep our stocks up then, anyway, in seriousness.

Let's talk about russia briefly here there are currently disputes in europe about how to potentially sanction russia. For example, italy doesn't want energy sanctioned too much, because it will contribute too much to rampant inflation that, even if there is an invasion in ukraine, italy's like okay, but let's just maybe not sanction like oil, gas and other issues with russia, because we kind of need A cheaper flow of energy right now, there's also discussion that, or the latest estimates rather show that there might be as many as 190 000 troops near the border of ukraine, which is a substantial increase from last week's estimate of 130 000 troops. We're also seeing new images being taken of new helicopters being delivered uh to sites around ukrainian borders. We also know that there are joint military exercises expected and scheduled for february 20th, so it's possible that the new artillery being moved into place and gunships helicopter gunships are being in a place there for these exercises, but we're also seeing new military field hospitals prop up, Which folks are saying? Well, okay, but maybe those hospitals are for training accidents and it's like all right all right, maybe, but some pretty big hospitals are popping up at the same time, the us again is warning of imminent russian invasions with tanks, cyber attacks and jets, and you have separatists In the donetsk, uh, probably not saying that right, i'm trying to do my best donna region, evacuating as many as seven hundred 000 individuals - and these are pro-russian individuals who live in eastern ukraine who are like it's done.

The gtfo we've also had rejections for bilateral and trilateral talks in this particular region between leaders and uh and country leaders, so regional leaders and country leaders it's a problem when talks start breaking down and people start gtf owing not so good. Now we're starting to see a little bit of interesting activity in bonds and that we're actually seeing bond deals start falling now. We've talked about this in prior days here, but one thing that happened here was we actually just attracted 7.4 billion dollars of foreign money into our treasury bonds. This is one of the largest inflows that we've seen over the last decade and oftentimes this.

This could be a sign of a fear and when you get these sort of inflows, especially uh into the 10-year treasury, you will see yields come down. That's because, as more people buy these bonds, the price of the bonds goes up driving that yield down. So, even though the stock market is falling and folks like to say, oh well, when yields go up, you know tech goes down tech's still going down today, despite the fact that yields are going down, so that relationship doesn't work too well, especially because we have to Consider that for and flight to safety aspect now, obviously, inflation fears are continuing and there are a lot of folks that are referencing. This idea that oh well, inflation was so high.

The cpi reading year over year, was so high in april of 2021. Then maybe maybe what that means is we'll have a lower read this april that that maybe that's when we're going to see the p. So, unfortunately, you have to go under the hood a little bit more here to to understand this. But first we got to talk about masterworks and then i'll show you the trick here.

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Well thanks masterworks for that. So let's get back to this here. Look at this okay, folks, what they're doing let's zoom in here this is the same lewis. Fred all this is the nominal cpi.

Read remember: this is a basket that starts at essentially a hundred and then how much does the basket cost year after year after year, month after month and the basket doesn't cost a hundred dollars anymore? The basket now costs 281 dollars right so anyway, what some folks are saying is hey. Well, inflation really started popping off in april of last year right here. You see this increasing slope here and what we can do is we can actually edit this graph just to see this a little bit easier here. Let's do percent change from a year ago.

There we go and then let's get a little bit closer. So that way, you could get a little bit of a better idea in terms of what people are thinking so see. This blast off right here in march and april right here. This explosion in inflation well folks think that maybe, when we lap that here and we hit april and march here - and i know i'm blocking it a little bit there - we go when we hit april and march over here - maybe we'll we'll have a lower inflation, read Because we will be comparing to these already higher points.

The problem, though folks, is this section right here is high, not because inflation was necessarily high here. It's because we were comparing back into this hole. Look at that hole see april over here. This is the percent change right here.

So, of course, when you compare into this whole of the pandemic, you're going to have a high inflationary, read right here, so this this opium, unfortunately that oh well, inflation is definitely going to peak because look how high it was. Uh, you know this, these spikes that we're going to have to compare to that might call for lower inflation. No, that was just us coming out of a hole. Now we got to report the inflation.

That's coming on top of the hole, it's it's a disaster. So so you know as usual, when it comes to economics, things can go so deep uh and it's very simple for folks just to look at like surface level. Information and say, oh see, there's good news. Look i i want that to be good news too.

That's why i researched this i'm like is that good news and then i look. I go nope can't use that as good news, it's exhausting anyway. Uh this morning, we had roku complain about a lack of tv panels and expensive shipping costs. They also said that said something that no investor wants to hear.

This is obviously a very big kathy wood position here. This is something that no innovation investor wants to hear. Is the following: quote: we've taken our foot off the investment gas pedal, essentially just to get by right now, in other words, they're, not investing in innovation or capex, even though they're an innovation company, because they're dealing with all these inflationary costs, draftkings gave us low guidance On users and higher costs, it's all about the guide with earnings right now, fox news, i mean this is no surprise. They're, passing out more inflation fud talking about how our defense department is, and the wall street journal did a piece on this like two weeks ago.

So i feel like they're two weeks late on this, but whatever uh about how. Essentially the defense department is burning through the money that our military has much faster because they don't hedge against inflation and they're getting screwed. So, unless biden gives the military a larger budget, our military is going to start having to cut thanks to inflation. Now redfin also complained about higher construction costs, which is something that we've heard earlier this week as well from the national association of home builders.

Unfortunately, redfin is still in that eye buyer world, where they're still doing flips, and these are money losing flips, that they're doing and the costs of materials are just absolutely destroying them. Remember zillow got out of this business and that's actually treating the zillow stock quite well. Ford briefly talked about the idea of maybe considering splitting the ford electric vehicle business from the ford ice business, but they seem so confused about how to reorganize whether to fully reorganize or to internally reorganize. But a lot of people are just throwing their hands up wondering what are you doing for and then investing in a tesla.

Now i do want to give a small, quick little update on my portfolio. Look. Obviously, since i sold a lot of my stocks that i was holding are down substantially more one of the ones, that's up a little bit more from when i sold, but fractionally only is n phase. Uh end phase is sitting around, maybe like four dollars higher than what i sold.

I mean we're talking about two percent here, but otherwise i hate to say it tesla's way down so far his way down, uh uh, robin hood's down matter ports down whatever it just it sucks. I feel so bad. You know, and i know that there are individuals out there who are like kevin - how? How could you, how could you say, buy the dip and then sell? Look, i never told people to buy the dip. While i was selling right, i was buying the dip, because that's what i was programmed to do, i always buy the dip until all of a sudden.

It hit me that this j-power crap is probably going to lead to a really bad 20. 22 long story short right and this potential cyclical change that we have to deal with now, i'm waiting for a u-turn to where i decided uh-uh, i got ta get out, and i told everybody about that within 36 hours. I i i don't know i ca. I don't feel like i can do any better than that, but a very brief update on my position so uh and and i hate being transparent, because then people like over analyze, everything i do and they're like.

Oh well. If you would waited a day, you would have gotten a better deal or oh well, if you did this, did you shut up like people are so wanting to comment on other people and it's so toxic and nauseating? Because it's like you, get off your ass and do something you know: people just want to be little keyboard bullies anyway, so uh i did buy some long positions and not much. I don't want to be more than ten percent long and so right now my portfolio consists of two uh 7.5 percent long shares. That doesn't mean i won't trade them.

It just means that those are bullish. Long means bullish shares. I am 2.5 in gold, i'm zero percent short and the rest is cash. So that puts me at about 89 to 90 cash still right now and uh, and really building a little bit of a long position is not a signal at all that we've hit any indication of a u-turn because we haven't, i just decided.

I didn't want to be 100 cash or 95 cash. I wanted to be more 90 cash, so i built a little bit of a long, a little bit of gold, uh and uh, and then the rest is cash. So uh just a little bit of an update for you there now, let's do a little bit of technicals okay. So first, let's look at btc here and now.

One of the things i got to say about btc is we're in a disgusting no man's land. Here, okay and i hate this - i will say that first of all, hats off to btc, it has performed substantially better than the qqq uh over the last uh. You know i would say since since probably the beginning of january here i mean look at this from the beginning of january. From january, 1st btc is moved from about 45 000 to about 40 000.

Okay. So let's go 40 divided by 45. That means we're down about 11 percent here right now, qqq, which is our our technology index. Here we go to the day chart and we go to jan 1, our qqq on jan 3, because there is no opening on january.

It was about 3.99 now we're sitting at 343 343, hey like the the studios that does halo anyway, 3.99 uh. That puts us down about 14, so pretty wild to see btc actually outperform qqq when qqq the nasdaq is supposed to be a diversified way of getting exposure to tech and uh and btc is generally deemed to be more of a risk asset. Well, btc is kicking the nasdaq's butt, that's wild, absolutely wild, now going back to btc, because we do know that the qq is again still sitting well under the 200-day moving average. In fact, we just had a cross here by the way, a little bit of a death cross.

I'm just seeing this now look at that. Oh wow take a peek here. You got the death cross here between the 50-day moving average moving below the 100-day moving average death cross sign right here. Let's jump on over to btc btc did break our 42 000 support.

That's not ideal! Uh oops! I think i actually deleted the 42 000. Actually, accidentally before i made this video, but anyway we had a shelf over here at 42, which we rode over here in january. We rode it briefly here in mid february and uh, now we're in this no man's land, where, if we don't get back to 42, it is quite possible that we could get back into this 37 region, which i have to say, i'm very impressed that we did Not break well below i mean, with the exception of liquidation days, where we went down to 33k, we didn't break as low as we did in the last down cycle where we went in the summer down to about 28k. So, in my opinion, this is a higher low for btc, relatively a bullish thing for btc and especially since btc isn't moving as miserably as qqq.

I just have to say i'm impressed it's very, very good. Let's look at tesla on the one hour here we're gon na jump on over to tesla on the one hour. It's obviously down three percent today, but what i want to show on the one hour here for tesla is this: 880 line is really weakening. It is really weakening it is continuing to get tested and we continue to break below it.

This is not a good sign for tesla. We regularly hit, see look here. We are in december bouncing off of the 880 uh. We we've regularly bounced on numerous days here on january 26th, we bounce in the pre-market the aftermarket during the day we regularly bounce off this 880., but and sometimes we rubber band around it whatever, but this break off of the 880, not so bullish for tesla.

Yesterday we were dancing around that 880 and i actually bought a little bit of tesla slightly above the 880, because i thought that's all right. We've got a support line here, we're breaking that now. Obviously we're getting worse news here from ukraine and so on. So maybe that's why or people are getting more and more pissed off about the fed, but whatever it's pissing me off uh, but it's just the market that we're in now the spy.

Another thing that's nasty over here at the spy is, if we zoom out to the day, chart you're gon na get my fibonacci retracement. Now, let's zoom in onto the day chart this is the fib retrace here and one of the things that's uh, oh and yeah. There we go. One of the things that's nasty here is that we regularly regularly have been bouncing between the 38.2 and the 61 line you can see.

We continue to get rejected at the 61.8 fibonacci retracement and despite the fact that we rallied out of the end of january lows where we were essentially at the zero level, which is at about 4 20., we rallied right out of those to about 61.8 got rejected, Fell down under the 50, all the way down to 38.2 ran right back up to the 61.8 got rejected again went to go chill out at the 38.2. Visited 23 6 came back to 38.2 back to 23 6.. This is not good, especially since right now we just had a little wick down to potentially that 430 support level, which is not actually on the fib. It is just an intermediary support level that we have here and so there's a fear that if we break this 430 level again and this fibonacci breaks down that we're heading right back to 420, which is possible if there are escalations in uh in ukraine that we're Going to see that 420 get revisited again a firm on the day chart folks, there's no support, there's just no support, i hate to say there is no support for profitless companies right now.

Lemonade maybe has some support uh. You know around this, like 25 26 region. Right here, but come on folks, we've played this game before look at the channel that we drew between 44 and 39 and it got laughed off and we ended up moving down again until we get confirmation that we can actually bounce off some floors here. On these small caps or money losers, stay away, i hate to say it: palantir is no exception.

So far. Unfortunately, i hate to say it no exception. It's breaking all of the levels that we have and it's sad and those are red flags. You know technical levels.

Aren't impervious they're just a warning that when they get broken, you got ta move. The same thing is true about matterport, i hate to say it. It's a great company, but the profit-less companies are just getting smoke. Matterport is actually up about four and a half percent.

Today, but who cares when this is what your chart looks like? That's like cheering about robin hood being up, which it's not today, and this is the day chart that you're looking up for robinhood it's miserable. Do we maybe have a floor somewhere around twelve dollars? Maybe, but this is what you're betting on we tried a floor before we tried a floor at forty dollars and this was a pretty solid floor. Sorry profitless just is not what people care about in this market right now and it sucks anyway uh. One of the things that i do want to talk about is companies that are actually doing.

Well, though, right now - and this is kind of mind-blowing to me - is look at this - for example - dave and busters - not only getting off of that 30 as a floor, but actually riding high here, macy's a little off some of the highs that we've seen, but also Riding stable, carnival cruise lines also riding stable above their support. Now, kathy wood calls these value traps and i got something to say about kathy wood in just a moment and she might actually be right about these being value traps. But what i call these, because you know i looked at dave and busters - and just to give you some numbers here - they're trading for less than 20 times, 20 22 earnings, which is great, but they've only got 118 million dollars of cash on hand. They've got 271 million dollars of current liabilities, and they've got billions of dollars in deferred liabilities from like rent concessions and things.

I i i don't understand that they're heavily weighted under debt and the fact that they're doing so well in an environment where interest rates are expected to go up blows my mind. But what it tells me is that people might be investing in carnival, macy's and dave. Buster's and some of these recovery plays because they're hopeful they're looking at the consumer they're seeing the consumers spend more money than ever before, going out they're seeing bank of america credit card data telling us that people are spending money like crazy out uh and about at Travel and retail look at airbnb airbnb is another one. People are so enthusiastic about this economy and the spend, but this becomes a problem and a concern when people stop spending this money right.

This falls apart when people stop spending this money and it is something to be concerned about uh, so whatever right now, these are a little bit of a safe haven. Okay, what about kathy wood? What was i gon na say? Well, i was gon na say that kathy you know. There's there's this twitter account prepared remarks. They wrote that kathy wood owns 19 million shares of t-doc, okay t-doc.

That's that's one of her biggest holdings next to like tesla and roku, and that right so tdoc is one of kathy's biggest holdings and they looked at the daily volume here and they mentioned that kathy owns 19 million shares and the daily volume here is anywhere between Two and a half to four million shares per day, and they say that if she took 25 of the daily volume or like 800, 000 or so 700 000 shares a day and liquidated tdoc. It would take her an entire month to get out of the tdoc position because she has so many shares that would be devastating for tdoc. This is kind of an interesting point uh anyway, so some companies hitting all-time lows. We got roblox doordash hitting all-time lows.

We've got uh some stocks like pound here so far, hitting winter lows, summer of 2020, lows: redfin, roku, draftking, sunrun square winter, 2020, lows etsy, there's a lot of pain out there, there's just a lot of pain and it's unfortunate uh that that this pain continues. We have a little bit of a rebound happening here. Today is also options expiration day and so you're, seeing this increased volatility from options it uh. It is so much so that, like i mentioned earlier bloomberg's talking about how this is, this is like pretty much guaranteed going to be a down day for the spy uh s.

P. 500. You see this often on off options expiration day uh. Not always, though, not always sometimes you get to like the quad witching days and there's less of a correlation to there, but you're certainly going to see increased volatility and that's what we're seeing here today.

I think a big test here about how much fear this market has is going to be. How do we end up closing the day and, if you're watching this video later go, look, how did we close? Did the market rally into the close? Did we get above that 23 6 fibonacci, where spies above 434 and maybe rallying into the close above it, or did we fall to that 430 level as as, as people closing out positions with funds prior to the three-day weekend? I don't know, let me know what you think in the comments down below check out the programs, i'm building your wealth link down below right next to that link for masterworks and folks. If you want to join me in those everyday market, open, live streams, see what i'm thinking about first thing in the morning. Any program will get you into those linked down below.