So dave you're back on the show, much sooner than i originally anticipated uh, but i would say, based on popular demand, but based on my demand, i think that you made one of the most brilliant videos and i told you this offline about the tesla q4 earnings. More so the call that was following the earnings and what elon said and how you're seeing tesla's future. So, first of all welcome. How are you dave? Thank you, tom yeah, it's good being on your channel and i've appreciated having you on my channel just a week or two ago yeah.

How was the interview with justin yeah just know? It was great yeah yeah, it's been a pleasure, getting to know him and what he's doing as well, yeah yeah so justin also told me had a great time with you. So i i i was just speaking uh to another guy earlier and i described you as a tesla visionary. I think that's the best way to describe what you do. Do you think that's accurate, um yeah.

Actually, i don't know i kind of look at myself as just someone who who holds a good amount of tesla stock for a very long time. So, what's interesting is i don't really trade in and out of too many stocks, or i don't trade in and out of tesla much so almost like almost all of my tesla shares are from 2012 2013. um yeah. I picked up some more along the years, but yeah so and then almost all my net worth probably you know, over 80 95 of my net assets are in tesla stock and that's how it's been for a long time, and so it's not something i try to Do or it's not something like i'm thinking about tesla like to try to convince people at all, there's nothing really about that.

I don't really. You know care too much. You know if people are in the stock or not, but it's more like this personal thing, where i think about it a lot. It means a lot to me and um.

What means a lot also is just thinking about issues clearly about trends in the future, and so to me. Tesla is like a test case. It's like a metaphor, um of how you think about the world and investing all together, and so i look at it more. Like you know, it's a fun exercise to look at tesla to try to figure it out, because you could use a lot of the same principles for other stocks.

Other fields, you know the future 10 or 20 years. We're still going to be talking about. Probably what happened? You know with tesla 20 years 20 years back yeah. Do you get at all annoyed by the lack of recognition? The tesla is getting or maybe not getting, but by the government, or this is something you just kind of get amused by like.

I guess the question is yeah. If there's something that annoys you or this in the gordon johnson category, we're like just say or whatever like yeah to me, i'm not too annoyed, like. I think i've seen much like crazier stuff happening like in 2018. I remember going to cnn going to fox and he was going to drudge report going every single big media news outlet in a course of one week and they all had uh hit pieces against tesla and elon musk on the front page like it was just like Blasted, like everywhere, you went um, that's that's more of a big deal and that's where tesla was struggling and media was just trying to kill the company.

I don't know i don't think intentionally, but still it's just um. So when biden doesn't recognize tesla, it's like you know, i move on it's yeah it'll be fine. I made a video earlier today, yeah. Actually i saw it yeah.

I saw that um earlier yeah yeah. I think definitely he's doing he's doing harm for he's ruining gm and ford. By doing that, i said in my video: it's not healthy for them, but whatever yeah yeah yeah, it's not my problem, yeah! I don't again, as you saw in my videos, i don't feel triggered by this topic. Do you remember back when the us was attacking or invading iraq and then um saddam, and i think it was like his press like coordinator or something the night the day like as the us is coming and taking over the country? He's like everything is fine.

You know we're going to destroy these americans all this stuff. That kind of reminds me of the current uh auto industry right now. Everything is fine exactly well. They do have the hottest car in the market for sure it's literally on fire, which i don't know which one one of them.

Maybe i don't know i don't know i i mean good for them, but this video is not about them. I don't care about the legacy oems, it's it's kind of an anecdotal topic for me, but i do want to talk to you about something that i think is much more critical, much more important and i think, might be both an opportunity for people to understand where The world is headed, but also i'm more of an investor like you're, more of a kind of i look at you like at the joule verns of youtube. You see the future and you you you kind of try and and see, okay, where the world is going to be in 10 years. I think, like a can we make money of this.

I think we can. So i think, if people who listen to your vision, there's actual money-making opportunities for patient long long-term investors here beyond, i think i think you made a brilliant video. I don't want to talk too much so if you don't mind kind of sharing with my audience your theory about what elon said and how he said it in this call, especially i'm talking about the agi stuff and the artifact it's like. I would really love to to pick your brain on this, but i'll just give you the stage.

First, i don't want to ramble on yeah. Well, i'm curious like what stuck out for you. The most kind of you know when you told me i felt like you were speaking to me and of course you were not, but i was like. Oh yeah, i'm having a conversation every dave.

So when you said hey, this is both an insane money-making opportunity which definitely talks to me and also he's literally trying to save you idiots from yourself and because he knows that you're too s dumb to do it yourself and he's. Basically, just it's like the perfect storm that he he can make money with it, but he'll also save you from skynetting yourself into oblivion, which is exactly what you're about to do, and i found that fascinating that point. But i'm getting ahead of myself because a lot of people, i'm sure, are not familiar with the thesis but like just if you can walk me through in the audience, through kind of the progression of how you felt uh. The timeline is for tesla for the next.

Like five to ten years, yeah yeah, i mean yeah, so um yeah. This is actually a very complex topic, but i think it's um super fascinating. So it goes back to you know, probably like a good five. Six, seven years ago, when elon musk started to warn people about ai - and this is when he started to do interviews, he said you got to be careful about artificial general intelligence about you know this point where the artificial intelligence is going to outpace human intelligence and Then after it reaches that point, it could be like 10 times 100 times a million times a billion times a trillion times, smarter eventually, and then it's like yeah, you were in big trouble, possibly and so elon started talking about it and then he um usually does Something after he talks about it, so he started open ai with um, sam altman, from y combinator and a few others.

It was supposed to be like a non-profit that um kind of protects uh agi. So it's democratized, it's not abused, but what happened is there was kind of a? There was drama and disagreements open ai uh elon broke apart and sam altman decided to make it more for a for-profit company. Um and elon kind of you know did his own thing and he got more involved with autopilot and, as he started, getting more involved with autopilot, he kept on saying: hey, we're solving more and more of physical, real world ai right and every year. That goes by people are criticizing elon because they're saying you're, late, you're late, you're late.

You know the car doesn't drive itself complete, but then elon's saying wait a minute. You don't understand we're having to do so much more of ai than we realize and then um with ai day tesla. Basically, uh came out with this uh full stack kind of saying we're doing like the sensors, the hardware we're doing the neural nets, the training we're doing the computer, the the chips, we're doing the testing, the validation, the software deployment. We have the cards, we have everything, we have the whole package, no one in the world is doing what we're doing um with real world ai, and then they said you know our next big thing is or next thing we're working on.

Is this ai robot right and back then everyone kind of discounted it saying ha ha ha like it's the person dancing in a costume but um. I had done a bunch of interviews with this guy james dalma. I don't know if you've watched any of them but um. I did like 26 interviews with him and he's an ai expert on my channel and he predicted uh an ai robot over like about a year year and a half ago.

That tesla could possibly make this robot for maybe ten thousand dollars, or so um and um. So all last year i've been kind of tweeting about it, thinking about it like if tesla could make a robot and port over their ai expertise like this could be the next big thing, let's say 10 or 20 years down the road, and so when ai day Came out i was like oh my gosh. This is it like? I knew it was happening like, but i didn't think it was going to happen this soon. I thought it was going to be more than three or four or five years right, and so i was kind of shocked and then um, i kind of uh this past q4 earnings.

So this is just like a week and a half ago or two weeks ago, elon says this is going to be the most important product development in 2022, this ai robot and this just messed up everyone. The analysts are freaking out, saying, like tesla's lost focus, and you know the stock is plummeting, but i'm thinking wait a minute. This is not what i'm expecting i'm expecting this robot to be a priority. Three, four, five, six years from now.

Why is it moved up? So much and um i started to realize, like i think, elon is realizing that as they solve fsc, which he thinks they're getting really close, that the next big frontier is going to be not just ai on four wheels. But it's going to be ai in a robot and according to elon, he's saying like the robot can be basically eventually do anything. A human can do physically right and it could disrupt all of human labor eventually and the skeptics and bears will say. Oh, my gosh, that's never going to happen in my lifetime all this stuff, but what they're not catching is the fundamental problem of a robot is: is their brains um? Typically like a robot, you know people can make it generally.

You know have uh it moves and there's this thing called robocup uh and you can check it on youtube. But it's a soccer competition that colleges uh join where they have autonomous robots that try to play soccer. But it's humorous because the state-of-the-art robots like their brains are so just like the state of neural nets and robots is so weak right. Now.

It's so immature that these robots have a hard time, really kicking and doing much, but the idea is robocup. The the competition is saying, hey, we think in you know some time period, they're, not sure when that these robots are going to be able to beat a human, professional soccer team right, um, and so this is the trajectory of where robots are going and the key Thing is the brains like no one has figured out their brains and what tesla is doing is they're saying we think we figured it out how to make ai navigate move itself and not just in a car. But we think it's going to work in a robot, and so if tesla is able to make this happen, actually go ahead. Go ahead, it's just a video on my end, but it will sort itself out.

Okay, it happens. Sometimes, okay, all right! That's! Okay! I don't know by the way why this happens, because i don't want to get sued but yeah. I don't use my sony for the streams. This is what happens on my second camera.

I don't want to say which i don't want to get sued got it always this. It just goes out of sync yeah. It's a good thing. We got this connected for a second, because i want to pull up on the screen yeah.

What you were referring to. So it's easier for us to actually is this exactly that's robocup um, yeah, perfect, awesome! Awesome video here so check check out these robots. This is like state-of-the-art um autonomous robots, so these are not remote, controlled robots here, they're autonomously playing soccer right now, um and so people ask me like. Oh, how can tesla compete with the best robots in the world right now? But you know they look.

They talk about boston dynamics, boston dynamics is not an autonomous robot, it's basically programmed you know heuristically to do whatever. This is autonomous rope. This is the state of art, autonomous robots and tesla. I think can make something in like three months that can beat all of these guys.

You know it's um yeah they're way ahead in terms of their ai and that's that's the whole thing. If you stick real ai into these robots, they're gon na be able to like you know, run you know and actually be coordinated and do crazy stuff and so anyways. The whole idea is, if tesla really prioritizes this focuses. It develops it over time.

They could provide. You know a robot, that's very useful and actually people buy it and if they do that they can possibly corner the market, because no other company is working honest on this, like tesla is and if they corner the market that helps their development because they get all This data from all their robots - and it makes it harder for the next company to to get a market share position because they have to beat tesla. They have to be better in some way than tesla, which is going to be hard, and so, if tesla actually jumps out in a lead gets a big market share, they eventually could be. The winner takes all market, or winner takes most for ai robots.

If that happens, then elon protects so-called humanity from evil kind of ai robots, because elon can make sure that it's used in the right way. For example, you know he doesn't like it if it's like exactly like a human with their facial expressions. That's why it's like a black face right now right he wants it distinct. He doesn't want, like a terminator type of you know, boston dynamics, robot, that's why it's like it's a lean.

Looking, you know kind of harmless type of looking robot. He doesn't want it to to outrun a human right, that's why he he makes it where it's only going to be walking at a certain pace. Um, and so elon wants to try to safeguard this, where these ai robots are are used for good to help humans. So if he could wait dave sorry to interrupt you, but you remember the game: detroit become human.

No, no! No! No, no, never played that. There was a game, no i'm not a so. There was a game that came out where it was a futuristic game about these robots that were like agi robots and they look very humanoid, looking robots and there's no distinction like basically from uh from uh from human beings yeah. So the only thing, the only thing with distinction think them is like these little circles on the on the forehead, but other than that, like they look completely human and uh.

So that was kind of i don't know how i interrupted you go ahead. Sorry yeah! Sorry! I apologize no, no! No! No! No! That's that's important because, like this is that's basically the turing test right. So there's this, like you know, test in computers like. Can you tell the difference between a human versus a computer and you can apply it to audio? If you listen to something, is this a computer talking or a human or writing? Is this a computer? That's written this article or a human or visually, like you can say, hey? Is this video, a human or a computer, and this is getting more and more blurred, because computers are getting so good at being able being able to write and speak and do many things and that's why you have like, for example, these deep fakes coming out right? Like impersonating other people - and so you have this blur where people aren't sure like, is this real or not? Is this something just made up or not, and this is just showing how fast right ai computers are progressing, but i mean eventually the idea is yeah.

If elon could corner the market and make sure the ar robots are used for good, then he works with regulators to make sure that the right laws are passed so that it won't be used in the future for free for bad either. You know, and then, by doing so, it's like tesla has kind of safeguarded the future of humanity against possible like evil, ai robots right and it's. This combination of using technology innovation going to the market first using data advantages with all the data that they'll have with robots and cars and then, basically you know using, i think, regulation eventually, once they get there. But it's it's.

It's kind of the answer to elon's concern five, six, five, five or six years ago. You know that ai would get out of control, but this poses another interesting question which is: will tesla then solve agi and agi is basically artificial, general intelligence. Now this is when you know ai becomes smarter than a human, and then it starts to exponentially get smarter and smarter and smarter. Because there's like almost no limit right and the idea is it's both scary and potentially interesting, because once you solve for agi a few things happen.

One is you get this huge amount of economic value, because you can have unlimited amount of robots doing stuff for humans like they can make factories. They can go out, dig in the ground and do all the farming they could. Basically, you know create their own robots, but then on the flip side, you have a lot of dangers, because these robots can get out of control if they're thinking and doing everything on their own right, and so this is kind of the future um. But this is not the future in the next five or ten years per se.

You know this is going to be playing out a little bit further down the road um, but this is the future that elon and tesla are preparing for and that's what you got to do you've got to start early enough where you're, the groundbreaker. You know in these technologies getting the market lead, and so that's what q4 earnings was all about. You know, elon was saying: hey we're going for it. This is our priority and um yeah, and so that that was misunderstood by the markets, because you know they want to focus on the next year.

Next, you know two years max: they want profits and earnings, and all that stuff and they're scared that that you know elon and tesla will get sidetracked from making cars right and just be all in this um kind of like facebook. What facebook has gone through, where they're just talking metaverse metaverse metaverse but they're, not really showing the revenue or the profits yet right, and so investors hate that type of you know, kind of distraction or or that kind of talk yeah. You know dave. I want to er again this camera keeps acting up, but as long as you can hear me we're fine yeah yeah, so i think that you're touching on the point that uh i i can give you two like for myself.

I need something simpler, i'm not as i i have difficulties living in abstract concepts, so i try to simplify them for myself. So, for example, in that there's a that video game, i told you about called detroit become human. You can become human was the robots becoming more and more human there's a scene like all the robots are humanoid, but you can see a distinction in the way they walk the way they dress and they have like this insignia on the on their on their on Their on their forehead, whatever signifies that they're, not real humans and there's a scene there, where a house keeping robot is getting purchased in the store by this gentleman and he he buys the robot and he brings her home and and the robot witnesses that the father Is like a single dad and he's a he's abusive towards his daughter and, and you can see that she she's she's, trying to intervene. But she can't because she's not allowed to intervene, but eventually she breaks through her own programming and basically intervenes and grabs.

The daughter - and they both run away, they get hunted eventually they escape, and the plot was it's a seven-year-old game, so nobody should be. There's no spoilers, but the plot twist is that the daughter was an ai robot herself. She was not a real girl. It was this new model where they didn't have all of this completely human looking, but even the girl didn't know she was a robot and she she realizes she's, not real, and she has this crazy existential moment.

There's another plot running around alongside that, where a bunch of robots get free and nuke eventually go to war with humans and yuka whole city and then like so a lot of these philosophical questions have been raised. For i mean, like centuries right people talking about robots and ai there's. This also movie that came out a couple years ago called. I think mother or i am mother, something like that where this ai erase he erases humanity, because it believes that this is the best way for to ensure humanity survival by restarting everything so like crazy, like this, have been circling around.

But the only way this happens is that that's what you're saying right, if you let greedy corporations, control the narrative and control this industry, they're, eventually going to lead to some catastrophic results like a like a skynet right, so in terminator, like it's been around for, like Centuries and decades right, but like the assumption, is that a guy like elon, who has proven not to be financially motivated, i mean he doesn't he doesn't? He doesn't invest in tesla or spacex? If he's financially motivated, i mean he has so he's proven not to be financially motivated, he's probably the best the best guy to safeguard this right. That's what you're saying yeah like think about like facebook or google or whatever i don't want them to have that yeah. Yeah, like i mean so it's so much like you know the business culture is, you know, maximize shareholder value right. That's all it matters like as long as it's going to continue growing earnings right.

That's all that matters, and you know privacy, safety, security of of humanity. Right and this future is not really, you know in their mission statement and i think that's unique, like elon and tesla they're, one of the only companies that actually have something that benefits like is so critical to the future of humanity as part of their mission statement. Right and so if they had to choose between making more money - or you know doing something better for the earth or the world, they would choose doing something better for the world. You know and um yeah, and i think elon has shown that over and over, like um like by giving the patents away for free for tesla's, you know all their patents um, i think he's willing to you know open up the supercharger he wants to license.

Fsd he's not wanting to destroy all these other. You know automakers, you know with it like. He doesn't have that intention. You know um, but yeah.

I think um yeah. Definitely you need someone some company that is thinking on a higher level and who combines it with the actual execution to make the best product possible right, um, so yeah yeah, if they, if they can't, if they can't make the best one, they don't win, and this Whole thing doesn't happen. Yeah i mean, what's fascinating too is is who is in second place for artificial intelligence in the physical real world? And you know there really isn't like a real second place per se like you have a lot of people buying for the digital online world. Like you have open ai, you have google and facebook and some others um, but in terms of actual like physical world, navigating interacting with the physical world, it's like there's, not really any company on the level of tesla in terms of ambition, like think about it.

In 2017, they put a fsd computer in all of their cars, regardless of whether the person purchased fsd or not. It just came standard. This fsd computer - and this was like probably about a 3 000 investment that tesla put into every single car. You know, but if you think about the margin, that's like you know, that's a huge amount of margin hit per car and no oem would would sacrifice five to ten percent margins.

You know just to put in a computer that might help them in the future. Right. I won't put something: that's three hundred dollars: bro exactly yeah, i'm not even joking yeah yeah. They won't even put something at 30 dollars: extra they'll yeah, exactly every penny counts, yeah, yeah, every penny, and so elon made this big move.

Where he's like yeah three thousand bucks per car, because we we need the data - and this is the future and what other company has is doing that. You know three thousand dollar computer in over a million cars right um out there in the physical world, gathering the data and most people don't understand. What's really going on, they don't understand. This is a huge data collection fleet that's every day, even right now, today, you know the whole fleet is capturing.

All this data and feeding the engine to make it better and better - and there really is like no close second place to a tesla's doing in the physical world. It's kind of mind-boggling and you need that type of expertise and data. If you're going to make ai robots work, because it's about you know navigating the physical world so yeah, it's extremely bullish on tesla's chances, i think of making an ai robot. I don't know when the timeline is, i mean it still.

It could be quite a while, but the market potential is so big, meaning it's multi-decade. You know tens of trillions of possible dollars or more and um it's okay, it's okay! If tesla doesn't have it right away, because they've got electric vehicles that are just growing like crazy right now, they're in the beginning of this hyper growth stage, and then they got fsd. You know coming up in a few years and then you've got tesla energy coming up as well. If you've got massive like hyper growth stages, tesla's going through, they don't need the robot at all and the other thing is, it doesn't even cost that much.

I think to make the robot, because they're using most of everything from their fsd program, they're using the same chips, the same hardware, the same people, the same computers, the same neural nets. So it's not like facebook's metaverse thing, where they're spending, 10 billion or more. You know a year um losing money trying to make something happen. Tesla doesn't need to do that.

They just need to you know, do what they're doing and then just keep on. You know investing on the side with the ai robot as well, but yeah, it's um. It's fascinating, i don't know if there's a single company out there, that is involved with so many multi-trillion dollar. You know markets, and that has kind of like this first place - lead at least right now, with perhaps the biggest market of all which is kind of these ai robots, um yeah.

It's it's definitely a crazy story, and then you have people comparing tesla pe to forge pe, and then then i see this every once in a while on youtube. We're like okay, then so yeah. I think that if your scenario plays out which sounds to me like, if, if i don't see why can't at this point, it sounds very like the path. There is just wide open right now as long as they execute and as long as he stays committed to this idea if he follows through and he executes and everybody, so nobody has even started working anything close to that at least not anybody with the amount of Resources that he has, which is billions and billions, so by definition i mean it's not even about going to be about who's going to be the biggest company in the world.

Obviously they're going to be the biggest company that ever was. I mean it's not even going to be close. There's going to be this behemoth of a global corporation that controls like if you win agi, what does it mean as far as market cap yeah yeah, exactly yeah, yeah yeah? It's like, i don't like um to say that you know, like i'm positive, it's gon na happen, because who knows what will happen? You know yeah, and so it's all about probabilities and and all that but like back in, like you know, in the early days of tesla investing like i was chatting um, i was spending almost all day - writing uh forum posts on this forum, clip called tesla motors Club before they banned you, they just closed one of my threads but um. What happened was i remember back in 2014, or so i was spending like the whole year just every day, like five or six hours, like you know, typing these long posts and the number one debate and argument i was having with people was.

I was convinced that tesla was on the path to becoming the largest automaker in the world that they could take out uh toyota. Eventually, if the model 3 was going to be successful because then they could just take on the next kind of markets right, you were thinking about the model 3 back in the day, like you're talking like 2012 2013 yeah. Well, that's the thing: elon actually uh, elon! Actually was forecasted the model 3, he called it the gen 3 car - and he said it's going to be a 35 000 car, we're going to try to sell 500 000 by 2020., so he actually back in 2012 2013. He was actually telling people this and it was part of his 2012 ceo compensation plan.

Where you know he's like this is what i'm gon na do. We're gon na have 500 000. You know gen 3, 35 000 cars by 2020. You know made every year, and so people had a hard time believing that, but i was like, i think they could do that.

They just need to shrink the model, s make it cheaper and if they do that, i think they can be successful. Take on the bmw 3 series, but i think they actually have a very, very good chance of becoming the largest automaker because they just need to go to downstream, like cheaper cars, cheaper segments right and they could they could become the largest but believe it or not. Like probably 90 percent of people are arguing me day and night, saying impossible impossible. Tesla will never, you know, become the worst largest automaker zero percent chance officer, but these are tesla bulls.

These are people who have the stock. You know um, but it's just so outlandish that toyota could be overtaken right now. It seems more realistic, but back in 2013 or so it's like toyota was the king. It was like the god of cars, right, um and so yeah.

I mean fast forward to 2022.. I'm not saying that tesla is going to 100 for sure, take on ai robots and have you know this crazy? You know market cap, but i see actually very, very good chances. You know probabilities if they continue to go on this road and they continue to execute. They make actually a really good ai robot.

I think that's that's where it leads. You know they think about the model. 3. It's just gotten better and better.

Every year they keep on improving it, they keep on making it cheaper. It keeps on getting better. It does more things, i have a 2017 model three, but it drives itself. Almost you know it's like.

You have fsd beta right now, it's crazy! This is five years later, um. So yeah, that's that's! The kind of you know the the potential i think going forward. You remember when we had a conversation with justin and he was saying that, after he switched from a tesla to to a honda pilot, he he felt like the software loss was insane like the software loss is something that he he's still to this day like he Feels the pain there's nobody to come source them in software, and if we're talking about software advantages, that's pretty much it that's that's kind of the day zero of whatever it is, that's going to come out of it. So they're already like miles ahead of anybody else.

In that software and they're accumulating the most amount of data, and they have a ceo that calls the shots and is committed and they have the resources and they have the crazy fan base. That's going to facilitate that and be okay with it. Like this i mean what kind of company what kind of board would allow this to play out in any other company? Can you imagine like not even the car company, any company yeah we're building an agi? We bought look at the like, no board can pro like, and you need this almost dictatorship like elon has, you know, basically to just say: well we're doing it. I don't think anybody has the capacity to follow through with this insane plan and that's why i think he he might win and if he does, it's gg, everybody else they're pretty much screwed yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, so dave.

I want to ask you a question before we go. We have a few more minutes so as far as like you mentioned before that you you play down your your tesla a bit and how insanely wild this was. I don't know a lot of people who did what you did. I just want to remind people.

You went all in on tesla plus margin before anybody. I didn't even know about tesla in 2012. I think the first time i saw a tesla roadster was in germany in some expo. I think this was like 2013 or 14.

I was like what the hell is this and somebody go well. This is an electric car zero to 60 in four seconds. It looks awesome, but then i thought, like my understanding. Well, this is a gimmick right.

This is like i didn't even like. I had no idea what this thing was like at that point. You already like typing, like 4chan level, masterpieces about the model 3. Like so far so my question is to you right: it's like what would you say to all of these classic old-school analysts that are basically saying well, this company is overvalued.

This is a car company they're, not selling as much cars as a toyota or like what like, when you engage in arguments with these people, which i'm sure like you do less today, because you, you can't be bothered, but i'm sure sometimes you have the occasional argument. Like do you feel like when you start talking about these things, they basically say: well, this guy's, an idiot or or do you feel like? Have you ever converted anybody from like the oh look at the pe ratio to this kind of conversation or or is it like politics where you just can't win sure um yeah, like i, i kind of look at it kind of it's interesting, because i actually sympathize And empathize, with analysts and kind of more traditional investors, a lot like i've read so much like you know: buffett, stuff and value, investing and valuation type of approaches where i really, i could probably do like 100 videos on on on all these reasons, why you know Tesla could be overvalued and it's not a good investment. From that perspective you know, and the the problem is most of investing and the culture of investing is about preservation and certainty. Like you want predictable cash flows, you want, you know good 10 growth.

You don't want to shoot for the stars, because it's too risky you know and that's the culture of investing. You don't want to lose your money and every year you want it to be growing. A certain amount, indexed, you know compared to the index right. Everything is, is yeah, it's so calculated in some ways and i completely understand actually um a lot of the critique or you know cynicism regarding tesla or even the evaluation.

But i think if you look at it from a different perspective and um, i think you've got to look at it more from a technological like disruption perspective. Where do you think that electric cars are going to be disrupting ic cars, the whole industry, you know very rapidly in let's say in the next 10 years? Do you think evs are basically going to take over, and do you also think full self-driving autonomous driving is going to just take over or not see, most analysts? They don't think that they don't think that you know autonomous driving is really here until it gets here. They're, okay, with missing out, they just want the numbers to be more certain right. You you can't put in fsc in your spreadsheet.

If it's not here, you know, that's why it's like it's just zero right now for everything, and so i think the the the question i think for people is: do you have an advantage over analysts and other investors? Where do you see something about the adoption? Let's say of tesla or autonomous driving or even back in the iphone days right. Did you see something about apple, that other people didn't see right, the ios platform, etc? If you have that advantage, then yeah, it's it's! It's pretty! It's a different angle on the company because you could say: oh the growth i'm expecting is far greater than what other people are expecting. You know, because this is not just a slightly better product, but it's a revolutionary better product. So that's how i kind of look at it.

I go hey. I think this is fundamentally a crazy different type of product tesla is improving their efficiencies. The costs are going down massively the value they're. Creating is going up a lot, especially with autonomous driving like that.

Just increases the value of their product and their offerings they're already at around 30 gross margin. You know for their cars. Imagine what's going to happen if this continues right, so if they continue to give more value through autonomous driving, it's just going to go up. I think um so yeah if you calculate just like increased gross margins over the next few years.

All of that goes back down to the bottom line, to operating profit and net profits, and actually it's pretty um yeah, i'm calculating like, for example, operating profits to be like probably 30 billion dollars by the you know, let's say end of next year or soap, at An annual rate, and then it goes up to probably 45 billion in 2024 i mean the operating profits are going so fast because the company is so lean and um yeah. Their products are in such big demand and i would be concerned if tesla wasn't innovating fast enough, where they're not giving additional value to their cars. You know and then maybe the price has to come down. The margins have to come down as they increase volume, but if they are giving value and this autonomous driving kind of feature that they're working on actually plays out, then i don't think there's going to be a huge issue or a problem with with margins.

You know um and that's one of the reasons why i drive the the fsd beta almost like you know several times a week in my car to make sure like it's progressing on the right track and i've been actually pretty happy with it. I think they're they're improving it actually pretty fast. Were you surprised, when a lot of seasoned professional analysts when they saw the operating margin they up and didn't and didn't see the anomaly in there and and and cancel like in isolated with the with the with elon's options, like very few analysts caught on to this Yeah, i think actually some did but they're not making a big deal because it's kind of unclear um like yeah. That's the thing it's like, i think, a lot of analysts.

They don't want to project too much in the future because it could be wrong, so they wanted to be certain and these one-time expenses, for example. It was mostly elon's, like you know, payroll tax, right um, and then you had the stock-based compensation, like 240 million. That could be lower, but then you had these expedited costs right, um and supply chain issues, so yeah i mean they should have backed it out more. I agree.

I mean that was a big thing, but i'm not surprised. I think analysts just air on the side of caution, typically so yeah for me, dave they're, so efficient like what i love about tesla. I don't know how to predict the future like you do, i'm a numbers guy - and i look at this and i'm saying these guys are so efficient, so adjusted ebitda margin, right, yeah, so adjusted ebitda margin we're looking at a company going from 17 23 on ebitda. It's 23 23 cents on the dollar, with under a million units.

Economies of scale are everything here, it's exactly hard. The more you build the better your margins by definition, so a million cars is, is really not a lot. So a million cars pandemic years supply chain shortages, no chips, basically outages stoppages, you name it so in that year they went from 17 to 23 cents on the dollar on ebitda, i i find it insanely efficient and i'm saying well. This is just - and this is for me why so now you hear my bullish theory, so why am i still bored? So this is on the most razor thin margin business.

You can imagine, because this is talking about a business that has 30 gross margin, which is basically by the way 30 in hardware. It's insane! It's it's a lot so if but when, i think about fsd and i think about 85 gross margin or 80 82 gross margin, where it's exactly it's going to be within 80 and 85 gross margin and we're talking about 40 ebida, which is sas tech level margins. Plus in add this to tesla's ability to be insanely efficient, like they're, on the on the brink of of an insane jump into selling software and not selling vehicles. In fact, it is going to be so much more profitable selling the software and and licensing the software.

They might as well give the cars away for free in a few years. I don't think they will by the way, but i mean like this - it wouldn't be. It would be the if you take the pie, chart right of tesla's revenues in five years. The amount of hardware in it is going to be so minimal versus the amount of of of licensing software and and the stuff that are basically scalable up to wazoo, because there's no cost.

There's no capex, there's nothing! You it's like a course like a digital car things, you don't sell by the way, and neither do i but i mean that's why i'm bullish. I i don't see like i don't i. I hear your vision and i'm fascinated by it. I think it's going to be epic if it happens and i think it might, but i look at it like a simple man.

I look at the financials like efficient company. I don't know how the they do it and imagine when they sell five million units. What the margin is going to look like and they're selling fsd at 80 gross margin. I mean people are going to look back, so i tweeted a few days ago, or i made a video said: 900 bucks.

It's your last chance and people like tweeting back at me. Oh tesla, is under 900.. It's been two days i was talking like like in the in the long term. I mean i think this is pretty much the next jump for them, because i see like once, fsd becomes like not beta and publicly available and licensable, because i can't see mobilelite competing with them.

Sorry, mobile mobile has a nice product. I i don't see them competing with tesla's fsd yeah. I think it's going to be the next sleep that quantum leap that tesla does, which is going to surprise a lot of people. I think - and that's that's why i'm so bullish in the next couple years.

Yeah tom, can you go back to that slide that you just showed so check out the thing that sticks out also for me, it's like check out operating margin like a year ago, q4. 2020. It's like five percent right. Five point four triple the triple like think about this, like this doesn't happen very often that you go from five percent operating margin to 15, but then it wasn't really 15.

It was probably closer to 18. If you back out all the one time, i didn't check out the one that you got the stock by the payroll tax yeah yeah. So how do you go from 5 to 18 operating margin in one year? You know the covered year with shortages yeah like and the secret. The secret of their sauce, i think, is their lean operating expenses.

They're i mean this last quarter. It was a lot because the one-time expenses, but with if you pull out 600 million or so it's back to how it was you know before um, so yeah their operating expenses - just don't go up that much year over year and um. That's why their operating margin is going up so much it's um yeah, it's just it's just amazing they've they've got such a good business model, um yeah. What i also find funny dave is, i look at the revenues and the revenues when like right from q4.

2020, 9 billion to 16 billion automotive, yeah automotive from nine to 16 in a year, but regularly credits, regulator, credits, stay the same. This is the let's say yeah at the 300 level, and all you remember how, like a year ago, it was fashionable to talk about regulatory credits for tesla yeah all and nobody's saying that right now, it's like you, don't hear that argument anymore. Now it's all about like they found new fod, but i think that narrative is like stick a fork in it. It's done yeah! Well, the the biggest narrative in the past years was tesla loses money off of every car they sell, which is not the case.

You know i mean it's um yeah, definitely uh we're not gon na name names, but we know who we're talking about. Obviously, i don't want to offend anybody. This is like i would have. If you were not on the channel.

I would have done it myself. I've done it before. I don't want to drag you into this drama. I know this cheers yeah yeah.

I also found it funny how you put like a disclaimer on my interview on your channel like foul language, or something like this. I don't know like yeah yeah, like parental advisory, yeah yeah yeah. Actually some people have contacted me in the past saying that they watched my videos with their kids, so i have to like yeah feel a little careful. Sometimes i just can't.

I can't help myself. I feel like, if i don't do it yeah. I hear you. I have a pain in my stomach.

You know like i have to when i'm pastor, but but i i've toned down a lot in the past year. I really people don't know how it used to be like this is like i'm getting better. This eventually, like i say mother lover now and people seem to like it. Let's see what happens.

Hey dave! Thank you so much for coming on yeah. I think i've never heard, although i'm sure now people will copy you like you know, every good idea has a lot of others, but i've never heard anybody break out this agi theory before so i want to be sure that we know where it started where it's Originated this is really fascinating if you write, which there's very probable reason to think you are, i mean i don't even know how to value tesla this month. I don't know what the valuation is gon na be. This market cap is gon na look like a job, but let's see what happens, i mean there's only two certainties in life: we're all going to pay taxes, we're all going to die.

Everything else is available right, yeah, yeah, yeah, all right tom yeah, fun, fun chatting and um yeah yeah dave um. Thank you again. If you haven't yet, which i'm shocked, if you haven't dave's channel, is going to be in the description below go subscribe, but i'm sure if you're watching this you're subscribed, but you haven't been hey, mistake: go subscribe to dave's channel dave. Thank you so much you're you're you're a good support for coming on again.

I know you're very busy. Thank you. So much have a great weekend and uh i'll see you soon. Probably we'll call you in a couple of weeks when you say something insane again on your channel sounds good all right! Good luck, we'll see! I.