Hey everybody trader bryce here your host of the tui talk show uh today today's topic pretty pretty simple, but i think it's something a lot of traders not only need to hear but kind of want to know how to do, and it's navigating through a bear market For really the last 10 years, we've been blessed right with uh, well a bull market really i mean not necessarily a wild bull market up until 2020 and 2021, but because of that extension, we're now falling uh. The nasdaq is down close to if not more than 30 percent off its highs, um same with the spy over 20 off its highs, and it's again it's it's. What a bear market is, and that's the technical definition of a bear market is when we're down more than 20 percent off of off of that high and that's what we are right now. So it's the fact that matter and the the the bigger issue, i think, is that so few traders right have been around for more than a decade have been around since the dot-com bubble burst since the 2008 recession, a lot of traders, even the veterans, you know, Of today have been around since maybe 2013 right when the otc market started getting really hot again, there were a lot of opportunities there.

I know it's when there are a lot of opportunities. You get a lot of traders coming into the market, the ones that uh know how to practice risk management, capital preservation. They survive through the bear markets, and some of them actually thrive in bear markets. And that's what we have to learn from is one going through and back testing during bear markets, but more importantly, learning from the traders who have done it before and that's probably one of the greatest things right that i've learned from sykes, because sykes has been around For almost almost, if not more than 20 years, i guess he was around for the dot-com bubble burst like 99 or 2000, so he's been over 20 years now over two decades um, so he's gone through two bear markets before and he's still here, he's still kicking It he's still crushing it and i've kind of just gotten to see his mindset, because he's been kind of you know i say calling out, and i hate when traders call out, but he's been warning right on twitter were extremely overextended.

A lot of stimulus, money um with a an economy that isn't doing too well and those just lead to no, i'm not going to say a crash right, because a bear market isn't a crash. Let's not confuse. The two a crash is what we saw during covid when the market fell, what 40 or 50 percent in a matter of like a month right now we're months in and we're only only down 30, it's not a crash, it's a gradual bleed and that gradual bleed Is almost more devastating because it's as a traitor, it's more time for you to have less setups, less quality, setups more time to over trade, more time to mess up and more time to get emotionally distraught, which can ruin your trading um? And so that's kind of what i want to help with today and i'm not saying that i've been through a bunch of bear markets. But i can tell you i i'm going through this one and i'm doing really well during it.

I'm not not growing exponentially and that's something we're going to talk about too, is kind of expectations and setting those expectations with yourself, but really just learning how to navigate through it as a trader. So you can come out the other side not only alive as a trader but ready to crush the next market and i'm gon na i'm gon na plug small cap rockets. Slash steady trade team here because i do webinars uh for both of them throughout the week and that's what we talk about every single week right now as we're learning how to properly study during this time during a bear market, so that when a bull market comes Around we're prepared for it, so if you guys want to join we'll do small cap rockets down in the description below there will be a link to join for a trial. Just if you want to try it out see what we're about you'll get to see.

Some of my previous uh recent webinars kind of showing you how to study during this time - and it's what i did during like 2018 2019, where i wouldn't say we weren't in a bear market in terms of the overall market, but small caps were pretty slow during Those uh two years and during those two years i am showing the you know my my my fellow students, exactly what i did walking them through step by step and kind of giving them some homework to do on the side. And so, if that's something you're interested in to learn really in-depth how to study during this time hit that link down in the description below, but without further ado, let's uh, let's just kind of get to talking here so again bear market more than 20 off highs. That's you know what a bear market is defined as but there's really no definitive term um in terms of what's past that right when we get down like 40 50 60, it's just still a bear market and i think a lot of traders also confuse recession with Bear market they are two technically different things, and that's even more universally uh disagreed on is what a recession is, but from everyone. I talk to the most basic definition of recession.

Is the economy contracting two quarters in a row? I would argue we're probably already in a little bit of a recession right inflation is out the wazoo uh housing prices are unaffordable, gas is becoming unaffordable. Everything in our daily lives and we've talked about this on a bunch of other tui. Talk shows right: the housing prices, the gas prices, um inflation, all of that we've talked about all of it uh, and so it's it's even though we haven't really contracted the economy hasn't contracted for two quarters in a row. I'd argue are already kind of there, but technically by again the universally agreed upon term, which isn't that heavily agreed upon we're not technically in a recession yet, but we are in a bear market and what a bear market is going to do for small caps.

Generally is really slow it down, because people are leaving the markets. People are selling, there's a sell-off. People are selling their positions sitting on cash and generally, we kind of see a trickle effect right where, when the large cap market is really hot, when everything is going well, people might be selling a little bit of their position putting cash into high growth stocks, which We saw right with ark with upstart, with neo, with all these companies that are fundamentally not that valuable, but the hope, the looking forward into the future thinking. Well, this could be great rivian right all of them.

These growth stocks and small caps are the same way where they're, fundamentally crappy companies they suck they're, not good. They don't make money. In fact, a lot of them make money by selling into their shareholders by diluting the price of their stock, but their growth stocks. And that's where money starts to go during a bull market and as that bull market becomes more exponential.

Growth stocks exponentially grow and then, of course, during a bear market. Those growth stocks that are up on air for no reason other than hope and hype they crash, and that's why we see. Actually, i've been going through a lot of data uh the past few weeks and it's it's pretty crazy. A lot of stocks um on may 12th right the day of.

I think that that day, the market basically hit new lows. Most stocks in the last year hit their new lows like all-time lows on may uh may 12th, and it's crazy to me because the market is still up. You know from i say from zero: it's a lot closer to its highs than it is to zero. It's not anywhere near low as it's not in near coveted lows.

Yet all these stocks are at their all-time lows and that to me signifies that investors are scared right and it also could signify. Maybe there's a bottom coming in with stocks already being beaten down. So much um, maybe maybe we're getting close to finding a short-term bottom. And that's you know.

During a bear market, you get what's called bear market rallies, which is essentially just think of a downward channel because again during a crash you're, not even getting that you're, not getting a rally, you're just getting gap down after gap down. Think of a panic right, just panic, selling panic, selling panic selling, it finds a bottom, then panic buying really like chasing fomo buying, and then you just get people chasing it higher and eventually a crash is actually generally a short trap. We need to know the difference between the two of those to understand how to navigate through this, because during a crash, yeah you're going to feel pain for about a month. But then once it finds that bottom pardon me once it finds that bottom.

It generally rebounds. Very quickly very aggressively and has the potential to trap shorts, which can lead to further squeeze if that high breaks and now again during a bear market. With these rallies, we're getting drops pops, but lower highs, drops lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, and so it's during those few days of the bear market rallies that you get to kind of capitalize as a trader and that's the biggest mindset shift that i've seen a Lot of traders struggle with recently is: we went through two years, basically, where you could trade, five or ten or sometimes 20 takers a day, 20 trades a day that were all great they would all i mean 15 of them, 15 or 20 were gon na work. Right now, there's maybe 15 trades a month, and so the first big adjustment - this is number one right is dial back.

The trading navigating through a bear market means you need to dial back the amount of trades you take unless you're, you know short bias, but even then you're still not getting as many pops to short into a bull market is much better for both longs and shorts. Because, even during a bull market you're getting over extension with crashes, i mean it wasn't unrealistic. We'd see these three four or five hundred percent runners. That would then fall and then we'd just get another runner.

It wasn't like. We were getting a small cap that went from a dollar to five hundred dollars right we'd get these ones that went from a dollar to like forty dollars and then a massive crash where shorts could attack. So again you had the bulls and the bears being able to capitalize that in a bear market follow through is i'm not going to say non-existent. We have.

We do have some examples right where there is some follow through, but few and far between, and so that means that one is a long or a short you're going to have less opportunities. Now i would argue that you might almost be better off just blindly shorting right now than you would be blindly longing, because you do have a higher odds, higher probability of that stock. Continuing to fall, but follow through on the long side is not nearly as powerful. You get a stock; today there was neuro which looked great.

It was a nice gapper. It had that nice pop faded and it came back and reclaimed view op and just nothing happened out of it just continued to fade. After that, it was a great looking setup in a bull market, but in a bear market. There's not much follow through.

So that's where dialing back your number of trades uh really plays into you know, keeping you safe um and with that i think again. That is probably the most important thing you can do is dialing back the number of trades, because, let's say your win percentage drastically drops is a long right if you're, just taking less trades, you're automatically going to lose less money. That being said, number two is risk. Management is now more important than ever, and that really should be number one, but i think they kind of coincide with each other in a sense, because when you have proper risk management, you really there's not a whole lot to worry about.

If you know exactly how much you're going to lose every single time, that being said, if you are over trading, let's say you want to risk a hundred dollars a trade, and you have a, i don't know a ten thousand dollar account. Let's say you take ten losers in a row, your account's down, ten percent, and so, if you can limit the amount of trades you take while practicing proper risk management, maybe take 10 trades a month and you lost on every single one of them doubtful. That would happen, but at least then you didn't lose 10 trades in a day, you're, not getting emotionally tilted you're going in every day. Knowing that i am waiting for my setup and that's where taking less trades, uh really comes from.

It stems from knowing your setup off the back, your hand, kind of thing and that's gon na be number three is once you have risk management down once you are taking less trades like. I would almost for me even when my setups were there. I would actually just watch them work for a little while i mean i uh. Let's see when are we we're in may now? Basically, since february, i've really just dialed back.

There were like two weeks where i actually drained my account completely, so i could just watch the market, so i could watch how my setups would play out right that to me was extremely important and so you - and that was a good way for me - to know What my setups were and just look at the market and say: okay, there's nothing today, because i can't trade. I can't force a trade. My account was empty. I couldn't place a trade so when there was a trade i'd mark it down what it was and it was, it made me very level-headed and so really refining that and knowing exactly what it is i'd say the best way to do that again.

If, if you are struggling with over trading right now and your risk management, isn't there don't don't like be afraid to drain your account to zero for a little while right, let it sitting on your hands force yourself to do it sitting in your hands is the Best thing you can do so force yourself to sit on your hands by draining your account and you'll, be shocked at how much less um inclined you feel to take a trade every trader. I've talked to that does this has done this for a week or two at a time they almost it's almost freeing to them and that's what it was to me. So i'm not saying you have to do it, but if you are struggling with over trading, try that out and mark down the days that your setup happened and then at the end of the year period, where you're done. You know when you feel comfortable to put money back in your account, go back and look through what you wrote down and see: okay, how many times did my setup actually come about? What was it make sure your setup is well marked, have a notepad next to you.

What is your setup? What are the criteria that you need to see? Maybe it's something very simple right. Maybe it's a stock, that's gapped! Over 40 percent holds um 50 of its pre-market gains on a dip whatever it might be, write it down and if you don't know we're going to keep kind of going backwards here, right we're going to keep going backwards, going a little bit deeper. If you don't know what that is, go through your past trades journal, your journal is your best friend. I can promise you that go through and find exactly what made your best trades your best trades and go through and find what made your worst trades.

Your worst trades and see okay, what are the common factors here? Journaling is everything, and we do this a lot also in small cap rockets and steady trade team, where i go through and give real journaling examples we go through and do live journaling, because that to me was what made me a good trader was going through. I'd spend two or three hours a day, journaling now that was when i was trading more of course, so it's going to actually take less time, but a lot it's going to help you be a lot more effective, so find out what those are write down. That criteria drain your account if you're feel like you're over trading, but just by having that strict criteria there you're going to know what not to trade and then again risk management and then knowing what not to trade you're going to be trading less in a bear Market um and that's another thing i wanted to talk or another thing i wanted to touch on. Anyways is kind of the difference between expectation wise.

What a bull market versus a bear market means for you as a trader for me, and this again is my my uh the way i view it anyways, i view a bear market as an income generating market, i'm not going to build exponential wealth in a bear Market, unless it's a crash and i'm timing, the crash perfectly like michael bury - and he didn't even time it perfectly unless it is a massive crash and i'm short, everything i'm not planning on making a ton of money. I'm planning on making just enough because i'm only taking a couple trades a month now right, i'm taking the best of the best and i'm capitalizing on it. Today. I actually had my biggest trade in months today, short bgx x, actually i'll pull up a chart for fun.

Uh. Let's see we're right here, bgx x, let's go like a two day chart i adapted, and this is going to be another big part of it. I got short here in the 39s or at 39 added in the 35s and covered down here in the 15s to 13s, like it was just, it was adaptation at its finest. It's something i've been tr.

This is a strategy i mean this is really just the first red day right. This is the first red day on an overextended stock in a bear market like come on. It doesn't come on now. That being said, let's get to the adapting part again, and i do want to touch on the fact.

Let me let me back check a tiny bit here, adjusting expectations, knowing that these trades don't come around very often, knowing that i'm not going to be hitting these massive winners, understanding that has really helped me to say. Okay in this market, i'm not going to go on some crazy exponential p l curve, i'm going to just build little by little preserve my actual capital preserve my mental capital so that when the bear or the bull market comes back around when we start getting hot Stocks that are just running two three four hundred percent a day. Not only am i ready with an account to do that, to attack that would, but i'm mentally ready for it, and that's where going back and studying during bull markets is really important. So you can see what works during a bull market, but you need to be ready for it.

It could happen at any time. It probably won't happen for a little while, but maybe it happens tomorrow. Maybe everything all of a sudden starts gapping, 200 and running a thousand percent. I don't know, i just want to be ready for it, and so that's where that again we're just going to keep going back here because look forward to what i was talking about.

You know five ten minutes ago by trading less you are preserving your mental capital and your actual capital, and by doing that, you're going to feel much more mentally ready to attack anyways, though um adaptation right, another very important part of surviving through a bear market. During a bear market, things are naturally more bearish, so when we get these bear market rallies and we get some over extension, knowing that we're still currently making lower lows, lower highs and lower lows, i'm adapted by attacking short. That is that's the fact of the matter and i don't love it, i'm not as good at it. But it's what is working right now and as a trader, especially discretionary trader right.

If you have 20 years worth of back-tested data - and you can literally automate your strategy - and maybe it works during both market cycles, there are strategies that work during both market cycles, you're going to just get smaller, wins um. This doesn't apply to you. If you are discretionary, your job is to adapt. I hate to break it to you.

Your job is is to find what works when it works and stop doing that when it doesn't work anymore, and you know. Obviously a big part of trading is reacting like i just mentioned this adaptation of shorting into over extension during a bear market. At some point, we're going to make a higher low we're going to start, maybe not going back into a bull market, but we're going to start an uptrend, and at that point i'm going to know from a few losses that okay, this strategy is no longer as Effective now, let's see which one of my strategies is becoming effective again, and it's that's how i adapt personally. Normally that is reflected through my p l.

I track it very vigorously i like to see okay. How am i doing right now? How am i doing this week? How am i doing this month and if my it's very clear, if my strategy isn't working okay, the market's changing? What is working now and that's where just time and screen time and experience and going through previous market cycles is going to show you. The same patterns do work during certain market cycles and they stop working during others and so having strategies to really be ready for any type of market is important and again during a bear market going way back again, you're going to have less trades in general. There's going to be less over extension to short into there's, going to be less follow through along with, but that's why it's an income generating market i'm going in with the expectation knowing i'm not going to make.

I say income for me. It might not be income for you, it might be practice and learning so that you can actually build that exponential wealth. You can build that knowledge base and then for the next bear market. Then you're able to get to like an income generating spot where it's just enough to keep you in the game, um and so adjusting that expectation again.

This is one of my few trades this month and it did it made it doubled my month today um, but it's not exponential growth. It's not a four hundred thousand dollar month. It's not a. I mean my biggest month ever, i think, was a little over two hundred thousand dollars, i'm not getting that in this market, i'm not even getting close to that in this market and accept it.

I've done that by adapting, so i don't want to sound too redundant there, but adapting is a huge, huge, huge part. So the best way to do that is making sure you're journaling your trades, making sure you're tracking your stats - and there are plenty of tools out there to track your steps. There's profit, there's trader view, there's kinko or something like that: um there's trader sync: there are so so many find, whichever one you like the most, so you can track exactly how you want to or you can find exactly how you want to track your stats because You need to again just know, what's working and if you're not doing that, that is the first thing you should do and then go to the journaling and then go to knowing what your strategy is and then, once you know what your strategy is, then you're going To know okay, how can i trade less? How can i trade more if my strategy is there and again, i think the best way to do that if you haven't done it yet, this is like a little quick recap here: drain your account to zero. For a few weeks watch the market screen time is everything, especially in a bear market watching again previous market cycles watching current stocks and how they're moving you're going to see how little your setup likely presents itself.

Unless you have bear market only strategies where your plan is to exponentially grow during a bear market, i haven't found one yet so congrats if you have, and that really, though, and let's now, let's go over to some charts just so you can see. I know you all know what a bear market looks like right, like: let's just go to the spy down another. It fell four percent yesterday, it's down another, that's actually basically break even today, but from 480 we're now down to the 380s right, we're down 100. We're down like 25 ish um, give or take the qs, not q1.

Q's are down even more. They were at 410 and now we're at 280. um it's. This is a bear.

Mark and you'll see it's not this. Let's go to just so. You can see covet. So you can compare.

Kovid was a massive crash right from 230 down to 160, but very fast that was very aggressive and so was the bounce the you see there was no real rally. It was just straight drop here, we're having rallies right. We have drop rally drop. We had some consolidation, we had a few day rallies or a few days worth of rally here and right now we're just kind of in that mid-range spot, but again expecting i'm reacting based on.

What's happened in the past, you know during the past part of this bear market lower lows: lower lows lower low. Actually, this is a higher high fake out psych lower low um, and so that's what i'm going on. That's what i'm going on until that changes, i'm going to keep doing what i'm doing you're never going to be green 100 of the time use. What's happened in the past, react to what is happening now and kind of just have that full picture, and so right now again anticipation.

I guess because of what's happened in the past, i'm still bearish until we make that higher low that we see on this chart here. If we make a higher low and we start curling back around okay, i can expect some momentum, but again the trickle effect right. It's going to take some time because large caps first need to gain that volatility. They need to gain that upward traction before we really see a lot in small caps.

In my opinion, the only exception to this that i would say - and i'm going to end on this idea - uh, let's go back to the full screen - the one interesting part of trickle effect - and this is something to be watching out for for those of you. Otc traders a lot of times when money leaves large caps, they leave small caps, they people get bored and what better way to get bored than gambling on a point: zero: zero, zero, zero, zero one cent, stock or otcs right that are have potential to go crazy And it that's one of those things that you need the market to heat up. First, it takes one or two big runners to then start seeing a lot of others uh, following with it that momentum watch for the otc market during a bear market watch for these crazy sub penny. You know maybe two cent runners the.

If, once we get a little bit of momentum there, then it's like people just love to pile their money right into it. That would be that'd be. The one exception of the trickle effect is that once money eventually leaves everything money's been gone from the otc's for a while now we might start getting some trickle action back into the otc land. So that would be one thing i'd watch out for, and you know otc patterns are generally some of the easier ones.

You have the panic dip eyes. You have the multi-day breakouts, you know you have the first red day shorts. Those are your pretty basic patterns, so this is probably a great time to go through and study those otc patterns, because i wouldn't be surprised, we start seeing an otc rally in the next month or two, which would be great, i sure hope so anyways um, but Those are the ways personally that i am navigating through a bear market, and i hope this just gives you some. You know insight again, i'm not sitting here and talking why we're in a bear market.

I think most of you guys know that i'm not sitting here and telling you why we're in a recession in depth. I want to make sure you guys know how to stay safe during a bear market and really how to grow as a trader. How to stay around how to last? Because if you can last through this, when the next bull market comes, you will crush it. But now is the time to prepare when the market, when everyone else is getting scared and losing money, you should be preparing.

That's what i've been doing and i'm really excited for when we get that next bull market run again, if you guys want to learn how to study during a bear market and basically go through my study, tactics go through some live examples. Hit the link down in the description below to join small cap rockets as a trial. If you're in the comments, let me know what you've been thinking of the recent webinars. I think they've been really helpful, um and i'm they're helping me prepare really too they're.

It's not just helping you guys, helping myself as well, so let me know down in the comments below and let me know how you're doing during this bear market. Are you doing any of these things? Have you learned anything from this anything you want to try implementing that you might not have in the past and of course, don't forget to hit that thumbs up button. Don't forget to make sure you're subscribed well make sure you're subscribed if you're not don't forget to subscribe, and unfortunately i will not be here next week. So no two wee talk show next week, but i will see you guys back here on monday for small cap recap and with that being said, guys have a fantastic weekend.

I will see you next week. Stay safe, stay, smart and i hope you're all doing well. Have a good one guys! We hope you guys enjoyed that last video thanks so much for watching and being a part of the stocks trade community - we wouldn't be here without you guys be sure to hit that like button and subscribe to the channel. If you haven't already, our goal is to 100 000 subscribers by the end of the year, but we can't do it without your help.

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