What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, i appreciate you guys tuning in with me so happy thursday uh. Let's get rocking and rolling so yesterday, market squeezes to all hell cool awesome, no big deal we'd all rather see the market go up, but again probably won't continue to be that way for forever. So nonetheless, let's get into this discussion market sells down to negative three negative. Three are known, bouncing areas and reversal areas, very common for the markets to have good, bounces and reversals out of there so that day, market reverses it goes to negative.

Two negative two is the green, so we go to the negative two all right and we have resistance drop down following day drop down. Then we cross over break out and run okay, so that was where a breakout play was that was a reversal play and dip longs were off of really that level, and that was the only one that really tagged one of our levels, but nonetheless, the way you Think about this is the market's been selling down to negative three negative: three is a low risk, long zone people buy it up, ramp it up into the fomc and then the fomc announcement volatility squeezes it up, okay, cool! So now what i want to bring to you is a 10-day 30-minute chart open, hi-lo close, so no pre-market, no after hours, all right with a 10 moving average 50 moving average 200 moving air blah blah blah doesn't matter but anyways when using an open, high low, Close chart with a 10 and 50 sma, it gives a pretty simple easy to follow. Um understanding of trend change all right, and it's just based on these two moving average crosses. It won't always be perfect in the sense that when it crosses you have time to get in before the move happens, you always have some time to get in, but depending on when the cross happens, there may be more or less opportunity for a good entry, but In this case, uh there was a pretty solid entry.

So when we look at this chart here yesterday - and i will - i will mark a little green arrow when it crosses so we get across like right here, which means the price is probably somewhere in there. Okay, so those two green arrows is where we cross all right so yesterday, when you got this cross, you should have been saying to yourself: the market is trying to turn bullish right and not that you couldn't have gotten in on the long side before that cross Happened: that's not what we're saying, but if you're looking for a simple um, straightforward approach to when bullish and bearish moves are taking place in the market, you're not always going to be exactly first but there's still usually good room left on the table. But but that's pretty much it so 10 day, 30 minute chart open high low, close, no pre-market. No after hours use a 10 and a 50 moving average.

You could add a 200 if you want to, but the 10 and the 50 are what you work off. Of uh for the cross right, so you could do that and when that cross happens, usually markets are onto a bull move and when they cross on the bear side they're on to a bear move, so here would be the most recent bearish cross right or actually There was one right here too so bearish cross. You have one down day next day. You have a bounce day, but you kind of stay downwards to sideways, if you meant, but most of your pops get sold into.

Okay here was your one cross very short-lived. You would have been buying here, theoretically or you'd, be waiting for a pullback which you should always be waiting for a pullback if you're late to the move. If there is a cross right so then you can see we get a cross right here next day down. All right we get across right here and up so the more you play with it, the more you'll understand it uh and so on so forth right, but nonetheless, when we look at um what end up taking place yesterday is we got our cross in yesterday's cross.

Arguably, since it was the fomc uh gave you some time to get in before a big move already happened, so we're going to go ahead. Pull this screen back and we'll take a look at where the marker crossed so based on where these arrows are at. We just know that um, ideally we get across somewhere like right around here, probably right right in that area right and it's this pullback this one that allows you a really good entry, while still having those moving average cross. So when we got that across, you could start thinking dip long to optimistically long bias all right.

So that is just a simple way for you guys to uh. You know get a good idea or a good hold on when things are up trending in in a downtrending motion, and you know it's not that you can't visually see it's down trending, but knowing when that shift is happening, is important right. That's what everyone always kind of watch like, oh well, how did i know it was going to take off then or how did i know we were going to move from this point forward and generally on that 10 day, 30 minute chart when you get an open High low close cross on those smas, that's usually um a good indication that momentum is shifting opposite or changing, and so on so forth. All right, so you know in and that's the other thing too is.

If you look at where that cross happens. Um, you know here's another thing: if you look where the cross happens, the cross happens like right around here, which is same time, we're basically going through some previous resistance and statistical levels, so um. That was that right and i'm gon na bring over this chart here. So when you look at it from this view, this is a four hour chart, so i'm going to delete some of these drawings.

But when you look at the spy here on this four hour, chart you'll pretty much see that we've gone from down and squeezed right up and into these levels, so ideally you're at a little bit of a resistance right now. So unless the market actually holds these statistical probabilities right here, you're probably going to see a little bit of a pullback which completely okay but as a whole. You you don't want to look for this bullish, move that you're in to probably go any higher than 441.. So say we trend out for uh today, tomorrow, maybe next week, and we do continue higher right now.

You probably wouldn't try to go anything higher than 441 at 441. We probably would see some sort of selling pressure again um in in that's that's pretty much it. I guess um i could bring over this chart. Let me do that.

Let me let's talk about this one really quickly. So when we look at this chart, this will give you another good, uh view at it right. So this is the average. So this line that i'm going over, which you can't really see us, let me do red and i could increase the size if i wanted to yeah.

Let's do it so if i do this red line here, that line is the mean right. So this is the norm. This is the average right so though, the market had traded down here. These are extremes within this trend.

So this is the trend that red line. That's the true trend. Okay, i want to be clear about that and - and this is a yearly scale so so this is a yearly scale trend. But yearly is the most common time frame, viewed by analysts and banks and hedge funds, and it's the most common time frame that computerized algorithms, uh trade based off of and their calculations are based off of so you're, going to find a lot of significance and confluence And coincidences, when you do things based off of yearly scales and six months, so that red line and which is really the white line, so this white line is the true trend.

This is the mean this is the norm. This is the average okay and the purples and the blues. Those are the extremes, okay, so not that the market can't go lower, it's just for the time being. The market had met the downside extreme, but remember look at how look at how these these lines.

Look. You see how they kind of stair stepping down as long as the true trend, the mean or the average remains downward, which basically means as long as the price continues to trade downward, then the mean will be down and therefore all of the other lines will continue To stair step lower as the trend stays down so as the market bounces up to say the mean, say we bounce all the way towards the mean, and then we roll back down. Okay, as we're rolling down, these will stair step down, creating a lower extreme, which therefore would allow the market to break the previous low and go lower and then hit the extreme again and bounce in rally so based on a yearly scale. The market will provide short-term extremes on the downside, which we saw here here here here here right.

But if you look in the past, when the market sold to this extreme, which was the purple bounce and there's some other ones right, and so this one purple and blue and bounce right, we've gone into extremes the market's bounced. Then, when we look right, you will see that this low and this bounce takes place at these lows. Well, it's not necessarily because of these lows, but it's because that the blue lines or the predetermined, calculated statistical extremes are still right there. Okay, now, two months from now, three months from now, if we bounce - and then this rolls over again right and goes this way, these statistical probabilities, these blue lines will no longer be right here, they'll, probably be down here or down here.

Therefore, creating room below the lows to go down. So in my belief - and this is my belief really it's it's my belief - that the market did not bounce here, because it was previously supported here to me - the market bounced here, because the blue statistical over sold extreme levels are still presented there as they were presented When it was here and when it was here when it was here so to me, it's the statistical probabilities being presented at a specific price in the chart that creates a bounce and as long as those statistical probabilities are still within the same area. The next time. A stock goes down to the previous low.

Then it's still going to probably bounce it's when we come down to meet the previous low and the statistical probabilities are now lower that we break the low okay, that's how i kind of view the market there. So as it stands, markets are in a short-term uptrend because we have that cross, but i believe we are in a all on bare downtrending market, at least for the time being in a bigger scale and the bigger scale. Is this long-term chart right? So unless the market starts to get acceptance above the mean, then i expect we're in a downtrend right or until this or in still or until we do this, we start up trending these levels. You see how these levels haven't even started: stair stepping we're all downward stair stepping so until the market starts doing upward, stair steps or until the market's really back above 450, with acceptance to me we're in a downtrending market where we're going to see bear market rallies.

They get pushed back down so for now. What i was saying is your next upcoming resistance is most likely going to be right here. So this is a good area to expect market goes. You have resistance really anywhere from 440, 181 to 434, 32..

So yeah. That's that's pretty much it right, um and if you were to get through this zone, then you'd end up going up to 450. But for now you just pretty much expect we're in a downtown. We're gon na have short-term bear market rallies and for now, with this one that we're seeing, i would not look for it to go any higher than prices of 434 for the time being.

Okay, um and that's pretty much today's video, so you guys have a good one.