What's going on guys welcome back to the channel to simply put in this video? This whole thing you guys are going to see is going to teach you how to predict the market and bag some puts along the way, all right. That sounds really cocky. It's taken me lots of years to get to this point and i'm trying to help you i'm trying to help me as best the way. I know that i can so this video is going to be broken down into a couple sections we're going to be looking at today's live stream, where we give you the foresight, analysis on the market, okay and then we're going to go back and review what actually Happened to the charts and then we're going to look at some of the puts or some of the contracts i traded on the downside.

The strikes that i picked and why i picked that strike and by the time you get done with this video you're, going to see that it all comes full circle all right. So when i click play, it's going to be me showing you analysis on the spy. Basically telling you how i will look to trade, the beginning of the open on the market, all right, one. One of the plans i had this morning for the spy was pretty much just to watch it go back to there um, so that's kind of like the first plan i had was just watch the market long buy us back to.

Is it that price? I still think it's that price, but about like 464 was was one of my assumptions. We could see the market um retrace off this gap down as high as 465. now, if the market went all the way back up to 465. At that point i would really be watching the volume carefully, because you know if it wasn't a lot of buying volume once you got there, then i would imagine the market falls back into a short.

So um, that's one plan. You know if the market rips up, you know maybe trade up some long a little bit and once we get here, look for active selling volume to then go short. That's one plan um. So so that's kind of telling you how i anticipate the beginning of the spy to play out now we're going to fast forward to the qqqs and kind of go through a portion of the qqq analysis which, instead of talking to you on the long side showing You what to look for now we're going to show you what you look for when the market or if the market were to roll downwards all right.

So i think this starts at about 14, 22 somewhere here, so in this moment in time. I'm starting to do analysis on the qqq and basically telling you what to watch for today, all right and what i should watch for. So not only you but me as well all right! So, let's go to here so now we're on the q's yeah you uh! So on the downside you know so all things equal, everything's, perfect, mcdiddley, mcdoodle market goes down, takes out these lows market's freaking out omicron variant biden actually puts together one sentence. We can all understand we're going in the right direction.

That happens first target for me would be 394. all right. So remember. The first target down uh on the move would be 394..

Here's a stock chart of the qs. You can see. We actually went down to a low of 392.78, but where did we actually try to bounce 394? So remember from this morning's live stream. Remember this is pre-market, so the market hasn't even opened and we're telling you 394 is a target on the down.

So, let's go back, you know, so all things or or just in another way. 394 is these are probability zones. So if the market swings and it breaks and it's trending markets will probably try to go to those levels on the downside, okay, and if we were to do that and get to 394, then i would probably like that's a good profit on a short i'll start To cover a bit so we would probably create that of a bounce. If it doesn't bounce and selling pressure continues and you go down to the next one.

You look for a bounce, so just know that every one of these levels is also a potential reversal. Long reversal, long, reversal, long, etc, etc. Now, on the upside for the spy, the max long target, i would have the max lawn. So that gives you a pretty pretty good scoop on how we looked at the spy, how we looked at the nasdaq and kind of things we were anticipating for the market for the day.

So, let's get out of here now, let's take a look at uh, the spy really quickly, all right, so we go look at the spy. Our max long target for the day was that white line you will see we traded up just like we were talking about in the morning. Look to trade long up to max 465. In that area, look for selling pressure.

We were a dollar away. We didn't all go all the way to 465, we went to 464 and then the market started to fall apart and the selling pressure kicked in. So at that point we flip short. We go bearish and now at this point i was actually trading the queues down.

So before i go further, just know that we might still see this market slide out a little bit more. I'm not positive whether or not this is indefinitely the bottom for the day. If it's not, i would expect that the spy will try to swing down closer to 455 to 453. Now, when we go look at the qqq really quickly, sorry, i know that's loud so now when we go look at the qqq's really quickly.

Just know that all of these white lines on the downsides are the long term price targets. This 394 level, i believe, is actually excuse me. It's actually the qqq's long-term weekly level. It is so right now you're sitting at the qqq's long-term weekly level.

We already tried to hold this level the other day right like right around. I think it was there at the time, so we've already tried to hold this before, regardless, i'm probably confusing you so nonetheless, just expect this. If this market fails, you'll see the queues slide down lower to 391 to 390 by the end of the day, and that will probably result in the spy being somewhere down towards 455 to 452. Now, let's bring over this, so these were the puts that i traded on the market.

You will see today i treated the qqq's 394 put. I also did some longs earlier in the day, so net profit on that trade was 7 000, whatever um. At one point, the puts were up a total of 208 percent, so why did i for one pick, the early expiring? Why did i pick the closex expiring option chain, and why did i pick 394? Well, just as anybody would the reason i picked, the earliest expiring options was well for one. I figured that we could go to 394 on the qqq's today.

So, even though the expire tomorrow, i anticipated the stretch of the market would hit 394 today all right and if we could hit 394, obviously those puts would go to in the money and it would be a great trade. So today i picked the 394 puts went up as high as 200 percent on them. The reason i picked the 394 puts is based on our analysis. The market had suggested 394 is a probabilistic downside target for the day in the event we swing down now, did i know that jay powell, the boy was going to say that inflation is not transitory.

Well yeah. We all knew that inflation wasn't transitory. So that's news. It's also driving down the market, this covid, who knows what i can't even remember - it's already i've already forgotten about it, so whatever that was, i already forgot about that.

So that's helping the market go down. So, there's all these reasons as to why the market's going down, but one thing remained the same regardless of the news and regardless of what came out today, the downside probabilistic target was always 394., so whether it was ronald mcdonald died today, donald trump will be. The president, next week, joe biden had a heart attack or whether or not inflation is here to stay 394 was always the downside target. So whatever negative news, the market decided to throw your way and use as the catalyst to drive the market down.

394 was always where we wanted to go in the first place, so i don't care whether it's inflation's, not transitory, you're, an idiot. If you thought it was right, so so use this as a learning example. For the longest time your government and the fed has been telling you: inflation is transitory. Inflation is transitory, and now they're telling you it's not.

That is how it will go. 99 of the time, wasn't it just two weeks to flatten the curve right? Then it was well. How dangerous is it now? It's full vaccination rate. Now he needs 36 booster shots, what they the vase the suits.

Whoever is in charge whatever they tell you, it's the opposite, typically, all right. So enough of that you're, smart you're, not dumb, you always knew inflation wasn't transitory. You knew when biden told you that this whole infrastructure thing that's going on will not raise inflation. You knew that was a lie because you're not dumb okay, read between the lines, so that is pretty much today's video, if you're, newer and you're seeing this video, which you probably won't because youtube loves me, go back and watch all of our old videos.

Streams standard deviation, you do that and you will learn how to do this every single day, i'm getting a little better myself. I can't really say i'm the world's best, but if i keep predicting the market like this every single day, it won't be long. Alright guys have a good one.