What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, i appreciate you guys tuning in with me this morning, so yesterday uh we had talked about the spy in the nasdaq and our recommendation was more or less to probably continue watching the markets. Bearish. We talked about the market entering a downtrend right here and then we talked about watching the markets bearish to this point and or to this point, because that is a mother candle and a ghost wick and many times the market same day. Couple days after we'll always come back down to retest those really long wicks that are generated during the after hours or pre-market session so fast forward into the day.

You'll see the market runs bearish straight into um. You know these wick areas right and then we end up breaking and then we just tank for the day. So what i want to now do is bring up this tweet from twitter, not that you have to follow me on twitter. But if you choose to that's, that's cool, so at 1004 am yesterday.

I mentioned that on the qs. It is probable. You'll see 318 to 317.. So again, just a quick little tweet, qqq 318 317 is probable.

Okay, i didn't say it's a guarantee, but it's probable. All right now, the reason that it was probable is because you will see right here is 1004.. Let me find uh. Let me use like a little arrow, so 1004 would be right about here.

Okay, so putting a green arrow there. So that's about 1004 am all right and at the time 1004 i do a little tweet saying. 3. 18 3 is probable.

So where is 318 317 318 317 is right here: okay, right there, all right and you'll see right about the end of the day. We reach those prices now. Why is it that i started mentioning the price targets of 318 317 earlier pre-market when the video is posted? We said watch bear to here, okay and then at 1004, which is here, we say, watch for 318, 3, 17. As being a probable move, and then we go there so putting that all into a flow, it would be.

These are mother candles, ghost wicks happen, pre-market after hours many times same day, we're going to go and touch them. You will see that these ghostwick levels line up with our first big probability statistic level down, which is these green lines? Okay, once we break those and we have bearish movement, we open up the door to go down to the next big green probability levels. Hence why? I said it's probable: these are probability levels, so it's probable that the market once we broke here, could very well fall to here. Alright.

So yesterday, 10 o'clock 1004 markets break these green lines. Once you break these, these are no longer a support. This one would be the next support, theoretically, okay, so again putting into the full scope of things. Once you took out these green levels, you could be optimistic that unless the market gets back over and reclaims, these, then you're still going to trend lower with your next big level, down being 318 317..

So that is why we talked about the markets being bearish and going where they could go uh, et cetera, etc, etc. All right so moving into today. What's going on all right, so let's talk about it. So yesterday, end of day we go down to these green levels and then we break them.

You can see, we bounce back to them and we pull off them. So this would be an after hours move trying to maintain the bearish move below these levels. You'll see we break over hold the pullback over hold the pullback. Do this weird little dip pre-market hold it and over? So we already know that this is the main price point or closest price zone, statistical probability, level that needs to hold, or else you will continue going down all right and, as we explained here once you break this level, your next high probability level down was actually This gray line, and then after that it was actually this gray line, and then it was these green lines, but to make it more simple, i was only explaining the big green ones previously.

So where is the next probability level down in the event? And this is the nasdaq, so, in the event the nasdaq takes out these green levels today, what's the next high probability level down, it would be right here, which is the previous low, and the reason the previous low is right here is because the probability levels are Here so reverse a little bit, these levels break out where's the next probability level down here market find support there bounces. Where does it go to retest the probability level that it had recently broke down all right, also by the way, remember how we talked about the ghostwicks right here, see how these ghostwicks kind of tagged down to this green level. In that probability level, and then you fast forward over here and after hours, you see these ghostwicks go up to that level. That level in that level, when it's trading all the way down here and then you see where the market moves directly those probability levels.

So, whenever you get these really crazy long, wicks that happen after hours pre-market make sure you pay attention to them, because generally that's where the markets are going to try to move in a short time frame, not always but most cases so going into today, it's pretty Straightforward this is your first probability zone that has to hold as support, or else the market would probably continue going downwards: okay, um, so in terms of price targets for the day, what are we looking at? Let me go to the long term chart here, uh and before we actually uh talk about intraday stuff. Let me kind of give the full scope of things, so i am projecting or had been projecting that we're going to see the market fall into this zone. All right, it's not a guarantee, but to me i think it's it's probable that we will see the s p, 500, down towards 406, 404 and anywhere to 380 and 390., and on the nasdaq we are going to see prices of 295 296 area down to uh 273 and the reason i say that is because the last time the market had bottomed, it was here well that was a bottom that popped here here and here now. The reason that the market had bottomed here here and here is because it was trading in a very oversold location which was onto this blue line and this purple line.

Okay, so you may be thinking well, why don't we bounce it this time again, because the market already tried it? We tried it here here here and here the market's already bounced this up now we're coming back down to it. To me, it's more likely that we actually would break it this time, and that comes down to what i call a first attempt move when the markets first attempt breaking something: there's, usually a bounce or when there's a first attempt to really break something. There's typically a bounce, but the following time you come down to it, it's more likely. You break it.

So that being said, i'm still bearish the market. For now, i'm not bullish for the time being, all right so now we're going to dive into the intraday charts. Again, all right, so now, when you look at the spy, where did we recently bounce we were coming down and then we had that one day bounce where this day we mentioned watching to 426 ends up hitting 429. following day we say: watch the market down to 424, 425 and then the nasdaq down to 3, 18 317 after the day starts.

So then we do that overnight. We bounce back up to the green lines so again down to the green bounce down to the green. Second attempt break bounce back to the green retest of the break down now back this way right, and so the current support, that's keeping this market from falling this direction again. This was a re-test of the previous support from the following day.

This is a breakdown of that support. This now becomes a resistance. We bounce back pre-market. We retest the resistance.

We fall off of it. Now we're hesitating right here. Why? Because a you, have these probability levels there and b. When you look to the nasdaq, you have these probability levels here so this morning it's the spy, statistical probability levels that create the top pre-market resistance, which echoes into the nasdaq top pre-market.

Then we zoom in a little bit. Okay and it's now currently the statistical levels here on the spy that are stopping the market and the statistical levels here on the nasdaq that are preventing the market from continuing further off that pre-market top. So we know today that when the market opens well, these levels are going to adjust, but for now this is your probability zone that you're pretty much watching for a break below or hold on. Okay.

Now, if the market does hold this and somehow pushes this direction, the nasdaq pushes upwards. Your first target long would be that green line on the spy, which is 420, which is probably going to update a little bit at the open all right. So pretty much you're, not you can't! You can't really be swing long unless you were maintaining back above these green lines. So you can't even think that your swing long unless the market goes back above this zone, okay.

Otherwise it's just a short term long into here. Still looking for selling pressure, so as it stands, we might open with a slight bounce, but ultimately i would still be watching for maybe breaks below this 318 317 price. For the time being. Okay, we've been on a really really big sell-off over the past.

Call it a week or so um, but i just don't quite think this is going to turn into a gigantic rally back up like that. I think everything is going to be a short-lived counter trend, long that still tries to get sold into. So with that being said, there's just a couple more things i want to touch on which are in the event. The market continues to slide out really bad.

All right so say we take out these levels here on the nasdaq, then we're just going to be looking down to all the probability levels. So this first probability level is like right around 414, then the next one would be 412 right and then, after that, we'd be into 406 404s when you get into the 406 404s. If, when you would look for an intraday bounce in those prices, because there's a good chance that the market's going to bounce that level, at least on the day, so these statistical levels, the negative three y's right here - that's going to be a low risk. Long section, in the event you you fell there today, you would definitely be getting long and if we look over at the nasdaq same thing, markets break here.

First level, you look to would be the previous low, which is here and then after that, you'd look down to 307 um and and that's pretty much. It so hope you guys enjoy your day have a great day and i'll see you guys on the next video. So everybody take care.