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What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, i've already tried to record this video like five times. It seems the more i make youtube videos, the more complex they get and the harder it becomes to make them, but that's okay. So i hope you guys stick around for this video, what we have right here on the screen. This is a live recording of friday's trading session.
I recorded options, market data and the stock market in real time pretty much. The reason i did this is so that you can see how options market data and real-time trading go hand in hand. More specifically, you see all these lines i have on my chart with my cursor. You see these orange ones and you see these gray ones, and you see like this dotted white line there, and then you see this solid orange white line there for those of you that are not new to the channel.
You know what those are for. Those of you that are new to the channel, you don't know what those are and those are probability levels. So these levels and lines you see on my chart to me on a day-to-day basis are levels and prices that the market should trade at and should trade from and to or touch so that that way, when i look at the stock or i'm looking at the Stock market, i have all these price points on my chart that are just expectations of what should probably happen from there. A lot of times options.
Market data can give you the go ahead as to what direction the market wants to go or when the market might respect one of these levels as resistance, and you will see that perfectly in this video now before we get started into watching a little bit of This recording and teaching you alongside of this recording, i want to give you some context as to why the charts are the way they are and then before. We click play on this video we're also going to go and look at a real-time stock chart of both the s p, 500 and the qqq on the four-hour time frame, so that you can see how the stock chart looks now as in comparison to what it Looked like on friday, because there are slight differences and that's what i'm going to teach you about. My trading system is that it does change slightly from day to day and that's why it's so important that you're analyzing market data in real time. So that's why i had to record this session in real time, because if i tried to teach you any of the stuff you're about to see in this recording, it would make almost 85 cents if i taught it on saturday so again, very.
Very cool video thanks for staying this far. I'm sorry if i feel like i'm rambling, but there's just so much that i had to talk about so the reason that i recorded this video with five minute charts and 180 day charts here is because one i use 180 day charts religiously and in order to Get the points across in this video it needed to be that i recorded 180 day four hour charts now i did not have to record one day five minute charts for you, but i know a lot of people like five minute charts and at the end of The day i wanted to have some sort of intraday perspective and view of you know how the market traded as opposed to just one big candle now i'll, say the quality on this recording of the five minute chart isn't really that great again, this is my first Go around i had to try to scrunch all these charts and all this data in and record it. So again that was kind of my first go around. I hope you get better these so apologize if it kind of strenuous on the eyes for some. So with that being said, that's why i recorded those charts away. I did before we get into the video i'm going to pull up a stock chart now um, okay, so this is the spy 180 day four hour chart. This is the same time frame that you were looking at on that like um, you know thumbnail of the recorded video. The only difference is you can see back a little further.
I was zoomed in so that we could really focus in on the current trading day. So what i want you to focus on here, though, is you see this price of 464 31? That is referencing that dotted white line there? Let's go back to the video in the video. You will see that that dotted white line is 464 19, but currently right now that dotted white line is 464 25.. So this one did not change all that much not a big change there, but you can see there's a few sense difference.
So that's a good example to tell you that these levels do change, but depending on the volatility of the market, they can change more so as opposed to less so i don't know but anyways. Let's go take a look at the qqq level now because this is also uh very important, so when we go and look at qqq, what we're looking for is this orange line. The reason we're looking for the orange line, i'll tell you right now is because this orange line was the desired price target of the market on friday. Obviously, hindsight 2020, it makes sense right.
We went to the yellow line orange line and the market stopped there. So when the market closes, we could obviously go. Oh well. Clearly.
You know that 380 dollar price point was the target right. So it's it's kind of a no-brainer to say: oh well, the 380 was in fact you know the price target for that day after it's already happened, but now let's go back and actually look at the video and see what was the price of that orange line. So the price of the orange line to start the day was three: eighty, eighteen, okay, three, eighty eighteen, so you could have already been saying to yourself on friday that the queues were going to trade to 380 18 and maybe try to find some resistance around that Price point: now you could be saying well connor. Why didn't you do that yourself? I did do that myself.
This was january 14th, 7, 30 in the morning. So this was you know few hours before the market opens either way. Market qqq long target up to date is maybe the retest of the 380 to 380 22. Then i assume the market would try and sell off this level. So at 7 30 i am able to build a prediction based on a strategy i already have this. Video is all about me trying to kind of mold your brain, maybe to the same way. I see things, and maybe it will help you. Maybe it won't all right.
This is all the purpose of this educational video. So, at 7, 30 on friday, i was planning on trying to go long to 380 and sell off this level. Now, let's take a look at what the video did all right. We can see the market trades where to a price of 380 20..
You see that that yellow line that's about 380 20 and then it sells off this level. Alright. So now what i want to show you is the video, so you can see this in real time. I'm gon na speed up this video to start just so that that way, you can see it really quickly.
So you don't have to wait through me explaining a bunch of stuff before you get to the meat and potatoes ready. I'm gon na drag this well. Let's just hit play so you know it's like legit right. This is friday's trading session.
So what you're? Looking at right, all these lines and everything on my chart. This is exactly how the market was structured on friday. I'm now going to fast forward. You will see on the bottom screen.
Look at the four hour charts down here. Okay, you will see the candle goes straight up to 380 18. ready market opens boom up up up up up 388 boom right there. Okay, stop go back, okay, so look at the very bottom right, qqq chart! Okay, you see how the market, oh almost, let me go back right, no there.
So you see how the market tags it basically to the penny. Okay and then you see how the market sells off shortly after it tags that level, and then you see, i throw a couple red lines on that chart, so those red lines were probably probably me: mapping off, like some levels around candles, right that i said: okay Markets are kind of catching some bids and whatever around these areas - and this is where, like you know - maybe pattern - traders are gon na come in or whatnot, so it doesn't matter anyways. You can see, we hit the 380 18 and we sell down all right. The problem that with this video, is that the five-minute charts are kind of blurry, and i don't have them zoomed in that much i'll, try to make that better in a future video, but the concept is right.
The market only has so many probabilistic outcomes that can kind of happen right. The stock chart can only go so far up. It can only go so far down so eventually you're going to run into something that generally has resistance or has support in these trend lines that you see on my chart. That's what that is at least for me.
These trend lines that i'm looking at that you see the market went up to at 380, 18 and then sold off. These are all levels in which i am confident or i believe the market should trade to can find resistance at could bounce at. In the event, this was like a bounce trade um. So that's what they are for me right and the purpose of this video is to show you that in real time, and so that you can decide whether or not this is something that you would like to move forward in learning for yourself all right. So now that you see the market had chose the probability of trading up to 3 80 18, and then it found resistance there. The question then becomes well: how far does that? Pull back? Go all right so now that we've already done the candle on the bottom right going to the orange level. Let's take a step back all right now. I want you to look at the five-minute charts on the upper right and the uh the upper left right.
So now you're going to look at the the minuscule time frame, so we looked at the bottom ones. Now look at the top one, so the top one's going up. So i want you to pay attention to the dotted, yellow line on the upper right. That's the 3804: that's basically the same level as that 380 18 give or take, but pretty much the same.
And then i want you to look at the spy chart on the left. You see all of the the gray levels that it's breaking through right now. Those are statistical levels that we would use as support. So when you look at the cues and the spy on the four-hour chart, you see that the bottom um of the day's session there's really like no trend lines or support.
If you look left, you could say: oh we're bouncing off the previous low sure. But if you actually look at the stock chart, there's no like trend lines here. But if you look up there's a trend line for resistance, so we have a resistance trend, but no support trend based on this time frame. All right, i want to go too in depth, just know that the qs did actually have support there at 372.
36 right on this five minute time frame, i'm actually plotting long term, monthlies and long-term weeklies, which obviously you won't see on this time frame, since this is a six month four hour. This is a one day, five minute, but i've programmed monthlies and weekly so that it can show on this time. It doesn't matter anyway, so just know that these are monthlies and weeklies same with the spy, monthlies and weeklies down here. So, if you're, looking at the four hour, chart you're only given resistance, but if you're looking at this time frame and you'll see that there are actually support levels.
More importantly, you will see that the volatility of the market picks up on the upside when the spy actually clears through about 460 215.. Let's go back so the way that you would actually look at this day is market opens. Look at the chart on the upper left market opens chart on the upper left mark it open all right, so we are on the monthly that really big gray one. I'm sorry for the quality i'll try to do better next time recording.
But you see that really big gray one around like just over 460 spy upper left chart that one and then it's moving into the dotted grays dashed grays, that's the break up. Okay, so mark it open, tries to go down. Hold support start to curl up breaking through monthly slash weekly deviation, statistical trends, boom volatility picks up now. It's targeting follow my cursor 464 to 380, because this is starting to break out. So if we successfully break out, we say: where are we going to go? Well? The only probabilistic outcome that conor can see - and you can see based on this video - is 380 18 on the qs and 464 19. If this is a successful breakup fast forward, where do we go? Okay, we go to the spy target. We just hit the q target okay, so we hit both targets on the long terms that we're saying down here, but also in the smaller time frame. You see this line, so we've gotten to those targets all right so now we're about to pull back all right.
So this is where you say to yourself: where's the pullback gon na go to remember anytime something breaks out. It always wants to retest its breakout, like 85 percent of the time, so we would say to ourselves in the event that this resistance - we have mapped off in the three eighties for the qs or whatever here on the spy. If it's true resistance and it pulls back, we could look no further on the pullback down to that bottom gray, line that it broke out right. So if i were to short this top, which i did do on friday, i actually took a short position on the qs like right here.
Basically i'll talk to you know about that one, a second but anyways. So when you go short this top or when you start to sell down this move you really in terms of a day trade. So like an intra swing, move intraday swing, move down! You won't look for the market to go any further than pretty much where we broke up, which is that 460 for right now or like 461., so watch it pull back and when it pulls back it pretty much just targets right back down to where it broke Out, which is those dashed white lines, so you will see this market sells off right down. Let me just fast forward: get it there right there boom, you see how that candle goes, and i know the quality is bad.
That's i'm sorry about that, but ready upper left. Look at the upper left chart see how that candle is kind of breaking going down going down and then wait till it gets that first dashed white line. You will instantly see the candle get bought. Okay right there see it getting bought up, so those are buyers or short sellers covering as they have met their first down target off the top of that pullback.
Also, probably meeting some dip buyers trying to create a higher low setup off that support to maybe convince the market of a daily uptrend. At this point, so you see how the candle is kind of going green either way we sell down further all right. So i'm going to fast forward more look where we sell down to eventually see that trend line. I just drew i kind of went over the price on accident, but you will see we pretty much. I only record like the first two hours, but you can see. Look we get down to like the bottom dashed line there and then what happens? We curl spy pop okay, so those are short sellers that were left in the move too long. They were shorting that bottom down too much and then they got squeeze pop all right. We'll fast forward here, a little bit more and then you'll see the market sells off some more and where does it go to look at the spy upper left? We pretty much settle down to that longer term, lower trend and then eventually the market does try to bounce off that see it boom.
Now you're ad now you're, saying kind of look at these trends are moving. So how realistic are they because they're moving? I know nothing's ever 100 perfect, but the reality of the situation is the stock market moves up and down constantly, as it changes prices and as the market tries to auction off new prices to you. Let me rephrase something: as the market is auctioning day to day and someone is trying to auction you a price on the market. It's constantly moving.
So in order for you to have, you know, maybe correct support or resistance. Theoretically, it should update. So, yes, these lines do move a little bit, but that's the system trying to do its best job at properly calculating its statistical probability in the real time. So that's why they move.
So it's not a problem that they move. You should actually kind of be happy. They do because if they didn't, then your market would never update to the correct support resistance. Theoretically at least the way i see it.
Okay, everybody has their own approach, so i don't want to say mine's better than anyone's, but again that's the way. I see it. So i just hope that it - you know you understand it the way i see it there all right so now that we've covered all this price action stuff. I want you to take a look at the screen on the right, i'm not going to dive too deep into this option stuff, but i'm going to point out just a couple things that i noticed on the day.
Remember. This is my first time recording this video. The way that i did so, i'm probably not even the best, at figuring out the best premiums to maybe coincide with recording this session, but just know that i will eventually get there um and i already have plans of going and buying, like maybe four or five More computers so that i can record apple, tesla and facebook the same way you're seeing here, but with even more data - and i might just be crazy enough to do this for the next couple years um. So i hope that you guys enjoy this sort of informational content.
Again, i'm very passionate about the market. I love it. There's nothing more than i like about trading it, trying to figure it out it's funny, because every fool thinks they crack the stock market. So i'm just another one of those fools having fun diving deep into the rabbit hole. So i'm happy you guys are along with the journey with me. So let's go ahead and now we're going to pay attention to the screen on the right and we're going to look at some of this options. Data all right, so here are the things that i would be looking for, but didn't necessarily pick up too well on these settings that i had. So if i'm going to work.
If i was looking at the market on this day and i go, i think the markets can go to 380 right. You know, like that's my long target. Ideally, i would like to see as soon as the market opens. Some option flow data coming through for 380..
Why? Because i already have levels at 380., not that their resistance levels, their probability levels, i'm saying to myself these trend lines, there's only so many places the market can go for the day and i believe they can only go to and from and off of these statistical Levels that i've plotted right so i have faith conviction and my approach, and that is right. Now we have a target to 380.. So if, in the event we open up - and i see an accused 380 calls coming through then yeah - i'm going to consider that hey - maybe we are getting, you know some options - data targeting or sorry. You know if i see options, data targeting 380.
Okay, maybe we're gon na go there. So let's pay attention to the upper right qqq for now see what comes through and then we'll do the spot. So i'm just gon na go fast until we get something all right. So there's our first one to start the day, um, let's see and yeah, so there's our first one to start the day you can see right here.
377 put. Let me go more um, that's yeah. 377. Put, i think the spy is the one that does yeah the better stuff, so right now, you're seeing we're getting like 355 puts 377 puts, etc.
We haven't got anything to call to market up here. So let me explain that, basically, what this means is, since i didn't get any data suggesting 380, i'm scanning for premiums that are too high. My premium minimum here is uh, it's 200 000. So that means to start the day.
Nobody was comfortable putting more than like 200 000 on the line to target 380.. That's fine! All right, but people were suggesting that the market on the qs could see 355 355, 377 and 370., which, by the end of the day the market does end up trading down to 376 and like 375., so everybody betting, these three or sorry um. 377. Sorry, not 355.
um, but by the end of the day, 377 hits anyways. Let's continue all right so again, i think it was more or less um all right. So look at here all right. This is, this is another one that i want you to pay attention to.
So remember where we said we had resistance and our target was the 380.. This is, this is more so what i want you to pay attention to remember when i said the other day or not the other day, just just the same recording remember i was like i shorted right here. I did. I did a small short here. I didn't even wait for a lower high. I waited for nothing as soon as the market got to 3804. I just started selling it and the reason being is because that was my target. So to start the day, i was let's, let's just go through this ready.
So, to start the day, i am long biased up to 18. when we get there, i'm going to close my long and i'll look to be short biased. So i close my long at the long target. Now i flip short, i flip short before any option.
Data. Come through, but look at as soon as we tag here, you're going to see options. Data come through, for you know, there's 377 puts 378 puts and then there's even like a 1.3 million dollar options. Trade that comes through on the spy targeting - i don't know - maybe like 462.
- i don't know you'll see in a second, but the concept is: is a lot of people use options, market data to try to get an uh, an idea for how the direction of the Market's gon na go so for me it's more than that, i'm not using the options data to get a feel for where the market wants to go entirely. I am, and i'm not i'm also using the options market data to confirm the strategy that i already have in place. So for me, i'm already expecting the market to go to 380., i'm already expecting we have resistance at 380.. Now.
What i want to see is the options market confirm what i already believe to know. That's what i'm looking for. So now we get the 380. What happens all right? Look at both the spy i'll pause it ready so boom.
There goes the q. We get a 355 put: okay um, the spy we're getting 445 puts. Okay. I don't want to talk about those ones just yet.
You know we can talk forever, but i want to get to what's really important, but you can see right as soon as the market hits that resistance people are taking bearish bats. These ones, i'm not as interested in because they're so far down for now right. But i'm more interested in like hold on. Where are we at that? One right? There wait all right, excuse boom right there, that 370 and 378, that 378 to me is reliable right, because it's happening off the level i already knew was probably resistance, and then, when you look at 378, where is it? 378 is right here? So the price of the market is at like 380., so this is, like you know, two to one dollars out of the money right now targeting the 378., so this dude yaps in 203k in premium he's targeting 378.
markets trading 380ish above 378. right. So when i see that i go well 378's, not that far away right, betting, 370, that's really far away, and it's below all of my support. So, for me to go short here targeting 370, that's probably unrealistic that that will actually go in the money doesn't have to go in the money to make money, but just in general, if we're picking what can probably work or probably actually happen successfully 378 has a Legitimate chance of working you're short off 380, you only got to go down two dollars to go in the money that can actually work, and the reason i believe it can work is because, when i also look left at the spy, the spy does not have any Support until 462., so the way that i see this is if i were to be entering short off the 380 on the queues and off the high a day here on the spy. My spy short is nothing more than 460 250 to like that 461. Since that's where all the monthly levels are at all right - and in this case on the qs, i wouldn't be short anything more than 372 but anyways, so you can see. Market comes in with a 378 put off the 380. all right, and then you will see that the spy ends up getting some stuff here in a sec.
I'm pretty sure it gets that big 1.3 million dollar order all right. So there you can see 460. Put. Look at the spy, someone entered a 460 put right there or did the million dollar trade? Are you come in? It should have come in huh.
Maybe it didn't. Let me see was it on the queues and i'm just forgetting which one it was. Maybe it was the cues and there yeah, so it was. It was the cues okay, so it was a 355.
It was a 355 put ready the 355 put on the qs right there. That is, you got two of them. You got one for so about a total of 1.2 million, so that 1 million and then the 269 000 that comes in right at the 380.. Sorry, that's what i was looking for earlier.
I just thought it wasn't. It was a different put, but all right! So, look at what happens when the queues get straight to 380. 380 18. boom.
All right! Look at how aggressive it pulls back as soon as it tags it for the first time ready see that drop and then look at what came in 1 million 269 000. On 355 puts so arguably this is this, is this is very, very down the rabbit hole? Kind of you could argue that the market got to 380, someone yapped in 1.2 million dollars in puts, and then the market dropped to essentially calculate that big bearish bet. They came in. You could argue that the market hit 380 and people sold a bunch of puts people sold to spy people sold the queues, and then the market just happened to tank there, because resistance was there.
You could argue that some the market got up to 380, somebody put through 1.2 million dollars in puts and then because of that everybody else thought the market should be bare. So then the market's sold right. So it doesn't it it's too confusing to guess about how or which way all of the pieces fall into place. You know in how the market works every single time, but you don't have to because again your target was potentially 380 18.
You knew it could be resistance, so you're looking for resistance there and what happens as soon as you get there. Oh someone bets 1.2 million bearish on puts. Arguably they're 355 puts so they're pretty far away, not a chance of going in the money today. Remember just because they can't go in the money today doesn't mean it won't make money as long as the market actually goes down from here. Those 355 puts can actually make money. So as long as a person betting, this put gets a favorable volatile direction in his favor, really immediately he's probably gon na make some good money, okay and so here's. The other thing is these expire in seven days. So when you look at the expiry of them, they expire in seven days so that person put in a one point.
You know: two million dollar bet that the market would go to 355 within seven days time, or else he loses all of his money. So as long as his you know, one point you know: three million dollars goes towards 355, at least immediately once he enters it with good volatility. He can literally probably make a couple hundred thousand bucks sell 90 of his position and then rides him out if he wanted to okay. So, in a nutshell, um, that's kind of what happens to the market we'll go fast forward through.
All of this you'll see that, on the top we're getting 378 puts on the spy, we're getting 455 puts and we'll keep going through a little bit and we might get some call action here. I can't remember if i recorded long enough, i didn't but anyways. That's the video for you guys today, uh so to wrap it up. This was a trading session recorded a friday on the spy and on the cues, while simultaneously looking at options market data to help.
You guys see better for yourself in real time how my trading strategy actually works while having options market data to back it up so you're, not just looking at these trend lines that i've placed on a chart for some random guy in youtube and say this is Legit i wanted to have some sort of evidence to back it up, so you guys can see it all in real time. So i hope that that was beneficial. I hope this has enlightened you guys to a new scoop on the market. Please let me know what you guys think in the comment section below as i've never done a video like this.
I apologize for some of the quality of the recording on the five-minute charts, but if you guys could let me know what you think about of the video in the comment section below i'd be grateful and if you guys know of any really good like options scanning Filters that you think would be beneficial for me to check out that could maybe make this better. Then i will totally be open to you know. Looking at that as well, so appreciate you guys everybody take care and have a great rest of your day.
Excellent video. Thx
Thank YOU for these videos
I absolutely loved this video and would like to see more if these down the road. Thanks C.