In this video I will show you how to build a bulletproof investment portfolio for 2023 (from scratch). I will talk about what type of stocks to invest in or how to balance your portfolio and mitigate any potential risks. This would be most relevant for long term investors. After you watch this video, you will have a better idea on how to build your stock investment portfolio for 2023.
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Hey, this is Tom and I'm going to assume here even though I was told never to assume because you make an ass out of you and me a long time ago. I'm going to assume that if I say that investing is very, very hard, most of you would agree and rightfully so. Studies of the past 30 years show one clear thing: Most individual retail investors get hammered in the stock market every single year. Now that doesn't add up because the S P 500 over the past 30 years did 10 average per year.

So if the stock market keeps going up every year on average 10 percent, how come most retail investors lose? Well, it mainly has to do with human psychology. One of the worst things that screw investors every year for decades is frequency of trading. People can't let their app go. They have to get on it and trade.

And trade. And trade. Now, frequency of trading for a long-term investor is one of the worst things you can do. And it's not me saying that it's Fidelity Fidelity Had a study in which they take a look at all of their portfolios and they found out their their best portfolios belong to either people who have died or people who forgot they got in count.

Literally, people who haven't touched their app in years. They beat everybody else by country mile. Now the other thing is obviously trying to time the market which is nothing more by gambling. you know.

I Can go to a casino and play the roulette table and occasionally win. but can I systematically beat the house? No. And you're playing against the house because you're playing against institutional investors with better resources, better information, more money than you. So you're coming with a toothpick to a machine gun fight.

So frequency trading trying to time to Market Those are things that are destroying people. not to mention chasing hype. What's going on right now with AI hype? Everybody is chasing the hype. Chasing the hype may work short term, but long term it will destroy a lot of people.

Some will make money, but a lot of them will be left bag holding. So now that we know that these three things destroy portfolios, how do we take them out? Now in this video, I'm going to give you a complete guide not only how to take these things out, but how to structure your portfolio. How to invest in it, How to manage it, How to pick the best stocks, Everything you need to know as an investor. and I Know this video isn't for everybody.

I Get it, No problem. I'm good with it, but this is kind of a overall tutorial on how to become a better investor. A to Z By the time you leave this video, you'll know everything you need to know on being a long-term investor. So how do we eliminate these three things? Well, it starts by being methodical and the best way to do it is understanding the structure of your portfolio.

Now believe me when I say this. it's not complicated. People on TV and on some YouTube channels they want you to think that this is some sort of a rocket science. Only they can teach you the wisdom.
It's actually very simple. I'm going to show you right now, every single portfolio can be broken down to three main elements: Bonds, value, stocks, growth, stocks, that's it. Now, if you know that your portfolio is comprised out of these three elements, or at least it should be, and by the end of this video, it will be. How do you determine what's the right allocation for each group, how much bonds, how much stocks, and how much basically within each stock, how much value, and how much growth? Now, obviously, each of you is a unique individual with your own risk aversion with your own preferences, and you have to make that decision with yourself with a professional.

But in this video, I'm going to use a generic General kind of category just to show you the principles because I think it can be grouped by age. Now if you're 30 years old or younger, basically, the majority of your portfolio will be in stocks. So 90 of your portfolio will be in stocks, 10 will be in bonds and most of you under 30 don't have bonds at all and that's a mistake. Put 10 in Balance Now from that, 90 stocks.

I would just use a generic 50, 50 split 45 in growth, 45 in value and 10 in bonds. Now if we go up another decade and you're 30 to 40 years old, it's a very, very little change. All you have to do here is add ten percent another 10 to bonds. So now that you have a twenty percent Bond all location and we have an even Steven Forty forty forty percent growth stocks Forty percent value stocks.

Now if you 40 to 50 years old, it gets interesting because at this point you're going heavy on value stocks. That means you stay with 20 pounds, You go down to twenty percent growth stocks and sixty percent of your portfolio goes to value stocks. Now you're getting older. We're getting down to that 50 range 50 to 60.

There's a slight change. Now you're going in the opposite direction. Now you're going 50 bonds and then 25 growth stocks, 25 value stocks. And if you're 16, over 60 of your portfolio will be in bonds.

Thirty percent will be in value stocks and 10 will be in growth because at this point your risk appetite is almost non-existent Now obviously this is a very General way to put this and I'm assuming that all of you will have your own allocations. but I just wanted to give you the guiding principle of how I would look at this. but I would say it's not a bad way to allocate your portfolio even if you don't do anything else but put the age bracket in it. Now let's move on.

Now that we know that each individual component has to get a certain percentage, what do we put in it? We have the title. We have the category. But what stocks do we choose for value? And what stocks do we choose for growth? That's very important. This next part is called research.

You have to research potential candidates for your portfolio and you have to do it like there's no tomorrow. Spend as much time on it as you need. This has to be the most time consuming category from your entire process. You cannot invest in companies you have not researched.
You cannot understand it. Don't buy it. Simple Warren Buffett Once said, I'm sure that if you try to invest in company you don't understand. It's like trying to drive a car lying on your back naked from from the trunk.

Yikes. Now obviously. Warren Buffett didn't say that I just made it up. But I mean might as well.

So many quotes that he has not made are listed and credited to his name. Absolutely incredible. Now going back to the serious mode. How do you research a stock? Well, you researched a business.

First of all, not a stock. Change your terminology. Change your language. Right now, you're buying a piece of the business.

You're not buying a stock. It's not some sort of a paper. It's not a virtual digital thing. You're buying a piece of a business right now.

I Know I Just said it like piss. But I mean peace. I Don't know what my Russian action. Do Not Buy Peace Business.

Do Not buy Buy good business. The way to do it is by three stages. Stage number One would be looking at the business. Look at the time, Look at their business model.

Look at their brand recognition. Look at everything that has to do with the way they conduct their business. Is it viable? Is it sustainable? Will it be around the 10 years? What's the position in the market? All the things that you will not find in the balance sheet and you would not find anywhere else but researching the actual company. Now, once you've done that and you understood what the company does, What is its business model? What is the total addressable? Market What's the projector of the complaint? then you move to stage two.

Stage two is opening the books. All public companies have to give you their financials. Which means you have access to the balance sheet to the cash flow to the income statement. All of it is right in front of you.

Make sure you understand everything in the balance sheet. Look at how much cash they have, What's the change in cash? How much debt they have compared to cash? What's the change in debt? Look at assets. Look at liabilities. Look at the composition of assets.

How much good assets? How much? Bad Assets If they have Goodwill For example, that's Polony, but there's a lot in it that you have to analyze most of it. We cover on their Patreon page at Patreon.com forward slash: Tom Nash More on that later. But let's keep moving with the company. now.

look at the cash flow. Look at how much company is burning, or how much it's making. You have to understand if it actually will need more capital in the future because if the company is burning money and they have cash for two years, you know that there's a delusion coming or there's more debt coming. Neither are good.
For long-term investors, you have to understand the financials the company by heart. When they wake you up at 1am and you can tell me exactly what's their net debt. that's the point where you get to now. the third stage after you understood their business and after you understood their financials, is looking at the ratios.

And specifically I look at two ratios which are pretty much all I Need to know PE which is price to earnings and PS which is not what you think, not the letter One price. The sales price to earnings compares the share price with the earnings per share price to sales Compares how much revenue they got with the actual price of the stock. Now when you look at the company from the perspective of these two ratios, what you need to understand is these are not absolute numbers. Now you have to understand what a PE means if I look at a company and they got a 10pe in their Bank.

Well, that's great. That's pretty much where it should be. But if I'm looking at a high growth company with terrific fundamentals, amazing profit margins, and sort of oldest trajectory, and it's a 10pe might be an opportunity. A PE is an industry-based metric, so you have to understand which industry you're looking at here.

So that's part of the deal here. Understanding each industry's standard of PE and then comparing it to your company because it's a relative thing you have to understand if your company is expensive or cheap compared to the industry. FPE on a standalone basis as well as price to sales are absolutely meaningless. and obviously, as an investor, you want to see lower PE than usual and lower price to sales.

As usual, it's not hard to buy a company that everybody knows about. Nvidia is one example with the PE of whatever gazillion, right? It's a great company, but the PE is so high that you see that it's over hyped and pretty much overbought. It doesn't mean that Nvidia is a bad investment, it just means that you have to figure out what are the hidden gems here. You cannot go all in 100.

Nvidia You need other stocks as well. Same thing for Tesla You have to have a diverse 5 portfolio and you can find five or six, or even 10 companies that are great. But what about the rest? Now here's the important part. Once you're done with these three processes, you have to understand that the P or Ps it doesn't matter, the balance sheet it doesn't matter, and the business model it doesn't matter On the Standalone basis.

These three categories of examining company are meaningless. You have to take a look at this from a holistic point of view. All of these have to combine into one analysis that tells you if this company is for you or not. if you see a company with a great ratio but a bad business model and the one thing I Want to explain here that you have to balance this out Every quarter.
Every quarter you go in and you compare your analysis your thesis about the company to the previous quarter because you have to make sure that the companies that are in your stable nothing has changed for you from a fundamental perspective, that your thesis have not been shattered and that has to be done every quarter or every time something happens. That justifies you taking a look again at the company because all of a sudden if major issues have changed with the company and the fundamentals are not as good, you have to adjust and if that happens, if your thesis is no longer there, that company has to go. It cannot stay in your portfolio. But about how to buy, How to sell, How much to buy, How much to sell? That's the next stage now.

I Don't know how many of you actually do a budget right now I suggest all of you started today. Now comment below. if you currently have a budget or don't have a budget for your household or yourself I Want to know I'm guessing 50 of you do not currently manage a budget and that's horrible when I was working for Deloitte for 10 years as a senior manager. One of the things that I saw that even millionaires company owners CEOs people who were insanely Rich One thing in common for all of them: they all had a budget for every single dollar they spent.

The most successful people I met always knew exactly how much money they got in the pocket, how much money they're spending to the dollar. In fact, to the Cent And here's a quick tip on how to build your budget in five seconds. Basically, you make a table In that table, you add in all your income after tax dollars. So after you pay tax on these dollars, how much you have from your salary from whatever right, you subtract your expenses.

You have fixed expenses like a mortgage or rent, and you have variable expenses such as food, entertainment, travel, whatever. And then at the end of the day you have an amount that's the remainder amount. That amount you use. Number One, hopefully to repay debt.

Number One: You repay all your debts except a mortgage. A mortgage I'm willing to accept and Ben Ramsey right over here, right? But accept the mortgage. Everything has to be repaid. I Don't want you to invest money in the stock market before you're paid your expensive credit card debt.

So once you zeroed out your credit card debt and it's gone, then you allocate it to three things: Number One: Savings. You Have to have savings. Especially now with high yield savings accounts. Make sure that the FDIC insured you can get four percent in savings accounts right now.

Number two: Emergency Fund Six months worth of living. So these two things get filled up before investing after you've done those. then you start putting money in the stock market and that remaining amount. whatever it is, goes in your portfolio based on your allocation.
But how much of it? Here's the tricky part. So the way we do it and what we each on our patient page and patreon.com forward slash: Tom Nash more on that at the end of the video. For those who are interested to learn, this is our system. Our system is very simple.

Whatever the amount is left. Let's say the amount we have left right now is Three thousand dollars, right? Cool. How do we invest this three thousand dollars now? I Already told you what your application should be based on your age. So I Know that 20 is in bonds, 40 in growth, 40 in value Just for the example, right? But wait, we're going to use a DCA method.

A DCA mean dollar cost average. Meaning we're going to buy the same amount every single month regardless of the price of the share, regardless of the market, regardless of everything fixed amount. Buying every single month into good companies. Remember stage one, We selected our good companies and now we're buying a fixed amount.

We're allocating a three thousand dollars. Only thing is, you're allocating fifteen hundred dollars unless what happens unless we go below the threshold line. Now here's the thing. You want to keep half of the money as powder on the side.

So when your dollar cost averaging, you dollar cost averaging with half your money, half your money, half your money, and half your money stays on the side. Why? Because when a stock from your stable goes below the threshold line, that is where you actually start to double take money from your powder and then you go and you double. So for example, in our example, we have 10 stocks, We have Three thousand dollars and now we're going to put fifteen hundred dollars to the side and fifteen hundred dollars every month. we're gonna invest So that fifteen hundred dollars over ten stocks, right? We know the number is a hundred dollars.

Sorry, 150 per stock, right? 150 per stock, And now we buy. We buy, We buy. and all of a sudden One Stock Boom. it hits the threshold.

What is that threshold? That threshold is ten percent below the 52-week high. For example, Tesla has a 52 week high of 317 dollars. The moment Tesla goes below 280 dollars, it is within that threshold. So now we take money from a dry powder which we saved on the side.

and now Tesla is getting bought at 300 a month, not 150. and we keep buying 300 per month on Tesla and any other company that's within the threshold as long as it stays there the moment it goes above the threshold inside that range of 10 from the 52-week high. Which means in the case of Tesla 280 and above, we go back, we put the money to the side and we keep buying 150. That system of buying more when the company is below and buying less when it rises creates a weighted average for your cost basis in the company.

and that ensures that in three years when you take a look at your cost basis in this company, your cost basis is going to be way closer to the bottom of the stock in that time period than to the top. You're cheating the system. You're creating a cost basis that almost very very close to the bottom without timing the market without emotions, without anxiety, without Panic Without formal without nothing. It works every time, and that's what we teach.
But the problem is that it only works. It only works if you selected the right companies. If you screwed up stage one and you've selected bad companies, this whole system is meaningless. This whole system only works if you actually selected the good companies.

And this is what I want to finish the video with If you want to learn how to select good companies by learning how to become a better company Evaluator: How to do a proper due diligence on a company Financial Due diligence, Business Due diligence. How to put an objective value on the company and not screw it up and have an idea of how to accumulate good companies inside your portfolio. Join our Patreon page: Patreon.com Forward slash: Tom Nash We just launched Tom's Academy This is what we teach you. We teach you how to run your own DCF How to use multiples, how to create a better process, a discipline, a system, a methodical thing which you can repeat time and time and time again without emotions, without fear, without panic and duplicate it so that most of your stocks, not every stock, that most of your stocks in portfolio will be good choices so that your DCA actually means something at the end of the day.

Now if again, Patron.com Forward slash: Tom Nash 30 days You get to drive for 30 days. If you're not happy with my stuff, get a refund. no questions asked. That's how I'm confident in my content and that's how I'm confident in my Patreon page.

and I hope this video helped you. Even if you don't join my Patreon, that's fine. Get me to answer some questions by commenting below with what you want to hear about. more, What you didn't understand, What you want me to expand on.

I'm going to engage with questions on this video more than ever. So comment below anything you want to know about this process about the system and I'm going to answer it right away in the next couple of days. Thank you so much for your attention! I Love you all I Love my patrons I Love my viewers, even my haters. See you next video.


By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

26 thoughts on “How to build a bulletproof portfolio for 2024”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gautam says:

    Is bonds equivalent to debt fund? What bond instruments do you know for the UK?

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mies Deventer says:

    Thank you

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Fred Psimas says:

    Perfect portfolioโ€ฆbuy Teslaโ€ฆauto, fsd, Optimus, solar, energy, more on the way!

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Browngroupinc says:

    Geo thoughts Tom

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars The Midwest Connect says:

    Great channel for simplifying what to look for when investing. ๐Ÿ’ฏ

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Shao Kahn says:

    Thanks

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Good Guuy says:

    I'd include some notions of a minimum diversification in terms of 1. Sector (e.g. minimum 5 different sectors) and 2. Nr of stocks (e.g. minimum 15 different companies). Great content!

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Froskiโšœ๏ธ says:

    Would it be possible for you to analyze ford?

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars IssaTruble says:

    Oof, is it time for me to add bonds? Still 100% stocks at 35 and closing in on a half milli within a couple years.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kare Tehikoski says:

    What If you are just 3month old, what stock to pic ๐Ÿค“ (Yes baby have account )

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Nyle says:

    My takeaway from this video: avoid the piss businesses, they're bad.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ebd22 says:

    Thank you for your content and for your very useful teachings! ๐Ÿ™

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gary Weiss says:

    Tom, what is short interest for PLTR, and what we might see in case of the short squeeze?
    Thank you

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Smiley Stevie says:

    Thanks, Tom, for an informative video with a holistic view of investment.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Andy Saw says:

    love your method, really take the guesswork out of trading. May i check if there is any way of automating this on the thinkorswim platform?

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Keith Petersen says:

    Great information. Thanks

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars yusufonepiece says:

    I really enjoyed this video. Nice well rounded packet of quality information

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars atgul says:

    It is a toothpick

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars cmwchay says:

    How about a little more effort to make some slides/visuals that can be shown on side screen for presentations like this?

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars David Hastings says:

    โคโคโคExcellent ๐Ÿ’ฏ I'm so impressed and grateful that I'm going to join your Patreon group.
    I loved your budgeting strategy. What is your opinion on the " 75/15/10 %" Budget ?
    75 % Max Spending,15% Automatic Minimum Invest & 10% Automatically Save Minimum. Basically every dollar has a job & I'm technically broke financially every pay period in a Good way .What's left over from the 75% Spending Budget goes to the Invest or Save Budget depending on if the Emergency Fund is 6 Month funded.
    Thank you Tom I love โค๏ธ your content,
    David from NYC

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars FallenByTheHand says:

    I have a monthly household budget. Some part I set aside monthly for yearly costs, some small part I set aside for savings, and a larger part I set aside for monthly dividend investing (DCA-like, but usually different companies). I have one rest budget for "fun stuff" that I don't further.

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jane Cargill says:

    Hey Tom! Thank you for being so generous, consistent and raw:) Question for you, what if you in your early 50's and just getting started? How would you proceed with allocation etc. Asking for a friend!

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Aaron Barnard says:

    You've released some really informative and valuable investing content these past few weeks. Thank you.

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars James Clark says:

    Another great video! Thanks Tom.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Pure Enrg says:

    I have a Budget and it's critical to hit your retirement goals and life goals.

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars DustinP11 says:

    One question I have. I have a Brokerage account, HSA, and a Roth IRA. Do you change your strategy for each kind of account? I am 36 for reference. Or do you buy the same in each account?

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