If you can make it through the end of this video uh, you will have entered a very deep, deep rabbit hole in the stock market when it comes to trading material and education. Um i've tried to make the video 25 maybe even 40 times. I keep having to redo it because it just kind of there's just so much to it. So there's no other way for me to present this video to you other than just drilling this information into your head.

There's going to be no fluff, there is no hand holding i mean this is just going to be. It is what it is and if you listen to it and follow it and trust it, you will never trade the market the same again, you will have gone down this rabbit hole in this video and you will never exit that rabbit hole. You will stay on this rabbit hole, so i'm i believe i am going to take you down a path um that you won't be able to reverse uh once you've entered. So if i do my job correctly, that's what's supposed to happen.

So please, let me know in the comment section below if by all said and done in this video, you feel like you've entered the rabbit hole and your trading trading has maybe changed after seeing this video. So i know there's beginners that are going to be watching this, and i know that there is probably some advanced traders that might be watching this. I will try to speak to both for the beginners that are just now watching this video. If you are looking at my screen, you're looking at these lines, you're like whoa, that looks crazy.

What is that? What are those they're just support and resistance levels? In reality, there will be um at least one video linked in the description of this video that will teach you how to set up those lines uh for free um. So there will be some videos linked in description that will give you some more background and context and like how you set up those trends. So just so you know those are support and resistance levels, their probability levels and their trend lines. So with that being said, uh we're going to get into this video, but if you're a beginner just watching, all you have to know is there's support and resistance.

So, while we're going through this video, you can just treat it as such support and resistance and levels at which the market would probably try to trade too. Okay, so now that we've done that we are going to jump and look at spy and qqq the market took a big downturn. Today it went through a pretty big drop. So what i'm trying to help you guys understand is why the market topped.

So so, if i do my job correctly, i should be able to help you understand why the market topped here, why it bounced here, why it bounced here why it stopped there, why it bounced, here literally every single one of those movements, okay and the beauty of It is, is, you will be able to know that that can happen before it happens? You just have to wait for it. Sometimes that makes sense. So, let's get into it. Let's say this morning and this in in we're going to bounce back and forth to these charts.

Remember it's going to be a rabbit, hole! Okay, let's say this morning: you're trading queues and you're like getting long here and you're like. Can it go higher this, whatever right so you're? Looking at this chart, if you don't run the same charting system as me, which is okay, then you are or will be, determining this top some way else or determining this could be resistance, some way else. Okay for sure now, if you look at the cues, you can see that our charting system has lines here, lines here and lines all the way down here. It does not have anything here.

In the beginning of this video, we told you that these levels are support. Their probabilities they can break down, they can be support, they can be resistance, they can be resistance, they can be support, so they're just levels of support, resistance and probabilities. When we say probabilities, we mean, as instead of considering them to be just support or just resistance. They are price points in probabilities where the market wants to trade to and it's whether or not the market finds demand at them.

Whether or not the market finds demand at them or finds sellers at them or finds demand at them, but also probability levels, meaning they will trade to and from and to away back to away to a new away back to all right. So that's how i'm hoping uh we're going to start that off with is these are levels at which you can just expect. The markets will probably try to trade to on a day-to-day basis, aside from markets your stocks as well. Okay.

So when we look at the cues you're asking yourself connor, there's no line up here, so how why what again markets aren't perfect and nothing is ever totally perfect. So i'm gon na pull up the spy. Now, when we look at the spy, you will see when it loads which, by the way the charts are taking longer to load today, because the market's having such a bad day and when the markets have such a bad day, everybody logs into their account and does A bunch of trading, because the volatility or they're closing positions, because they're scared and then all the brokers end up slowing on that day, which is another helpful tip for you in this rabbit, hole that if there is a day where the stock market really crashes, like The dot-com bubble or 2008 - we have one of those really really really really really really crazy days or a couple weeks going down. People will have absolutely terrible times trying to get into their brokerage accounts.

So just know if you're someone, that's like, can't wait for the stock market to crash gon na short everything you better have your short positions in before the stock market crashes, because the day that they're crashing, you won't be able to get into your platforms, and you Will not be able to make trades? How do i know because i've already witnessed this firsthand multiple times, so you can't convince me that the next time is going to be any different if the next time is even worse than the past events, we've seen again, that's rabbit, hole stuff, let's get into the Good stuff, so how would you have known that the market could top where it topped? Well, you see these levels here on the spy. This 473 always was a projected long target and potential resistance for the market. So today we basically got there right. So then, the market topped could not get above that level right.

So as you're watching this market go up and you're shying away from it and just cannot break it, it's just not going to it and it's avoiding it. Maybe having resistance. Okay, so today and you'll see that the market hit it yesterday ahead of resistance. So again yesterday it hit its target.

It hit the 473 trend target bam. Remember these are probability levels and resistance levels and support levels. They can be everything and anything you want them to be at the end of the day. It just means that the market will probably trade to it.

Market will probably trade to it, maybe find resistance trade to a different one. So when we think about yesterday, to the day on the spy market, moves up, hits resistance pulls back off of it, we hold overnight, then we go back up, try to retest and get over. We fail. So it's basically just double topping off of this level, and you can have more conviction that this is going to be resistance because you're, not just judging it, based off of a previous move down in the market.

You're. Judging it based off of a statistical trend that you know exists that you saw before the market even got there so again, when spy was here, you already said the market could probably go to that level. So when it trades up to that level, you've succeeded in analyzing where the market could probably go now that it's gotten there should you try to buy it and keep breaking it out or should you go? Maybe it finds resistance, so it finds resistance. So tomorrow, you're not saying hey: this is a resistance because we top there you're going.

No, this is potential resistance because, yes, we topped there, but it was also our predetermined statistical trend line so instead of you guessing as to why it may be top there. You know exactly why it topped there, because it ran into the trend that you already knew existed so going into today. You say to yourself markets, maybe go long, but they can only break out and continue long bias over that high, because that high is the trend system. So we can see the market go long to it, but don't expect anything too much more unless you can fully get over and hold above so markets top in that top on the spy right is what i don't want to say indefinitely, but that statistical price point Slash resistance on the spy which was visible, gives you visible representation of where resistance could be on the market, even though you may not have had any visible representation of resistance here on the qs.

That's why i was going through such a lengthy explanation of that top on the spy see if you look at the cues from the previous day disregard this level for now we're not going to just disregard that one. When you look at the top from the queues yesterday, you'll see there was, it was not on the trend. There was no, there was no level there. It just looks like it stopped dead in its tracks in the market.

That's because when this topped on the qs, the spy was hitting that statistical trend, we just showed you so yesterday you can think of this as the spy. The spy ran up into that statistical trend, resistance and topped, and today the spy ran up into that statistical resistance and topped, even though there wasn't one being provided to you on the cues, if you were watching the spy, you would have known that, just in general S p 500 market was at a potential resistance, so obviously, then the queues are probably going to have some resistance. Okay, so let's say you entered short on the top of the market today, because you saw that resistance and you go hey this. We could go higher, but i know this is trend resistance, so this is sort of low risk.

So i enter short, so you enter short now and you're in a play. What do you do? Okay, so now that you've entered short because, let's flip flop, sorry we're doing so much flip-flopping we just have to for me in order to properly explain this all the way that i see it every day, there's just no other way. I have to take you down the rabbit hole: okay, see how slow these charts are, gee, so p, all right, which sucks cause we're gon na flip right back to the cues um. Actually, no, i think i'm just gon na we'll.

Do it like this we'll do top to bottom now so now that i've done enough explaining we'll go top to bottom okay, so you entered short the market today because you saw there was resistance there. Okay, so now you're saying yourself: how far can this go or where is this going to go all right? So this is a situation when i'm looking at the market and when i'm gauging trades, i am always looking at the spy and i'm always looking at the cues. They work well. For me, good gauge, and today i would say: okay, so the spy has resistance.

473. So we can't really go much higher in the market until we actually surpass those levels so for now we'll watch long into. But if markets can't get above, then we'll look to be bearish off of, and if we go bearish off of these levels, then we need to have some sort of ideas where the market could go. So we know that these levels are resistance and these levels could be support, but these levels are also probabilities and these levels are probabilities, which means the market could probably go there and the market could probably go here.

So if the market stops here, where could the market probably go to next? Well, we would look to our levels in which we believe our probability levels in potential levels. So if the spy hits resistance and just in general market has resistance and we're going to go the opposite way, we just assume we can probably go to the next probability level, which in this case today was 387 18 on the qs all right. So as before. We had mentioned these levels or probabilities, so once you enter short top of spy market or just q market, then you say: okay, we are going to sorry once you did that you would basically just say yourself: okay, we are going to look for the cues to Go down to this level and if there's no significant buying volume when they get there or we determine that, we think it can go lower or there's not enough buying volume here to support our first level, then we're gon na go further.

Once we break this one and we remain below you just target the next one. Now you see once you get to this one, you do get a little buying volume. This could arguably have convinced people to close their short. Take it off.

That's, okay, all right! Then you will see this market bounces up a little bit earlier. In the day, this was more accurate. You see how those levels just move. You see how the levels do move.

That's because they're statistical probability levels in order for them to remain accurate and consistent. They have to continuously update with the market or with the data that is presented in the market. So some people go. Oh connor will the levels move and how do you trust them? Well again, how do you, how do you not trust them? If they don't move, they should move, because the market continuously moves.

So if your trend is going to be accurate, your trend is continuously moving, so nonetheless, you see that gray line there. That gray line was much closer to the top of that trend a little earlier but anyways. Nonetheless, you will see we trade down to this level and then we bounce and then we fade below and cannot hold it. So guess what it breaks down more.

So anybody who bought the dip off this statistical probabilistic trend they could very well hold as a bounce, just got stopped out and it's their selling pressure now taking the market down once again. So we get to this point now at this point you see, there's no trend and we bounce and we get to this point on the spy and there's no trend and we bounce. I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole, but i could look at the dow jones right now and there could have been a level there that made sense as to why the market bounced. But i don't want to tie in too much and complicate you guys, so i will say there's other ways of potentially determining that bottom by looking at other indices.

There's also ways of determining this could be a short-term bottom by a relative strength index bullish, divergence, which i guarantee happened, i'm not even going to put it on the chart. I already know it happened, so there's ways that you could determine that hey. Maybe this will do a short-term bounce, even though there isn't a level okay. So, aside from trying to determine this would be a bounce with an rsi or some other indicator, because you don't have a level right so you're looking at this market going.

Can it bounce here right? Is it going to bounce? Is this the bottom, even though you're not on a level right and without using an indicator? You could say this that each one of these levels is a breakdown or a breakout. So when we broke down this level, we went to the next one. What do we do? We bounce back to retest the breakout, slash breakdown, it wanted to continue the downtrend, so we go down right and then this level that we just tried to hold to support that breaks down. So theoretically, it's a breakout to the downside.

This is a move back up to retest the breakdown to say: do we want to stay down trending? Yes, so then the market moves off of it. So, even though there was not a level here that you could have gauged to be a potential bounce, you should also condition your mind in psychology to that of each one of these levels. Whether going down through or coming up above through is a breakout and a breakdown, even though it does not look like some bullish flag pattern that breaks out that you're so used to hearing right, even though there's no pattern as it's breaking down here right, it is One and that's why you typically get those counter trend, balances that stop randomly and then keep going? Okay, because there are these levels in the middle of the charts that are breakouts and our breakdowns. And if you don't know those levels, then you're not far enough down the rabbit hole, my friend so with that being said, condition your mind to also consider that, alongside of these being support, these being resistance, these being a level or a probability where the markets are Trying to go to that once one of the levels is breached on the downside or the upside, that it is a breakout, and you will most likely at some point retrace back to that level.

That was broken to either confirm the continuation of that same trend or to attempt to reverse the direction of the current trend. So what i mean is, if i were to zoom in here all right and we say hey: this is a potential level, but we broke it down and we went to the next one and now we're balancing. We could say this market is, you would basically say this is this is downtrend, and this is a counter trend, bounce back to retest the breakdown and only and if only we get back above and start holding above has this downtrend for the intraday reversed? Okay. So that's one way you can train your psychology is that each one of these levels is a breakdown right.

So when we break this down, we have almost started a new cycle, and that cycle is to this level. Okay and when we start to bounce this level, the maximum potential of this bounce cycle would be back to that level. Then you could only expect more profit out of this bounce. In the event you got above and held above because at that point you could be starting a second leg to that bounce and reversing the trend back up.

Otherwise, it's a counter trend, bounce and then trend resumes back down, okay and so do consider these levels to be breakdowns in breakouts, so that that way, when a level does break like here, sorry when a level breaks like here and it bounces randomly in the middle Of the chart, even though it's not on any one of the levels that we emphasize so strongly about, it's probably because the market instead of running down to the next level and bouncing right away, wanted to retest the breakdown to confirm before the market went, show all The way down to here and tried to bounce there, okay, so yes, the market bounced randomly and if the market had just went straight down, it would have bounced here instead, but the market before going all the way down said: hey, let's confirm before we destroy everyone's Day really quickly, and then they did all right if you were an early long trader here, this was the market, giving you one last opportunity to get out at break, even small loss before getting destroyed again. Okay. So now, what we're going to do is we're going to bring up options data so that that way, you can see how really big investors trade the market as well, by having some of this to guide you along the way. So now, what i'm going to do is i'm going to bring up unusual whales? Okay.

So this is a web service site um. I will not leave a link down in the description, i'm not even an affiliate of them, but you can just sign up for them. If you feel you would like to but anyways so unusual wales, it's a service and it's a site that tracks options: market data - if you've made it this far in the video. Congratulations because you are making it very far into the rabbit hole.

You do not have to go through this data on a day-to-day basis by any means necessary. But if you want more data in more information as to why things do what they do, then you will do this. The only way that i, as an individual have ever been able to become really really really good at something is by knowing as many ins and outs as possible, because that's just the way my brain works. Um is if i'm gon na do something you know it could take me a while.

It could take me less time, but nonetheless, i need to know why this does that, because if i don't know why it does that, then i'm not going to know why. This does this, and eventually it's just not going to make enough sense to me. So for me, this is something interesting that i like to do. So we are going to type in uh cues.

Here we're going to do qqq. What we're doing is. We are looking at all of the option trades for today. Okay, so we're looking at option trades for today that are going to meet uh, this specific filter range, which again don't get too confused by the filter range.

Let me explain: we're basically scanning the options market for people that are spending thousand dollars or more on options that expire within seven days time, and we only want out of the money options for someone who's, a beginner they're. Probably what the hell did that guy just say. Let me make it very simple for you, everything that i have filtered here and that's being presented here on the screen. Are people placing bets they're placing bats within a specific time frame if any of these individuals or hedge funds or institutions, or some kind of sweatpants, like me, sitting at home, makes one of these bats and one of these bats that they're making does not come correct Within a certain specific time, they will lose their entire bat.

That's all. This is all the filters and things you're looking at have more meaning, but as simple as you can make it is. These are just people or institutions or entities or whatever placing various bets on the stock market just like when people go to the casino and they play roulette. People place money on black, they place money on red, they place money on, you know, number 52 or whatever and they're just placing various bets at which they believe the roulette table is going to hit so each day in the stock market.

Realistically, there's only so many things it can do. I know you as a beginner might be thinking to yourself it's random and it can go wherever it wants. No, it can't. Actually, how do i know so well, look at the stock chart of any stock chart.

Look at the stock market. Look at it. Does it go wherever it wants to go every single day, or does it generally have a certain amount of money that it typically moves on a day sure there could be days where things move bigger than normal or your stock only typically moves five dollars on the Day but all of a sudden it's moving ten dollars a day that can happen. I'm not saying it can't, but if you honestly think about it, the stock market and prices of things can only do so much.

So when you start to think there's only so much something can actually do on the day, then there really isn't many or there there doesn't become so many possibilities right like if a stock can actually it can only move five dollars up or down in the day Or five dollars in total on a day, whether that be two down 2.5 down and 2.5 up, it can only move five dollars. So if you figure out the expected range or say the limits or the boundaries of that market, then it can only move about five dollars within that range or within that boundary. So when you start to think about it and all the outcomes that can possibly happen there, isn't that many it's how the market develops is what confuses you and me and everyone. So let me be a little more specific okay.

So when we look at this chart here on the spy or sorry on the cues down here when we look at the stock chart on the qs, what i want you to pay attention to is right here. You woke up this morning and it was this time of day, and you say to yourself based on what connor has said and just you know he could be wrong right just but just in general, what you've learned in this video and what you are learning is That, based on what connor has said in this video and just in general, that these lines and levels are resistant support in their probabilities, first and foremost, they're probabilities, meaning the market will probably trade to it on the top or to this one on the bottom. It could go further and down to this one, but in general we know that the market will probably trade to one of those prices or one of those levels. On the day, just like the previous day, when the market opened up, it sold down right and bounced back into them, the market will probably trade to that level.

So it did it twice, it opened up, ran to it. Pulled back, went to it again. It went to it two times in the day. If you bought it here and it went down and you lost and didn't buy it again, you got shook, but if you bought it held it then sold you won.

If you wait bought it sold it, you won right. So if you consider them to be probability levels where the markets will just probably trade to them, then you start to see that the market starts to become slightly predictable in ways, because now the market is not so confusing to you right, you're, coming into the mark And go well, i have a level here and a level here. So just from a starting point. I know the market could probably go to there and it could probably go to here.

So now you have two price points on your chart that you now know has a good chance of going to so, instead of now considering, oh well, it might break out it. Might it's either going to go here or it's either going to go there, and if we go below this one, we can go further right, that's kind of where your mind's at so. How do you now come into the market each day, potentially and say to yourself? The market could maybe go to here. Market could maybe go to there and then how do you get a better gauge that the market will go here or it will go there, because, starting the day, you look and go? Okay, probably here probably there then mark it opens.

How do you know well that sounds cocky, but how do you get better at knowing it could be pattern? It could be a moving average. It could be another indicator, it could be volume, it could be a multitude of many different things which, by the way, definitely work. You know uh one way or the other right plenty of things out there, that you could use to gauge an entry and exit that can definitely work for you. Aside from what i'm telling you right now, but another way that can give you more conviction that an indicator can is somebody else saying something for you like the options market like what, if today, you woke up - and you said yourself well, the cues may could probably Go to 391, but they could also probably go to like 385 and maybe take out that level and go to like 386.

Maybe they could go there, they probably could, but i don't know for sure. So how do i get a better gauge that that my probably turns into a will? You could look at options, market data as sort of a secondary scope into the market. So what i mean by that is when we look at the options market. As i said before, these are people making bets and the difference between options, traders and options, people making bets and stock market equities people actually buying shares of stock or etfs.

The difference between the betting style is where it becomes important to understand, see the betting function of buying shares of an etf or a stock. Is you buying and investing in the hopes? It goes higher to make money, but there is there. It doesn't matter how long it takes for the stock to go up to make money. I could buy apple today, wait 10 years for it to go up and still make money, but when it comes to an option, traders bet every single bet in the options market or every single bet that an options trader makes always comes with a timeline or an Expiration date we can buy apple stock hold for 10 years, be wrong for five years still make money.

On the 10th year we buy apple options. We also now pick a timeline in which we need to be correct. By so, let's say, person a buys apple stock. All right he's wrong today, but right tomorrow he wins person b buys an apple option which timeline expiration ends.

Today he does not have the benefit of waiting till tomorrow, like person a who bought the stock, so trader b buys an option expires today. If apple does not reach the price point in which he was betting to by the end of the day, he loses 100 percent of his bet. That is the big difference between the function or the characteristic and betting style at or investing style risk style between an options bet and a stock bet. So that is why using option flow and option data can be exceptionally beneficial to you, even as a stock investor.

In general, because these are individuals - or this is money going into the market - betting with a timeline aspect - that in the event they are incorrect by this time they lose 100 of their money. So i could put 35 000 on apple stock and hold it for 20 years and still never lose all my money. It could go down by 50 percent i'll lose 50 percent of my money, but i could still have 50 percent of my money because it only went down by 50 percent after five years. But if i put down 25 35 grand on an option trade that expires next week and i'm wrong, i lose all of it.

I don't even get to wait around for a couple years to see if it rebounds and i recoup my money. So that is a significant difference between the betting styles and that's why it's so significant. So now that you know why it's significant, you understand what sort of emphasis um you can you know use or sorry or what sort of emphasis this has throughout the day. So now, let's get to the beaten potatoes of it all right.

Let's go back to my chart and let's look at these levels. So our first downside probability level for the day on the market for qqq was 387.46. Next, one down was 385, so i will tell you right now what i would be looking for in the day, based off of this system and based off of the options market in combining the two to either give me conviction for an entry or to give me Conviction to hold, or to have an assumption, it's going to go one way or the other would be to see option flow, which is just option orders coming through, which i'll show you in a bit or to see something that i believe to be unusual or anything. On those option bets those people that are willing to bet their money and lose it all within a specific amount of time i want to see where are they targeting in the market? So, for example, let's say someone in the options market came in today on the qs and they spent 25 million dollars with options expiring today, which again probably wouldn't happen.

Let's just say to make things very clear: let's say somebody came in with 25 million dollars to the qqq roulette table options market. The option expires today, meaning if he's wrong today, it's completely worthless, so this dude comes in and yaps 25 mil and thinks the market's gon na go down by today. Okay, and if he's wrong, he loses all his money. That's a really really really obnoxious and very very very unusual bet for someone to be taking.

Why? Because it's 25 million okay and he will lose all of it today if the market doesn't go down or does not favor the direction of his bet, what person or who in the typically throws 25 million on a bet for the same day, if it's not probably Guaranteed, that's what i'm saying so. What i was saying is, i want to see anything in the market that, to me stands out as unusual or to me is confirming the levels that we already have. So we have levels at 380, 745, here, okay, uh and which actually, i think was like 387 earlier, but anyways, and then we have levels down at like 386, okay um. We also have levels on the queues up to 391.

So let me explain something to you. You could almost visualize this as the playing field for the market today, right or or a better way of doing is like this, like this was the football field? Okay, so this is sort of like what we visualize as the potential basketball court and playing field for the day we could probably go to here. We could probably go to there whatever direction the market picks over this middle line. The market will try to go here or, if it picks direction under this middle line, it will try to go there right, so that's kind of a concept.

So i know that when we look at options, market data all said and done at the end of the day that there's probably strong options, data trying to get the market to 391 and now, since the market for sure, went down, there's definitely strong options. Data suggesting the market moved down to here. So aside from confusing you anymore, let's look at the options, data and now i'm going to piece it together for you really nicely so i have these settings set to a way that i'm not i'm not going to continue on that. Yet i'm going to just do what i got ta do here: okay, so we have qqq huh 200, 000 premium, seven days expiry.

Just let me make sure i got all good excludes out of the money, okay, which it's not coming up. The way i want so maybe i have to that was a spy one. Excuse me, so i had to adjust this to 50. 000..

Okay. So i'm adjusting this to 50 000 and i got to get this back to a. I got adjusted like maybe even 55. 000, so i can get us right at the beginning of the day.

Don't worry about how i'm inputting data right now, that'll confuse you just know that what i'm doing is what we're supposed to be doing. Okay, so i am getting us so that we are right at the start of the day, it is 113 2022, so that we can see the data starting from yesterday to today, so to start the day as soon as the market opened. What is the first bet for the market, 391, 389, 389 and it's bullish within a five day time frame, so i don't want to go too much in the time frames and the timing aspect of it. What i just want you to know is to start the day the markets were targeting 391 to 389 and 389 on the bullish side.

Let's look at our stock chart again, ironically enough, where is our level for the day 391? So for me i already know why at 9 32 in the morning as soon as the market opens, i know exactly why the options market is betting 391, because i have statistical probability levels that suggest the market could probably go to here or probably go to here. Right so at 9, 30 to someone places the bet for 391. Arguably that person lost their their money today, okay, there's so much to it, but but again it doesn't matter so that tar is 381 391 all right. 944, 959.

959. 386. 388. 386..

We'll go a little further up the chain: um, we'll disregard the calls for now. Just just we'll disregard i'm going to confuse you too much, but then we go up again. 10. 24.

10. 24. 10. 24.

10. 24. 10. 29, 385 puts okay.

So we start the day with some call action trying to take the market up. Okay, then, at about 9 40 9 50. We start to get some opposing arguments to the downside. So we started market all bullish.

Everyone's all hippy happy go lucky and then a little bit in the day we get some opposing argument to the bulls or to the bear side, all right disregard these ones, because i want to get to the potatoes again we go to 1023's 10 24 area. Then we start to see even more bearish betting, we'll jump up to 1040s. 10 42s. We get even more bearish betting, all right.

So now, let's look at our chart again and let's look at the queues and where do our? Where are our downside probability targets which again, these move a little bit throughout the day? So, if you watch my early morning market video from today, you will be able to see exactly where these levels were this morning, as opposed to this video. This video is slightly inaccurate in comparison to the one posted this morning. So if you really are a stingy magoo - and you want to know exactly where these price points are, because you don't fully trust what i'm saying - that's completely fine, you can do so by watching today's morning, video. So you will see, though, when we look at the qqq and we go and say: where are our downside probabilities? The first one was here at 387.41, which arguably may have been closer to 388 at the time, then the next ones down would be 386, where the market tried to first initially bounce go back and look at the options: data again at 9, 59, 9, 4.

So 9, 45 to 10 o'clock and at 10 24 we start to get that argument for a bearish move on the market. Given some of the option flow we're seeing so again at 10 o'clock we get 386 388 puts remember the first two downside probabilistic targets for today on the qqq's started just at about 280 or 388 and basically uh 386 to the penny so think about that you're. Starting this morning, pre-market pre-market before market opens. You have upside probabilities, 391 and downside probabilities of 388 and 386.

Arguably 385 too, when the market opens. Your first options. Bet is 391, which and i'll talk about the three i can you guys got me going gon na send rabbit hole, so you have moves up to 391. Then you get the opposing arguments of 386s 385s, all right.

So now, let's look at the time at which these go through 959, 945 and 1024.. What are you seeing at that time? All right would we say: 945 here that guy banked dude short of the top of the market. Okay, what was the other one? Like 10 20s, or something like that, so we'll just first start with the 949. So at 9 49 like right here, some dude is buying.

What did they bought the 388s and they bought 386 puts yeah, so they're buying 388's 386 puts right here and how much do they put in uh, 79 thousand 114, 000 and five thousand. Let's say that that was all the same dude that dude just put in. Let's call it two 235 240 g's whatever something like that, so the dude at uh 950 high of day on the q's rails in a put play bearish play for 200, something k: guess what? Where does the market go? He's targeting? 386? 388 386? Where does the market go before? It first tries to bounce 386, and you already had that level on your chart before the market opened okay, so kind of coming back before we continue. How can you, when the market opens get a better feel, maybe have some more confidence and conviction that the market will trade to one or the other one of your probability levels you could use an indicator.

You could use multiple different indicators to maybe help you. You could also do something like looking at the options market to see what sort of big bets are being placed on the direction of the market and do those bets that are coming through line up with the levels you already have mapped out as confirmation. So a good way of saying this is each day you already expect a market will go to and from some of those levels you may not know which ones you may struggle with the direction. At times you could use options.

Market data, in conjunction with your statistical probability, levels to give your extra conviction: okay, um i mean i really could keep going on, but that is pretty much about it. The last thing that i will mention are like these 388 calls. This is going to get a little more in depth over the beginner's head. If it's not already there, if you're an advanced one, you'll help understand you'll understand this one.

So let's say not. Let's say this is what it is right. So why are we getting 388 calls here right? You know like we said before, we have levels to 391., so why is it at like market open people are buying 388s? Why aren't they buying the out of the monies up to 391? Well, for one not everybody likes to buy out of the money, not everybody wants to buy out of the monies and how about this so instead of the person who so so, how about this? We know that remember, he's buying 388 calls. What is our statistical level here? It was like right about 388.

It's moved down some but 388 right about here. Like that, let me rephrase this. I got ta. I got ta repeat myself: you see this pop in the market right there, this right there that line.

You see that pop pre-market that candle, that's because this gray line that i'm pointing at that gray line was there this morning. That was it. So when the market came up and got through it, it popped. So then we went up and then we dropped below it.

Then we cracked right, so that was right, the 388! So this gray line. Now it was 388 okay. We were there so the reason that you're getting those 388 calls is because we dipped down to that level. To start the day we dipped to 388 too, so dipping to 388 and buying those calls mean, though, that person was buying in the money calls on the 388 support, so he or she or whom that was was not as comfortable trying to target out of the Money today they said it could maybe be a bullish day, we're not so sure so we're not going to go the out of the monies we'll take the in the monies okay and so ironically enough 388 was our trend.

Support 388 is where we get a bunch of in the money, call options to start the day and then 388 ends up being the breakdown. I think that is where i'm going to end today's video. I hope that i have enlightened you to some bit. I hope that helps.

I hope i did not confuse you. I hope i didn't confuse you yeah. Definitely not so i hope you guys liked the video hope you learned something new, please let me know what you think in the comment section below, because i really want to know if this has helped you. If i have hopefully um completely changed the way you might visualize the market um and if i have again, let me know in the comment section below and if there's something that you maybe want more clarification on within this video feel free to.

Let me know in the comment section below can't wait to hear the feedback from you guys, because i did put a lot of effort into this uh took me many attempts to get this video out. So let me know what you guys think in the comment section below and i'll see you in the next one.