Hey everyone meek kevin here, well welcome back to a finally green day in the stock market and welcome back to florida a few things that we got to talk about today. So first the federal reserve bank of st louis published a piece on supply chains and inflation, and one of the things they first told us was that even though commodities have come down from their peak in march, they haven't really retraced as low as we thought they Would that commodities are now sitting at higher levels, obviously, but they're staying at higher levels, and this is a little problematic as the ukraine. Russia disaster continues. But beyond that another issue that you have and it's one that they can consider extreme and to be one of the real causes of inflation, is we can't understate how bad the supply chain issues? Are they mentioned that the producer price index report that we got yesterday is almost all about the supply chain, disaster and nightmare, and i know we're so tired about hearing about supply chains, but it's it kind of at least makes me feel a little bit better.

Knowing this, because when you get through this report, guess what they say - companies after we get through all of this gon na be substantially more efficient that it's really difficult to go from an existing supplier to a new supplier. It takes so long to work with new suppliers and get used to how manufacturers and suppliers work together. It's really difficult and it takes time and that time process is what we're going through. Now it's not like they're trying to make an excuse as to why inflation is high.

It sucks. We got a big problem with inflation right to the point now, where we have models like the sharp indicator that say we are in one of the worst times to own any kind of assets, because you've got a federal reserve. That's like this sucks like we need to get inflation down. We need to fight it, but the problems are.

We have so many underlying fundamental pressures on inflation, especially producer prices in the supply chains that there's almost little. We can do about it other than continuing to essentially hike and hawk right, but we are now literally at the worst time to own assets since 1991, by using a measure of the sharp ratio which kind of balances the s, p, 500 treasuries high, yield, uh and Gold, we're literally the worst place uh in my entire lifetime. You know i was born in 92, which is kind of crazy to think about uh there there is no sharp ratio. That is worse than is now since 1991.

kind of wild to think about. So it's been a pretty disastrous time to own anything. On top of that, you've got uh. You know financial conditions and federal reserve expectations, sort of dot plot and bloomberg was talking about this and without getting into the weeds as to how their dot plot works.

They're. Basically, pointing out that the federal reserve is in probably one of the most aggressive positions or has the most aggressive posture at a time where we've already seen a significant amount of financial tightening and it sort of explains why the sharpe ratio is as disgusting as it Is uh and i mean look, we've all been feeling it right, everybody's upside down on everything, uh and we're. Finally, seeing a little bit of a push back. For example, a firm's earnings call yesterday was absolutely phenomenal.

I mean you've seen a firm yesterday, i think, swung from from bottom to top yesterday, including after hours that freaking stock moved 65. Now i mean it's way down from where it was so. 65 is still like. Who cares right? It's still down uh, but i'll tell you that earnings call was spectacular.

Trade desk earning call spectacular these reports that we're reading from these companies aren't telling us hey we're we're definitely in a recession, although we probably are because of our trade deficit. You know negative trade. Oh negative, uh wholesale inventory uh build up and, and then you know some degree of pullback from the consumer. But beyond that uh i mean look at even disney's earnings call.

People are spending more money like crazy people are spending more money on ads, which i'm surprised by because you saw uber talk about a pullback in ads. You've seen amazon talk about how they overhired, and maybe they got a pause. You see meta talking about a pause, but part of me tries to isolate these things and wonder: like hey. Well, does uber and you know maybe facebook are they having problems uh because they just had bad business models? Uh related to these employees, like it's sort of like with robin hood.

It's like why'd. They lay off nine percent of their staff because well, hey they probably overhired and b wha. What were they doing? You know maybe uh, maybe vlad messed up there right. So what are you seeing? You're actually seeing the 10-year treasure come down a little bit 2.9, but the thing that's really plummeting is the five-year break even we're at 2.95.

Right now we plummeted under three over the last couple days, which is phenomenal because we want those inflation expectations to come down. In addition to that, what did we get today? Well, we got consumer expectations, uh consumer expectations for inflation and sentiment sentiment came came in low. We missed on sentiment. We were supposed to get a read of 64..

We got 59.1 uh, so that was a little bit of a bummer. However folks this is so freaking important. What happened? Consumers expect prices to rise 5.4 over the next year, holding at a four decade high for the third month in a row, in other words, inflation. Even though, for the next year, the expectations are high at 5.4, stable or what's the key word, we like to use anchored right, the other key that you've really got to pay attention to is what happens over the next five to ten years and the expectations for That, but before i can mention the expectations for that, i got ta remind you.

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So what else over the next uh five to ten years, three percent inflation is expected, which folks is unchanged from april, really good, uh, then uh, then we do have issues, though - and this is going to be an issue going forward for crypto after the terra luna Disaster uh and you know sentiment when it comes to momentum and and uh and uh excitement and euphoria over assets that are difficult to value uh. It will come back there. There is a lingering belief that, after the terra luna collapse, which was supposed to be one of one of the greatest projects, a lot of folks have this feeling of like wow. They almost feel backstabbed, somewhat uh by by by crypto and to some degree there.

There are a lot of folks now who are like i, i don't know if i can trust any project now, if, if tara luna can go down like this now, i don't know if that's necessarily true for you or if it should be true for you, uh Personally, i think, there's so many opportunities and great companies to buy right now that it's not necessary to uh. You know to to be like all in let's say on crypto, although i do think up to five percent exposure in your portfolio is okay, hashtag, not financial advice, but uh look realistically uh! You know what this is gon na do right. It's gon na bring out more more regulation, for example janet yellen. Today she told lawmakers what'd.

She say i wouldn't characterize the scale of stable coins as something that are a threat to financial stability today, but they are growing very rapidly and could become a threat to financial stability. So you know this is: what are they going to do? A lot more regulation? Coming to the stable coins, which is what we need, but if it flushes out a lot of the debt, you know how's that going to hit valuation, so these are important things to to think about now: uh, all right ben, i'm i'm doing a one take here. So don't screw up my video. Do you want to say anything follow ben mala by the way if you haven't yet we had a really great podcast yesterday check it out on his channel but ben.

What do you want to tell people before i end this video and if you screw up my video, i'm gon na be pissed. I wan na tell them that they need to watch, meet kevin and go to ben mallow, because we are here to help you that's. Why we're here? That's good! That's good! Thank you! All right! Everybody! You heard it go subscribe to ben mala, thanks for watching we'll see in the next one. Bye,.