Good morning and welcome back to another market, open, live stream looks like today. We've got uh well stocks falling to the downside at least uh. Let's take a peek here, uh we have uh s, p, futures, uh down point one, eight percent and nasdaq futures down point. Seven two percent, so technology really selling off more than anything else, uh it.

It almost seems like you're having this, because rates are spiking again uh. Look at this. You've almost got the 10-year treasury at 1.487, which i remember uh. When rates were about 1.28 1.29.

Michael bury was saying short bonds they're going back to two percent uh. Well now, they're uh up about point two still got some way, uh or so some work to do to get to two percent. But it's going in his direction for what it's worth, that uh may end up, proving to be a good observation, so uh something to keep an eye on uh. But anyway uh you could short treasuries by shorting things like uh, the uh, certain tenure, uh, treasury, uh bond funds or etfs, but anyway uh.

You could type that into youtube. Meet kevin, michael burrish, uh next, big short, something of that effect. You'll see it probably from about a month month and a half ago, but anyway uh, let's uh, let's take a look and see how things are behaving for how the day is starting, so we'll go ahead and grab pre-market here and let's see what we got. So, let's start by uh, looking at uh, some of the red, so we've got on the red side.

Here: lordstown motors iron net canoe uh, some of the uh and emeren some of the momentum again zombs over here psalms, that's nature, gosh! Some i feel like that was a momentum play of of like gosh. I don't know three or four months ago. Let's see here, uh yeah, that's kind of what it looks like over here. It was actually even more momentum play of february march and uh and gosh.

It's just bled out since then: yikes yeah, okay, then uh db. Let's see canadian solar, canadian solar back down to 33.. Look at that comes back to this channel and then just dips right below again. So this is an interesting one to watch why? Why do we see canadian solar going down? Is it potentially because inflation fears again or is it something of the company when resorts down 1.28 cloud flares down docusign's down a bit 135 here, etsy back 220 pallentier, 2824 pinterest, 5364.

apple, twitter, facebook, microsoft! All these guys down about a percent. There was a good article. I can't remember if it was barons or where it was. Maybe it was bloomberg, but uh they were basically talking about how uh uh this uh that you know going forward might be a rough time for the big mega cap tech stocks.

It might be better instead to invest in some of the smaller cap tech stocks. So not in the 1.7 trillion dollar amazon, but instead in something else uh. You know, like i'm just saying this a firm, it's a just below 30 billion dollars. Well, i still think it's expensive at this price, though um did you a good video on that? I thought on friday worth worth watching if you're interested in a firm, the tesla finance, i think, was what the title was.

So, let's see here, speaking of tesla tesla is uh down about a half percent. After releasing the uh enroll button for the full self-driving beta, i've got end phase down to about 153 lemonade back at 69., neo neo's still stuck around that 35 level. That's been interesting, seeing neo just so stuck now. Part of this is, i think, i think, a lot of it is because it's chinese exposure, but let's see here yeah more and more of this sort of sell-off here, uh just in september, it's been a little bit of a rough month in september, but uh interesting.

We've actually got a channel drawn here. I haven't looked at neo much since this channel over here looks like we really did break out of that channel in july, but rotated right back into it pretty quickly. So i wonder if that means we'll we'll bounce off of the lows over here about 34, 28 and chill out. Hmm all right, let's see what's green today, what what is actually green today! So, just not tech see natural gas jumps 6.3 to four dollars and fifty six cents on course, since the highest since 2024 and uh, the european central bank's christine lagarde has every reason to believe that base effect energy inflation, not resulting in lasting inflation, the transitory inflation That just won't go away uh.

So then we've got got some momentum here: uh pushing a little bit naked and camber pushing eight percent and almost seven percent you've got mata, poured up again. Three point: two: eight percent purple five point: five, eight, that kind of came out of nowhere purple was a stock that i thought was really poised for a run. Last time it was 18 about about a year ago. The thing ran up to almost 40 dollars uh.

I did sell my purple position and since then it's kind of been bleeding down uh, let's see matterport yeah, almost almost get back to that 20 range kind of incredible, but um, let's see here there we go okay, perfect, so uh, then we've got uh rocket. Lab 1.99 gevo three, let's see hippo back up a little bit here. One point: eight four percent honey mining is coming up a little bit. Oh, that reminds me how's crypto.

Are we still trading sideways on crypto? Let's see how the weekend went so yeah a little bit on that sideways trade here on crypto you've got uh 43 600 on bitcoin, it's a little bit lower than uh before the whole uh ever grand debacle. So to speak, that um, when that really started affecting the market, uh bitcoin was about 44 8.. Hmm, okay and uh miscellaneous prices. Here in the midst.

Let's go: take a peek and see what uh, what headlines we can find to see why? Why is the market behaving the way? It is so, let's see what we got here, yeah right now we are at just about 0.13 on the dow. It's the only thing green here s p and nasdaq seem to be getting redder all right. Let's take a beat, so, let's see, let's take a peek at what they're saying about the markets as we're opening up here, u.s indices dropped, surrender surrendering earlier gains yeah. I was looking at this last night and uh futures were just wildly up.

All of them too. Uh up maybe point four point: five percent, roughly uh and they've all relatively u-turned from some of their highs as investors assessed whether global growth can withstand a slowdown in china and a global energy crunch contracts. On the s p 500 slipped treasury yields advanced as traders braced for speeches by fed policymakers. This week, the euro slipped as germany looked set for months of complicated coalition talks.

Blank check company, gors, guggenheim climbed in pre-market after the ev maker pollster agreed to merge with it, even as china's evergrand debt crisis. Festers data due this week may show manufacturing recoveries and the world's second largest economy is faltering ooh. We got some numbers coming out this week. Uh we've also got cpi coming up, but not until cpn jobs not until next week.

Let me pull this. Ah, let's take a peek here. So jobs, i believe, is the 8th and cpi the 13th yeah. So the 8th would be not this week, but next week friday, then inflation would be the week after that wednesday.

So it's gon na be a bit before we get those numbers we'll have other numbers to play in the meantime, then, when we get into october we'll be back into earnings season again too, which is so weird because i feel like we never really got a break From earning season, it's odd by the way, if you're in uh the course member discord check out the stock chat i'll be in there and uh i'll be watching. If you have uh any commentary, you want to leave there. Most bad news comes from china these days. It's kind of worth noting a senior analyst at the swiss quote group holdings.

All right breaking out. Treasury yields gain momentum, yeah no kidding there. You go here's your potential breakout oops! There we go yeah, that's a nice move to the upside sharper somewhere around here. That's where that article was on michael bury, so i don't know if he's written it down his short to the downside for a bit but uh, it's come up euros slipped against the dollar.

Okay, german and flag: okay, yeah germany, they they've got a. They have a fun thing of when, when they complete an election, they have a lot of negotiating to do to figure out the balance of power in the country. It's quite different from what we have in the united states. That's because they have a uh multi-party government and then so you have uh, maybe four to six very popular parties, probably more like four or five now, and then they join up to combine their votes to create coalition governments.

So uh that way they can get things done as opposed to having gridlock like we have in a two-party system. It's worth noting that the two-party system is known for gridlock. All right, see: here's some events to watch powell and yellen to testify at a senate banking. Here here at a committee hearing tuesday uh christine le god speaks tuesday, japan's ruling party votes to elect a leader.

I don't know japan has really fallen out of the conversation uh. It's it's crazy. How uh japan has is really - and you see that in the japanese stock market too, just uh always riding below the 1990s, pretty incredible what we've been through and to still be below the 90s yeah all right. What else evergrand fallout spreads beyond markets to wealthy investors? Oh, to whom rich trust buyers in seventy thousand join seventy thousand retail investors who suffered losses and are demanding their money back huh.

Tens of thousands of chinese households who bought high-yield investments risked being sucked into specula. The speculative unraveling of evergrand speculative unraveling police officers contend with a crowd gathered near evergren's headquarters. It would be so interesting to go there right now. I mean i like just travel to china to go, see the uh the drama out folding in person.

It's easy to look at the uh, the stock charts, but it's a lot more dramatic. I feel like to uh see it in person. Let's see how uh how it's doing right now. Ah, it's gon na go try to go to that website.

Somebody bought that domain. I love it all right. Let's try this and one more three. It's actually up eight point: five percent today at two uh two dollars and fifty five cents uh for what it's worth.

It is down. Eighty four point: five: five percent on the year: that's ever grand! Let's look at their ev sector also up three point: two three percent, and also for what it's worth down: 49 percent, not as bad wow, all right. What else disaster tourism? That's right! You're! It's like schadenfreude right! Exactly disaster tourism nailed it. Oh man, instagram is pausing work on kids site after controversy yeah after the wall street journal expose expose yes, mm-hmm.

How are coveted cases, especially the united kingdom. The reason i say united kingdom is because they had a fall and then they had a resurgence. Well, let's start there, united kingdom, all right yeah, look at this. Look at that shaky chart, see that you know, and everybody saw that first fall.

It was like that said it's over, but then it's up and down that's a mess messy chart. It makes me wonder how things are actually going to be this winter, that this winter is going to be really interesting. Uh us just mostly been straight down here, that's good or or curving down. I guess you wouldn't necessarily say straight down: um curving down all right.

What are they complaining about over here? Let's take a listen, i want to say that uh. It is entirely possible to look at these guys in a different way. Facebook. Now we, i talked to mark benioff last week and obviously uh here's a point of view.

He has a distinct point of view and it's quite uh quite negative when it comes to facebook in a conference that i'm giving this week, and i don't think it's going to change the view of off of this. No. But i think that this is a very big change and why carl it's a very big change, because i mean they've said that they're ahead on child protection, they have often said that they're ahead, that they've that they have detected millions of attacks on children and for Them to do this uh i want to i credit them now. I know uh, you take your.

If you're a journalist, it is usual that you never credit facebook with anything uh. I still think that benioff raises good points about power versus truth. That's what benioc keeps talking about that? It's not a single source of truth and that they're willing to put in a lot of things that are missed, that are really misinformation about vaccines about the illness, but i i'm vivid, i thought this was good. Do you think it has anything to do with advertisers? Actually, speaking up and saying, we have real concerns about placement.

I i think that they want to eliminate that as an objection. They want to be all right. I'm going to pull off this here. Take a look at this: here's a uh.

What history says, a shutdown means this is from barons, love that about parents, uh all right. So when i love the look at that foggy sash gloomy picture of uh the capital here, very cool, all right. The white house still gosh, you know the the zoom on uh safari is always pretty funny here, all right there we go. I think it's ads that just like pop on and off anyway white house told federal agencies to prepare for a shutdown next week.

If congress fails to come to an agreement over funding, cautious market isn't out of the ordinary before a potential government shutdown, but those shutdowns haven't left much of a dent either it's normal for the market to take a breather and be a little bit more nervous ahead Of a shutdown right, remember, anytime, you have uncertainty, you lead to more pain in markets and uh. This this is something to consider is uh. You know a couple weeks ago i was talking about look at the uncertainty catalysts. We have federal reserve.

Are they going to taper or not they didn't they delayed their taper, but gave us a schedule for taper. Then we have the evergreen crisis. How bad is it really going to be? The expectation was that it would kind of blow over over uh the next couple weeks to uh to four weeks inc kind of has i mean i feel like people's peak fear. Around evergrand is well behind us now.

It'll be germany elections and the united states government shutdown. I expect both of those to get resolved within the next two and a half weeks, so uh it'll be fascinating to see uh, some of those pain, catalysts removed from markets and then what you know if, if we get our government funded, what what other negative catalysts Are there to keep the market down? No there's always something, but it's usually the confluence of larger negative catalysts that lead to the market. Going down. House democrats approved a bill wednesday that would simultaneously fund the government through december 3rd and suspend the debt limit, but obviously the senate didn't pass that and now we're waiting on how democrats are going to solve this issue in the 14 shutdowns since 1980, the s p.

500 posted a median return of negative point: one percent the day the budget was set to expire 0.1 percent during the shutdown and 0.3 on the day the shutdown was resolved. Oh my gosh uh look at this history during past government shutdowns days, length see with the ex look at that trump had the longest shutdown uh yeah uh trump was at 34 days, but look at the performance during the shutdown 10 increase. That's funny. Oh wow, uh obama had a 16 day shutdown, 3 percent uh recovery there, but uh really seems like in the more the 70s shutdowns you had uh.

You had losses during shutdowns 3.4 percent, 3.19. 1.324, all you're in the 70s huh. I don't. I don't like relating to the 70s, because that's when you had some mega inflation do cause.

I'd prefer not to compare ourselves to the 1970s. Oh well separate dow analysis found that during the days of the last four government shutdowns, that lasted more than five days, the s p 500 made gains most recent shutdown of 35 days. The s p rose 10 yeah. That was crazy, crazy times once the shutdown is resolved.

The bigger picture was the yeah in place before and is on when will be on in place afterwards and become the driver, the bigger picture eh all right, um shut it down for 365, stop uh time in hand, no matter what all right, so stocks are rising. As oil and search well, i don't know about that. The red this morning, you got to update your page there. Baron see.

Look at that. Dow is only at point. One percent s p futures are down point two: seven, the nasdaq's down point eight nasdaq's getting worse. It's getting worse, i say hey, but who wouldn't love a deal on the nas or on um on some of the big mega caps.

I don't know. I personally would love it to see. Uh apple amazon, google suffer a little bit just so i go shopping for them again, get some opportunity into those companies again: monday.com 1.37. What's the valuation on that company now, look at that monday.com stock is 16 billion bucks wow! That's incredible! Just you know some of the valuations feel so high for for what they are um.

That's that's not a dis on you know, um monday.com, but just think think about it. You know you put together an app to help. You uh set up your your uh, your your tasks and calendar coordinations, and things like that 16 billion dollars again not trying to minimize it. You know, i know, there's a lot that goes into it, but that's essentially what we got here is an organizing, app and and team collaboration.

App and again, i know there's more to it, but wow 16 billion dollars yeah all right play the buy the dip song right. Are you sitting on cash? Looking for a buy-in? Are you giving up on a dip? Well, i'm still sitting on a substantial amount of cash more than i ever have before and uh you know, i'm i'm willing! Look. I i like being exposed to the market more than i like having cash. I've got some taxes coming due on the 15th of next month and uh if it weren't for that, i'd probably have a lot less, but i wouldn't.

This is not the kind of market that i'd be going margin into. I'd, still be keeping something on the sidelines. Like probably at least five percent on the sidelines, uh five to ten percent and if i expanded that to rcc it'd be a lot larger like. Even though i think real estate market has headwinds.

And you can watch my video on how much the headwinds are type into youtube meet kevin, how much the real estate and housing market will crash, something like that and uh. It really goes through our our downside risk. In my opinion, it could be worse. There could be obviously some form of other contagion, obviously who knows but uh, but i really go through the the potential risks that i see and they're really not that bad over the next three years.

You know what maybe prices could come down? Six seven percent. That's not gon na stop me from buying, especially if i buy wedge deals like who cares. If i get a place for five hundred seventy thousand dollars and it's worth seven, twenty five, you know five and even after i fixed it up still 575 divided by 725. That's that's me getting it for 20 20 cents below market right uh and even after i fix the thing up.

Six. Let's do 625 that'd be about 14, so you know i feel insulated uh in in the real estate market, and you don't want to get over confident, but real estate's always been a space that uh that i feel like hey. If you can get stuff under market value, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy uh, and i am still interested in that. In fact, not only am i finally with my closing one of my first most more recent escrows tentatively.

Tomorrow is what i'm told now got delayed a week uh, but i've opened escrow on at least one more and i'm considering opening up on a third. So i might be an escrow on three properties tomorrow, which we crazy um, because things have gotten a little pricey. But uh yeah it is, i think, it's a testament to sort of that diversification uh so yeah anyway, uh lucid motors 25.83 worth noting that uh. We did a poll here a while ago, and actually it was last week and uh most folks believed in the poll that lucid wasn't going to deliver cars until six months out, and the next largest group believe that the cars might really be delivered within the next.

Four to six months, it was somewhere around. Sixty percent of you believe that and uh the the actual uh forecast by lucid itself is actually two to four months, but a smaller percentage of everyone uh watching thought that so i thought that was um fascinating. That uh lucid, appears to potentially be on on par for delivering a head of of what expectations are, which, if the broader market feels that way as well, it could be good for lucid stock. You know people the stock market likes being proven wrong.

Uh in a positive way right, beating expectations, so uh squares down at 258 squares just been kind of losing a couple percent over and over and over again, redfin ran on friday 4.57. For, like no reason, and now it's bleeding down 1.39. I thought that was interesting too. Let's see okay, so over here supply chain, narrative, yeah! You get this a lot.

Let's take a peek at bloom here, yeah. We do have the market open in about a minute, but i want to see here. Oh look at this. This is interesting orders for us business equipment rise for the sixth straight month, orders placed with u.s manufacturers for business equipment strengthened in uggs.

I really think if you're a company this recession has made, you just want to invest more and more into efficiency. Yeah, two to four months out off of mid-september, yes, has made: you want to invest more in efficiency, better machinery, better, more efficient employees and, if you think about it, this is something we talked about back in march of 2020, where, like this is going to be Companies opportunity to weed out basically the people who aren't as efficient - and that sounds horrible, but it was. It was a big opportunity for for companies to just lay off a bunch of people and only rehire the most efficient ones. All right.

Let's get the opening bell by the end of the year, but dr gottlieb was also on the board of pfizer was very positive on the vaccine. I have dr valley, why does jim cramer sound funny right there during the belt and president trump there you go. Look at that it's about a 50 50 market there, all right the fed always takes away what it's given, what it giveth all right, let's see how we're doing here. So what do we got moving here at the beginning of the day, let's start with uh, with a little peek at amc.

Look at that got a green candle. I, like green candle, sticks when you're in tesla tesla green candling. The green's coming back, uh you've got uh robin hood uh coming up. Look at the dips, just don't last folks lemonade lemonade screen.

Let's try a firm, i believe, they're red this morning. Oh firm's running again: let's go the red is going away. Wow pray, the red away uh, and it worked. Oh, my gosh.

This see it's just so i'm saying this. This is why, like again, i don't want to be in in margin, but you just don't want to be too overly cash uh, because it's just everything just gets bought in this market and it's nuts cloudflare cloudflare's going down uh how's that one been performing by the Way, let's get the day chart oh yeah, just to the moon right now at the moon uh. What do you do when you're at the moon yeah? We were trying to figure that out in the buy the dip video too uh yeah yeah uh cardano how's. This moving up on the open here not really doing anything.

Okay, it's like the dog poke. The dog, etsy um etsy, a little mix, yeah red right at the beginning. Here, whoa peloton, plummeting down at 66 90.66 yeah for what it's worth. That's uh, gosh man.

You know i really like peloton, but i just don't own any of it anymore. I couldn't do it, the the fundies changed and you know what i get heat for that and you know so i get uh. I get the comments, the people that you know, don't don't watch the content, all the time uh and then they pop in and out and just what you sold paluton. You said you like patent well, yeah, it's when fundamentals, change, you'd be stupid, not to change with them so yeah.

Unfortunately, they they changed for the weaker on on peloton um, okay, docusign, i'm liking. That docusign is coming down. By the way, i would love to see. Uh docusign back under 200..

That would be amazing, um, okay, so uh all right. Okay, let me take a peek over here for a second i bought with bitcoin that i told my wife. I said you know what we're going to show foil close enough neutral. Well, it's where it all started: pennsylvania, yeah, but that was wes.

Oh you read the rockefeller. I did okay they're just talking gibberish again, i'm gon na do a quick login into here. The um bloomberg terminal. End phase! Oh good! I see this talk about.

Okay, sorry, this is the first time i that's not really a word. Okay, i'm always i'm always nervous. If i get a word on the terminal, this isn't a word right, uh tay, it just says: tay fo. Now you can't really see it tay five! That's not a word right, i don't think so uh, because because the last time i got a word, it was pray and that was uh on february 19th and then the market subsequently sold off for three months, uh after saying, pray, okay, that that is creepy.

So now, when i see a word, i get nervous uh i own peloton. I am in denial, just as i'm about wow. Don't get me wrong. I i i it's a great company.

I don't think you could go wrong with peloton in the long term. I just want to say that, but do i think they're gon na be uh uh? You know headwinds yeah um. I do and i'm sure you're, fine, helen, um, okay, so look at canoe. Canoe got the whole wall street and then i want to look at end.

Face too, i don't forget about that, because that one i will buy the dip on a lot uh we'll talk about in face a second uh canoe: here's one, oh yeah, okay! So the nice sell-off here, you probably got the the traders getting out of this one right now, because it had a momentum pop up and and remember what i've mentioned, which i think is. So it's it's just an observation and it could change at any point. But something i'm noticing is that the momentum trades are lasting, shorter and shorter and shorter they're not doing the the game. Stop uh amc, we're gon na run for three or four weeks straight that the momentum phase is over.

You've got a very impatient, uh clientele right now, uh. This is good like and and look i love end phase. I keep spending money on this stock, but i love being able to get end phase lower and people say like kevin. Why, like what? Why would you want that? What what what does it have coming for it? Okay, well, here's what it has coming for it once we get our supply chain shortages, cleaned up, we're already expecting the inverter sales to double to triple.

All we need are the chipsets, the sales are there, the customers are there and so to me, this is just some one, and not only is it a high quality company with really high margins, uh, also playing in the battery space battery and home solar inverters, and They don't do the solar panels, they're the uh they're, the high margin portion uh. You know even plans for like virtual power grids once they connect most of these batteries. They are um, there's something that will suffer the more. We expect the supply chain, shortages, uh and and inflation fears to uh to last it'll suffer.

But to me it's going to be that golden by the dead, and it's going to be painful by anytime. You got to believe in that one and if you don't don't own it don't matter to me uh i got. I got the diamond hand cup. You know uh all right, so wayfair wayfair popping off again: 281 cheesecake, hey.

I went to cheesecake uh, not that long ago, like a couple days ago, is this weekend at some point i went to cheesecake. It was good. I don't know why. I'm even saying that, actually, for the first time ever, i got the lunch portion of the salmon.

It wasn't that hungry. Usually, i always get the dinner portion no matter what, what day it is or what time it is. Uh all right, amc popped up a little bit coming back down a little bit. Let's look at tesla, let's see here, oh, what is this tesla one negative look at that tesla ran up to 778 and uh, and and now it's uh slightly negative how's.

How are the big ones doing here? Google, oh yeah, look at google head back to the negative side, lemonade back to the negative side, corsair that one will never catch a break. Uh win wind's trying to come back up, but it's still sitting negative uh disney going back down how weird it's like there was some by the dip right at the beginning, and now it's coming back down. Wait now, tesla's green again! Look at that! Tesla back up to 779., my goodness this is like the most uh bizarro uh market here, obstacle for end phases, cost of materials going up unless they raise prices which may deter customers from paying up. Uh facts: uh, yes, yes, uh, yeah, passing along costs to consumers is is true.

Uh doesn't end face, compete with tesla uh, yes, but uh in the inverter market. Yes uh in the solar market. I think uh. That was more of an issue when tesla still had a subscription service and i'd rather have both competitors like i'd rather have both top players in in the space uh yeah, i think, trying to get a firm to dip.

It has been painful as well. I'd love to keep adding to a firm. I i struggle to add when it's green. I really need a good good catalyst here, good juju! Oh look at wayfair really exploding going back to 300.

It does it over and over again uh it. It falls down to the 260s and back to 300.. I've been saying it all summer, and it literally does it over and over and over again that's such a fun train. Look at carnival dang it uh uh.

I've been wanting to diversify into the rico's, but i just don't it's: okay, i'm i'm all right with it. Uh i'll i'll, just i'll just watch but anyway carnival up 4.66 they've got over half of their ships sailing again uh delta's falling down uh. You know, let's see here, somebody writes in the discord. Piton's entry price for new consumers is too expensive when you consider needing a bike or treadmill to get the subscription i'd.

Imagine they'll need to develop cheaper and newer products to get to a path to subscriptions to be a little easier yeah. You know what does excite me a lot uh in um? What's it called um, i'm trying to okay? What i'm trying to convey here with peloton is they're going to come out with strength, training machines at some point here, uh, both in gyms and probably in residential. I think that's going to be a pretty nice catalyst because remember they acquired pre-core, which was a really good uh. You know, buy a really really good, buy uh, just type in into google pre-core p-r-e-c-o-r-e pre-integra one word and uh pre-core.

Is that really high quality gym manufacturer? I think they got them for a steal. They paid 400 something million dollars for pre-core, and you know, peloton's market cap is insane relative to that piton stock. What is it it's 27 billion dollars? I mean their capacity for acquisitions and that particular acquisition. That was a good one.

That was a good one. I don't think enphase is going to partner with a firm uh because of of the way that uh that company is structured, they sell their products to dealers, and then the dealers provide financing, so yeah 20 billion dollars. For me for for end face for me, is it's not a valuation concern, i'm not not worried about it at all. Um.

I see the comments here. Is why not saying so yeah it's it's fine. It is entirely possible that buy now pay later may be saturated in australia, and i think it's fair for you to ask the question. It comes down to merchant partnerships here in america uh, and it's something that you know when, when a firm was partnered with target on most products over fifty dollars, when a firm is product, although you have zazzle as well, when a firm is going to be, at Least, for the time being, the exclusive buy now pay later partnership for amazon.

It's the now the layaway program for in-store uh sales at walmart, which in-store sales, in my opinion, is much more important than than online at walmart, because walmart does a fraction. Well, it does about a third or whatever what amazon does per quarter, but which is still good. I mean they're on online as well with the firm, but even stubhub right, i mean all so many of these other things. Somebody sent this out a message to me.

I don't know if this is true, that rolex is doing pay with a firm which is brilliant, but really it says, merchant relations and, in my opinion, i'm excited about seeing walmart potentially bridge the firm gap to get a firm for in-store sales, see what you really Want is you want somebody to be able to go up to a checkout line and go hey. You know i want this tv or whatever i saw there was a sticker. That said, i could buy now pay later for this. I could pay.

You know a quarter right now and pay the rest over six months. I want that and it's actually a firm that people are signing up for in a firm makes this a lot more streamlined that a lot of companies like there are a lot of other buy. Now paid leader companies where you have to apply for a card first, you get like a virtual credit card, and then you enter those details. Uh you know.

If firms really figured out how to make the streamline now, don't get me wrong? Is there going to be competition, absolutely uh there always will be. I would expect nothing less, but it's the partnerships that create the moat for a firm either. Is there a limit to that probably um, but we'll see all right so uh? Let's see i'm just looking at some of the other comments you have. These are good questions a pound here coming to the most recent support line, yeah clark does way better uh karma's.

The best okay gym equipment has a long lifespan. It's rarely renewed rogue does one of the best racks, techno gym, makes pretty mainstream cable machines, never heard about payton's new acquisition, fair uh yeah, it's it's because pre-core mostly sold to uh hotels and gyms uh anyway. So uh, let's see glad people have their priorities. I'm curious to see that i don't know, can you buy a rolex from the rolex website? I don't know if you can uh, let's see here.

I don't know that you can. But then again what do i know? I mean that that would be interesting. No, they just brochures models. I don't know, i don't know anything about watches hundred dollars, rolex um, oh yeah, cut, hair and check that yeah all right.

Whatever so watch contact a retailer, so you'd have to contact a retailer. This makes sense: you'd go through some sort of sales agent. All right, you have to go to a dealer. Yes, that makes sense.

Carnivals kick in, but today, folks, absolutely destroying. Today, as uh, the recoveries take off carnival macy's. Here we go uh norwegian cruise line spirit. It's the way of the recoveries uh, let's see here, yes, in terms of a longer term hold on a firm okay smile directs up a bit lucid 3.45.

What else we have here and then we'll look at some other headlines win resorts 1.2, say: hey win, went positive good. We were talking about theta decay on that one last week, all right. Let's look at the downside a little bit more. Let's see here, donkey sign, uh, oh hippo went back to about what 4.8 peloton 90 trade desk uh end phase back over 150.

I missed the 148 dip. Google google's down a chunk here. Actually, where is it? Oh matterport went down as well metaport 1.35 yeah. That was up like three percent.

That's a weird swing google's down about 1.26 rough day for the big caps matterport how's it doing on the minute. Here, oh yeah, it just kind of evaporated, opened up three percent up wayfair nice wayfarer, move yeah good good moves on recovery makes you wonder how the recovery is going to last uh. I think really, unless there's like another delta fear that comes up during the winter, which i think is possible, i think recovery has is, could be on a nice trajectory uh. You are seeing more vaccinations, but we also saw a lot of the pain in the uh sun belt states where, during the summer, it was more enticing to go inside in air-conditioned areas and covert cloud areas curious to see how cases are going to go.

When we get into the cooler months - probably starting about 30 days from now, so maybe that could be a negative catalyst come around mid-november for recovery stocks uh, something i would be watchful of at least okay. Let's go ahead and look at see. If there's some headlines, let's close some tabs here too many tabs - i don't like tabs all right: uh, dow ray okay, dow's up 100 yeah, look at that. The dow is moving to the upside, so the dow actually went up now point six, four percent, the smp's down point two two and the nasdaq technologies.

That's the one! That's getting hit down point! Nine five you've also got the russell 2000 smaller cap here, uh up 0.34, the ten year uh ten years. At one point, four eight got ta refinance before those those yields go skyrocketing. I got got to time those refinances anyway. I told someone the other day at a wedding.

I was like, ah make sure to refinance. You know, now's the time to get those low rates and he's like. I already have three times like. Oh my gosh, that's not what i was expecting.

Yeah yeah yeah all right. So what else we got here all right, pelosi's democrats head for showdown yeah. We know we know yeah that'd be interesting. They are delaying the vote worth mentioning uh.

Delaying that vote. It's supposed to be today all right cdc. What dire straits cdc director warns of dire straits in delta hit areas of united states? Okay, like which spread of delta forces some states to rash in medical care, which areas are we talking about? Idaho among the least vaccinated states in alaska have said that hospitals can begin to ration medical care if needed. This is what i'm worried about is is the let me look.

I want to look at the weather yeah it's starting to get cooler um yeah 65. Well, that's actually, nice 70s. Is nice, no you're, not really there at the cool. Yet, let's see here new york, city yeah, i mean you're, getting cooler, you're, definitely cooling down, but you're, not cold, yet you're, actually not a nice temperature right now, all right, um, colder descent.

Okay, let's see yeah, we got ta have a good halloween this year. It's the last thing we want is a bad halloween for kids, all right so live covet. 19 detector, like a fire alarm check out bio cloud from control tech. That's cool! That's smart! That's very smart! I love it! Well! I guess, like you know, hey i mean i get carbon monoxide detectors.

Yeah smoke detectors. Why not have coven detectors? I i personally, i think, that's brilliant all right what else? Hmm all right: let's go to the wall street journal and maybe the ft facebook pawns is instagram for kids yeah. Of course, well, street journal puts that on the front, it's probably after their big exposed as to why tumultuous week for congress, yup housing, affordability concerns rise worldwide, yeah, it's gone, nuts real estate has gone nuts all right. What do we got over here? Markets? Commodity boom is too much of a good thing for many traders, blackstone's selling, vegas casino, firm's, most profitable property deal, which one are they selling not that it really matters.

But it's kind of interesting blackstone reached an agreement to sell the cosmopolitan for 5.65 billion wow. That's crazy, uh. The deal separates ownership from the management on hotel operations which are being sold to mgm resorts for 1.6 billion wow big moves there wall street, making money all right financial times. Let's see what we got over here kevin here in miami, if you don't put 25 percent down on condos, banks won't approve the loan, because the hoa ki pass inspection is that just here, does it happen? Um i mean i haven't heard that i've heard.

I mean, if you can, if you can live in a property out here, you can still get in the fha has to be. The properties have to be approved, though uh. If they could have to be va. If they're va approved, you can get it with zero percent down.

If they're fha approved, you can go in with three and a half percent down uh, and then there are uh. There is an underwriting of the hoas to make sure they're well capitalized enough, uh and so yeah. It's possible that if, if the hoas just aren't capitalized well enough that that those requirements could change, yeah schultz and the social democrats win tight german election - oh yeah, oh the left of center social democrats won a narrow victory in germany's election as support for the center-right Cdu christian democratic union of outgoing chancellor angela marco, plunged to a historic, low wow, that's a big move. You know, she's been she's been in for what was it like 15 years as chancellor 15 16 years or something like that's crazy, no term limits.

So if you ever want to be in power forever you you could try to run to be chancellor of germany. You actually do own land on condos, you just own an undivided uh interest in uh in the land. So if there are 60 units you own 1, 60th of the land, 16 years, yeah wow tesla falling and end phase recovering interesting, uh, they're, calling merkel center right, actually, surprisingly, yeah they they are. But i think that uh some of this could be with social values too.

So uh, not just um. You know market values, but anyway uh. Let's see here, um, okay, i i mean i don't know that we care too much about the details of of how they uh fared spd. Wow, 25.7.

Okay, yeah, look at that. So you've got one two three, four five: six parties, uh five main ones. I i like how left is a party it's just literally ah lynx, uh? Okay, even though that's kind of what the the i think, what is it? The so what's sbd social, something we just saw the social dems? Oh okay! Well, i wonder what is it? Well? It's probably german translation, that's probably what it is: okay, germany, social democratic party of germany, okay, so the letters just don't line up, because it's probably the way it's in written in german is my guess. So, oh look at that.

Uh see it's because social democrat is one word: social democratish, a party deutschland deutschlands deutschlands social democratic party, deutschlanders. Whatever i can't say it, that's crazy spd! That's some! Some big old words all right! Where were we so? Oh look at metamaterials coming out of nowhere with an 8.6 bump on the momentum chivo coming up out of nowhere with a 7.26 carnival is now at 6.26 and lucid's up 5.15. Nice moves uh, that's incredible! Make google say it: yeah uh naked camber, macy's. Okay! Oh look at a firm.

Oh my gosh. Stop stop uniform uh, that's cray! Cray! All right! Looking at the downside, yeah canoe, the traders are pat, the traders have packed their bags and they're back out. You know i canoe would have been smart to raise money. I said it i said it take advantage.

Man take advantage, they're, gon na trade, your stock up, dilute and raise some money. Uh. That's awesome! Uh thanks nick uh, i own some meta material shares on robin hood and can no longer access them. Ouch.

Your lucid puts should be printing, attendees, yes, sold puts sold, puts should be uh. I do wonder how they are. Let's see okay, so let's see here swordputs, i don't know it's taking forever to load again there we go my phone's a little slower right now, i'm not on wi-fi. Well, whatever oh look.

Dutch bros coming down. Dutch bro is down about almost four percent here. Donkey signed 3.26 to the downside, interesting uh, huh, all right still, waiting for uh we're gon na watch docusign go down to 200 again. Aren't we maybe okay, yeah firm! Those are some attendees.

Let's see here, amc where is talent here? No sorry, not pound. Here, lucid, lucid lcd, oh yeah elsa puts up 42 percent nice. That's a nice one, all right where else yeah how low is piton going to go we're at 89.? Is it going to go back down to 79.? Okay, there's going to be a point where, where piton gets juicy again, uh nvidia is still dropping when to buy the dip. I don't know uh, that's a good one.

I i like nvidia, if you would have gotten that leap on a firm instead of sold. Put well, i had i had a very juicy uh leap on or not leap. I had a very juicy uh shorter term call option on a firm that printed very nicely, but yeah um. You know, let's see what else we got uh, i'm i'm just longer term.

Theta decay, i think this market's going more less and more to the less volatile direction. Not i'm not interested i'd, rather i'd rather buy more shares. That's the way. I do it because look with a leap you're at what sometimes i think we calculated this is like 2.2 x leverage, uh i'd rather buy 2.2 times as many shares.

That's just what i'd rather do right now, uh. This is that volatility, clients and markets, and who knows maybe it'll come back up again, but i don't believe it'll. I think we're going to decline in volatility potentially even lower than 19 levels, just with the trajectory of it on our komodo, coming back a little dave and busters mgm how's dave, buster's doing 42.69 nice all right. Let's go ahead and uh see what other news there is.

Okay, let's go to the top page here. Ft same thoughts on hippo still got my shares. Yeah, let's see yeah. I thought that was interesting about that retirement steve, it doesn't seem.

I i think the the kidney thing is an excuse. I i and i'm not trying to be insensitive to to the health issues, but i think it's an excuse. Uh hold on a sec market here and the impact of higher yields. You point out: we did get that five percent drop on an intraday basis, uh high to low, but um there's a lot more churn on the individual stock basis.

I agreed, and i want to point out that differential as you point out between the dow and and the nasdaq is 150 basis point a percent and a half. That's a lot for one day, as you know, that rotation is vicious and i think it points to your your question. We're going to get some chop here. I'd be shocked.

We're going to get some chop yeah somebody's asking if i noticed the dow's up. Yes, uh! No, i mean i, i love that your name's, your mom uh, i i i would just be careful, that's that's all i would say uh, you know i don't. I don't think that uh leaps or i actually think that having less money to invest is actually another reason to be uh, careful of leaps. I i think the the thing you know a lot of people who get into options.

Their analysis is well. If i get a lot of you know long equity elite, basically uh. If i get this for january of let's say 2024, there's no way the stock's going to be selling for less than it is today. That may be true and you might still lose money on a leap, because if because there are multiple factors that go into option, pricing volatility being one of them and if volatility heads down uh, you could literally be up in the stock price and down in your Option uh, if you are gon na, do it, i would recommend uh go in the money, pay a little extra to go in the money, but no, i i don't think my advice is just catered to to a certain income.

I would i would be more cautious with options. I'd be more interested in selling puts uh as as uh. You know a risk mitigation strategy, but uh hey. You know what balance for everything, but i certainly wouldn't make you my entire portfolio um, especially on on some of the tech stocks.

I think that depends too is is which which company you're looking at like. In my opinion, a stock like tesla is going to over time be much less volatile as the company really matures. So, for example, if i go out five years on volatility for tesla see if i can get a chart up here - oh yeah, okay, so tesla's volatility. So this is a screenshot which uh bloomberg says i can share little screenshots brief screenshots, but anyway, uh you see, tesla was very, not volatile.

Back in, like the 16 to 18 range became insanely volatile going into this pandemic here and uh it's it's kind of bleeding. Back to a lower state than uh than potentially where it was back back in time over here. These are some of the low points, though so it makes much more sense to get a leap over here, but look even if you bought a leap over here, you were still bleeding so makes you wonder how low can you go? That's uh! That's the big question. So all right, let's go back over here, all right, so camber, meta - nordic gevo, these guys running carnival's still moving.

It's so smile direct. All of a sudden smile, direct up 6.4 carnival cruise lines just fire today, good job carnival, nice nice moves here. Oh, but look at a firm also still going to the moon. I love it.

Uh lucid, really. Nice moves here, very, very, very nice. Okay, let's see here, uh, okay, winds taking off! Let's see here, we we saw that about wind. Somebody thinks tesla's gon na break 800 win.

Oh yeah, nice, nice move there on win, that's good about a bunch of nvidia. This morning i got a notice saying nancy pelosi bought nvidia. She hasn't done me wrong. Oh i love it.

I love it. Was there? A disclosure disclosure or something that uh that that she bought more or something that'd, be interesting, uh all right. What else do we have here charge point holders, holdings yeah, charge points. One i've been watching um charge points up, 2.2 percent right now, hey popping off that 20 bucks; ah, ah interesting.

It's exciting uh camber just shot up to about 20 wow lots of movement here, downside, uh, cloudflare, canoe pound here, getting some discounts on some tech over here, nvidia 2.9 percent down yeah. That's where you're getting the discounts now check some of it at least yeah. There's matt: i poured down a little bit where is tesla tesla tesla about breakeven um, firm, 4.51, great, all right, let's uh! Let's take a listen in over here. Let's see would be good all right.

Let's i want to listen to this just for a moment, a 30-year bond at a 14 coupon and you couldn't give them away. So here we have the 10-year now, at about a 150 yield, it's going to three or four percent over the course of the next. Several years and that's going to be deleterious to the high-tech industry, and i think you're, seeing something very important today as we're as we're separating what's going on in the real economy as what as what's going on in the high-tech industry, i think this is going to Continue uh, i i don't see how you can get an across-the-board rally and some of our guests have been saying: yeah we're going up across the board a melt up in the summer. That kind of thing i don't see how you can do that.

With this backdrop of rising interest rates, hell weak in congress and all the uncertainty around it, i just don't see a melt up at this point. I don't think you do either. No, i really don't i i i trade only for my own account and i only have about thirty percent of what i own in equities, sixty something or seventy percent is in cash and i'm going to stay that way for a while. All i basically own are sixty to seventy percent in cash.

My gosh, that's a very esoteric very uh drop it on your foot in a hurt type industries. I'll oppose i'll, be opposed to owning a high tech for a long period of time coming forward. As long as interest rates go up, there are periods of time in history when interest rates go higher and stocks go higher, but it is a rare circumstance indeed got it. I got it got it thanks very much indeed dennis all good stuff we're watching those interest rates.

Believe me all through the show, guaranteed, come back in again lauren, please uh, let's go to oil because it's got to be up this morning. Well, prices are up five days in a row, so look at that yeah back above 75., so the two stocks leading the s p 500 are occidental in marathon they're each up about six percent. That's it pull off that here yeah! So i'm just looking at the historic volatility of apple, too apple right now, sitting at about 20 on historic volatility, 20 to 22. apple has gone as low, and it's interesting because right before the taper, i'm looking at right before the taper, uh apple has gone uh Down to 17 and 18 and in 2017, when we actually started raising rates, the turn of when we started raising rates and to 16 17., they were down at 11 8 to 11., so you could still have an historic volatility on apple.

That's insane! Look at amazon as well, for example, ammo. You look at amazon, let's see here, yep there we go amazon, okay, amazon for volatility sitting at uh, 24-ish 23-24-ish right now, amazon, also in 2016-17, went down to nothing, but it amazon, much more spiky. What's another one. To look at um, that's crazy.

I want to look at another one uh. What's what's something else, that's good like uh, something more a little high-tech. I don't know. Docusign docusign's been in the market for a while hvg, that's just crazy, um and who - and nobody knows exactly what's going to happen.

Of course, let's see here so looking at docusign here, docusign's sitting at 27 to about 34 10 day 30 day averages 27 to 34. right before the pandemic. They were oh, let me zoom out. Oh, i can't because they appeared in 2018., okay, so 2018 uh.