Welcome back to another meet! Kevin Report Today we get to talk about, well, of course inflation. That's the big story of today, followed by some updates on Silicon Valley Bank The inflation report comes out in about 25 minutes, so we'll be covering that. Live together! I Got myself two cups of coffee to prepare for that. one a Pokeball and one RuneScape anti-venom With that said, let's get started first.

Silicon Valley Bank Yesterday I had the privilege of actually going to a Silicon Valley Bank branch. I Ended up in the news for doing so, but I went to a Silicon Valley branch this particular Branch up. Uh, in NorCal in Palo Alto is actually Menlo Park was where the address was. happened to have a Hex.com sticker on it as well.

Uh, and folks, what we've got to talk about is the lack of panic. There was a lack of panic and maybe that's actually exactly what the point was. Maybe the idea was that during an economic crisis, we shouldn't let Banks fail or any deposits be at risk because what would happen if any deposits even remotely had a one percent haircut? What would people do? They would flee from smaller Banks and end up consolidating into the top 10 or top eight. Banks Certainly the top four.

Banks I Think some of the biggest recipients and beneficiaries of this crisis are almost certainly going to be the top four to top eight Banks As people consolidate over to those, but the question is, what happened was what happened? a bailout? and was it necessary? Let's think about that together first. What happened I Think the easiest way to understand what happened is the following drawing. Now I Spent a lot of time making this drawing because well, I mean as you can see, the quality is pretty dang high right here. Uh, and so this is actually a sheet directly from the Federal Reserve Uh, and even though it talks about that, uh, well, you know Saint Patty's Day coupon for next week uh, that you could use now for the programs in building your wealth.

It talks about the terms for the borrowing that Banks can do to make sure they could be a participant in essentially the Federal Reserve bailout. And one of the key elements it says here is collateral valuation. The collateral valuation of assets that are borrowed against will be at par margin will be 100 of par. So that's a fancy way way of saying.

the Federal Reserve is going to look at the value of your asset, not based on what it's worth today, but rather what the note says it's worth. So think about that for a moment. If you bought a car for twenty five thousand dollars and today it's worth ten thousand dollars in the market, the FED is basically looking at it, going and saying, well, the retail price is 25, so we'll just assume it's worth 25. Now that might not be the most.

Fair Example: Because at least these bonds or paper assets that the banks have actually have hope of being worth 25 in the future. Uh, whereas a car might not. But anyway, here's my drawing to sort of explain this. So on the left side we have a broke bank and the broke Bank says here's an IOU which remember an IOU is just a piece of paper I I Think sometimes we over complicate what a like what a bond or a loan is like.

Those things sound really complicated. Really all alone is is a piece of paper that is You hand me let's say a check for ten thousand dollars and I hand you a check back. that's an IO or a piece of paper back and all it is is an IOU IOU ten thousand dollars back plus X in interest, right? That's that's all it really is. So anyway, the banks, uh, have an IOU which carries value and so the bank say hey, look I have this piece of paper that says somebody oh owes me a hundred dollars But today the market says this paper is only worth forty dollars and the Federal Reserve comes along and says looks like a hundred dollars to US because your IOU says a hundred dollars So here's a hundred dollars in cash and then the politicians say yep, not a bailout because the fed's doing it So in other words, you have this kind of contorted system going on where basically the FED is overvaluing the assets that banks have.

The toxic assets banks have. And there's a reason for this. It's really important. You have to ask yourself, why would anybody else want those toxic assets? What company is going to come in and buy like what private company is going to buy Silicon Valley Banks toxic assets If the Federal Reserve will give them a hundred dollars for all their toxic stuff, A private Enterprise If everything is worth, let's say 50 cents on the dollar.

A private Enterprise won't even pay 50 cents on the dollar. They'll have to have a margin of safety built in on top of that. So they might only be able to pay 30 cents on the dollar. So that way they could potentially make a profit by buying the bank right.

So a private Enterprise wouldn't be stupid enough to buy this because they would basically be signing up to lose money unless they were getting a big discount. But if they were getting a big discount, then there wouldn't be enough money to give the depositors. Whereas if the bank is able to say hey, we have all these toxic assets, can somebody just give us money based on those, guess what? Silicon Valley Bank can actually do? They can actually pay all of their depositors. see remember: Silicon Valley Bank was insolvent as of December assuming the market valuation of their assets.

Remember, they had about 91 billion dollars in assets that were written down to 76 and potentially even lower and market value. But if they actually had a full market value of all their assets, they were not technically insolvent, even after you took out intangibles and all the other goodies. The fact is, if somebody paid them a hundred percent on basically par value, the bank has all the cash it needs to cash depositors out and this is where I believe the Federal Reserve looked along with Biden and yelling and I believe what they did is I believe They picked up the phone and they called The Bureau of Labor Statistics and said hey, uh, we got a labor crisis uh, or a banking crisis over here. Uh, we're gonna need a little bit of heads up on what that inflation report's gonna say and we already have a hint from Joe Biden What did Joe Biden say right before the inflation report? Inflation will be good on Tuesday In other words, the CPI report will be good on Tuesday Okay, so that basically gave Yellen the Fed and Biden the license to essentially overpaid for these assets because in theory, as long as these assets are held to maturity, they are worth what they are.

The money is actually there Now technically the backstop for that program, which a backstop is just a fancy way of saying. Well, what if those assets end up being toxic and the FED loses money on it, right? So the backstop to that is something known as the treasury equal a treasury. It's like Treasure Island and I forgot what the word is. Darn it.

It's like the Treasury Equalization program or something like that. But basically the backstop is this program that was created in 2008 and refunded. That is that as more money was put into it during Covid. and basically this program that has somewhere around 100 billion dollars and the program allows the treasury to essentially compensate the Federal Reserve for losses.

Well, guess where the money comes from in that backstop program from taxpayers. So even though technically right now the money isn't coming from taxpayers, it's coming from the Federal Reserve's money printer. They just digitally create the money. Sometimes when I say that people are like, but Kevin I didn't think the fat printed money I thought the treasury printed money.

So the FED digitally prints it. the treasury physically prints it crazy, right? Anyway, so the FED turns on the money printer. if they lose money on their guarantee, who pays for it taxpayers via the treasury's fund that backstops this program. Or there's also a second.

uh, by the way, that program is the Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund which is backed by taxpayer. Appropriations Appropriations Fancy way of saying tax dollars that Congress is like oh, look at all this money we have of how should we put it Walter and Nancy where should we put it? Let's put it over here. That's what. Appropriations They're appropriating the money right? Anyway, So that's one way that money can be backstopped.

The second way is through higher FDIC fees. Now, this is straight up socialism. When you say One Bank sucks ass and had bad risk management and then you say, but don't worry whatever losses we suffer because we bail out and help that bank, we'll just go ahead and raise the fees on everyone else to compensate for that. That's socialism.

Now it's Bank socialism. In this case, it's not Bank Capitalism Bank Capitalism would be let the bank fail, right? Uh, But and the bank did fail In Fairness In Fairness. The bank did fail. Uh, You just had somebody artificially come in and overvalue the banks leftover toxic assets at basically not toxic levels Uh, and then use that money to probably pay the extended salaries because salaries were increased about 50 a day before the FDIC receipt.

or actually upon the FDIC receivership. That's actually normal. You raise salaries to keep people on staff for 45 days. so you raise everyone's salary 45 or 50.

so people are incentivized to stay while they wind down the bank and they find new jobs that's actually normal. What's not normal is all the stock bonuses that were issued just the day before the FDI receivers show trip or the millions of dollars in stocks The CMO CFO uh, CFO By the way, who used to work for Lehman and CEO paid out? That's not normal, but anyway. uh if if higher FDIC fees are necessary, which the reality is, they may not be necessary because of the Fed's backstop. If higher Fdic's are necessary, we would expect that other Banks would end up passing those onto the consumer in the form of higher fees.

or the Third Way The consumer pays is via inflation because the FED turned back on the money printer. So no matter which way you slice it, this is a deposit bailout. and in a capitalistic, in a purely capitalistic system, it should not have happened. The bank's assets should have been sold at market value and then whatever was left which may have only been 70 or 80 cents on the dollar.

Whatever was left would then go to depositors as a dividend. So anybody who's within the FDIC Insurance limits which you should always know what those limits are. and you could do that by typing into Google FDIC calculator, you could calculate what your protection is. anyway.

After you know that anything above that level which is known as an unsecured or uninsured deposit, you receive a certificate for and then you get dividends. In other words, once the FDIC starts liquidating assets, they're like, all right. Here's you know, another extra hundred grand we found. All right.

Everybody gets ten dollars, whatever, and they just keep doing that until the bank is entirely liquidated. So the point of that is, uh to basically break down that yes, this is a deposit bailout. This is not a stock bailout or a bond bailout. Those people get wiped out.

Yes, the executives get fired. But there is still a question of if you backstop all depositors 100 with basically funny money, Do you create moral hazard? Moral hazard is the incentive for banks to say let's have risky lending products But it's also the Dual incentive of the depositor saying I want risky lending products and I'll go ahead and put my money at the risky bank because the fed's just going to come in on their white night and bail us out anyway. So who cares if I'm above FDIC Insurance I'll put my money at the risky Banks Because the fed's just gonna bail them out anyway. Now to some extent, everybody should have that mindset.

To some extent, every single one of you should be thinking, well, if there's more than a non-zero chance that a small Bank goes bankrupt, I may as well go bank at the top four Banks or the top eight Banks because those will always get bailed out Now to some degree that is already a massive set of moral hazard. The fact of the matter is, uh, when I hopped on the Twitter spaces Uh, that was going on around this contagion crisis or somewhere or twenty thousand people there. uh and uh I mean I think the uh, some Vice power, some presidential candidates were there, some Congress folks were there. It was really interesting space.

but anyway, when I hop in it uh I I Said look, the fact of the matter is because they asked me what due diligence do you have to do on the top four Banks And this is a form of moral hazard so I'm being clear about that I Recognize this is a form of moral hazard I Said The reality is, you don't have to do anything more than knowing that they are guaranteed by the Fed so you actually don't have to trust in the top four or top eight. Banks All you have to know is their de facto guaranteed by the FED In other words, the money printer will always turn on for those. To some degree that is a moral hazard, right? Chase could technically be more risky because of that. However, the FED Reigns that moral hazard in by having really really tight regulation.

Now we used to have that tight regulation for smaller Banks like Silicon Valley Bank as well. but uh, back in 2018 and it's not just Republicans Democrats voted for this as well. Pretty much everybody voted for deregulating smaller Banks Trump Republicans and many Democrats The only people who didn't vote for it were Progressive Democrats Like you know, know the Bernies of the world and uh and Elizabeth Warren uh and even people like Layl Brainerd not that she was at Congress at the time to vote uh, but she was just working at the FED now she works at the NEC But anyway, uh, back in 2018 and 2019, she said quote I see little benefit to the banks or the system for the proposed reduction in the core resilience that would justify increased risk to financial stability in the future because the liquidity crisis at a bank in that range or higher would pose substantial risk of loss to the posit. Insurance Fund the FDIC She raised concerns the change is quote weaken the core safeguards against vulnerabilities that caused so much damage during the last financial crisis.

So in other words Fair gain the person. Some of the people who were anti the regulation loosening in 2018 and 2019 were actually the one saying look, this is going to potentially lead to a 2008 again because if we have those bank failures then we end up with agent where basically everybody leaves the small Banks they realize hey, it's it's risky to be at the small Banks Let's just go somewhere where there is basically no chance the banks could fail and then you end up with less banking competition and potentially less banking Innovation Now there is another way the Federal Reserve could solve this. the Federal Reserve and and our government could basically say forget about the top eight Banks Look, this was something I proposed. Let's let's guarantee.

Uh, let's basically bring the top 100 Banks or or top 30 Banks or top 50 Banks Let's just bring many, many more Banks Under the Umbrella of basically too big to fail, but then put them under the umbrella of much more scrutiny and much more regulation. But that's exactly what banks like Silicon Valley Bank didn't want. So in other words, in this case, who wins? Well overall, markets win because we got stability from this bailout. Yes, to some degree, taxpayers are bailing this out.

in this, in essence, via the fact that they enable the Federal Reserve to bail this Bank out with funny money, the taxpayers are enabling that. That is a bailout backed by the taxpayer. Technically, the taxpayer doesn't have to pay today, but they are backstopping it if something goes wrong. Fine, but what is the benefit now to the taxpayer? Well, technically we have a stable Market We have a market that didn't go to hell on Monday Uh, we actually have uh, you know, indices that that were quite stable, if any, anything positive throughout the day.

Yesterday we actually have 10-year treasuries that became down and so the two years substantially. And while they're moving slightly up today, you've actually through this stability lowered. Uh, the likelihood of the FED continuing to hike. You've also lowered the cost of credit.

So to some degree the taxpayer here is is somewhat winning from the stability we have. So looking at the stability we got, remember: I went to a Silicon Valley Branch yesterday and the stability I saw was actually fantastic I mean look, this was my little short little clip from being outside the bank and there are like five reporters standing behind some cones and that's it. That's it. There was no Panic uh, like the news media, we're driving around basically just trying to find any bank that was making people queue up outside the bank.

and I mean at most you had maybe like five or ten orderly people standing in lines to go. You know, deal with whatever they needed to at the bank, presumably withdraw money, but you didn't actually have Panic so you didn't Panic Yes, the taxpayers are backstopping it. Uh, but now credit is is like costs are falling. So the consumer's winning The question.

Now the only question that really remains now is what kind of new moral hazard did we create via not even having but a one like not even a one percent haircut for depositors? Well, you've basically said, don't worry, you could stay at all small Banks Because we are de facto extending FDIC Insurance to unlimited amounts of money. This actually now makes it and that's not necessarily true. I Mean there could be another bank tomorrow, a small bank that fails and the Fed's like, yeah, sorry, we don't care. But then again, they opened their lending facility for all banks.

So technically all banks can go get clown Funny Money Uh, which we've already described. What that clown Funny Money looks like it looks like the FED saying hey, you know we see your assets worth forty dollars, but on paper it's a hundred so we'll give you a hundred bucks for it, right? That's that's a de facto funny money that ends up being backstopped by by taxpayers. So the question is, is there now Moral hazard that we have extended FDIC Insurance to all banks? Possibly. Uh, now, even though share like when shareholders bondholders get wiped out of the bank, you do somewhat limit moral hazard because what shareholders would authorize a bank to take risk that would allow them to potentially fail, right? Well, I mean probably a lot of shareholders because shareholders really just show up because they want to make money.

So I Think the idea that shareholders really know what the hell is going on the bank doesn't really work. I Suppose the executives know what risks they're taking. But then again, you know sometimes if you really want to win, you take risk. So I Don't know that we've really reduced the moral hazard by punishing executive shareholders and bondholders here.

Really, What you've done is if you've told every business owner or the one percent that, hey, don't worry, if you want to bank at smaller Banks and take out riskier debt, you could do that. And as long as it's decently large enough, we'll bail it out even above the FDIC limits. And then that, of course encourages riskier. Landing Now is that necessarily a terrible thing? Uh, possibly in the short term.

but I would expect over the next probably years because it takes a lot of time to do this. I would expect new banking regulation to actually bring Banks the size of Silicon Valley Bank plus or minus back into the 2008 style 2009 Dodd-Frank style protections that we had and that then would potentially limit that moral hazard. So in other words, bottom line: out of all of this: I Think it is absolutely right if you're part of the 99 and you're pissed off because you think this is a taxpayer fact Funny Money bailout of Silicon Valley The fact is, that's exactly what it is now our taxpayers actually going to lose anybody maybe not, or new regulations going to come that could potentially prevent this in the future to eliminate any remaining moral hazard. Maybe so maybe Michael Burry is right when he says the Silicon Valley Bank event is really a nothing Burger That's entirely possible.

It's entirely possible that all of this ends up just being a nothing Burger Is it like were we ever and I changed my mind a lot. But were we ever really concerned about the big Banks or this being a systemic crisis? No, it's the same thing I said last week. It's the same thing I've said for the last year and it's the same thing Kathy Wood Told me at dinner on Friday there's no systemic issue at this point. Of course, if we see red flags of that, you'd all be the first to flip-flop I mean I got two cups of coffee to keep me awake and I'll flip-flop as much as I need to.

but we've been pretty consistent here that, uh, there is moral hazard and this is a bailout. Will It ultimately be funded by taxpayers TBD Will there be better regulation to fix this and prevent this in the future? TBD But maybe it's just not as terrible as originally feared. and maybe maybe just maybe the government actually did the right thing. Maybe because even though it's a pisser, the reality is this week would have been an Sh-9t show if everybody had to go to every one of their Banks and start moving to the big Banks and we technically don't have that disaster right now.

In fact, even First Republic Bank keep in mind I Drove to a First Republic Bank yesterday. there's literally one right next to Silicon Valley Bank and uh, I flew up to San Jose and I drove around okay I had meetings as well so it's not like that was the only reason I flew there I had some meetings with developers and VCS but anyway First Republic Bank fell to 31 yesterday. Right now in pre-market this suckers up 65, which which puts it at about 51 bucks in pre-market I Think now there's sort of this sigh of relief that okay, we're not going to see mass panic at the smaller Banks and maybe just maybe this is a big signal to the FED that hey, it's time to start slowing down with rate hikes, we've started breaking things. and generally, once we start breaking the Fine China of the economy, what do we do? We pause or we start cutting.

So uh, with that, of course. Remember that we have amazing programs on building Your wealth Link down below. From the Stocks and Psychology of Money Group: We've got the zero to Millionaire group that surprisingly, right now, uh, is the most popular uh is Zero to millionaire real estate investing group I Think it's because people are are realizing that there's some really big opportunities coming up in real estate and uh, why not become as, uh, as much of an overnight expert in real estate as possible? And uh, of course, real estate takes work and a lot of effort. Uh, but if you have a guide, a mentor who can help you walk through it, it's a lot easier.

So anyway, use that St Patty's Day coupon down below. All right now we must talk. CPI Oh good lord, what's going on? All right? Uh, let me. Okay, we're on Commercial over here.

we got two minutes for CPI I Want to go ahead and get the Uh data. Okay, here we go. too much talking about Banks It's all right I'll have this up in about 30 seconds. All right, All right, how's everyone doing today? I Appreciate you being here for the data releases.

we've got about 90 seconds before the CPI uh. keep in mind my goal is to live stream every day around this time. I actually generally do it now Saturdays and Sundays as well. usually Saturdays and Sundays We have some more time to kind of just chill and answer questions which is kind of fun.

Uh, ordinarily I just do q A in the course member live stream but uh, even some here LOL Banks don't even do fractional banking anymore I don't know I don't know where you're getting that idea from. but uh, but anyway, appreciate y'all being here. So if you're looking for sort of a news Roundup in the morning of uh, finances I try to do uh this stream every morning. you can just watch it back on.

2X Okay, who's ready for CP live Oh oh I'm actually getting nervous now. Damn. All right, 45 seconds to CPI um I'll give I'll give out the numbers here in just a moment. sorry I Needed to take another shot I mean another sip of coffee? Okay CPI it's from on Deck Here are the expectations: Write them down or remember them.

CPI Month over month Point four CPI Core month over month point four CPI You're over here six and core year of your year five five Joe Biden Gave us a heads up that this CPI report would be good. He was confident this report would be good. Did Joe Biden get a leak? Does he know something we didn't? Here we go and CPI is 0.4 It's a match on the headline. month over month: 0.5 A little hot on Core, Not great.

CPI Year over year matches 6.0 and Core year-over-year matches at 5.5 So across the board, it's basically a match. With the exception of Core. Core comes in slightly hot. Not ideal.

Real average hourly earnings year over year Negative: 1.3 Real average weekly earnings year over year Negative: 1.9 If you speculated on this one with options, I'm not sure this is going to be enough to really push us in one direction or another. That core number coming in one tenth hot, though, if anything, is slightly bearish, that tilt slightly bearish. That moves us from a prior release of 0.5 on the month over month down to 0.4 along with expectations. But we go from point four on the prior release on Core with an expectation of 0.4 Unfortunately, up to 0.5 on an annualized basis that is in line with a 6 percent annualized inflation rate now.

unfortunately. Uh, the uh. Well, that is. that's not ideal.

That's not where we want to be. Uh, However, the uh. the other numbers all matching expectations. The fact that we're coming in at six percent year over year? Five Point: Five percent Core? Fine.

Uh. I I would say this is. this is clearly evidence to me that uh, we are likely to see a a the Federal Reserve stay 25 or potentially even zero. Uh, we'll talk about expectations from different companies in just a moment and a different analysts in just a moment.

But to me, this is probably enough data to really say. Look, we don't need to be thinking about a 50 BP hike. We're like inflation is slowly trending down. It's not plummeting, right? It's clearly not plummeting inflation when we have core increasing point five, uh, in, uh, in January here and then oh sorry.

this is uh, this is the last report. Let's go ahead and get the Uh the new one. That means the BLS hasn't they do their website yet? But anyway, we get 0.5 on the uh, uh, the headline core waiting for Okay, here we go there we go. There's the new report.

Uh, okay, this is the one release. Yeah, this is released March 14th. Okay, interesting, let's go ahead and grab this in here. Uh, that's the same document.

Okay, all right. whatever. CPI Oh, go ahead and throw this in here. but again, slightly hot here.

I Would say this probably reiterates a 25 BP hike, but if the FED is really concerned about the banking system, it is entirely likely that the FED could pause I think it's 25 BP more and done after this report. Uh, I don't think this is Uh this is a report where we could say okay, yeah, you know the FED should pause or cut. This is probably another 25. BP We've bailed out the banks.

Everything's good. Let's keep going one more 25 and we're on the right trajectory. That's the idea here. Uh, so let's see here.

index. so this does again show. Yeah, this is the March 14th report right here. Total for all items less food and energy Rose point Five percent in February after Rising 0.4 Uh in in uh in January That's good.

Remember this is the February report released in March Let's look at some of the details that we have over here. So food increased point four percent in Fab at home Rose Point Three percent Five of the six major food groups increased over the month. Not ideal, although then again, it's okay if things increase as long as the increase is a slow rate index for non-alcoholic beverages. Uh, increase one percent for February Uh, on the Mormons Back at it again.

uh Meats Poultry fish eggs fell point one percent over the month. Okay, cool. So a little bit of a mix over here and food fine. You've got Energy Energy Index fell point six percent and Feb Fantastic Natural gas decreased eight percent over the month.

It shows you how volatile this stuff is. Fuel oil Rose Nine point two percent over the last 12 months. Uh, okay, whatever. let's get out of the volatile and let's go to the most important one.

So the most important ones in my opinion are the core Services segments. So I'm going to go ahead and pull up the detailed chart and at the bottom of the CPI release, you can actually get the detailed expenditure categories chart. And we want to look here because really, what we look looking for and we know what Jerome Powell is doing. He's probably already done this because he gets these reports early.

It's not fair man. I Want to get the reports early too? How am I supposed to YOLO My options man. Anyway, over here. what do we have? This is what we want to pay attention to.

So just so you know how this chart works. The far right column is the seasonally adjusted, uh, month over month percent. This is generally what we use. If you want the unadjusted, you could use the second, uh percent column over here.

But really, we're going to be looking at the far right one. For the seasonal adjusted, we're going to go straight to Services Over here. See, look, this is just not ideal. Why? Why is water and trash collection? Uh, and the services for that? Why is that up 0.8 percent? That's too hot.

That shows you Services Just too hot. Domestic Operations minus 1.3 percent. That's good Moving Storage Freight minus 3.2 percent. Fantastic.

We want to see negatives: Good Good Medical Good Negative Point Seven Good Professional Services Negative Point Three Good Physician Services Negative: 0.5 This is good. Dental service is point one. that's okay. 0.3 a little bit hot.

not bad Hospital and related Thank God It comes down to point One from 0.7 That's good. More of these Services Coming down good. Where are we sticky? Look where we're sticky. Oh thank God This is actually a good.

This is good folks. Uh, rental inflation is sticky. Come on man. Everybody and their mom is expecting rental inflation to come down.

So so this is. this is good. It's just. this is probably one of the biggest lagging indicators you have, right? Is rental Inflation Point: Seven percent on rent of shelter primary residents coming in with a 0.8 That's hot.

Uh, 2.3 For lodging away from home That's not ideal. That's like your Airbnb and your hotel index here. Uh, lodging away from home really expensive here Up: 2.6 percent. that's hot.

Owners equivalent Rent Still Hot. Remember, rent of shelter is like over 32 percent of CPI and over 25 percent of CPI. So when you see that this is sticky over here. but you know that this is going to be coming down thanks to Leading indicators, it's a good thing, right? Look at the weights over here.

Rent Of Shelter: 34. That's right. They actually increased the weight for rent of shelter from 32 percent to 34 percent. so they actually made it even more painful.

And the biggest component of that is owner's equivalent rent at 25. So this rent section staying up is the hottest part here. Actually, look at this other lodging away from home. That's the part that really ran up is barely one percent.

So hotels folks? barely one percent of. CPI. Who cares if hotels get more expensive? Just bring owners rents down. That's it.

That's all it's going to take for inflation to start plummeting. Because look at all this yellow here. This yellow is actually good. These are nice negatives and services over here.

Health Insurance: Let's go Minus: Uh Point Uh, four, uh, 4.1 percent. A little more expensive to take care of elderly and invalids. Dude who still uses that phrase the CPI is that's racist. Okay, no, that's not racist.

But anyway. Uh, so. Transportation Services: 1.1 percent. To the upside: that's hot.

That's not ideal. That's a little hot. Uh, so. Transportation Services: What's driving that? Well, what's driving that is motor vehicle maintenance and repair.

That's only at point. Two percent motor vehicle. Body Work Guys Stop working on the body Point: Nine percent over here. Motor Vehicle Maintenance and Servicing Point: Five percent.

Motor Vehicle Insurance Due to insurance has been skyrocketing, it's a pisser man. everything's going up with insurance. Look at home insurance too. Anyway, Point: Nine percent over here.

Parking and Fees: Okay, that's not that big of a deal. Public Transportation: Come on man. the government should be able to rig this one. Three Point Four: Two percent for public transportation.

Good. Lord How are we back to airfares going up now? Airfare is only a 0.57 weight. so again, it's It's a drop in the bucket compared to rents. but geez, Lord 6.4 on airfares? Then you just destroyed the down of the last two months.

It's actually interesting. Morgan Stanley had a uh, a had a heat uh map of airfares and they're like, we think more planes are flying now maybe that's just my plane I Like people like Kevin you're not gonna fly enough to justify a plane I flew 70 hours in the last 30 days. If you annualize that out, that's like flying 840 hours in a month. That's insane.

anyway. Uh, Transportation down. Okay, so in other words, it's uh, probably the outside of of city transportation. Well, it's really airfares that are driving this Transportation up in public transportation Recreation Services that's still hot.

Why is Recreation coming in so hot? That's not ideal Recreation Coming in at one point two percent I mean that's like 12 inflation so that's not great. Cable and satellite streaming video disc. Who still buys that Pet services? Interestingly, we saw leading indicators. even a course member.

Uh, remember, we got a course member coupon code linked down below St Patty's Day price will be going up after it. But anyway, a course member emailed me and said hey, I got a pet shop we're still raising prices the first few months of the year. So what did I do I Went and looked at Petco and the other pet companies earnings calls and they're like, yeah, we still have some leftover price increases coming for the first quarter and first half of 2023. but after the first half of 2023, we're done.

We're not going to raise prices anymore. Now That to me is actually really interesting because it's a leading indicator. Leading indicators matter what we're looking at right here is a little bit lagging. What are the leading indicators saying The leading indicators are saying: Yes, there's still a little bit of pipeline inflation Yes.

Walmart I Still had to raise wages? Yes, McDonald's still had to raise wages a little bit. But what is the leading information? Well, the leading information is, don't worry, inflation is trending down. Yeah, yes, maybe a little bit left in the pipeline, but that's normal. Okay, so I'll also tell you what the suits are saying in just a moment.

Education com Services That's nothing. Point two percent. Honestly, a lot of these services are coming in pretty soft. Postage and delivery point two.

Tuition and Schools point One: This is actually fantastic folks. This is actually a pretty good report. Other: personal services that's pretty hot 1.1 That's not great. That's going to be like your haircuts.

That's probably the last place you would expect to see softest miscellaneous personal services like Legal Services up one percent that's not great laundry apparel Financial Services Man, those Finance people raising their prices all the time. Dang it. Uh, by the way, have I mentioned that we're raising the prices for the programs and building your wealth. Link down below.

Use that same Patty's Day coupon. Get in before we raise the prices. You get a price guarantee once you're in, so you get the best price for life. But anyway.

I Have to say personally, first, uh, you know, glance at this. this is actually a very good report. and what? Alcohol all getting cheaper? Oh damn, who wants to go out? It's on me. uh, alcohol going down point or three percent other Goods a little hotness there on Goods 0.7 on other Goods but that's like to back tobacco Sporting Goods 0.2 That's fine.

there's the Pets product. We knew that would be a little hot. Uh, and that's sort of the pipeline. We just talked about.

Education calm coming in. Negative point one uh, look at the vehicle segment over here: use cars and trucks still coming in with a negative 2.8 even though leading indicators are suggesting this should be actually Rising uh I Think the seasonal adjustment is really well, even unseasonably adjusted. it's negative over here. So I don't know if there's a lag here because we do kind of expect used cars and trucks to start popping again, but so far they're quite negative over here now.

I'm going to jump into what, uh, the suits are saying I want to get there. look how the hell is apparel? A Point point: Eight percent. What is this Are you telling me? Lulu has PP again after I thought they had no PP What is this garbage? Household cleaning supplies 0.5 tools and hardware and Outdoor Equipment stop spending money 2.7 percent. Uh, all items.

Let's go. Okay, that's fine. What do we got over here? Uh, window floor coverings Minus one point Three percent. Hey, that's good for house hack living room furniture.

That's good for the Airbnb hack. Negative point: Eight percent Furniture Betting only two percent? That's fine. Okay, good. so this Appliance is popping up a little bit.

Okay, not ideal, but but all right. I'd say Overall, this is actually not a scary report. Let me see what the suits are saying To me. this is actually suggesting that we have, uh, some, uh, uh, disinflation.

Fine, it's lumpy, right? It's lumpy. It's like, ah, some of the things that were falling last month arising. Now Yes, it's lumpy. but the biggest thing that's keeping this up.

The only thing keeping this up is the Viagra of housing. That's it. Otherwise, otherwise this thing would be so soft it would be the softest uh CPI report you've seen in years. Anyway, what are the suits saying underlying U.S Consumer Prices Rose in February by the fifth by the most in five months.

That's the point. Five percent an acceleration that leaves the fan into tough place as it seeks to thwart rapid inflation without the turmoil of the banking sector. Yes. Bloomberg Intelligence: Chief says data is just strong enough to think it clears the FED for 25.

BP That's what I said the first like minute of this video. I Think this nails down 25 BP I Agree I Think we've got one more 25 BP in us and that's probably it. Uh, core. Services X Inflation While stubbornly high ticking down, we're down now to an annualized increase of a 6.14 Uh, down from 6.2 percent.

This is actually good. Uh, so I I Like this so you could see how slow it's moving down. Look on screen now please. You can look how slow it's moving down core.

Services X Inflation. But you know what the good news is, folks. You know what? This line right here says: no Paul Volcker No Paul Volcker No Paul Volcker. That's actually important because remember Kevin Meet Kevin for the longest time has had the opinion that yes, we are going to go through hell, but we are not going to go through a pole Volker There is no evidence of a wage price spiral.

There is no evidence of a spiraling out of control of core inflation, even excluding shelter. Yes. Is it sticky? Is it coming very slowly? Yes. We don't want it to come very slow.

Come down very slowly. We want it to come quickly. but it's taking longer. But that's okay.

higher for longer is not the end of the world. It doesn't mean Paul Volcker, It means Nike Swoosh Recovery baby. Another report to reiterate Kevin's bias of the Nike Swoosh recovery. It's true, But look I'll tell you if if things are going anti my thesis.

but so far this is. this is right along thesis here. Uh Bank of America says we're in a stress event right now blah blah blah I Want to by the way, tell you what other banks are saying in terms of uh, what? They whether they think we're going to get a cut uh, flat or or hikes I'm going to give that to you in about give me one minute I Want to look at a couple more things. Super Core Month over month.

moving from 0.36 and Jan to 0.5 in Feb Not ideal. That's that six percent rate. Uh, that's six percent annualized rate. Again, we'd like to see that coming stuff.

but again, no. Paul Volcker. Yes, higher for longer. but no problem.

Uh, okay. we those were all just the data report. Okay, so I've already gone through this one last thing. Core: Goods Inflation cooled.

Cursed course. service. Inflation is marching higher. uh, on an annual basis.

Oh yeah, but that's annual. Okay, we just looked at Core Services Um, month over month. which is more important. Yes, annual is still technically lapping numbers and still trending up.

Not a biggie. Okay, now what are the suits or what were the suits saying before this report now I Want you to keep in mind what I'm about to read you is not another coupon code pitch. It is not suggesting that you should go to Metcaven.com life to get life insurance in as little as five minutes or go to Metcaven.com Weeble to get yourself free stonks. It is simply to say that Bank of America expects a 25 BP hike uh in March Uh City still expects a 50 BP hike in March due to a hot fed uh or hot jobs report.

Uh, and this probably reiterates that the CPI report we just got reiterates it. Why? Because guess what CPI called it or or Citibank called it the Citibank said we actually expect Core CPI to come in hot at point five percent month over month. Guess what? It came in at point five percent. So Citibank actually thinks the 0.5 that we got yes or that we just got in CPI reiterates a 50 BP hike I Don't think so I think 25.

I think we got one more and done one and done Wham Bam Thank you All right Barclays Expects a pause or a 25 BP hike because of the banking stress in my opinion. After the CPI report, it reiterates 25. Goldman expects a pause due to uh the plummeting basically of of yields. They think the market agrees with them.

Uh, so Goldman is expecting a pause JP Morgan expects a 25 BP hike. Credit Agriculture expects a 25 BPI Deutsche Bank expects a 25 BP height. Now here's the interesting: Xbox a 25 basis point cut and half uh oh sorry and halting balance balance sheet reduction. Boy, that's a mouthful.

They actually think actually expects a 25 basis point cut and they think the FED is going to pause quantitative tightening because of the buy the FN fed pivot program. It's not actually what it stands for the Btfb program anyway. Uh, some people are calling it that. But anyway.

uh, no more research thinks the Btfp program is insufficient to maintain stability in the financial system. As a result, the FED is actually likely to cut by 50 basis points and stop QT Crazy. They're the only ones saying that Jeffries expects 25 BP regardless of whether CPI comes in slightly hot or slightly low. Okay, TD Bank thinks 25 thanks to the Silicon Valley Bank uh, uh, a program, a TD Bank went into this thinking that Core Services remain strong and that disinflation from core Goods is fading.

Yes, that's what we saw. Conclusion: Most of all of the analysts on Wall Street are reducing their expectations for a a Fed hike to 25 BP Some of them are going wild. Yeah, analysts gone wild. Oh, that sounds like a fun party Anyway, Uh, they they only no more research thinks we're going to have the potential of seeing a 25 BP cut.

Now what is the market saying as of minutes ago? Well, the market is suggesting that we're probably sitting at about a 91.5 chance of a 25 BP hike and only about an 8 chance of a pazola. What is the terminal rate expectation showing? Let's take a look at this. Uh, so let's see here. terminal rate expectation Up Now up to Oh my God What a roller coaster This is stupid.

This: This is just stupid. 4.95 Okay, why am I frustrated in saying this is stupid? Because look at the chart. Look at this nonsense. That's what this is folks.

It's nonsense. We literally sat at like 4.9 to 4.95 right? We literally sat right here for what four or five months this is like. September October November December It started rising in uh and and well, really started rising in February So maybe I'm a month off. But anyway, say whatever.

October November December January Basically for four months we were stuck at 4.9 Then we had these hot January reports and we went to hell. and then we had a banking crisis and we came back from hell and look at where we are. Now This is like the most flip-floppery Market I've seen in my life. Look at this.

We're literally where we were sitting forever. What a joke. What a joke. We're right back to where we were sitting forever.

All the drama of February and the last eight weeks is basically like JK good Lord Okay, what about Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Goldman Financial And then we I want to look at Inflation Break evens. Let's take a look at how people are reacting over here. So Inflation Break evens? What are they sure? Goldman sucks Financial conditions index sitting at 100. it's actually good.

They're tighter than where they were at the end of January. They're not as tight as what we saw in September or October, but they're good enough to where I think Jerome Powell says hey, look uh Financial conditions are tight. We're good. We could do a 25 BP and chill.

You know it's like Netflix and chill. except you know in Fed world it's 25 BP in Shell. Let me show you that chart. so look over here if you zoom in.

Okay, so here's Jan Look how low we got in terms of financial conditions when we got the Hot Jobs report. Guess what? Jerome Powell said when we got this Spike Oh, Hot Jobs report No, it's it's not a problem, you know Financial Conditions already reacted to that. That was the reaction he was talking to. look at what we ended up getting.

Bubba I Mean it is entirely possible that with the financial conditions this tight, the FED could pause I Think it's unlikely. Dude, you know how many people yelled at me on Friday when I said I think this banking crisis makes it more likely for us to have a pause than 50 BP That doesn't mean I think a pause is more likely than 25. I think 25 is most likely, but I said immediately. 25 Most likely maybe pause, but no more 50.

After the banking crisis, people got so mad at me. now all the analysts are saying it anyway. Okay, now we have to look at the five-year break. Even five year break even.

By the way, thanks for being here I Like hanging out with y'all uh, it's it's really cool. Uh yeah. I know it doesn't seem that way because I'm all alone technically. uh, but uh.

but really, it's it's like we're at like a Super Bowl together. maybe not a Super Bowl like a concert 17 000 strong concert and you got literally some dude wearing a Christmas sweater. Y'all showed up to a concert with some dude who can't sing a Pokemon in RuneScape coffee mug talking about inflation. Man who's more weird, you or me, all of us.

Okay, what do we have over here? Uh, but we could be weird together. So what do we have over here? We have, uh, what is this? This is the uh, uh, five year Break Even Okay, all right, that's okay. that's okay. Look at that.

Pretty stable over here. I mean I that's probably the app. wouldn't have it any other way. That's probably average of what we've seen since.

September I Mean let's draw some lines here. I mean who doesn't like drawing lines on sticks? Uh, okay. so um, let's see here. So we we did not hit a higher high here.

That's good. We did hit a higher high compared to October. But are we continuing the downtrend? I mean somewhat. You could kind of say we're continuing that downtrend.

I mean if I draw the line here, it's better. It's not as strong as the downtrend that we had, which was probably more like this. Uh, what if I draw? You know it. It really shows.

We're definitely above me a median here. see this was this was more of a solid downtrend right here. and we're certainly above that. You know we should be a little.

We should be about 10 bips lower right now just based on this trend right here. Uh, so you know we got this is really consistent with higher for longer, but it's certainly not a Paul Volcker. Paul Volcker would look like this I guarantee you if we had inflation that looked like this. Uh, or break even expectations that looked like this.

I guarantee you we'd be at 10 interest and we'd be getting Paul Volcker. We're not we. This is not. This is not a Paul Volcker.

This is a hire for longer. Buy the F and dip. That's what it's telling you. It's by the day because it's just slowly going to Trend up.

uh in a Nike Swoosh style recovery I Know people get mad at me also for saying that, but then what? Then again, you know I've gotten to the point where people just get mad at me forever I just I don't care anymore. Uh but anyway yeah so I have to be very clear about this because people hear Nike Swoosh and I think they just see this uh I think the better way to look at this is probably something like this and then like this but this being very very volatile. but I personally think that we're going to look back and say wow that year to two years period of time between mid-2022 and maybe you know the end of 2023 that was a in time to invest you were able to invest a pretty reasonable valuations. Good thing I Signed up for meet Kevin's Stocks and Psychology of Money and zero to millionaire real Estate course or the Elite Hustlers to learn more how to make money as an entrepreneur or as a as an employed person I Learn everything I Need to know about Lsc's or tax benefits or whatever because yes anyway, check those programs that link down below so that has a CPI for us.

Uh let's get some reaction from what, uh, what other folks are saying on CNBC So let's see what we got over here. I Want to see let's let's see who we can roast today. Are you announcing you're seeing other oil coming down? So so that is showing the lagged effect of what the FED is doing is working. Now what the FED did uh with the bags? They had to every time you raise rates so fast and history will tell you something is going to crack and you talked about it.

Yeah, all right. whatever. So this is actually really interesting. Uh, everything is pretty well green right now.

Uh well, maybe not everything. Let me see here. let me see what's red. But look at this.

Nasdaq's up a percent I Want to see how volatile it was because when I'm reading the data I actually don't have oh my. God look at that. look at that. you got the hot core and so you had the NASDAQ crash for like a hot like 20 seconds.

I mean honestly, I'd have to go down here to an interval that's in the seconds to see this because we didn't even. You know we the the minute Candlestick was actually quite tight. It's just the Wicks that went crazy. Uh and then all of a sudden we realized wait a minute core Services aren't actually that bad.

Let's go Kevin in your Nike Swoosh recovery. Do you believe the FED gets CPI back down to two percent? No. but I actually don't expect them to because they're gonna pull the fake genie out of the bottle and I don't want anybody to tell me Kevin flip-flopped on them because I swear I've been saying that for over a year. nobody's talking about it.

but I guarantee they're gonna pull the Fate Genie out of the bottle f A uh I t pronounced fate Flexible Average inflation targeting. We'll probably get down to a sticky inflation level towards the end of the year of something like you know: 3.5 percent, two and a half to three and a half percent. and I guarantee it. The Fed's gonna go well.

You know we don't have to rush it down because as long as inflation averages two percent, we're in line with global standards and you know what's going to happen. Every reporter and their mom who's out there going Jay pal ain't gonna get it down to two percent, they're all gonna. they're gonna. They're gonna go like this.

Throw all their paper up in there and they'll punch the air. They go. Oh, we knew we had some kind of trick up his sleeves of the twist of fate. Yeah, they're all gonna be punched in the air I mean like damn it, he found another way.

Uh anyway. uh okay. so what what else do we have here? Let's is anything red? Um Build-A-Bear barely United Airlines Three percent. Um, this is like nothing that's red schwabi Schwab Schwabs up 13 Lockheed Martin Tupperware What else? How's FRC Coinbase is actually up a good chunk right now.

Uh, what do we got? Frcs up 49 Careful man, some of the small stuff meme rallies but uh, but hey. I mean physically, having been at these branches at open yesterday like Bank open wasn't scary. It was only like a 40-minute flight time. I think it was 50 minutes there and 40 minutes back.

Uh, but anyway, it was. It was a pretty decent flight to get out there. Um, so uh, USD uh or sorry. Bitcoin let's look at Bitcoin Etc USD Wow, look at that 26 000.

look at that surge over the last few days. Banking Panic Crisis: Everything's going to hell. Finance 2008 Financial Crisis is back 19 600 Bitcoin Now you're at twenty six thousand in for Giggles Had you bought then divided by 19573, you would have been up 33. Oh my.

Lord I Don't actually expect somebody perfectly timed that. uh with, you know, a good chunk of their portfolio. but it shows you. Bitcoin's resilience.

Constant constant Bitcoin resilience. That's one thing that that I've consistently seen over this last year is the impressiveness of this. this: the resilience of this. uh, it moves very quickly though, so it's certainly a lot more volatile.

But uh. Anywho, let's see what the El suits are saying on TV You know the people who are on TV over here. let's see what we got. Uh, um, what do you got? is that? is that another ad? How lame? Yeah.

Inflation Nation All right here we go. Let's see what they're saying. It's done. The latest data says it's not.

You got a little bit of of whiff of financial instability. The market is telling the FED to be done. Doesn't change the fact that we have a inflation still above Trend here and that has to come down. The market doesn't care that the inflation is still there.

This is a very, very difficult environment. Now, the risk of something breaking is now tilting to be a little bit higher than the risk of runaway inflation. The Federal Reserve is moving to slow inflation that is going to have collateral damage. Along the way, they put a pretty big bazooka in place with that Btfb program on Sunday I We're going to point to that it's very soon to make a call on the FED being done.

U.scpi could still be important. It all depends on what the financial markets do. The data would say you need to hike and we've got Financial stability risks pointing the other way. Let's get straight into it when Lafayette's Chris Jones of Charles Schwab for the two of you, thanks for being with us for about 29 minutes away from that open with equities up more than one percent.

Kathy I Know this is a difficult exercise, but go with me. If we could put the financial stability concerns to one side and you looked at payrolls and you looked at CPI Would your base case be 50 for next week? No, it'd be 25. I Don't think that there's even even putting aside the financial instability. uh issue.

I Don't think that there's a compelling case for the FED to keep raising at 50 basis points. Um, a meeting. After all, we've already seen Financial conditions tighten. Outside of what's happened over the past week or so, the Senior Loan Officer survey has shown tightening credit conditions, we've seen a deceleration in inflation.

Some good news on the wage growth side that starts to ease. so I think 25 would have been my base case. Um, even aside from everything that's happened Krishna A Lot's happened. Where are you on the FED Now based on what we've heard so far, Well, so I I agree with Kathy I think uh, the the likelihood of 50 even with this number probably was uh, uh, modest.

Uh, and this ensures uh, or the financial instability ensures that it probably is not going to be 50 for sure. But for it not to be 25? I Think that is a challenging case as well, especially based on the data and the fact that the FED loses its optionality to tighten if things get worse down the road. if they pause today. Because if they pause today, you know much the way that they are having difficulty ramping it back up to 50 from uh, what they were doing earlier after cutting it down to 25.

If they pause today, the likelihood that they can continue tightening Uh, that optionality Withers a little bit. Well, Krishna Look at the calls to pause Goldman Sachs pause Wells Fargo pause Barclays They say pause. There's a whole host of banks now Wall Street that say pause now West cause Nomura goes one further. Take a listen.

this they say in reaction to loot me: Financial Stability of Risk We now expect the FED to cut rates 25 basis points beginning in March. We also expect the FED to stop QT What'd you say? Back to that Krishna Well, so I I Think there is a case to be made for pausing. Having said that, I Think the FED has to be mindful of the fact that inflation is still very, very high relative to what they're shooting for and the underlying momentum in the economy is still quite, uh, still quite strong. So it's not that the cause the case for pause is zero.

That's not the case, it's just that the preponderance of data is still pointing towards inflationary pressures and the FED has to have have its eye on that particular. uh, that particular issue. I Think calling for a cut in this meeting is a little bit of a stretch for sure. That's more it's taking a position out rather than it being a realistic thing.

Well, we'll say in a week. Oh what a Dis is actually probably not right or probably not wrong with that. Uh, let's listen to Cmbc For A Moment Now one of the things that one of the reasons why this has been so different is in the other time since 2000 and 2009, the issue was ethnic. Do the banks have enough equity? This is confidence.

Do they have enough deposits? And it is absolutely true that it's so easy to to journal deposits to JPMorgan that you have to understand America that that's what this is about. This is not about do they have enough money? Uh, in terms of equities, do they have enough deposits? I mean for instance, let's say Huntington Bank shares the Huntington Bank shares. Very good bank. Uh, did not see any outflows Thursday not see any apples Friday uh.

Written reports about how much insured have suggested that they don't have enough insured. Actually, they have the most insured of any reason. So when you look at Huntington bank and you see it yields what six percent you say that's a bargain. and I do think it's worth buying.

Boring Jimbo Being boring. huh? Let's see what they choose to do. No, Kathy's born to. They're all boring.

What is this? Okay, we have one other choice. We'll go this way see if they're boring. Bank Was responsible for the day-to-day supervision and the Svb CEO Mr Greg Becker Sat on its board up until a few days ago. That would seem to be a conflict of interest.

All right, Thanks a lot. Uh, let's bring him back in. Lubassan is still with us. The regional Banks They are bouncing off their huge losses yesterday.

Is that to you a sign that the contagion may be winding down? I Think it's a great sign? I Mean look, banking is a Confidence Game A lack of it is contagious with Silicon Valley Bank you had a just a fear over the weekend that it was going to spread, right? I mean we saw this happen very quickly unfolded. Um, but now that you're seeing this bounce back, you see the FED did the right thing. Stepped in, the FDIC stepped in, restored confidence in the system. Uh, I Don't want to say that Silicon Valley Bank was isolated.

The contagion is going to continue in the Venture Capital world. Uh, they've got a lot of repercussions coming. You're mentioning some of the conflicts of interest, a lot of self-dealing It's just really exposing that this model had great marketing, but not the best results necessarily. And there's they're going to have to answer for that in the quarters ahead in the years ahead.

so we're still in the same position. Don't buy stocks by short-term treasuries. You and I still agree on this. Do we? Yes, I Think Do we still agree that's a boring strategy? Or we still agree? No.

I look I I agree with you treasuries. But then look, let's forget about becoming banking experts right now. Let's look at the underlooked opportunities in the market. I Mentioned one a couple weeks ago.

Prevention Bio was trading at about six or seven dollars. It just got bought out yesterday for 25. So there is undeniable value in the market. You gotta be.

but you got to be balanced. You got to find it boring. I'll call it balanced all right. Luke Thanks very much for joining us on important day.

See you later! President Biden Tried to reassure the nation that our banking system is safe and secure that's bringing. Jason Chaffetz Jason Did the President's statement exactly 24 hours ago? Did it instill real confidence in the financial system? Did it work? No. I don't think so in real time, the the market was going down I Don't think anybody believes that the President has his finger on the pulse and actually understands uh, what's happening I Think most people understand that he just read a script, but he also said some things that I think most people know aren't true. To suggest that there's no taxpayer funds will be affected.

Obviously, if the FDIC is going to cover every single deposit, fees are going to go after. go up something. All right, let's jump on over to this for a moment. So uh, y'all have heard about the 25 BP cut call from Nomura Research.

This is actually the letter from them I Read this last night when I was going through this I was trying to understand if they were actually serious and it seems like they kind of are. they said uh, but but but not in the way that you would think, uh, they they talk about the Sep: The summary of economic projections. In reaction to loo