Sen. Joe Manchin says he’s a ‘no’ on the Biden’s 'Build Back Better' plan and it creates a huge opportunity to PROFIT BIG from what just happened.
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In the back of your freezer, all the way to the back, there's things we don't want to see, we prefer not to ask or check what's there, and that is exactly where the buildback better two trillion dollar legislation is currently at senator joe munchen. Put that mother lover on ice, it's pretty much as good as shia labeouf's career and in this video i'll explain what it means for the economy, what it means for the stock market short term long term, what it means for inflation and, most of all, how. I think this just improved my setup for 2022 insanely. I'm gon na make a lot of money from this play i'll explain in a second.
Why and how don't worry? Nothing comes behind the paywall. Everything is free on this channel. So let me just explain to you what happened for the past few months. Biden and crew were pretty much, you know dating joe munchen.
He was giving him flowers and chocolates trying to convince him to sign off and in the last second, on the third date, joe munchen put biden in the friend zone. Yes, he friendzoned biden right on the cusp of that third date and what i think is funny is actually their names munchen, joe and sleepy joe. They could be like the new chichen chang they're gon na be munching and sleeping yeah, just uh my crazy mind. In any case, this bill dying essentially means that the stock market is going to have a hissy fit.
When you take video games from teenagers, they don't appreciate it, they don't like it and they throw a tantrum, which is exactly what's about to happen now this plan, this two trillion dollars, were supposed to be one more shape of the money. Printer there's a few ways to put money in the system. This was one of them. This two trillion dollar, which we'll be taking away from the market right now, is essentially taking a video game from a kid.
The kid ain't gon na, like it and you're about to have a few rough hours but long term, it's probably healthy for the kid, which is exactly what i think is happening here. This bloated two trillion dollar plan would have had a very negative impact on inflation. These guys have just been handed down a gift. This is the best thing that could have happened to the fed, getting two trillion dollars less off the table.
The problem is that i think their happiness is going to be a little bit premature because this doesn't solve the problem. That's like giving an aspirin to somebody with a really bad disease, it's going to lower the fever, but you still have to address the main problem. So we would still need a much hawkish fed to solve the problem. They cannot just leave festering around.
It's not like it solves the problem. It creates an illusion of a solution which is really good for us. Let me explain, and even though the economy is going to suffer in 2022, obviously we're going to have kovitz still hanging around and it seems not going anywhere anytime soon, but the fed and the government won't have the same means of helping out the market like they Did in 2020 the inflation is way too high for them to ever. Try to do that again. So it's going to be very tough. However, if you think that this completely resolves the conundrum of the fed when to announce that they lie to you again about having to raise interest higher than they already said, well, not exactly first of all, they still have to do it, because inflation is just too Crazy, it might buy them a little bit more time. It might not happen in march when they actually start the first rate hikes, but they don't have a lot of time because by mid next year, if they don't do something about it, inflation is going to go ballistic. They have to do it now.
Here's the thing the fed already played you once with the whole transitory, now they're cosplaying, this whole hawkish approach trying to get you again and as george bush said, you know fool me once shame on you fool me twice. I think i can't be fooled again. I don't know what he said: who cares? The problem is that we've seen this happen before and look at this high inflation low bond yields. How can this be it's kind of logical and yet they're consistently low, currently at 1.4? That is because smart money isn't buying the feds lie.
They're staying in high demand on bones now. How does this improve the setup i have for 2022 and how we can make money from this check this out? So, looking at the bond market, we know one thing: nobody has priced in yet higher interest rates. Essentially the bonds are trading as if we're not going to have elevated interest beyond what the fed has already announced. They're not buying the they're not buying the lie, which is good for us, because essentially that means that the fall is going to be much higher when the fed eventually has to admit that they've made a mistake.
It's just a question of time, not if they will have to do it, because the inflation is going to be way too insane. So when they actually announce it, the fall from grace is going to be much bigger now, with this new setup. So with the market completely not pricing interest hikes, how can we make money? Well, there's two things i'm doing at least personally for myself and don't take this as financial advice. I'm not a financial advisor just a guy on the internet with an opinion which might be inaccurate might be wrong, might be the ramblings of a madman.
You know doing research make your own decisions, but this is how i'm playing this i'll be waiting for the fed to pull the same stunt. They just did with transitory saying they're retiring the award, i'm gon na, be waiting until march april may when the fed comes out and says well, we were wrong about interest rates. They need to be much higher than we anticipated we're retiring the previous rates. Now that is going to send the stock market down at least growth stocks and then i'll be picking up all the growth stocks for cheaper, so i'm not buying any growth right now. What i am buying in the meanwhile is all the inflation-proof stocks i can find and in that respect, there's a whole set of parameters. You have to look at to find out if stock is inflation-proof or not such as how sticky are the clients, how much pricing power they have, how much capex they actually have to spend to ramp up how much cash flow they have all of these parameters. In fact, i've made a whole video detailing how to find inflation-proof stocks. I'm going to put it right here for you to watch also on our patreon page, we're finishing up a project of 30 stocks which are inflation-proof we're ready at the 10th right now.
We're gon na finish the other 20 by the end of this month, which means in the next 10 days check it out. The link will be below it's five bucks per month. If you join. Thank you so much and we'll see you tomorrow.
My mentor just showed me some charts. Yeah, the overall market is in the begining of a downtrend unless it flips for no reason. I'm not calling a crash, I'm not saying it will last long, but it is a downtrend nonetheless. The fundamentals you talked about seem to align with what she showed me
the dems will find a few republicans to pay off for votes… so manchin goes down and a couple repubs fill in the blanks…. it will still pass… how else will dems buy votes for 2022
Is Tom still holding PLTR stock? I have been buying some today. He's in for the long term right?
Sorry Tom, this time the bond market knows exaactly what is coming next…and you will wait for a crash that won't happend 🙂
Look at thecorrelation between the fedfunds and the 10year bond yield…you always got a crash after a cycle of rate hikes combined with 10 year bond yield close the falling trendline (connecting all the tops of the yield hights)…
You should have stayed in Ukraina. You don’t seem like understanding economic evolution. You must have learned from Putin
Those strategy advice videos are interesting but in the end of the day if you buy quality companies at fair value, -10% FV or -30% FV is all good for you long term….if you see a well priced asset right now you should buy it even if it goes lower in March since……wait for it…..NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO RATES
<I totally agree with what you are saying….The crypto market is unstable now. Despite the bearishness, In the options market many option traders are still gaining. The price seems to be entering a long-term correction phase, and most likely, it will make investors disappointed and frustrating. There is more to this market than we currently understand. I am in profit now, I learned how to trade from youtubers and other expect traders especially my mentor Leroy Forbes, who taught me how to make trade and increase my crypto from 11btc to 27btc regardless of the crypto market (bulls or bears). It is yours and my opinion so people should make their own investment choices based on their own research…..
Your video production is getting better and better with every video you release!
Thanks for your insights, Tom. I’m holding my Apple stock, as their customers are sticky, their products are crazy good, they can freely raise or lower prices to fit supply/demand, and they pay dividends. I’m going to pick up some more Tesla on the dip—despite being a growth stock, I think they’re undervalued right now—people are going to be shocked when Austin and Berlin ramp to million+ output each, and China output continues to grow. As their capacity increases and their costs fall, they will be able to reduce prices to keep demand high. I’ll probably pull the trigger in the next few days, before rumors about Q4 results start the usual run-up. Not going to try to guess when the dip will bottom; if it keeps dropping for a few months, I’ll just ride it out.
Tom Bhai, pls cover MarketAxess, since you are talking about bond market, this would be interesting…
If you start putting things behind a paywall like that solving the money problem guy, I'll have to unfollow you too. Appreciate the quality work and videos, Tom!
Seriously, you're thinking that an interest rate hike is not baked into the markets yet?
If they raise rates short term national debt will take up more than US tax revenues. What happens when we can't service interest on debt? Will US default? That's what will be required if rates go up
Everybody keeps dunking on transitory, but do you really think 0 of the inflation rate is transitory? So for example, chip shortage is here to stay, port slowdowns are here to stay, used cars going up 40% a year is here to stay, etc.? A lot of the inflation rate is undoubtedly being caused by supply failures and/or shipping failures so it seems to me like every dunk on JPow is someone saying "we don't have any short term issues and these are all permanent systemic problems with capitalism from now on." Which I don't think anyone thinks so why bet that way, I think people are starting to bet their money based on their political wishes instead of their market reality.
Gonna probably buy more hmji and keep shorting the overleverage overegulated shitshow that known as the cannabis industry
Really liked your interview on Amit's channel, thanks for giving him chance, he has well over 100 likes, so looking forward to part 2 🙂
This channel would be BETTER if you didn't inject you dry attempt at comedy that ISNT funny.
If inflation is truly going ballistic bond yield should be higher. Why anyone wants negative yield on investment?
Money can only go into stocks and gold in a rising interest rate environment.
Nowhere else will be left.
Your work ethic is supreme. Always putting out content. Not BS fluff content but great content filled with substance.
I won't start investing seriously till June, next year for personal reasons. I plan to follow the leader, Tom! King of Fundamentals!
I don't think that waiting for growth stocks that have already corrected 60-70-80% to go lower is such a good plan.
Tom Nash your ramblings are of a mad man, that's why I listen to you, if you were completely sane like Joe Biden or Kamala Harris I don't know what I would do
remember that we spent 10 years after the financial crisis at interest rates below pre 2008 and inflation was also at record lows. I dont think you can control inflation through monetary policy anymore.
Get in the Zone Autozone! I think this company fits Tom’s criteria. I may be wrong I may be inaccurate.
“Created an illusion of a solution” I think that’s my favorite saying now 🙂
The only stock I would buy before the big crash would be Tesla stock but even that I’m holding off until Elon is done selling.
so you're saying: buy Tesla? They are a money printing machine by now, so should be good with inflation?
What's the hangup with this bill? It's 2 Trillion over 10 years for stuff we actually need. The Fed printed 5 trillion last year.. No?
Tom you’re becoming my favorite YouTuber lately thanks for the tips and the laughs!