In this video I will be taking a look at Google stock, and performing a high level initial DCF valuation to examine whether the current price of Google shares is close to where I see the real value of the stock.
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Okay, so let's talk about Google stock. You all ask for me to do a DCF on Google Here it is I'm on stock MVP As you know, the platform I Use now daily and we're going to take a look at Google First of all, let's look at the cards. Uh, this stock, by the way is actually performing quite horribly, but not as bad as some other stocks we looked at recently down 37 over the past year over the past three months. What's the performance? like? 11 down? I Mean yeah.

All Tech is taking a bidding right now Google is included. Let's look at my own cards here. and of course you can customize your own cards. My own are on the screen right now.

Revenue is 281 billion dollars. It's growing 17.9 percent over the past year 170 of the past five years. So we're looking at Double Digit growth, which is very nice for company of this size. It's quite impressive actually.

Net income is 67 billion, ebitda is 94 billion, and cash and cash equivalents are 22 billion. That is on par 29 billion. so very close. I Mean it doesn't have a lot of that compared to the cash.

A little bit over, but not something dramatic, especially given the fact that it has three and a half times more assets right here than liabilities right here. So three and a half times more assets and abilities and very close, almost one to one cash and uh and debt and insanely profitable company we know about. You know, the Google cloud services, the the YouTube business, the search business I mean the advertising business Google has a lot of business. A lot of moving.

Parts If you look at institutional shareholding of Google you're going to find out that this is one of the stocks that institutions love. 63 Institutional ownership. Let me just make it bigger so you guys can see it on the screen. 63 is exactly like where you want it to be accompanied this size.

Although this is the little bit alarming part. as you can see, over the past couple of years, they've been slowly criming their position. This is the holding of Institutionals. As you can see, they've been going down.

this is two thousand This Is 2020, 2021, 2022 So just two years ago, they were at 4 billion point four shares. Right now, they're at 3.7 billion. So there are trimming. That's not.

that's not, you know. sugarcoat it. There are trimming. Uh, there's more Insider selling than than buying.

although this is Google so it's not really that important of a metric. Everybody knows what Google is. Let's run the quick. DCF And let's see where it's at right now.

Real quick. So current price is 90.61 Today it's down half a percentage point. It's pretty much flat. So uh, let's use the you know 15 ebitda growth in five percent.

The Precision grow Five percent Capex growth. Let's populate. Let's give it a 10 discount rate over four percent lockdown growth rate. And okay, so what I Get here.

it's 284.81 which is 214 undervalued which is absolutely insane. Now we can make the assumptions a little bit crazier and more conservative in you know, to make life a little bit harder for Google. Let's give it 10 growth, 10 depreciation number, position, 10 Capex, and then 12 discount rate Populate calculate even if we go by the most trick metrics I can imagine which is 12 discount rate at 10 Capex every year increase. Let's do five percent ebitda growth.
Let's say Google Grows By five percent ebitda. That's it. It's still undervalued by 21, so no matter how you spin it now, Google is according to this DCFS And the value. Don't forget though, it doesn't mean it's undervalued because you have to look at the Macro, The macro is not good.

We're heading into recession Google has a lot of businesses depending on Advertising which depend on you know, kind of a B2c business. so if we're going to recession, ad revenue is going to come down, it's already coming down with YouTube So be careful. This is just the first stage if you're interested in this. This is the time where you dive deeper and you find out about the company.

But you know, if you want to run your own DCF and research yourself, go to stock. MVP We already sold out the first 1000 members and if you're just kind of curious, just try it out. For 14 days we have a refund, no questions asked. If you don't like it for any reason, let me know.

We'll refund you immediately. See you next video.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

23 thoughts on “Google stock: more upside in 2023?”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gobe San says:

    EXPECT THE BEST
    NO STOCK
    NO EXCHANGE
    YOU GOT IT?
    AND+AMEN

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ari Gutman says:

    Google is going to come back eventually and when it does, we are going to have great returns… think about this GOOG makes 70% of its rev from advertising and with so many companies cutting their ad budgets it hurts Google, but when the economy comes back and Google only improves their targeting advertising … game over…

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ingolfur Arnar Kristjansson says:

    it's one thing that few people count on and it's a lawsuit they have against NLST that could cost them the single biggest fine in the usa according to knowledgeable people and could affect the price?
    But what do I know?

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars CadetSparklez says:

    thanks!

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Don Light says:

    google is the craziest money machine ever

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars peter pattermann says:

    Tom , Programming of the AI system is basically stealing favoring the Gov. Should this continue we (including U ) are all out since none con win this game, sad to see this happening.

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Thomas Patti says:

    What’s your thoughts about the current movement in US government looking to breaking up google ? How would this affect Google stock?

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Slick Riq says:

    Tom! You forgot to do your “Google Google Google” song 🙂

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ulises Bernales says:

    Let's buy everything

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars CJT Golf says:

    Tom you got me really thinking about buying some 12-16 month exp calls for google sometime around Feb-march

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ernest Okot says:

    Tom, that dashboard UI can be way better. Too much space in the cards

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars thatshitcray says:

    I found this boring. But wait.. It's not anyone's fault but mine, and I can't fault the content. From what little I know, you're providing real value. But the reason I'm commenting, liking, and subscribing is because the way you're delivering it is fantastic, it may be only minor details but the wobbling social icons, the drawings at the top.. Fantastic! This is quality, and for those that think that small detail isn't important, no, this is clever and engaging, the little details make a big difference. Well done Tom.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ominollo says:

    Tom, it’s very hard to read anything on your screen…

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kelvin Lim says:

    Is Stock MVP free service or need to pay? Thanks.

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Alex de Gaston says:

    254B net equity, 60B projected net income for 2023, 7.0% growth thereafter, and fair target valuation at est 857B on est 12.7B shares outstanding at year end 2023; or 67.50 per share.

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ernesto Bonilla says:

    Oh man… missed the offer… won't you extend it for Chrismas?

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dana Mills says:

    Feeling good. Bought another 100 last week. Selling weekly options on 300.😊

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tom H says:

    My god these bots in the comment section are ridiculous

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Alfredo Hernandez says:

    I'm sure we have alot of people interested in Mid Cap stocks that can possibly do we'll pre and post recession. Mid Cap stocks will run a hell of a lot higher and faster then most of the mega caps….

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Alexander Obst says:

    I actually did a DCF on Alphabet on my own. I calculated with 12,060,000,000 shares (the sum of A and C shares), so kinda doubled than what I see on your screen. So your result should be wrong imo.

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars WJ King says:

    Knowing what Twitter has done, and that Google has done the exact same thing, I simply can't bring myself invest in the name.
    One thing I do admire is that the stock is fairly stable. After the past 2 years, I have felt seasick the entire time.

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Alan Yan says:

    Holy shit it's botland in the comments

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Susan L says:

    Bots are going nuts these days.

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