Greetings: everyone welcome back to another market. Open live stream. Today is my birthday, which marks one year from the gamestop crisis that led gamestop, going to like 480 a share only for robinhood to halt trading on the stock. Current meme says that, because robin hood missed on earnings terribly and guided like 25 percent lower, the best thing robin hood could do right now is halt trading on their own stock.

It's been going straight down, but anyway, folks we got to talk about some news. That came out over the last 24 hours. I did a video earlier this morning around 4am, looking at six different indicators that you should be tracking uh we're going to be talking about one of those in a little bit more detail. But if you want to see the other five make sure to watch that video uh from earlier today, really good i'd pay attention to all six of those things, write them down and watch for those changes.

Because, in my opinion, when you get changes in the six indicators, we got ta watch for in this economy. That's your buy indicator. That's that's when it's time to buy uh but anyway, so uh just my opinion. Let's talk about a little bit of news that just came out uh here recently and that was that uh core pce personnel, personal consumption expenditures came in at 4.9 percent slightly higher than expected.

This is another uh version of cpi readings that the federal reserve likes to use. They prefer pce over cpi, but obviously they look at cpi as well, and one of the reasons the market actually moved slightly to the positive side in it or after the report came out, in my opinion, has to do with the fact that if you go to The actual report, which most people don't actually go to the report, but that's okay! That's what you that's! What you're here for uh you go over here to what happened in december and you actually had what feels like, potentially a little bit of softening on the month over month data. So, the month over month, data right here came in at 0.4, which would be indicative of a an annualized inflation rate of approximately 4.8 relative to this 7.2 that we've had in the prior two months. I believe that has led to a little bit of temporary optimism.

I do believe that a much bigger catalyst is actually going to be the cpi release on february 10th. However, you this data could be setting up for a little bit of a head fake because we did see uh, omicron fears start really taking off in december, and some spending pull back because of omicron. So personally, i think it wouldn't be surprising for us to have a little bit of a temporary slowdown in inflation, which could potentially be a little bit of a fake out uh to where we end up uh. You know having worse inflation in february again, which won't get reported until march 10th, which is going to be right before the march 16th meeting, so in other words, if if inflation is kind of done, let's see it hasn't really gone.

That, sir, let's see if inflation has kind of done, one of these and then the summer of last year we had a little bit of a void here and then we skyrocketed on inflation. I wouldn't be surprised that omicron does a little bit of this and then the the question is: do we go this way? Do we go this way? The hope is that we go this way right, that's the hope, the green line we want to go down uh the the concern would be obviously any kind of inflection. Of i mean this would be devastating if we had rates actually or inflation rates, go up at even a faster pace, but somewhere here is a moment we're going to want to pay attention to the inflation rate on, but anyway, that's potentially a reason. We had a little bit of excitement in the market today.

To start with, is is this point four number here which is good? It's certainly worse than rotating the opposite direction. Now this morning, one of the things that i talked about had to do with apple, and i want to provide some additional clarity. Since there are some folks who are confused about what i said about apple. I said that apple has been dealing with worsening supply chain constraints.

However, apple themselves have started figuring out how to work through those issues better leading tim cook to say that it actually looked like supply chain constraints were expected to potentially be better in in q1. Here the first quarter of 2022 - and i say that because technically q1 of 2022 is apple's q2, which is really confusing. But it's worth seeing exactly what he said in the transcript. Because there's a lot of confusion around this and i like clearing up confusion, see in the transcript he said uh.

Well, we talked about it on a year-over-year basis in terms of their revenue, growth or the chief financial officer. Here says and as tim was saying, we still expect significant supply constraints, but less than what we've seen in december. Okay. So let's come back to that for a moment, because this is pretty critical here over here.

They talk about ipad, where they talk about how supply chain constraints have held back sales on the ipad, and here they do mention the following. Take a look at this. They say we experienced supply constraints that were higher than in the september quarter, so in other words, they're kind of drawing this picture that that maybe supply cons, chain constraints potentially peaked here in december, where, if this was september here's december and that maybe things will get Better in the first quarter, which would be great, however, it is worth noting that this level, what this arrow is pointing to, is still being called a significant uh disruption. That is, that is their word.

That's not me, like you know, some people are like. Oh there's kevin trying to spin a narrative like no i'm. I really. I want the market to go up.

I i promise you, revenue of everything goes down uh in a recession, but, like i don't want to go in a recession, i want to go into the moon. I want to. I want to see the indicators that the red flags are gone and then we're going to the moon. Just this morning i released a 35.

I think it was 35. Maybe it's like there's somewhere on that 35 minute lecture in the in all of to all course. Members talking about the psychology of market cycles macro economic cycles and how, when we're at the top or the bottom of economic cycles and when we transition. That is when we come out of the bottom or we turn at the top.

People get very angry because it's a huge change and there's obviously a whole lot more. But but it's very common when macroeconomic cycles shift uh, that emotions change and then strategizing for those is very, very critical and that's what we were talking about, but anyway uh and if you're interested in those programs or seeing that video or whatever. There is a coupon code that has expired today. It is my birthday after all, but but folks it is so critical to to, in my opinion, take your head out of your butt so to speak, because some people like to do that uh and and realize that they're still saying we still expect significant supply constraints.

That's huge sure, maybe a little bit of an inflection point, but wait a minute. When are we going to be solved with this when it? When is this actually going to turn into prices potentially coming down? Rather than going up? That's the big question for apple uh and the the other thing to consider regard when it comes to apple, which is also very rarely considered, is that apple is the biggest freaking company in the world. So when you look at one of their suppliers, i wrote this down here, st microelectronics, nv, which is uh, which apple is one of the major customers, for they provide chips for apple. They said literally today, they said they do not see a let up in the chip shortage before 2023.

So you know it's it's so easy to hate on facts, because you know people like to read titles and then draw a quick conclusion, because that's easy but then, when you actually dive in and you're like crap still expecting severe or significant disruptions at apple they're, the Biggest company in the world, so they should have the best priority in getting chips, which means everybody else could still suck, but even their suppliers are saying they don't think chip issues are going to get better until 2023. That is a problem that is dangerous and that that's just something to pay attention to now worth jumping over to uh the stock, because the stock's actually doing decently, along with the visa, and that's because consumer spending is up, and people see this as as bullish. For these companies - in other words oh yay - let's, let's all go through money at apple, uh or visa, because obviously spending's up people are spending more money. So these companies should do well and they're, probably best, positioned, well apple's, certainly one of the best positions for navigating supply chain constraints.

That's true, but what happens when and if apple, rather than becoming a flight to safety, becomes something where folks, like institutions start getting a little bit more nervous and then they start selling apple or the microsoft's. That is a situation we do not want to get to. So what i highly recommend you do, no matter what side of the fence you're on is pay attention to apple. We've got to make sure the uptrend on the apple stock, from the pain that we experienced on friday continues.

We got to make sure that these prices hold hold at 160 or potentially get better. The last thing we want to see is that we start breaking lower levels which, in my opinion, would be breaking under under the 150 levels. We start breaking some of these not ideal, certainly if we were to break 135 and we started breaking some of these supports also very very bad. Now s p 500 is still holding supports, so s p is just another one that you could take a look at.

It consistently hops off of uh the the 430 line. Again, if you do not have basic ta drawn on your charts, i i i think you'd make it a little oopsy-doopsies uh, but anyway you, you could clearly see the bounces towards the end of the day. Here. On the s p 500, one two: three four bounces here off of 430, look at the pre-market here: bounce bounce bounce off of 430.

break. What happens when we break technical analysis says we generally drop to the next level of support, not a surprise. 426. These lines have been here for months, they haven't changed and that's because they work really well.

In fact, at this point i should really just upgrade these lines. I guess i've kind of been a little lazy and haven't so i'm going to upgrade them really quickly, because these are quite powerful uh there we go i'll leave this one was a little thinner since the 430 is more appropriate. So we'll see we'll see how the day goes, keep in mind, usually you're, going to get folks like jim cramer uh at the beginning of the day playing the violin for us and i'm not. I don't want to be a bear.

I just always want you to be aware that there are red flags in our macro economic cycle, and these are red flags that we thought would go away. We thought inflation would be transitory right or maybe not. Maybe you didn't you might be thinking. I didn't think it was transferring that's fine, but it used to be that 60 of people thought inflation was going to be transitory and 40.

Didn't that scale has tilted so much so that i would say maybe 10 of people still think inflation is transitory right and that's. What's getting priced into the market is the fact that you're getting this realization now that doesn't mean we shouldn't have been investing the last year i mean if you thought, inflation was definitely going to be out of control uh, you know, starting at the end of 2020. You would have missed out on on the gains that were available in 2021 right uh. Now.

What do we expect for 2022? Well now, now the red flags are becoming a little bit more clear and apparent to everyone, and so that's that's. What's getting priced in now, jim cramer is playing the violin uh saying that no we're coming in for a soft landing that interest rates won't. Do anything that really, let's just wait for the supply chain, issues to to uh settle down! That's fine! We should wait for supply chain issues to settle down, but as long as consumers continue to pay higher prices, prices are going to continue to go up and that's the problem is consumers are not saying? No, so until consumers start saying no and prices start going down we're going to continue to see inflation. I kind of agree that i don't think rates are going to do anything, but that's not a good thing.

Jim, that's a bad thing. If jerome powell's like wow, damn we raised rates to 0.5 percent and it did nothing you know after six months or whatever they raise rates to one percent they're like oh, it did nothing. We still have an inflation problem. What's next two percent: three percent: it's a problem uh.

In fact, bank of america is coming out saying that they expect uh the peak of the federal funds rate to be around 2.75 to 3 percent bank of america had a pretty bearish outlook uh the problem with that is. If we go on over to the sep, let me grab the sap quickly. You better be a student of the fed in this environment, all right so s-e-p for december. It's a summary of economic projections, we're going to go to the whole chart here here we go all right.

So, let's see what it says here so for the long-run rate, the fed funds rate, the uh federal reserve had been projecting in december a longer run rate oops. That's not a highlighter longer run rate here of about 2.5 percent or a range of 2.3 to 2.5 percent. In the longer run. Bank of america is coming out and saying yeah, no we're thinking 2.75 to 3.

i'll, put b of a right here, uh, which is obviously a little bit higher, so the market's you know potentially gon na - be a little bit nervous about that. But we'll see we'll see now uh, let's jump on over, to see how we're getting ready to open. So we talked about pce. We talked about uh apple, some clarity.

Here, we've got the dow down almost a quarter of a percent. S p is pretty much flat at point: negative 0.02, nasdaq, 0.22 to the upside oil, continuing to rise uh. The dollar had an incredible rally over the night brent's at 91. oil's at 88.3.

The the dollar did very well uh and they make sense because well, yields have been rising. The 10 year right now is sitting at uh, 1.82 and uh, and this is attracting a lot of investment into the u.s u.s dollar and that's exactly what we're seeing but uh anyway uh bitcoin. Let's go jump on over. Take a peek at bitcoin.

We're gon na. Go to our sponsor for today's video ftx us which you can sign up for and if you use the referral link, get 10 off your trading fees go to metkevin.com ftx us link down below, but anyway we see that crypto has been relatively stable. Uh for for about this is on the on the 30 minute chart here, uh, so rotating back uh to to really the beginning of the week, which is quite interesting. How we've been in this channel here we've had brief moments here of over selling but relatively stable, and usually when we're in these consolidation patterns.

There there's a concern that over time we will see a uh a breakout to uh to either side so just something to keep an eye on um. We'll obviously come back to this look at this a little bit more, but let's go out to the hour chart. This is these: are the sort of break ups or breakdowns that we're used to seeing and they come suddenly they come fast. You can see them pretty.

Clearly, the way the chart's set right now, uh and with this consolidation here, we're really setting up for either the up or down leg, move and that's everybody's sort of waiting for uh confirmation in terms of all right which direction we going. What are we gon na? Do what are we gon na do uh anyway uh? I i do wan na just reiterate and be very clear. Uh that uh apple and and people spending more money is uh is is not good. It is.

It is a sign of potentially more inflation to come. Just worth noting all right, so uh s p doing nicely right now up about point two: two percent: that's uh! That's actually a little bit of a boost over what the s p was showing on cnbc, having the s p, slightly flat, nasdaq up about one third of one percent uh we do have, i think arc is actually down in pre-market. No it's flat now good, okay arc went flat in pre-market here, and we have tesla rotating down about half a percent pre-market. Most of pre-market tesla was actually doing quite well.

It was um. Sorry, the coffee is at the perfect temperature right now, anyway, um yeah tesla tesla was up like 1.7 uh throughout much of uh, the uh evening, hours, uh and so was um. I mean apple was up like five to six percent. Oh that's cool! They give you little birthday balloons on twitter.

Take a look at this. I wanted to show something on twitter. Let me see if it does it again, look at that. I get birthday balloons today, that's cool uh, but i did want to want to say this really quickly.

Uh tom tom wrote, if you're not buying tesla at this price, you shouldn't be in the stock market in general, which i thought was kind of funny, because i i wrote agreed and and people are like. Oh, does this mean kevin's buying the dip yeah whatever, and so i had to write a clarity, post, uh quick note. Apparently some are missing the irony here i am out of the stock market. In other words, if you're not buying tesla stress, you shouldn't be in the stock market agreed, but you know that doesn't mean i don't want the market to go up.

Let me tell i just want to be critically clear here: people like well, why are you cheering when the market looks like? You know, there's good news, because i like a good economy, dude people don't like every youtube. Ad revenue goes down, uh, which i've owned. I've have been posting less videos, people people are funny they're like well kevin's, just posting videos to make more money. It's like i've, actually posted less videos in the last 30 days, uh on on youtube than i have for the last year in any month.

That's mostly because i'm working on the new course the path to wealth, uh but boy, oh boy, uh! You know good economies are nice, everybody wins in the good markets. It's the tough ones or the potential bear markets that you want to be a little bit more. Careful for uh, you know you don't want to be stuck like japan, where you end up investing in japan in the mid 90s and you don't break even for 20 years or what happened in the 1960s, where you don't break even for 16 years. If you invest at certain points in the or sorry early, 70s or uh, or you invest in the dot-com bubble and it's you know, 15 years before you break even or you invest in 2007 on the first dip, and it takes you five years to break even People are long-run investors until they realize that could potentially be on the horizon and and and all i'm all say.

All i must say is: where are we on the macro economic expansion cycle? You know noah here is saying lol. We aren't japan well, duh. Our economy is much stronger than japan uh. You know we still have growth populations.

Growth is slowing a little bit, but it's nothing like japan, where your population is straight up decline. Uh, don't get me wrong. I am all for trained america, but you know most of the examples i gave here: dot com bubble, oh a seventies, were u.s examples. Okay, three of the examples i gave were u.s examples you picked up on the one example that i used of japan.

It can happen in the u.s too, all right, uh anyway, uh steve says we're in 2003 to 2004. uh. That kind of implies more mid-cycle. I hope so.

I hope so all right folks. We got the uh the bell coming up, tesla rotating positive here. So, let's see if this ends up being another fake out rally or if we end up getting uh uh, you know sustained enthusiasm to finish the week. I would like some sustained enthusiasm throughout the week, although what we've seen is when we get a rally at the beginning of the day, we get a sell-off at the end.

When we get a sell-off at the beginning, we get a rally towards the end that that inverse is pretty typical, so this could be setting up for for the shorts to load up on this again in the cnbc real-time exchange of the big boards. It's online sports setting and gaming company super group celebrating listening to expat at the nasdaq, the mark, sean weather, holocaust education foundation, okay uh, you know it actually indicates that we're only like 35 to 40 green. There uh - and i just got an update here - that apparently uh i i this is quite interesting. A major bridge in pittsburgh has collapsed hours before president biden is scheduled to visit the city to tout his signature, bipartisan infrastructure law.

I hate to say it: usually i'm not that jaded, but that sounds absolutely rigged. Like really hours before you're gon na come talk about infrastructure, a bridge collapses. Wait, let me guess nobody got hurt too. I don't know, i don't know.

I don't know that one, but i hope nobody got hurt. I don't know whether it's rigged or not. I hope nobody got hurt uh, but uh yeah uh bridge collapses under heavy snow. Oh okay, okay, ten people did get hurt: okay, but non-life threatening.

That's good. Okay! Well, that makes me feel a little bit better, but that is either very odd coincidence or no it's us, but whatever uh anyway uh, you know, 10 people got hurt, but nobody's seriously injured is about the story, so i just want to clarify that uh. Maybe i'm being a little overly jaded, but anyway uh nice green right out of the gate. Here, s p arc g q, q, q, nice, green rotation - i imagine a lot of that is going to be uh or oh, my god, uh.

What the heck hold on a second here - um - oh okay, yeah! No, that that hasn't fully updated. Yet, oh there we go okay, so uh anyway uh. So we got uh visa. Look at that visa jump right here.

That is a nice little rally. We're getting here! So nice rally popping off on visa uh, looks like apple nope apple rotating down. This is my concern. Is that these these, these rallies get sold off and as soon as we get a little bit of green, that's where the shorts make sure you know have the opportunity to uh to to dump uh.

You know: let's, let's see what uh, what uh the hood of the robin's doing over here: uh. Oh no, robin hood's, rising! That's honestly, a good thing! I have a yolo option that i'm going to be closing on, but uh that's good to see. Uh see robin hood. Moving up here.

You've got owlette uh, going five percent to the downside here that one's just getting smoked x, bang down a five percent lucid look at this lucid heading down almost another five percent - that's incredible! Neo wait! Where's neo neo's over here matterport matterport's about to be under eight dollars. Folks, yikes neo, uh neo's mixed at the open, okay, financials, look at jpm move down. Folks, look at a jpm move down. That's that is not good.

You know people are making videos about how? Oh, you want to be safe. Investing in the stock market during an inflationary time buy the financials folks be freaking, careful like seriously be careful because the the the market does not have to uh. You know reward financials, they will say: oh, but inflation is good for stocks right, not necessarily not necessarily because inflation, while in general, should be good for stocks in real estate. If it's coupled with the federal reserve getting more and more aggressive because their actions aren't doing anything, it's bad.

That would be bad news. So uh pay close attention. Okay, apple rotating down enthusiasm of the morning, already being sold off this early. That is quite an early sell-off.

I was not expecting that now, keep in mind a lot of retail buyers buying in the pre-market stop buying in the damn pre-market. It is the worst time to buy uh i i don't buy, i rarely buy in pre-post market uh. I would say i'm probably three times as likely to get screwed buying in the pre-market than if i just buy when the damn market's open. I hate to say it.

I hate to say it, but anyway i i again. I want to be very clear with the biases that i have. I have very few shorts in the market right now, uh. I only have a lucid short.

That's all. I have it's like a 30k loose, it's short and then my robin hood put thing which i'm going to close uh the uh lucid uh lucid, is rotating down more down about 9.4 percent right now, uh yeah! These these candles are getting worse right now loose. It's getting worse, neo's about to break 20. This is gon na be an all-time low.

Matterport is trending down, even more so is rivien. Upstart is a momentum, slash trade stock and so seeing this one fall generally doesn't bode well for momentum. Folks nvidia! Oh my gosh! 215., look at this folks look at the fibonacci. We are literally following.

If it's not a perfect fib, it's really it's not perfect, but but look at it over here. Okay, we draw the line from the bottom here to the top look at that. We sit at that 38 too. Well, i drew it upside down idiot, but whatever i i think.

I've actually mentioned that before that i drew this upside down. It doesn't really matter. Well, we um. We, we fell over here.

Uh with the upside down. Fib is working. Uh and - and so here we had a channel here - we rode our support. Uh bounced here broke bounced off here collapsed to here, and so the concern is now that we're rubber banding uh at this level.

The concern is that the next stop could be 199 for nvidia. Thank you by the way for all the uh happy birthdays. I really appreciate you all rock. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you, and uh apple is, is now only up about 2.5. This is one of these six indicators. If you have not watched the video, which is probably a good chance, you have not watched it because i posted at 4am.

I was i've been up since 2am, studying researching. I do this. I don't sleep a lot. I slept three hours.

It was a problem uh, but uh. That's what i do uh you know i see like lately. There's been this trend and - and i try not to get frustrated by it, but there's been this trend of people watching like what i say about the federal reserve, and you know i spend you know how many endless hours a day studying the federal reserve and they'll Watch my video on the fed and then they'll post a video just regurgitating what i said in in their own words, in the same order that i talk about it and then it's like come on man, but that's okay, i'm not gon na get salty. That's how youtube works, okay, uh, but the downside of that is uh, like the other way, is actually smart.

What the other creators do? I'm not saying everybody, but it's smart, because if i say something and then i get hate for it, the others know not to say that if i say something and i get praise for it like the first titanic, video or whatever everybody shares it and loves it Right so it sucks being on the frickin front lines: uh. Okay, s, p heat map, look how red that just turned look at that we're we're now we're basically turning 80 to 90 right here. That's not what we want. Ah, oh gosh, this this was my indicator of of of potential problems.

Is that you can't you can't just yolo into apple right now, uh i it makes me nervous. Uh, a firm is, is selling down after after the uh, the visa partnership. Uh uh talk about how how good the debit card spend and such is going right. It's really really incredible: uh neo folks, down 4.7.

Ah robin hood actually recovered a couple percent uh. I i don't think it will all day. I could be wrong, though this this is the difficult thing. This is a problem with short-term options like trying to time it, but this this initial by the dip here look, i i made a mistake buying robin hood.

Okay, i made a huge mistake buying robin hood but uh. I know i i well i can't say i know i don't think it's gon na get better any time soon. Um lewis, it's down seven percent right now, my goodness matterport down. Look at that! Matterport broke.

Eight, this is terrible. You know somebody somebody mentioned they're, like oh kevin, you were, you were just kind of like talking about how it's possible and while matt report was at 13., how matterport could go down to eight dollars, seven or eight dollars, and it's like wasn't expecting it to happen Within five days and nancy pelosi's husband, screwed roblox, no dude, it's jerome powell, screwed roblox holy crap dude roblox is half half of what nancy pelosi's husband paid. Oh my gosh. Ah we will just so you know we will be having another course.

Member live stream today, uh in the course member the course member live stream today is going to be dedicated to uh out of the money, put options which tend to be very expensive. If you sorry tend to be very inexpensive, if you look in the correct places and can serve as a recessionary hedge, so we're going to be talking about that in detail, going through some samples and going through what i think might be some potential uh hedge tools, Because remember, whether you're in the stock market or whether you're in cash hedging yourself to the to a market downside is not a bad idea, because if you do have a big market downside, it gives you more cash to buy the dip with it. When and if things continue to fall, right uh, this is why i bought. I spent three million dollars buying s arc in november.

Now i was an idiot and listened not to my gut but but to community the community getting mad at me for having the short position, people thought i was driving down the market by having a swap position, which is what sarc is uh and - and i didn't Hold on to it, i wish i had, because if i did that i would have been up, you know a million point two dollars right now in that position, but woulda coulda shoulda, it's very imp, trick. Okay. This is another thing from the psychology money group. When you have those woulda coulda showed us write them down or put them on a little post-it note.

You should all have little post-it notes. I actually prefer the larger ones write it down, put it and pull it off, put it in a drawer, and then that way you can have a collection of all your screw-ups in that drawer and then anytime. You think about that negative thought again. You just tell yourself in your head, nope nope, i already have it written down.

I don't have to remind myself of it warren buffett. Does that too is really really important? You do not get yourself caught up in in your in like losses or mistakes, because oh apple's going back up a little bit because what happens then? Is you uh uh? You potentially start trying to gamble your way back, uh, very dangerous, but anyway uh a little bit of a u-turn here on apple right now, which is good. I do want to hit the news as well, although we did start with the news visa still pushing down a little bit apple, trying to push back up bouncing off about roughly 163 here uh triple uh. Let's see sq qqq up uh up about 1.43 you've got affirms only up about half percent right now, so still seeing that sell down here on a firm.

Unfortunately, if we go to end phase, it got an alert that this was down about three percent yep. It is uh just over two percent. Cardano is about to break a dollar. This is a huge line for cardano and we have been rubber banding around it for a while uh.

Oh robin hood, just had a nice recovery, not so good. If you didn't close out your put yet um, this is the the fate of the ko eat. You up, uh matterport's, still sitting at 7.76, lucid uh, plummeting, absolutely plummeting. Nine percent to the downside on lucid uh, not good uh cloudflare is uh down about three percent.

Today, wow 77 tesla folks, oh my gosh tesla might actually fall under yep. There you go sam says it might actually fall under 800. Here that is incredible. Uh! Okay! You got to be careful with this one shawshank uh.

So the issue with this okay - because i i agree with you - i i agree with you, but but there's a problem - there's an asterisk with this okay. So what you've stated is: don't blame the market blame the investors buying absolute garbage stocks that are hyped okay, so so there are two things well, there are a few things here. First of all, even quote: unquote garbage stocks like lemonade, which i've been performing terribly, have intrinsic value. Lemonade has a billion dollars in basically free cash sitting on their balance sheet beyond their liabilities, and that uh lemonade has a lot of freaking cash around uh and, and they are a great company they're, just not a profitable company right now.

They are also in a potentially unprofitable business. Their path to profitability is questionable right and so lemonade. Don't get me wrong had an insane momentum movement. The darn thing ran to like.

I think it was like 170. At one point: that's stupid! That's stupid! That's fomo! That's dumb lemonade at 55, i didn't think was terrible. Now i sold my lemonade like 65 to 70 and took options profits in between uh, so so i'm net up on lemonade, uh and i'm glad i'm out of it, but some of these companies do have intrinsic value. Now.

That does not mean that lemonade cannot go. Have where it is now it could go to 15 or it might be like 29, an hour or whatever it could go to 15.. That's just like matterport, you know, matterport is not a garbage company. Matterport is a phenomenal company, but it could go to three dollars.

It could be a penny stock and that's because in bear markets things correct to the opposite side. You get fomo on the way up when things get ridiculous and then you get basically just f on the way down, fear uh where and things do oversell, but that does not mean uh uh. You know we're we're for sure at a bottom james cramer's calling the bottom uh, but then again i feel like jim cramer's, always playing the violin that we're at the bottom uh, you know, remember, buy bear stearns by bear stearns at 50. You'll be fine.

Your money is good with bear stearns. Okay, in case you don't remember that reference. It went to ten dollars six months later, which was one-fifth of the value when it got bought out by. I think it was jp morgan, but anyway you can look that clip up on youtube and i mean, like people, make mistakes, so i don't want to like bag on jim for making a mistake.

I'm just i just want to say be careful. The popular thing - and this is something for you to know too - this is critical - i'm all about this, because it's part of the psychology on youtube and on twitter and on the news it pays to be a bull. It pays to be a bull, more people come to your fund, more people, uh, invest in your products or or whatever more people watch you more people like you, more people, say nice things about you. More people spread your name.

Everything is better when you say good things: you want thousands of followers on twitter, go on twitter every single day and talk about how you bought the dip. You're still buying the dip, because tesla's going to the moon. That's all you have to do to get followers on twitter. You say bad about twitter or tesla.

On twitter. You get you'll get reamed, okay, it is very, very unpopular. So when you consider that psychology, you are going to get a social media bias and news bias like media buys to the upside, always it pays to be a ball uh, okay anyway. So i cannot believe that lucid is uh is, is down uh nine point: eight! Six percent - that's incredible! I mean it's! It's 25 uh! That's that's insane! Well, my put on that one doubled.

Okay! Let me go uh to uh a little bit of this. I'm gon na just grab the term. I wan na see what the uh, what the suits are saying. Let's check in with the suits.

How long have i been saying? Lucid was gon na crash and i was one of the first like excited folks about lucid. I went in heavy at like 1170 on this thing and i held this thing through the crazy rides uh, but but i don't have any lucid now, because the the insanity of where we went was just not so anyway. Sorry - and i was look - i bought robin hood. I was wrong on robin hood right, so i could be right and wrong.

I just tried to be right more than i'm wrong anyway, uh, okay, listen to this one! This is an interest. This is the very first update from the suits here: okay, uh, okay, uh. Let me wait quickly. Just on psychology.

Somebody says you're right kev. I run an instagram page for crypto and i was telling everyone a drop is coming, be ready. Everyone flipped out on me and they asked what's going on. That's that's literally uh uh! It's it's this folks! It's this right! Here! Look! Look on screen right now, like i don't! If you're in, like listen only mode! Please please! Please look! Look at the face right here see this.

This face. Look at this guy that guy's pissed. You know why he's pissed, because it's emotions see when you start getting selling fever right before the blood on the streets, where everybody's freaking, the f out, look at the face. They chose to put there it's a really good cartoon people get pissed.

Nobody wants to hear that. Okay, just saying uh anyway. Okay, what were the suits, saying? Okay, investor investors, to take some chips off table after high drama week? Okay, so before i read this uh in fairness, kramer on cnbc was talking about this morning. How uh institutional investors are 10 less exposed to the market now than they previously were.

So this is nets uh, so they're, 10 out of the market, basically more out of the market than they had been uh. We don't you know, kramer's, saying that's a sign of the bottom. A lot of people are like that's a sign of the turn right uh. I talked about that.

You really got to watch the video from this morning, but i talked about this in the video this morning too, and then i want to read what these suits are saying here, but uh really watch those six indicators for this morning. But you know people keep, keep sending me pictures of this on twitter and they're like but kevin, but kevin. The rsi is oversold. It's we're we're obviously in the indicator say we're oversold yeah.

We were oversold when the s p dropped 10 before it dropped another 30.. Okay, just saying uh, okay, okay, so just be careful. Okay, make up your mind in terms of what what what strategy you're going to play with and and write down when you're going to buy back in you don't want to be out of the market for the long term. That's a big mistake.

Uh, anyway, fixed income, investors are tired, profit taking and rate locking may be the path of least resistance in the treasury market. Today, okay, that's in the treasury. However, that's because of the high drama week is a hawkish fed, flattened the treasury yields curve to the lowest level since, before the pandemic, that's bad by the way. Uh.

The move may inspire some investors to take chips off the table ahead of the redund resumption of fedspeak in the week ahead. Okay, fed speak is the period after the fomc meeting, where all the board members start going on the tv interviews and they're like yeah. Do you think i think things are getting better? I think things are getting worse and then you get the dubs and the hawks come out. Uh.

Am i waiting for march 2020 lows? No folks, the answer is not a number. The answer is not a number that you're looking for. We could go past march 2020 lows if we go into a recession which people think is insane, but remember we had an infinite bailout at the bottom of march 2020. uh.

We could easily fall way below that unless we get a fed bailout right. So you got ta pay attention. The bed and cpi is your buy signal anyway. My opinion fed speak is going to be interesting because the dubs and the hawks will come out we'll see but anyway uh that one okay volatility profit taking has already has been seen already in early new york trading after lower than expected print blah blah profit taking Yep u.s stocks torn yeah, u.s stocks are torn between apple hope and inflation, fears, uh apple, giving nasdaq an advantage.

Chevron is getting knocked after it was unable to fully benefit from rising oil prices. Yeah transporting it's problem too uh blah blah blah uh yeah. Okay. Well, not not too much on that particular bench.

All right, we'll keep hunting. Let me go just take a quick peek and get an update here as to what the sticks are doing here. Great depression coming people will be very depressed when, when the market goes down a lot more see, here's here's the issue. Okay, i just want to say this: do you want to go like if, if we go into a bear market - and you spend the whole way down trying to buy the dip when you get to that lower half you're going to be out of money? So some people like but kevin you've always been mr by the dip yeah.

That's because we didn't have glaring red flags of a macroeconomic shift. Whatever uh, okay spy has turned negative uh s. P 500 is actually down point four percent. Now that's crazy! That's a complete u-turn from what we had uh when we opened volatility index up apple uh apple is holding on over here and so is uh.

So is a firm trying to hold on and not not fall more google's, basically flat at 25.88, which how long has it been here at 25.88 um? Well, i guess it was last at 25.88 in july. So really it really took off in 2021. 2021 was a great year for google. Okay, lucid, not as bad as it was lucid, has recovered a slight little bit here.

It's still down 8.5 percent, but it is trying to bounce off at 25 64. Here arkamoto is almost a penny stock. Look at that, it bounced off five dollars again: five under five dollars: your penny stock neo, oh my gosh neo's at 19.49! Well, folks, you need to know this if the u.s uh - and i should quickly say today - is my birthday. Thank you for those of you still wishing me happy birthday.

Yes, that doesn't mean there's a coupon expired. Look, it's simple! The price goes up over time. That's it! You need lifetime access. So you know when, when i, when, when i buy back in you're gon na know, uh we'll be talking about it a lot, but anyway uh here's the thing about china.

We got ta talk about china if the u.s goes into a recession which can start as a paper recession of gdp decline, and then, when the fed doesn't bail out the paper recession, we will go into a real recession. We had a big debate about this and the course member chat too. The difference between like paper recession, the real recession, how one could lead to the other anyway uh if we go into a recession, which i hope we do not. I i like i said i do not want to go into a recession.

Incomes falter. We lose time it sucks. China's probably going to be way worse off. Uh china is, is struggling so much right now that they are stimulating the economy they are doing.

They are cutting rates. Okay, they are cutting rates because they're so worried about the defaults that started with evergreen evergrand was not the iceberg. Evergrand is just the fact that there is ice in the ocean. You know it's not the iceberg, it's just it's just adding to the pain, it's making the water cold, so to speak for the titanic, right uh, which which could worsen the downside.

But i do think that uh - and this is why i've been so nervous about chinese stocks for, for the last, you know two or three months, i've just not been in them is. I worry that that the downside could be more outsized for chinese stocks, because the chinese consumer is a lot weaker than the us consumer. If i had to ban on economy right now, i would 100 bet on the us economy uh. You know for the long term way more than i would bet on the chinese economy uh, especially with the evergrand overhang.

But again, if the u.s goes into a recession, the world's asked. That's it just saying: uh, you know for the short term, somebody's moving into an oil etf, wondering if it's okay to hang out over there look, i i can't give financial advice. You all know that personally i i'm just so unaware of what moves the commodities markets. I i won't invest in them.

If i were to invest in the commodities markets, i would only invest in them with a stop loss. That is the only way i would invest in commodities and i would probably use a trailing stop so uh, you know i'd set like a three four percent trailing stop. So that way, if we keep moving up, you know oil goes to a hundred dollars. You're able to take those profits, but i would absolutely stop out of oil uh.

You know it's. It's been the flight to safety flight to safeties, don't last long uh. They, you know, fly like things that used to be a flight to safety turn into the next capitulation stage, uh, which that's why i'm watching apple again watch my video this morning, like apple's recovering right now, which is good, i mean this is just the minute chart. So you get these insane vacillations, i'm more worried about the second half of the day.

I hope we end the day like net up, because that would be a good sign. People could chill over the weekend. Maybe emotions could calm down a little bit. You know maybe crypto could rise again, uh.

Thank you to the sponsor medkevin.com, my or my kevin.com ftx us uh, for helping us track those crypto prices, but anyway, okay, uh. Let's, let's get a little bit more news, that's going on! I do want to just quickly take a peek at some individual uh sticks before we do specifically uh. A firm has now gone negative uh that this this is okay. This is that's a bad, that's bad! Why is it bad? It's bad because it means we had great news on a firm from visa and what happened after great news.

They sold off. It gave people an opportunity to short and to sell and to get out which people instantly did upon market open. Bad sign apple is still right now being seen as a flight to safety is dogecoin a good hedge. No crypto is not a hedge cryptos, absolutely not a hedge, not financial advice, but crypto is not a hedge yeah.

Somebody here says: institutional investors are waiting for for the fear to end the fear ends when jay powell says the fear is over. Somebody here donated five dollars to say meet paper hand, kevin uh, shout out to you smart fusion, tesla, let's see here. Oh, look at that tesla's trying to get back into the oh. It's back in the eights tesla went to uh 808., hey like an 808 drum, isn't that in an avr lavigne song anyway, we fell to 9.72 there.

Now, even though we're at 808, we should we're still down on the day. Oh see, lucid is going back to lucid trying to recover these little false bounces they're getting sold. Man, look at matterport, all-time, freaking lows right now, all time ever freaking lows happening right here on matterport, great damn company, don't have a penny in it right now, because it's too risky and look. I know that was a u-turn, because on wednesday i thought we might get short covering the fact that we got more shorts and not short, covering is news.

First of all, because usually hedged events, we get shorts, reduce their positions. The fact that it went in the opposite direction was of another red flag and - and i think it's stupid not to react to red flags that that are a sign of a macro change, not like day-to-day dips. Like the market dips on the election fears, man buy, the dip, buy the dip on february, buy the dip in. May you know this.

This was all nonsense, because the macro news was positive, got ta, know what drives the market. Dude amc is at 13 and plummeting holy crap. Oh my gosh uh beyond meat. Fifty four dollars and face 114 shift technologies of buck 85..

We're i mean some of these are just dragging the anchor along the floor. Uh tesla's still down three percent: hey! That's my area code, the 805.. You know i never thought i'd. Uh i'd see tesla at the 805, again uh, you know and they just installed a mega pack facility in the 805.

Oh wow dino just donated 50 to say dude. If it wasn't for you working like a robot, i wouldn't be as wealthy. You got this and we were. Thank you.

Man. Thank you. Coca-Cola is the safest stock right now says: uh chrysler's 93 were you born in 93. The early 90s were very nice.

What is coke ko right, yeah uh yeah, look at that! That's nice! It's a it's a buffet stock! It has become a flight to safety stock. Look when it became a flight to safety stock. Oh hold on. What's cnbc you're reporting? Yes, these are the january final numbers, so we take the mid numbers.

We toss them and we now make these. The final read: 68.8 expected well. 67.2. So we take that mid level, three which was 68.8 and we move it down to 67.2 sequence.

That is a miss on consumer sentiment, not a year, all right we're going to pull off this uh. So what was i going to say? Oh, oh yeah, yeah! Oh yes, so be careful with the flight to safeties, though uh, okay, so uh yeah, because the flight to safety does not last forever corsair dips getting bought visa flight to safety again with the flight to safety. But yes, visa is also that uh this chart does not say the corsair dips are being bought, maybe on the one, no uh, but thank you for the high dollars, i'm at the point where i just want to start shorting every stock. Okay, look i hate.

I hate that i hate this market man. I hate this uh look ba the dip okay becomes. This is an evolution; okay, it's normal by the day. Well, first of all hold on you go this.

This is your sort of sentiment right, yolo, uh, yolo, uh fomo by the dip. This is sort of the chart of sentiments, yolo fomo by the dip, then uh you get to uh, damn uh and and dip keeps dipping dip keeps dipping. Okay. Then you get to sell, then you get to short.

Then you get to bottom. Okay and right now i think the vast majority of retail is here. Sorry, you can't see that there - oh, my gosh, uh dude, who called kevin paper hand, is too lazy to make decisions for himself. Oh thank you for that taylor yeah.

I do wonder how reits until fear is gone. I got ta make my video on real estate. I i don't like flight to safety stocks. Let me put it that way: they will not be flight to safety for long.

If we keep going on a bear market, uh, do you think arc etfs will see a bounce dude nothing's gon na bounce until j power, inflation u-turns? Oh my gosh dude, oh, come on man. Okay, fed speaks coming out, kashgari neil kashgari literally just said quote: we don't know how many interest rate hikes it will take. Damn it that's the kind of stuff now people are gon na go oh crap, you're saying it's gon na have to be worse. Yeah seriously.

Wait when they raise rates a half percent, you think businesses and consumers are gon na stop spending money come on. Man come on man, everyone's making fun of me for having sold okay. I am the butt of everybody's joke and, and it hurts right now, it hurts but um, i'm tired of listening to what other creators are telling me to do. F them uh, okay, so uh apple 3.4, good stability on apple still, that's very important and a firm went back positive, good, good, good, good, uh, docusign.

Okay, we got we're gon na hit the news too docusign 110. I mean that smashed its temporary floor over here. At the 130s it got it got bad that is bad uh spy is, is actually worse right. Now, it's down uh 0.6 right now.

Look at that trend down this. This consolidation means we're going to end up breaking to one of these lines. We listen. I get nervous when we start breaking this like officially, we broke it on monday, but we did not get a full hour candlestick below this line.

Okay, write it down folks write it down the 4 26 88 line if we get a full candlestick under 4, 26. 88 on the spy, i get more nervous and i don't even know how much more nervous i can get uh, okay, uh alibaba down one percent - i mean it's. It's also been on this dramatic downtrend here. I i really think it's it's just shocking, though, how much? How much neo is falling? I i look at this candlestick.

I mean it's, it's it's worse than ever i mean we have. We haven't seen neo at this price, since what like november of 2020 no like uh, actually wait yeah. Here we go 19 august of 2020 and you got you had a year and a half for gains are gone. Look at that by the dips getting shaken out on hood already, let's see matapor ten percent gosh, it's terrible! Okay lucid's got a little short-term uptrend here.

How does shift go down another five percent end phase 4.5 wow uh, wow, wow? Okay, all right, we got ta, we got ta, look at a little bit more news here. Usually i end the live stream around this time, but i i got ta look at the news. Oh my gosh. I don't really want to, though, that kashkari update, i don't like, because that's that's also that kashkari update is also uh uh.