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As of this morning, Bitcoin is up 151% year to date, the coin of Bit started the year at just $318 billion and is now at 814 billion. That's a jump of about 496 billion and in fact, there's more than a handful of entire European countries that have annual Gdps that are less than the 496 billion that Bitcoin jumped this year you got Denmark Romania Finland the Czech Republic Portugal so on and so forth. And in fact Bitcoin has just officially passed the market cap of Bur sure haway which I'm sure Charlie Munger would be rolling over in his grave about this. he said Bitcoin will go to zero and was rat poison.
In any case, rest in peace Mr Charlie Munger you can't be right on everything but in this video I Want to explain three things: number one, why people are panick buying Bitcoin including why a major Bank just came out and said they see Bitcoin reaching $150,000 Number two, what technical Trend suggest is going to happen next and number three: how to potentially make some Moola off these Trends We're going to cover our favorite crypto plays and specifically Crypto Miner Mara and an option idea on Mara to play, which is going to be especially helpful if you have a smaller account and want to leverage that. Smaller account options give you a lot more potential than stocks do and we're going to show exactly how to set that up. Let's get to work and the only thing I ask in return for all of the work that goes into making a video like this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe. Okay, so why is Bitcoin surging so much? The first reason is that it's expected that Regulators will soon approve the first spot Bitcoin Exchange traded Fund From Coindesk quote, the SEC is widely expected to green light one or more spot ETFs early next year with Bloomberg analysts putting the probability of an approval in January at 90% And There's currently 13 major companies with pending applications for a Bitcoin ETF.
Some major ones include: Black Rock Bitwise, Fidelity Wisdom Tree Invesco Arc Invest. Now this Catalyst of course, has been talked about for a long time, but why is it such a big deal? Well, it's such a big deal because an SEC approved spot ETF that allows investors to directly purchase Bitcoin and other potential futur cryptocurrencies will go a long way in legitimizing the cryptocurrency, but also providing tons and tons of fresh Capital as investment managers will be able to easily allocate part of their clients's portfolio to crypto, and Bitcoin being the Top Dog most trusted cryptocurrency, it's going to create a lot of demand for the bit of coin. the coin of bit as some would say or L coin bit as they say in France Second reason: Adoption: Despite Bitcoin's brutal crypto winter it had last year, and despite crypto haters pushing a crypto is Dead Forever Narrative like they always do well, while the truth is that growing adoption continues to be the norm, President Buelli of El Salvador famously put some of his country's money into Bitcoin and made Bitcoin an official legal tender in the country. and he got destroyed by analysts this last crypto winter saying that he scammed El Salvador For example, in July 2022 analyst Steve Hanks said quote today El Salvador is going down like a lead balloon thanks to Pres Buou. Kell's Bitcoin gamble El Salvador ranks number one in Count's most likely to default on its debt according to Visual Capitalist and President Buelli retweeted that today with a cup of milk trying to say hey, this aged like spoiled milk since bitcoin price is surgeon and they already got a couple million in profit on their massive stockpile which quite frankly is going to go up a lot more if this goes above the price they bought it at, which is in the ' 40s. But this is exactly how the game is played right. If you find any asset that you like, people are going to do everything in their power to make sure that you sell that asset during a bare market and during a bull market, they're going to do everything in their power to make sure that you buy more and you f into that asset at all-time highs. That is how the game's played.
You accelerate the current Trend you convince people that they have to sell, they have to buy and you keep rotating market after market after market because that's how you make a ton of money. Now don't get me wrong, I'm a Believer in Bitcoin But I Look at things from a trading perspective: Why do we as retail Traders Have to guess on what assets are going to succeed and fail when we can just play the overall Trends and milk each of the trends in one way or the other. Why? If you believe in an asset and you also believe it's going to go down in the short term, can you not bet against that asset and profit? Why? When it's dipped, can't you? can you not buy the dip and make a profit on the way up? The reason you can't is because there's a lot of money trying to convince you that it's wrong to play trends that you have to buy and hold. Even if that doesn't make you any money for years and years and years.
The fact of the matter is that if you bought Bitcoin 20 months ago, you are now at around break. Even buy and holding good assets is fine. It's a great strategy if you have four or five 6, 7even 8, 9, 10 years. but the part of your portfolio that you're using to trade, the one that wants to actually make aggressive moves.
Well, that part shouldn't be just sitting in areas that won't break even for years. If you bought Bitcoin 20 months ago, you are now at around Break Even But if you played the move on the way down and on the way up, you didn't need to play it anywhere near perfectly and and you still would have outperformed Just Buy and Holding right now in terms of adoption. There's also speculation that Argentina's new president Malay will give Bitcoin legal status as well, which could be a potential Catalyst But I really want to take you over to why? Alliance Bernstein A major and respected Investment Bank Financial Services Company sees Bitcoin reaching 150k. So they posted this chart and they say that Bitcoin's price could be explained by historical cycles and listen to their argument. You go through periods of breakouts in green, hype in blue, Corrections in red and accumulation in yellow and every time you have a having you start the cycle over again. Now if you look at 2022, we have the massive correction, then we have the massive accumulation period and next up we have the having in April 2024. After historical having, you tend to get breakouts which in this case would mean a breakout past all-time Highs at 68789 and using historical Trend momentum and pushing that forward Alliance Bernstein sees this breaking out to $150,000 in the coming cycle before the next correction. Now of course, the next correction.
Once it comes, people will again go all across the media and force you to believe that Bitcoin is hot garbage and we'll never go up again and we'll go to zero. And the correction: We'll see many, many people who are buying Bitcoin now lose all of their their money because they are being told right now that the only way to play Bitcoin is to buy now that we're at new highs and then the media will tell them you cannot sell this ever until it goes back down to like 20,000 Then they're going to be like oh sorry, you should sell it now Bitcoin is a scam. That's how the Psyo plays right and a lot of people they refuse to think for themselves because it's really, really offensive to them. They're like, wait, I have to make my decisions on something that the media doesn't agree with what that's like.
So unfair. The media has my back, They're out for me, they're not out for themselves. But anyways, Alliance Bernstein Here is saying the coming opportunity right now is in the run into 2024 and 2025, and their estimates actually show this peaking in mid 2025. Quote: A new Bull Run would be mostly driven by institutional inflows brought by Bitcoin ETFs The analyst noted We Believe early flows could be slower and the buildup could be more gradual.
and post having is when ETF flows, momentum continue to build, leading to a cycle peak in 2025 and not 2024. The analyst over at Alliance Bernstein wrote okay. so the prevailing narrative right now on the coin of bit is okay. these ETFs are going to get approved and that means more and more Capital will be available for Bitcoin in the coming years and thus you should front run Bitcoin now and that is the narrative that is being traded on.
But what does the chart say? Well, we've now broken well over our red directional SMA line. But the key levels we've broken are 2017 Bull Market Highs at just under 20K 2021, support at just under 30k and the next level to break is failed recovery Heights of March 2022 that are at 47,6 bucks in change. then you've got your moonshot to the 60s which is the region right before the new all-time highs. Now here's the thing very seldomly in Bitcoin history have you had such huge, inconsistent uptrends without a new breakout. Sure, it's happened in 2019, you had a big rally without a new breakout. But when you're in a situation like Bitcoin's in, right now where you have some of the worst fud out of the way in terms of cryptocurrency failures in terms of big Brokers and SP SPF going down and all that kind of stuff at the same time where you have big catalysts coming up in terms of ETF adoption and at the same time where you have a long track record of Bitcoin succeed in Well, all of a sudden you're in a situation where it's hard to imagine that this momentum doesn't have at least a little bit more run to it. Keep in mind though. and I think this is what a lot of people are looking out right now.
But what tends to happen is when you have a big institutional adoption Catalyst you'll get big front runs and the price will go up huge and then drop when the approval actually happens. In this case, probably going to happen January or February even March 2024 And then what happens is once that approval happens, you start getting those Bitcoin ETFs out. Well, all of a sudden people sell that news, they buy the rumor, they sell the news, and they lock. tons of profit.
And then all of a sudden Bitcoin starts tanking. Once it tanks to a new support level, then you start seeing a consolidation period where it slowly tanks, and then all of a sudden you get to a clear, effective support. and then you start building right off that. And that is when you get the run to a new breakout, something similar to what Alliance Bernstein is predicting.
So my thought process. well, I think this has more to run. It will probably break out past previous field recovery Heights but it's going to take a lot more for it to break out past that you're going to likely see the selloff and consolidation period happen once we've gone through that high 40s region and then that level at that level, markets will decide whether to break it out again and rebound into the 60s and push towards all-time highs. So that is what we're looking at right now.
We like. We like to see proof of course and not promises. We want to make sure that it not only sells off and breathes, but it can bounce off that selloff period phase. Okay, let's talk about the top stock plays on Bitcoin.
The coin of Bit and that's got to be Mara. So Mara Lovely. Mara A key Bitcoin minor and one of our top plays during the Crypto craze a couple years ago has been on a hero's journey a of Heroes to breaking out past previous Summer Heights Now there's two Dynamics to why Mara is running: Number one is because she has a ton of Bitcoin on her balance sheet. So as Bitcoin's price appreciates, so does hurts. But number two, as Bitcoin demand increases, the demand for Bitcoin miners does as well. Of course, Bitcoin miners have more competition when all of a sudden more and more Bitcoin miners are incentivized to join the field. but Mara has invested so much in infrastructure that she has a huge advantage and I think she's going to destroy the competition. especially in these early days where demand is starting to come back and Supply is just starting to come back.
Now where is Mar going next? Well, as we mentioned, Trends in the current developing Market Thesa suggests that Bitcoin is going to continue rallying into January The warry of Jan and current momentum has been a lot more paced and slower than the summer rally. which means Mora itself looks Prime to break out past summer. Heights If that thesis plays out and we push towards a break of those. Summer Heights Well, how can you play this while buying the shares and riding the trend is one way, but another way to play Mara is with options.
Charlie I Don't like options. They look too complicated and options are optional. Please, please don't tell me about options. Well, trust me folks, they really aren't that complicated and quite frankly, they shouldn't be optional.
The reason that you'll want to consider using options is because they leverage your buying power to the tune of 5 10, 15, 20x if you do them correctly. For example, the current Mara Trend suggests a breakout of previous Highs at $19.88 and a way to play that with options is to buy January 12th, 2024 expiring calls at a strike price of 20 bucks. Why 20 bucks? Why not $17.50 or6 $1 Don't we want calls that are going to expire in the money? Well, the farther out of the money you go, the farther away from the current price you go with your strike price, the cheaper the contract gets. And who cares if it expires in the money or not, you just want the price of the contract to go up and then you can dump it before expiration.
The people that say you have to wait till expiration are probably working for the market makers or something because they're stupid. If you buy the 20 strike calls and an Ask of say 105, you get them for less than half of what you would have bought the at the money calls at a strike price of 15. But here's the kicker if you're comparing options to shares. if you have about $1,000 to put towards a bullish bet on Mara Well, how many shares does that buy you? At 15 bucks a share, it buys you about 64 shares.
That's not going to do you too much even if Mara goes up 50% But if you decide to buy this option instead, the per share price is $15 So you get roughly 15 times the buying power by buying the options when you consider other Dynamics In terms of how fast options move, for every $1 up, it's a little bit less. But as you get closer to in the money, your leveraging power is insane. Say you buy 10 coals which is buying the coverage for 1,000 shares, That's going to cost you about 1,50 bucks. So if you see Mar going up, but you only have about 1,000 bucks, would you rather spend $1,000 to buy about 65 shares of Mara Or would you rather spend $1 1,50 to buy options allowing you to buy 1,000 shares of coverage of Mara AKA 10 call options Obviously the options would make more sense because you're benefiting from a th000 shares instead of just about 64 65 shares. Now the of this of course is that if you're wrong and Mara dumps into the New Year, your contracts might end up expiring worthless. but at the same time, you can use risk management to mitigate your degree of losses. Now are you confused about this? Well, no problem at all. We actually just launched our ZIP Trader Options program which is 50% off for our grand Opening and you can join with coupon code launch 50 and the link is down below.
But essentially the play: I See here is those January 12th expiring calls at a strike of 20. Or if you want to be a bit more risk averse and give it another week, you can do the January 19th calls. But the downside of that is of course you have to pay a bit more for those contracts because you got that extra week so you got to balance all those factors there. Anyways, folks, let us know what you think down below is: Bitcoin going to continue rallying? Is Mar going to be a big benefactor of that? How are you playing this current Trend Let us know in the comment section down below we love hearing from you.
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